Haiti at a Crossroads: An Analysis of the Drivers Behind Haiti's Political Crisis

This May 2019 IJDH report analyzes the drivers of the escalating political crisis that repeatedly paralyzed Haiti. Immediate triggers were the July 2018 announcement of fuel price increases of 38 to 51 percent required by the IMF, the viral PetroCaribe accountability campaign over an estimated 3.8 billion dollars in missing funds, and the February 2019 arrest and unlawful release of seven heavily armed foreign mercenaries intercepted outside the Central Bank. During ten days of protests in February 2019, at least 34 people died and over 100 were injured.

Medium-term drivers include President Jovenel Moise's lack of popular mandate, elected with only about 600,000 votes on roughly 20 percent turnout, patronage-driven governance, a record 89.6 million dollar budget deficit, 17 percent inflation, a gourde that lost 37 percent of its value in a year, and obstruction of PetroCaribe investigations at legislative, executive and judicial levels. Long-term drivers include flawed elections, a dysfunctional justice system and impoverishing domestic and foreign economic policies. The report urges the international community to support Haitian-led systemic reform rather than short-term stability.