Northern Development Corridor, Haiti Urban Development and Climate Change Study

[page 1] À D lo M er Ne M. Ave TS w Ï Æ a = RAR use / 4288 \ 4 F. m2, + AR — rs Dr. É " L | ÉA SA Son vo à | Mic 4 ol Northern Development | Ps 1). ie ni wCX Corridor, Haïti ; © met + ‘Em 4 Re et b 1 Urban Development and Climate ne. $ 2 YA, VERT ta SN LS D EE 2 November 2014 = nn HS 0 ù 5 RNA À 44 Environmental Resources Management sg = RSÉNAER SR Dir ER Washington D.C. + ss de — NU DU 20006 > : CE PR dl HN Er, Fa ? à Pérches" HE y WWW.erm.com ds EMERGING {| SA) . SUSTAINABLE | D Ÿ CITIES NX Initiative ERM [page 2] TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES il 5. FUTURE GROWTH PROJECTIONS 35 8. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: À LIST OF TABLES iv 5.1 Future Development Projects 35 SMART GROWTH SCENARIO 31 LIST OF APPENDICES v 5.2 Population and Demographics 35 8.1 Study Focus 31 Acknowledgements vii 5.3 Urban Area Needs 38 8.2 Smart Development Scenario 31 1. INTRODUCTION 1 6. GEOSPATIAL MODEL 40 83 Challenges to be Addressed 93 1.1 Background and ESCI 1 6.1 Introduction 40 3. BIBLIOGRAPHY 35 1.2 ESClin Haiti 1 6.2 The Geospatial Modelling Process 40 13 This Report 3 6.3 Modelling for the NDC 41 2. METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH 4 6.4 Restriction Factors Sub-Model 42 2.1 Methodology for the Risk and Urban Studies 4 6.5 Attractions Factors Sub-Model 45 2.2 Study Area 4 6.6 Future Development Projects Sub-Model 48 2.3 Building on Key Planning Efforts 5 6.7 Suitability Analysis 48 3. BASELINE CONDITIONS 9 7. DEVELOPMENT OF A SUSTAINABLE GROWTH 3.1 Current Study Area 9 SCENARIO 51 3.2 Current and Historical Land Cover 13 71 Land Suitability 51 3.3 Physical, Biological and Hydrological Baselines 7.2. Densification 53 16 7.3 Capacity of Existing Townships 55 3.4 Cultural Heritage 19 7.4 Capacity in Trou-du-Nord 57 3.5 Urban, Commercial and Infrastructure 19 7.5 Capacity in Limonade 62 4. HAZARD AND RISK ASSESSMENT STUDIES 21 7.6 Capacity in Terrier Rouge 66 4.1 Prioritized Hazards 21 7.7 Capacity in Bord de Mer de Limonade 70 4.2 Methodology 22 7.8 Capacity in Caracol 72 4.3 Climate Change Projections 22 7.9 Capacity in Jacquezy 75 4.4 Hazard Profiles 24 7.10 The Neighborhood of the Caracol Industrial 4.5 Vulnerability Assessment 31 Park 7 4.6 _Loss Estimation 32 7.11 The Three Bays Marine Park 81 7.12 Risk Reduction Recommendations 84 “+ ##% GIDB Lo NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI i ET) qui ERM [page 3] LIST OF FIGURES Figure 19 — Coastal flooding with climate change Figure 36 - Attraction factors: Development Projects 48 Figure 1 - Area of study in Haiti’s geographic context 1 projections for a 50-year return period 26 Figure 37 - Land Suitability Model Based on . Figure 20 — Key watersheds in the study area 27 Attractions and Restrictions 50 Figure 2 — Area of Study 4 . . . Figure 21 - Inland flood hazard map with climate Figure 38 — Optimized land use map 52 Figure 3 - Composite of some of the mapping change 50 vear return period 28 developed by the AIA Study (Illustrative Only) 6 g L p Figure 39 - Examples of multi-dwelling and raised . . . Figure 22 — Drought susceptible areas in Haiti as dwellings presented at the Zorange Expo 54 Figure 4 - Extract of the CIAT Strategic Plan showing resented by NATHAT, 2012 29 four poles of economic attraction that would result P: y / Figure 40 - Detail of elements analyzed for each one of from the implementation of two new urban centres Figure 23 — Monthly variation in water demand and the townships in the study area. 56 i ilabilit t conditi 30 (Champin and Carrefour Chevry) 8 availability (current conditions) Figure 41 - Main land uses identified in the township Figure 5 — Human settlements in the NDC 9 Figure 24 - Monthly variation in water demand and of Trou-du-Nord. 57 Figure 6 - Typical hamlet in the NDC area. (Paulette) 10 dame) (projection for 2040 including climate 30 Figure 42 - Trou du Nord - Areas selected for fi 7- Typical t hi in the NDC Terri g calculating the building density. 59 Igure 7 - ypica! townshlp In ne area (Terrier Figure 25 - Distribution of block boundaries in the ; Rouge) 10 study area 31 Figure 43 — Trou-du-Nord - Current land uses, areas for fi 8- Tyical road-side settl t 11 d densification within the urban setting and proposed gure 8 - lypica' rogd'side settlements Figure 26 - Distribution and Exposure Values of expansion areas. 61 i - i Residential Buildings in the stud 32 gore 9 Rai negnborhood development u esidential Buildings in the study area Figure 44 - Main land uses identified in the township everoped Dy Figure 27 - Example of vulnerability function for of Limonade 62 i - i i Coastal Flood Hazard for l i tructure 33 pu eo Footprint growth of urban settlements r, oastal Flood Hazard for low rise masonry structure Figure 45 - Limonade - Areas selected for calculating Figure 28 - Risk Map: Average Annualized Loss for the building density 63 i - ic i i Earthquake Hazard, Residential 33 re 11 - Evolution of a housing development in me, arthquake Hazard, Residentiai Figure 46 - Limonade - Current land uses, areas for area Figure 29 - Development projects 35 densification within the urban setting and proposed Figure 12 - Land Use for 1986 and 2010 for the NDC 14 Figure 30 - Average annual growth of total population expansion areas. 65 Figure 3.2-2 Land Use in 1986 14 37 Figure 47 - Main land uses identified in the township . . ; ; Le pue of Terrier Rouge 66 Figure 14 - Urban footprint growth 1986-2010-2013 Figure 31 - Urbanization rate in the municipalities of for key urban areas 15 the study area 37 Figure 48 - Terrier Rouge - Areas selected for Iculating the building densit 67 Figure 15 - Urban intensities in 2010 16 Figure 32 - Topics and elements considered to be carcurating ne Duiiding density . . logical h h restrictions for development 42 Figure 49 - Terrier Rouge - Current land uses, areas for Figure 16 - Main eco ogical system on the Northern ; ue densification within the urban setting and proposed Development Corridor 18 Figure 33 - Map of the restrictions sub-model: : ; . ae expansion areas 69 Fi 17 - Cul I heri 19 composite of maximum restrictions 44 igure 17 - Cultural heritage y : : Figure 50 - Main land uses identified in the township . babilistic seismic h d Figure 34 - Topics and elements considered to be of Bord de Mer de Limonade 70 ue nt ne P To. Me pe A7. azar re for d attractions for development 45 probability in 50 years, i.e. -year return perio! . LA pilote. 24 Figure 35 - Map of the attractions sub-model: Figure 51 - A pilotis supported house developed for ; . . the Zorange Housing Expo 71 composite of maximum attractiveness factors 47 “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI ï t<C IL ERM [page 4] Figure 52 - Main land uses identified in the township of Caracol 72 Figure 53 - Main land uses identified in the township of Jacquezy 75 Figure 54 - The ‘neighborhood” of the Caracol Industrial Park 78 Figure 55 - Areas that should be considered for future development 79 Figure 56 - Preferred locations for consolidating new urban settlements in the PIC area 80 Figure 57 - Creating a planned, integrated community with the PIC as pivot. 81 Figure 58 - Preemptive zoning classes proposed for the Three Bays Marine Park 83 Figure 59 - Framework for Relative Risk Evaluation 84 Figure 60 - Standardizing loss damage recurrence comparison for the study area 85 Figure 61 - Smart Development Scenario for Haïti's Northern Development Corridor 92 “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI iii t<C IL ERM [page 5] LIST OF TABLES Table 17 - Total area and current land use distribution Table 31 - Jacquezy - Urban land uses inside and Table 1 - Land use change observed between 1986 in the township of Limonade 62 puide the high risk flood areas, and ‘true suaiable and 2010 in the study area 14 Table 18 - Limonade - Urban land uses inside and ° Table 2 — Haitian stakeholders 22 outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available Table 32 - Jacquezy : Distribution of urban land uses land. 63 under a ‘good practice’ scenario 76 Table 3 — Summary of Climate Change Projections fo “ y of ci Le g ections for Table 19 - Limonade - Capacity for residential Table 33 - Total areas of expansion that would be the 20405 for Northern Haiti 23 en : u . developments inside the urban setting and areas required to accomodate the housing demand expected Table 4 - Coastal flooding projections (including for required for expansion in the 2040 fast growth by 2040 in the ‘fast’ population growth scenario 77 climate change to 2040, 26 id 64 g ) scenario Table 34 - Comparison of Hazards for the study area85 Table 5 —Inland river flooding projections (including Table 20 - Total area and current land use distribution : us for climate change to 2040) 28 in the township of Terrier Rouge 66 Table 35— Summary of risk mitigation measures 90 Table 6 — Summary of water balance for the study Table 21 - Terrier Rouge - Urban land uses inside and area 30 outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available Table 7 - Summary of Impacts and Loss Estimates by land. 67 Hazard 34 Table 22 - Terrier Rouge - Capacity for residential Table 8 - Northern Region Population and Growth develop ments inside the urban setting and areas ue required for expansion in the 2040 fast growth Projections (source AIA Study) 36 k scenario 68 Table 3 - Place of residence of PIC workers 37 Table 23 - Total area and current land use distribution Table 10 - Projections of the population base - in the township of Bord de Mer de Limonade 70 ie 1 th 38 scenarios of slow grow Table 24 - Bord de Mer de Limonade - Urban land uses Table 11 - Projections of the population base - inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ scenarios of High growth 39 available land. 71 Table 12 - Summary of the main restriction factors 43 Table 25 - Bord de Mer de Limonade - Capacity for Table 13 - Summary of the main attraction factors 46 residential developments inside the urban setting 72 Table 26 - Bord de Mer de Li de - Distributi Table 14 - Total area and current land use distribution urban land ee un deu € Oud ractice' romane cf 73 in the township of Trou-du-Nord 58 good p ° Table 27 - Total d t land use distributi Table 15 - Trou-du-Nord - Urban land uses inside and the Ounshe Care ANA USE 'SENDU 3 outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available p land. 58 Table 28 - Caracol - Urban land uses inside and outside Table 16 - Trou du Nord - Capacity for residential the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. 73 developments inside the urban setting and areas Table 29 - Caracol - Capacity for residential required for expansion in the 2040 fast growth developments inside the urban setting 74 Scenano 59 Table 30 - Total area and current land use distribution in the township of Jacquezy 75 “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI iv t<C IL ERM [page 6] LIST OF APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: Individual GIS Maps for the Ecological System APPENDIX 2: Individual GIS Maps for Urban and Infrastructure Development APPENDIX 3: Climate Studies by the University of West Indies APPENDIX 4: Hazard Profiles APPENDIX 5: Characteristics of Assets Exposed APPENDKX 6: Impacts and Losses APPENDIX 7: Restrictions Maps APPENDIX 8: Attractions Maps NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI v t<C IL ERM [page 7] ACRONYMS EMERGING + a SUSTAINABLE “IDB Lo NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI vi IL ERM [page 8] ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report has been prepared by Environmental Resources Management on behalf of the Inter- American Development Bank (the Bank)'s Emerging and Sustainable Cities Initiative (ESCI). The contributions and support of the following are acknowledged: NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI vii E< IL ERM [page 9] 1. INTRODUCTION to negative environmental, social, and economic protected or established and vulnerability to impacts. Municipal policy makers usually lack natural disaster and the effects of climate change 1.1 Background and ESCI adequate data and analysis to inform the design of reduced. Anticipatory planning can also help reduce policies that help promote growth in a sustainable greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) as a major factor Cities and urban areas play a key role in the way. In many cases, the implications for the affecting climate change. economy of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), municipal budget in terms of financing both through opportunities generated (such as infrastructure development and operation costs 1.2 ESClin Haiti diffusion of expertize and innovation, concentration have not been clarified in newly urbanized areas. nu . of specialized labor, and provision of educational, Additionally, the environmental impacts of city Haiti s Northern Development Corridor (NDC) (see cultural, and recreational services), and the growth are often not fully considered. Areas for Figure 1) presents a special case for the ESCI that associated challenges such as poverty created by in- conservation and aquifer recharge need to be requires flexibility in the implementation of the migration and the increasing and often unsatisfied demands for urban and social services, decent housing conditions, employment and opportunities Atlantie Ocean es, Area of Study to generate income. Overcoming these challenges : s means that cities and urban areas require a # 76 A comprehensive approach that enables them to N EL de Le ' develop sustainably and simultaneously improve Ni "LA 2e their citizens’ quality of life. oo , # . # SX 4 AS ä une D Vies As a response to this situation and in light of à. 17%, "Mens continuing urbanization process in the LAC region, Ra à HIER the Inter-American Development Bank (the Bank) . \ FAN 4 launched its Emerging and Sustainable Cities LEA A Ÿ 2] Initiative (ESCI). The purpose of this Initiative is to Golfe'de laG Ÿ contribute to the improvement of the quality of life have , * « in LAC's cities in terms of environmental, urban, and TP S due fiscal sustainability. Through the ESCI, the Bank * «à combines the expertise of its different sector PES F. departments in the formulation of comprehensive <f action plans designed to facilitate sustainable city EL 2 ) planning. It leverages its capacities as the leading ’ + ré ns RE » source of development financing for the region and Te 7 AÉÈTE : rat Le applies its long experience in supporting the ven \ 30 orne. L SA f countries of LAC. ù } = LR on D g : . due caribbe, | The ESCI methodology aims to provide decision RE Le Le. makers with the tools, data andinitial frameworks * L for managing urban growth and territorial Figure 1 - Area of study in Haïti’s geographic context expansion. Formal and informal growth often leads == EMERGING Lo 6 —> SUSTAINABLE & NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 1 EX se FIDB ERM [page 10] initiative’s methodology. In mid-2013, ESCI In partnership with strategic actors in Haiti, such as implementation of four baseline studies: launched the implementation of an adapted version the Interministerial Committee for Territorial of its methodology in Haiti's Northern Corridor, Planning (CIAT) and the Ministry of Economy and 1. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Natural currently home to approximately 500,000 people in Finance, ESCI is working to help mitigate urban Hazards. The assessment focuses on four risk the country’s Nord and Nord-Est departments. The development impacts and catalyze interdisciplinary categories — flooding (inland and coastal); NDC includes the communes closest to the Caracol planning processes in Northern Haïti. ESCI's seismicity; hurricanes; and drought — and using Industrial Park (PIC), a flagship economic ultimate goal for the NDC is: to deliver site- and newly developed digital terrain models, development project that may bring up to 25,000 city-specific plans for urban and infrastructure includes a probabilistic modeling of their new jobs to the region in the next few years, development in the municipalities closest to the impact on the region’s natural and urban unlocking rapid demographic and urban growth and PIC, namely Limonade, Trou-du-Nord, Terrier landscapes and an estimation of impacts on putting pressure on the region's services and Rouge and Caracol. To achieve this goal, ESCl's existing infrastructure. resources. tailored approach in Haïti involves the 2. Urban Growth Study. This study presents multi- horizon projections of urban and demographic growth with two basic scenarios (rapid versus slow) and their respective spatial distribution and impact on existing ecological and urban assets. The growth models include the potential spatial and growth impacts of new developments (e.g., port upgrades in Cap Haïtien) on the four communes’ area of influence. 3. Sustainable Mobility Plan. The plan will engage in unprecedented data collection exercises in : Northern Haiti, including an origin and SE é À nos) à ue Ge destination survey and counts. Based on this D EE — Cr 3 - Se data, the Plan will include demand projections EE ec É R nS SS o and draw recommendations for priority En A mobility projects, such as transport hub Re ne LS : Res re infrastructure, multimodal options, and 7. F - bib ch a %. DRE a 5 improved services for PIC workers. The . ——— A ee geographic focus is threefold: the PIC, the 3 Se S ne ——— surrounding communes, and Route National 6. LE ; = 4. Living Conditions Survey. There are = ol considerable gaps in social and economic EE d LES : , < Here information, especially with regard to wages EE + He and labor, health and education levels, access L to services, disaster preparedness, etc. In order > EMERGING Là Lo Le SUSTAINABLE UZ NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 2 EX EU “IDB ERM [page 11] to develop planning strategies and instruments surrounding communes with new regional hubs deliverables such as a GIS database. based on up-to-date and reliable information, such as an upgraded port in Cap-Haïtien. ESCI will implement a complete household This report presents the results of the two studies survey in the urban and rural areas of 1.3 This Report (collectively referred to as the ESCI Growth Study) Limonade, Terrier Rouge, Trou-du-Nord, and . undertaken and importantly, the analysis, findings Caracol, and gather basic social and Environmental Resources Management, Inc (ERM) and recommendations have been combined to seek demographic information as well as select was engaged by ESCI to undertake the first two to address the complex question of where and how information on public opinion. The ultimate studies for the NDC: the Vulnerability and Risk should urban development occur in the NDC given goal is to develop a baseline of information Assessment of Natural Hazards (Risk Study) and the different dynamics and forces that will shape about the households adjacent to the PIC. Urban Growth Study (Urban Study). These two population growth and migration in the area. This studies build upon the work and methodologies report is intended to provide planning tools and Building on the results, community feedback, and ERM has used and developed in conjunction with insights, and a building block upon which more recommendations from each of these studies, ESCI the ESCI team for similar studies in Cochabamba, prescriptive plans and planning policies can be will provide and socialize four site- and city-specific Bolivia and Managua, Nicaragua. This report developed, as well as to help guide decisions about urban development plans for Limonade, Terrier presents the consolidated findings of the study, and accommodating and influencing future growth. Rouge, Trou-du-Nord and Caracol. The plans will further details and information are contained in also build on previous planning exercises by local both the referenced appendices and supporting partners such as the CIAT, which have sketched a regional vision for the NDC but require local specificity and detail and a more thorough consideration of future development alternatives. This dual approach — to develop a foundation for planning based on detailed studies, as well as to build on relevant, past efforts — will ensure that the = four urban plans help guide Haïitian stakeholders Er SP EP DE er HR RUSREESE — and their domestic and international partners in key » , urban development areas for the NDC. ESC/’s work : will include proposed interventions at a pre- Re TT : CC investment level, so as to facilitate swift action nee" 2 according to local priorities. 3 Em 8 pl ss pme =— - These proposals touch on areas such as mixed-use = > < development strategies, design-driven conservation 2 : of landscape and resources, more resilient siting proposals for topics such as housing, and recommendations for transportation infrastructure at both the commune and regional levels, including mobility options to connect the PIC and its Caracol!ndustrial Park EMERGING + Lo a SUSTAÎNABLE 5 IDB \ NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 3 tnitiative ERM [page 12] 2. METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH iv. Geospatial land suitability modelling using 2.2 Study Area the baseline conditions and future projections . 2.1 Methodology for the Risk and Urban to identify land potentially suitable for The sure sn 1 sou nique 2 ose Studies development, which is presented in Section 6, an area of 49,391 hectares and it is located along and also includes stakeholder feedback as the Atlantic Ocean, in close proximity to the cities The two studies presented in this report (Risk and part of an engagement workshop held for the of Cap Haïtien to the West, and Fort Liberté to the Urban Studies), while having clear and defined project. East, partially covering the North and Northeast objectives individually, also have significant Departments. Geographically, the area of study is overlaps and connections to each other. The v. Development of a sustainable growth located at the heart of the territory known by methodology used illustrates the combined scenario for the study area, considering both Haitians as the Plains du Nord, the coastal plateau approach taken that captures the key elements of slow and fast growth, presented in Section 7. where the Massif du Nord mountainous chain the individual studies and also the respective meets the Atlantic Ocean. connections: vi. Presentation of key conclusions and recommendations, contained in Section 8. The delineation of the study area was defined by i. Development and understanding of current baseline conditions of current and known conditions in the study area using: + readily available information from key FU stakeholders, covering physical, = biological, hydrological and urban à systems; + Supplementing this information with SE defined studies and assessments / comprising current and historical land cover assessments; $ Section 3 of this report presents the results of Éd the baseline assessments. 8 ii. The baseline is further supplemented by the ë hazard and risk assessment studies, and è these are detailed in Section 4. ii. Identifying and defining future growth and development considerations including future population growth projections, future hazard and risk considerations when accounting for climate change projections and future development projects. This is presented in Figure 2 — Area of Study Section 5. 46 SUSTAINABLE UZ NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 4 LX EU FIDB ERM [page 13] consideration of the following factors: 2.3 Building on Key Planning Efforts There are a number of areas in which the ESCI Growth Study can contribute to the AIA Study and + The presence of the Route National (RNG6), the The NDC has been the subject of a number of the CIAT Strategic Plan, and further commentary on Park Industriel du Caracol (PIC) and their important planning efforts conducted recently. This this is provided below. areas of influence; ESCI Growth Study does not seek to replace or ° The proposed development projects being supersede these other studies, but rather to build 2.3.1 AIA Study planned in the NDC; upon and contribute to them. The two key planning he AIA Study is divided in th ° __ The proposed upgrade and expansion of the studies of interest are: The AIA Study N fe € N three Éaoral” Cap Haïtien seaport: comprising in the irst vo ume a regiona + Watersheds, catchment areas and natural ° The Cap Haïtien-Ouanaminthe Development comprehensive plan; in the second urban growth features: and Corridor Regional Comprehensive Plan, AIA plans for the different municipalities; and in the «Municipal Boundaries Legacy (referred to hereinafter as the AIA third are detailed analyses by sectors (or ‘focus p ° Study). This was published in December 2012, areas’ as it refers to them), which add up to a The study area comprises the key towns of following a year of work carried out by the cumulative impact assessment report that is the Limonade, Trou-du-Nord, Caracol and Terrier American Institute of Architects nonprofit basis of both the regional comprehensive plan, and Rouge. The study area boundaries have been foundation, AIA Legacy, with funds from the the urban growth area plans. Key aspects of this defined based upon the following: IDB and the United States Agency for work include: International Development. The study was ° The main core of the study area is to be NDC carried out in close interaction with the CIAT + ltpresentsa framewark for how future and the PIC along RN6 given the socio- and the Technical Execution Unit of Economy devepment of the region joue nus economic development and growth being and Finance. de udine (i) t 1e principles that should guide promoted as a result of the construction of evelopment mn terms of natural resources, this corridor: ° The Plan d'Aménagement du Nord / Nord- economic growth, infrastructure support and e The southern and eastern boundaries are Est: Couloir Cap — Ouanaminthe, CIAT (the human development; () the levels of plan defined by the water catchment zoning: CIAT Strategic Plan). This strategic plan implementation, that is, the regional, + The west is defined by both the water produced by the CIAT is aimed at developing municipal and community levels, with clear catchment area of the Grande Rivière du Nord the Haïtian territory, and in this case the indications regarding ne roles end ï and the municipality of Limonade; and north, with greater regard for its natural responsibilities of sach; (ii) the mechanisms + The proposed Three Bays Marine Park will be resources, the risks and vulnerabilities it for implementation, including administrative taken as part of the study area and the Three faces, and the opportunities it offers. It measures such ës Zone end (iv) what the Bays Marine Park will define the northern comprises two documents, the first of which plan calls ‘supplemental measures, such as boundary, albeit the study has been limited to is titled Haïti Demain (Haiti Tomorrow) and community compacts, anchor investments, the coastline. offers a country-wide framework; the second, and others. titled La Boucle Artibonite (The Artibonite . . In delineating the study area, it is acknowledged Loop), defines the space and functionality ° Based de the diagnoses ananas caries that the urban areas of Cap Haïtien, Fort Liberté that ought to be developed in this area with es stthe ne def MUnEpe ie Sr ire and Ouanaminthe are important influencers some of the lowest natural risks of the plan leiterates or defines new, significant throughout the NDC, and these factors have been country and numerous conditions that could deveoprent ane st those sas which considered during the study. turn it into a major economic pole. should catalyze development aroun “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 5 EU GTS ERM [page 14] — > — qe se — urban and immediate areas of influence, # à 4 providing clear guidance on green and grey LR TE j * A, = D à : ÿ infrastructure, social services, road and HET US ) si a À. transport, housing and other land uses. The D &/ = Fu LSMEES ) 4 €? L à PT — PE * } plans include key data with regards to urban 2 = ne } ÿ À ED : growth, based on population projections and f.\ ES \ de SS LNEal f % Si housing and land demand. a — e The plan includes a proposal for a new a — 2 = a Ve) = == = development for 6,000 people, Caracol 4 Nouvelle, that is shown as a model of a SE ; sé planned, mixed use and environmentally VAL æ — D Ca sound settlement. The plan suggests that this =>, SE s TN, could serve as seed for additional settlement S . Le Ju an. : (e 3 Cf e È + Figure 3 provides a composite that illustrates some DE q e 3 ” of the elements and plans considered by the AIA EE ER ur) AS EN imvnus | Lu 2. ë ) Study/s regional comprehensive plan and the results = =— — Se 2 PES ee j jfi a — jo? Ô UT Le = { A of aggregating them There are four specific 7 S REA À re o 2 E 1 contributions that this ESCI Growth Study work will w— a le bre nee ? % = E \ bring in relation to the AIA Study. First, because the à 2 3 es me/ CNE 7 #2 regional comprehensive plan is a high-level, multi- $_ es pie: #] 2 F se Eu 4 2 $, Ls < sectorial, multi-institutional and multi-leveled à Ÿ LOIS ES: : L Ke £ à. à: instrument, it is not intended to provide detail on à ASIE A LA es PE + the spatial configuration of the region as a whole, E + ee = —— —— ; other than that which would result from the RSS 2 Os a iron mi irc: + process of settlement along RN6, and the local S— == Bus mune No IEDes © rimes sn er pes development processes of each municipality. The Figure 3 - Composite of some of the mapping developed by the AIA Study (Illustrative Only) AIA Study represents the process of settlement along RN6 as occurring mostly along the south side themselves and regionally as a result of their with limited or non-developed areas east and of the corridor and the local plans are focused on aggregation. west; the other, between Trou-du-Nord, the the urban areas only. This does not acknowledge PIC area and Terrier Rouge. development north of RN6 or the rural and e _Interms of spatial form and land intermediate areas where settlement may and is transformation, the plan suggests an area of + The plan then shifts to the local level, by likely to happen. This ESCI study will be contributing urban development the south side of RN6. means of offering local development plans for in this regard by including information from recent The plan seems to indicate that this area the eight municipalities that comprise their surveys and aerial imagery from the area, analyzing would in reality be formed of two separate area of study (the whole North and Northeast what would the actual and projected growth areas: one to the south east of Limonade, Region). These local plans focus on their patterns at the regional level be, and comparing = EMERGING + Lo NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 6 tnitiative ERM [page 15] them with the results of the AIA regional urbanization patterns that the region should exhibit orientations or guidelines for elaborating urban comprehensive plan. This will include not only the as a whole. development plans at the local level; and an P P Y P P main townships but also smaller villages or hamlets. investment plan. Lastly, each of the local development plans Secondly, the ESCI Growth Study will enhance the produced by the AIA Study offers a series of Important considerations from the CIAT Strategic AIA analysis of potential settlement areas by: elements associated to the growth process. Of Plan for the ESCI Growth Study include: Y P y 8 P y particular significance are the delineation of the + Introducing a larger number of restriction existing urban boundary, an approximation to the + The plan reads as being supported and variables (15-20 layers versus the AIA’s 7 extent of each municipality’s population growth, supportive on the results and the process of layers) as well as a larger number of and the areas where this should be accommodated. the AIA Study, and reiterates numerous attraction variables (5-10 versus 2). With the results from the ESCI Growth Study elements of the diagnosis. + _ Introduce greater resolution to the modeling, an assessment of the location of these ° ___Itoffers a series of guidelines on the areas geography of some these restrictions and areas will be offered. that ought to be developed at the local level attractions. and the criteria or principles that should be ° Application of a geo-spatial model to 23.2 CIAT Strategic Plan followed in each municipality. Because of its “eu the areas suitable for human The CIAT Strategic Plan comprises three elements, scope, it does not pue cerise he land settlement. under a 2012 — 2030 time horizon: a regional approximations tot 8 eograpf y or the an : . ; use patterns to which many of its propositions : : : diagnostic; a Plan d’Amenagement (layout plan), This enhancement will enable recommendations to . : . should translate. be provided that will either confirm, or suggest re- and a series of implementation measures. The The plan d d h orienting, of the results ofthe AIA re jonal regional diagnostic focuses on seven challenges as ° ep ia 0es me “bar to en orse t N 8 : : ë being the ones that have to be addressed, namely: consoli ation of an un an continuum a ong comprehensive plan in terms of where should RN6:; rather it highlights the need to urbanize development occur. 1. Accompanythe growth in population the triangle within the Champin area as the . . 2. Structure the towns fundamental intervention (in the NDC) that Third, the AIA Study implies that the core of the ; 3. Transform the economic structure will ensure the balanced distribution of urbanization of the entire region is to occur within 4 Modernize the agriculture population in the region. the NDC area, with measures to prevent spatial 5. Enhance the heritage ° The plans very clear in the pursuit to growth of Quartier Morin and Limonade in the 6. Reduce the vulnerabilities consolidate four polarities in the region, one west, and the implication that the stronger 7. Ensure good, collective management of which would be the area covered by the economic links between Ouanamithe and Fort present study (the Champin pole — see Figure Liberté in the east will reduce the pressure for The Plan d'Aménagement contains five 4). It also offers key elements that would urbanization beyond Terrier Rouge. It can however components: an urban program; an economic identify it as such, like the new planned be expected that RN6 wi continue to attract program around major projects; a management development, but also the proposed ‘urban’ settlement along its edges, which could turn the strategy; a transport plan and forms of habitat and corridor between Sainte Suzanne, Trou-du- : : : : BY; port p area into a long, semi-urbanized strip, and better access to public services. The third part of the Nord, Champin and Caracol. This is a qreensiancine ne Pi Ecc asie d k Strategic Plan focused on implementation, and fundamental element not visible in the AIA eve opment, which this ESCI Grow Stu y seeks provides three main elements, comprising a Study, for it represents the only direct link te do, will enable a better understanding of discussion on the governance and operational between the mountain areas of the Massif du existing, trending and more ‘intelligent structure that ought to be set; a series of + GIDB L9 à + NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 7 A ON LL: ERM [page 16] Nord, the plateau and the coast, between Cap agricultural milieus, economic development the modeling. Haïtien and Ouanaminthe. projects, protected areas, etc. There are four specific contributions that ESCI Third, the CIAT Strategic Plan’s vision will be Growth Study brings to this CIAT plan. First, an embraced, such as a network of services that updated demographic analysis has been performed complement each other, as opposed to compete that yields more detailed and disaggregated against each other; and acknowledging the information useful to offer a better approximation geographical areas that should be protected for of where would human settlement likely grow, and their potential economic value. the extent of this. Secondly more refined approximations will be offered to the geography of Finally, alternative locations for new planned the elements that are fundamental to the economy: settlements will be identified should the suitability analysis yield areas more attractive as a result of Monte Cristi 30 km à o [ g : République < Dominicaine © Pôle de Cap-Haîtien De nre @ Pôle de Trou-du-Nord & anti @ Pôle de Fort-Liberté ip @ Pôle de Ouanaminthe Caballeros 134 km Figure 4 - Extract of the CIAT Strategic Plan showing four poles of economic attraction that would result from the implementation of two new urban centres (Champin and Carrefour Chevry) ds. EMERGING = Em Lo CHE GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 8 Vaitiative ERM [page 17] 3. BASELINE CONDITIONS 3.1 Current Study Area F #7. Fe, &” mn The proposed study area presented in Figure 2 is # ‘ À Ne defined as follows: lt. NET Pier URL Lan, ; ° The main core of the study area comprises la CRT Eaux : \ Î ÿ the west-east corridor along RN6:; N +.) Emme 2" “| Pro | É H } 7. } + Î en Cortrée e The Trou-du-Nord catchment boundary | LP ES 4 EE pal Î EYy Pros } # e AD 4 La defines the southern extent of the study area, js 7 ag Ma LE pu LAC me à ê and the coastline and associated bays along : FPE I #. Tee p : a À 4 : à { —" Canbégne E” Gun A ë the northern coast naturally define the , se à l J Po ere + northern extent of the study area; “. 5 d ” { 7 _ : . 1 LP Ce £ \ pars Dares # e The easterly boundary is partly defined by the PA 2x PE + patin 7 « Nr Trou-du-Nord watershed and in the north- LŸ En sp: ÿ 4 LOT Sn PT Lo pou > east by the Terrier Rouge and Fort Liberté 1 L Shen x * na + municipal boundary; and x s £ + e _Tothe west, the study is defined by the ] CA ne K Limonade and Quartier Morin municipal A (@ S 4 p{ 25 16 7. À boundary. ED L i In defining the study area, the urban areas of Cap LI feu area mn. : A : imite commune Haïtien, Forte Liberté and Ouanaminthe are nn cie recognized as important influencers and have been En Urbain 2013 fully considered. Recif corallien Mn Océan Atlantique The overall NDC area can be characterized as rural Figure 5 — Human settlements in the NDC because of the traditional land use patterns that it : . exhibits, including large plantations of sisal and Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), lADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), . lantai d traditional small to medium scale USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing plantain, an ti lu analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. farming for production of fruits, plantain, livestock, cassava, vegetables and others. The agglomeration 3.11 Townships followed by an ‘organic’ grid of roads that configure patterns that have emerged are townships, in the NDC. th th int hips: blocks of irregular shape and dimensions. These hamlets, farms, ‘linear’ settlements along roads, nine NOR ere are Three Man Lownsnps: tend to be between a quarter and a third of a and planned settlements, which are presented in imonace, lrou-au-ord ana lerrier Rouge, are hectare in area. Inside these blocks there is a parcel Figure 5. p ing a rst il :1ey structure that in general terms is half built, with the founded at regional crossroads, and their urban ne : : k . remaining area being used as solarium and orchard. structure is largely formed by a town center with : : : : Le . Le ce Consequently, the idea of a town in the NDC is the main administrative and religious buildings, == EMERGING + Lo cs GIDB | NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 9 Voitiative ERM [page 18] largely that of an agglomeration of single-family tertiary roads, and they exhibit a much simpler dwellings with a yard. structure, where the main road widens and . : : : In the NDC there are numerous types of farming becomes the main center, in which the churches, operations, from the small one beside the road that The township is surrounded by countryside of playfields, administrative posts and other service- ss est cto three generations of a famil\. and is ï ï i FAT n a u W! il [l l medium sized farms, whose produce is generally related buildings are located. This leads into a exploited for famil Ebtreree and ra ker sold or ex-changed at the township's market. In network of a few streets or paths that reach the ue £th y lus tol terms of land use, the townships are almost entirely surrounding areas, some of which are used for exchanges of the surplus; to large or very large configured as mixed use, with buildings serving as agriculture. An example is shown in Figure 6, which Share oploiee for sisal, pentes elrus: a and home as well as office, store, training center, phone shows the hamlet of Paulette. otl er crops. The presence 0 sma armers along booth, restaurant, etc. An example is shown in the internal roads in the NDC is partly as a result of Figure 7, which shows Terrier Rouge. In Paulette and in other cases, hamlets are also the fact that they used [or continue) to be places were international relief organizations have employed in the large plantations, whose owners developed housing programs. In this case, a ae given ren sr parcels % ste one A : ici D on medium parcels and farms are the result o Hamlets are the second tier settlements present in cree sceau vsbe Peenthe id of subdivision of the large plantations over the years. the NDC, and include places such as Caracol, Bor de M 1 d l 8 8 Mer de Limonade, Phaeton, Paulette and Jacquezy. the planned settlement. These are normally located along secondary or k As a consequence of population growth and the subdivision of the original farms along the road, linear areas of agglomeration begin to form, also visible in Figure 8. In some cases because of their / Fe [29 Es sd À TM re) # | "4 = La - nn À LA ri Den LA TT # F Dr | LE fig ro le a | A | When À ds VX Les à as DS EP NE Les à ÿ ‘ SUSTAINABLE 5 IDB Lo NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 10 te EU ERM [page 19] population size, they become recognized as ‘urban’ 3 j | LA by the IHSI. | Mes con F À 4 _ "| TT de NS te o}| The NDC has also been the subject of numerous 6 4 # ù 1 2 “ efforts by international relief and cooperation (4 Fr: 7 CR il organizations to provide Haitians with shelter and + <> x 4 sanitation, including Food For the Poor, the Red NY 2 à 4% l'A Cross, CARE, OXFAM, CHF and others. USAID has 7 4 4 D de NS 7 been intensely involved, having pledged after the » à » eg. 4 2010 disaster to build 3,000 homes as part of the L . "G RE eo coordinated efforts that brought about the PIC, the a 3 ” Me completion of RN6, the upgrading or reconstruction 1 Fr 24 à . of several water and sanitation facilities and other L 4 +4 ’ » projects of similar nature. : : &” “fi Re % - es + | à The EKAM project is the largest residential & $ : “ ù development in the study area and was developed 5 t’ D , by USAID (see Figure 9). The project is located 4 # equidistant to the PIC, the University of Limonade and the township of Trou-du-Nord. It includes 750 homes, a community center, shopping areas and l recreational spaces, to be placed on a 47 hectare ‘# site approximately. gl Another project for approximately 135 homes is to + ; 4 be built on an 8.5 hectare site that is located just k Ernie. 2 east of the PIC and the crossing known as Jesüs. DA & This project is immediately flanked to the west by a PA SRE L customs facility, and to the east by a farm of ft LA <= . approximately twice the size that is being exploited £ (Se bare fl L With sisal that is then sent to a factory located FT gt | Éshode np | inside the CIP. This sisal exploitation is expected to F 1274 SAT er PR | grow to a 5,000 hectare operation that is described 4f PEAR Us later in this document. | GE RS LAVER ES) 5 EMERGING + ] Lo L 6 SUSTAINABLE NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 11 EX EU % IDB ERM [page 20] 3.1.6 Growth of settlements the NDC (see Section 3.2 for more details on the Limonade, Trou-du-Nord, Terrier Rouge, Caracol, methodolo it has been possible to assess the Paulette and Phaeton. At the crossing of the road Using remote sensing analysis of two LANDSAT 8), P Loic L mg : . changes and growth of the urban footprints in the that connects RN6 with Bord de Mer de Limonade satellite images (1986 and 2010), and through the : Loc: : : . ne study area. Asillustrated in Figure 10, in the year was also a small settlement. Twenty five years later, use of a 2013 high resolution image collected and : : : Le : 1985 the main settlements in the NDC were in 2010, the coastal towns of Bord de Mer de used by the IDB to create a digital terrain model for 07... : Na DEN 5 he (| imoMade Lé4 IN Î , à, } de € ET Phaeto | d Î F Ÿ LT 7 Terrier Rouge ff # f à ë \ L b Ë at ;: Plle ! El # Ç v « { x 4 à \ { o É 25 5 1. À C2 Study area !__: Limite commune Section communale M Huelia urbana 1986 M Huella urbana 2010 nu" Huella urbana 2013 Recif corallien I Océan Atlantique Figure 10 - Footprint growth of urban settlements in the NDC Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. 2 EMERGING Los EF GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 12 initiative. ERM [page 21] Limonade, Caracol and Jacquezy had seen the had seen the largest growth. Bord de Mer de Limonade 4 | 3 passed from an almost invisible concentrated area 1 } at the regional scale, to an area with the largest | ] footprint of all three. Caracol saw its area almost ( tripled, and Jacquezy had also grown dramatically. 4 = The inland townships, however, saw a more normal LÉ ° Tin Du” t expansion, in which Terrier Rouge exhibited the SR ; largest expansion with 2.5 times the area of 1985, ? / followed by Trou-du-Nord with an expansion of " double the size of 1985, and Limonade, with a . pe 4 slightly lower expansion. By 2013, what clearly " appeared in the map as agglomerations were the 4. ce? “ series of linear settlements along RN6 and some of 4 À) "4 the secondary roads connecting the different % PEN townships. The settlements along the roads : Le * A connecting RN6 to Bord de Mer de Limonade as + $ well as the road connecting Limonade with the F L dd township of Campegne to its South appear to be 7 the more defined ones. Figure 11 - Evolution of a housing development in the PIC area Presently, this linear pattern seems to be the one 13 homes in 2009, jumping to 27 homes in 2010 (QA/QC) through a site survey of the area of study, acquiring more speed. Figure 11 exhibits a series of and 37 in 2013. The settlement is likely to continue a process known as ground-truthing. Data collected images from the area along RN6, in the vicinities of growing, and if a measure of the intensity with in the field was used to calibrate the training the intersection of this thoroughfare with the road which it has grown from its inception was applied, regions in the most recent supervised classification that connects to Caracol and serves as one of two the result in 20 years would be a settlement of and inform the execution of all other supervised access points to the PIC. The series begins in 2007 anywhere between 70 housing units if it grew classifications on the historical imagery. The results and ends in 2013, passing by images from 2009 and conservatively to 160 dwellings if it grew with provide an understanding of the evolution of land 2010. The area bound by a continuous yellow line is intensity. cover in the northern development corridor from where a piecemeal process of settlement has 1986-2010. occurred, likely with the support of an international 3.2 Current and Historical Land Cover organization. The settlement is currently comprised As Figure 12 demonstrates, the urban areas and of a total 37 homes and what appears to be a small A remote sensing analysis of two LANDSAT satellite corridors have grown noticeably. In 1986, the urban communal or commercial facility. The area was images (1986 and 2010) covering a span of 24 years footprint of the NDC only occupied 0.4 percent of rural up until 2007 and during 2008-2009 was performed to analyze eleven land cover classes the total area of study expanding to 7.7 percent of settlement appeared, which is also when the for urban, rural and natural areas over time. the total area in 2013. In addition, the non-urban construction of RN6 took place. According to the | de lands appear to illustrate a significant deterioration, : : : Final land cover classification was checked for . Lo : images, the settlement began with approximately L . : with a reduction in natural and agricultural lands. quality assurance and quality control issues == EMERGING + Lo L 6 > SUSTAINABLE NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 13 EX EU TID B ERM [page 22] In terms of green infrastructure, the NDC : ee Gonif ; sr. 1986 experienced its significant deforestation before the ; _ Er period of analysis and a slow, but sustained D TS Ex NS y A ù deterioration of its hydric system. The area has lost nadg me 5.030 hectares of cultivated areas despite having TR Carscbl ke Fi : vast extensions agrological classified soils and in PA - E 2010 only half of the area suited for agriculture È NS 0 5 ; Î (6,315 hectares) was utilized. LENR … SAT \ ï Ë As shown in Table 1, the most important land use - É à F + ; ë changes occurred in rangeland increasing by 6,647 ? Gé © hectares, cultivated areas decreasing by 5,030 À 2 F hectares and barren land decreasing by 2,158 E ”s hectares. Besides rangeland, urban areas have . + md increased significantly: medium intensity 55 4 sy L 2 . —— hectares, low intensity 363 hectares and open space 530 hectares associated to road E " 2010 development. In contrast, the hydric system lost 49 Æ MT hectares of water bodies and 257 hectares of - |. 28 AD forested wetlands associated to deforestation, CRÉT re à 3 erosion, flooding and pollution or the rivers, 4 Le 8 : wetlands, mangroves and riparian forests. 4 A $ - | 4 # " Table 1 - Land use change observed between 1986 and a S *< à i 2010 in the study area XC è $ $ 2 N a: [ Open space 77] 0 7 0 1 0 7] | = Cuïivé Marais salants M CS CS CS = Haréesges a vogetation herbacee Cesar Alanique mm sure Figure 12 - Land Use for 1986 and 2010 for the NDC Source: Remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986 and 2010 és. EMERGING CAIN, Los 46! > SUSTAINABLE UZ NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 14 EX EU F IDB ERM [page 23] 3.2.1 Urban Areas hectares in October 2013. Between 1986 and 2010 One fourth of the 2010-2013 growth is the area of the urban footprint grew 419 Hectares at 17 the PIC (246 Ha), the other three thirds are housin: Urban land use was assessed from the 1986 and U pri ‘8 w L : ( l ne “sing . hectares per year) in contrast with a 340 Ha projects such as EKAM, the UNH-RHC in Limonade 2010 LANDSAT analyses described above, and a : ne : : : . . : between January 2010 and October 2013, at a rate and organic urbanization processes associated with third reference point was also obtained from a high : : : . of 113 Has per year. Figure 12 illustrates the urban these development projects, along the RN6, around resolution image collected and used by the IDB to . : growth between 1986 and 2013, and Figure 14 the existing towns and in the region between create a digital terrain model for the area. Urban : . : : : or Ps . focuses in on key areas of the NDC. Figure 15 Limonade and Quartier Morin, as seen in Figure 14. land use was classified in four categories, based on : : mecs . imperviousness levels [the area that ceases to be provides the urban intensities (in terms of density P ble d k bsorbi of development) as assessed in 2010. This development has started the urbanization permeable due to construction non-absorbing process of a vast rural area that started as 0.4 surfaces such as buildings and roads): developed high intensity, developed medium intensity, developed low intensity and developed open space. F LIMONADE ARACOL | Trou ouh | ÿ TERRIER ROUGE The first three are occupied by buildings and the Es … Î Î fourth one is composed by parks, roads, cemeteries 2] d & - LIST Fils . se and infrastructure inside the urban footprint or 4 < L é ' j connecting discontinuous urban areas, such as the / 1 2 É: 4 * RN6. . An average urban density of 78.09 inhabitants per $ hectare was reached in 2012 and surpassed the 100 Inhabitants per hectare in Caracol and Limonade, 2 however this analysis of imperviousness levels did Le A \ | _od Dr | not show areas classified as developed high 1 » | intensity. Developed areas of medium and low / XY RS | intensity increased significantly during the 24 years è ds £ ‘à Es of the analysis and the urban footprint of the NDC F #$ # { % ; grew more than three times its size between 1986 de s } and 2010, while open space, basically road FN * infrastructure, doubled during the same period. an.” Tr | Comparing the 1986 and 2010 urban footprints C1 Zone d'étude shows that the NDC is mainly developed with lower Limite commune levels of density, predominantly compact built = SL LS LE AUS | Cne environment concentrated around traditional — Empreinte urbaine 2010 Empreinte urbaine 2013 settlements and more recently along roads. Récif corallien mm Océan Atlantique In addition, after the 2010 earthquake and the Figure 14 - Urban footprint growth 1986-2010-2013 for key urban areas construction of the PIC, the urban footprint of the NDC grew significantly reaching a total of 934 Source: Remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 15 te EU ERM [page 24] percent urban to 1.2 percent at the beginning of Like most part of Haïti, the mountains of the displaced by urbanization and charcoal production, 2010 and 1.9 urban in 2013. These growth trends, northern coast have been deforested pushed by and areas around Terrier Rouge have faced in combination with the development and demands for agricultural land, charcoal and irrigation problems. infrastructure projects expected for the area, will construction materials. There was also a sharp attract more population and are likely to continue decrease of cultivated areas, despite the rich quality 3.23 The Hydric System the urbanization process. of soils present in the area of study, in contrast with Four land use categories were evaluated to analyze 322 Vesetation and Agriculture a steep increase in grasslands, while scrub . the hydric system: water bodies, forested wetland, 8 8 decreased slowly. Vast plantations of sisal like the scrub wetland and emergent wetlands. However The findings demonstrate a lack of forested areas. Dauphine Plantation halted production due to the forested wetlands and scrub wetlands were market conditions, other areas might have been consolidated because they belong to the mangrove ———— ecosystem in the area of study. The area of water R TROU DU NORD " æ ns modes TE, bodies has not changed significant with a reduction (4 ; Î _} of 49 hectares (0. 5 percent) between 1986 and bn RTE [ j 2010. à Ë % 4 The relative isolation of the northern coastline of { Caracol and Limonade has protected its hydric system and ecosystems; however, the 3 $ environmental impacts of deforestation, erosion and flooding have slowly deteriorated the riparian = forests of tributary rivers, reducing the area of ges mn | 0 PUS ! forested wetlands from 4,318 to 4,061 hectares (0.6 as 1 ! per cent). Finally, it is important to clarify that the 4 | % à areas subject to emergent wetlands were difficult 4 ” / is CS } to identify because the study was performed on e « { #: , . satellite images without cloud cover and they , } “ correspond to the dry season. / : TS, | { ; 3.3 Physical, Biological and Hydrological À \ mm À Baselines = ru 0 Regional baseline information has been obtained Section communale from a variety of sources. A GIS database has been = Déers arret ment assembled from the various information sources Récif corallien including: MM Océan Atiantique + Topography, which shows that more than half Figure 15 - Urban intensities in 2010 of the study area is relatively flat and its Source: Remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 2010 southern border is part of the Grand Massif NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 16 te 4 EU F ID B ERM [page 25] du Nord, a mountainous formation that been deforested pushed by demandés for + Agrological quality of soils classification, elevates from the southern border of RN6 agricultural land, charcoal and construction where the NDC area is rich in land classes | towards the center of Hispaniola island. materials. In between the two main through IV, while limited in classes V through ecosystems, the plains have smaller VIIL. It is also noted that ecologically-valuable e The hydric system composed by superficial ecosystems composed of disperse woods and lands belonging to classes VI, VII and VIII are water, underground water, riparian forests riparian forests. located closer to the coastline or in the and flood plains, as well as all bodies of water, mountain areas, and coincide with marine- wetlands, reservoirs and protection buffers + The normalized difference vegetation index coastal and highlands ecosystems in the around them, aquifer recharge and discharge (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation health, region as discussed above. areas and the coastal and inland flooding used to monitor degradation processes. NDVI areas defined by the Risk Study (see Section is the result of a remote sensing process in These information sources have been used to 4). which vegetation health is evaluated create individual GIS layers and maps of the area according to the reflection intensity in specific to the technical topic, and Appendix 1 e Strategic ecosystems and protected areas, different color bands captured by the contains all of the individual maps. Figure 16 comprising the regions two main strategic satellite, in particular infrared. In general, provides a composite map showing the collective ecosystems: marine-coastal and highlands. vegetation in the NDC is healthier than in main ecological system (comprising physical, hydric The Three Bays Marine Park was created the most of Haiti, however, it is important to and biological aspects) for the NDC. Slightly less in December 2013. This covers an area of highlight that the healthier vegetation in the than half of the surface area of the main ecological approximately 90,000 hectares that includes NDC corresponds to agricultural areas. In structure corresponds to three main groups: areas the bays of Limonade, Caracol and Fort contrast, the highlands ecosystems are less with potential for forest protection (22%), areas Liberté, as well as the Lagon aux Boeufs, east healthy, which explains why the remote crucial for the protection of water (14%) and key of Fort Liberté. The newly established Three sensing process classified most vegetated ecosystems (12%), mainly mangroves, disperse Bays Marine Park will help protect the areas in the mountains as scrub. forests and dunes and beaches. mangroves, eel grass beds, reefs and habitats housing important fisheries that are crucial for providing livelihoods to nearby a. Rs FRERES communities. It will also help protect the area from storm surges and provide local . communities with ecosystem services such as œil ke carbon sequestration, tourism value and EE” more. The MPA is also home to numerous threatened species, including sea turtles, whales, manatees and migratory birds. The highlands ecosystem is composed by areas adequate for reforestation and riparian habitats, crucial for the improvement of the hydric systems, from the head of the rivers and their watersheds. Like most parts of Haiti, Agricultural-land with Grand Massif du Nord in the distance the mountains of the northern coast have NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 17 t< EU ERM [page 26] ë l'a ou ; rm] F2 CA Î nf" — + LE Berre f = Rés TT j Le Fr n CS - » = Be 2 sa { 16 SS | 24 ve 7 5 2 ( _ ] 2 +, ) } A y F : £ J 4 à \ ; z , : PET 2 & 5 ] < 2 F4 Fr "4 d # k ’, b De { s (TE à Le \ EEE j EN : C1 Study area Reservoirs — Route principale ce | en «2 = Limite commune Zone humide — Route secondaire LC er 2357 Section communale MM VI Hydric system rs MM Zones urbaines En Vi! Recif corallien _… MM Espace boise VII Océan Atlantique D Lac - étang — Rivière principale nn . Mangiier Rivière secondaire IE Hs Plages et dunes MM Lits fluviaux et alluvions récentes ÉTNERR _ Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. > EMERGING Lo cs GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 18 initiative ERM [page 27] 3.4 Cultural Heritage Northern Haiti has a vast and valuable cultural 4 D y heritage, documented through field surveys and f F — pr historical research, asillustrated in Figure 17. The $) L. à % J region possibly has the earliest Pre-Columbian : ” | KL Amerindian sites in the Caribbean, and the earliest Se ") : à |] documented in Haiti (early lithic, possibly 4,000 S tt. À. à ; pt Sul B.C.), as well as sites associated with the Arawak TRE ln £ A , " and Taino cultures. La Navidad, the first known D a À _" + $ European settlement in the Americas, is located in h is RS $ the shoreline between Limonade and Caracol, and D, n in front, with its traces lost in the Ocean, is the + ë potential site of the wreckage of Christopher Ce à ? ë Columbus’ Santa Maria ship, the best known of several underwater archaeology, traditional shipbuilding, fishing traditions, and the historical e implications of maritime trade throughout the fl sa Caribbean Basin. 4 Ps o 25 $ —#: À Spanish and French colonial heritage left forts, fortifications and military buildings, and later, C1 Zone d'étude * Période occupation américaine |__| Période espagnole : : : Parc des Trois Baies + Sites sacrés du vodou Colonisation francaise independence, with the earliest and most M Zones urbaines Ÿ Pélerinage catholique vodou M Période amérindienne significant slave re-volts, ended in the first free *_ Période amérindienne * En Bas Saline Zones de naufrage potentiels Black Republic of the Americas and their heritage. : En = É ra dog Bi Dre ati dl The eighteen, nineteen and twentieth century + Période haitienne PNH CSSR Récif corallien contributed with sugar, indigo and sisal plantations * Période flibustiers, boucaniers MM Architecture vernaculaire Em Océan Atlantique and the remains of their facilities, including some Figure 17 - Cultural heritage investments from United States. Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote Such history also left a rich architectural heritage sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. and construction techniques: traditional wattle- and-daub vernacular architecture, Caribbean wood, rubble and ashlar and stone masonry colonial 3.5 Urban, Commercial and ° Industrial uses such as the PIC and mining structures and early modern reinforced concrete Infrastructure concessions; typologies. Urban fabric and settlement patterns mostly display European colonial array in contrast The urban and infrastructure development has also e Roads acknowledging the hierarchy of roads with disperse Caribbean configurations. been mapped, and has comprised the following: including national routes, urban roadés, secondary roads and tertiary roads. == EMERGING Lo L 6 > SUSTAINABLE & NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 19 EX se F IDB ERM [page 28] e Publicutilities, acknowledging that the NDCis significantly undeserved and the 98% of the study area that is currently rural lacks basic utilities, such as water supply, wastewater collection, storm water drainage, solid waste management and electricity; and + Employment and key economic activities such as commercial (transnational, regional and local markets), industrial (the PIC), services (hotels, financial institutions and fuel stations), institutional (health facilities, universities, police stations, wastewater and solid waste treatment areas) and mining activities. + Social services and infrastructure including health and education facilities. These information sources have been used to create individual GIS layers and maps of the area specific to the technical topic, and Appendix 2. à + NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 20 te EU ERM [page 29] 4. HAZARD AND RISK ASSESSMENT liberation of mechanical energy, typically and storms can be expected in all areas, including STUDIES frequently materialized as earthquakes, and northern regions, where impacts of include can trigger tsunamis. The boundary between flooding, loss of life, livestock, destruction of This section presents the work undertaken for the two plates is not defined by a single agricultural lands, erosion, river siltation, building a baseline risk assessment and vulnerability border line, but instead by a zone where increased incidence of water-borne diseases, analysis for the NDC. It outlines the results of a several tectonic fault systems which run and famine. probabilistic risk assessment, impact analysis and across the island and show evidence of mapping of prioritized hydro-meteorological and historic and/or pre-historic activity. Within ° _Inland Flooding: Flooding is by far the most geophysical hazards. It utilizes the common risk the system, there have been historic evidence destructive hazard in Haiti. The country’s framework, where risk is a function of hazard, of several destructive earthquakes, the most most populated cities are all nestled in flat exposure and vulnerability. The results from this recent being the earthquake of January 12th, coastal valleys. Widespread deforestation in aspect of the study will assist decision makers in: 2010. The northern coast has been struck the upper reaches of these valleys, coupled repeatedly by earthquakes and tsunamis. with the lack of storm water drainage ° Better understanding hydro-meteorological infrastructure in urban areas, creates an and geophysical hazards; ° Hurricanes: The World Bank’s Climate Risk environment conducive to inland flooding. e __Identify which assets are most exposed to the and Adaptation Country Profile states that natural hazards; and over the past 30 years, Haiti has been hit by + Coastal Flooding: Settlements along the coast e _ Understand the most serious potential six hurricanes, where the impacts of these and in low lying areas, along with damage to consequences of climate change such as physical damage, economic loss and loss of 3 ù Fr. M De human life. M; ua 3 Le" a s * ; Le 4.1 Prioritized Hazards V | 4 #0 Based upon a review of available hazard records # so S 8 - and information, discussions with the IDB specialists | À and Haïitian stakeholders (see Table 2), the ni following five hazards were prioritized and studied: né se e Seismicity: Haïti shares the island of EU CÉRER À s TS FE} KI LA ë, { Hispaniola with the Dominican Republic. This LT ag S portion of the Greater Antilles is located at _æ: = x 4 BEA the northern edge of the Caribbean tectonic es = "| 4 $ plate, at its boundary with the North- ns NH |A American plate. The limit between the two ne À { à tectonic plates is defined by a strike-slip left- > L lateral motion, since the Caribbean plate x moves relatively to the east-northeast and the North-America plate moves relatively to the Floodme EM ons de | west. This kind of interaction induces a strong == EMERGING + Lo L 6 > SUSTAINABLE NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 21 EX EU F ID B ERM [page 30] and dwindling mangrove assets and ii. Vulnerability assessment; and Regional Climate Model (RCM) and was developed deterioration of littoral environments, result iv. Loss estimation. by the Hadley Centre (UK) in order to help generate in exposure of populations and communities high-resolution climate change information for as along the northern coast to coastal flooding. Section 7.12 then presents risk reduction many regions of the world as possible. PRECIS is recommendations, where hazard losses are made freely available to groups of developing e Drought: The north of Haiti has frequently compared and a series of sustainability countries in order that they may develop climate experienced repeated droughts, brought recommendations are presented for each hazard, change scenarios at national centres of excellence, about by a combination of erratic rainfall as well as a cost-benefit analysis for five mitigation simultaneously building capacity and drawing on patterns coupled with a limited water strategies. local climatological expertise. management infrastructure. In Haïti, droughts have destroyed crops, reduced agricultural 4.3 Climate Change Projections For this project, the PRECIS projections assumed an production, and decreased food security. A1B emissions scenario. Under this scenario, as Missing or poorly managed water 43.1 Approach defined in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate infrastructure makes the agricultural regions The available information and studies on climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission and hence, the livelihoods that depend on change scenarios relevant to the study area in Scenarios (SRES), it relates to a future world of very them, particularly vulnerable to a changing northern Haiti were researched and summarized. rapid economic growth, global population that climate. The key findings were then inputted into the risk peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and Table 2 — Haitian stakeholders assessment work in order to enable the natural qerpi introduction of reware more etant hazards of flooding (both inland and coastal), technologies. A1B assumes a ba ance across a hurricanes and drought to be assessed when taking energy sources {where balanced is defined as not + Comité Interministériel d'Aménagement du Territoire into consideration future climate change relving too heavily on one particular energy source, (CIAT) dictions. on the assumption that similar improvement rates pre! * Direction Nationale de l'Eau Potable et de apply to all energy supply and end-use l'Assainissement (DINEPA) The Climate Studies Group (at Mona, Jamaica}, part technologies). No projections were available for : Vire el RE Transport et of the University of West Indies, was commissioned other emissions scenarios or the new Communication (MTPTC) to undertake an assessment of climate change Representative Concentration Pathways (IPCC ° Ministère de l'Economie et des Finances (MEF) parameters and projections applicable to northern 2013). + Centre National de l'Information Géo-Spatiale (CNIGS) Haïti. This work is presented in Appendix 3, and . 0 Direction de la protection Civile (DPC) comprises the following: 4.3.2 Temperature and Precipitation Q Institut Haïtien de Statistique et d'Informatique (IHSI) Future change data are provided for five variables * Bureau Des Mines Et Energies + Projected Changes in 5 Atmospheric Variables when considering an A1B emissions scenario. For for selected grid boxes over Haiti from the four of the five variables the data was provided as PRECIS RCM, February 2014; and absolute change. These variables are: minimum 4.2 Methodology ° Evaluation of trends in sea levels and tropical temperature (°C), maximum temperature (°C), The process for the risk and hazard assessment storm intensities, February 2014. mean temperature (°C) and 10 m wind speed (m/s). comprised the following steps: The climate change parameter projections were Percentage change Is provided jor precipitation. ï | e The change for each variable and for each period is i. Climate change assessment; obtained through the running of PRECIS (Providing calculated for the 2040s consistent with the time ï. Development of hazard profiles; REgional Climates for Impacts Studies), which is a “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 22 t<C IL ERM [page 31] horizons of the overall ESCI study. Table 3 summarizes the future change data ranges. e- 4.3.3 Sea Level Rise and Tropical Cyclones 7 vil a. An assessment of current literature on current and ER. ZÔN æ= 288 : E 1212 projected trends in sea level rise and storm é p - = DANJE Xp 2251142! intensities with particularly emphasis (where LS PPT, | | ! il { LA | L j possible) on future values for the Caribbean region { | 774 £ mA LE à (| | | 2 2 was also undertaken. D LAN ” ie) Le Ye) à + ET Lai > Ÿ Table 3 — Summary of Climate Change Projections for 1 A À NE f | ” F Le D the 20405 for Northern Haiti ) Si gen gwo tranblerion EG yRS | 4 ÿ NA Put nome DSL È ” “ d Mean Min Temp Max Precip L£ PEU RÉ RTTE po, o 0 De à nn LLN LAN FN Temp (°C) (co) | Temp(°c) | (%) 2h à Sr or NDJ 137to 1.62 to 141to -11.03 A 1.74 1.85 1.76- to- Pat 3-01 Tsunami warning in Cap Hatien FMA 1.36to 1.63 to 145to -0.83 1.60 1.94 1.78 to 9.98 MU) 1.30to 173to 1.54to -10.14 1.77 2.06 2.11 to- cyclone intensity to shift towards stronger storms 0.559 mph) over the projected for the 2040s 4.4.3 by the end of the 21st century (2 to 11% increase in relative to the 1960-1990 baseline. These projected - rio 17200 Er 7 mean maximum wind globally). When simulating changes have applied to model wind speed over the k ° ° 71 21st century warming under A1B, the present return period to develop wind hazard maps for Haïti Annual 138 to 1.67 to 148 to 9.50 models and downscaling techniques suggest that reflect projected climate change scenarios. The 1.74 1.97 1.93 to - increases in intensity and fraction increases in the resultant maximum wind speed with projected 3.69 number of most intense storms. climate change scenario are compared to modeled Data is averaged for over three month seasons: November- wind speeds for Haiti and are outlined in Table 4.8. January (NDJ), February-April (FMA), May-July (MI) and The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2013) August-October (ASO), roughly consistent with the Caribbean indicates that the frequency of the most intense dry season and wet season. : : : storms is more likely than not to increase by more For sea level rise, projected increases in global than +10%, while the annual frequency of tropical mean sea levels were taken from IPCC (2013), cyclones are projected to decrease or remain relative to 1986-2005 as a baseline; suggest a likely relatively unchanged for the North Atlantic. range of 0.17-0.38m increase in the 2046-2065 . : : timeframe This suggests no major change in the frequency of ° hurricanes in North Atlantic region comprising Haïti. For storm intensities, simulations are consistently The SRES scenario A1B for study area of Haïti finding that greenhouse warming causes tropical suggests that the wind speeds are projected to decrease by very small magnitude of 0.25 m/s ( EMERGING + NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 23 tnitiative ERM [page 32] 4.4 Hazard Profiles and southeastern coast and strike-slip fault zones applied to determine the seismic hazard for the that transect the northern and southern portion. study area, which has involved assembling relevant For the five prioritized hazards, profiles were seismic data and information for Haiti, geo- developed by investigating the various natural While there is a verifiable record of earthquake referencing the information to the study area, and hazard occurrences within the study area. The occurrences dating back more than 500 years in the overlaying against local geological characteristics hazard identification process included consultations Caribbean, in general, the occurrence of seismic and slope indices in order to generate earthquake with key Governmental, NGO and community events in Haiti has been poorly recorded. A review hazard maps, expressed in terms of peak ground stakeholders, as well as observations during field of the information available has indicated that since acceleration (PGA) soil values at 10 m horizontal missions. Information on past hazard events were 1750 approximately 19 major earthquake events resolution. The PGA is a measure of how hard the also downloaded from the Disaster Information have been recorded, culminating in the tragic event earth shakes in a given geographic location, in other Management System in January 2010 which claimed the lives of over words the intensity of an event. A series of maps (http://www.desinventar.net/). The profiling of 200,000 people. has been developed for different return periods, hazards includes determining the spatial extent of and Figure 18 provides an example hazard map hazards, where possible (i.e. maps), understanding Appendix 4 provides full details of the methodology the frequency or probability of future events, their magnitude, and climate variability factors that may affect their severity. Each identified hazard has Es 2 unique characteristics that can impact northern ( 4 jl + Haïti. Appendix 4 provides the detailed hazard | _ still d p cles TE profiles, and these are summarized below. ; 1 L F L 4 44.1 Seismic | LL fé An earthquake is caused by a sudden motion or , M, trembling of the earth due to an abrupt release of À d j stored energy in the rocks beneath the earth’s Al | surface. When stresses due to underground a R. tectonic forces exceed the strength of the rocks, à. / | É they will abruptly break apart or shift along existing à ) | faults. The energy released from this process results _ ee _ If "4 | in vibrations known as seismic waves that are À | responsible for the trembling and shaking of the à | 27. Legend ground during an earthquake. À. 6 (1 study Area à. 4 PGA (g) 475 YrRP! The seismic hazard in Haïti has its origin in the Ne, J une interaction of the North American and Caribbean =. À Le _— plates, which have a relative eastward movement Ê of 2 cm/year (20 mm/yr). The island of Hispaniola is considered a complex area of deformation which Figure 18 - PGA probabilistic seismic hazard map for 10% probability in 50 years, i.e. 475- presents both subduction zones off the northern year return period “##% GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 24 te EU ERM [page 33] developed for the study area. caused and economic impacts for the same period 44.3 Coastal Flooding of US$ 822 million. High jated with al d The assessment indicates that areas at higher 18 waves associate . with tropical storms an seismic risk (as indicated by the darker areas in One of the most serious components of hurricanes hurricanes are potentially very dangerous and Figure 18 which correspond to higher PGA values), is high winds. Because of the extensive size of a damaging to the coastal settlements due to the . principally due to the underlying soil conditions, are catastrophic hurricane, a storm need not pass storm surges which can cause extreme flooding In those areas closer to the coastline where softer and directly over Haiti to cause severe damage. A coastal areas, particularly when storm surge deeper soils exist. hurricane passing within close proximity to the coincides with normal high tide. island of Hispaniola can also cause major damage to : : : The storm surge is produced by water being pushed 44.2 Hurricanes property and even loss of life. Essentially there are esp Y PEINE PUS no areas of Haiti that are free from hurricane force toward the shore by the force of the winds moving Hurricanes and tropical storms are large-scale winds. The coastal and low Iving areas, such as cyclonically around the storm. The impact on surge systems of severe thunderstorms that develop over those of the study area experience the first effects of the low pressure associated with intense storms tropical or subtropical waters and have a defined, | : 1! is minimal in comparison to the water being forced organized circulation. Hurricanes have a maximum s damaging nes: me ans et accompanr toward the shore by the wind. The intensity of the : + : A urrican: e Intense an eV! . sustained (meaning 1-minute average) surface wind Intense and prolonged rainfall, winds and re storm surge is affected by the width and slope of speed of at least 74 mph; tropical storms have wind pl 8 ! u P the continental shelf. A shallow slope will ds of 39 moh to 74 moh can cause both coastal flooding (see Section 4.4.3) : speeds o! mph to 74 mph. and inland flooding (see Section 4.4.4) potentially produce a greater storm surge than a PT steep shelf. The north of Haïti is prone to storm Hurricanes get their energy from warm waters and : um surge. typically lose strength as the system moves inland. The methodology developed for the identification Hurricanes and tropical storms can bring severe eat modeling Of hurriane mOtIon une Towns such as Bor de Mer de Limonade, Caracol winds, inland flooding, storm surges, coastal and Phaeton are susceptible to coastal floodin: . 7 ! ben: existing models and verifying and calibrating this n'are suscepi co 1e erosion, extreme rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, work against the local study area parameters, as caused by storm surge. The American Association of and tornadoes. Hurricanes and tropical storms 8 NP y : P 7. Architects, indicate that these settlements are in a typically have enough moisture to cause extensive well as building in the projections for future climate precarious location to shoreline (American Institute floodi change implications. Appendix 4 provides full details : : Lo ooding. ofthe methodology applied to determine the of Architects, 2012). There is, however, limited : documented history concerning storm surges i Haiti is among the most hurricane-prone locations hurricane hazard for the study area. Me Mel doc rent : sl th I In 2004 the Fond and Acricult Haiti, let alone well documented instances of in the world. In e Food and Agriculture . il ithi Organization (FAO) reported that during a period These results model wind speed over various return coastal flooding within the NDC. : eriods in order to develop wind hazard maps for from 1909 - 2004, forty-seven (47) tropical storms at that reflect Drojected dimate change p To assess coastal flooding, a regional model was and hurricanes hit Haïti. From 2004 to 2012, twelve utilized and adopted to understand wave and surge (12) wind storms have made landfall in Haiti. Data scenarios. Hurricane risk, associated with wind heights in the sud area. The information Utired f h : b , which id speed, is a relatively homogeneous factor across £ : y . rom the Prevention Web , which provides the study area, and therefore no discernible for this study effort was derived from the Atlas of information on human and economic losses from d Probable Storm Effects in the Caribbean Sea, which di Lo geographical variation was noted for the study area. € ecs? € ' in ea Wnic isasters, indicates that between 1980 and 2010, was developed under the Caribbean Disaster over four million (4,171,407) persons have been Mitigation Project (CDMP), a joint effort of the affected by hurricanes in Haiti, with 4,990 deaths Organization of American States (OAS) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID). #5 GIDB 6 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 25 CSN EE ERM [page 34] Wave and storm surge heights for four return provides full details of the methodology applied to Table 4 - Coastal flooding projections (including for periods (10, 20, 50, and 100 years), which were determine the coastal flooding hazard for the study climate change to 2040) reported for specific points along the Haïitian coast. area, and Table 4 presents the projected results of For this study, wave height and surge heights that coastal flooding. RER Predicted Flood Predicted Area of Les Period Level (m) Flooding Inundation were reported for Cap Haitian were adopted for the : (km£) entire study area. These water levels were then Figure 19 shows the 50-year return flood map for projected onto the coastal land using a GIS to the study area showing the potential for demarcate the horizontal extent of inundation. The inundation, and illustrating the vulnerabilities of effects of projected climate change were also coastal settlements such as Caracol, Jaquezy, Borde integrated into the assessments, including minor de Mer de Limonade, and Phaéton to flooding. changes in sea level rise as per Section 4.3.3, are 4.44 Inland Flooding represented on the extent of flooding. Appendix 4 Floods can arise from a variety of causes. The most commonly understood floods occur when water levels in rivers rise and the waters overtops their banks, and adjacent floodplains and lowlands are 4 CDR subject to recurring floods. This type of flooding # N : = usually occurs after intense or prolonged rainfall. A F5 à — second type of flooding can also occur due to heavy pre “u j } 1) DE } Dr. . 7 rains where infiltration of rainfall is impeded ie 7] 4 À; #8 « Î È (through either impermeable soils or increase in Le af D s : Î Phaetdf}A n | d. u impervious surfaces due to development). L ST Afonade f | i fé 5 » p. Le 4 sa L: ” 2 A 4 Ê “ À r > RC PAIE Pre n F Floods in Haïti, as in other Caribbean islands, follow P | En | PAS F £ Lo nt \ Ê à tropical weather patterns. Haïti has two distinct L #7 Tfou-du-Nord LE — 4 DE oe | à rainy seasons, one from April to June and another D #0 à î % À È 7 VX i à from October to November. There have been a PAT 23 r d 4 2 i) GE N number of large-scale devastating flooding events LA > ne ES Ee ? = À 2 . in Haïti over time and most of the flooding events | ne Ge æ 13 %. have been linked to large-scale climatic events (i.e. /} Q PNA K tropical cyclones), as well as more recently smaller # É K Î SSSR 7, À low pressure systems which have impacted Haiti on K LP at À ? L î > Li a yearly basis. OT Zone d'étude Récif corallien = De conaine MM Océan Atlantique Haiti’s rugged and mountainous terrain coupled Très faible with environmental degradation and poor — Fate watershed management has created optimal En Éievé conditions for flooding problems. M Très élevé Figure 19 — Coastal flooding with climate change projections for a 50-year return period NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 26 <C Sie ERM [page 35] ERM Flooding Study The Rivière Franiche, Rivière Pilette and Rivière river. The Rivière Caracol is a permanent river with A6 part of this ESCI study, a flooding study was Cabaret are the main tributaries to this river and a constant source of water, while the Rivière performed on the two principal watersheds in the are intermittent streams and are dry part of the Cartache is an intermittent stream and is dry part of study area, the Trou-du-Nord and the Grande year. The Petite Rivière, an intermittent river, is the year. Rivière du Nord (see Figure 20). ERM's study only also located in this basin and drains into the Trou- . : k ‘ du-Nord plain. The Grande Rivière du Nord The vulnerability of these two watershedbs is assessed river-related flooding. watershed measures 680 Km2. The Rivière Caracol significant, with widespread deforestation, clearing The Trou-du-Nord watershed measures 110 km2. and Rivière Cartache are main tributaries to this of land for agriculture and increased urbanization all contributing to the flooding problems in the q region.  = E cr The commune of Quarter Morin, which is situated re er FA in a moist, low lying alluvial plan and bordered on … NX he the east by the Grand Rivière du Nord, is prone to 3! 2 flooding. Several factors have worked to increase kr É j Ê ve the susceptibility of flooding, including more pu LÉ -'R 15 intense climatic events, increased run-off, and the 4 à 2 . da s accumulation of debris downstream. Limonade is Un ) bordered by the Grand Rivière du Nord on the west. ; | l DE While the Barrage de Tannerie previously helped to T: FES ns contain flood waters and provide irrigation during Mn 1 1 F the dry season, the dam failed in the 1960s and has $ + ES ? not been repaired. Intense rainfall causes flooding 07, Es and the accumulation of water in low-lying areas et J É which are slow to drain following flooding events 1 due to limited or inadequate storm water drainage J infrastructure. Limonade receives an average of 1200-1400 mm rainfall annually. In Trou-du-Nord, the terrain, rainfall and soil types, in both the mountains and plains, give rise to a fairly dense network of rivers. The Trou-du-Nord river is the most important river system. In low- lying portions of commune, there are a series of smaller tributaries and torrential gullies. Large areas of the plain are subject to frequent flooding caused by torrential downpours. The heavy clay content of Figure 20 — Key watersheds in the study area the soil causes erosion and results in frequent Source: CNGIS sediment build up in streams. Urban areas are adjacent to the main river with development 2 EMERGING Lo se — SUSTAINABLE UZ NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 27 EX EU FIDB ERM [page 36] occurring in riparian zones. Historically, the city has analysis and a probabilistic simulation of rainfall including some of the challenges encountered. been flooded severely. which has considered climate change. Hydrologic modeling was undertaken to simulate the Table 5 presents the projected results of inland Flood risks are also present in the northeast portion precipitation-runoff processes, and hydraulic river flooding across the study area, and Figure 21 of the Terrier Rouge commune, sometimes modeling of the main rivers identified above was shows the 50-year return flood map for the study impacting the city on its northern edge. To the also undertaken to develop probabilistic flood area showing the potential for flooding. The results south, settlements experience higher annual rainfall forecast maps for six return periods (2-, 5-,10-, 25., shows that with climate change on an average flood amounts, and as a result, experience flash floods. 50-, 100-return periods) for the portions of the depth will increase by about 0.23 m (23 cm) across The urban development of the city is constrained by basin that intersect the study area, and including all return periods. low lying topography, which is prone to flooding. climate change projections. Appendix 4 provides full | | | details of the methodology applied to determine Table 5 — Inland river flooding projections (including for À detailed flood hazard assessment methodology the inland river flooding hazard for the study area, climate change to 2040] was undertaken which included a meteorological Return Predicted Flood Predicted Area of pese = = pr Fees Period Level (m) Flooding Inundation dé serie _ (km?) NS , _— “@- Pl 0 FN — [S vear 7777 936 77 [7 103 7 7 | | TS L 5 Year 9.36 10.3 LL: L. Se ÉR Ÿ < À | A IDB Flooding Study he: t | \ PA À Legend Flood 50 Year RP With Climate Change Flood Depth,m … High : 10.1609 S ü |25 5 10ÏKiometers muy [LT New Proposed Stugy Area Figure 21 - Inland flood hazard map with climate change 50 year return period “##% GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 28 t<C IL ERM [page 37] 4.4.5 Drought drought hazard (see Figure 22). The cumulative recurring phenomenon in the northern coastal . . . effects of longer dry periods are crop losses and plains and reported that “rainfall in wet mountain grougne mantsetin NAS that more families are becoming reliant on food areas [of the Northeast] has helped spur crop of tic Fall terne durin the two istinct assistance during the “hunger season”, which is the growth and development, while crops in Ferrié, Fort rainy seasons: À Pure and Oétober November three-month period between rainy seasons, in Liberté (except on the Maribaroux plains), Terrier Records to he World Bank, El Niño/ ENSO ° which there is little harvesting and employment Rouge, Caracol, and Trou-du-Nord have failed due | 8 ? . opportunities. to the drought conditions in these areas, prolonging episodes have tended to delay the arrival of the the lean season, which generally “ends in June... rainy sesons) ant cite drought cons in ie The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS [and that]... virtually the entire northern region has country. NATHAT (2022), in a national leve azar Net) reported in August 2011 that the north and been affected by the drought which delayed the nent incicated nes farmers N pote northeast were affected by drought and estimated start of the spring planting season, which eventually onger RE NATHAT a n en l snorter ue that major crop yields would be diminished by 20 got underway in June with the onset of the rains.….” seasons. The study has also categorize percent. The FEWS Net furthered detailed what is a (FEWS 2012). most of the northern coast as being susceptible to i i + ï i i H i ï i î Of greater concern to stakeholders is the impact Légende : ER &. 6 that these short term fluctuations in precipitation |: tocaié MNT (m.s.n.m.) pe mm © GFDRR will have on the surface and subsurface water sens = 20 _ R De - nn supply or the hydrological regime of watersheds Countor du pays s Puit LT 2 an s = . . er = …— LAS Re — | BID Là &] ®] that intersect the NDC. It takes longer to recognize DM 540-1565 ET a. Sn D. | the effects of hydrological drought on soil moisture . [1 1266-2668 — ee AT ke …L'RÉPUBLIQUE D'HAÏTI levels, stream flows, as well as in groundwater and PE ot SAS, | ane reservoir levels. The frequency of hydrological R = Le QUE For actuels des menaces naturelles : : 4 Ml Sos, multiples en Haïti drought is typically measured over the longer term . E à D Faut pue remam and predicates a need for understanding of both Lo ni raarmaniane h L Here Le : Béropanent se tune the supply and demand for water. Hydrological re LEE 462 drought concerned with the problems associated | : Re op / \gun | Susceptibilité à la with deficiencies in precipitation (the supply) and — = gen |" LS 5 panne. —| ‘#chersse that of competing interests for water access and | L RS. FC IN utilization (the demand). De NOR 0 D Fa s [100000 ed An assessment of drought has been performed Chu pre SR cure DR pains Soi or Leader dau : : ee | ; Ê Tr ES me te, ae à es RL SR Ban ae Grn focusing on the influence of precipitation, and how EE ge. en PE #? Ex LE ; Sr Han var Pre this is coupled with the anticipated effects of Frans “an ITR D. [Enr development and climate variability, will impact the us Ex EE Fr : current and future water supply. Current and future | | | pe | | | | | | | ————— water balance was estimated for the two main li Ë î ÿ f i I 1 H Lie ee watersheds that intersect the study region. This Figure 22 - Drought susceptible areas in Haiti as presented by NATHAT, 2012 study does not seek to address the broader > EMERGING + Lo Es GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 29 Initiative ERM [page 38] environmental, political and socio-economic factors projections and development growth presented in This water deficit during the dry period indicates that also play a role in water access issues. Section 5) that takes into consideration climate prolonged periods of hydrological drought, and change. climate change and projected growth will further The hydrological drought assessment has been reduce the available water stock and make the performed by estimating components of the Table 6 — Summary of water balance for the study area impacts of prolonged periods of water deficit more classical hydrological cycle. The movement of water significant. Such impacts will become more through the hydrological cycle varies significantly in em mie | pronounced during years with below average both time and space. The hydrological cycle 2040 rainfall. emphasizes the four factors of interest to E e Evapotranspiration; - = Ë sit Mm $ 100 For this analysis, the hydrological models that were $0 developed for the flood hazard assessment, along Mm er Mo M9 en D ce with other conventional methods of hydrological nan MS ne assessment, have been used to assess potential pe water availability for the watersheds of Grand River Surface Water Potential Figure 23 — Monthly variation in water demand and Du Nord and Trou-du-Nord. The climate change availability (current conditions) projections have also been integrated into the Ground Water Potential Total Water Potential, Appendix 4 provides full details of the methodology 450 applied to determine the drought hazard for the +00 study area. Based on the estimates of water ; £ 350 availability potential and demandés, overall En summary of water balance is shown in Table 6. Les £ 150 The current water availability potential is Monthly variation shows that during the dry season É 10.0 considerably more than the demandés. But in future of the year, the gap between demand and io projections, the water availability potential is availability increases as compared to the wet En RE ve ape nn tan ta Set octi No” Dei merely sufficient to meet the projected demands. season. There is however a significant gap between Month the demand and availability potential particularly — Available Potential, Mm3 — Demand Mm The monthly variations in the availability and during the dry season (June to October) as demand potentials are shown in Figure 23 for compared to the wet season. Figure 24 - Monthly variation in water demand and present day, while Figure 24 shows the monthly availability (projection for 2040 including climate variation for future growth (2040, using growth change) “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 30 t<C IL ERM [page 39] 4.5 Vulnerability Assessment e Limited access to basic needs such as clean so as to allow for the definition of an appropriate water; and scale from which to capture inventory elements. The vulnerability assessment considers the study ° Environmental degradation such as Appendix 5 provides a more detailed description of area’s social vulnerability as well as the more deforestation. the methodology applied to characterize the assets traditional assessment of the potential impacts to exposed, and a brief summary is applied below. the built environment. The social assessment seeks 4.5.2 Characteristics of Assets Exposed to identify a variety of indicators to inform of the : . This mapping process provided the basis for underlying causes of vulnerability in the region, The inventory of exposed assets involves classifying buildings and for using a suitable while the more traditional vulnerability assessment understanding the distribution of people, buildings classification hierarchy for the capture of a wide identifies assets, characterizes structures and and infrastructure that may be affected by natural range of structures and densities. Such an approach infrastructure so as to determine the built phenomena. Remote sensing along with 2 rapid is consistent with standard methodologies used to environment’s potential performance to different field assessment method was used to estimate the develop exposure models and supports the levels of hazard intensity (i.e. acceleration, flood number and distribution of assets in the study area. required inputs for undertaking a probabilistic risk depth, etc.). A vulnerability assessment is This included understanding the building density assessment by providing an approximate spatial performed to assess the specific damage and loss and types for each land use category within defined location of exposed elements for each block characteristics of each asset identified. administrative boundaries. Administrative subdivision within the section communal (see boundaries (i.e. section communal) were then Figure 25). 4.5.1 Social Vulnerability subdivided based on density of building footprints This section informs the underlying causes of vulnerability in the region and the potential impacts ES NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN d” of the identified hazards to demographic groupings vo ON 5 in the study area. Vulnerability considers the social somnune AD 4 — and environmental aspects that increase and LES ra è accentuate impacts of hazard events. Social Er À > us en... vulnerability focuses on the economic, educational se LR = (TT AT) AT KR: and financial factors that impact the ability of LÉ. 2 — RTS 0 LL fai people or communities to adapt to hazards. The STE K7 <> ? In vulnerability of the study area is exacerbated by the EN D 2 6 many factors that define the NDC including: Ve LC RS sn ous e Extreme poverty; = Fe : EN ° _ Demographics with more children present EC ON Cv Lu {and therefore vulnerable); nest ee q K > e Areliance on self-employment; t Ke mr mano ° Limited education opportunities; 7 snscot PT LE Legend ° Gender inequalities; amas Ê RS ER LC] Haïti Study Area e Land access challenges; _ es Bcoruens: encens bai :"""&E E-| + Food shortages and reliance on subsistence farming; Figure 25 - Distribution of block boundaries in the study area EMERGING + Lo a SUSTAÎNABLE 5 IDB \ NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 31 Initiative ERM [page 40] Building occupancy mapping and distribution was estimated through a review with local construction for seismic, hurricane, coastal and inland flood then undertaken and structure classification of practitioners, and were then aggregated to create hazards using standard risk assessment structures applied. Structural information is an economic values for assets in the different blocks, methodologies that take into consideration hazard important factor in determining the vulnerability or such as the example shown in Figure 26. Similar parameters, in conjunction with damage ratios, to how likely structures are to fail when they are maps have been produced for commercial and determine the economic loss potential for each subjected to hazards, such as wind pressure that industrial buildings. hazard (with the exception of drought). Appendix 6 exceeds their design. The models of the different provides a more detailed description of the types of infrastructure were determined based on A similar process is also followed for facilities and methodology applied for loss estimation, and the experience with the typical construction of Haïti. infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, roads, associated results, and a brief summary is The basic structural systems were grouped and bridges, utilities such as water, electricity and presented below. according to the following general construction: wastewater. reinforced concrete, masonry structure, These estimates should be used to understand unreinforced masonry, and earthen. 4.6 Loss Estimation relative risk from hazards and potential losses and ue . . are not intended to be predictive of precise results. 4 Probabilistic loss estimates were then determined ou : : Lou Replacement values for buildings are then Uncertainties are inherent in any loss estimation eu uv sc on methodology arising in part from incomplete scientific knowledge concerning natural hazards ; a and their effects on the built environment. sdb 6 Uncertainties also result from approximations and simplifications used in the development of hazard = maps or the inability to perform a more detailed inventory assessment. .-. : po Vulnerability can be assessed by considering the potential and performance of the built environment at different levels of hazard intensity (i.e. acceleration, flood depth, peak gust, etc.). Vulnerability functions were therefore developed ses ls for seismic hazards such as earthquake, hydro- meteorological hazards such as flood (both inland Legend and coastal floods) and hurricanes. Residential Exposure Value in USD | |0-2,283,122 Ia 2,283,123 - 6,372,360 37N ao3zn | D 6,372,370 - 13,757,970 L 13,757,971 - 23,499,005 Meters FEW Tran ru rw new Figure 26 - Distribution and Exposure Values of Residential Buildings in the study area == EMERGING Lo se — SUSTAINABLE NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 32 x EU TID B ERM [page 41] Vulnerability functions relate the damage or loss ° _ Probable Maximum Loss (PML) - an estimate of risk, has been used to map risk. magnitude to a specific intensity of a hazard. of losses that are likely to occur, considering Vulnerability functions are specific to the particular existing mitigation features, due to a single By mapping risk at the block level (see Figure 28 as structure type and must be assigned to each asset hazard event; an example) stakeholders have a better according to their characteristics. Figure 27 ° _ Loss Exceedance Curve - plots consequences understanding of where potential losses will be the presents an example vulnerability function created (losses) against the probability for different highest and where monies should be allocated for for coastal flooding for a low rise masonry events with different return periods; and risk reduction. All the areas and exposure structure. Appendix 6 presents the range of «Average Annualized Loss (AAL) - estimated categories that have a high and very high risk are vulnerability functions generated as part of this long-term value of losses to assets in any automatic choices for risk reduction measures. study. single year within the study area. Appendix 6 presents the full set of results from the loss estimates based upon the above risk metrics, The risk metrics described above, particularly, the and Table 7 provides stakeholders with an overview # AAL, can be used to provide an understanding of of impacts expected for each hazard and a summary ê 1 the spatial extent of losses and help to identify and of aggregate loses (maximum probable losses), $ 08 | | | ] } | prioritize the urban areas or localities that are which include economic losses for general É ue | | under risk. A street light indicator methodology, occupancy classes and infrastructure. Ë _ | where the colors on the map coincide with the level 5 $ 02 | _ sen pape nn on nn 0 U U Lé-#1 = TZ ns F ; _ AI T 00 10 20 30 40 50 60 vé | + Flood Depth, m Al À Figure 27 - Example of vulnerability function for 1, LL. Coastal Flood Hazard for low rise masonry structure Tel — Based upon these results, estimates of the losses | attributable to each hazard can then be made, and | the findings can be used to support local and | regional decision makers in their understanding of | | RS - en the potential impacts of each hazard and allow a Lesent D ____— | comparison of hazards by quantifying potential Foie isa {uec) | impacts. These estimates can be used to | Cr | understand relative risk from hazards and potential Jam ses - 18,043 MR 15.043 35.206 losses. 1 2-70 | nn. 4 5 re [L___] country Bounaary | The economic loss results are presented here using TT U TT © TT three risk indicators: Figure 28 - Risk Map: Average Annualized Loss for Earthquake Hazard, Residential “t#"% BIDB Ls NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 33 ÉUS ERM [page 42] Table 7 - Summary of Impacts and Loss Estimates by Hazard : Aggregate Economic ue us [mime . Damage to all structures (residential, commercial and industrial), reconstruction costs can be substantial (heavy walls poor reinforcement); . Loss of Life; . Loss of business and industrial production; Earthquake 2,500 . Loss of business production; : 1694.47 . Disruption of transport, failure to bridges; . Disruption to electrical network, substation damage; . Extensive damage to lifelines (i.e. water pipe networks, pumping stations, sewage treatment); Q Social displacement and unrest; . Extensive residential and commercial property damage, roof failures, water damages . Moderate damages to industrial property, short term loss of industrial production . Loss of life, Hurricane 1,700 . Emergency evacuation needs; 815.81 . Commercial - Extensive property damage, roof failures, water damages . Property damage to critical facilities, transportation infrastructure (associated flooding biggest threat to transportation infrastructure), substantial damage to electric distribution network, utility disruption . Loss of housing, particularly on areas where there are rapid flows; . Undercutting of rural residential buildings or failure along river banks, where the water may erode soil under foundations . Damage to houses, commercial buildings and critical facilities due to inadequate drainage infrastructure due to prolonged flooding; Flooding 100 . Damages to transportation infrastructure, especially in areas of confluence of rivers 10.78 (i.e. bridges, culverts), restricts transportation throughout study area. . Water and Waste Water Infrastructure - Inadequate drainage prone to blockage by silt, earthen debris, and many cases, garbage; damages to culverts; increase in contamination and secondary threats such as waterborne and vector-borne diseases . Extensive damage to coastal settlements, and supporting infrastructure. . Health and education facilities located within inundation areas prone to extensive damages Coastal se: : : Flooding 100 . Damages to transportation infrastructure, restricts transportation. 93.47 . Damages to water lines below ground level and well above ground level . Increase in contamination and secondary threats such as waterborne and vector- borne diseases #8 BIDB Lo av” NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 34 t< À IL F ERM [page 43] 5. FUTURE GROWTH PROJECTIONS information. Christophe Campus in Limonade (UHN-RHC); ° Housing developments (EKAM in Caracol: 750 Sections 3 and 4 have presented baseline 5.1 Future Development Projects Housing units and 535 plots, Feed the Poor i : 1 rojects along RN6 and fishing villages); and information that helps define the current The future development projects include on-going pro] 8 8 ges) interaction of natural and urban activities and and planned development projects, and GIS layers + Anexisting quarry. which can be used as a basis for determining were developed for the following, which are also . potential suitability for land use. The projection of shown in Figure 29: Planned Development Projects: future land use needs based on economic «Sea Port expansion in Cap Haïtien: development and growth, as well as population Committed Projects: © Mini e ù . d De N + increases are also needed to be inputted into the Ining Rbermic ol ang infrastructure k modelling process, and this section presents this e The Caracol industrial park (PIC); ponts ( es p ans ee ue S, t e The National University of Haïti Roi Henri treatment plants} and anis and wastewater e Projected housing (PIC resettlement called Calles or Faias: 572 housing units and Food for N PR the Poor in Terrier rouge: 242 housing plots). “er, EN ! "FX FF, 5.2 Population and Demographics 5.2.1 Overview A — ; 2 A detailed analysis of the population of the area of si D 2 study was performed to understand the dynamics L G ‘ 8 in place and better predict the impact of “he 5 development projects and investments and the ? ë future needs. This analysis focused on two É population projections to be calculated for the year > ) 2040: e î e Slow Growth: based on the assumption of # Hot 5 À non-fulfillment of identified development rer) projects (this assumes only the committed ==] Zone d'étude © Systéme de traitement d'eau en projet Im Océan Atlantique projects as described in Section 5.1are {T1 Limite commune © Centre de traitement des déchets 2 . = Section communale SW Schéma directeur de eau potable (DINEPA) delivered, and the planned projects do not Z bai Centrales th = UNH-RHC a Route secondaire Projets de logement Port . Concessions minières des points Récif corallien e Fast Growth: based on the assumption that Figure 29 - Development projects 3 projects get implemented as described above. Map source: Variables built from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). EMERGING Lo ets BIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 35 Voitiative ERM [page 44] The population assessment has been undertaken, 2020, the region would reach a population of the existing projections remain valid, and where utilizing, and where appropriate supplementing, the 505,743, representing a growth rate of 1.3% over appropriate update them based upon best available AIA Study and the CIAT Strategic Plan. The Institut the period. Of these projections, the NDC area data including from IHSI, which is the only source of Haïtien de Statistique et d'Informatique (IHSI) was would be characterized by a higher growth rate and reasonably accurate information and projections in used as the primary data source (IHSI 2004, 2009a, represent a total of 67,381 of the total projected Haiti. 2009b, 2009c and 2012; IHSI and CELADE / ECLAC population for 2020. A growth rate of 1.2% was 2008), although it is also acknowledged that IHSI then applied to the 2020 to 2030 period resulting in 5.23 Demographic Trends has made only two censuses during the period 1980 a total population of 598,587 in 2030, of which the Existing demographic trends and baseline data to 2003, and while a census is being planned for NDC would account for 79,753 of this total. The AIA exists for Haïti through a number of studies and 2014, data presented for recent years represents Study therefore projects a that between 2009 to assessments as follows: projections made by IHSI. 2030, based on historical growth rates the northern : . region would grow by 1.54 times. (i) National Demographic Trends (1950-2050). Data 5:22 AIA Population Projections | . : for national demographic trends comes from IHSI According to the AIA Study, and as illustrated in SE OU A ame EE MRATIE and CELADE / ECLAC 2008. In this paper, projections Table 8, a total of 387,339 people were living in the . 1. . are calculated using a methodology and a model northern area of Haiti in 2009, and specifically in proposed investments in the area progress. This developed by IHSI with the help of the CELADE and the NDC area, the population is 51,607 (shown as projection assumes a 2.15 growth rate reaching a the United Nations Fund for Population Activities the PIC node, comprising Limonade, Caracol, Terrier population of SC Mo ofthe our (UNFPA). The methodology is based on data from Rouge and Trou-du-Nord). was anticipate aroun the PIC and in Limons € the General Census of Population and Housing Trou-du-Nord, Terrier Rouge and Fort-Liberté, and conducted in Haiti in 2003 and recent economic and The AIA Study also projects that if the same growth the NDC would contribute 136,172 of this total. demographic surveys, and provides national rates of the recent past are extrapolated out to This ESCI study seeks to verify the extent to which population projections (1950 to 2050) and average growth rates for both the urban and rural Table 8 — Northern Region Population and Growth Projections (source AIA Study) populations. The key trends from this work predicts strong growth in both urban and rural areas, boruanon [ae a sn although rates of urbanization are much higher [__ Baseine | HighGrowth | Baseine | HighGrowth | than rural, and a gradual lowering of the growth rate. These national trends are reflected at the local level and in the study by urban growth and the . slow decline of the rural population area. fi) Demographic trends at the municipal level (2000-2015). The data from IHSI analyses (IHSI [ui Ge rares rouge À me | sos | is | is | ue | 2009b) presents projections ofthe total, urban and [subtotat for Pic Node À 51607 [67381 | si63 [79753 | 617 | rural population at the departmental and [vie de Sasnte savane 7 nas | 2085 1 2 | 2200 [7 504 | municipality level and the trends for keytowns in the north are shown in Figure 30 and Figure 31. This °\ data at the municipal level does not extend beyond 2015. EC 2 7 D 77 ON CT TT MNT TE HN EMERGING + Lo a SUSTAÎNABLE 5 IDB \ NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 36 tnitiative ERM [page 45] 1.74 90.00 1% 80.00 168 70.00 1.66 60.00 1.64 | | 50.00 MMTNENNENON =: 1.60 158 30.00 PEER ES OO OA) CL L & à NV S R& S - Ne ES NS c œ Caracol Terrier Rouge Quartier Morin Limonade Trou du Nord m 2000-2005 m2005-2010 m2010-2015 m2000 m2005 m2010 m2015 Figure 30 - Average annual growth of total population Figure 31 - Urbanization rate in the municipalities of the study area Source: IHSI 2009b Source: IHSI 2009b Migration trends over time play an important role of PIC workers live in Caracol and EKAM, and the (ii) Increasing urbanization - the data above can be in demographic change. The data indicates that on remaining 82.6% live in other towns of the used to calculate the rate of urbanization for key average, 10.76% of the population of the Departments of the North and Northeast. municipalities in the north, which reinforces the municipalities in the north are migrants, and trend of towards concentration of the population in specific to the study area, migration rates of 6.8%, Table 9 - Place of residence of PIC workers urban centers. 9.25% and 16.8% applied for Trou-du-Nord, Terrier = — Lieu de résidence [Nombre | % | Rouge and Caracol respectively. The results also - 524 Migration Trends show that the average percentage of migrants is Understanding migration patterns to urban centers higher in urban than in rural areas, and that most and rural areas allows a better prediction of future migrants in the north are from local adjacent | Trou-du-Nord | 66 | 2170 | population trends and projections. Migrants are departments (6.86%) compared to departments considered those persons whose place of birth is from other regions of Haïti (2.61%) and abroad | Quartier Morin | 54 | 1% | not the place of current residence, and the number (0.81%). and percentage of migrants is an important indicator of the attractiveness of a given locality. Daily Commuting To better understand migration flows associated Long-Term or Permanent Migrations with project implementation, IDB collected data for l'Etranges | se | 1# | The General Census of Population and Housing the PIC workers was also analyzed (IDB 2012). This 2003 (IHSI 2003) contains useful information on data details the residency of employees, and can be migration including place of birth and length of consider as a sample of the working population in - - residence, as well as an analysis of migration flows. terms of daily commuting for employment. The data is summarized in Table 9 and shows that 19.4% NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 37 t<C EU ERM [page 46] 5.2.5 Population Projections population which in some cases includes Table 10 - Projections of the population base - several urban areas in the municipalit scenarios of slow growth The results of the previously presented data and party analyses was used as a baseline from which to Slow Growth Scenario AY develop projections of the population of the NDC Given the absence of municipal-level demographics Current | CIAT {Slow Growth) study area through to the year 2040. The projections for the post 2015 period, an adjusted 2012 2030 methodology was as follows: growth rate was calculated that takes into account (Slow) 1. Calculation of the annual growth rate from those trends observed at the national level (see Quarter de Bord de Section 5.2.3 above). The adjusted rate of growth er de Limonade 2000 to 2015 from the IHSI 2009b data h : : Quartier de Grand : : : : as been applied to the 2012 population and . 8,379 | 12,156 | 15,449 | 19,702 introduced in Section 5.2.3, noting that the : : : Bassin Lo: : projected through to generate population estimates Quartier de Petite disaggregated ti resent the different : : : Isaggregate to repl sent ie aiiteren implementation of development projects, as shown Ville de Trou-du- urban centers in this study. in Table 10 Nord 24,154 | 33,697 | 44,534 | 56,792 2. Adjustment of the annual growth rate (from 1 . . : : : . a em High Growth scenario are re Dos. Ar adlusted The IA Study and the CAT Strategic Plan estimate BTOWEN TALE Was carcu Y WE: the demographic impacts of a similar scenario Ville de Fort Liberte ° Calculate difference {variation) between where development projects would be Ville de Limonade the annual growth rate at the national implemented These estimates sssumes strong ed . regional planning controls to limit the expanding level: 2005-2015 vs. 2015-2040. lati Ville de Quartier Le : Lu population and growth of the towns and urban . 4,125 5,409 11,886 | 16,737 + Application of this variation in growth inf fthe devel f Morin rate for 2010-2015 for the centers in favor of the development of a new Ville de Terrier municipalities to generate an adjusted planned town in the Champin area (Nouvelle Rouge IRE7S | 2899 | 2986 | 32677 growth rate Caracol). The approach adopted for this ESCI Study Ville du Cap Haïtien : h sumed a more realisti oach of i î ° Usingthe adjusted growth rate, 25 assUMec à More Tea SHC APProac . Ville de Sainte 1,712 | 2,300 | 2,277 | 2,320 lculate the projection of municipal recognizing the limited governmental capacity to Suzanne opu ion ura u n)in sut Dos to obtai stimates for 2030 and assumes to some extent that existing trends 0 0! in esti n n " 2040 continue. The trends are defined by both . settlement in already developed areas The adjusted rate of growth has been applied to the ° Populations in 2030 and 2040 are (agglomeration) and commuting patterns, and have 2012 population and projected through to generate calculeted as the base population ofthe taken into account the current growth trends at the population estimates for 2030 and 2040 in a study with the assumption that no local level, as well as data on migration flows (long- scenario of non-implementation of development development projects are implemented term and daily commuting). projects, as shown in Table 11. (slow scenario). . k 5.3 Urban Area Needs 3. Disaggregation of the of the communal urban population agglomeration. For the urban The area needs for urban development can be municipalities, it provides the total urban estimated based on the previously presented population projections and also the household + GIDB L9 à + NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 38 t< IL ERM [page 47] numbers, average household size and housing density target. Table 11 - Projections of the population base - scenarios of High growth ata/ ciar | SCI 2040 Current 2030 Projections 2012 (High) (High B Growth) Quartier de Bord de Mer de Limonade 1,319 4,617 7,589 Quartier de Grand 8,379 32,482 27,949 Bassin 93,586 181,779 188,199 Anse Ville de Trou-du- 24,154 57535 80,564 Nord Ville de Caracol 2,979 7,098 9,940 Ville de Derac 1,839 4,172 6,760 Ville de Ferrier 8,165 15,029 27,234 Ville de Fort Liberte 20,399 48,596 74,982 Ville de Limonade 17,556 39,279 101,010 Ville de 64,524 | 118,767 | 215,229 Ouanaminthe Ville de Quartier 2,125 7,136 23,743 Morin Ville de Terrier 13,876 32,260 46,285 Rouge Ville du Cap Haïtien | 163,222 317,061 328,235 Ville de Sainte 1,712 3,034.00 3,290 Suzanne 425,835 | 868,846 | 1,141,008 The number of households was estimated by dividing the projected populations by the average household size, which was taken from IHSI data (IHSI 2012). This was performed for the baseline scenario and the high-growth scenario, and is detailed in Section 7.3 where the capacity of the existing townships to accommodate further growth and development is further explored. #5 GIDB à + NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 39 t< IL ERM [page 48] 6. GEOSPATIAL MODEL between the conservation of nature and economic consider of equal value each element that was development. The aim of all is to carry out this identified as an attraction or a restriction, such that 6.1 Introduction process by means of ‘comprehensively’ and no one element exercised a greater influence over ‘equitably’ considering all the elements that the others. In a situation in which the scope of the As stated in the Section 1, the goal of this study is to represent both pursuits, such that no one element work had been larger, the logical approach would determine the areas in the NDC that should be ends up receiving, supporting or ‘suffering’ the have been to survey the area of study and engage preferentially considered for future urban growth negative effects of another. This is the basis of the different communities so as to identify as to the and settlement, in such a way that this contributes modern planning and is what regional planners specific forces that ‘pull harder’ than others and to a sustainable setting. The fundamental principle have called multi criteria decision analysis. The ‘art’ provide this as the balancing criteria. is that the areas in which future urban settlement of planning has always resided on how that balance occurs should be those that result from protecting is demonstrated to have been reached in a As Joerin and Thériault (2001) demonstrate there is or setting aside key areas for cultural, ecological particular situation. a vast array of ‘models’ or ‘approaches’ to the and environmental reasons, including those that question of which elements and criteria to use in are exposed to natural phenomena whose In the past this type of analysis was carried out with the running of the multicriteria tool. However, the occurrence could not be mitigated, thus threating tools and references that had less precision that aim of ERM in this particular project was not to life. today, but in both cases we are faced with the same adhere to any model in particular, but simply elements that represent the forces of economic produce the land suitability map that would result This section provides an explanation of the method development and nature conservation. Roads, from considering all elements in equality of and criteria used in this ESCI Study to define schools, agglomerations, continue to be the circumstance. By applying this approach we are suitable areas for future growth. The approach elements that attract a settler, particularly for the ensuring the arrival to at least the closest builds upon the AIA and the CIAT studies by: way in which they positively impact the family or representation of the balanced result that would be firm’s economic bottom line. And wetlands, woods, drawn with or without the modelling tool —- hence + Anumber of the elements used to judge the areas of bio-diversity are all elements that could representing what would likely be the picture if it suitability of land for development were also attract the settler but should be preserved or had been drawn following traditional mapping and defined with greater precision, through the protected because of their natural value to society. planning techniques. work on risk and vulnerability as well as the update of a number of ‘layers’ provided by ESCI Land suitability analysis through GIS modeling is a In determining which areas would be and CIAT. well-known computational tool that helps provide recommendable for human settlement in a given e The ‘combination’ of all the pieces of planners with a more precise delimitation of city and region, the approach carried out uses a information (or ‘factors’) which is the basis of a different elements as well as a clear delimitation of geospatial modeling process that simulates what is planner’s decision about where to allocate areas that would result through a simulated commonly known as attraction and restriction development and where to protect, was not combination of all those elements under pre- factors. The attraction factors represent those empirical but undertaken through a geo-spatial determined combination criteria. In other words, it elements that will encourage and attract modelling process. is a computational tool that rigorously applies multi development by virtue of the services or value they criteria decision analysis. provide. For example, roads are a strong attracting 6.2 The Geospatial Modelling Process factor for development given the access they .. . Because of the scope of the study and the limited provide, and similarly the presence of utilities due In determining which areas ought to be : ne ue k k ° amount of information in Haïti, in the Northern to the service they provide. Employment areas and transformed from their natural state to a developed Development Corridor study ERM made a social infrastructure facilities can also be stroni state, communities, planners and decision makers fundamental, very conservative assumption: L 8 are faced with the challenge of reaching a balance ; : attractors. Conversely, restriction factors are those “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 40 PS TE ERM [page 49] elements that either needs protection due to the latter scenario can be viewed as embracing modelling has sought at all times to recognize the inherent value they provide e.g. areas of high sustainable planning principles in that it supports importance of restrictions, and therefore respect biodiversity, cultural sites or aquifer recharge areas, conservation and protection efforts and focuses and avoid the defined restrictions. In modeling or are areas where development should be actively development to appropriate areas. In this context, terms, this means that the restrictions have been discourage e.g. areas prone to natural hazards such growth and new settlements tend to be steered ‘maximized’ so that their influence in the selection as flooding. The baseline information presented in towards already developed areas. of suitable land is very clear. The computational Sections 3 and 4, as well as the future growth and process selects and creates a hierarchy of all the development considerations presented in Section 5, This approach is widely and almost universally areas with the highest degrees of attraction (from is used and categorized in terms of the attraction recognized as the way to build sustainable cities the baseline components that have been classified and/or restriction forces that they present. and regions, for it fosters the following key results: as such e.g. roads, infrastructure, schools), but discards, also hierarchically, all those areas affected By combining these attraction and restriction + lt promotes densification (better known as or controlled by factors that should impede or factors through geospatial modelling, an compact cities), which, in turn, makes the prevent settlement (e.g. locations prone to flood or understanding can be gained in terms of preferable delivery of water, sewer and other earthquake, or the presence rich agricultural soils and less preferable locations for future urban infrastructure, social services, transport much or biodiversity). development. Combining the attraction and less costly and much more effective on a per restriction factors is undertaken through the lens of capita basis. The modeling outputs are computer generated the different development or growth scenarios + _Ittends to increases the mixture of land uses maps of potential suitability based upon the applied being envisioned. per unit of area, which, in turn, increases the attraction and restriction factors. These outputs likelihood of pedestrian or bicycle home-to- are only a guide, and must not be used as a For example, in a location with limited controls and work travel, reduces travel distances that definitive output for suitability. The outputs must enforcement of urban growth, the influence of the reduce emissions and enhances health, and then undergo detailed analyses to then determine restrictions can be significantly diminished and others. potentially suitable development areas based on a therefore urban growth, or ‘sprawl’, can occur in an range of factors such as the capacity of the areas to ad-hoc and uncontrolled way which is responding 6.3 Modelling for the NDC absorb new development, current land uses, only to the attractions. This can produce a setting : . residential density and the general characteristics that tends to be marked by mid-density settlements The modelling approach used builds off successful of the locations. inside the urban areas, surrounded by expanding, similar studies undertaken by ERM and ESCI for the low to very-low density settlements. ‘Informal’ or metropolitan reglons of Cochabamba and Managua. The analysis also includes due consideration of the ‘extra-legal’ settlements also occur on empty, However, recognizing the unique characteristics of expected population growth of the region and a unprotected public lands or in areas with little value the NDC area and Haiti more broadly, a particular calculation is made to derive the time horizon in because of their exposure to natural hazards or lack focus has been placed on the speed and/or pace in which the suitable areas would be reaching of public utilities and /or social services. which development could occur in the area, capacity. This effort yields, among others, public recognizing both the recent growth due to policy recommendations with regards to the areas Conversely, in a scenario or strong planning investments like the PIC, and the many proposed of the territory that should be considered urban, controls and enforcement, the restriction factors additional development projects. for-expansion, and rural or peri-urban, and when, if can play a strong and influential role, limiting where . : at all, should their boundaries and general terms of future urban growth occurs. Growth will still follow In addition, the modelling approach has sought to development be modified. This work is further and respond to the attractions; however it will also integrate from the beginning sustainable planning described and presented in Section 6.7. respect and avoid designated restricted areas. This considerations (also referred to as smart or k ‘intelligent’ growth). This means that the geospatial “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI ai EU GTS ERM [page 50] The modeling process used involved the following 6.4 Restriction Factors Sub-Model stages and components: 6.4.1 Individual Restriction Factors 1. Using the baseline GIS information introduced in Sections 3, 4 and 5, attractions and The topics and elements considered restrictions for restrictions are determined. development in the NDC Study Area are illustrated in Figure 32, where there are twenty-two elements 2. Assigning attraction/restriction scales to each assessed. Having defined the elements and one of the variables based on analyses of each parameters that will be considered as restriction layer according to the degree to which they factors, then they are analyzed and processed using influence (or should influence) development. a geo-spatial model. The analysis of each element For example, based on professional judgment, enables an understanding of the degree with which a road such as RNG is given 1 km of influence it should be considered as a restriction in the on both sides, considering that there are no model, as well as ideas about the more suitable additional roads of similar status. Whereas areas for human settlement. This is explained secondary roads are given not more than 500 further for each key restriction factor in Table 12, m of influence, considering as is the case with and the individual restriction maps are presented in the roads that serve Trou-du-Nord that after detail in Appendix 7. that distance another road will probably appear. for attraction factors and restriction factors. These sub-models combine all of the relevant factors to create composite restriction and (0 Sri bornes ol attraction maps. This allows the “isolation” of the intensity of attraction from that of restriction, making it possible to understand the push and pull separately. EE combined to generate an overall model map, which shows the land suitability based on the Es nue Rae en attractiveness of locations where no to a — This model map is then translated into a general land use scenario, and used to define the general Ro are ec | Sel regional planning policies and actions on land use, . : . ne and road and transport infrastructure. This work is Figure 32 - Topics and elements considered to be restrictions for development presented in Section 7. #$s EMERGING= ei Los Le! SUSTAINABLE UZ NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 42 XX EU “IDB ERM [page 51] Table 12 - Summary of the main restriction factors ke | Topography Hydrology ve F4 CR A S Oh. — mes Fr } Ô } SUN € 3 de. | LS a S z un ou ee ue un CE = See ï me x Lo L LL Based upon the hazard maps generated in Section 4.4, A restriction layer was prepared based upon gradient of Restrictions were placed around key water features principally for coastal and inland flooding and seismic, a | slopes, where no restrictions were applied for slopes including reservoirs and watersheds for principal and restriction layer was developed, recognizing the higher under 12%, moderate restriction were designated for secondary rivers. A moderate level of restriction was risk areas identified along the coast due to coastal slopes between 12-25%, stricter restriction between 25- applied to the inferred Plaine du Nord/Massacre flooding and seismic, and the river corridors. 50% and a complete restriction for slopes over 50%. aquifer area. | Agricultural and Land Use Re SE res S— F F < A Prune à Re, z8\ >) 2 "À »; { > x ED LS C0 à A nn Gas, = ou L Es Key strategic ecosystems considerations including the The cultural heritage variable implies that the coastal Using the agricultural soils classifications, areas of high Three Bays Marine Park, the coastal mangrove areas areas are the most sensitive, as well as recognizing the quality soils were identified for protection, as well as and the highlands ecosystem, which has been identified | vernacular architecture areas and the sites identified in considering other land use factors such as mining for reforestation and watershed protection, were used each of the in or near the urban cores. A restrictions map concessions. to build a restriction layer. of these issues was constructed. Note: Further details of the resection layers and the full maps are contained in Appendix 7 2 EMERGING KE cs GIDB | NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 43 loitiative ERM [page 52] 6.4.2 Synthesis Map of the Restrictions Sub- taken for the relative influence of the different shows the most restricted areas and as the green model restriction factors was a 'conservative' or ‘balanced' becomes lighter, the less restricted the area one, which was to assign an equal influence to each becomes. The sub-model combines the levels of restriction, of 8 q each variable analyzed. The different elements element. The sub-model results are observed described in the ous oint were process spatially through a map of ten restriction levels. The This map shows the strong restrictions along the together inthe delire Û cation the approach map in Figure 33 show the final restrictions levels coastal areas and also in the mountainous areas in 8 8 app ° pp included in the suitability model. The darkest green the south of the study area. In between are Es & Bord de Mer de - EF” } Limonade L | /4 Etracoh Éé di 4 Jacquezy, 1e Ps D bn : LU >. À sg A. ETS oi pr LA d'a 2 7% LS ; ë SNA te 2 À KE 4 : 4: HS TNA TR Moins restreint C1 Zone d'étude Récif Corallien Océan Atlantique = EH = = M Complètement restreint Figure 33 - Map of the restrictions sub-model: composite of maximum restrictions Map source: Results from the restrictions sub-model. Variables built from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 44 t<C EU ERM [page 53] intermitted restricted areas, but also many areas of limited restriction. These clearly imply where would be more convenient or suitable for development to be located. 6.5 Attractions Factors Sub-Model The attractions sub-model includes variables Sous-modèle: Facteurs d'attractivité related to existing agglomeration, access to roads, public facilities, social services and access to attraction factors that will be considered by an _— router, publics sociaux activités économiques _ disponibles individual, household or firm when locating within Empreinte Free Re : Gras am the area of study, as shown in Figure 34. While the urbaine 2013 principales d'eau IE IRIS, minières publiques importance of public lands and land value is noted, ——4 the absence of any available information on this Mauss eos Electricité Eduéation res Attes Ahdres | topic has resulted in its exclusion from the model. L | The selected attractiveness factors are discussed as Déchets solides follows. Eaux usées Institutionnel 6.5.1 Individual Attraction Factors Figure 34 - Topics and elements considered to be attractions for development Having defined the elements and parameters that Legend: Boxes that appear highlighted in red are components for which the identification of geographical data was will be considered as attraction factors, then they not possible by ERM are analyzed and processed using the geo-spatial application. The analysis of each element enables an understanding of the degree with which it should be considered in the model, as well as ideas about the more suitable areas for human settlement. This is explained further for each key attraction factor in Table 13, and the individual attraction maps are presented in detail in Appendix 8. > EMERGING Lo “#5 GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 45 Initiative ERM [page 54] Table 13 - Summary of the main attraction factors Public Utilities ALT 77 L. | L ET ar EE 3 LR: } 4 | ! D D | } Æ * D x: | 2e 0 5 T& Q- «12 RARE MT All the cities, towns, hamlets and even smaller The modeling exercise included primary and secondary Public utilities included areas with access to water and groupings of houses were considered as roads. The primary road was modelled to exercise sewer systems, water points, and areas with electricity. agglomerations, which are an attraction feature for recognize its greater influence as an attractor comparedto | Each element, whether a line or a point, was modeled to individuals and families. secondary roads. exercise its influence Employment and Economic Activities er Me 1 Ko TE i as Social services included schools, universities, hospitals, | Economic activities that were brought together in the and similar facilities, and the attractiveness also model included industries, mines, banks, agro industrial considered the relevant township or community in operations, retail centers, and others, recognizing both which they serve local and regional attractiveness. Note: Further details of the resection layers and the full maps are contained in Appendix 8 2 EMERGING NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 46 loitiative ERM [page 55] 6.5.2 Synthesis Map of the Attractiveness Sub- The different elements described in the previous 35 shows the final sub-model results. model point were also processed together in the modelling application. The approach taken was a Having defined th e restrictions and analyzed their : E PP ï ï PP : 7 conservative' or 'balanced' one, which was to components, each variable was processed, analyzed assien an equal influence to each element. Fiqure and consolidated into the attractions sub-model. 8 q "19 cquezy} à SÉ 1 j _ 2 | “RS” mp : | . ‘ Z = no, À a H w 3 L ; 8 d . Er : a a ré RS * in : ra Te 5 S PA 0 £ 25 dd 10 Moins attrayant [2] Zone d'étude Récif Corallien bn Océan Atlantique Plus attractif Figure 35 - Map of the attractions sub-model: composite of maximum attractiveness factors Map source: Results from the attractiveness sub-model. Variables built from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. == EMERGING = SE «HS GIDB © NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 47 initiative. ERM [page 56] 6.6 Future Development Projects Sub- Model | à The future development projects sub-model É ne includes on-going and planned development Le projects as described in Section 5.1. Four main ; layers were developed for existing or on-going + development projects: Caracol industrial park (PIC), y National University of Haiti Roi Henri Christophe “ Campus in Limonade (UHN-RHC), housing (EKAM in ê Caracol: 750 Housing units and 535 plots, feed the EI poor projects along RN6 and fishing villages) and an $ existing quarry. . Four additional layers were developed for planned % development projects: Sea Port expansion in Cap & Haïtien, mining concessions, infrastructure projects = _ Li (thermic plants, water networks, solid waste … Moins attrayant DD Zone d'étude treatment plants and wastewater treatment plants) Ban Océan Atlantique and projected housing (PIC resettlement called Calles or Faias): 572 housing units and food for the poor in Terrier rouge: 242 housing plots). PRESENT Figure 36 - Attraction factors: Development Projects Appendix 9 shows the results of each one of the variables analyzed to compose the development Map source: Results from the attractiveness sub-model. Variables built from geographic information layers by projects sub-model. Each image shows the AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), attractiveness levels of one or a group of OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from : : Lo satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013 development projects according to their impact and geographic location. The sub-model results are observed spatially through a map of nine attractive- maximizing the restrictions (in order to protect key The model results of combining the three ness levels as seen in Figure 36. ecosystems and resources) and maximizing the components are shown in Figure 37 with levels of attractiveness factors recognizing the importance attraction and restriction that range from the most 6.7 Suitability Analysis they plan in the development area. attractive areas for development, appropriate for To determine the areas that should to be . urbanization, to the most restricted for : ; . Combining the three sub-models presented above: development, and therefore adequate for the considered for sustainable human settlement in the restrictions, attractiveness factors and development protection of natural areas. future, a geo-spatial model has been used that projects, the geo-spatial model combines all simulates the interaction of attraction and variables relevant to identify areas potentially As highlighted at the beginning of this section, this restriction factors. This study's focus has utilized a suitable for urban development as well as rural and analysis provides an indication only of potential proposed sustainable growth scenario through natural land use. land suitability, and cannot be used as a definitive NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 48 t<C EU ERM [page 57] result with respect to where development can and agglomeration is beginning to appear, or how the cannot occur. EKAM — University of Limonade node is also beginning to create a pole of attraction, or where in What this map is depicting is what the regional and the PIC area will new settlement likely occur. urban planners, as well as decision makers, should bear in mind when establishing where to locate the The map also indicates how, if a new settlement developments that would come in the future as pole was to be considered apart from the existing well as the services that the growing and migrating townships, the above mentioned areas ought to be population would demand. considered first and foremost. Interestingly, the presence of a light green zone in between the two On one end, the red areas are those in which roads connecting Trou-du-Nord and the PIC tells us development would be more attractive because that these are amongst the more valuable they would be those areas in which a settling family agricultural lands of the area, from the points of or business would have the greatest levels of access view agrological quality of soils, vegetation health to services, infrastructure, the economy of the as well as the fact that they are being utilized agglomerations, transport services and others. And precisely for the uses for which they have a they would also be the places in which the natural vocation. resources would be less affected. On the other end, the green areas would be those that would need Finally, the map is clear in defining an inverted ‘arc’ the greatest protection, for they are the ones in of lands that could be useful for development which most of the elements considered as between Terrier Rouge, Grande Bassin, Perches and restrictions are operating and in the greatest Ouanaminthe. These areas would be attractive for degree. development not only because of their agrological and soil conditions (less good for agriculture) but Consequently, the areas in between the dark green also because they would be least exposed to and the dark red zones, would be the threshold in natural phenomena, would traverse almost no which the planner and decision maker would have valuable ecological asset areas, and therefore to base in order to define what areas could be would provide the ideal environment for allocated for development and the degree to which developing roads, infrastructure and human they would affect natural resources or be affected settlement. by natural hazards. For example, when and if considering that Terrier Rouge should expand because it does not have the area to provide housing for future generations inside its urban setting, it is clear from this map that this should be to the south of the urban area. The map is also key at indicating how the city of Limonade should be looking at planning the areas to the East and Southeast, where a major “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 49 t<C IL ERM [page 58] Lx + Pa — < Dngtte F 25 # D res F LA ; NT :. à r EAST E VV D NET Ch Ve 2 1 PAPA CAE i où k | ue, s ne. 1 Pate EC € FE Ps PO DA RU NT , AS AL # = É vi Cr e RE Æ #2 4 v . PA i * P 7 Le PME D: . LAS ei BEL ë C4: L- ke Le Fe H +. .} œ : d (re PS se je a = Of à e w Ÿ Lo # " ER: Cr, ie: di an r É , »" We S à à NET DC CS PS PSS DO, 7 S Plus attractif C2] Zone d'étude Récif Corallien In Océan Atlantique = Plus restreint Figure 37 - Land Suitability Model Based on Attractions and Restrictions Map source: Results from the attractiveness sub-model. Variables built from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. 277$ EMERGING" (D REFRESR Los «ES GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 50 À nnitstie ERM [page 59] 7. DEVELOPMENT OF A SUSTAINABLE + Adiscussion of the Three Bays Marine Marine and coastal ecosystems and cultural GROWTH SCENARIO Park and the associated protection heritage areas should be protected as part of the opportunities and development Three Bays Park management structure. Traditional Based upon the results presented from the baseline restrictions. economic activities, such as fishing, agriculture and analysis and the geo-spatial modelling, the salt exploitation should continue inside the park, preferable options for future development and 7.1 Land Suitability but should be regulated to ensure compatibility growth of the NDC can be explored, with the aim of | . . with ecosystem recovery and conservations efforts. iootoc As presented in Section 6 and Figure 37, the results : : : providing insights on where and how should future . . À 7. Sustainable tourism focused on ecological ion: ur of the geo-spatial modeling provides insight on the : : : human settlement occur. Building in sustainability . . conservation and heritage preservation could : : most attractive areas for development (appropriate : : Lu considerations, future development should seek to . . become the main economic activity if the : : for urbanization) through to the most restricted for : contribute to and make use of the economic devel jate for th | f conservation efforts are successful and water opportunities of the region as a whole; not evelopment (appropriate for the pratection o supply and energy networks are consolidated. : O natural areas). In general, these results can be compromise opportunities in other areas such as L. " . : h divided in three major zones: The northern coast 7.12 South Highland. agricultural development, environmental : LE outnern Highlands preservation; and not compromise the lives of and the southern highlands that ought be people who could be exposed to serious natural predominantly dedicated to ecosystem recovery; The highlands ecosystems to the south of the study phenomena and the central plains, where most of the areas area should be restored as part of a watershed ‘ suitable for development are concentrated. The management priority. The highlands have potential This section presents the key findings from this hydric system, running from the southern highlands Hi watershed ea Paseo d 6 : i i reforestation and the restoration of the ric work and specifically covers the following: to the Atlantic Ocean, works like a transversal | UNE Y element connecting the three zones. system, both crucial for the sustainability of the ° Captures key findings and recommendations LL. . . NDC. from the geo-spatial modelling presented in This is illustrated in Figure 38, which shows an initial : : Section 6 based on land suitability: classification of the appropriateness of land use, Urban development in the highlands should be Considers the existing f d Y; ds of and these broad areas are discussed further below. restricted and agriculture should be restricted to . hum ers “ e existing ere an trends o di focus on ecosystem recovery. Charcoal and Cet 51 ne ° on presente m 7.1.1 Northern Coast Protection construction materials production should be pe : }, an t ton th ensi ication, Marine and coastal ecosystems and cultural replaced by silviculture and sustainable forestry. Wnic Leu Far d Le ton the sn areas h k | th c Un Id b n ura d whil However, the success of these measures may proposed for eve opment and settlement; me ee a one À e “es sl . à h proneel a e depend on the capacity to generate and distribute e. pores ne main townships and rames to re ME 8 u ï e ee nc \ ; ora de a e energy to the communities across the NDC, in order etermine their capacity to accommodate imona e, En Bas Saline, Caracol, aquezy an to reduce the demand of charcoal. new development; Phaéton, and in general coastal areas in the north, ° Considers the approach to settlement under fall into the area where many of the restrictions the ‘slow’ and ‘high’ population growth overlap, such as the Three Bays Marine Park, scenarios; coastal flooding zones, cultural heritage areas, ° Explore in more detail the area of influence or marine and coastal strategic ecosystems and high ‘neighborhood’ of the PIC and the potential agrological soil classes. Urbanization in the northern for a new development; and coast should be restricted, ideally limited to the current footprints. à + NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 51 t<C IL ERM [page 60] DE F ; a ’ f FN = \4 TES? Ç & F; " 4 . 4 FN | L É q . # | } f) Les = EVE À à. à £ (L > L à IG a J b, ‘ : & œ A + + J a + me) pe £ on) “4 , & Æ 4 » À ï £ TE, er , à Ee. 1} F1 N 7 F TA } EE * U L F den. ht VF FRS CPS, E EL : | ° v; Lo > 4 E. : Î 7 s SN { L Fu ) e À # ” CES Î K Ê ÿ —_— BE; à Fe t# SE : L MANS CE. “De ‘à! C2] Zone d'étude En Forèt MM Développé à haute intensité ER Plan d'eau mm Développé à moyenne intensité Les zones humides boisées Développé faible intensité M Les zones humides émergeant Espace ouvert développé Marais salants ER Cuitivé Récif corallien Pâturage ' EM Océan Atlantique EN Marécages a vegetation herbacee Figure 38 — Optimized land use map Map source: Results from the attractiveness sub-model. Variables built from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 52 E< EU ERM [page 61] 7.13 The Central Plains characterized by townships, hamlets, farms, ‘linear’ However, as will also be seen in the township . settlements along roads, and planned settlements. analyses that follow, there are clearly visible empty Development should concentrate in the central : : : : . . . Section 3.1 has already provided more details on lands throughout the townships. plains around existing settlements, balanced with : : : the recovery of agriculture. Suitable areas for these patterns as part of the baseline discussion. VV Icuiture. Sul n . cl: ñ : isti i i develo ae on entrats in the communes of Given the land suitability analysis, with the results Based on these characteristics, in this study has : p . supporting land protection (for both natural made two important planning assumptions: Limonade and Terrier Rouge and to a lesser degree : . : in Trou-du-Nord and Caracol. The best areas for resource protection and agriculture promotion), rbanization are south of Limonade towards understanding the existing townships and urban + The first is that as societal effort would be u Izatl u I JW A " ifi i Buclair. between the urban core of Limonade and areas, and their capacity to absorb future demand undertaken to promote the densification of UClal W u Lel I : . : i he UNI d ‘ h £th for land based on the growth projections in already built plots of land. However, to the UNH-RHC and EKAM; southwest of the PIC, population becomes a very important remain in the conservative side, it has been between Terrier Rouge and Gran Bassin and east of consideration. assumed that throughout the 25 year period Trou-du-Nord. of analysis, this effort will yield an additional The central plains are also the area best suited for From social and economie perspectives, the most 20% homes in those areas. ! ur : : 4: ; “bi agriculture Food ality agrological soils occ a convenient approach to providing settlement e The secondis that the empty lands within the icuiture; uall IC: [l u sat . + s n : : ñ 8 Le 18 4 Y 28r0 08 Py opportunities for the growing and the migrating urban setting and in the areas immediately significant proportion of the central area. Ideally, : : : : : Le population of the NDC is to seek them in the human adjacent would be developed to the highest the urbanization process of the NDC should . Lai : : : : Hiocs Lu : settlements that already exist. Existing possible density under the constraints posed increase densities in the existing urban footprint to : à : nn . agglomerations provide many attractions such as by the local market. optimize the use of land, balanced with urban and ne : rural economic activities open space, public access to greater opportunities for exchanging : : facilities and social servi e d goods, services and knowledge, as well as better To this end, the Zorange Housing Expo has been Ciiti l vices. : n . " : i (l public services of water, sanitation, education and referenced. This was an effort undertaken following i the 2010 disaster by GOH in collaboration with the 714 The Hydric System health, than those that would be found in more ! Y k rural areas. IDB, the Clinton Foundation and other The hydric system, including its riparian forests, organizations, with the goal of presenting good should be restored to connect all areas from the 7.2.2 Current Density Patterns examples of housing that could be used in the re- highlands to the coast. The hydric system, running LL . construction. The project was not only intended at ; : The general pattern of urbanization in the main : : from the southern highlands to the Atlantic Ocean ._? : . . offering such examples, but also to be configured as : : existing urban areas is made by a single house in a . : : in the north, works like a transversal element ee . a a new community. Several multi-housing proposals : L Lo : small parcel in which approximately 50% of the plot : connecting the three zones, its protection is crucial. : . : were built that could be thought for the NDC (see is occupied by the dwelling. The number of parcels : : : h be found i h f land typicall Figure 39), and a few were dwellings raised from 7.2 Densification that may be found in one hectare of land typically the ground, a solution that would be interesting for ranges between 50 and 60, except the case of : : : . : PT : . flood-prone areas. Interestingly, in the Zorange Limonade, in which the density is 105 dwelling units : 7.2.1 Settlement Patterns and Growth . k community, where the expo took place, there are per hectare. (This will be demonstrated in the : : : : . LL . . k : multi-dwelling complexes that are inhabited, as can While the majority of the Study Area can be detailed analyses of the different townships). With Le : : ou k be clearly visible from the lower center image. considered rural, the urbanization and an average 4.56 persons per household (as is the agglomeration patterns are important to case for Limonade), this equates to a population understand in order to provide insights on future density between 228 and 456 inhabitants per growth opportunities. These patterns are hectare. à + NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 53 t<C IL ERM [page 62] : TRE GC è ue t a, Mat | = ; + | !ssancrA A ” : , CR PNE ge Source: http://archrecord.construction.com/news/2012/01/Haiti-Communities-Expo-slideshow.asp?slide=42. Photo credits: Jenna M. McKnight x EMERGING Lo es GIDB \ NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 54 Voitiative ERM [page 63] According to the promoters of the Expo (see 7.3.2 Approach These two analyses are further elaborated on below reference noted on photograph), each unit had to : : in Sections 7.3.3 and 7.3.4. ue . To answer this question, two analyses were be developed within a budget that allowed either dertaken for each one of the main townshios in : : : its purchase by donor organizations focused in n follows: p 7.3.3 Net Land Available for Residential providing shelter to Haitians such as USAID, or the s area as 10 '0WS: Development purchase by working families with capacity to 1. Establishing the net available land for building In order to establish the availability of land for each constitute a loan. Although the Expo was successful new residential developments inside the town, the following analyses took place, which are in demonstrating this, it was the absence of urban setting, taking into account two factors: also illustrated in Figure 40: resources to develop infrastructure and services what prevented the Expo from becoming a living o The demand generated by imagining that 1. Definition of a polygon that could be regarded community. the activities taking place inside areas of as the ‘urbanized area’ or ‘urban perimeter’ k high risk would relocate to non-risk areas; of the township. This was traced following the These experiences demonstrate that not only n and existing built form at the periphery of the technically but also financially there is a possibility o Adistribution of land uses reflective of town, including what could be defined as to develop multi-dwelling solutions in the country. ‘good practice’ quantitative distribution of property lines of the built units, as defined A solution such as the one depicted in the lower left land uses. from remote imagery plus other sources of image (of Figure 39) could perfectly be carried out information such as Google Earth and the in all townships of the area, which would result in 2. The calculation, in terms of number of Open Street Map project. the density of 100 to 150 dwelling units per gross households that could fit inside the urban hectare of land, or 150 — 200 dwellings per net setting. This, in turn, is comprised by two 2. Land use distribution, including areas hectare of land, that is factoring areas for roads, analyses: occupied by roads, woods, public open parks and community services. spaces, institutional facilities, commercial . . o The capacity inside the net available land facilities, industrial operations, and residential Consequentiy, an aspiration of a density of about defined in the previous point. settings. As a result a more precise measure 150-200 dwelling units per hectare of net existing © The capacity inside parcels of land that could be achieved of the areas that could be urban areas would be a reasonable measure. currently exhibit residential buildings and considered as ‘open’ or ‘not developed’ k ne . therefore have one or more households within the urban setting. These areas could be 7.3 Capacity of Existing Townships currently living inside the premises. considered as ‘prime developable land’, since 731 Introduction . they are located inside the setting with the It was assumed that this will be the case most complete system of public utilities, A key question in the pursuit of sustainability in the because of the predominant pattern of land social services, commercial and employment northern development corridor is whether the subdivision and residential settlement inside opportunities that the region has to offer, existing townships can afford, and to what extent, urban areas and the fact that when a family that is, the urban setting. the increased population that organic growth and grows into an additional household, the latter migration are expected to bring to the region. This usually develops its living space through 3. Land use break down of the areas that would should also be understood in terms of the two construction of additional rooms or levels of be affected by floods according to the risk and population scenarios developed in this study, the the original house, or a new building on the vulnerability analyses presented in Section 4. ‘slow’ and ‘fast’ growth scenarios. original parcel. This allows a determination of the demand in “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 55 t<C IL ERM [page 64] Urban perimeter. Defined by the farthest D rer nes including terms of these high risk areas that can then establishing how many households could fit inside be added to the growth demand from future the net available residential areas and how many Area defined as currently urbanized including growth, should a program for progressive could do so inside areas currently exhibiting buildings and some garden / orchard activity. relocation be implemented for settlements in residential buildings. As discussed in Section 7.2.2, Areas defined as ‘empty’ showing high-risk areas, examples of multi-dwelling and raised dwelling independent parcels with no construction prototypes (such as those developed at the Zorange Area defined as expansion, selected on the 4. Land use outside flood area. This is the result Expo) that a reasonable measure would be 175 basis of proximity and on the results of the of subtracting from the gross areas calculated dwelling units per hectare. This is the density that is modeling in the second step described above, the areas applied to the net available lands. defined as prone to flooding as determined in i | FT Sections 4.4.3 and 4.4.4. This is very In order to determine the capacity of areas y important because it gives a measure of the currently exhibiting residential buildings, the Z TZ ‘true’ area that is available for future following have been calculated for each township: // la development by avoiding risk areas. € 4 e The average number of dwellings per hectare. © Ÿ 5. An approximation to the distribution of urban This was done by selecting two to three Z 4 land uses within the ‘true’ area previously sample areas in each town, one near or in the DE \ mentioned, under a ‘good practice’ scenario. center, and the others in the periphery. The Z LA C This considers that roads, wooded areas and exact number of buildings inside each sample NZ GR 24 public open space account for 45% of the area was counted and divided into units of PU area, solely institutional and solely one hectare to arrive to the number of 4. LÉ PRE SI commercial uses account for 10% of the area, dwellings per hectare. 2 CUS industrial for 3% of the area, and 42% for ° The number of dwellings per hectare for each Z és 28 VAR residential activities, which would be mixed sample area was added and divided by the 4 Le D with commercial and other complementary number of sample areas, to obtain the £ +. ss 44 uses. These approximate percentages are average number of dwellings per hectare for 2 ée NCA a] based on professional judgment and the town. The average number of dwellings É D SAR ÉpT; experience from cities in Latin America. per hectare in the different townships ranges . es 27: Z | , between 60 and 105 dwelling units. /S CZ 4 By applying these percentages to the ‘true Consequently, in calculating the number of 49 D 3 available area previously identified, the net houses for future projections, the average S ne available lands for residential developments was is obtained for each town was applied. T2 PES LS Re obtained for within the urban area, which is ° From the same polygons used as sample to Le à x 7 NA referred to as net available residential areas. determine the average number ofresidential s GNT, DS D, 2 >< Le . Le units, the total built surface as well as the Zs à HIS, y Es Establishing the Capacity for Additional average built surface was calculated. This . . Residential Units allowed the average footprint size of one Figure 40 - Detail of elements analyzed for each one of à | the townships in the study area. The capacity of each township to hold additional hectare of developed residential land and the residential units has been defined based upon average open or unbuilt land within the same “##% GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 56 te EU ERM [page 65] hectare to be calculated. These two were more attractive for development per the results of comprising 44% of the total, followed by residential found to range between 3,000 and 6,000 m the modeling process. areas with 39%, roads with 8%, institutional in the case of the built footprint and 7,000 to services with 4%, wooded areas with 2% and 4,000 m° for the open or unbuilt area. 7.4 Capacity in Trou-du-Nord commercial and public open space with 1% each. A conservative stance on the amount of houses that 74.1 Total area and land use distribution 74.2 Area and land uses under high risk exist and will emerge inside this setting was taken, conditions * : w gens ! rs mew Asillustrated in Figure 41 and supporting Table 15, : assuming one household per building, and that only k . . ne : : the township of Trou-du-Nord comprises an urban However, as demonstrated in Table 14, 59.9 20% additional houses would likely appear in the 25 : : area of 212.91 hectares of land. In terms of surface, hectares, which equal 28% of the total urban area years through to 2040 covered by this study. For de que | . Lou bou . : : : Lo : it is divided in order of size by empty lands are located inside the high risk flood area as defined illustration purposes, in a township in which the average number of homes per hectare is 60 inside the areas already built, it was assumed that there 2 are 60 families (1 family per home) and that in the \ , EL next 25 years a total of 12 new families and homes + HR . (20% of 60) will likely be formed in the same parcels L 4 N7 of land in which these are located, for a total 7 Pa ? ; density of 72 dwelling homes at the end of the C8 PA period. SA \N 7, In addition to development within the existing built z PS: NN ) V4 footprint described above, development potential is 6 \ LHTNS VS also calculated and assessed (assuming 175 4 REG dwelling units per hectare) for the defined ba NT É \, IN undeveloped areas, or prime developable land, that À, LAS 2 KK exists within the urban perimeter. This stance 7 ré ” 4 7. 1€ D preferentially focuses on the ‘net available CLS NSE ARN residential areas’ defined by these two 4 KA AN Ÿ PRE components. 4 N 2e EN GR \ TX 7.3.5 Expansion Areas . a VS), TN Once the capacity of both these areas was reached, ab: — me © Zone urbaines MN Habitation — Route secondaire the number of families whose houses would have Zone inondable/Forêt riveraine M Commerciale — Routes tertiaires to be developed on additional lands, the expansion — Rivière principale MM Espace public : —— Rivière secondaire M Espace boise areas, was calculated using the measure of 175 Plus attractif M industriel dwelling units per hectare. The resulting hectares Institutionnel of land per the calculation indicated in the previous Plus restreint pes constructible point were distributed around the entire perimeter of the township, especially into areas defined as Figure 41 - Main land uses identified in the township of Trou-du-Nord. NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 57 te EU ERM [page 66] Table 14 - Total area and current land use distribution 7.4.3 Available land be destined for residential developments. This is in the township of Trou-du-Nord referred to as ‘net available residential land’. This leaves 72% of the urban setting or 153 hectares CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % as the area Lu which future development could be 7.4.4 Capacity to accommodate residential planned within. Based on the data in Table 14 for developments Routes 17.82 8% the total land outside the flood zone, the urban Espace Boise 413 2% area within Trou-du-Nord would be able to receive In order to determine the capacity of already built Espace Public 2.11 1% new developments inside the identified 66 ha of areas, the two areas that appear illustrated in Institutionnel 8.93 4% empty lands. Figure 42 (a central city area and a more peripheral Commerciale 1.23 1% one) were used to measure the number of Industriel 0.27 0% While the specific land use breakdown of a city is dwellings they contain, finding an average 59 units ie : nn pe closely associated to its economy, experience in per hectare. Using the previously defined os 2091 several cities in Latin America suggests a conservative approach to the growth of areas that 100% sustainable urbanization model for land distribution are currently built (20% of the growth of the û would comprise: 45% for roads, public spaces, average number of houses over a 25 year period), a by the studies conducted as presented in Section natural or naturalized areas; 42% for residential density of 71 dwelling units per hectare was 4.4.4. These areas are comprised largely of uses (in which small scale commerce and other derived, and when applied to the 57 hectares of unoccupied lands with 48% of the total, residential complementary uses are included); 10% for residential land in which this could take place, a areas with 45%, and some institutional facilities institutional and commercial uses and 3% for other, capacity of 4,024 homes was obtained. In addition, 7 with 7% of the area. industry-related uses. for the 28 hectares of net residential land defined in Section 7.4.3, applying the reasonable density of In an ideal scenario none of these areas would be If this model was applied in Trou-du-Nord, the 66 175 dwelling units per hectare generates a further occupied by buildings, since they are classified as ha that constitute the ‘gross’ available land should 4,868 dwelling units. Based on these two factors, high risk, in which mitigation measures would likely be broken into the land uses and areas that appear the total capacity of dwelling units inside the urban not be sufficient to protect life. in Table 14 under ‘availability for development’. setting would be 8,892. Consequently, not more than 28 hectares ought to Table 15 - Trou-du-Nord - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. URBAN LAND USE INSIDE FLOOD AREA URBAN LAND USE OUTSIDE FLOOD AREA AVAILABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT (NET VIDE) GO0D CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % CATEGORY pracrice AREAH2) RELOCATED NET AREA Routes 0.00 0% Routes 17.82 11.65% Routes 15% 9.93 0 9.93 Espace Boise 0.00 0% Espace Boise 413 2.70% Espace Boise 15% 9.93 0 9.93 Espace Public 021 0% Espace Public 1.90 124% Espace Public 15% 9.93 0.04 9.89 Institutionnel 4.18 7% Institutionnel 4.74 3.10% Institutionnel 5% 331 0.82 249 Commerciale 025 0% Commerciale 0.98 0.64% Commerciale 5% 3.31 0.53 2.78 Industriel 0.01 0% Industriel 026 0.17% Industriel 3% 1.99 0.29 170 Vide 28.48 48% Vide 66.23 43.29% Vide 0% 0.00 0 0.00 À | Habitation 26.77 45% Habitation 5694 37.21% Habitation 42% 27.82 1122 16.60 TOTAL 59.91 TOTAL 153.00 TOTAL 6623 129 28% 72% +8 GIDB 2 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 58 te EU ERM [page 67] - Te : Æ — Es ER Table 16 - Trou du Nord - Capacity for residential Z LU Z IN AN I 72 ) V7) V > 7742 TN 7 7, «#77 developments inside the urban setting and areas « 4, ZA x > LMI" N LAN À : Le 7 7 D y: C » ; & “y C2 Æ CA required for expansion in the 2040 fast growth 7 LEA Re 5 4 AR DC scenario y = SL 7e F 4 Lo CES D = » LL OZ De À 2° 7 Le ss 1° 2 A 7 & < ÉE., Pa à No. of homes per ha in sample ärea 1 & / 4 F € à, No. of homes per ha in sample area 2 57 / $ o K LC AIN P dé è / À D > K Average number of homes per ha 59 2 & PL PCT Ne a? "Reasonable" density i M ES MR NS | ZAR Lee 7” CD Vs 4 12, ; à C K "Rezsonable" density in non developed lands 175 , 2 dé / Ÿ M, N7/ AVAILABLE OPEN LANOS 4 CS 4 7 4 à. V4 é, 4/ 7 | Area (Ha) 28 DS À Ne 2 Et T1 Zone urbaines M institutionnel DEVELOPED ZONES OUTSIDE RISK AREAS Plus attractif Vide = Route secondaire Sig ds) 57 Plus restreint mere ca in # of h I developed 4 . ins = Habation C1 Zones d'analyse de la densité de logement EE A) cit 4024 ommerciale M Espace public TOTAL SUPPLY IN URBAN AREA 8892 Figure 42 - Trou du Nord - Areas selected for calculating the building density. Demand from relocation in Ha 27 Li . d from reloc: # ho Considering that by 2040, in the fast growth perimeter. Table 16 summarizes these calculations Sr ds pd ri pa ae scenario Trou-du-Nord would reach a total demand for Trou-du-Nord. Total households by 2040 in the fast growth es of 18,660 housing units including existing “mani households plus those that might be considered for Based on these calculations, and asillustrated in TOTAL DEMAND BY 2040 18660 relocation, and that 8,892 of those could be housed Figure 43, a series of areas for future urban inside the current urban area, a total of 9,768 development around the perimeter of the city have lie cé _ households would have to be located in expansion been identified, which amount to 78 hectares. This Total housing needs in expansion areas 9768 areas. At the reasonable density of 175 dwelling provides an extra buffer against the 56 hectares units per hectare, Trou-du-Nord would have to identified above, and acknowledges that the area vohpeles nico opel den 56 incorporate an additional 56 hectares of land to its could be developed with varying density + According to ERM population study and projections NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 59 t< À EU F ID B ERM [page 68] parameters that reduced the dwelling units per hectare parameter. These correspond with the areas surrounding the town and those that extend along the main roads that were classified as more attractive for development based on the modelling process presented in Section 6.7. 74.5 Next Step: Developing an Urban Design Vision Having established the areas in Trou-du-Nord that should be considered for future urbanization inside and outside the urban setting, the next step would be to develop an urban design vision. This should be based on applying, for both the ‘true’ available land and the expansion areas, the distribution of land uses that is proposed under the ‘good practice” model discussed previously. Because ofits size and location farthest from areas of high risk, the quadrant comprised by polygon D in Figure 43 should be thought of as the one where the main institutional, commercial and recreational activities of the township ought to be developed. Mixed with reasonable density residential developments, this could provide the balance that the township is requiring in terms of public open spaces and other elements of a quality civic life. “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 60 t<C IL ERM [page 69] @ 7 Trou-du-Nord IV: © j É ESS 2 SD x > ‘ ». 5 GA NQ 0,8 22 he CN À C1 Zone urbaines MN Habitation C1 Poilygones d'extension Zone inondable/Forêt riveraine B Commerciale —— Route secondaire — Rivière principale Mn Espaces public —— Routes tertiaires [A | 13.81] _—— Rivière secondaire MM Espace boise [B_ | 9.17] DRE — frire utonnel CE 7 Vide = Plus restreint D Vide - pas constructible 1 78.5 Figure 43 — Trou-du-Nord - Current land uses, areas for densification within the urban setting and proposed expansion areas. 3 EMERGING = Los 2# GIDB | NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 61 ù SE ERM [page 70] 7.5 Capacity in Limonade space with 1% each. Only one industrial operation the total, residential areas with 38%, roads with 9%, was identified, with less than 1%. wooded areas with 5% and some institutional, 7.5.1 Total area and land use distribution commercial and industrial facilities adding up to 6% . _ : 7.5.2 Area and land uses under high risk of the area. As mentioned at the beginning of this Asillustrated in Figure 44 and supporting Table 1 - diti : : : . k _. conditions Chapter, in an ideal scenario none of these areas 4, the township of Limonade comprises an urban would be occupied by buildings, since they are area of 155 hectares of land. In terms of surface, it As demonstrated in Table 18, 29.49 hectares, which classified as hi kr iQ miti tion cures is divided in order of size by empty lands comprising equal 21% of the total urban area are located inside would likel Fe be cufficient to ect life 55% of the total, followed by residential areas with the high risk flood area as defined by the studies y p ° 26%, roads with 10%, wooded areas with 6%, public conducted as presented in Section 4.4.4. These are Table 17 - Total area and current land use 7 \ 7 7 T distribution in the township of Limonade ® - 2 ï + mm | LS ÿ 4 i . CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % É TE 0 À H £ Routes 1527 10% û 0 CL D AN CS : D $ Espace Boise 913 6% Re No LI INSEE, D te ee, d Espace Public 2.73 2% Br D _2K ZANNE UN, “1° d Institutionnel 2.06 1% Le cu D CERINN CU : Industriel 029 0% D SYRT EESEE EE D Vide 8436 55% LE LA LICE 1 RENE d Habitation 39.46 26% ; 2 CSST), TOTAL 154.66 TT LA ÉGÈ A. eo LE. 7.5.3 Available land D Z 7) Ë LU SN ri ï \= # 4 … ! \ si The above leaves 81% of the urban setting or 125 ! £ LAUR RS ! D As hectares as the area in which future development < ÈS Ù à. IF D 00 À! could to be planned and fostered. As also indicated = = ne - a in Table 18, of the total land outside the flood zone Zone urbaine Commerciale —— Route secondaire Zone inondable/Forêt riveraine B Espace public —— Route tertiare (125 ha), 72.07 ha are empty (58%), followed by 28 — Rivière — Espace boise ha of residential areas (23%), 13 ha of areas és = Institutionnel occupied by roads (10%) 7.55 areas occupied by 772 \ide ded 6%), 3 ha of public open space (2% Plus restreint L ; wooded areas (6%), pl pen space (2%), Vide - bi MN Habitation OU de ° and other land uses representing less than 2% of the area. Figure 44 - Main land uses identified in the township of Limonade Based on these data, the urban area of Limonade spaces with 2%, and commercial and institutional comprised largely by unoccupied areas with 42% of would be able to receive new developments inside the 72 ha of empty lands previously mentioned. = EMERGING + Lo «ES GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 62 tnitiative ERM [page 71] Table 18 - Limonade - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. URBAN LAND USE INSIDE FLOOD AREA URBAN LAND USE OUTSIDE FLOOD AREA AVAILABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT (NET VIDE) CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % CATEGORY RATE AREA (Ha) RELOCATED NET AREA Routes 2.72 9% Routes 1254 10.02% Routes 15% 10.81 Le 10.81 Espace Boise 158 5% Espace Boise 755 6.03% Espace Boise 15% 10.81 o 1081 Espace Public 0.04 0% Espace Public 2.69 215% Espace Public 15% 10.81 0.04 10.77 Institutionnel 082 3% Institutionnel 124 0.99% Institutionnel 5% 3.60 082 2.78 Commerciale 0.53 2% Commerciale 0.84 0.67% [Commerciale 5% 3.60 053 3.07 Industriel 029 1% Industriel 0.00 0.00% Industriel 3% 2.16 0.29 187 Vide 12.29 42% Vide 72.07 57.58% Vide 0% 0.00 o 0.00! | | Habitation 1122 38% Habitation 28.24 22.56% Habitation 42% 30.27 11.22 19.05 TOTAL 2949 TOTAL 125.17 TOTAL 72.07 129 19% 81% Ifthe same model discussed in Section 7.4 is applied in Limonade, the 72 ha that constitutes the ‘gross’ . : = . ES : available land should be broken into the land uses > N 7 4 E RE he SE 7 EL & RSS and areas that also appear in Table 18. 22 S ] “7 ml Le ESS SN NN Consequently, not more than 30 hectares should be CL . Le Pn LA. Æ,"S LE LKR RKK destined for residential developments. # À ù Z A. Te LL TAIZ R KNWNKXNSSIN 7.54 cp to accommodate residential 27 24 Z Œ & _. 4 LE A KR | 12 evelopments 7 LA DE Den L 4 PF + SI L In order to determine the capacity of already built LV ' > 2 LA 22 EZz RK SK 7 areas, the two areas that appear illustrated In 2 CZ UOTE A 77 ZT D: _ sn NN NS Figure 45 (a central city area and a more peripheral 7 CZ C 2 Fa # Le 4 2 ER RSI $ RE L j - SAR e one) were measured, finding an average of 105 y | # ne. A ENXIT NN 2 units per hectare. Applving the conservative density CN CZ iQ #7, : 1 NU RQ) 2 (20% increase), a density of 126 dwelling units per EN A » lp 4 4 7 4 RSR NN NN 4 229 $ o » y 2 NN RKRIFKIKÈKKK #4 hectare is derived, and applying this to the 28 Z 22 À Z @ 7 É_ s ZA RQ NS hectares of residential land area, a future capacity PEN LE ê ZZ ENS C//; of 3,558 homes is obtained. In addition, applying ET JDN GT Cr 3 Lin PR SN $ SSÈ RENNES 4 the 175 dwelling units per hectare to the 30 7 LA VA 0 HÉGDOIDN IDD SL Kcos FN : se: : : 21 Zone urbaine Vide hectares identified in Section 7.5.3, a further 5,297 Zone inondable/Forêt riveraine 4 Vide - pas constructible homes can be accommodated, giving a total … ns 1 Zones d'analyse de la densité de logement capacity of dwelling units inside the urban setting of —— het nes eq 8,855 M Espace public ” : EM industriel EM institutionnel Considering that by 2040, in the fast growth Figure 45 - Limonade - Areas selected for calculating the building density scenario Limonade would reach a total demand of NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 63 <C Sie ERM [page 72] 17,307 housing units including existing households distribution of land uses that is proposed under the Table 19 - Limonade - Capacity for residential plus those that might be considered for relocation, ‘good practice’ model discussed previously. developments inside the urban setting and areas and that 8,855 of those could be housed inside the required for expansion in the 2040 fast growth current urban area, a total of 8,452 households A major feature of Limonade visible in the figure is scenario would have to be located in expansion areas. At the the presence of healthy, wooded areas surrounding reasonable density of 175 dwelling units per the township. Considering that these could be BASE pe hectare, Limonade would have to incorporate an major green assets in the area, the recommendable additional 48 hectares of land to its perimeter. action would be to declare them as public space, ss mien honte æ Table 18 summarizes these calculations for integrating the western side of the city to this shinniemetinnxs ee Limonade. system. This should be thought of as the area where the main institutional, commercial and exsmber cf ones per à 2 Based on these calculations, and asillustrated in recreational activities of the township ought to be unabie"denshy is areas asrenthy Figure 46, a series of areas for future urban developed. Mixed with reasonable density pecupied by rasidential uen (eurent homes 2 development around the perimeter of the city have residential developments, this could provide not ittititée been identified. These correspond with the areas only the balance that the township is requiring in go Pin toner ms ee s #5 surrounding the town and those that extend along terms of public open spaces but also become a AVAILABLE OPEN LANDS. the main roads that were classified as more major element of attraction to this township for attractive for development based on the modelling new migrants or settlers. res fa) Ld process presented in Section 6.7. city in # of homes en non-developed 527 ds at rensomable density (175) Because of the presence of a significant process of DEVELOPED ZONES OUTSIDE RISK AREAS settlement on the east side of Limonade, as well as a valuable wooded area in the same area, a planned pa ” expansion area that incorporates controls over the pre” rs Ep ss wooded area (polygon ‘C’ on the map) should be implemented. Coupled with providing expansion DEL EERCIECNINEAR SEE Du areas in all directions, this would yield a larger Demand free relocation in Ha “ expansion area, which has been estimated at 111 ê Le te hectares. 178 rage density) : . etai housekoids by 2040 in the fast growth ne 7.5.5 Next step: developing an urban design o vision Tati househoids try 2040 plus related PE Having established the areas in Limonade that Fatal supply in urban ares ass ought to be destined for future urbanization inside and outside the urban setting, the next step would cuisson se be to develop an urban design vision. This vision rautred ter Lin e should be based on applying, for both the ‘gross’ - = According 10 ERM population study and projections available land and the expansion areas, the NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 64 te EU ERM [page 73] F Van | L : i Limonade < Te ? ts … CEE ! #, 4 SJ] = : D É ) ù - p-.? (F) L À AT L PE L , SV Sr , fl À » AN 7 CE C 3 LR LAB?) LLA - RS 24 EN) : - nn, : LES Ps 4 : RS V4 ts SR ; 4 SLA En = PS F C0 4 ? 4 [ n “ L « ? Lg. À DL * \ > TR # : # Tr" | Ne ' 65 ! 0e À: Ÿ 9 015 0, fl À Ve 11 C1 Zone urbaine M Commerciale — Route principale Zone inondable/Forêt riveraine BN Espace public — Route secondaire eu —— Rivière MM Espace boise —— Route tertiare EE MRETE heal ie a institutionnel CS Vide ; su | : [E | 5.12] el BE Vide - pas constructible CE MT L__] Polygones d'extension Figure 46 - Limonade - Current land uses, areas for densification within the urban setting and proposed expansion areas. 2 EMERGING = Los US GIDB L NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 65 À Sun ERM [page 74] 7.6 Capacity in Terrier Rouge 7.6.2 Area and land uses under high risk Table 20 - Total area and current land use distribution conditions in the township of Terrier Rouge 7.6.1 Total d land distributi 9fa area anc'ana use cistrioutlon As demonstrated in Table 21, just 2.56 hectares, Asillustrated in Figure 47 - Main land uses which equal 2% of the total urban area are located CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % identified in the township of Terrier RougeFigure 47 inside the high risk flood area as defined by the Routes 1535 12% and accompanying Table 20, the township of Terrier studies conducted as presented in Section 4.4.4. Espace Boise 086 1% Rouge comprises an urban area of 130 hectares of The small flood zone is comprised by 1.12 ha of Espace Public 401 3% land. In terms of surface, it is divided in order of size empty lands accounting for 44%, 0.78 ha of Institutionnel 5.63 4% by empty lands comprising 45% of the total, residential activity areas representing 31%, and Coneniie 055 0% followed by residential areas with 34%, roads with some institutional facilities with 13% of the area. Industriel 0.00 0% 12%, institutional services with 4%, public open With these indicators, Terrier Rouge is clearly the et pen pr : 0 ne : : : al n . spaces with 3% and very limited commercial areas. least exposed township to flooding. TOTAL 12998 100% RE C1 Le À Ç Relocating, if selected as a measure, and S FA ei re * implementing adaptation measures inside the areas . 1 7 nr Et would also be the least complex task to undertake <, ZE < a in this town, compared to the other towns in the YF TER | LA rs PE \ area of study. a TETE 7.6.3 Available land MS; Ca TN Fr es —É 2 RS The factors expressed above leave 98% of the urban E--- ZA Al SL AN Si = setting or 127 hectares as the area in which future HA ELGFHRE TE PR development could be planned. As indicated in the _.. A D) Se S Table 21, of the total land outside the flood | GE EE N © able 21, of the total land outside the flood zone ty L= N + ” (127 ha), 58 are empty lands (45%), followed by 44 ne 7 \ SR ha of residential areas (35%), 15 ha of roads (12%), PRE À | institutional areas occupying 5 ha (4%), public open De ee \ 2777 - | space occupying 4 ha (3%) and other land uses x, ë o dois 03 representing not more than 2% of the total area. 4 —_— km. À 1 Zone urbaines EM Commerciale —— Route secondaire Based on these data, the urban area of Terrier SE — Enies Sr == Dpiesintio Les Rouge would be able to receive new developments Plus attractif as onnsl inside the 88 ha of empty lands previously Vide - pas constructible 1 . es Het — Route principale Figure 47 - Main land uses identified in the township of Terrier Rouge = EMERGING Lo NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 66 tnitiative ERM [page 75] Table 21 - Terrier Rouge - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. URBAN LAND USE IMNDE FOOO AREA URBAN LAND USE OUTHIDE FLOOD AREA AVAILAEIUITY FOR DEVELOPMENT (NET VIDE] CATEGORY ARLA (ra) » CATEGORY ARLA (a) » CATEGORY Senée AREA (Me) RELOCATED NET AREA Routez o32 13m Routes 15.02 1179% Routes 15% see o 856 e Bose oc on Lspece Botse 0ss G67 Expece Bose 15% #66 Le} 266 space Pubtit ü00 (3 tapece Pubte soi 31% Espace Pubiic 15% ss 004 “62 Dentitisticrrenat 63 13% Ent tioett 53: 4175 Itituticnnel sx 229 08] 207 commerciale om on coneenciaie os ca rome ciale 5% 22% ass 236 el 0.09 on marsrnel 0.00 0.00% industnel ES 173 LEO 14 Vige 112 se, Vice s173 4550 Vide oœ 00 ° 000 sabnetion 07 ro [LELTTUE 4% 5% Habitation At M25 22 1303 totaL 25 TOTAL 12743 TOTAL sn 128 2% qe, Applying the same approach for Terrier Rouge as — ee ; = nn has been applied to Limonade and Trou-du-Nord, 27 y (TE Bee e> 4 A ) the 58 ha that constitutes the ‘gross’ available land Z 77 L. pÿ] 4 T° PA 1] dl f ON should be broken into the land uses and areas that É ” 7 7 En 127,21 EX HZ appear in the availability for development part of Y 4 [2 2 Qi la | Tan << LL À Table 21. This results in 24 hectares identified for ’ KI Rp nn” D Es Er 4 D 12 2224 0 7] AT rt TT f “a ua residential developments. D LEZ RE: VD FE / 22; D à pe” 77 N 4 Lu AZZZZ 7.6.4 Capacity to accommodate residential \ RE 7 ve A b C7 : developments : y Ne C7 2 > L SE ET 4 D 4 D pen 72 L= Z As in the previous townships, the determined the D Ÿ SSL CT ni NE _. capacity of Terrier Rouge to accommodate new BA S L? ns. aus PT D. households was on the basis of a conservative AX A là L / Ë 22, > approach to the growth (20% growth), together \ D À — 4 — . 2 NE jo! LH with the application of a ‘reasonable’ density of 175 2 dl = ï AA | dwelling units per hectare to the net available lands A LÀ — ‘ ï 4 | "Qs _ De within the urban setting. The 24 net hectares that ne iésies mer re NE could be utilized for residential activities would Li inondable/Forêt riveraine — ce es [= Zones d'analyse de la densité de logement —— Rivière ‘space public therefore fit a total of 4,243 dwelling units. Plus attractif _ Menton Phsrestréint EM Vide - pas constructible In order to determine the capacity of already built x Habitation ep areas, the two areas that appearillustrated in : . : : Figure 48 (a central city area and a more peripheral Figure 48 - Terrier Rouge - Areas selected for calculating the building density one) were used to measure the number of dwellings they contain, finding an average 53 units 5 EMERGING Lo NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 67 Voitiative ERM [page 76] per hectare. Consequently, by applying the Table 22 - Terrier Rouge - Capacity for Terrier Rouge is not significantly exposed to floods, conservative density of 64 dwelling units per residential developments inside the urban and it is also a surrounded by very important hectare to the 44 hectares of residential land uses setting and areas required for expansion in the natural wooded areas that should be protected. in which this could take place, a capacity of 2,796 2040 fast growth scenario homes is obtained. Based on these two factors, the Because of this factor, the expansion of the total capacity of dwelling units inside the urban PRE L township should be thought of more towards the setting would be 7,039. LT EL RENTE a south (polygons C and D in Figure 49), which is also where the suitability analysis yielded the areas that Considering that by 2040, in the fast growth No. of homez per ha in sample ares 2 58 should be developed. These should be the areas scenario Terrier Rouge would reach a total demand where the main institutional, commercial and of 11,190 housing units including existing Per es REEe LE recreational activities of the township ought to be households plus those that would have to be "Reasonable" density in areas current} developed. This proposition departs from the AIA relocated, and that 7,039 of those could be built FÉES TS Pen AO # Study's proposal to create a by-pass of RN6 towards inside the current urban area, a total of 4,152 SRE ENS EE Ds the north of the township. That said, the south of households would have to be located in expansion Terrier Rouge and its connection with Grande areas. At the reasonable density of 175 dwelling AVAILABLE OPEN LANDS Bassin is an area that should be looked for units per hectare, Terrier Rouge would have to sustainable future development. incorporate an additional 24 hectares of land toits pres (Ha) 24 perimeter. Table 22summarizes these calculations Capacity in # of homez on non-developed dé for Limonade lands at reazonable density (175) DEVELOPED ZONES OUTSIDE RISK AREAS Based on these calculations, and asillustrated in Figure 49, a series of areas for future urban Are (Ha) js development around the perimeter of the city have Capacity in # of homez on already developed SE been traced. These correspond with the areas erekee Ganiemora) À AU surrounding the town and those that extend along TOTAL CAPACITY IN URBAN AREA 7038 the main roads that were classified as more attractive for development based on the modelling De en ns 4 process presented in Section 6.7. Demand from relocztion in # of homez (at Fr average density) 7.6.5 Next step: urban design vision ro DYANOMERNERR Having established the areas in Terrier Rouge that Total houzeholds by 2040 plus relocated 11190 ought to be destined for future urbanization inside Lssetsns and outside the urban setting, the next step would job: 7 sans 7039 be to develop an urban design vision. This vision PRES TN ee tr pe Te should be based on applying, for both the ‘gross’ available land and the expansion areas, the Ares required for expansion in ha 24 distribution of land uses that is proposed under the "cote ENG nn ‘good practice’ model discussed previously. NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 68 te EU ERM [page 77] A : un É ‘ : A ; i Terrier Rouge COPA | SZ LÉ AN EEE SE ee Vo ET. 2 L CLS Tete AS, = / EEE LAA 2e Le AN AT SR. / HALL FAX LATE CA Fe ponte SRE SR ;/ || / * 77/7 AA dé 1 9ÉeS de. IZZSLZ;: EL a NEA N diese: n ZZZkE SEXY | | Ms, IZSÉLEZ >] / Z x 34 % 0 0,15 0,3 0,6 Pa S Ÿ == — Km À C1 Zone urbaines EM Commerciale — Route principale Zone inondable/Forêt riveraine DM Espace boise —— Route secondaire —— Rivière BR Espace public —— Routes tertiaires [A | 0.92] Plus attractif EM institutionnel BB | 215 en Vide : EN Vide - pas constructible = Plus restreint 2 : [D | 25.74 EM Habitation Polygones d'extension Taa 37.53 Figure 49 - Terrier Rouge - Current land uses, areas for densification within the urban setting and proposed expansion areas 5 ds. EMERGING = Los «TE GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 69 CA initiative ERM [page 78] 7.7 Capacity in Bord de Mer de Limonade by residential areas with 20%, roads with 7%, high risk flood area as defined by the studies institutional areas with 3%, and commercial and conducted as presented in Section 4.4.4. 7.7.1 Total area and land use distribution public open space with 1% each. . on . In an ideal scenario none of these areas would be As illustrated in Figure 50 and supporting Table 23, 7.7.2 Area and land uses under high risk occupied by buildings, since they are classified as the township of Bord de Mer de Limonade conditions high risk, where mitigation effects could have terme of surf, ar d. un a Na The situation in Bord de Mer is critical because, as limited impacts. However, itis very unlikely that à jerns orsuriace it sac moe oee er demonstrated in Table 24, 47 hectares, which e ual program to relocate 80% of the township will empty areas comprising 51% of the total, followed , } Wni q happen, and it is not possible to accommodate the 90% of the total urban area are located inside the : : current and future population demands in the 10% à. Table 23 - Total area and current land use distribution >, in the township of Bord de Mer de Limonade « 4 URBAN LAND USE IN BDM de Limonade NE 77 . 4 à CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % Ÿ SNA \ > Routes 3.72 7% F. LÉO 6 /) __—. Espace Public 0.66 1% PANDA 7 PE ? à Fe < 4 | {l ! Area one. IN LS LOTS | conne de -. 10% 2 NT ANNE OT ITR lp) mmerciale - Tr LL PU A fer 4%.) NX // Industriel 0.00 0% / RSS” L = À Vide 26.77 51% D D VAN E Habitation 1957 37% / GZZ À TOTAL 5248 A LÉ “ 4 area that is not in situation of high risk. re l As a consequence, the options for responses would C1 Zone urbaines EM hnstitutionnel — Route tertiaire be as follows: [SS Zone inondable élevé Vide D Océan Atlantique 17°] Zone inondable très élevé DM Vide : : Zone inondable élevé Plus attractif 1. Barr any expansion of the township and Zone inondable très élevé implement policies and incentives for new = Habitation - : EM Commerciale - Plus restreint settlers to seek location elsewhere. BI Espace public —— Route secondaire Figure 50 - Main land uses identified in the township of Bord de Mer de Limonade és, EMERGING”" EN RFRNS Los C4 GIDB | NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 70 Vaitiative ERM [page 79] Table 24 - Bord de Mer de Limonade - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. URBAN LAND USE INSIDE FLOOD AREA URBAN LAND USE OUTSIDE FLOOD AREA AVAILABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT (NET VIDE) CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % CATEGORY RRCUCE AREA (Ha) RELOCATED NET AREA È 337 7% Ë 0.34 6.29% È 15% 0.52 0 0.52 Espace Boise 0.00 0% Espace Boise 0.00 0.00% Espace Boise 15% 0.52 0 052 Espace Public 0.66 1% Espace Public 0.00 0.00% Espace Public 15% 0.52 0.04 0.48 Institutionnel 140 3% Institutionnel 0.01 0.14% Institutionnel 5% 0.17 0.82 0.65 Commerciale 023 0% Commerciale 0.13 231% Commerciale 5% 0.17 0.53 0.36 Industriel 0.00 0% Industriel 0.00 0.00% Industriel 3% 010 0.29 019 Vide 23.30 50% Vide 347 63.31% Vide 0% 0.00 ( 0.00 | | Habitation 18.04 38% Habitation 153 27.96% Habitation 42% 1.46 1122 -9.76 TOTAL 47.01 TOTAL 5.48 TOTAL 3.47 129 90% 10% 2. Consider the entire township for the an intense program for changing the existing 7 application of the ‘good practice’ land use housing stock to these kinds of models. distribution model, which would be e representative of a sustainable community in 4. Develop multi-family housing projects that : terms of economic activities. This would maximize the density that solutions such as entail, as demonstrated in Table 24, doubling the one depicted in Figure 50 could afford. the surface occupied by roads, creating a Based on the analyses of the Zorange pilotis- public space realm of open spaces and supported structure and the EKAM project, wooded areas of 15.6 hectares in a place that the density in this case that could be reached just has 0.66 ha of this kind of space, doubling would be 80 homes per hectare of net area. the area for institutional activities, and setting aside 4 hectares of land for a commercial 5. Design and develop incentives for future operation. As a result, in terms of residential households to settle outside the township, on Figure 51 - À pilotis - supported house developed for surface the township could only allocate 22 areas that are less exposed to natural the Zorange Housing Expo ha. phenomena. 3. Develop a housing solution that adapts as 7.73 Capacity to accommodate residential maximum as possible to the potential developments 196 units less than the 1,644 homes that would be hazards, in this case coastal floods and According to the analyses presented, and is expected to have arrived in the township by 2040. hurricanes. This could be possible, through demonstrated in Table 25, in Bord de Mer de This is illustrated in Table 23 housing models such as the one depicted in Limonade there is a net availability of land for Figure 50. These should be implemented in residential uses of approximately 23 hectares. This the 22 ha that would be allocated for would yield a total 1,840 homes, which would be residential uses. This should be coupled with == EMERGING Lo L 6 > SUSTAINABLE NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 71 EX EU F ID B ERM [page 80] Table 25 - Bord de Mer de Limonade - Capacity for the total, followed by residential areas with 34%, de Mer, but still a concern, with 49% of the area of residential developments inside the urban setting roads with 10%, institutional areas and public open the township at risk of flooding (see Table 28). space with 3% each, wooded areas with 1%. There Again, in an ideal scenario none of these areas is only a minimal commercial activity near the town would be occupied by buildings. However, it is center. unlikely that a program to relocate 49% of the township will happen. Additionally, here it is also Net land available for 33 7.8.2 Area and land uses under high risk not possible to accommodate the current and residential land uses conditions future population demandés in the half of the Multifamily density that could 80 The situation in Caracol is not as critical as in Bord township that is not at risk of flooding. be reached Total homes 1840 Total households by 2040 in the - + 1644] ä . fast growth scenario PE" TR | &] … ue: | Remaining capacity by 2040 196] pa VoES + en - = - = — 4 \6 ANÉEURS \] L According to ERM's population projections si a. E: TL 7 ù 7.74 Next step: developing an urban design nu: ; og JE FE N 7. X : dev i u i À À Be \| | PRE vision æ K SQL L | 12 N 2 QD ANT EE == BEM 7 Are-thinking of the future of this township should LL. 7 rs CALE be considered. However, this should be coupled f En 22 CPR 2 D : É [72 F + with a program aimed at offering alternative 4 D 7 2 2 FE F7 settlement areas near the employment centers } à CA 27/22 12 * where its inhabitants work. For in the long term, a | , ! 1L } h process of growth reflective of the current ! ! ! À È construction habits and trends would expose this | ï ë { È township and its population to even more severe Ë k / JE H situations of risk. i À w Ce tv i C1 Zone urbaines Plus attractif Vide 7.8 Capacity in Caracol Zone inondable EM Vide - pas constructible Zone inondable élevé Plus restreint 7 Route secondaire 7.8.1 Total area and land use distribution EM Zone inondable très élevé EM Commerciale == Routes tertiaires | Zone inondable/Forêt riveraine MM Espace public I Océan Atlantique Asillustrated in Figure 52 and supporting Table 27, — Rivière principale MM Espace boise : : —— Rivière secondaire mars the township of Caracol comprises an urban area of Em Habitation M institutionnel 43 hectares of land. In terms of surface, it is divided FI 52- Main land identified in the t hi L ' in order of size by empty areas comprising 48% of igure 52 - Main land uses identified in the township of Caraco == EMERGING Los C4 GIDB | NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 72 CA mitistive ERM [page 81] Table 27 - Total area and current land use with an additional sense of urgency because of the Table 26 - Bord de Mer de Limonade - Distribution of distribution in the township of Caracol demand issue, and would comprise: urban land uses under a ‘good practice’ scenario. 1. Seek to prevent any expansion of the Routes 6.51 15% CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % township and implement policies and Espace Boise 651 15% Routes 4.44 10% incentives for new settlers to seek locations Espace Public 651 15% Espace Boise 0.44 1% elsewhere. The proximity of the PIC and the Institutionnel 247 5% Espace Public 127 3% fact that this is attracting workers from the Commerciale 217 5% Institutionnel 140 3% entire region, calling for a local housing Industriel 130 Fe Commerciale 0.14 0% solution to be seriously thought, is an Vide 0.00 De Industriel 0.00 0% opportunity in this case. Habitation 1823 42% Vide 20.96 48% TOTAL 43.39 Habitation 14.75 34% 2. Consider the entire township for the able 1 - 16. Caracol - Distribution of urban TOTAL 4339 application of the ‘good practice’ land use land uses under a ‘good practice’ scenario. 100% Ne : distribution model, which would be Furthermore, as will be shown in this section, due representative of a sustainable community in commercial activities, and setting aside 1 or 2 to the expected growth in the demand for housing terms of economic activities. With respect to additional hectares of land for other in Caracol in the fast population growth scenario, the existing distribution of land uses (see productive activities. As a result, in terms of the township will not have the necessary area to Table 27], this would result {as shown in Table residential surface the township could only cover that demand if restricted areas are respected 26) in adding two more hectares of roads, allocate 18 ha. and adhered to. creating a public space realm of open spaces and wooded areas of 13 hectares in a place 3. Develop a housing solution that adapts as As a result, the responses would have to the same that just has 2 ha of this kind of space, maximum as possible to the potential as those proposed in Bord de Mer de Limonade, doubling the area for institutional and hazards, in this case coastal floods and Table 28 - Caracol - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. URBAN LAND USE INSIDE FLOOD AREA URBAN LAND USE OUTSIDE FLOOD AREA AVAILABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT (NET VIDE) CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % CATEGORY mat Ce AREA (Ha) RELOCATED NET AREA Routes 161 7% Routes 284 13.20% Routes 15% 122 0 122 Espace Boise 0.00 0% Espace Boise 0.44 205% Espace Boise 15% 1.22 0 1.22 Espace Public 0.06 0% Espace Public 120 5.61% Espace Public 15% 122 004 118 Institutionnel 026 1% Institutionnel 114 531% Institutionnel 5% 0.41 0.82 041 Commerciale 005 0% Commerciale 010 045% Commerciale 5% 0.41 0.53 0.12 Industriel 0.00 0% Industriel 0.00 0.00% Industriel 3% 0.24 029 0.05 Vide 1285 59% Vide 811 37.76% Vide 0% 0.00 0 0.00 L.. … Habitation 7.09 32% Habitation 7.64 35.60% Habitation 42% 341 1122 -7.81 TOTAL 2192 TOTAL 2147 TOTAL 8.11 129 51% 4% EMERGING + Lo a SUSTAÎNABLE 5 IDB \ NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 73 tnitiative ERM [page 82] hurricanes. These should be implemented in Table 29 - Caracol - Capacity for residential protected by Law, threating the sustainability of the the 18 ha that would be allocated for developments inside the urban setting Three Bays National Park. residential uses. This should be coupled with an intense program for changing the existing housing stock to these kinds of models. Net land available for 4. Develop multi-family housing projects that residential land uses 21 maximize the density. Based on the analyses, Muttifamily density that could the density in this case that could reached be reached 80) would be 80 homes per hectare of net area. Total homes 1680 5. Design and develop incentives for future households to settle outside the township, on [Total households by 2040 in the 2528 areas that are less exposed to natural fast growth scenario* phenomena. Remaining capacity by 2040 -848 7.8.3 Capacity to accommodate residential developments Additional area required to house the 2040 housing 106 According to the analyses performed, and as demand at multifamily density demonstrated in Table 27, in Caracol there is a net availability of land for residential uses of approximately 21 hectares. This would yield a total 7.8.4 Next steps 1,680 homes, which would be 848 houses shy of the number of homes that would be expected to have As expressed in the previous paragraphs, a re-think arrived in the township by 2040. Figure of the future of this township should be carried out. An aggressive program to change the construction This means that, should the fast population growth habits and to implement the density increases scenario become a reality, the township of Caracol discussed would contribute to ease the pressures of would not be in capacity to receive the population this town in the next 25 years. However, in this case that is projected to arrive. Assuming that the this should be coupled with a program aimed at densification program was successful, an additional offering alternative settlement in the vicinity of the 11 hectares of land would have to be found PIC. somewhere adjacent to Caracol (see Table 29). In a township of 43 hectares, this represents 25% of the For in the long term, a process of growth reflective surface. However, this would be contrary to the of the current construction habits and trends would policies that are being sought through the expose this township and its population to even implementation of the Three Bays National Park, more severe situations of risk, and continue to which include zero land expansion of the urbanized expand the township into areas that are now areas. NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 74 t<C À ge *IDB ERM [page 83] 7.9 Capacity in Jacquezy center. Table 30 - Total area and current land use Asillustrated in Figure 53 and supporting Table 30, 7.9.1 Area and land uses under high risk distribution in the township of Jacquezy the township of Jacquezy comprises an urban area conditions CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % of 18 hectares of land. In terms of surface, it is divided in order of size by empty residential areas As a coastal town, Jacquezy is less at risk from Routes 444 10% comprising 45% of the total, followed by empty flooding, with only 8% of the area of the township Espace Boise 0.44 1% lands with 34%, roads with 6%, public open space affected (see Table 31). Characteristics like the type Espace Public 127 3% with 3% and institutional areas with 2%. There is of dwelling developed, the street and public open Institutionnel 140 3% only minimal commercial activity near the town spaces scarcity are the same as Caracol and Bord de Commerciale 014 0% Industriel 0.00 0% Vide 20.96 48% NA Habitation 14.73 34% TOTAL 43.39 Vue 1m Z2 A Mer de Limonade. With the creation of the Three Z, f D2 Bays National Park, the ideal situation would be 7 a that this township did not expand, accommodating 77 \2 PA DA growth within its boundaries. The recommended L A 12 ] responses would be the same as those proposed for À | Bord de Mer de Limonade and Caracol including At 1) # avoiding expansion of the | Len) @ | | Al < 1. Barr any expansion of the township and DE 7/2 implement policies and incentives for new 11 settlers to seek location elsewhere. The 77 1 proximity of eastern exit of the Caracol | VA 71 Industrial Park and the fact that this is = 4 457 _ attracting workers from the entire region is Sn Le 7/ also opportunity in this case. Furthermore, ; = the Eastern entrance to the park could be = ie = nn — À planned more as the ‘front’ entrance with the Zone inondable EM Commerciale Western one being the ‘service’ entrance. Zone inondable élevé M Espace public Together with the impressive landscape views = EE + much at this side of the PIC, this could create an Vide - pas constructible attraction for higher end residential solutions Plus restreint En RO ae that will be required at some point. Figure 53 - Main land uses identified in the township of Jacquezy == EMERGING Los NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 75 CA nitistive ERM [page 84] Table 31 - Jacquezy - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. URBAN LAND USE INSIDE FLOOD AREA URBAN LAND USE OUTSIDE FLOOD AREA AVAILABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT (NET VIDE) GooD CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % CATEGORY AREA (Ha) % CATEGORY pracrice AREAH2) RELOCATED NET AREA Espace Boise 0.00 0% Espace Boise 0.44 2.05% Espace Boise 15% 122 0 122 Espace Public 0.06 0% Espace Public 120 5.61% Espace Public 15% 1.22 0.04 118 Institutionnel 026 1% Institutionnel 114 5.31% Institutionnel 5% 0.41 0.82 41 Commerciale 0.05 0% Commerciale 0.10 045% [Commerciale 5% 0.41 0.53 0.12 Industriel 0.00 0% Industriel 0.00 0.00% Industriel 3% 0.24 029 0.05 Vide 1285 59% [Vide 811 37.76% Vide 0% 0.00 0 0.00 À | Habitation 7.09 32% Habitation 7.64 35.60% Habitation 42% 341 1122 -781 TOTAL 21.92 TOTAL 21.47 TOTAL 8.11 129 51% 49% 2. Consider the entire township for the allocated for residential uses as per the This means that, should the fast population growth application of the ‘good practice’ land use application of the model discussed previously. scenario become a reality, the township of Jacquezy distribution model, which would be would not be in capacity to receive the population representative of a sustainable community in 4. Develop multi-family housing projects that that today is expected to arrive under the terms of economic activities. With respect to maximize the density, which analysis suggests assumption that the township does not expand. the existing distribution of land uses (see could reach would be 80 homes per hectare Assuming that the densification program was Table 30), this would entail, as demonstrated of net area. successful, an additional 5 hectares of land would in Table 32, doubling the area covered by have to be found somewhere adjacent to Jacquezy. roads, creating a public space realm of open 5. Design and develop incentives for future In a township of 18 hectares, this represents 27% of spaces and wooded areas of 5 hectares in a households to settle outside the township, on the surface. However, as mentioned above this place that just has half a hectare this kind of areas that are less exposed to natural space, tripling the area for institutional and phenomena. Table 32 - Jacquezy - Distribution of urban land uses commercial activities, and setting aside 1 or 2 : Lo under a ‘good practice’ scenario additional hectares of land for other 7.9.2 Capacity to accommodate residential productive activities. As a result, in terms of developments Routes 2.71 15% residential surface the township could only According to the analyses presented, and as Espace Boise 2.71 15% allocate 8 ha. demonstrated in Table 31, in Jacquezy there is a net Espace Puolic 2-71 15% LE : : Insütutionnel 0.90 5% availability of land for residential uses of - 3. As in the other cases, develop a housing approximately 8 hectares. This would yield a total Commerciale 0.30 5% solution that adapts as maximum as possible 640 homes, which would be 418 houses shy of the Industriel 0.54 5% to the potential hazards, in this case coastal number of homes that would be expected to have M *i 759 pe floods and hurricanes. These should be arrived in the township by 2040. on to 1507 ° implemented in the 8 ha that would be ù EMERGING Lo a SUSTAÎNABLE 5 IDB \ NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 76 tnitiative ERM [page 85] would be contrary to the policies that are being population and socioeconomic section (Section 5.2) the different townships sooner rather than later. sought with the implementation of the Three Bays of this study. As illustrated in Table 33, a total of The elements defined in this study - size and National Park, which include zero land expansion of 174 hectares would have to be incorporated into location of expansion areas, distribution of land the urbanized areas. the urban setting and developed with infrastructure uses, should serve as suitable reference points for to accommodate the demand for housing in the fast tracing detailed urban designs for the future 7.9.3 Nextsteps growth scenario. This allocation would more than situations. Are-think of the future of this township should be adequately cover the needs of the slow growth . carried out. An aggressive program to change the scenario {note that this does not include Jacquezy, 7.10 The Neighborhood of the Caracol construction habits and to increment the density ss chaggregetee baselne snd proirae ided bvth Industrial Park : : information for this township is not provided by the . : . : the next 25 years However im this use te HS) An important cansideration for this study, and as should be coupled with a program aimed at offering : De sure A y porn ne " yen : u h trategie alternative settlement in the vicinities of the PIC, Under both scenarios, the existing urban areas are Plan, is whether or not a new city Is required to which in the case of Jacquezy could take advantage insufficient and the allocated expansion êrees Sppere ruure growth oftne NPC se wel Fe of areas nearby less affected by risks, to develop a would be needed: The existing urbanized setting whether this shoula be located in ie nelghborhoog high quality settlement including residences for would not be sufficient to accommodate the : ot ie PICOr elsewhere: Drivers for such a decision middle and upper midelle income workers on the expected demand of either scenario, especially if include the presence and growth of the PIC, the PIC, students attending the University of Limonade the future ofthese townships es planned : cniversiy À limonader large sgro-inqustrial and others ’ following the model of sustainable distribution of operations that are beginning or expected to ° land uses that has been proposed in this study, in appear, and the aim of reducing as a minimum the 7.9.4 “Fast versus ‘slow’ growth scenarios. which residential development covers only 42% of urban grawth of the coastal townships with the the available areas outside the risk zones. establishment of the Three Bays National Park. The previous analyses were conducted using the housing demand that the townships would face in Consequently, it is appropriate and urgent to adopt From a purely quantitative point of view, and as the ‘fast growth” scenario as defined in the an integrated policy of re-design and planning of presented in the above sections, it would be possible to accommodate inside the area townships Table 33 - Total areas of expansion that would be required to accomodate the housing demand expected by 2040 in and adjacent lands, the growing population at least the ‘fast’ population growth scenario until 2040. However, in Haïti there are two particular phenomena that must also be considered: one is the ‘volatility’ or ‘ease’ with which land uses change. This is largely associated - property rights and the fact that the State is the Limonage | 22289 | 53 [15616 L 6673 | 38 | suner of large extensions of land that are usually [Terrier Rouge [7 11149 [24 [ 7eu1 [3338 | 19 | Hesignated for different uses based on the priorities [BDM de Limonade [1644 1 0 [1152 | 492 | 0 | 24 projects ofthe government in turn. For [caracol |" 2528 À 06 À 1771 | 757 | 2 | example this is how settlements like that of EKAM or those promoted by aid organizations appear * Source: ERM calculations i j ï NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 77 te EU ERM [page 86] The second phenomenon is also the volatility with A. The settlement that appears along RN6 enters to Caracol. which population movements happen in the before the municipal limits of Limonade and C. The settlement along this same road, passed country. This is largely because the poverty Trou-du-Nord. the entrance to the PIC. conditions in which many live creates in families the B. The settlement located at the very D. There more scattered settlements along the need to go where employment is, regardless of this intersection between RN6 and the roads that road that enters Trou-du-Nord from the being temporary or permanent. So when a development such as the PIC appears, it is likely L'2 that many families will pursue settling in the area. In consequence, the ‘neighborhood” of the PIC and ae RSS ç Dr | — Caracol, the University of Limonade and EKAM, Cox | Tan [ {! ‘ Trou du Nord, and Terrier Rouge, referred to ne” r nb ] nl S { Ed | hereinafter as the ‘diamond’, is an area that should à « Lan. ; - ir PF /\ to be considered for implementation of a planned h Le A - > . À process of human settlement. à .\® T é e L- | Both the AIA and the CIAT call for the creation of b Le ? | , S - Ajre such new center. This is proposed in the area of : ps À ti ZX DT ? æ known as Champin, located to the south of the PIC A 7/4 Æ À à Ÿ, , ( and along the road that connects Caracol to Trou- è > €) sé ? À D) F 4 k À du-Nord. While the CIAT document does not 40 4 We, S à ). |  £ specifically indicate a location, the AIA does LA! S À & Ÿ 4 S 5 5 , ; propose that it be built as a complementary and PA > Se “AT 48 D. a Fa | extended development to the community located € 4 # j fs L »ÿ half way between Champin and Trou-du-Nord. ÿ Fe Ÿ PAR 7 "0: K (Z , Er : . DES L'ACTU OCR _— However, based on the analyses carried out for this DRE OR AUS : 54 RS = study, the following factors should be taken into = Parc des Trois Baies S Zone de agriculture durable Routes tertiaires s : Di ; Zone urbaines ©] Plantation de banana consideration when defining the location of a Zone inondable/Forêt riveraine Zone de peuplement très contrôlés potential new town: Bâtiments __ Polygones d'extension En Plus attractif — Rivière principale i Existing developments = res sind gl M Pius restreint em Rhule Éacorii re Asillustrated in Figure 54, the area exhibits numerous settlements such as the one where the Figure 54 - The ‘neighborhood” of the Caracol Industrial Park AIA proposes its new town (see lettered boxes on un . ou k es , . , below): Legend: The land use classifications ‘Plantation de banana', ‘Zone de peuplement très contrôlés’ and ‘Zone de agriculture durable map : were established during conversations senior consultants from the Ministry of Tourism and the IDB. Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. 5 EMERGING e#% GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 78 tnitiative ERM [page 87] junction at the University of Limonade; and two roads that link Trou-du-Nord with the Champin To expand further, based upon the following E. The proto-township that is beginning to and Jesus crossings. As a result, the areas that considerations, it is considered that the areas that appear at the Jesus junction, where the old appear highlighted in yellow in Figure 55, should be are depicted in the grey mesh pattern in Figure 56 road between Trou-du-Nord and Terrier the ones in which more detailed urban planning would be, together, the most convenient ones to Rouge connects back to RN6. analyses should be carried out. develop integrated human settlements to absorb In this context, there are numerous alternatives to consider for future settlements; the convenience of : RN6, as well as proximity to the PIC and the V2 University of Limonade, are considered to be the strongest drivers for growth. = / SR “ ’ [A New plantations in the neighborhood Le 4 ST 621 F 7. : j g Also illustrated in Figure 54 is a banana plantation E Ep 1 SS RD : Ye of 1,000 that hectares is being set up in two major hs \ 5 / < À parcels: the first one is North of the RN6 junction À )Ÿ 7e é Dm. ‘Ee that leads to the Champin area passed the € A À + Î University of Limonade, right in front of the EKAM N l }. c : f een project; the second one is East of the same junction : . _ : rose SE | * + 4 extending approximately 1.5 km along the access # RU SE RSS Ÿ = 1) - ie é road to Trou-du-Nord. This plantation will likely be B = ÿ + RS A \ > 4 , Li demanding labor from area residents, in which case € É 6 p > RS à S À ÿ 7 rf e E the vicinity to the EKAM area as well as that of the Ae Ya > #7 fans EN ct | Ep settlement at the Champing crossing would have a $ Ra & È à SSS , ; 4 ge? «CR major advantage. FVAS ! RSS do: SPC AU à MR ne ii. The results of the geo-spatial modeling re RSS us 274 Pi it RER Do) À , Part L rs ps Finally, in this setting it is recommended that the a EN des Trois Baies SEE de agriculture durable —— Routes tertiaires results of the geo-spatial modeling process for land — Le Lee EI Lishÿ > obpralelionrti diéé suitability presented in Section 6 also be [1] Bâtiments _ Polygones d'extension considered, which indicate the area of the Plus attractif — Rivière principale University of Limonade, the area of the Champin = sr si ni crossing and the area of Jesus to be the most Plus restreint — Route secondaire attractive for development based on the . . maximization of the attractions and the Figure 55 - Areas that should be considered for future development maximization of the restrictions. The modeling Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID- process also yields a highly valuable area that OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis should to be preserved and restricted between the from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. #5 GIDB À NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 79 Vaitiative ERM [page 88] future population: internal road of the facility and RN6. This calls, gridded system of roads and pathways that would therefore, to the consolidation of both the Champin structure a mixed use, mixed dwelling planned + The policy recommended with regards to and the Jesus areas. community. To successfully guarantee the creating a buffer zone for the Three Bay consolidation of these nuclei of urban settlement National Park between its South limit and Asillustrated in Figure 56, these three elements, and thus prevent further scattering of development RN6, with activities of all types that could the PIC, the Champin and the Jesus settlements, the adaptation of the lands with road, water and absorb all the pressures from outside as well would serve as the basic articulating elements of a sanitation infrastructure should be undertaken. This as provide the necessary services and opportunities for economic exploitation TP associated to the Park; rf e The clear presence of three highly attractive places human settlement as a result of the IK B- g > ns modeling, all of them inside or adjacent to the N Æ. x er I : L 4 buffer zone: L à | pa | RK # ) ° The significant demand that the University of po & 1. TS à 4h Limonade will create in its immediate zone, « à N NO ee NN - d e The very significant demand that the PICis k |, 144 | EX S &\ ; Nu creating and will continue to create. b } / Er K T NO In the case of the settlement areas in the 74 je V RKRIS NS Ve ( “ neighborhood of the University of Limonade the + fe ) IR NIK V & w, proposal would configure a linear continuum that PA À KV 7 not necessarily benefits the flow of goods and EE SK NZ / + TD, services that utilize RN6G. It is also clear that under 1E > 2 VE INK FA Ÿ j : £ the present circumstances in Haïti it is difficult to € 4 SI & RS 4 LEP # / 7 A SSSR SS M ur > determine if, in the near future, new road ÿ Ni SF D ARNNP 22": + D » Er. infrastructure will be developed. Therefore, a ] CSN f MAT L 12 7 0 DS N : Be cf | ER P\\ Ce SAN Lu better approach is to develop a good plan that ISSN a Wat | F ; F4 nt maximizes the opportunities of proximity and C1 Parc des Trois Baies Zone de développement urbain planifié === Route principale location while minimizing potential negative effects EI Zone urbaines 2 Zone de agriculture durable —— Route secondaire . : Fo. L__] Zone inondable/Forêt riveraine Zones de peuplement très contrôlés —— Routes tertiaires on traffic. This hypothesis will nevertheless be LL] Bâtiments Plantation de banana confirmed with a mobility study that is currently in = Plus restreint __ Polygones d'extension progress for the same region. = — Rivière principale EM Plus attractif —— Rivière secondaire In the area surrounding the PIC, and given the fact Figure 56 - Preferred locations for consolidating new urban settlements in the PIC area that this major facility has two access points at the east and west, it is very likely and recommendable Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), that a functional loop be formed between the USAID-OFDA (c.2012), 05M (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013 == EMERGING Los NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 80 tnitiative ERM [page 89] could begin a process in which different buffer zone surrounding the PIC should be linear urbanization along RN6 as well as the roads organizations could locate their individual efforts implemented. In addition, a critical role would be leading to Trou-du-Nord and Terrier Rouge, those and projects in the neighborhood. played by the areas depicted in yellow between areas would have to be rapidly destined to agro- EKAM, Trou-du-Nord and Champin, which considers industrial activities of the scale of the banana and For the a proper evolution of the entire setting, a that, in order to prevent the consolidation of a sisal plantations that are being set up nearby. = The protection of the green zones that appear L'4 between the two roads connecting Trou-du-Nord with the PIC and Jesus would also be essential for N SSI the success of this scheme. These interventions ; Ne [ Y 78 ë would ensure a balanced, sustainable becoming of Ÿ ND à rs | RQ Ë « J / this region. SN K NN }. | FN Sa AZ À 7.11 The Three Bays Marine Park =” NI NS KR re { 5 F FA In December 2013, the Government of Haïti created | La & \ ’ js ne: NN IR Sy the Parc National des Trois Baies or Three Bays |? Ï p | 0 4 S ù à DS Marine Park. This covers an area of approximately D A { F sn S 18 | NS) à 1Sù N 90,000 hectares that includes the bays of Limonade, D Æ 2. D | NS \ Vre & Va Caracol and Fort Liberté, as well as the Lagon aux Fe = y) À NS À * 4e Boeufs to the east of Fort Liberté. £ € e SFA Ÿ 19 Fe d This newly established marine protection area will 1{ > & 4 1 + A ® d help protect the mangroves, eel grass beds, reefs € VS ” Æ # ne É and habitats housing important fisheries that are 1 8à DIS 2" 4 ne ES ; crucial for providing livelihoods to nearby 2 D IS a ET A : Là 7: À D communities. It will also help protect the area from RER LA Fe) Ÿ td + 4 sms storm surges and provide local communities with = Parc des Trois Baies Zone de développement urbain planifié == Route principale ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, LJ Zone urbaines ES Zone de agriculture durable . —— Route secondaire tourism value and more. The area is also home to — Cr bulle sera tal raison RER 227 oqateur te numerous threatened species, including sea turtles, Es Plus restreint | Polygones d'extension es panoramique et piste cyclable whales, manatees and migratory birds. = — Rivière principale Zone de isolement du PIC EM Pius attractif —— Rivière secondaire To recognize and protect the Three Bays Marine Figure 57 - Creating a planned, integrated community with the PIC as pivot. Park, a series of 'preemptive zoning' classes has . : been developed in conjunction with the IDB's Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID- specialists who are supporting the Three Bays OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis Marine Park development. Figure 58 illustrates the from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013 proposed zoning as follows: == EMERGING Los NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 81 A ritistive ERM [page 90] 1. Coral reefs. This a marine ecosystem of high areas identified as currently exhibiting any of economic value derived from the services it the kinds of settlements discussed in the next provides including i) fish, crustaceans and Chapter. They correspond, largely, to the Bord other marine species that sustain large de Mer de Limonade, La Chappelle, Borony, portions of the local population and ex-ports; Monto-lon and La Genevré areas in the üi) shoreline protection, providing a barrier to municipality of Limonade; in the municipality storm surge and impacts of hurricanes on the of Caracol, they include the Southwest areas shore. Coral reef health is closely linked to of En Bas Saline, Car-acol, Jackezy and the that of the sea grass and mangrove Caracol Industrial Park. Additional areas not ecosystems, and iii) very important carbon visible in the map in Paulette and Phaeton. sink, sequestering atmospheric carbon. Currently threatened by overfishing and sediment load from eroded watersheds. 2. See grasses. Critical habitat for juvenile stage of fish species, turtles, manatees and other species. They play and important role in sequestering carbon. (not visible in map) 3. High flood zones. This category covers the sea grasses zone, the man-grove areas, and extends beyond the latter into the mainland. The man-groves have been declared for complete protection, providing critical ecosystem services such as i) nurseries for commercially important fish species as well as crustaceans, mollusks and bird nesting habitat; ii) shoreline protection from storm surge, sea level rise and hurricanes. Currently threatened by charcoal production, firewood collection, salt production techniques and overfishing. Communities such as Jaquezy, Caracol, and Madrasse have been established in this area and are seriously threatened by increasing risk of flooding and storm damage. The risk is greatly exacerbated by illegal destruction of mangroves. 4. Zones where the population process needs to be highly controlled. This corresponds to the NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 82 t<C À ge *IDB ERM [page 91] F D, à ‘ F = > De À fa 6 LE } < _à h ; Ms rt D tai 4 HS ÿ Ù F 4 : Le D, 2 } à 4 ES Lt Aer 7 = n, + F ê 4 se 7 Le é | 4 Fee Le 3 1 s 7 Lee ci f fe L* + D. 4 l / F £ £ 3 Ée Q] 25 5 10 À j R TILL TRE ] Em Océan Atlantique MN Zone de agriculture durable mass | ii — Féci coralhen mm Zones uroaines SRE C2 Zone d'étude - Zone tampon Ge 2 mme se een ne | 21100 C1 Parc National des Trois Baies MMM Plantation de banana SE EE TE Ligne de terre ferme EM Future plantation de sisal NE EM Zone innodation élevé —— Route principale [sus de poupiement tres contre | Antass | CITE Em Zone de peuplement très contrôlés | mn Zone de patrimoine culturel et tourisme durable es 7 AE Figure 58 - Preemptive zoning classes proposed for the Three Bays Marine Park Sources: Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. #5 GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 83 EU ERM [page 92] 5. Zones for the protection of cultural heritage as pilotis. No expansion ought to be allowed, addition, five mitigation strategies have been and the promotion of sustainable tourism. which would therefore require efforts to re- explored in more detail through a cost-benefit These correspond, largely, to the entire West locate population outside the boundaries of analysis. coast of the Bay of Fort Liberté and the North the park. The urban areas outside the shores of the area of study between the protected area, but nevertheless exerting To facilitate a prioritization of hazards, a simple straight of the former bay and the point direct and indirect impacts on it, require methodology has been developed based on a where the coral reefs begin. Inland, these particularly strong planning and control comparison of the maximum probable losses for areas extend between 500 m and 1 km inland, structures in regard to solid waste each hazard. À matrix is presented in that identifies which is where a large number pre-Columbian management, water use and effluents. Finally, the relative area of concern based on probability and colonial era fortifications and other (expressed by the return period) and estimated heritage elements are still visible. Additional 8. A buffer zone to absorb and provide the impact (expected losses). areas of smaller size not visible in this map necessary economic processes and but accounted for in the modeling process settlements that would support and be Hazards that tend to occupy the top left-hand would also be part of this class. Appropriate supported by the park. À band of land and quadrant of the chart, Quadrant A, have a high uses include restoration and man-aged water immediately external to, but probability (occur with the most frequency) and visitation, guided walks etc. of cultural sites contiguous with, the park, where have a potential high impact (high damage). and small scale sustainable tourism development is strictly managed to be low Therefore, these are likely to be of greatest concern infrastructure. intensity and compatible with the to stakeholders, and consequently should be a conservation objectives of PN3B. Plantations focus for risk reduction planning efforts. Areas of 6. Zones of sustainable agriculture. A large of sisal, banana and others in this zone would secondary concern are those hazards identified in extension of the terrestrial area of the park have to certify production to be free from use Quadrants B and C. consists of land that is appropriate for of chemical inputs which negatively affect ecotourism, culture-focused tourism and biodiversity in the Park such as pesticides and Damage Recurrence Comparison other forms of sustainable tourism as well as fertilizers. The park’s regulations refer to a 5 | sustainable agricultural practices which are km south of the boundary. This could be : | B compatible with the conservation of natural attained to the east of the park, but to the É | train resources i.e. that conserve soil, water, West, that is in the NDC area, this should be E L biodiversity and ecological cycles and prevent extended to the limits of RN6. ë D | nn | run off into the bays. Plantations such as a » (a | D banana or sisal or any other kind could take 7.12 Risk Reduction Recommendations É His Een place in the former areas of the Dauphin plantation. 712.1 Risk Ranking Recurrence RP, years 7. Urban areas. Inside the park there would Section hazard and risk assessment studies4 Fi 59-F k for Relative Risk Evaluati have to be a highly controlled mechanism of presents the hazard and risk assessment for the igure 59 - Framework for Relative Risk Evaluation urban groutth. The settlements located on prioritized natural hazards, and Table 7 summarizes . . : . the hazard losses for each hazard. This section azards in Quadrant B have a low probability of areas affected by flooding ought to be re- buïlds upon these results and compares and occurrence but have a potentially high impact, located. The remaining êreas ought tobere- prioritizes the hazards and presents a series of while hazards in Quadrant C have a high probability developed with an adaptive architecture, such general risk reduction recommendations. In of occurrence but low impact. Hazards categorized à + NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 84 t<C À ge *IDB ERM [page 93] in Quadrant D are likely to be of lowest relative evaluate the relative risks. hazard, simply calculated as the total expected concern because they are predicted to have both a losses divided by the Mean Return Period, low probability and a low impact; however, this Figure 60 maps hazards for which both recurrence representing the amount of capital the local framework does not necessarily negate the and damage/loss estimates were calculated in this governments would have to set aside to cover the importance of addressing hazards that fall into risk assessment: earthquake, hurricane, flooding, damages for such an event. shows a comparison of Quadrant D (low probability, low impact). and coastal flooding. It provides a systematic losses for different hazards based on the aggregate framework from which to compare and prioritize losses for a specific return period and the losses per Ranking hazards that fall into Quadrants A, B, and C hazards. It is important to keep in mind that the year. For example, earthquake and hurricane depends on the level of risk tolerance or comparison does not represent an absolute ranking hazards show highest losses. The coastal flood and importance a specific hazard might have to the of hazards, but has been developed to assist in inland floods have comparatively lower losses. community. evaluation of the results so as to help decision When compared in terms of loss per 1000 USD/per | | makers prioritize mitigation measures. year, coastal flooding and hurricane hazard are the Figure 60 provides a plot of the losses (general top two hazards and followed by earthquake and occupancy and infrastructure losses) vs. return The comparison is also presented in tabular form in inland floods. period for each hazard and is an effective way to and is based on an expected loss per year for each Table 34 - Comparison of Hazards for the study area Damage/Loss Comparison uen Total Loss Loss 1800 (1016 {US$)/ 1 A (NE) US$) year 1600 = Û 1400 1 £ 1 £ 1200 I Coëstal FIoOdIng 2 1000 L a = ————————— z 800 I e 7.12.2 General Risk Reduction Interventions Ed É 600 ! s In Haïti, the most urgent risk reduction measure is & 400 1 to increase economic opportunity and alleviate Û poverty and improve living conditions to reduce risk 200 L to natural disasters. While increased wealth is not a 0 Ë I save all for reducing the impact of natural hazards, ï ï it is often the poor that are less able to afford to 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 relocate or resettle in areas that are less prone to Recurrence (Years) natural hazards. The poor are also less prone to rebuild or reinvest after a disaster. This section lays —+— Coastal Flooding —#—Flooding —#—Earthquake —@— Hurricane out some general sustainability interventions to increase disaster resilience and reduce losses. Figure 60 - Standardizing loss damage recurrence comparison for the study area #4 GIDB Los à + NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 85 te EU ERM [page 94] Earthquake Hazard lesser degree. Restricted areas should include Several sustainability options for reducing or The section below highlights some high level locations in coastal areas and very steep hillsides. mitigating risk associated with in-land flooding interventions and mitigation measures, as well as Again, building design standards and construction hazards include: recommendations, to improve the characterization practices take precedence, however, there are a of the earthquake hazard, should be considered. few specific and design considerations for ° Development in the high hazard flood area hurricanes which include: should be restricted especially within The fact that most of the study area is comprised of identified floodway. High risk lands should not deep, unconsolidated alluvial sediments, where the ° Orientation of the building relative to site be considered for future development. If ground shaking hazard is high, the most important topography; development occurs within high hazard flood mitigation recommendation for reducing seismic ° Ensurethatthere are stabilizing measures areas, there should be detailed planning and risk is to develop a more detailed understanding of incorporated into the design and construction development criteria that ensures that the the hazard itself. Development a detailed seismic of building, especially the connections property is built above base flood elevation. risk or zonation map for the entire study area, between building parts; ° In high hazard areas where there is existing which details maximum accelerations and allow for ° __ Debris removal in vacant lands to reduce development (formal and informal the identification of high risk districts, will be critical flying projectiles, securing urban furniture, settlements), bank stabilization should be for identifying specific risk areas and to prioritize and the burying of utility lines, etc. are simple pursued to help reduce flooding and erosion risk reduction activities. measures that can work to reduce damages so as to help contain river flooding to during wind storms; and watercourses. The re-vegetation of river Another recommendation is to ensure that new * Reducing the amount of clear cutting as banks is an important consideration for construction is designed and built in accordance to vegetation stabilizes soil and trees provide binding silt and soil to reduce water erosion international building standards and codes friction and stabilization from winds. due to flooding. (residential, commercial, institutional and ° In areas where there is urban flooding due to industrial). All construction should ensure that The general poor construction characterizing much overland flows, drainage infrastructure should there is proper reinforcement in walls and that of the study area is again tied to Haiti’s poor be improved to facilitate the flow of water building connections including roof connections to economy and limited building code enforcement. away from settlements and back to water the walls, wall connections to each other and the Building codes have little relevance if they are not courses. In rural areas, special attention connection of walls to a strong foundation are applicable to local construction practices, do not should be given to dredging irrigation present in all new construction. support known engineering solutions, and have not channels and in some case surfacing with . . ; been tested. concrete bases so as to increase the flow of For large construction projects and infrastructure water to farmland and out of farmland. developments, site specific selsmic assessments Inland Flooding °__Byfarthe most important measure for should be undertaken to identify geologic . The foremost consideration for flood hazard should riverine flooding during intense rainfall events constraints for the construction of critical facilities be given to building a careful record of precipitation is awareness and education. The and major infrastructure. information within and surrounding the study development of public awareness and public Hurricane Émied the ab L umdersiand in deal he loc caen compagne shoule be argeted for Hurricanes tend not to be tied to a specific location, in regimes. high risk groups to Increase hazard especially in such a small geographic study area as knowledge, Improve risk perception and foster risk avoidance behavior such as the study area. Nevertheless, there are areas where : development should be restricted to a greater or Evacuation. à + NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 86 < ' QU GIDB ERM [page 95] Coastal Flooding populations, which will mean focusing resources study area. The reforestation of upland areas There are several sustainability options for reducing toward prevention as opposed to response and should be pursued, along with a series of filtration or mitigating risk associated with coastal flooding recovery. ditches and natural walls to help in reducing the hazards. The ability to relocate settlements or loss of land by erosion and will help in develop adapt existing infrastructure for protection is Other adaptive responses may include preventing more stable hydrological cycle. For such limited by resources, but the physical expansion hazard impacts by building strengthening protective approaches, financial or in-kind incentives to and the growth of settlements is not. Therefore, in structures. involve communities should be explored. coastal high hazard areas, the expansion of settlements should be discouraged and the Drought The construction of reservoirs and the revitalization construction of private and public infrastructure, The hydrological assessment has indicated that of irrigation systems may also be another option for including roads, energy sub-stations, drains and demand for water will increase and the water stabilizing the water supply in communities. While housing settlements should be limited. The location potential will diminish due to increased population the construction of reservoirs for each community and nature of planned infrastructure should draw and development pressures. Therefore, it will be does not help restore natural resource area, they on forecasted inundation maps developed under paramount that policy makers consider actions that can be effective mechanisms for the storage of this study. will help reduce the impact of water deficits in the rainwater which can be used during dry seasons study area, especially during dry periods. (June to October). Such investments will improve The protection and expansion of coastal wetlands access to water for agriculture and rural and estuaries is also an important measure that In view future demands, a watershed management households. If reservoirs are designed correctly, should be considered. Wetlands that are linked to approach to mitigating the effects of drought they can be linked to new or integrated into existing the coast and estuaries serve as a natural buffer should be pursued. Integrated watershed irrigation distribution systems. Attention should be against storm surges, sea-level rise and wave action management should be incorporated into more given to the revitalization of a series of historic in particular. Natural features help to absorb large diversified development planning for the region so canals that are found throughout the study area. volumes of advancing water, and as a result, have a as to address problems related to land degradation dissipating effect on wave energy. Further and unsustainable land use practices (i.e. Finally, more education and outreach is required to reduction to the size of wetlands and estuaries, is to deforestation). increase the efficiency of water utilization in the discount their importance that these natural . area. In this regard, effective institutional support resources play in reducing the impact of coastal The focus of a watershed management planning (including assistance from international donors) will hazards. approach should be to increase ground infiltration be paramount. Projects, particularly technical so as to increase the water stock and reduce the assistance focusing on increasing efficiency water The lack of an effective storm water system for impact of flooding. Many studies have shown that utilization, must take into consideration local land discharging high volumes of water has hindered when local water catchment areas are protected, use practices and farming methods so as to identify development meaningful responses to flooding and the vulnerability of local agriculture is reduced. local adaptation measures that have a chance of coastal flooding hazards. Drainage infrastructure Such approaches will help restore functions natural being implemented. International donors can play a needs to be improved to relieve coastal inundation drainage areas and increase the supply of water role in funding the required research needed to caused by coastal storms or heavy rainfall events. and have an additional impact in reducing flooding develop such local level approaches, as well as fund impacts in low lying areas. Reforestation is a critical government institutions to disseminate information The coastal flooding hazard should be incorporated component in any watershed conservation program on innovative locally-based interventions that into disaster management prevention programs. in Haïti. The planting of forest lands, even for tree address drought and climate change. There is a need to take into consideration crops (coffee) agroforestry (teak) purposes, will coordinate responses for the evacuation of high risk help developing sustainable water resources in the “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 87 EU GTS ERM [page 96] 7.12.3 Risk Reduction Case Studies illustrate how decisions regarding the utilization of over time due to the introduction of better Le . | land may impact future losses in the study area. The building practices and improvements in Specific recommendations and projects that are . : k : : Le assessed in this section, were identified based upon two situations are as follows: construction materials. A vulnerability field observations, stakeholder discussions and also : : : multiplier was used to update/modify the from ensuring tangible and practical projects could * Aïtakesinto consideration the targeted building performance from the present to be implemented. Given the intensity and frequency development projects and utilizes a linear 2040. The vulnerability parameter used for - . extrapolation of population growth and land situation A is based on an assumption that the of flooding (both inland and coastal), these hazards use to project spatial development and development pressures will continue on the have been given priority for risk reduction growth on its current trajectory and assumes current trajectory and that urbanized areas assessment. that there are not any interventions that are will increase by 7.45% and that little A Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) model has been used put in place to limit urban expansion and/or improvements will be made to existing to assess the likely costs and benefits of identified the further deterioration ofthe natural infrastructure, while the Situation B, assumes mitigation measures, focusing on the following resource base within and around the study the same rate of population increase, but mitigation strategies in high risk areas: area; and : urban expansion will be limited and only + ___B:all targeted development projects for the increase by 2.6% due to increased density ° Upgrade Urban Drainage Infrastructure: study areas are accelerated, but where requirements for future development. B also ° Rural Drainage Infrastructure growth is controlled by taking into considers that future development in hazard Implementation; consideration sustainability opportunities and prone areas will be limited and/or reduced. ° Revitalize Historical Canal System To Alleviate constraints as projected this report. Both include assumptions that construction Flooding; nef ik f h .. practices, in terms of workmanship and + Upland Reforestation; and By comparing future risk for a growth projection materials, will improve incrementally over | without the consideration of land use planning time. . mangrove Protection In the Three Bays recommendations (A) to a fast growth development ° Exposure— population grouth estimates is scenario that takes into consideration land use used to predict future exposure (value of Appendix 10 contains the details of the five UE SL Pond ue ann ao à risk buildings and infrastructure) across the study strategies explored and the methodology applied, reduction measure is clearly demonstrated. For this regon and sed à linear regression analysis ° and the results are summarized below in Table 35. - ; ay estimate the increased value of assets (i.e. comparison, a risk projection model was used, buildings infrastructure, etc.). Therefore, the 712.4 Land Use Planning to Manage Future which combines three different components to model assumes that exposure values will Risks understand the potential future losses for each increase proportional to population growth | : hazard for a projected time period to 2040: and will be uniform across different land use The section above has elaborated on specific categories in the study region as defined in approaches to reducing risk by introducing and e Hazard -The hazard intensity/frequency for different development scenarios. analyzing specific management options (structural relationship is assumed to increase due to and nonstructural). This section looks at the climate change. To provide a consistent basis Table 35 provides a benchmark for decision makers potential impacts of the introduction of land use from which to compare hazards a 100-year to understand the implications of implementing the planning as a method to reduce risks in the future. return period is used. urban land use planning recommendations, which + Vulnerability—The general characteristics of incorporates mitigation measures and introduces a A comparative assessment of future risks has been the built environment are expected to change undertaken considering two situations so as to “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 88 t<C IL ERM [page 97] Table 35 - Potential Losses, 10" 6USD these options should be taken forward for possible planning and pre-feasibility studies. CT [M Agg. Potential Agg. Potential Loss as a % of Agg. Potential Loss as a % of Finally the analysis provides a basis for examining Exposure Value Exposure Value continues in an unplanned fashion, and how 1694.47 2947.67 51.69% | 1784.13 31.29% through the smart growth scenarios, where the |'FloodingHazard | 1097 14.86 FU p26œ | ss | | 8.95 0.16% hazard maps are considered and factored into future growth models, the future losses can be 815.81 1023.62 17.95% | 615.89 10.80% significantly reduced and citizens can meet the 93.47 133.94 2.35% | 80.79 1.42% following goals: sensible utilization of land as a way of reducing the impacts and prioritizing actions by laying out + Provide information to planners and negative consequences of reducing risks. general sustainability interventions that should be reviewers who make land use decisions to considered for building more sustainably in the channel development to low hazard areas The total aggregated loss estimates for 2013 study area. and/or flag development proposed in high amounted to 2.61B USD (i.e. a summation of the hazard areas. aggregate losses for each hazard). Under situation These analyses are preliminary and they indicate ° Recommend sustainable locations for major À, aggregate losses for each hazard are expected to options to be taken forward for more detailed developments projects and/or infrastructure increase substantially. However, if the urban land analysis. The mangrove protection in the Three projects, including public facilities, and use planning and sustainability recommendations Bays Marine Park, urban drainage infrastructure residential, commercial, and industrial from this study are incorporated, which have upgrade, and upland reforestation are three most development. utilized hazard and risk maps generated as part of promising interventions. The mangrove protection ° Support the conservation of natural this study to minimize future growth in more and upland reforestation, being non-structural resources, and the designation of critical vulnerable areas, the projected potential aggregate measures, will also start providing benefits to the areas, agricultural land, or historical losses for most hazards is greatly reduced from the wider environment in terms of supporting resources. loss estimates for 2013 and represent environmental protection, aquifer recharge and approximately 44% of the projected total exposure biodiversity enhancement, in addition to the flood To avoid losses occasioned by these hazards, there values in 2040 (2.48B USD). management and hazard protections. The urban is a need for the new approaches and strategies to and rural drainage upgrade will be benerficial be put in place. The International Strategy for Therefore, a substantial amount of potential future immediately after implementation. It is necessary Disaster Reduction (ISDR -http://www.unisdr.org) losses can be avoided if the land use to note that while the canal revitalization appears recognizes this and emphasizes the importance of recommendations are implemented. to be low yielding investment due to the lesser understanding local risk patterns, developing beneficiary areas (sparse settlements and low strategies to decentralize responsibilities at the 7.12.5 Risk Reduction Summary exposure at risk), it does not preclude conducting relevant sub-national or local levels, and supports The information outlined in this section should be such analysis in areas with denser populations, and integration of risk reduction, as appropriate, used to inform citizens and decision makers about which may yield different results. Considering the into development and planning policies. hazards and the risks. This section in particular satisfactory benefit cost ratio of top four scenarios, provides a basis for understanding the hazard “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 89 t<C IL ERM [page 98] Table 36 - Summary of risk mitigation measures Upgrade Key Urban Drainage Rural Drainage Infrastructure Revitalize Historical Canal Upland Reforestation of the Mangrove Reforestation in the Infrastructure Implementation System to Alleviate Flooding Trou Du Nord Watershed Parc National Trois Baies FEES D— let} P + | Un | 2 + — 1 4 Y Î - e Limonade used as a case study e Example of land drain west e The revitalization of the e Sustainable mitigation e Serve as a natural buffer ° Upgrade drainage to cope of Caracol canals in northern Haïti measure to increase the against storm surges, sea- With flooding during heavy < Address overland flows in e Comprise dredging to interception of water in the level rise and wave action. rain (increase capacity) rural areas remove silt and increasing upper reaches of watershed e Proposed that a 5km strip of e_Increase in open drainage e_Install new drainage to cope the cross-sectional area of e Will also work to prevent soil mangrove be reforested (assumed 18km) With overland flooding the canals erosion and contribute to along coast line. during heavy rain e Alength of 3.8kmis forest conservation ° This would mean about 300 evaluated (near Jacquezil) e Benefits will be tied to a sq.km of area would be longer time horizon planted. Over 20 years: Over 20 years: Over 20 years: Over 20 years: Over 20 years: © Costs: $3m © Costs: $0.9m e Costs: $0.2m e Costs: $1.2m © Costs: $6.7m e Benefits: S7.7m e Benefits: S1.1m e Benefits: S0.1m e Benefits: S2.8m e Benefits: S60.4m ° CBA: 2.5, which represents a ° CBA: 0.7, which represents ° CBA: 0.7, which represents ° CBA: 2.3, which represents a e CBA:9, which represents an good investment an okay investment an okay investment good investment excellent investment “+##% GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 90 t<C IL ERM [page 99] 8. CONCLUSIONS AND be preserved for their bio-diversity and/or In terms of human settlement, as illustrated RECOMMENDATIONS: À SMART vegetation quality index, and other land use therein, the scenario is that in which the urban : decisions of similar nature. footprints of the main townships that comprise the GROWTH SCENARIO region outside the Three Bays National Park are + Understanding and defining the ‘pre-emptive” expanded between 5 and 100 hectares each, in all 8.1 Study Focus zoning classes that should be considered in cases on surrounding areas identified as the most This study seeks to address the complex question of the Three Bays National Park. Fur of Bord de Mer de Linennde Cacol. NDC of WI special eme on hou bunian + Seeking to define the ‘geography’ of what and Jacquezy, are kept with their current ‘ : nt . could be called ‘human settlement for a di j i he Three Bays National ttl t should light of the different 6 imensions in response to the Three Bays National dynamics and forces that wi shape Population sustainable future’ of the region. This has Park intention to limit and if possible reduce the irationt : been assessed by understanding existing urban footprint inside its territory. In all three Fe sauge to adress te question ous 9 patterns, building efforts, levels of urban cases, a program of re-densification based on an different angles that included the following: density that could realistically be pursued in architecture of pilotis (which is also applied to the ‘ the different townships of the region, and non or low risk flooding areas in Caracol and Bord ° _ Understanding the context from physical, most importantly, testing these parameters in de Mer de Limonade) is also proposed in order to socio-spatial and socio-economic points of each one of the townships to determine how establish a culture of edification that is more view. would they perform in terms of their capacity resilient. ° to accommodate the projected land demands. ° Analyzing recent planning efforts that have In the cases in which areas of expansion In this scenario, in which it is assumed that the been key in tracing orientations with regards would be required for the townships, the Government of Haiti will be able to control the to the area; contrasting, comparing and exercise included tracing them in accordance expansion of Caracol and Bord de Mer de building on their conclusions. with the results of the modeling. Limonade, and has acquired resources to carry out a gradual, integrated socio-economically equitable e Conducting additional supplementary + Attempting to define the areas in which new, and creative process of resettlement, two new population analyses and projections with planned settlements should be pursued, as a areas have emerged as contemporary towns. One regards to the residential land demand. This result of the significant impact that the PIC is of them is in the Champin and Jesus areas, and the was undertaken for a slow and a fast growth having in the region, the increased economic other in the University of Limonade — EKAM area. scenario projected to 2040, based on the activities associated to the University of These contemporary towns are well designed, with patterns that would be seen in the region Limonade, the large plantations that are a variety of mid to high density dwelling solutions, following the implementation development appearing in the area and the need to provide connected between themselves and with the projects that are being planned. alternatives for the coastal townships. townships in the area through a system of bicycle and landscaped paths. °__ Determining, through geo-spatial suitability 8.2 Smart Development Scenario modelling applied with a ‘balanced approach’ The results of putting these pieces together are of restrictions and attractions, what lands presented in Figure 61 which outlines would be more suitable for urbanization, recommendations for the Northern Development where should the existing patterns of Corridor Smart Development Scenario. agriculture be preserved, which areas should “+ ##% GIDB Los NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 91 t<C IL ERM [page 100] L 4 2 ACa Li PP e. 4 ; Re. f RS 2 C- 4 f S À | 0 1] me ! Fa ST Be ) He UE - , Le / £ À 4 ÿ x { À 3 p il A ‘4 k d D, nt \ | =: x À À 4 f d Ai ï "FE f 5h À ) à g | £ « À aa & L a F7 à ? 4) À L4 "4 1 4 K » ÿ dd à VER SF ga INA \ F “ | 7 À à a 4 1 C1 Zone d'étude EN Marécages a vegetation herbacee Marais salants MM Développé à haute intensité EM Plan d'eau D Future plantation de sisal MM Développé à moyenne intensité Les zones humides boisées EN Plantation de banana Développé faible intensité I Les zones humides émergeant Récif corallien Espace ouvert développé SK Zone de développement urbain planifié IN Océan Atlantique I Cuitivé D Zone de patrimoine culturel et tourisme durable nn Pâturage M Zone de agriculture durable EN Forêt M Zones de peuplement très contrôlés Figure 61 - Smart Development Scenario for Haïti's Northern Development Corridor Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013 ds. EMERGING = Lo CHE GIDB NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 92 Initiative ERM [page 101] Inside the Three Bays National Park, the mangrove proactively addressed by the relevant discussed in the previous point, there would areas so critical for the survival of this biodiverse governmental, aid organizations and key economic be no need for the Government or aid Caribbean hotspot are healthy and are not suffering stakeholders in the region: organizations to directly provide housing the pressures posed by those seeking their solutions, at least for the lower middle and livelihood in their exploitation for charcoal. This is + Address the land property rights system in the superior income levels. The limitations for a in part thanks to the emergence of alternative sense of creating a cadaster formalizing parcel more varied housing and socially diverse sources. Consequently, the mudflats next to the boundaries, land uses, owner information, setting appear to be the lack of infrastructure mangroves are preserved, which are followed by a assessed value, and similar elements that are and social services that could drive families continuous protection forest. essential for planners and decision makers to and individuals to establish in a given setting. properly understand the situation. This Consequently, efforts to build large housing The elements described above manage to coexist in element is also fundamental for creating a complexes could be put to a more effective a balanced way, the system of zones of sustainable visible, transparent and effective land and real and sustainable use by enhancing the agriculture, of cultural heritage and sustainable estate market, which would be a key driver of infrastructure and social services in cities and tourism will have greater opportunity for thriving, a ‘better’ or more ‘sustainable’ territorial townships, as well as creating two new providing new and better alternatives for native order, as well a major contributor to raising infrastructure and social services ready areas settlers and farmers. This includes the renewed, peoples and families from poverty. À cadaster around the University of Limonade and massive sisal plantations that have given more would also bring clarity with respect to the around the PIC. prime matter for the industries in the PIC, as well as lands belonging to the public realm, which the banana plantations. would play a key role in defining where would e The efforts of the many aid organizations and it be less costly for society as a whole to plan the IDB could be put together for the creation Outside the park, the agricultural lands whose and program interventions such as the ‘new of a sustainable setting in the region. Instead vocation is for this activity, together with those that city that has been discussed for this region. of dividing the actions of different have been traditionally used as such continue to do Finally, the cadaster should be implemented organizations by sector and within that by so, with no additional scattered settlements in equal terms for both the rural and the locale, a concerted plan acting on existing appearing on this realm thanks to the efforts and urban settings. townships and future areas of integrated attraction created by the new, integrated planned development such as the ones proposed in settlements in the PIC and University areas. In all e Focus governmental and aid work on this study, would yield much better results. three realms, the coast and Park, the valley, and the infrastructure, social services and productive mountainous areas all the elements are protected operations such as the PIC. An important + This study has demonstrated the unused that require this as a result of their environmental discovery was to find that there is an active opportunities and capacity that existing cities or ecological valie. Consequently, fresh water will and significantly large market of construction and townships have to accommodate growth flow from peaks, through natural channels, before materials (although some of them are and its demands. Consequently, there should reaching the wonderful biodiversity area that the produced or extracted with negative be a proactive move at intervening in these mangroves form. environmental consequences) as well as a places, not only through the land good array of engineering and construction regularization and formalization process 8.3 Challenges to be Addressed firms with good capacity to build complete discussed above, but also on the different : : urbanizations. Should these factors be put at mechanisms that are needed to unlock the For a proper implementation of the proposed : : sustainable development scenario, there are a play in a transparent and private urban land and real estate markets. series of fundamental issues that would need to be entrepreneurship context such as the one “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 93 A ON LL: ERM [page 102] + Developing one or two integrated planned settings in the neighborhood of the PIC and the University of Limonade is essential for reducing the pressures on the coastal townships, because of the proximity to the opportunities for employment and services that these facilities create, which could deter the pursuit of those townships as places to live or even induce migration from them. It is important to base these planned settings on the land suitability analyses presented in this report to protect and enhance environmental resources. + The long term sustainability of this region also depends on the pursuit of alternative routes connecting Cap Haïtien, Ouanaminthe and the Dominican Republic. This scenario shows the path that one of such routes could take, in which many a benefit would be accrued: reduced impact on environmentally or agriculturally productive lands, better access to markets by mountain communities, and lesser use of the flood, hurricane and other hazard exposed areas along the coast. à + NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 94 te À EU *IDB ERM [page 103] 9. BIBLIOGRAPHY IADB (c.2013) NATHAT 2012 IHSI 2012. Total Population, Population 18 years OSM (2013) and older households and Densities Are times in AIA Legacy, American Institute of Architects. Cap 2012, IHSI, Departments of Vital Statistics and OCHA (c.2010) Haïtien - Ouanaminthe Development Corridor Social, January 2012 Regional Comprehensive Plan. Vol. 1.3 vols. Port- d PDNA (2010) Au-Prince: AIA - IADB - USAID, 2012. IHSI 2009a. Total Population, Population 18 years and older households and Densities Are times in USAID-OFDA (c.2012) —. Cap Haïtien - Ouanaminthe Development 2009, IHSI, Departments of Vital Statistics and Corridor Regional Comprehensive Plan. Vol. 2.3 Social, January 2009 vols. Port-Au-Prince: AIA - IADB - USAID, 2012. IHSI 2009b. Trends and Prospects of Population in CNGIS (c.2012) Haïti at the Departments and Commons 2000-2015, IHSI, Directions of Demographic and Social Comité Interministériel d'Aménagement du Statistics, February 2009 Territoire. La Gestion Intégrée Des Bassins Versants en Haïti: - Méthodologie de délimitation IHSI and CELADE / ECLAC 2008. Estimates and cartographique des bassins versants. Rapport final, Projections of the Total Population, Urban and Port-au-Prince: CIAT, 2010. Rural and economically active, IHSI - Census Bureau and Latin American Demographic Centre, CELADE / —. Plan d'Aménagement du Nord / Nord-Est: ECLAC, May 2008 Couloir Cap - Ouanaminthe. Port au Prince: CIAT, 2012. IHSI 2009c. Socio-demographic Large Lessons learned from 4th RGPH, IHSI - Bureau of the Census, DTM (2013) February 2009 Famine Early Warning Systems Network, HAITI Food IHSI 2004. Results of the Fourth General Census of Security Outlook Update, June 2012 Population and Housing, IHSI 2004 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2004. Technical Cooperation Programme. IPCCSRES Project Title: Assistance to improve Local IPCC AR4 and 5 Agricultural Emergency Preparedness in Caribbean countries highly prone to hurricane related Joerin and Thériault (2001). Joerin, Florent and disasters. Thériault, Marius. Using GIS and outranking multicriteria analysis for land use suitability Glaeser, Edward. Triumph of the City: How Our assessment. International Journal on Geographic Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Information Science, 2001, VOL. 15, No. 2, 153-174 Greener, Healthier and Happier. New York, NY: The Penguin Press, 2011. NATHAT (2010) “+ ##% GIDB L9 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 95 t< IL ERM [page 104] APPENDIX 1: Individual GIS Maps for the Ecological System c<# SIDB À NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI Appendix latin ERM [page 105] Figure A1 — Topography of the NDC + ee L 7 Fr: Le Fe 4 ÿ ci ——, s A Le. Ê * # pa “18 à à. Cr ar ERL DE Cry: eF. (* | * ; : Réf PIN “2 SE : é É EN PR ve dr: 5 SE : wi <E SE QE m Che DE Ms 0 AE MR SR Ne vaut Non «4 à ME PERD) SE. AN NET ee VAT D; Na Te. | + 0 bn Né dit À TRS Sr Fo ci) ÉPRAELE, RES Te ES MR 22e b DS HS, REX Se y TE pis gs Me EE [* NE RS af PT D Eh TX LAN DRE PE RENE TER hr PRE C RE RE ere HR Mile te pr NS Rte Le ln PE a RO SU er. ST TT Et OP FN Ë br D A Met 22 0 fe da en MS D PR C1 Zone d'étude Récif corallien M Zones urbaines BMM Océan Atlantique - 0-200m 201-400 m - 401-600 m — 601-840m —— Route principale —— Route secondaire Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 106] Figure A2 — NCD Hydric System: Superficial water ë ê N ÿ À "] | > | (a ar j RCE = es 45 NL 4 L + sh. RER “f rs RTE à ME AE 1: AN ae LA 2 AOC ; 8 N LE be, ME FAR EL D Cd à co A à Fi AN &. | LÉ ds & : 8 de 4 ps A7 SOA ft) 4 Ka RE NET D Se MEN es ä FES OR RAS, NRA TE SOU HORS LP, à Er CNET A al he DL ON CORRE RER d Arte N CUS C2 , Fa @ NN > Se ANR HAS Nr) Fa FAN te PAPA ONE NT NRC ET. NOR CC PRET x SP D ETES M NP QE NS. SSSR PCR OUI A Et ÇA Lu 3. PEN oe , A ed x < ses 2) PA es. es ST E sf DE TS de Æ bi LT Fe TR QÈe ve RONA TRS VE EU “ DAT RE ON re. D PP 7 SL (Ne CT RAS La RTS RSR IE DR A A NE CET EE RE Nes ee D CAL MAET AE l'O ue VUS TS Eee Re Te OR ANT at 0 AR ENST Vers RER 2 A AE C1 Zone d'étude _ Récif corallien MM Zones urbaines DM Océan Atlantique —— Rivière principale — Rivière secondaire Forêt riveraine EM Zone humide M L:2c-étang ®e Réservoirs Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 107] Figure A3 - NCD Hydric System: Watersheds 5 a ME : ERES A —, "| à L * ) PS = / à = Ac: Ï PLAN OP E D. PRES < jh < U LÉRE 4 —_#< 7 æ \ m | 1e na ù Mie + 74 bi à + A M = \ de 14 Fe on, Q a NA pe” ; 2 à À] NE A | ) BTE / \ ë LE... f , Pie y ” / À ; SU # 4 À J Sn { ; ù RTS \ 4 $ |. De Ÿ, & #2 LENS AE li: Vas _ E 1 Sy > Dame 4 ; A: En à, $ 7) LRO net C1 Zone d étude Bassin versant 6 BA Zones urbaines Bassin versant 7 —— Route principale Bassin versant 8 Route secondaire Bassin versant 9 —— Rivière principale Récif corallien — Rivière secondaire BEM Océan Atlantique Lun Bassin versant 0 Bassin versant 5 Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 108] Figure A4 — NCD Hydric System: Superficial and underground water LS + Se. Dee | a La à Fe L L (7 fi | ge 7 PS V9 ER” HN CIM | —J N7R À 3 4 #4] Le] - à Q: se + \ 1 FE. s ART RAS NTE 7; | et / L } he À = AE ONE EN Ni à C1 Zone d'étude Aquifère 1 Limite commune Récif corallien Section communale BEM Océan Atlantique MM Zones urbaines —— Rivière principale —— Rivière secondaire —— Route principale —— Route secondaire Map source: ERM (2014) from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 109] Figure A5 — NCD Strategic Ecosystems LA 1 L Ponge h MES we (] À a. PE de) LE Ne ER À TS CR ds “© w 5 À à “Pise FE ] ne B. #1] LA rs HT Fe: Z & F4 9 F4 6 À La ot = + Ep Zz Sr NC fé. AS ES) Ha Es € EE % El "DE le F A AS] AE : # 2 1e : = D Fr ñ > ., + VS | Rens CN Combi A El Fi ë LA est NES NU AN mn DR CN w 7 de 2° DRASS SR 72 ETS 0 Nous À ä A Fire AE k As $ il LP” F8 ER Æ À « = F “hors ir” SUR he) AK Y PE PRE P , à PS TN Hi. 0e & 7 PRE LAS os F4 ai Ar Re RE) * IR LP à SENS POI MEANS: nn Où t RSS CORRE fe ee f AT à ETS mr] » LS ES Ps 2m mn C1 Zone d'étude EM L'écosystème des régions montagneuses Parc des Trois Baies : = Lits fluviaux et alluvions récentes EM Zones urbaines —— Route principale M Espace boisé Route secondaire EM Lac - étang Récif corallien Manglier I Océan Atlantique Plages et dunes M Zone humide Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 110] Figure A6 - NDVI: Normalized difference vegetation index # h % } # L 4 + À f 6 MA, EX Th 7 f + y .- 23 S *# NPD me. j ) f ns LU a PONTE) ET — 15 Le D — ÿ PER ASRR | CLR 2% CAR PT À % RE — à D te : EXP 2 ef 7] D : ap, SE 8 pp ES LE ent , \ à 4 5 JS À . N À A * 4 fs L & ke RP RE FE Les 1 ee ù à = F> ; à° Pd \ # He ” # DR RE x De 27 CRE CP x 4 À #4 \5 "à / KR 5 Ÿ Fe M"? a KL” L d . ai" 4 "RE C4 À Res Aa OR, Alim lin, 25 5 0 À s2 Lo Em 0 % De VS ICS crc œil À C1 Zone d'étude —— Route secondaire Périmètre irrigué Récif corallien MM Zones urbaines EM Océan Atlantique n Terre aride Les terres dégradées La terre moins saine M La terre saine —— Route principale Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), FAO(c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 111] Figure A7 - Parc Marin des Trois Baies and Main Ecological Structure Foi N aus K ss.” . ; LEA à — D. fi DT PRET SC à SR Î DES ne | FL Ÿ PE Se é er ÉTAR N . 2 2) = 22 ps 2 Li wi LE F A AL TE a y & UE % 1 ES re En vd a) MONET Fe 7 LE 2 Ï SR F3 à S Le "> 0e À RE Lt AR © ad AP RNE A Ë pe = S 1 F PE US A) VOST © PS UE AV SEE & À SENTE € A. + A Le £ Nr Aa \ œ RS HET PTS Sa Ÿ J rs URSS C1 Zone d'étude Forêt riveraine Océan Atlantique FR Parc des Trois Baies —— Rivière principale P BA Zones urbaines —— Rivière secondaire ESS M Espace boisé —+ Route principale J Re EM Lac - étang Route secondaire D 0” Manglier Récif corallien ê À _ Fes nn. Plages et dunes EM l'écosystème des régions montagneuses y } 2 SR 3 Zone humide … Lits fluviaux et alluvions récentes : Si Legend: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 112] Figure A8 — Agrological Quality of Soils Classification AT... f \ À Se è Je p L £. 2 v:: à. g 4 É LS |. 47 a D Z - ? & H ré | # i À a 1 m , Ê | 5 2 .. de à à L 1 Ë “u œ ç EX D'EE à. Le \ à A1 à f En è Did * y J 20 ES 10 À C1 Study area (Il II Océan [STUDY AREAl POTENTIALSON 7 mi | {21 Limite commune IV “ Lam Section communale V LE ee _— Route principale En VI 5 Route secondaire DM VII Ov US EM Eau Vi - 5e n e 17: [ D Urbain [sas | is es Il Recif corallien Cas3s1 TT 45301 ] 16% Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 113] APPENDIX 2: Individual GIS Maps for Urban and Infrastructure Development c<# SIDB À NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI Appendix latin ERM [page 114] Figure B1 — Mining Concessions & 2. 7 CR PA: + L Y go f k ï 3 L& É Pme se : n ( ù Va 3 “ 2 1 AD + va 4 : ï _ A ë LE 4 F, F =. Fz # te + A ’ NES ST AT NON 2 Re Ne a QE APS PM T (EPS TEL ELA ; ot 25 1. C1 Zone d'étude EM Ccésn Atlantique Section communale MM Zones vrosinss — Routes principale —— Route secondaire + Concessions minières Récif corallien [page 115] Figure B2 - Road Network Hierarchy ë | 4 Ft ] LP = |! à ; UN Cl à PL UT TX] “ ) Ÿ \ ù ? K à ST à Les. [TK E_IStudy area © Port mm tr À Limite commune m Pont — Route principale mm Océan _—— Route secondaire -—— Route tertiaire _—— Routes urbaines e Aéroport Map source: Variables built from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 116] Figure B3 — Solid Waste and Waste Water System LIMONADE - , ps CARACOL Fée RER un , é: AL” LEE * " , Fe TROU DU NORD * TERRIER ROUGE p" à r L : \ Le k pri d L] . . ; N 0 04 08 18 mm: À Section communale EM Zones urbaines e Systéme de traitement d'eau en projet * Centre de traitement des déchets + Evacuation des eaux usées EM Océan Atlantique Map source: Variables built from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), [page 117] Figure B4 - Water Supply System ET CARACOL | | il LA S rs / } [ e TROU DU NORD * "4 TERRIER ROUGE Sr à A S L2 \ 1 a À [2 : . L2 \ \ - * \ S “ | 0 25 ds ' ‘ | = mm: À CE] Study area —_ Tubages !_! Limite commune DS Océan Section communale Em Zones urbaines e Station pompage ® Inventaire captage * Reservoirs * Puit Map source: Variables built from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 118] Figure B5 — Waste Water System F: ADE CARACOL | de” 4 4 » LJ TROU DU NORD X / TERRIER ROUGE nn." = «, \ D —<— 1 \ à # ll LL . \ du ) ” 024 4 ' n : l = mm: À C1 Study area :….: Limite commune Section communale MM Zones urbaines * Waste/Storm water drainage n Waste water treatment plant — Tubages I Océan Map source: Variables built from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 119] Figure B6 - Health Facilities System l: 2 À —… je, . = 27. SAN . L : y + Pa Nr — Fe PA Le * 1 * +) { Le . à > « ï i | D ) 7", en ». # À f D: ” f L' hs # L à à = f . 4 < Pi $ Fr r. / { 7 à ? . Ce , F a FARRE PrS en NO & 1% ER \ Æ: \ [OT 5 Le vlan . k ÿ. % | 8 Î LA 7e. . lé » NME RFA PA d L 1 Len + ( - : Las Pr S ,- . è x 1 4 "C2 ' ï ] - e 4 Es RE rs > RS ET e (ENST “21 ee 0 25 5% CE C1 Study area EM Océan Atlantique :__7: Limite commune Section communale EM Zones urbaines + Hôpitaux de premier niveau * Hôpitaux intermédiaires + Poste de santé Recif corallien Map source: Variables built from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 120] Figure B7 - Health Facilities System, urban core mosaic DE CARACOL : . | é” . . TROU DU NORD * TERRIER ROUGE . L | y : p o et cs ' - mm: À C1 Study area :.! Limite commune Section communale Em Zones urbaines + Clinic * Hospital * Installations Poste de santé EM Océan Map source: Variables built from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 121] Figure B8 -— Education Facilities System + PL 9 F> " _— 4 % “ . ee * f Re | . 2. \ H ” " +» / % 4 . 4 ri N RE | # ( LS AD Î % i $ # = -SOME LS LR | 4 F7 PEAU NT Le ER , \ | # k END, € ( ! à g 3 D VAN . û à (l de 0 vw : F M . % { } 1 à ER Ÿ À # l x Ne. LI € + “4 , - se F4 ?’ de fe. à PI (2 Û » ” K J 0 25 5 10 = w3 Er CS pa : . 1 21 Study area EM Océan Atlantique !___1 Limite commune Section communale M Zones urbaines + Primary * School * College Recif corallien Map source: ERM (2014). Results from the restrictions sub-model. Variables built from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 122] Figure B9 — Education Facilities System, urban core mosaic LIMONADE CARACOL L1 = . LA LL] Ld . Li LA L - Li deg TROU DU NORD É TERRIER ROUGE . . LA - œ LZ ë . * . u 25 08 : g mm: À C1 Study area I Océan Atlantique …. Limite commune Section communale MM Zones urbaines * Primary * School * College Mn Université Map source: Variables built from geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 123] Figure B10 - Economic development projects that have been identified in the North and Northeast region of Haiti Eee ee vs À à 227. |. . H à 4 1 1: MES AN] . HIT , MCE" EE, x G Lu 5 a QU - Z TE i ETES : . UE À É TE | = Ted fa \ #” © dy Emi FAN AE ARC À Fu “AN Mi à JA 'E 3 [] si ‘SN Se paul NOEL 12/5. La [4 LUS x Ms 5 E a À m ri £ À + CR ANSE pl, «| dre SE TASSE A) 4 à à PE 1e ES B --: “an | PES Te Le L+ 0 re RL ès ) FA: & 4: è ne > Ra SN EUR 2 AO SE Je SAR VONT | M LA EE) s KR A TETE A Mes Ne ES 27 PS CRT Se, POUR -: CORRE NO eu 7 CE UE : ve Er Se 7} d'R | M VUE TN PE pe CQUE TR ee ' p d + 5 7: Le > . Æ. à le RATE à ( we, En Adi SD APE ET à] ER 4 NT à ADR NE ti » ÿ on" : L, CE Mie TUE 2 -CURREX ne 12 C1 Study area ® installations industrielles _ Recif corallien !: Limite commune ® Services de police ER Océan Atlantique Section communale e Marchés M Zone urbaines ” Hôtels M Parc Industriel e Établissements de santé EM Ekam ® Stations-service à combustible EM Lhiversité — Route principale ® Points financière du service — Route secondaire Note: It is important to note, however, that this criterion does not mean that beyond the municipality of Terrier Rouge, into Fort Liberté and Ouanaminthe, there is no economic activity of significance, especially along RN6. What it means is that it is likely that land and settlement changes which may occur, will likely respond to economic factors other than those associated with the development of the Caracol Industrial Park, thus falling outside the realm of this study [page 124] APPENDIX 3: Climate Studies by the University of West Indies c<# SIDB À NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI Appendix latin ERM [page 125] Projected Changes in 5 Atmospheric Variables for selected grid boxes over Haiti from the PRECIS RCM Prepared by Climate Studies Group, Mona The University of the West Indies February 2014 [page 126] 1. About the Model PRECIS was developed by the Hadley centre (UK) in order to help generate high-resolution climate change information for as many regions of the world as possible. PRECIS is made freely available to groups of developing countries in order that they may develop climate change scenarios at national centres of excellence, simultaneously building capacity and drawing on local climatological expertise. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/precis/intro. PRECIS is a hydrostatic primitive equations grid point model. It contains 19 levels in the vertical and has horizontal resolutions of 0.44°x0.44° (50 km) and 0.22°x0.22° (*25 km). Initial and lateral boundary forcing are taken from reanalysis or from outputs of General circulation Models (GCM5s). The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice fractions surface boundary conditions are from a combination of monthly HadiSST1 dataset and weekly NCEP observed datasets. Observed values of greenhouse gases are also fed into the model. PRECIS utilises a relaxation technique across a four point buffer zone at each vertical level. Dynamical flow, the atmospheric sulphur cycle, clouds and precipitation, radiative processes, the land surface and the deep soil are also described in the model. A full description of the model’s physics is found in Jones et al. (2004). Validation of the PRECIS Model for the Caribbean is offered in a number of papers including Campbell et al. (2011) and Taylor et al. (2013). Campbell et al. (2011) ‘compared PRECIS’s modeled patterns of temperature and precipitation with reanalysis datasets and available observations. They showed the mean Caribbean climatologies to be generally captured by the model, with the relative timing of temperature and precipitation maxima and minima being reproduced. This included the model's reproduction of the Caribbean midsummer rainfall minimum, which is a significant feature of many of the larger Caribbean islands. There was, however, also a general underestimation of rainfall amounts across the main Caribbean basin during the wet season and a simulation using temperatures that were too warm over the Caribbean islands but too cold over Central America and northern South America’ (Taylor et al. 2013). 2 [page 127] 2. About the Perturbed Physics Experiments (PPESs) The first set of results presented are from the perturbed physics ensembles (PPE). PPEs are designed by varying uncertain parameters in the model’s representation of important physical and dynamical processes. PPEs are used to capture some major sources of modelling uncertainty by running each member using identical climate forcings. It provides an alternative to using GCMs developed at different modelling centres around the world (e.g. a multi-model ensemble, MME), like those in the CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3). The Hadley Centre’s PPE includes 17 members which are formulated to systematically sample parameter uncertainties under the A1B emissions scenario — this is referred to as the QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projections) ensemble. The QUMP ensemble was designed for use in the UK’s own climate projections and is described in detail in the UKCP report available online at http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/944/500/. Globally, and for many regions and variables, the range of climate futures projected by the QUMP PPE is equivalent or greater than those based on the CMIP3 MME. The PPE systematically samples the parameter uncertainties, exploring a wider range of possible variation in the formulation of a single model, leading to a wider range of physically plausible future climate outcomes than the MME. It is important to remember that PPE (similarly for MME) does not account for all of the sources of model uncertainty. ! The following 6 QUMP experiments were evaluated: Q0, Q3, Q4, Q10, Q11, and Q14. AÏl were run at 25 km and from 1960 through 2100. For each experiment the deviation of a future decade e.g. 20205, 20305, 2040s from the experiments baseline (1960-1990) were determined. This gave an ensemble of 6 future changes for each decade. The ensemble results are summarised and presented in Tables below for the 2040s (as requested). 2.1. Grid Boxes The model grid boxes over Haïti are as shown in Figure 1 below. Projections for grid boxes 46, 47, 53, 54, 60 and 61 are provided as requested. !Portions of the narrative are adapted from narrative on the PRECIS webpage http:/www.metoffice.gov.uk/precis/qump 3 [page 128] T Ï _ng<2s-827 T TT E | | | | 15/20 26 33 40 46 s360 2734 41,47 5461 | | | |_| 45 42 48 55 63 21-28 36 43 49 56 64 14791 | 22 2037 2e 50 5765 2 5 98 12 1923-30 28 44 51 5ÿ “> : 69 1344724 31 39 45 5259 66 10 a 10 e7 D CA D Co 2 mo CL on UE MA Figure 1: PRECIS 25 km model grid boxes over Haiti. Table 1: Coordinates for each grid box. Grid Box # Longitude Latitude 61 71.75 W 19.5 N 60 71.75 W 19.75 N 54 72W 19.5 N 53 72 19.75 N 47 72.25 W 19.5 N 46 72.25 W 19.75 N 2.2. About the Data Future change data are provided for five variables. For four of the five variables the data are provided as absolute change. These variables are: minimum temperature (°C), maximum temperature (°C), mean temperature (°C) and 10 m wind speed (m/s). Percentage change is provided for precipitation. Data is averaged for over three month seasons: November-January (NDJ), February-April (FMA), May- July (MJJ) and August-October (ASO), roughly consistent with the Caribbean dry season and wet season (Taylor et al. 2002). The mean annual change is also given. The change for each variable and for each period is calculated for the 20405 for each member of the ensemble. The minimum, maximum and mean values of the 6 member ensemble are provided. 4 [page 129] 2.2.1. Data by Variable Table 2: Projected absolute change in minimum temperature (°C) for the 2040s relative to the 1960- 1990 baseline. Data presented for minimum, maximum and mean value of a six member ensemble. Values are for 25 km grid boxes shown in Figure 1. Change in Minimum Temperature (°C) GRID BOX 61] 60] 54) 53] a7| 46 5 [page 130] Table 3: Projected absolute change in maximum temperature (°C) for the 20405 relative to the 1960- 1990 baseline. Data presented for minimum, maximum and mean value of a six member ensemble. Values are for 25 km grid boxes shown in Figure 1. Change in Maximum Temperature (°C) GRID BOX 61) 60] 54] 53| 47] «6 6 [page 131] Table 4: Projected absolute change in mean temperature (°C) for the 20405 relative to the 1960-1990 baseline. Data presented for minimum, maximum and mean value of a six member ensemble. Values are for 25 km grid boxes shown in Figure 1. Change in Mean Temperature (°C) GRID BOX 61) 60! sa] 53] a7| 7 [page 132] Table 5: Projected absolute change in 10 m wind speed (m/s) for the 20405 relative to the 1960-1990 baseline. Data presented for minimum, maximum and mean value of a six member ensemble. Values are for 25 km grid boxes shown in Figure 1. Change in Wind Speed at 10m (m/s) GRID BOX 61] 60! sa] 53] a7| 46 8 [page 133] Table 6: Projected percentage change in precipitation (%) for the 2040s relative to the 1960-1990 baseline. Data presented for minimum, maximum and mean value of a six member ensemble. Values are for 25 km grid boxes shown in Figure 1. Change in Precipitation (%) GRID BOX 61] 60] sa) 531 a7| 4 [MIN | 19.14 -28.09 -19.12 -34.16 -20.88 -25.72 MEAN 11.33 MIN | 22.51 -32.84 -24.98 -32.40 -23.32 -31.88 MEAN [MIN | 1144 -23.03 -14.42 -30.62 -14.55 -50.38 MEAN | 475) -996| -5.59) 647) 443) 10.14 [MIN | 13.98 -25.56 -17.63 -29.04 -14.20 -41.20 MEAN -11.03| -1196| 1189) -11.82 -15.72 [MIN | -13.08 -22.99 -16.23 -20.70 -12.89 -25.48 MEAN 9 [page 134] 2.2.2. Data by Grid Box Tables 7-12: Mean projected absolute change in minimum, maximum, and mean temperature and 10 m wind speed and mean projected percentage change in precipitation for the 20405 relative to the 1960-1990 baseline for each 25 km grid box. Data presented for mean value of the six member ensemble. Grid boxes are as shown in Figure 1. Table 7: Grid Box 61 Variable _| Mean Temp _| Min | MexT | wind | precip | ND | 169 179| 162| -003| 301 _FMA | sal 181] 151/ 001) 403 M] 165) 200] 190] 008| 475 _AS0 | 18] 104| 184] 049 | -1.03 _ Annual | 160] 188] 172! o06| -360| Table 8: Grid Box 60 | Variable | Mean T | Mint | MaxT | Wind | Precip | RS ER EE 7 [nn | 148 179) 255) -004| -860 [_rma | 139] 181] 14) oo! 998 [mu | 125] 294] 172) 01! -956 [aso | 160] 192] 162| o27| -1196 [Annual | 143] 187] 159) o10! -543| 10 [page 135] [Variable | Mean | Min | maxr | Wind | Precip | [__ L < ‘ %| ml *] Lu |_rma | | mu | | aso | |_ Annual | [vansbie [Mean T_ | Mint | Max [Wind |Precir 5e | nu | | ra | | mu | | aso | | annual [bn 138/h 167148 /007| 423) 11 [page 136] [vriable | Mean r | min | ex | wina | precip | ___— _w | __rwa | BTE | aso |_ annual | Durable can | Min 7 [Maur | Wind | rece 5e | ni | |_rma | |__| |_nso | |_ annual | 12 [page 137] 3. About the SRES Experiments The results presented in this section come from experiments in which the PRECIS model was forced by the ECHAMA4 Global Climate Model at its lateral boundaries. In these experiments the model was run from 1960-2100 and a baseline of 1960-1990 used to determine change for future years. The model was run at 50 km resolution and for one run each of the A2 and B2 scenarios described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Nakiéenovié et al. 2000). 3.1. Grid Boxes and Data Data is presented for one 50 km grid box centered on 72W and 19.5 N. The pattern follows that of the previous Tables. Data are only presented for the 2040s. CPE RTE TT) CL RRER EEE RER FRS C IRIS PIE Figure 2: PRECIS 50 km model grid boxes over Haiti. Box with X denotes grid box used. 3.2. Data Table 13: Projected absolute change in mean, maximum and minimum temperature (°C) for the 2040s relative to the 1960-1990 baseline. Data presented for A2 and B2 scenarios (one run each). Values are for a 50 km grid box centered on 72W and 19.5 N. D A S | | 4 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2 NDJ 2.0 1.7 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.3 FMA 2.0 1.6 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.5 MI) 2.2 1.9 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.8 ASO 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.3 Annual 2.1 1.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 13 [page 138] Table 14: Projected percentage change in precipitation (%) and absolute change in 10 m wind speed (m/s) for the 20405 relative to the 1960-1990 baseline. Data presented for A2 and B2 scenarios (one run each). Values are for a 50 km grid box centered on 72W and 19.5 N. [ Precipitation (%) Wind Speed (m/s) | A2 B2 A2 B2 NDJ 37.6 58.9 -0.11 -0.25 FMA -1.3 15.0 -0.08 0.24 MJJ -13.4 -5.6 0.17 0.18 ASO 0.8 -13.4 0.09 0.17 Annual 5.9 13.7 0.02 0.08 4. References Campbell, J. D., M. A. Taylor, T. S. Stephenson, R. A. Watson, and F. S. Whyte, 2011: Future climate of the Caribbean from a regional climate model. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1866-1878, doi:10.1002/joc.2200 Jones, R. G., M. Noguer, D. Hassell, D. Hudson, S. Wilson, G. Jenkins, and J. Mitchell, 2003: Workbook on generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS. UNDP, GEF, and Met Office Hadley Centre Manual, 32 pp. Nakiéenovié, N., and R. Swart, Eds., 2000: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, 599 pp Taylor, M. À. D. B. Enfield, and A. A. Chen, 2002: The Influence of the tropical Atlantic vs. the tropical Pacific on Caribbean Rainfall. J. Geophys. Res., 107(C9) 3127, doi:10.1029/20011C001097 Taylor, M. A., and Coauthors, 2007: Glimpses of the future: A briefing from the PRECIS Caribbean Climate Change Project. Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, 24 pp. Taylor, M. A., A. Centella, J. Charlery, A. Benzanilla, J. Campbell, |. Borrajero, T. Stephenson, and R. Nurmohamed, 2013: The PRECIS-Caribbean Story: Lessons and Legacies. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00235. 14 [page 139] Evaluation of trends in sea levels and tropical storm intensities Prepared by Climate Studies Group, Mona The University of the West Indies February 2014 [page 140] ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The following authors contributed to the compilation of this report: Tannecia S. Stephenson Jhordanne Jones Michael A. Taylor i [page 141] ABOUT THIS DOCUMENT This report presents an assessment of current literature on current and projected trends in sea level rise and storm intensities with particularly emphasis (where possible) on future values for the Caribbean region. Specifically the document reviews: 1. Current and projected trends of mean and extreme sea levels globally and regionally. 2. Current and projected trends in storm intensities as characterized by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) ii [page 142] Table of Contents About this document ii List of Figures iv List of Tables vi At a Glance vii 1. Background 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 SRES and RCP Scenarios 2 2. Sea level rise 5 2.1 Introduction 5 2.2 Causes 5 2.3 Current Trends 6 2.3.1 Global 6 2.3.2 Caribbean 6 2.4 Projected Trends 7 2.4.1 Global and Caribbean 7 2.5 Observations and projections of sea level extremes 11 2.5.1 Observations of sea level extremes 11 2.5.2 Projections of sea level extremes 12 2.6 Uncertainties 16 3. Tropical cyclones 17 3.1 Hurricane Metrics 17 3.1.1 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 17 3.1.2 Power Dissipation Index (PDI) 18 3.2 Current Trends in North Atlantic Intensities 20 3.3 Projected Trends in North Atlantic Intensities 20 4. Some References 23 ji [page 143] List of Figures Figure 1.1 Schematic illustration of the four SRES storylines 3 Figure 1.2 Radiative Forcing of the Representative Concentration Pathways. Taken from van Vuuren et al (2011). The light grey area captures 98% of the range in previous IAM scenarios, and dark grey represents 90% of the range. 4 Figure 2.1 Projections of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century relative to 1986-2005 from the combination of the CMIPS ensemble with process-based models, for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The assessed likely range is shown as a shaded band. The assessed /ikely ranges for the mean over the period 2081-2100 for all RCP scenarios are given as coloured vertical bars, with the corresponding median value given as a horizontal line. 9 Figure 2.2 (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric sea level changes for the period 2081-2100 relative to the reference period 1986-2005, computed from 21 CMIP5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 + 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m). Source: IPCC ARS. 9 Figure 2.3 Projected relative sea level change (in m) from the combined global steric plus dynamic topography and glacier contributions for the RCP4.5 scenario over the period from 1986-2005 to 2081-2100 for each individual climate model used in the production of Figure 2.2 Source: IPCC ARS. 10 Figure 2.4 Estimated trends (cm per decade) in the height of a 50-year event in extreme sea level from (a) total elevation and (b) total elevation after removal of annual medians. Black dots indicate trends are not significant at the 95% confidence level. Data are from Menéndez and Woodworth (2010). 14 Figure 3.1 Showing the total ACE value per year as a percentage of the 1981-2010 median for the period 1950-2012. Years falling above 120% are considered to be above-normal, years falling in between 71 - 120% are considered to be normal activity, while years falling below an 71% are considered to have below-normal activity. Years exceeding 165% is deemed to be very active. 18 Figure 3.2 Projected changes in tropical cyclone statistics. All values represent expected change in the average over period 2081-2100 relative to 2000-2019, under an A1B-like scenario, based on expert judgement after subjective normalisation of the model projections. Four metrics were considered: the percent change in 1) the total annual frequency of tropical storms, Il) the annual frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms, III) the mean Lifetime Maximum Intensity (LMI; the maximum intensity achieved during a storm's lifetime), and IV) the precipitation rate Within 200km of storm center at the time of LMI. For each metric plotted, the solid blue line is the best guess of the expected percent change, and the coloured bar provides the 67% (likely) confidence interval for this value (note that this interval ranges across -100% to +200% for the annual frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms in the North Atlantic). Where a metric is not plotted, there is insufficient data (denoted "X") available to complete an assessment. A randomly drawn (and coloured) selection of historical storm tracks are underlaid to identify regions of tropical cyclone activity. Source: IPCC ARS. 22 iv [page 144] List of Tables Table 1.1 Summary of SRES Storylines. 3 Table 1.2 Descriptions of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Scenarios. 4 Table 2.1 Rates and absolute change in mean sea level pressure. Rates are obtained from IPCC (2013). 6 Table 2.2 Observed rates of sea level rise for some Caribbean stations. Source: The State of the Jamaican Climate (2013). 7 Table 2.3 Projected increases in global mean surface temperature and global and Caribbean mean sea level from the IPCC (2007) contrasted with those of Rahmstorf (2007). Projections are by 2100 relative to 1980-1999. Source: CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas — Jamaica (2011). 8 Table 2.4 Projected increases in global mean surface temperature and global mean sea level. Projections are taken from IPCC (2013) and are relative to 1986-2005. 8 Table 2.5 Major storms affecting the east coast of the United Sates from 1970-2005. Adapted from Irish et al. (2008) 11 Table 2.6 Summary of studies examining projections of sea level extremes. Compiled from IPCC (2013). 13 Table 2.7 Storm surge heights under different sea surface temperature and sea level rise scenarios. (Wind speed of 225 km h? corresponds to that of the April 1991 cyclone impacting Bangladesh.) Taken from Ali (1996). 15 Table 2.8 Storm surge under different sea level rise and sea surface temperature rise conditions. (Scenario | represents base condition that corresponds to wind speed and central pressure as observed during the 1991 cyclone) Derived from Emanuel (2005) and Ali (2000). 15 v [page 145] At A Glance Future Projections for 3 key variables are shown below: A. Mean sea Level Table A1 Historical rates and absolute change in global mean sea levels. Rates are obtained from IPCC (2013). [Referenced as Table 2.1 in text] Rate (mm yr!) Total sea level rise IPCC Likelihood 1901 — 2010 1.7 +0.2 0.19 + 0.02 Very likely 1971 — 2010 2.0 + 0.2 [= | Verylikely 1993 - 2010 3.2+0.4 [= | Verylikely Table A2 Projected increases in global mean surface temperature and global and Caribbean mean sea level from the IPCC (2007) contrasted with those of Rahmstorf (2007). Projections are by 2100 relative to 1980-1999. Source: CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas — Jamaica (2011). [Referenced as Table 2.3 in text.] Scenario Global mean surface | Global mean sea level | Caribbean mean sea temperature (°C) rise (m) level rise (+0.05 m) relative to global mean IPCC B1 1.1-2.9 0.18 — 0.38 0.14 — 0.43 IPCC A1B 17-44 0.21 —- 0.48 0.16 —0.53 IPCC A2 2.0-5.4 0.23 -0.51 0.18 —- 0.56 Rahmstorf, 2007 [= | Uptol4m Upto1.4m Table A2 Projected increases in global mean surface temperature and global mean sea level. Projections are taken from IPCC (2013) and are relative to 1986-2005. [Referenced as Table 2.4 in text.] D Lames | [ami-20 | | | Variable "| Scenario | Mean | Likelyrange | Mean | Likely range Global Mean | RCP2.6 0.4-1.6 0.3-1.7 Surface RCP4.5 0.9 2.0 1.1-2.6 Temperature | RCPG0 08-18 14-31 Changel"c) RCPBS 14-26 26-48 Lelyrange Lily range Global Mean Sea | RCP2.6 0.17-0.32 |0.40 |0.26-0.55 Level Rise (m) RCP4.5 0.19 — 0.33 0.32 — 0.63 RCPSO [025 018-032 [045 [033-063 CPAS [030 [022-038 |063 [045-022 vi [page 146] B. Tropical cyclones Projections relating to intensities suggest the following: e__ Simulations with high resolution dynamical models and statistical-dynamical models consistently find that greenhouse warming causes tropical cyclone intensity to shift towards stronger storms by the end of the 21° century (2 to 11% increase in mean maximum wind globally). ° _Applying 21* century sea surface temperature projections to statistical relationships between local or relative SST and tropical cyclone power dissipation, suggests power dissipation increasing by about 300% in the next century for one relationship but suggesting no change in the other relationship. Both relationships can be reasonably defended based on physical arguments but it is not clear which, if either is current. ° When simulating 21* century warming under A1B, the present models and downscaling techniques suggest increases in intensity and fraction increases in the number of most intense storms. Of concern however is the limited ability of global models to accurately simulate upper- tropospheric wind which modulates vertical wind shear and tropical cyclone genesis and intensity evolution. vii [page 147] 1. BACKGROUND 1.1 Introduction The Caribbean region has been characterized as among the most vulnerable to climate change and climate extremes. This is in the context of limited natural and human resources, restricted lands, densely populated urban and coastal areas, economic dependence on international funders, and heavy reliance on fragile sectors such as tourism. In response, small island states are compelled to undertake assessments towards characterizing present and future climate trends, evaluating possible impacts and proposing possible adaptation and mitigation strategies. One of the major challenges facing island states is that posed by tropical cyclone events and sea level rise. Sea-level rise greatly impacts human activity near the coastal zone (IPCC, 2007) since in many cases the majority of human settlements, economic activity, infrastructure and services are located at or near the coast and local economies are often reliant on just a few sectors such as tourism and agriculture (Nicholls, 1998). Sea level rise therefore exacerbates the vulnerability of coastal regions to other physical processes (e.g. storm surges, storm waves). Another direct influence of sea-level rise is the inundating of low level coastal areas which is of concern. It is anticipated however that ocean waves and storm surges of the future will exhibit changes in characteristics from the present climate and are the dynamic side issue of climate change. It is necessary to seriously consider the impacts of these dynamic phenomena for coastal disaster prevention and reduction, if extreme weather events will become stronger than those in the present climate (Mori et al., 2010). This review examines the current state of knowledge of trends in (i) sea level rise, and (ii) tropical cyclone intensities. The report concentrates on these factors since the relative sea level and its rise over time influences the extent to which the surge and wave heights generated by hurricanes impact coastal areas. In the past relative sea level rise was included in coastal protection design by raising design water levels an amount equivalent to the relative sea level rise. But surge generation and propagation are nonlinear processes and linear addition of relative sea level rise to design water levels underestimates the impact in many areas. In addition to the surge elevation, wave heights also increase with water level in coastal areas where wave height is limited by water depth. 1 [page 148] 12 SRES and RCP Scenarios Long term projections discussed in this report are premised on assumptions made with respect to human activities or natural effects that could alter the climate over decades and centuries. Future anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), aerosol particles and other forcing agents such as land use change are dependent on socio-economic factors, and may be affected by global geopolitical agreements to control those emissions to achieve mitigation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) made extensive use of the SRES scenarios that do not include additional climate initiatives, which means that no scenarios were included that explicitly assume implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the emissions targets of the Kyoto Protocol. However, GHG emissions are directly affected by non- climate change policies designed for a wide range of other purposes. The SRES scenarios were developed using a sequential approach, i.e., socio-economic factors fed into emissions scenarios, which were then used in simple climate models to determine concentrations of greenhouse gases, and other agents required to drive the more complex atmosphere-ocean global climate models. The SRES scenarios were labelled A1, A2, B1 and B2, describing the relationships between the forces driving greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and their evolution during the 21st century for large world regions and globally. Each storyline represents different demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments that diverge in increasingly irreversible ways (Nakicenovic et al. 2000). See Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1. In the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (ARS), outcomes of climate simulations that use new scenarios (some of which include implied policy actions to achieve mitigation) referred to as “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs) are assessed. These RCPSs represent a larger set of mitigation scenarios and were selected to have different targets in terms of radiative forcing at 2100 (about 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 Wm”*). They are defined by their total radiative forcing (cumulative measure of human emissions of greenhouse gases from all sources expressed in Watts per square metre) pathway and level by 2100. The scenarios should be considered plausible and illustrative, and do not have probabilities attached to them. The SRES scenarios resulted from specific socio-economic scenarios from storylines about future demographic and economic development, regionalization, energy production and use, technology, agriculture, forestry and land use (IPCC, 2000). The RCPs are new scenarios that specify concentrations and corresponding emissions, but not directly based on socio-economic storylines like the SRES 2 [page 149] scenarios. The four RCP scenarios are identified by the 21* century peak or stabilization value of the RF derived from the reference model (in Wm?). Table 1.1 provides a summary of the RCPs. SRES Scenarios Economic À Global D Regional En tal ps Qu TE rech en E & 2, ,s | lving Fort Figure 1.1: Schematic illustration of the four SRES storylines Table 1.1 Summary of SRES Storylines. SRES scenario | Storylines family A1 A future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid- century and declines thereafter, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. A1FI (fossil intensive), AIT (predominantly non-fossil) and A1B (balanced across energy sources). A2 A very heterogeneous world with continuously increasing global population and regionally oriented economic growth that is more fragmented and slower than in other storylines B1 A convergent world with the same global population as in the A1 storyline but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. B2 A world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, with continuously increasing population (lower than A2) and intermediate economic development. 3 [page 150] 10- ———RCP6 —— RCP4,5 — RCP3PD/RCP2.6 — 84 ——RCP85 = 2 Z 6 DO = O 5 4 nu 2 É 2 TD d m 0 -2 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 Figure1.2: Radiative Forcing of the Representative Concentration Pathways. Taken from van Vuuren et al (2011). The light grey area captures 98% of the range in previous IAM scenarios, and dark grey represents 90% of the range. Table 1.2 Descriptions of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Scenarios. Radiative Forcing Behaviour RCP2.6 Peaks at 3 Wm”? and then declines to approximately 2.6 Wm ? RCP4.5 Stabilization at 4.5 Wm? RCP6 Medium-high Stabilization at 6 Wm? RCP8.5 REF of 8.5 Wm? by 2100 but implies rising RF beyond 2100 4 [page 151] 2. SEA LEVEL RISE 221 Introduction Global sea levels have risen through the 20th century. The rising levels are expected to accelerate through the 21st century and beyond because of global warming, but their magnitude remains uncertain. Key uncertainties include the possible role of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the amplitude of regional changes in sea level. In many areas, non-climatic components of relative sea level change (mainly subsidence) can also be locally appreciable. Cooper and Pilkey (2004) suggests that factors which cause changes in the morphology of coasts are numerous and include sediment supply, variations in wave energy, tidal currents, wind action, sediment type, tidal inlet dynamics, morphological feedback, etc. Therefore isolating the influence of sea-level rise from these other factors is perhaps the biggest challenge in discerning the impact of sea level rise. 2.2 Causes Two main factors contribute to SLR: (i) thermal expansion of sea water due to ocean warming and (ii) water mass input from land ice melt and land water reservoirs. Thermal expansion is the physical response of the water mass of the oceans to atmospheric warming. Ocean temperature data collected during the past few decades indicate that ocean thermal expansion has significantly increased during the second half of the 20th century. Thermal expansion accounts for about 25% of the observed SLR since 1960 (Domingues et al., 2008) and about 50% from 1993 to 2003 (for e.g. IPCC 2007, Nicholls and Cazenave 2010). Ice sheets have the largest potential effect, because their complete melting would result in a global sea-level rise of about 70 m. Yet their dynamics are poorly understood, and the key processes that control the response of ice flow to a warming climate are not included in current ice sheet models. The interplay of these factors and their action on different timescales makes understanding of global sea level rise dynamics very difficult. The mechanism of thermal expansion can be gauged relatively accurately through an analysis of global temperatures and their rate of increase through GCMs. However, there is a great uncertainty in predicting the melting rate of the ice sheets and ice caps. Analysis of observed data suggests that the decay rate of ice sheets is non-linear. Simpson et al (2009) further highlights that rapid collapses of ice sheets have occurred previously that bear no correlation, whether contemporaneous or lagged, to any climate forcing that may have triggered it. 5 [page 152] 2.3 Current Trends 2.3.1 Global Using proxy and instrumental data, it is virtually certain (i.e. with 99-100% probability) that the rate of global mean sea level rise has accelerated during the last two centuries, marking the transition from relatively low rates of change during late Holocene (order tenths of mm yr'!) to modern rates (order mm year). Rates and absolute changes in global mean sea level are shown in Table 2.1 Table 2.1 Rates and absolute change in mean sea level. Rates are obtained from IPCC (2013). RE PE LL RE PL Tide-guage and satellite altimeter data both reflect the rate represented in the 1993-2010 period. It is likely that rates similar to this period also occurred between 1930 and 1950. It is also likely that global mean sea level has accelerated since the early 19005, with estimates ranging from 0.000 to 0.013 [-0.002 to 0.019] mm yr? (IPCC, 2013). Accelerations in the rate of increase over the 20" century are have been detected in most regions. See for example Woodworth et al. (2009), and Church and White (2006) 2.3.2 Caribbean Estimates of observed sea level rise from 1950 to 2000 suggest that sea level rise within the Caribbean appears to be near the global mean. Table 2.2 shows the rates of sea level rise for a number of locations in the Caribbean. All values suggest an upward trend. It is important to note that due to shifting surface winds, expansion of warming ocean water and the addition of melting ice, ocean currents can be altered which, in turn leads to changes in sea level that vary from place to place. Additionally more localized processes such as sediment compaction and tectonics may also contribute to additional variations in sea level. 6 [page 153] Table 2.2 Observed rates of sea level rise for some Caribbean stations. Source: The State of the Jamaican Climate (2013). 2.4 Projected Trends 2.4.1 Global and Caribbean Estimates of future global mean sea level were obtained from observations and GCM results reported by IPCC Working Group1 for IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC 2007, IPCC 2013). According to the Fourth Assessment Report by the end of the century, sea levels are also expected to rise by 0.21m to 0.48m under an A1B (medium emissions) scenario or by 0.26-0.59 m under the highest emissions scenario, A1F1, but the models exclude future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow. One study suggests that the rate of rise may actually double as noted for A1B (Science Daily, Feb. 12, 2008). Higher projections of sea level rise are noted in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (ARS) in comparison to the Fourth Assessment Report (ARS). This is considered to be primarily due to the improved modeling of land-ice contributions. There is also higher confidence in the projections of sea level rise in the latter report due to improved understanding of the components of sea level, improved agreement of process-based models with observations, and the inclusion of ice-sheet dynamical changes. Projections and Graph are shown below. In the RCP projections, thermal expansion accounts for 30 to 55% of the 21* century global mean sea level rise, and glaciers for 15 to 35%. AR5 notes that the basis for higher projections of global mean sea level was considered but it was concluded that there is currently insufficient evidence to evaluate the probability of specific levels above the assess likely rate. Finally the point is made in ARS that sea level rise will not be uniform. It is very likely that sea level will rise in more than about 95% of the ocean area. Approximately 70% of the coastlines worldwide are projection to experience sea level change within 20% of the global mean sea level change. It is useful to note that for the SRES A1B which was assessed in AR4, the likely range bases on the science assessed in the ARS is 0.60 [0.41-0.79] m by 2100 relative to 1986-2005 and 0.57 [0.40- 7 [page 154] 0.75]m by 2090-2099 relative to 1990. Compared with the AR4 projection of 0.21-0.48 m for the same scenario and period, the largest increase is from the inclusion of rapid changes in Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet outflow. Table 2.3 Projected increases in global mean surface temperature and global and Caribbean mean sea level from the IPCC (2007) contrasted with those of Rahmstorf (2007). Projections are by 2100 relative to 1980-1999. Source: CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas — Jamaica (2011). Global mean surface | Global mean sea level | Caribbean mean sea temperature (°C) rise (m) level rise (+0.05 m) relative to global mean IPCC B1 1.1-2.9 0.18 — 0.38 0.14 — 0.43 IPCC A1B 17-44 0.21 —- 0.48 0.16 —0.53 IPCC A2 2.0-5.4 0.23-0.51 0.18 —- 0.56 Rahmstorf, 2007 Um Upto 14m Upto 14m Table 2.4 Projected increases in global mean surface temperature and global mean sea level. Projections are taken from IPCC (2013) and are relative to 1986-2005. [| 2046-2065] "| 2081-2100 | | Variable |Scenaro [Mean |Ukelyrenge [Mean | Ukelyrange Global Mean | RCP2.6 0.4-1.6 0.3-1.7 Surface RCP4.5 0.9-—2.0 1.1-2.6 Temperature RCPG.0 08-18 14-31 Changel*c) RCPE.S 14-26 26-48 Likely range Lielyrange Global Mean Sea | RCP2.6 0.17 — 0.32 [0.40 |0.26-0.55 Level Rise (m) RCP4.5 0.19 — 0.33 0.32 —0.63 RCPSO [O2 [018-032 [045 |033-063 RCPES [030 [022-038 [063 [045-027 8 [page 155] 1.0 Mean over 2081-2100 0.8 0.6 E 0.4 3 El £ & 02 $ £ * Ê 0.0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Figure 2.1 Projections of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century relative to 1986-2005 from the combination of the CMIPS ensemble with process-based models, for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The assessed likely range is shown as a shaded band. The assessed likely ranges for the mean over the period 2081-2100 for all RCP scenarios are given as coloured vertical bars, with the corresponding median value given as a horizontal line. a) 60°N 0.30 30°N 0.24 0.18 0° 0.12 o 30°S 0.06 60°S 0.00 90°E 180° 90°W 0° (m) b) éo°N FE F: * 0.30 30°N ra EE SR M 0.24 à TEEN 4 0.12 30°5\ Q , 4 ! S L « 4 0.06 60e. Pt M EE 90°E 180° 90°W 0° mie Figure 2.2 (a) Ensemble mean projection of the time-averaged dynamic and steric! sea level changes for the period 2081-2100 relative to the reference period 1986-2005, computed from 21 CMIPS5 climate models (in m), using the RCP4.5 experiment. The figure includes the globally averaged steric sea level increase of 0.18 + 0.05 m. (b) RMS spread (deviation) of the individual model result around the ensemble mean (m). Source: IPCC ARS. 1The term ‘steric’ pertains to the temperature, salinity and pressure dependent specific volume of the ocean. (Lauderer et al. 2006) 9 [page 156] ACCESS à 0 nn . RTE , Eh s& T4 . ur en. : CT ft mi 6 à OA Gen. Mara RE = Caves F2 Cd QrOL EMI HuIrn Had OEM; ES Hi 4 SE JU CES _ = ” + ta L - Qh 7 ; L'« 1 : ee > CM : MMECC -ÉSM-CHÉRA ÉTiTRLe MED! MPLE M LE Mi SM MR Mes CLCH Gt HT tif MI M ( _ . ? re 7 = + mé 2 |. à -0.1 00 O1 02 03 0,4 Figure 2.3: Projected relative sea level change (in m) from the combined global steric plus dynamic topography and glacier contributions for the RCP4.5 scenario over the period from 1986-2005 to 2081- 2100 for each individual climate model used in the production of Figure 2.2 Source: IPCC ARS. 10 [page 157] 2.5 Observations and Projections of Sea Level Extremes 2.5.1 Observations of sea level extremes Tsunamis aside, extremes in sea level (ï.e. coastal flooding, storm surge, high water events, etc.) tend to be caused by large storms, especially when they occur at times of high tide. In fact any low pressure system off shore with associated high winds can cause a coastal flooding event depending on duration and direction of winds. Table 2.5 highlights several examples of major storms impacting the US east coast and shows the peak pressure, storm size, continental slope and storm surge measurements. The table highlights that the maximum sustained wind (represented by the category of the storm) is not necessarily a good indication of storm surge values, though some correlation exists between the two. Table 2.5: Major storms affecting the east coast of the United Sates from 1970-2005. Adapted from Irish et al. (2008) Storm Date Central Radius to Saffir- Estimated Observed (Name) pressure maximum Simpson influencing open coast (mb) wind (km) Category continental shelf surge (m) slope August 1974 943 28 3 1:2,500 (Carmen) August 1979 950 3 1:1,500-1:1,900 3.5-3.8 (Frederic) August 1992 30 5 1:750-1:1,500 2.4 (Andrew) October 1995 3 1:750-1:1,000 3.1-3.7 (Opal) August 1999 (Bret) 1800-1110 | 09-15 September 2002 28 1 1:4,000-1:7,500 3.2-3.6 (Lili) September 2004 950 19 1:500-1:1,000 2.1 (Charley) September 2004 955 56 3 1:1,500-1:1,900 3.0-3.1 (Ivan) July 2005 Dennis) 175011,500 | 17-25 August 2005 919 47 3 1:5,000- 7.5-8.5 (Katrina) 1:10,000 11 [page 158] me | | Nr rer pe | (Rita) (Wilma) The AR4 noted that highest water levels have been increasing since the 19505 in most regions of the world, caused mainly by increasing mean sea level. Higher regional extremes are also associated with climate fluctuations such as ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, among others. Since the publication of AR4 most analyses have focused on specific regions and find that extreme values have increased since the 19505, using various statistical measures such as annual maximum surge, annual maximum surge-at-high-water, monthly mean high water level, changes in number of high storm surge events or changes in the 99° percentile events. Global analysis of tide gauge data that spans 1970s to the present, also suggests that the magnitude of extreme sea level events has increased in all regions studies. The height of a 50-year flood event has increased anywhere from 2 to more than 10 cm per decade since 1970 although some areas have seen a negative rate because of the vertical land motion is much larger than the rate of mean sea level rise. The height of a 50-year flood event has increased anywhere from 2 to more than 10 cm per decade since 1970 (Figure 2.4a), although some areas have seen a negative rate because vertical land motion is much larger than the rate of mean sea level rise. However, when the annual median height at each gauge is removed to reduce the effect of local mean sea level rise, interannual and decadal fluctuations, and vertical land motion, the rate of extreme sea level change drops in 49% of the gauges to below significance (Figure 2.4b), while at 45% it fell to less than 5 mm yr”. Only 6% of tide gauge records evaluated had a change in the amplitude of more than 5 mm yr ‘after removing mean sea level variations, mainly in the southeast United States, the western Pacific, southeast Asia, and a few locations in northern Europe. The higher rates in the southeastern United States have been linked to larger storm surge events unconnected to global sea level rise (Grinsted et al., 2012, IPCC, 2013). 2.5.2 Projections of Sea Level Extremes Lowe et al. 2010 suggest that increases in the observed sea level extremes in the 20° century and increases projected for the 21° century occur mainly through an increase in mean sea level. Projected changes in storm surges (relative to mean sea level) have been assessed by applying climate-model forcing to storm-surge models. Return periods of sea level extremes, exceeding a given 12 [page 159] threshold level, referred to as return levels, are used in quantifying projected changes. Table 2.6 summarizes the results of studies examining projections of sea level extremes. The results show that projections are sensitive to the choice of global climate model or regional climate model. Table 2.6 Summary of studies examining projections of sea level extremes. Compiled from IPCC (2013). [Too | Scemaño| Reut | Referne | Regionally A2, B2, 8-10% increase in the 99° percentile surge heights | Debernard and Roed downscaled A1B between 1961-90 and 2071-2100, mainly during | (2008) GCM the winter season along the coastlines of the eastern North Sea and the northwestern British Isles, and decreases south of Iceland. Downscaled A1B Significant increase in wintertime storm surges | Wang et al. (2008) GCM around most of Ireland between 1961-1990 and 2031-2060 3 climate A2 Changes in the 95th percentile sea level height | Colberg and Mcinnes models across the southern Australian coast in 2081-2100 | (2012) compared to 1981-2000 were small (+0.1 m), mostly negative, and despite some inter-model differences, resembled the changes in wind patterns simulated by the climate models Numerical For the tropical east coast of Australia, a 10% | e.g. Mcinnes et al. ocean model increase in tropical cyclone intensity for 2050 led to | (2013) increases in the 100-year return level (including tides) that at most locations were smaller than 0.1 m GCM Sea level rise has a greater potential than | Brown et al. (2010) meteorological changes to increase sea level | Woth et al. (2006) extremes by the end of the 21st century for | Lowe et al. (2009) southeastern coast of Australia, eastern Irish Sea, North Sea and the United Kingdom coast RCM A2 The combined effect of MSL rise of 4 mm/yr and | Unnikrishnan et al. RCM projections for winds and atmospheric | (2011) pressure gave an increase in 100-year return levels of total sea level (including tides) between 0.40- 0.67 m (about 15-20%) along the northern part of the east coast of India, except around the head of the bay for 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990. Numerical The effect of MSL rise on simulated surges was | Smith et al. (2010) surge and wave linear. Yet in the regions of moderate surges (2-3 models m), particularly in wetland-fronted areas, the increase in surges was larger by 1-3 m than the present values. They showed that sea level rise alters the speed of propagation of surges and their amplification in different regions of the coast. 13 [page 160] Statistical The dynamic interaction of surge and sea level rise | Mousavi et al. (2011) model lowered or amplified the surge at different points Within a shallow coastal bay for the Gulf of Mexico. Higher mean sea levels can significantly decrease the return period for exceeding given threshold levels. For a network of 198 tide gauges covering much of the globe, Hunter (2012) determined the factor by which the frequency of sea levels exceeding a given height would be increased for a MSL rise of 0.5 m. The calculations were repeated in the ARS using regional relative sea level projections and their uncertainty using the RCP4.5 scenario. This multiplication factor depends exponentially on the inverse of the Gumbel scale parameter (a factor which describes the statistics of sea level extremes caused by the combination of tides and storm surges) (Coles and Tawn, 1990). The scale parameter is generally large where tides and/or storm surges are large, leading to a small multiplication factor, and vice versa. (a) D M x men S < (b) CI ”" ee C3 _ er es à» SE 274 FF ss <coies… | NE - El 4 | ñ le = 12-10 8 6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 em per decade Figure 2.4: Estimated trends (cm per decade) in the height of a 50-year event in extreme sea level from (a) total elevation and (b) total elevation after removal of annual medians. Black dots indicate trends are not significant at the 95% confidence level. Data are from Menéndez and Woodworth (2010). 14 [page 161] Another useful study is that of Ali (1996). The study showed that storm surge heights increase with an increase in wind speed and SST (Table 2.7). On the other hand, sea level rise tends to reduce the surge heights if wind speed remains constant. It is to be noted here that the model had a fixed boundary and as a result could not simulate the surge height for a moving shoreline. Sea level rise will convert the hitherto land area into a part of the sea which will then become a shallow water area where the surge will be amplified. Thus, although the sea level rise will apparently reduce the surge height in the present sea water, it will increase the surge height in the newly converted (from land to sea) sea area. Table 2.7 Storm surge heights under different sea surface temperature and sea level rise scenarios. (Wind speed of 225 km h°? corresponds to that of the April 1991 cyclone impacting Bangladesh.) Taken from Ali (1996). Surge height in m (% change) Sea level rise = 0.0 m 7.6 (0) 9.2 (21) 11.3 (49) Sea level rise = 0.3 m 7.4 (-3) 9.1 (20) 11.1 (46) Sea level rise =1.0m 7.1 (-7) 8.6 (13) 10.6 (40) Table 2.8 Storm surge under different sea level rise and sea surface temperature rise conditions. (Scenario | represents base condition that corresponds to wind speed and central pressure as observed during the 1991 cyclone) Derived from Emanuel (2005) and Ali (2000). Climate Sea level rise SST rise (°C) Wind speed Central Surge height Scenarios (m) (km/h) pressure (hPa) | (m, mean sea level) | Scenario1 100 7 [0 | 225 926 |76 | [Scenaroll_ [00 [2 [26 9% [9 ScenariollL [00 [4 |24 92 [us _ ScenarolV [03 0 25 19% 74 DSœænañow [03 [4 2% jen us _ Scenario VIE 1.0 0 12% 1% 1 Scenario VI | 10 [2 24 [924 [56 | DSœænarñoix [no [a 2% jen [ws 15 [page 162] Karim and Mimura (2008) examined different scenarios of sea surface temperature and sea level rise increases and the impact they have on storm surge height (Table 2.8). Scenario | represents the base condition, while Scenario V is considered as an average climate condition by 2050. It shows that storm surge height may increase as much as 21% if SST rises by 2 °C (Scenario 11) and 49% if SST rises by 4 °C (Scenario Ill). Another analysis based on continental shelf length and wind speed (Chowdhury, 1994) also produced similar surge heights at the coast. These predictions are relatively large compared with the results of Mitchell et al. (2006) in which they predicted 0.5-0.7m increase in surge height of a 50-year return period storm surge. It is interesting to note that surge height reduces by 7% if sea level rise by 1.0m, but SST remains unchanged (Scenario VII). The reason is that the amplification of the surge is less if the water depth is increased, due to the differences in bottom friction on the propagating waves. 2.6 Uncertainties The range of uncertainty cones from a combination of emissions uncertainty and methodology uncertainty as follows: e Emissions uncertainty arises because the future is uncertain and there are a range of plausible futures (with respect to for example technologies and energy requirement). This is addressed by presenting results for a range of projections that attempt to cover the range of plausible futures. e Methodological uncertainty arises because of the inability to create perfect models of the climate system even if future emissions were known. Additionally some processes depend on parameters that have not yet been accurately measured or one may discover are entirely missing from the models. This uncertainty is addressed by either running simple models for a range of climate sensitivities or by looking at a range of values from the few available complex climate models. 16 [page 163] 3. Tropical Cyclones 3.1 Hurricane Metrics Several publications and reports outline the damage sustained by countries due to hurricanes during the annual North Atlantic hurricane season throughout history. It is not surprising then, the initiative shown by several institutions to characterize and, thus, predict the yearly trend. Institutions such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have led research into hurricane dynamics and have developed several important tools and datasets that are used today to characterize hurricane activity. This report highlights two metrics for intensity (accumulated cyclone energy [ACE], power dissipation index [PDI]). In addition to intensity, it should be noted that the structure and areal extent of the wind field in tropical cyclones is largely independent of intensity and play an important role on potential impacts, particularly from storm surge (Irish and Resio, 2010), but measures of storm size are largely absent in historical data 3.1.1 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) The ACE proposed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is defined as the sum of squares of the maximum sustained wind speed in knots (v..,) measured every six hours for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm strength (Bell et al. 2000). The ACE is calculated by the formula below and is of the order of 10“ kt2. (1) NOAA classifies a season as above-normal, normal or below-normal asillustrated in Figure.3.1: e _Above-normal: above 111x10° kt° (corresponding to 120% of the 1981-2010 median), 13 or more named storms, 4 or more hurricanes, 3 or more major hurricanes ° _Below-normal: below 66x10° kt° (corresponding to less than 71.4% of the 1981-2010 median), 9 or fewer named storms, 4 or fewer hurricanes, 1 or fewer major hurricanes. ° _Near-normal: ACE values lies in the range of 66x10° - 111x10° kt° (between 71.4%-120% of the 1981-2010 median), 10-15 named storms, 4-9 hurricanes, 1-4 major hurricanes. Klotzbach (2006) suggests that the ACE is proportional to the kinetic energy generated by the storm. 17 [page 164] 300 1981-2010 median = 98.06x10% k2 “| É 200 à | u] Q | 165 AIRIS 4 11 2 | 120 2 100 & HI URI LI [LA f ‘| 950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Figure 3.1 Showing the total ACE value per year as a percentage of the 1981-2010 median for the period 1950-2012. Years falling above 120% are considered to be above-normal, years falling in between 71 - 120% are considered to be normal activity, while years falling below an 71% are considered to have below-normal activity. Years exceeding 165% is deemed to be very active. 3.1.2 Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Emanuel (2005) introduced the power dissipation index (PDI), the cubed of the maximum sustained wind speed at the standard altitude of 10 m, integrated over the lifetime of the storm. Theory provides that a hurricane loses power at a rate per unit area of (2) where p is the air density, C is the surface drag coefficient and V is the surface wind speed (Emanuel, 1998). Assuming a circularly symmetric hurricane, the dissipative rate D is integrated over the radius (from the center to an outer limit ro) and over the lifetime t of the storm to give the total power dissipation PD, shown below. (3) The equation is further simplified due to unavailability of accurate records of hurricane radii and the variability of C, and p within the radius of maximum wind speeds. Another limitation is that there is very little relation between the peak winds and the size of the hurricane (Emanuel, 2005), and so may 18 [page 165] provide a less than accurate picture of the intensity of the storm. Taking the values for the drag coefficient and sea-level air density to be constant, the final equation arises as: (4) It is however important to note that both ACE and PDI are based on the assumption that velocity varies linearly with radius inside the radius of maximum winds. Yu et al (2009) point out that the radial wind structure within a tropical cyclone varies and that the formulae proposed for the two indices results in an overestimation of the total activity. For this reason, both indices were revised (Yu et al. 2009; Yu and Chiu, 2012). The revised ACE (RACE) and revised PDI (RPDI) indices are constructed based on a modified Rankine vortex structure proposed by Yu et al(2009). The algorithm outlining their construction is described in detail in Appendix A. The RACE index and RPDI index are defined by equations (5) and (6), respectively. TE (5) —- ——— (6) where is the cut-off radius (dimensionless) in which the wind energy is measured and is the decaying tendency of wind beyond the radius of maximum wind. Like the ACE and PDI indices, the revised versions are strongly influenced by strong tropical cyclones. This is due to the inclusion of the intensity and duration of the storms, and is thus a better indicator of the strength of the storms within a given season. Yu and Chiu (2009) concludes that the ACE, PDI, RACE and RPDI indices may not give a clear trend in frequency. These metrics have recently become a popular tool of characterizing overall hurricane activity. However, no publications as of yet outlines the use of the revised metrics in projections of future tropical cyclone activity. Additionally, Klotzbach (2006) notes that ACE and PDI correlate globally at 0.97. Therefore to examine the trend in either index at the global level should yield virtually the same results. 19 [page 166] 3.2 Current trends in North Atlantic Hurricane intensities Intensity measures in historical records are especially sensitive to changing technology and improving methodology. Over the satellite era however, increases in the intensity of the strongest storms in the Atlantic are quite robust (Kossin et al., 2007; Elsner et al. 2008). Time series of cyclone indices such as power dissipation show upward trends in the North Atlantic since the late 1970s (Emmanuel, 2007) but interpretation of longer-term trends is constrained by data quality concerns (Landsea et al., 2012). The ARS notes that evidence suggests a virtually certain increase in the frequency and intensity of the strongest cyclones in the Atlantic since the 1970s. Wu et al. (2008) suggest that the magnitude of the statistically significant linear trend in PDI over 1975-2004 is 0.024 m° s° year’. Itis further noted that the average lifetime of North Atlantic tropical cyclones show an increasing trend of 0.07 day year” for the same period which is statistically significant. The variability and trend in power dissipation can be related to sea surface temperature and other local factors such as tropopause temperature and vertical wind shear (Emanuel, 2007), but there is debate to whether local sea surface temperature or the difference between local sea surface temperature and mean tropical sea surface temperature is the more physically relevant metric (Swanson, 2008). The distinction becomes important when making projections of changes in power dissipation based on projections of SST changes particularly in the tropical Atlantic where SST has been increasing more rapidly than in the tropics as a whole (Vecchi et al., 2008). ACE has shown declines globally since reaching a high point in 2005, and is presently at a 40 year low point (Maue, 2009) (IPCC SREX 2012). 3.3 Projected trends in North Atlantic frequencies and intensities The AR4 concluded that a range of modeling studies project a likely increase in peak wind intensity and near storm precipitation in future tropical cyclones. Simulations with high resolution dynamical models (e.g. Oouchi et al., 2006; Bengtsson et al., 2007; Gualdi et al., 2008; Knutson et al. 2008; Sugi et al., 2009; Bender et al., 2010) and statistical-dynamical models (Emanuel, 2007) consistently find that greenhouse warming causes tropical cyclone intensity to shift towards stronger storms by the end of the 21* century (2 to 11% increase in mean maximum wind globally). Applying 21* century sea surface temperature projections to a relationship between local SST and tropical cyclone power dissipation (constructed by Emmanuel, 2007), power dissipation is projected to increase by about 300% in the next century (Vecchi et al., 2008; Knutson et al., 2010). Alternatively 20 [page 167] when using a similar strong relationship between power dissipation and relative SST (which represents the difference between local and tropical mean SST), projections indicate almost no change in power dissipation in the next century (Vecchi et al., 2006). Both relationships can be reasonably defended based on physical arguments but it is not clear which, if either is current (Ramsay and Sobel, 2011). When simulating 21* century warming under A1B, the present models and downscaling techniques suggest increases in intensity and fraction increases in the number of most intense storms. The frequency of the most intense storms is more likely than not to increase by more than +10% (IPCC 2013, ARS), while the annual frequency of tropical cyclones are projected to decrease or remain relatively unchanged for the North Atlantic (See Figure 3.2). Of concern however is the limited ability of global models to accurately simulate upper-tropospheric wind (Cordero and Forster, 2006) which modulates vertical wind shear and tropical cyclone genesis and intensity evolution. Knutson et al (2013) conclude that there is likely to be an increase in radius-averaged precipitation rainfall rates near the hurricane core. The conclusion follows from an expected increase in atmospheric water-vapour content, and thus an increase in moisture convergence that results in convective systems, such as hurricanes. Increases of approximately 20% are projected for radii within 100km from the hurricane core. However, an accurate quantification of positive changes for smaller radii prove to be difficult due to complex dynamics near the centre of the hurricane (Knutson et al, 2010). 21 [page 168] Western North Pacific North Atlantic Af EI] vs 4 200% Noa 8 Eastem North Pacific ar d _ £ 0 50 se ER = j ; AT ÉÜr une à ’ SN ri 100% à FAR -50 UN MW -5 L [l LL W l il (L IV AS re pas k South Pacific 5 « n L 5 8 “ ë, Ë - 6 8 î 5 Tropical Cyclone (TC) Metrics: q 1 Ÿ À ” . -50 1 ANTC frequency = IL Category 4-5 TC frequency i n WW ! LL IL Lifetime Maximum Intensity] IV Precipitation rate SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE GLOBAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 50 50 50 ô 0 ë 0 ë 0 -50 "0 “5 1 WOW l WW [l WU Figure 3.2 Projected changes in tropical cyclone statistics. All values represent expected change in the average over period 2081-2100 relative to 2000-2019, under an A1B-like scenario, based on expert judgment after subjective normalisation of the model projections. Four metrics were considered: the percent change in 1) the total annual frequency of tropical storms, 11) the annual frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms, Ill) the mean Lifetime Maximum intensity (LMI; the maximum intensity achieved during a storm's lifetime), and IV) the precipitation rate within 200km of storm center at the time of LMI. For each metric plotted, the solid blue line is the best guess of the expected percent change, and the coloured bar provides the 67% (likely) confidence interval for this value (note that this interval ranges across -100% to +200% for the annual frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms in the North Atlantic). Where a metric is not plotted, there is insufficient data (denoted "X") available to complete an assessment. À randomly drawn (and coloured) selection of historical storm tracks are underlaid to identify regions of tropical cyclone activity. Source: IPCC ARS. 22 [page 169] 4. Some References Ali, À. (1996). 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Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and intensity in a Warming Environment, Science 309, 1844-1846, doi:10.1126/science.1116448 Woth, K., Weisse, R., & von Storch, H. (2006). Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models. Ocean Dynamics, 56(1), 3-15. Yu, J.Y., C.Chou, and P.G. Chiu. (2009) A revised accumulated cyclone energy index. Geophys.Res.Lett. 36, 114710, doi:10.1029/2009GL039254. Yu, J.Y. Chiu, P.G. (2012). Contrasting various metrics for measuring tropical cyclone activity, Terr.Atmos.Ocean.Sci 23 (3), 303-316, doi:10.3319/TA0.2011.11.23.01(A). 27 [page 174] APPENDIX 4: Hazard Profiles EMERGING — <# IDB © NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI Appendix << es ERM [page 175] A4 HAZARD PROFILES A4.1 Introduction The hazard profile in the pursuant sections characterizes each of the hazards in the Area of Study. A brief outline of each hazard and its potential manifestation within the area of study is presented. A description of the main elements utilized to determine or characterize each hazard is provided as is a map that delineates the spatial extent of the hazard to identify hazard prone areas within the study area. The incorporation of long- term meteorological data from regional climate change models is used to better understand the potential impact of climate variability on natural hazards. The distinction of natural hazards must be made between those hazards that are potentially affected by climate change and those that are not. In general, all hazards that are of hydro-meteorological origin are potentially affected by climate change, while geo-hazards are generally not influenced by climate variability. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..1 provides a characterization of hazards identified for this study effort. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..1 Categorization of Natural Hazards Natural Hazards Affected by Climate Change È [sm | e oo £ JS è 8 In-land + N h È £ Flooding Q 5 Coastal È oastal Flooding Source: Revisado de Schmidt-Thomé 2006 It is necessary to note that regional models provide generalized understanding of changes to precipitation, temperature and sea level rise, which are critical inputs to applicable hazard models (coastal flood, in-land flood, hurricane wind, and drought). All hazards have been determined or mapped using the best available data. Hazard maps, where applicable, are developed to identify the areas of general susceptibility. The hazard mapping utilizes a qualitative classification scheme that identifies hazard prone areas as very low, low, moderate, high and very high. A4.2 Seismic Hazard Context An earthquake is caused by a sudden motion or trembling of the earth due to an abrupt release of stored energy in the rocks beneath the earth’s surface. When stresses due to underground tectonic forces exceed the strength of the rocks, they will abruptly break apart or shift along existing faults. The energy released from this process results in vibrations known as seismic waves that are responsible for the trembling and shaking of the ground during an earthquake. Earthquakes are also caused by tremendous rock slides that occur along the ocean floor. ERGING — c<# GIDB © ee. Miatiee ERM 1 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 176] The seismic hazard in Haïti has its origin in the interaction of the North American and Caribbean plates (Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..1), which have a relative eastward movement of 2 cm/year (20 mm/yr). TITI I EPS ee Bahama Platform : : € Ed 111 pi. : Oceanic . [TT De Transpression | | |Oblique collision subduction 4 7 x. as e > e> ) LE D PE me RSA LS 2. 20° à E HSE OR XPR . 2 dd bn ee ‘ gt À ) 2 ER © Strike-sli Predictect 20 Predicted: 20 à } . + £ AVES LA ee ä E- Predicted: 21 3 & : SANA: Rs ñ NS Predictec 21 h DE > - . = served 2 og A = ; Observe 23°, CA ces 10 ; = : , à How is Caribbean plate motion & -éoi me . partitionedin the Hispaniola / perpendicular thrusé motion? # ; area? … : Le Rs ÿ . 4 "7? Dominately raargin-parallei Predicted GPS vector a dé | . sérike-ship motion? | Caribbean plate vector Observed GPS vector | from DeMets et al. (2000) = o 90° #0 70 #0 Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..1 Relative vectorial displacement of the Caribbean tectonic plate Source: (Calais; 2001) The island of Hispaniola is considered a complex area of deformation which presents both subduction zones off the northern and southeastern coast and strike-slip fault zones that transect the northern and southern portion (Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..2). It also has thrust faults within the island (Frankel et. al., 2010). The strike-slip component of the motion is due to the eastward movement of the Caribbean Plate relative to the North American Plate. On Hispaniola, the majority of the strike-slip plate motion is accommodated across two major features: the Septentrional fault zone, which runs across the northern boundary of the island, and the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault zone, which extends from southern-central Hispaniola to Jamaica. The location and characteristics of the significant seismic event that occurred in Haïti in January 2010 indicate that it occurred on a segment of the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault zone (RMS FAQ, 2010). The Matheaux Neiba Fault is a thrust fault that underlies the mountain ranges of Haiti. 2 GIDB L si À ee ERM 2 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 177] 75 <74 13 72° LA LÉ 69" 68" a CRE L L av Nortt er NE n HiSbaniofe ". RTE L'Esmer LE UC tie at _segment bour ki” TT bourdon 2918 20! Tlenal Faur— Haiti ’, : 19" ty 19" 5 re sagrant baundaïÿ —#,, Dominican Republic 16° - \ - 18 Muert. RTOS Trou pe 17" 17 séorient LoUNcHary 16 , - + 16 5 74 13 24 Cal 0" -68° 8 Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..2 Crustal faults and subduction zones used in the hazard maps. Source: USGS, 2010; note: Red lines denote the portions of the Septentional and Enriquillo Faults. Green lines denote the western portions of the Septentrional and Enriquillo Faults that are treated separately. Blue lines denote the traces of the uppermost portion of the subduction zone faults considered. Locations of the inferred segment boundaries used in the hazard maps are marked by arrows. Active subduction zones are located off the northern and southern coasts of Hispaniola. The Northern Hispaniola subduction zone has produced a series of powerful earthquakes from 1946 and 1953 (USGS, 2010). The focal mechanisms for these earthquakes indicate a southwestward subduction of the North American Plate. The Muertos Trough subduction zone is located south of Hispaniola and extends eastward to south of Puerto Rico and there is evidence that this zone ruptured in 1751 in a large earthquake and produced a tsunami (McCann, 2006). There is a verifiable record of earthquake occurrences dating back more than 500 years in the Caribbean (Table AError! No text of specified style in document..2). In general, the occurrence of seismic events in Haïti has been poorly recorded. A review of the information available has indicated that since 1750 the following major events have occurred: Table AError! No text of specified style in document..2 The most important seismic events in the island of Hispaniola [pate | Magnitude Cities affected [| 1564 Conception de la Vega, Santo Domingo |__| 1684 Santo Domingo, Azua sn. EMERGING = La “# BIDB PR Vrétiathes ERM 3 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 178] fout [Magnitude [omesameæes | [rMay [se [50 fPomauprne feMay fige? [69 | Cap-Harien, 2500Wed Source: After McCann 2001; Calais 2001 Note: The impacts of these seismic events can be wide-ranging and therefore this table includes key events across Haiti, not just those for the north. Hazard Determination Seismic hazard maps were developed by USGS in response to the urgent need for seismic hazard information as a result of from the catastrophic earthquake of January 2010. The probabilistic maps were assembled based on the current available information on historical and instrumental seismicity and followed the general methodology developed for the 1996 U.S. national seismic hazard maps (Frankel and others, 2000). The methodology provided in the USGS report authored by Frankel et. al, 2010 is concisely summarized in the sections below, and consisted of adding seismic hazard calculated from crustal faults, subduction zones and spatially smoothed seismicity for shallow earthquakes and Wadati-Benioff- zone earthquakes (Frankel et al., 2010). Faults The fault zones included in the seismic hazard model are the Septentrional fault, Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault zone, and the Matheux Neiba fault (see Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..2). The Septentrional Fault and the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden faults are crustal faults, while the Matheaux Neiba fault is a thrust fault. For each fault, a frequency-magnitude distribution was applied to account for the random uncertainty in accounting for the magnitude of future earthquakes. Seismic moment rates were estimated for each fault from its estimated slip rate, segment length and width. Maximum magnitude of rupture were determined from the segment lengths and empirical relation between surface rupture length and moment magnitude were utilized following Wells and Coppersmith (1994). Subduction Zones The Northern Hispaniola and the Muertos Trough subduction zones were considered in the hazard model. The Northern Hispaniola subduction zone is thought to continue along the entire coast of Hispaniola. The Muertos Trough subduction zone is located south of Hispaniola and extends eastward to Puerto Rico. It appears that the Enriquillo fault merges into this trough. Spatially Smoothed Seismicity Model The spatial smoothed seismicity model, which was developed by Frankel (1995), was utilized to determine the earthquake hazard for Hispaniola. This assumes that future moderate and large earthquakes will occur near ……. EMERGING La << fe BIDB ;: | leériatire ERM 4 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 179] areas that have had significant historic seismic activity in the past. The analysis of historic seismicity is based on a review of background source zones and a review of historical and observed data. The model also utilizes attenuation relations (ground motion prediction equations) for each of the source zones. Slip rates and recurrence rates were determined for each fault segment and subduction zone. A historical catalog, derived from U.S. Geological Survey PDE catalog, the Engdahl and Villasensor Catalog (2002) and the International Seismic Cennter (ISC) catalog, was reviewed and divided into thresholds based on the completeness of data! The seismicity was then further divided into depth ranges. Three depth ranges were utilized to develop a seismicity rate grid: 0-40km, 41-100km, and 101km and deeper). The data was combined and interpolated using Gaussian distribution methods and integrated into a mapping grid to calculate the hazard. The results were then combined with attenuation relations (ground motion prediction equations) for each of the crustal faults and subduction zones to determine the seismic hazard for Hispaniola for firm rock site conditions and with site amplification. Hazard Maps The published USGS hazard maps based on fault slip rates and historical and instrumental seismicity have been used to generate the contours having Peak Horizontal Ground Acceleration (PGA) Rock (firm-rock conditions) values for Haiti (Frankel and others, 2010). These hazard maps are for PGA (percent g) for 10 percent and 2 percent probabilities of exceedance (PE) in 50 years, respectively (Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..3 and Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..3 PGA (% g) with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (475 years return periods) Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..4). 75 74 73 72 7 -70° 69" -58 ar ÈS : = ‘s st 2" En É Lo, - %9 20° Eye $ 20° 26 = 2? ? L47, 180 20 =; LT 100 - 80 60 | “3j 40 v-n j À ++ 19 ” | NUE x te 20 15 DE £ 1 F 18 s ee à 18° 8 | _ : 7 2 l 4 5 4 8 17 - Le, Ex 17 2 1 à < 0 16 - - 16° 75 74 75 72 Al 70 #9 68 Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..3 PGA (% g) with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (475 years return periods) 1 Complete 1960 > M4.0 and 1915 for larger events. 2 GIDB L si À ee ERM 5 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 180] +75 74 75 72 AR <70° -69° 8" 21° + — - 21 Din 28 » + £a LA g 20 24 æd 80 %0 19° y 7} 19° 30 re 25 20 FRE 15 E EE = 10 k 7 k 9 18 *, 18 ; — = 15- 7 4 | &. 4 0 Ex 3 > 1 » 0 je .. SS En, = jé 75 74 43 22 aŸ 70 69 68" Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..4 PGA (% g) with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (2500 years return periods) In the data conversion process, these maps have been first geo-referenced using GIS tools and then the contours present in these maps have been captured as polyline features with necessary attribute values associated with them. The contours are then processed using suitable interpolation techniques and PGA Rock data are distributed in raster grid format for the study area. The following figures (Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..5 and Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..5 Distribution of PGA (in g) with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (475 years return periods) for the study area } present the PGA at Rock level developed by USGS. nn EMERGING= La vf BIDB si Miatiee ERM 6 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 181] F Legend Cat PGA Rock 475 RP / Value < L. je René V Low -023540 Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..5 Distribution of PGA (in g) with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (475 years return periods) for the study area ù l Logand C_JHeti PGA Rock 2500 RP = Vatue Les orrster Ÿ PART Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..6 Distribution of PGA (in g) with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (2500 years return periods) x ING = : c<#* GIDB © Re Miatiee ERM 7 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 182] To validate the results initially, ERM has performed a comparison of the USGS PGA values with data derived from the UN Global study for the study area. It has been observed that the distribution and range of PGA values have similarity for the study area, e.g. the range of PGA (in g) values found in USGS data varies between 0.235 and 0.389, whereas, the UN Global data values vary between 0.402 and 0.419 for 475 years return period. Similarly, in the same area, the PGA for 2,500 years return period varies from 0.417 to 0.775 (in g) in USGS hazard data while PGA values in the UN Global data vary from 0.744 and 0.758 (less variation due to coarser resolution of about 38 km grid). After required data validation and quality checks, the USGS PGA rock data has been carried out to generate PGA Soil values using appropriate site amplification factors for the study area. Soil Modifications Local soil conditions can significantly affect earthquake ground motion of an earthquake. The soil top layers act as filters that can modify the ground motion as a function of their dynamic characteristics. Soft, weak soils tend to amplify long-period seismic motions and thus generally impart large ground displacements to structures, while very stiff soil and rock tend to de-amplify the ground motion. For dynamic purposes, soils are classified in terms of their shear wave velocity. A majority of authors, including the European and NGA developers (Schott et al., 2004; Campbell et al., 2009; Boore et al., 2011; Sandikkaya et al., 2013) have used the average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 meters of sediments, Vs, as the parameter for characterizing effects of sediment stiffness on ground motions. Use of this parameter is considered to be diagnostic in determining site amplification than the broad and ambiguous soil and rock categories used in the earlier studies [with the exception of the relation of Boore et al. (1997), who used Vs]. Therefore, the site amplifications of ground motions relative to a reference rock condition are continuous functions of Vs and have been used for the study area, due to the absence of Haïiti-specific relationships between site classes and amplification effects, and coarse surficial geology at 1:250,000 scale. The widely used NEHRP's site amplification procedure based on shear wave velocities (Wills et al, 2000, BSSC, 2001) has been applied in this study (Table AError! No text of specified style in document..3). Table AError! No text of specified style in document..3 Soil classification scheme based on shear wave velocities ñ NEHRP a aq Shear Wave Velocities Soil Index value /CDM6G Class Brief Description (Vs,30) m/s uw | » | DOS ROUE Te igneous rocks 15 BC Firm sedimentary rocks (mid Miocene age) and 760 lweathered metamorphic |[___20 [| © Kedimentary Formation Mid-Lower Pleistocene age 550-760 25 IWeak rock to gravelly soils - Deeply weathered and L CD highly fractured bedrock 270-550 | 3o [| D Holocene Alluvial soils 180-270 [35 | æœ | oung alluvium / Water-saturated alluvial deposits 90-180 40 Non-engineered artificial fill, soft clays, peat and <90 swamp deposits Topographic Slope Based Seismic Site Conditions Wald et al. (2004), and Wald and Allen (2007), describe a general methodology for deriving maps of seismic site conditions using topographic slope as a proxy. Vs;) measurements (the average shear-velocity down to 30 m + EMERGING nn. | leériatire ERM 8 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 183] depth) are correlated against topographic slope to develop two sets of coefficients for deriving Vs at grids. The site-specific Vs: values have been recommended to be used at finer scales or at particular locations. The basic premise of the method is that the topographic slope can be used as a reliable proxy for Vs as an alternative method in the absence of geologically and geo-technically based site-condition maps by correlating Vs3o measurements and topographic gradient. Based on the past seismicity in northern part of Haiti, the seismic sources and the potential events in the region, the stable coefficient was utilized for Haïti site amplification and spatially interpolated the Vs;, data using GIS tools. Due to the size of the study area, the evaluation of seismic site conditions could not rely on the USGS published Vs: data, which is available at 30 m resolution, or the average shear velocity to 30 m depth (Vs:). Therefore, a high resolution (2m) digital elevation model (DEM) has been used to compute topographic slope based site conditions. In this process, the USGS published Vs: data has been plotted against the high resolution (2m) DEM and correlation has been established between these two parameters (Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..7). 30 LA 25 & 20 L 09 v = & A 81 < n o 3 9 5 $ 10 É < 5 M, D *e ° (] 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 Vs30 Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..7 Average slope and Vs 30 relationship for the study area This correlation provides the basis for establishing site specific values for the higher resolution elevation data which facilitated the calculation of a soil index map using the NEHRP'Ss classification (Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..8). 2 GIDB L PR Vrétiathes ERM 9 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 184] Fous ame —— Rs =, (ms * LR Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..8 The slope map derived from high resolution DEM (left) and distribution of Vs 30 within the study area In the next step, ERM has performed sample review of the distribution of Vs:, values with the topography. The values of Vs at specific sites like foothills, riverine plains have been compared to validate their correlation. The soil classification scheme follows the NEHRP scheme of 7 soil classes and their associated Vs, distribution. The results of the analysis is presented in the below figure (Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..9). ERGING — Le “vf GIDB Miatiee ERM 10 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 185] Legernt [snudy Arsal Soil Index C0 1,50 ER 1.5: -200 MM20:-250 25-30 mm :0-350 | CENT Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..9 Topographic slope based soil classification for the study area, Haïti Site Conditions Validation from Geological Maps The soil index developed for the study area as per NEHRP classes (Table AError! No text of specified style in document..2) has been validated against the available geological maps for the study area in Haiti. Since, the units in the geological map are not so detailed and the extent of the study area considerably small in size, the classified soil index map developed shows broad relationship with the geological classes, though the overall trend of the boundaries shows similarity. Site Amplifications To derive a more detailed understanding of the seismic hazard in the study area, specifically an understanding of amplification, site amplification factors were applied to the soil index values adopted from NEHRP. The site— dependent amplification factors have followed the non-linear two-dimensional soil amplification factors modified from Choi and Stewart (2005); and Walling, M, Walter Silva, and Norman Abrahamson (2008), which relate non-linear multipliers based on the level of ground motion (PGA) and averaged soil index assigned for a given location. The plot of amplification factors for different soil index classes (corresponding to respective Vs; values) normalized by the amplification for reference BC soil Vs30=760 m/s (soil index 1.5), used in the study is shown in Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..5SDistribution of PGA (in g) with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (475 years return periods) for the study area nn EMERGING— Le “vf GIDB Miatiee ERM 11 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 186] © = 7 = ES MERE CD —S$oil Index 1.0 ——$oil Index 2.0 —— Soil index 3.0 S —— Soil index 4.0 = © s [ra £ £ S1.0 M 'E = Ë 3 La 0.1 0.10 1.00 PGA (g) Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..10 Site amplification factors for different soil index values (= VS30 values) The PGA values derived from USGS for the study area were multiplied with site amplification factors that were derived from the Vs:based soil index map. The site amplification factors that were derived from the Vs: data were correlated with values from the high resolution topography to derive appropriate site amplification factors for the soils in the study area (Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..10). The outcomes are earthquake hazard maps, expressed in terms of PGA Soil values at 10 m horizontal resolution’. The final hazard maps developed for the study area is shown in the following figures (Error! Reference source not found. and). 2 Note that the average slope derived from 2m DTM has been used to correlate with corresponding Vs 30 values. The result was at satisfactory level and was expressed in a 10m mapping resolution. +. EMERGING = La «5% BIDB si À ee ERM 12 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 187] | \' Legend LI Study Aron PGA {g} 475 Vr ER. Value nn L. je 0.484840 Low 024419 Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..11 PGA probabilistic seismic hazard map for 10% probability in 50 years, i.e. 475-year return period | Li | Legend 4 7 Stuity Ares * PGA(g}2500vr — Value St L | High: 085304 ” Lum DUT Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..12 PGA probabilistic seismic hazard map for 2% probability in 50 years, i.e. 2,500 year return period x ps | Lo e<# GIDB | PR ERM 13 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 188] Hazard Frequency and Magnitude The basis of the understanding of the frequency and magnitude of a seismic hazard lies in the probabilistic data using modeled information concerning stochastic events. It has been observed that the peak ground acceleration (PGA in g) with site amplification varies from 0.244 to 0.448 within the study area for 475 years return period. In the same area, the PGA for 2,500 years return period varies from 0.406 to 0.853 (in g). Values for the cited return periods are expressed in tabular form in Table A4A4. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..4 Return Period and Peak Ground Acceleration PGA (ranges within data set) Annual Probability 2500 0.406 to 0.853 1/2500% The frequency and magnitude of a seismic event is interpreted by rating the level of PGA, i.e. to a return period of 2500 years, with the annual probability of occurrence. The annual probability of experiencing an event with a range of acceleration of a 2500-year event, then, is 0.04 percent. A4.3 Hurricane Hazard Context Hurricanes and tropical storms are large-scale systems of severe thunderstorms that develop over tropical or subtropical waters and have a defined, organized circulation. Hurricanes have a maximum sustained (meaning 1-minute average) surface wind speed of at least 74 mph:; tropical storms have wind speeds of 39 mph to 74 mph. Hurricanes get their energy from warm waters and lose strength as the system moves inland. Hurricanes and tropical storms can bring severe winds, inland riverine flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion, extreme rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and tornadoes. Hurricanes and tropical storms typically have enough moisture to cause extensive flooding throughout a large geographical area, or in the case of Haiti, the entire country. Hurricane magnitude is measured on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, shown in Table AError! No text of specified style in document..5, which categorizes hurricane magnitude by wind speeds and storm surge above normal sea levels. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..5 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Category Wind Speed Expected Damage Minimal: Damage primarily to shrubbery and trees; unanchored mobile 1 74-95 mph : homes damaged; some damaged signs; no real damage to structures. 2 96-110 mph Moderate: some trees toppled; some roof coverings damaged; major damage to mobile homes. 3 111-130 Extensive: Large trees toppled; some structural damage to roofs; mobile mph homes destroyed; structural damage to small homes and utility buildings. 131-155 Extreme: Extensive damage to roofs, windows, and doors; roof systems on mph small buildings completely fail; some curtain walls fail. Catastrophic: Considerable and widespread roof damage; severe window and 5 >155 mph : : . id: : door damage; extensive glass failures; entire buildings may fail. Haïti is among the most hurricane-prone locations in the world. In 2004, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that during a period from 1909 - 2004, forty-seven (47) tropical storms and hurricanes hit Haïti, +. EMERGING Ka 2285 GIDB in." | iristire ERM 14 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 189] of which nineteen (19) hurricanes or major climatic events (FAO, 2004). From 2004 to 2012, twelve (12) wind storms have made landfall in Haïti (See Table AError! No text of specified style in document..6 below). Data from the Prevention Web’, which provides information on human and economic losses from disasters, indicates that between 1980 and 2010, over four million (4,171,407) persons have been affected by hurricanes. For this same period, Prevention Web furthers that there were 4,990 deaths caused by hurricanes and that the estimated economic impacts for the same period reached over USDS 822 Million in Haïti. Dr. Jeffrey Masters, in a summary of Hurricanes in Haiti entitled “Hurricanes and Haïti: A Tragic History"* indicates that the 2008 hurricane season was the cruelest for Haiti, with four (4) named storms making landfall and dumping heavy rains. He estimates that in 2008 alone, economic damages exceeded $1 billion US dollars. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..6 Hurricane History in Northern Haïti A 7 . 11-12 October: Hurricane Hazel affected every part of 1954 Hurricane Hazel Haiti. Grand Anse, Ouest, Arbonite, Nord-Ouest 1979 August; Location: limited impact on Nord-Ouest 1998 Hurricane Georges 23 September: Hurricane Georges; Location: Sud-Est and Nord-Ouest departments. Hurricane/ 16 August: Tropical Storm Fay crossed the entire 2008 : Tropical Storm Fay country. 2008 Hurricane Hanna 1 September: Hurricane Hanna; Location: Artibonite and Nord-Est 2008 Hurricane Ike 6 September: Hurricane Ike; Location: Nord, Ouest and Nord-Ouest Source: NATHAT, 2012, National Meteorological Center of Haïti; One of the most serious components of hurricanes is high winds. Because of the extensive size of a catastrophic hurricane, a storm need not pass directly over Haïti to cause severe damage. A hurricane passing within close proximity to the island of Hispaniola can also cause major damage to property and even loss of life. Essentially there are no areas of Haiti that are free from hurricane force winds. The coastal and low lying areas, such as those of the study area, experience the first effects of damaging winds. This subsection is focused on Hurricane Winds and effects (inland and coastal) flooding are covered in Sections 4.4 and 4.5 respectively. The rains that accompany hurricanes are intense and last for several days. Intense and prolonged rainfall can cause flooding by which water overflows river banks and puts at risk all low-lying areas along with structures and critical facilities and infrastructure. Coastal flooding or storm surges are also prevalent during hurricanes and have the potential to severely impact low-lying coastal villages and overwhelm homes and other buildings near the ocean. Hazard Determination The methodology developed for the identification of wind hazards for this study was based on numerical modeling of hurricane motion and procedures developed by Vickery, 2008 in an assessment entitled “Development of Design Wind Speed Maps for the Caribbean for Application with Wind Load Provisions of ASCE 7. The reference study, which was performed for the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) under a special grant from the Office of Foreign Development Assistance of the United States Agency for International 3 (http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/?cid=74) 4 http://www.wunderground.com/resources/education/haiti.asp?MR=1 ……. EMERGING Ka e—< tx DIDB nn. | iristire ERM 15 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 190] Development (OFDA/USAID), extended a hurricane simulation model that was originally developed and tested for the Gulf and Atlantic coasts in the United States, to the Caribbean. The models have been calibrated to capture variations of storm characteristics throughout the Caribbean Basin, with specific attention being placed on the Greater Antilles. The technical methodology of the report is concisely summarized below, which forms the basis for the hazard maps utilized in this study. Track and intensity Modeling The hazard model incorporated the associated wind field for historical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. The initial step was to understand the wind speeds for various return periods for locations distributed over the Atlantic and Hispaniola as described in (Vickery et al., 2000, 2008). Central pressure was calculated for each storm and a one dimension model was used to calculate ocean feedback as described in Emanuel et al. (2006). The relative intensity of each storm was then calculated and intensity values were incorporated into a statistical model to understand vertical wind shear. Storm Filling Unlike the United States, there is insufficient data to calculate the effects of roughness on reducing the central pressure of hurricanes in the Caribbean. A filling model is usually used to compute the variation of central pressure of a storm during landfall and to take into consideration the time that the storm is over land and the variation in the intensity of the storm. The limited data that is available is associated with the HURDAT® data, which only has six (6) hour temporal resolution and that lack of landfall and exit pressures when storms make landfall and cross islands in the Caribbean (Vickery, 2012). Instead, a filling model that was developed by Vickery (2005) for the New England coast was utilized to model storm weakening as it provided the best data comparisons of storm central pressure statistics when compared to other models utilized in the region (Vickery, 2005). For the purposes of this study, it was assumed that the wind speed will equal the basic values from the hurricane model due to small size of study area and sparse development (i.e. limited roughness). Model Validation Vickery, as part of the hazard model developed for PAHO/OFDA/USAID implemented a validation procedure that compared the statistics of storm heading, translation speeds, and distance of closest approach, central pressure and annual occurrence rates of modeled and historical storms passing within 250 kilometers of a grid point (Vickery 2008). The tropical cyclones from the period of 1900 to 2007 from HURDAT were used in model validation process. To verify the ability of the model to reproduce the historical storms, statistical tests were performed. The statistical tests include t-tests for equivalence of means, f-test for equivalence of variance and the Kolmogorov- Smirnov (K-S) tests for equivalence of cumulative distribution functions (CDF). The results indicate that overall model reproduces the observed heading data very well and the variance of the observed data is strongly dependent on a few outliers. In most cases, these outliers were associated with one/two storms heading in easterly direction in the southern part of the Caribbean. The modeled values of central pressure represent the minimum pressures anywhere within 250 kms of an established model grid point that is likely to be exceeded, on average, once in 50 years. Quantitative comparison of central pressure shows that the model reproduces wind speeds expected from an intense hurricane passing to the south of the greater Antilles and up through the Yucatan channel. The magnitude of modeled 50 year return period pressures are similar to the observed values, but reflects the smoothing expected for predicted mean values rather than single point observations from 50 year record. In 5 The North Atlantic hurricane database, or HURDAT, is the database for all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, since 1851. EMERGING Ka e— tes BIDB : | iristire ERM 16 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 191] terms of the peak gust, the model and observed wind speeds are in good agreement, however there are relatively few measured gusts with wind speeds greater than 100 mph. While Vickery provides a summary of how the actual hurricane simulation model was validated, ERM also compared the results to a wind hazard data provided in a recent United Nations Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) report entitled “Probabilistic Modeling of Natural Risks at the Global Level: Global Risk Model, 2013”. This global assessment models the cyclonic winds based on previous trajectories recorded for the main oceanic basins of the world. The hazard model used in the UN model forecasts the maximum intensities associated with the potential occurrence and track of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic region. The calculations are performed for each of the selected historical tracks and for a set of “children” tracks obtained through the use of a statistical procedure known as disturbance, which allows generating random tracks that conserve the main characteristics of the historical ones so as to produce probabilistic wind speeds for a series of return periods (i.e. 50-, 100-, 250-, 500- and 1,000- year return periods). The data is available at a resolution of 30 km for wind speed. A comparison of the PAHO/OFDA/USAID data with that of the UN model indicates that the UN global wind hazard maps show only minor variation in wind speed over Haïti (See Table AError! No text of specified style in document..7). For instance, for a 50 year return period the variation between minimum and maximum wind speed was only 3 km/h. For 100 year return period variation between minimum and maximum wind speed was only 3.2 km/h. The data from the PAHO/OFDA/USAID wind hazard maps show a much better variation and distribution of wind speeds over Haiti. Since these maps are derived from wider area maps of Hispaniola region, they provide a good distribution and variation in the study area. For 50 and 100 year return period variation between minimum and maximum wind speed is about 70 km/h. The PAHO/OFDA/USAID wind speed data and hazard maps provide a more refined model for Hispaniola, the spatial resolution of this data is quite good. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..7 Comparison of PAHO/OFDA/USAID and UN Wind Hazard Map over Entire Haïti | souæ | Minimum Wind (Km/PH) Maximum (Km/PH) Range (Km/PH) USAID 50 Year 114.2 (71) 185 (115) USAID 100 Year 130.3 (81) 201.1 (125) **Values in Parenthesis are Wind speed in MPH Climate Variability, Hazard Frequency and Magnitude Climate Change Variability The structure and areal extent of the wind field in tropical cyclones is largely independent of intensity storms and play an important role on potential impacts. With the use of satellite imagery and other instruments, intensity measurements have become more accurate, and as a result, the recorded intensities of wind storms in the Atlantic have been increasing (Kossin et al., 2007; Elsner et al. 2008). Time series of cyclone indices such as power dissipation show upward trends in the North Atlantic since the late 1970s (Emanuel, 2007) but interpretation of longer-term trends is constrained by data quality concerns (Landsea et al., 2012). The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) concluded that a range of modeling studies project a likely increase in peak wind intensity and near storm precipitation in future tropical cyclones. Simulations with high resolution dynamical models (e.g. Oouchi et al., 2006; Bengtsson et al., 2007; Gualdi et al., 2008; Knutson et al., 2008; Sugi et al., 2009; Bender et al., 2010) and statistical- dynamical models (Emanuel, 2007) consistently find that greenhouse warming causes tropical cyclone intensity E 1 nn. \ peu ERM 17 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 192] to shift towards stronger storms by the end of the 21st century, with an expected 2 to 11% increase in mean maximum wind globally. Frequency and Magnitude The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ARS) indicates that the frequency of the most intense storms is more likely than not to increase by more than +10% (IPCC 2013, AR5), while the annual frequency of tropical cyclones are projected to decrease or remain relatively unchanged for the North Atlantic. This suggests no major change in the frequency of hurricanes in North Atlantic region comprising Haïti. The SRES scenario B2 for study area of Haiti suggests that the wind speeds are projected to decrease by very small magnitude of 0.25 m/s (0.559 mph) over the projected for the 20405 relative to the 1960-1990 baseline. These projected changes have applied to model wind speed over the return period to develop wind hazard maps for Haïti that reflect projected climate change scenarios. The resultant maximum wind speed with projected climate change scenario are compared to modeled wind speeds for Haiti and are outlined in Table AError! No text of specified style in document..8. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..8 Hazard Wind Speeds with Climate Change Wind Speed (mph)Without Climate Change Wind Speed (mph) With Climate Change 1700 170.000 169.441 With negligible change in the wind speed (intensity) and no major change in frequency of hurricanes, there should be little effect in terms of climate change on the wind storm hazard that will be used for the risk assessment. Results Hurricanes in their nature are difficult to model for their all associated parameters. It is also very difficult to quantify the impact of climate change on frequency and intensity due to complex nature of phenomenon and interrelations with other variables such as sea surface temperature and changes in land use and climate in inland areas. The summary of the impact of the climate variability is best explained by looking at the changes in wind speed levels found throughout the study region. Presented below are a series of figures which provide an overview of hazard maps in terms of wind speed for three second gusts for a height of 10 meters for a flat terrain for return periods of 50, 100, 700 and 1700 years. E ([ 2<# 8IDB © nn. | iristire ERM 18 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 193] 50 Year Wind Hazard Map without climate change 50 Year Wind Hazard Map with climate change 40 Vear Mind razare er Chmate Change ns 30 veu Pont HAS Mnd 10001 1® 8 27 LR: |. j . - L 1 100 Year Wind Hazard Map without climate 100 Year Wind Hazard Map with climate change change > : 100 Year Wind Hazard mith Climate Change EN 100 Ver Wired Hasard pu rod aie L'HUEr.] CR “ Lee M iué su — à ERGING — c<#% GIDB n À ieaiauee ERM 19 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 194] 700 Year Wind Hazard Map without climate 700 Year Wind Hazard Map with climate change change JS 700 Yon Mind Maud mt Climate Chomge 00 Tour Wet ben rare Sages #0 Le Le 1700 Year Wind Hazard Map without climate 1700 Year Wind Hazard Map with climate change change 1700 Vent Viné Mazmré méth Climate Change D 1700 Vour Viet Hasard Mont Soeat im se = — A4.4 Inland Flood Hazard Floods can arise from a variety of causes. The most commonly understood floods occur when water levels in rivers rise and the waters overtops their banks, and adjacent floodplains and lowlands are subject to recurring floods. This type of flooding usually occurs after intense or prolonged rainfall. There also occurs in Haiti land flooding due to heavy rains where infiltration of rainfall is impeded (through either impermeable soils or development impacts). This form of localized flooding has not been assessed in this study. +. EMERGING = La 6 BIDB n Vrétiathes ERM 20 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 195] Floods in Haiti, as in other Caribbean islands, follow tropical weather patterns. Haiti has two distinct rainy seasons, one from April to June and another from October to November. There have been a number of large- scale devastating flooding events in Haïti through time (see Table AError! No text of specified style in document..9 below). Historically, most of the flooding events have been tied to large-scale climatic events (i.e. tropical cyclones) and have historically had the greatest impact. Recently, however, smaller low pressure systems have impacted Haiti on a yearly basis. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..9 History of Floods in Northern Haïti D ver [even mem 1996 Flooding Very heavy rains have caused floods in several parts of the country, in particular the departments of the North, the Northwest, the Grande Anse and the Gonave island. 2003 Flooding Following rains between Saturday, 20 and Monday, 22 December, severe 2006 Flooding On the 22 and 23 November, heavy rains caused flooding in Grand'Anse Department and the Nippes and Nord-Ouest departments; Damage to roadways including the collapse of a bridge across Ravine Sable at Trou-Bonbon. 2007 Flooding On 17 March, 50 people had to be evacuated from areas at risk in Grand Anse. New floods were recorded in Cap-Haitien, in other parts of North and Grand Anse. 2012 Flooding Tropical Storm Isaac hit Haiti on 25 Aug 2012, killing at least 19 people. 15,000 people had to be evacuated and 335 homes were destroyed. 2012 Flooding Flooding caused by Hurricane Sandy killed 60 people and significantly damaged critical infrastructure such as roads, schools and hospitals. 1.8 million people have been affected, and more than 18,000 homes have been flooded, damaged or destroyed. (UN News, 2 Nov 2012) 2012 Flooding Heavy rains during the night of 8-9 Nov 2012 in the Nord, Nord-est, Nord- ouest and Nippes departments of Haïti resulted in flooding, damage to homes and 10 deaths in Cap Haitien. More than 1,500 people were housed in 14 shelters. 2013 Flooding Heavy rains on 14, 15 and 28 Jun 2013 caused flooding in Haiti's Artibonite, Nord-ouest and Centre departments. Six people were killed and over 6,600 families affected. Extensive damage was reported in the agriculture and livestock sectors. Source: Relief web, accessed on December 10, 2013, http://reliefweb.int/disasters?f#5B%5D=field country%3A113&f%5B%5D=field disaster type%3A4611 Haitis rugged and mountainous terrain coupled with environmental degradation and poor watershed management has created optimal conditions for over bank flooding problems. Haiti’s surface waters are concentrated in a restricted number of important rivers that account for about 60 percent of the flow regime (World Bank, 1991). At present it is not unusual for Haiti’s rivers to reach or exceed the high water line twice each year (USAID, 2007). The two principal watersheds in the Study Area are the Trou du Nord and the Grande Rivière du Nord. The principal river of the Trou du Nord Watershed is the Rivière Trou Du Nord. The Trou du Nord watershed measures 110 Km? and the average annual flow rate is estimated to be 0.98 m°/sec (UniQ, 2010). It has a permanent source of water available year round. River flow tests, which were conducted as part of a hydrological assessment of the watershed in 2011, estimated river flows to be 0.45 m°/s (February, 2011) and 70 m°/s in (July, 2011). The Rivière Franiche, Rivière Pilette and Rivière Cabaret are the main tributaries to this river and are intermittent streams and are dry part of the year. The Petite Rivière, an intermittent river, is also located in this basin and drains into the Trou du Nord plain. The Grande Rivière du Nord watershed measures 680 Km? and the average discharge (mean daily flow) 5.44 is m*/sec. (USAID, 2007). The Rivière Caracol and ……. EMERGING La e— tes BIDB : | leériatire ERM 21 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 196] Rivière Cartache are main tributaries to this river. The Rivière Caracol is a permanent river with a constant source of water, while the Rivière Cartache is an intermittent stream and is dry part of the year. In a 2007 study to compare and rank Haitis watersheds quantitatively, USAID along with the Haitian Government, established review criteria for prioritizing watershed interventions. The USAIDF study explored the relative ranking of watersheds based on their vulnerability to loss of human life, productive infrastructure, soil potential, or erosion risk. Out of Haitis 54 watersheds, the study found that the relative vulnerability ranking of the Trou de Nord and Grand Rivière du Nord watersheds to be significant. A NN EL gr : - 4 a e ee Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..13 Key watersheds in the Study area Source: ERM, CNGIS The general susceptibility of these watersheds in the Northern Development Corridor, has not declined in recent years. In fact, the widespread deforestation, clearing of land for agriculture and increased urbanization has served to exacerbate flooding problems in the region. Urban expansion and unplanned urban development, does not allow aquifers to function as storage and floodplain to work as filters during intense rainfall events (USAID, 2007). The commune of Quarter Morin, which is situated in a moist, low lying alluvial plan and bordered on the east by the Grand Riviere du Nord, is prone to flooding. Several factors have worked to increase the susceptibility of flooding, including more intense climatic events, increased run-off, and the accumulation of debris 5 USAID 2007, Environmental Vulnerability in Haiti: Findings & Recommendations . 2 ING = “x GIDB © ERM 22 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 197] downstream. Limonade is bordered by the Grand Riviere du Nord on the west. While the Barrage de Tannerie previously helped to contain flood waters and provide irrigation during the dry season, the dam failed in the 1960s and has not been repaired. Intense rainfall causes flooding and the accumulation of water in low-lying areas which are slow to drain following flooding events due to limited or inadequate storm water drainage infrastructure. Limonade receives an average of 1200-1400 mm rainfall annually. In Trou du Nord, the terrain, rainfall and soil types, in both the mountains and plains, give rise to a fairly dense network of rivers. The Trou-du-Nord river is the most important river system. In low-lying portions of commune, there are a series of smaller tributaries and torrential gullies. Large areas of the plain are subject to frequent flooding caused by torrential downpours. The heavy clay content of the soil causes erosion and results in frequent sediment build up in streams. Urban areas are adjacent to the main river with development occurring in riparian zones. Historically, the city has been flooded severely. Flood risks are also present in the northeast portion of the Terrier Rouge commune, sometimes impacting the city on its northern edge. To the south, settlements experience higher annual rainfall amounts, and as a result, experience flash floods. The urban development of the city is constrained by low lying topography, which is prone to flooding. The annual rainfall averages 900 mm on the coast to 1200 mm south of the RN6. Determination of Flood Hazard A detailed flood hazard assessment methodology was pursued to include a meteorological analysis that includes a probabilistic simulation of rainfall which has considered climate change. The hydrological modeling has been conducted for the Basin de la Grande Riviere du Nord and Basin Trou de Nord. The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) is designed to simulate the precipitation-runoff processes of dendritic watershed systems so as to take into consideration total drainage to account for geometric profiles of watersheds. We have used high resolution DTM to conduct the hydrological modeling to generate the precipitation-runoff processes (i.e. flows). Finally, hydraulic modeling of the main rivers identified above have been undertaken to develop probabilistic flood forecast maps for six return periods (i.e. 2-, 5-,10-, 25-, 50-, 100-return periods) for the portions of the basin that intersect the study area. Challenges in Flood Hazard Model The main challenges presented focused attention on filling in gaps of daily precipitation data and resolving issues associated integrating DTMs at different resolutions of DTMs for the study area. Precipitation Modeling The lack of reliable flooding data, as well as the lack of instrumental rainfall and discharge or flow data within the region, has predicated the need to depend on older national level historical rainfall data or regional proxies in order to understand the hydrology of watersheds within the region. National and regional precipitation data from pluviometric stations that was collected revealed that there was extensive data collected at monthly time intervals and very poor or limited data for 24 hr intervals. The paucity of 24 hr data, which is needed for flood modeling, predicated the need to fill gaps by developing a 24 hr precipitation baseline by comparing monthly rainfall data and global models (i.e. Santa Clara University). This was done in order to ensure that an appropriate approximation was developed to understand flows in the hydrological model. The development of a 24 hr intensity baseline was essential for the execution of a hydrological model given the small size of the study area. It is important to note that various global rainfall data models were compared, evaluated against each other and available monthly rainfall data. The various data compared have been given in +. EMERGING Ka << 6 GIDB ;: | iristire ERM 23 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 198] Table AError! No text of specified style in document..10. . EMERGING = .<#% GIDB © Re À ee ERM 24 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 199] Table AError! No text of specified style in document..10 Various Global Data Compared for Deriving Daily Rainfall Distribution Esene [De | TemponiReoten | Avaisbiiy | Pernod | 1 CPC .25x.25 Daily US Unified Daily USA 1948 to ES EE 3 CMAP global gridded precipitation Monthly Global 1979 to near RE Global Precipitation Climatology Monthly Global 1901- RE 5 GPCP V2.2 Precipitation Monthly Global 1979- FE U. of Delaware Precipitation and Air Monthly Global 1901-2010 RE I 7 TRMM- Tropical Rainfall Measuring Radar Based Rainfall Sub | near global 2000 RE EE Santa Clara University - Gridded Daily Global 1950-1999 RE ES EE For probabilistic return period analysis of rainfall, at 30 years of continuous records are desirable so were data at a daily time interval. Therefore, the Santa Clara University data was utilized for the time period of 1950-1999, which matches with the longest and consistent data recorded in Haïti. Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..14 provides a depiction of a comparison of the monthly precipitation data from Santa Clara University and that of the Cap Haitien pluviometric station. The 24 hour rainfall data from nearest grid point of Santa Clara University has been processed and a time distribution has been applied over the monthly rainfall data that has been collected for pluviometric stations in and around the study area. Snapshot of estimated daily time step data is given below (Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..15). [ 3000 Ë 2500 5 £ 2000 1 8 1500 [4 É | Ê ë 1000 + A. +. ë soû ARTE >: 2 - [c) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Observed Data Cap Haïtian Station Annual Rainfall, mm Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..14 Comparison of Santa Clara Data with observed monthly precipitation data +. EMERGING — Ka #—< fi DIDB = À iiattee ERM 25 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 200] aesof à] 3] _1@hems | Sise) 277) ni] 1" ECO ES VE CC CE ET) D ©" EC ET VE RE CE ME ET DEN: EEE C9) SE OT ET) (ass) 22] 25 sem) ess) 208] sui] 1œ! free] aa] a 2m] mt 2m] sil 22 Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..15 Snapshot of estimated daily rainfall using observed monthly rainfall and Santa Clara data The simulated daily rainfall data for the pluvimetric stations have been used to estimate probabilities or return period rainfall. Using simulated data series, annual maximum 24hr was derived for 49 years to fit the probability distribution. Using Log Pearson Type Il! distribution return period rainfall for 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years has been estimated (Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..16). <# GIDB © ERM 26 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 201] — Without Climate Change — With Climate Change 300 250 + ! _ € 200 most Ë _ 3 150 £ & 100 = 50 0 1 10 100 Return Perlod, Years — Without CC — Engg Finm Study — With CC 300 250 : » E 200 : E 3 150 £ æ 100 : sa o + | 1 10 100 Return Period, Years ] Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..16 Estimated Return Period Rainfalls The estimated return period rainfall has been given as input to HEC-HMS model for simulation of flows to corresponding return periods. Digital Elevation Model Development Initially only a 10 m DTM was available for the study area. The hydrological modeling was initiated to determine if this resolution was sufficient for modeling purposes. It was found that the 10 m DTM was quite flat in coastal areas, with very negligible variation (i.e. the coastal areas showed mostly O0 m elevation). Instead, a 2 m DTM was made available for a more confined study area and required that the 2 m DTM be merged with the 10m DTM in order to create an elevation model with sufficient resolution for flood modeling. The merging of the two elevation models presented challenges as there was a high variation in the elevation in overlapping areas particularly at the southern edges (Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..17). e. EMERGING = La “= # BIDB Re Vrétiathes ERM 27 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 202] _ —— Fr & | FR ___# JDE x 4 PAT ( | NS \ y " h > D L LD 1 À 7 n \ J. D gAX, \ / > ( \ h TI \ / } À. f=S L À PA \ NP ( | ( À j- K n Le j à) 5 | * L Ÿ- \ \ f, ù. V4 bte. 1 | ME AN PK £ Po VA, j LE \ pa [= k be ( ee ) — 2mDTM 10 m DTM Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..17 Two different DTMs available for study area and beyond As discussed above, two DTMs (of 2m and 10m resolutions) were evaluated separately. It was found that overlapping areas of two DTMs showed elevation difference of + 10 m at the edge of 2 m DTM predicating a more complex merger procedure that involved the overlaying of contours to understand elevation differences and the use of generalized and point specific data to refine data to desired the 2 m resolution. This merged 2 m DTM was cross checked with 9 Geodetic Control Points made available by IDB and the comparison revealed only a 0.12m average differential in elevation (Table AError! No text of specified style in document..11). 28 GIDB | ee. ERM 28 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 203] Table AError! No text of specified style in document..11 Various Global Data Compared for Deriving Daily Rainfall Distribution | Gcppoint | GCP Elevation Merged DTM Elevation, m 14.80 1453 16 |1435 14.07 18 |220 ati CS EE EE A CAS Hydrological Model A Hydrological model for key watersheds/drainage basins of the study area have been developed using HEC- HMS model. The hydrologic model was established in a GIS framework using Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) ArcGIS and HEC-GeoHMS 4.2 software. HEC-GeoHMS 4.2 is an extension application that supports identification of the river network and division of the catchment (basin area) into a number of sub areas. This procedure requires a digital elevation model (DEM). As mentioned earlier, the 2 m merged DTM was used to delineate basin and river networks. Using HEC Geo-HMS, the river network and sub basins have been delineated using a systematic approach. The approach creates raster grids for catchment delineation. Activities to complete the model include filling sinks, creating flow direction and flow accumulation grids, processing catchment grid, and processing drainage line. The physical representation of the basin incorporates various hydrologic elements (sub basins, river reaches, and junctions), which are connected in a dendritic network to simulate the rainfall-run-off process. Based on the DTM, soil and land use information, various parameters such as abstractions, infiltration, routing have been estimated for each sub basin and are given as input to the model. Grand Rivere du Nord: The hydrological basin area of Grand Rivere du Nord is estimated to be approximately 611 square kilometers. Through basin delineation and hydrological model development process, fifty-one (51) sub basins were developed for this basin, which also included 25 stream reaches. The HMS model schematic for this basin is shown in Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..18. +. EMERGING nn. | iristire ERM 29 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 204] | de be me homperente bommetet Compte dmnte Vent dome Data t+isiesTtrsh ame + La FE : ES À “on = QU M f k Æ = À SX. += [e” W RE cran Et os Va 4 À LS l per « LS ne ei À CP Dr we nn vrac evo € CEA 2 pre JE ER rue =” 9 AP TRCAS ae ju + Ÿ c: k eu | ne . À val Se 4 r- far ie 4 KT PES L# Al PME œ —- & dE EE — s' Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..18 HMS set up for River Grand du Nord Trou du Nord: The basin area of main stream of Trou du Nord is estimated to be approximately 106 square kilometers. Through basin delineation and hydrological model development process in all 11 sub basins were developed for this basin, which also included 5 stream reaches. HMS model schematic for this basin is shown in Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..19. The HMS model schematic for another stream in Trou du Nord basin is shown in Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..19 HMS set up for River Trou du Nord BC A 43 gen Some ne CORRE CE Led nt Ps Lt Ven Components Ponaun Comgues Rent Tous tp Dégæ 14cm 0 0 00 ane CE +) à | f 2 ppheun Foret Fr \, SA An UT Éca . LES nf éme ae , Tel \N= à \ À NS Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..19 HMS set up for River Trou du Nord 28 GIDB | Vétiatiee ERM 30 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 205] me DŒus hé<srer trs saume L | : de Fun nacmf Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..20 HMS set up for River Trou du Nord (Stream 2) The key selected parameters three watersheds are given in Table AError! No text of specified style in document..12. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..12 Various Global Data Compared for Deriving Daily Rainfall Distribution” River Basin length of principal Slope, Concentration river, m m/m time (min) Grand River Du Nord 107,949 0.0044 | 1,186 In absence of the observed historical flow or discharge information, detailed hydrological model calibration and validation was not possible. In order achieve the reasonable confidence in developed models, runoff coefficients (ratio of runoff to rainfall) from reported studies (MARNDR, MPCE, MICT, MDE, 2000) were compared with simulated runoff coefficient from the model developed in this study. The study MARNDR, MPCE, MICT, MDE, 2000 reported runoff coefficient for River Grand Du Nord as 20.5%. Various simulations of the model used for this study gave an average runoff coefficient of 18.1%. The difference between observed and simulated runoff coefficient is 2.4 % and was determined to be within acceptable range, and as a result, the average run-off coefficient (i.e. 18.1%) was used to simulate the return period flows for various streams. 7 In absence of recorded daily rainfall, analysis is based on mix of observed monthly and modeled rainfall records and only with very extensive and reliable flow information would we be able to accurately model hydrological regime. en EMERGING = La e— te DIDB * À irniaties ERM 31 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 206] Hydraulic Model In many applications of river flood modeling, a one-dimensional full hydrodynamic modeling system is used. The one-dimensional hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS, developed by the United States Army Corps of Engineer’s Hydrologic Engineering Centre, was used for performing hydraulic calculations for the river stretches. HEC-RAS is an integrated system of software. It can calculate water surface profiles for both steady and unsteady, gradually varied flows for a full network of natural and constructed channels. Steady flow simulation was adopted for this study. The model comprises channel and floodplain geometry, which is defined by a series of cross-sections or transects together with hydraulic structures such as bridges, weirs, and levees. The basic computational procedure is based on the solution of the one-dimensional energy equation. Energy losses are evaluated by friction, expansion, and contraction losses. The momentum equation is utilized in situations where the water surface profile is varying rapidly. The situations include a mixed flow regime. Cross Sections The HEC Geo-RAS software application was used in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) (ESRI Arc GIS 10) to develop and verify geometry of principal river systems by developing cross section of the channels and floodplains. HEC- GeoRAS is a set of procedures, tools and utilities that were used to process georeferenced data in a GIS environment to facilitate and complete the job with HEC- RAS. For this study, the cross sections of the channel and the geometry of the terrain in HEC- GeoRAS were digitized and then the file is exported to HEC- RAS to calculate flow rates. Cross-sections have been extracted from DEM at a spacing of about 100 m. The HEC- RAS tool interpolates channel cross sections, as shown in the figures below. After performing hydraulic modeling with HEC- RAS , HEC- with a post-process generated the final GeoRAS results that are flooding surfaces for each return period was performed. Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..21 and Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..22 show the cross sections for river Grand Du Nord and River Trou Du Nord respectively. er 0 RO ON REZ - L SE 4 | cs | == | | +. EMERGING = La «5% BIDB é À ieaiates ERM 32 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 207] Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..21 Cross section for River Grand du Nord ae RTS © CR EE. —— CE pe PF — 3 eie) orerss + maps Mot AD Pre Plndt 29120 | — ” + e—+ " 4 RS FH “| =. a ne ste à : | Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..22 Cross section for River Trou du Nord Roughness Coefficients The Manning roughness coefficients were determined based on land use information available. Manning coefficients for the main channel and floodplains are shown in Table AError! No text of specified style in document..13 below. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..13 Roughness Coefficients mer | Foodptan | mainchama | River Grand Du Nord 0.035 0.025 River Trou Du Nord 0.035 0.025 + ERGING — c<## GIDB ‘2 PR Miatiee ERM 33 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 208] Peak flow Rates Table AError! No text of specified style in document..14 presents the flow rates (cumec) for return periods of 2,5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..14 Peak flow rates for major rivers . Grand River Du Nord Trou Du Nord Return Period, 130 123.0 Lao |a3 |a00 | 238.5 263.5 30 3590 su0 4360 5280 593.0 [87 |358 0 | 635.0 n30 108.0 The summary of flow rates represents appropriate scenarios for modeling the flood hazard in the study area. Having said this, the analysis is based on modeled rainfall records and only with very extensive and reliable flow information would we be able to accurately model hydrological regime. Flood Hazard Maps The above data was used to understand flood hazard, particularly the overflow channels in the Northern Development Corridor of Haiti by defining associated flood events with different probabilities. For the calculation of these variables the HEC-RAS hydraulic model was used to characterize inland flooding in the study area. Flood hazard maps for 50 and 100 year return periods are shown in Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..23 and Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..23 Flood Hazard Map without Climate Change 50 year return period +. EMERGING cs GIDB 2 sn." | leériatire ERM 34 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 209] : \ } RE Co: + © En 1 À à [ras | | | | Lin Là | \ TX ‘a | .. | \ | | \ Legend À —_ es Flood 50 Year RP Without Climate Change! | ‘1 f'iood Depthom | ER Lo: \ | LL. Li en CRE D nhaninie —lSlé RS en | ie Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..23 Flood Hazard Map without Climate Change 50 year return period ss: ff D | Sé el LE — E— Ee— hour l | || 7 | € : l | - H:: | (| | ÿ } Ç x l \ | Legend \ L : T |Ao0d 100 Year RP Without Cimate _ / |riood Dept sf Wen TR NENT LÉ Re GET ER ET Er Es | (Lee Paoasen Ssm ares Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..24 Flood Hazard Map without Climate Change 100 year return period Climate Variability, Hazard Frequency and Magnitude Climate Change Variability including Climate Change “<## GIDB ? | ERM 35 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 210] The main step in delineating the extent of flooding under future climatic conditions involves the use of climate projections (taken from the University of West Indies studies in Appendix 3). Rainfall data, particularly the potential increase in extreme rainfall events, in return flow values at 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 year return periods to understand changes in susceptibility to flooding due to climate change were applied. The resulting impacts are manifested in changes in the extent of flooding. The projected impact on climate change is presented in Table AError! No text of specified style in document..15, which shows the variance in maximum flow rates for events of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 year return periods, as well as shown in Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..25 for main stream of river Trou Du Nord for all return periods. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..15 Peak flow rates for major rivers with and without climate change 528.0 632.0 635.0 737.0 593.0 707.0 713.0 829.0 EMERGING Ka «5% BIDB nn. | iristire ERM 36 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 211] —Simulated Flow Without CC ——=Simulated Flow With CC 140.0 | er D EU EN UN EE ï 120.0 L 1 Lili TTL F | 100.0 ae Bis 1 E ol LL 4 Les | £ 800 RE DIEC Ie 1) U ê Gt —— tt ER tre | 1 40.0 --——>% PT D OT _l Ii. Lil QE a 1 10 100 Retrun Period, Years Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..25 Return Period Flows with and without climate change for Trou du Nord river Frequency and Magnitude Table AError! No text of specified style in document..16 shows maximum flood depths simulated for the study area with and without climate change. Results shows that with climate change on an average flood depth will increase by about 0.23 m (23 cm) across all return periods. With climate change, the flood depth for a 100 year return period is expected to be 10.17m. Flood hazard maps for 50 and 100 year return periods with climate change are shown in Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..26 and Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..27. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..16 Various Global Data Compared for Deriving Daily Rainfall Distribution Maximum Flood Depth, m Return Period, Years Without CC With CC EC ET ECO 50 ose lion 1017 1036 c<# SIDB À PR Vrétiathes ERM 37 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 212] ESP LE ST = + a? 1 a - — è DL Pas ft _=# # ] — 4 d Fr: \, [|— sais L\ 7° [Food 50 Year RP With Climate Change nn / Flood Depthim Le. { y 10 1907 Lg ES E bonne ED |. pneus |__| Cour Soundar | Hô ircopesss Sue Aïsa Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..26 Flood Hazard Map with Climate Change 50 year return period “ D _— ne / CE TER 2 A) rs F | LYS 2 2 r | É, EE LL. À D —— x LÉ | | | | | 4 ds | » 2 \ d'A “ = 4 fo \ À re TT da | À | RARE \ | f|— vs \ °° |R0od 100 Year RP With Ciimate Change | | X [ [Flood Depihm -— { an Wim 9 25 = %! LES + | L___] Courir Spanmary Diem Prgebei Dit Ars “<## GIDB Le ERM 38 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 213] Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..27 Flood Hazard Map with Climate Change 100 year return period Through climate change impact assessment on floods it is observed that slight increase in frequency and magnitude will have minor impact on vulnerability of the structures in the study area. Overall impact in terms of climate change induced flood risk shall have minor implications in planning stage. Comparing the areas of the floodplain without climate change reveals that the flood zone for the event 50 years would be 12.21 km? and the floodplain for the event 100 years would be 13.09 km?. In other words, there is only a slight change (7.2 % increases) in the extent of the floodplain for the 100 year event. The comparison between flood zones for events 50 and 100 years with climate change reveals bit smaller difference in the flooded area (about 5.2 % increase as shown in Table AError! No text of specified style in document..17) Table AError! No text of specified style in document..17 Comparison of Inundation area with and without climate change Return Period, Inundation Area, sq km Years Without CC With CC [5 [96 |103 1059 11.37 11.53 12.41 221 1297 13.09 13.64 A comparison between the return period of 50 years without and with climate change reveals just a 6.2 % increase, while the difference in the floodplain for the event 100 years with and without climate change was 4.2 %. A4.5 Coastal Flood Hazard Context High waves associated with tropical cyclones are potentially very dangerous and damaging to the coastal settlements. The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)$ identify this phenomenon as storm surge, which is defined as an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tides. NOAA furthers that storm surge should not be confused with storm tide, which is defined as the water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide. This rise in water level can cause extreme flooding in coastal areas particularly when storm surge coincides with normal high tide. The storm surge is produced by water being pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds moving cyclonically around the storm. The impact on surge of the low pressure associated with intense storms is minimal in comparison to the water being forced toward the shore by the wind. In the Caribbean, hurricane categories can be used to approximate expected storm surges. The resulting potential inundation areas are grouped by categories which refers to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane intensity Scale described in 8 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/ … (l . nn. | iristire ERM 39 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 214] Table AError! No text of specified style in document..18. . EMERGING = .<#% GIDB © Re À ee ERM 40 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 215] Table AError! No text of specified style in document..18 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale and expected storm surge Storm Surge (feet above normal sea level) The intensity of the storm surge is affected by the width and slope of the continental shelf. A shallow slope will potentially produce a greater storm surge than a steep shelf. In the north, continental shelf drops off very quickly, which works to lessen the impact of storm surge. The interaction of these various processes is illustrated in . The total design water level can be computed by addition of three components. The wave setup heights are the heights of wave crests above the storm surge level in open water. The coastal provinces of Northern Haïti experience coastal flooding due to the destructive effects of total design water levels. LS ALES ANR Wind Waves IS LÉ ROEN Storm Surge ML PINI LS Highest Ti ELLE ALL PL D LL LT Level LR ALI LÉ LPS, se LE iowest Tide Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..28 Systematic diagram illustrating the contributions to coastal sea level from tides, storm surge and wave processes Source: http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/s!_drives_short.html Zahibo° (2012), however, postulates that the position of the island of Hispaniola may give it special protection from extreme waves. The presence of several banks (Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..29) , Such as the Turks and Caicos, Mouchoir and Silver banks, protect coastal areas against the long swells of generated in the North Atlantic. Zahibo furthers that these extensive shallow areas (50-150 meters in depth) dissipate the energy of longer swells and thus reduce the potential impact from waves. ° unpublished paper as part of NATHAT sn EMERGING = La é À Vrétiathes ERM 41 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 216] Bathymetry (m) of the Hispaniola Island 24N \ 23N ” -1000 22N -2000 21N pont -3000 20N -4000 - 19N S sh -5000 18N -6000 17N -7000 16N -8000 15 N x " 16W 74W 72 70W 68W 66 W Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..29 Bathymetry of the Island of Hispaniola Source: Adopted from Zahibo, 2012, General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans, 2008 In Northern Haïti, towns such as Bor de Mer de Limonade, Caracol and Phaeton are susceptible to coastal flooding caused by storm surge. The American Association of Architects, indicate that these settlements are in a precarious location to shoreline (American Institute of Architects, 2012). Similarly, populated areas that are peripheral to the study area, such as Cap Haitian and Petite Anse to the west and Fort Liberte in the east, are also susceptible to coastal flooding. There is, however, limited documented history concerning storm surges in Haïti, let alone well documented instances of coastal flooding within the Northern Development Corridor. Hazard Determination The hurricane induced probable storm surge heights can be derived in a scientific manner based on hydrodynamic modeling. This approach consists of two major components. The first component comprises a hurricane wind field model that provides estimates of the wind speed and direction based on key hurricane parameters at an arbitrary position. The second portion of the model is the surge model uses numerical methods to predict storm surges by solving equations to determine the response of the sea and associated inland extent of flooding that could be generated by a hurricane (cyclonic surface wind field) crossing any coastal stretch. Such models are data intensive and require extensive modeling of a number of parameters such as oceanographic and meteorological parameters, hydrological input, basin characteristics, coastal geometry, wind stress and seabed friction, and information about astronomical tides. In addition, the accuracy of the surge height and associated flood depth and extent of horizontal inundation depends heavily on the accuracy and resolution of the bathymetry data and elevation data that is available for coastal areas. Coastal Hazard Flood Model Since the data requirements for the development of a detailed determination of the coastal flooding hazard were unavailable for this study effort, a regional model was utilized and adopted to understand wave and surge heights in the study area. The information utilized for this study effort was derived from the Atlas of Probable Storm Effects in the Caribbean Sea, which was developed under the Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project en EMERGING = La #—< fi DIDB à" À irniaties ERM 42 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 217] (CDMP), a joint effort of the Organization of American States (OAS) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The Arbiter of Storms (TAOS) hazard modeling system was used to create the storm hazard data sets that were used for this study. Technical details of the TAOS model system are documented in various published papers noted in the bibliography, in particular Watson and Johnson (1999). The TAOS combined three wind, hydrodynamic and wave models using the ensemble assimilation methodology used to analyze the results of multiple models may be found in (Watson, 1995; Watson and Johnson, 1999) TOAS wind modeling Winds represent sustained 1-minute winds at 10 m above the surface, and include both surface friction and topographic effects at a resolution of 30 arc-seconds. Friction factors were used for land-cover classification, with water, forest and open land predominating. TAOS Wave Modeling The wave model configuration used for the Caribbean simulation consisted of the NOAA Wavewatch III model, modified within the TAOS storm centered grid system. Modeling was carried on regional basis on a 30 meter grid cell, allowing for an adequate treatment of the near-shore wave environments. Waves are the heights of wave crests above the storm surge level in open water. TAOS Storm Hazard modeling The TAOS storm hazard modeling system contains three primary storm surge modeling modules that include the effects of astronomical tides, which take into consideration relative to mean sea level. Wave setup (but not wave run-up) is included in the storm surge values. Surges over land are shown as elevation above sea level, not water depth. Hazard Maps Based on the results, TAOS provided wave and storm surge heights for four return periods (10, 20, 50, and 100 years), which were reported for specific points along the Haitian coast. For this study, wave height and surge heights that were reported for Cap Haïitian were adopted for the entire study area. The total surface water levels were computed as a linear addition of storm surge amplitudes, tidal amplitudes, and wave setup. These water levels were then projected onto the coastal land using GIS techniques and intersected with a 2M Digital Terrain Model (DTM) to demarcate the horizontal extent of inundation. As the surges considered tidal information and are assumed to reflect flooding at mean sea level, the flood depths are deduced by subtracting local topography from the total water levels. Based on this information given in the Table AError! No text of specified style in document..19, probabilistic coastal inundation maps of the following the 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return periods were developed for the entire study area and are depicted in Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..30, Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..31, Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..32 and Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..32 50 Year Return Period E 1 sn * | iristire ERM 43 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 218] Table AError! No text of specified style in document..19 Newly Available high resolution DTM for study area (DTM source used) Return Period Wave Height (m) Surge Height (m) Total Surface Water Levels (m) 25 ver 87 [06 [as | | sovear | 42 [os [so 100 Year | ei: a én D " Le bo. > V : et 179 Lt SE gr dent QUE MA. '… 27 7”: ——— ME dec ren — AZ. 4] ne: pa Fa f VAN V'ATOP ’ , / ue Bali Legend 7 | CC] runs Preposed Stuo araa | eme D: New DTM Study Area Elevation, m Her 180279 | Le Cosstai Surge 10 Year RP [ Flood Depth, m l 2< 8 40 Himekers | " tan :22 nées j 1 | Low D Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..30 10 Year Return Period nn EMERGING= La 28" GIDB Miatiee ERM 44 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 219] ——— — < — w L 4 À | 5 an … nt dé L 7 Mi, . l ei —- d: D — , Le “" Æ F À Ï | : nt es LA M Te À. : : Avi : | ' : | | | Legend ] { — à CL] mue Prapusait fur Anna CE - IE : New DTM Study Area ) Elwation, xs 1270 Len 0 Coastal Surge 26 Year RP Piood Depth, m ban 41 EPS 2 EE 1 - " | | Las. 0 Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..31 25 Year Return Period + | ATEL * | : ai nn \g TN Emme : nr.” ”_ 0 402 L ne" de — Œ 1>< 9 + — 9 "+ # = ” # A, nl 1 Ft 7 Aa: | Legend | LLC ALT SLEL EUTERE ET LS ue ———{ New D'TM Study Area Elevation, m | | Hen - 163379 | | Low 0 Coastal Surge 50 Year RP (Flood Depth. en o 2 | 5 2 Kermi | Ho: ft —— #7 Il , EE pe eu | Le Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..32 50 Year Return Period “<# GIDB © ERM 45 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 220] - = & | $ \, D y 4 . get gai QE $ a}, à! PE ENS " Là ler Lans fr L per : AT UT % Legend | CT] tes Propose Seau Arms eemr sc Il New D'TM Study Ares Elevation, m x” PE ie. d | |Costai Surge 100 Year RP Flood Depth, = g as 5 16 Hbmeters " Hgn £4 nié: Î \ Le à Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..33 100 Year Return Period Climate Variability, Hazard Frequency and Magnitude Climate Change Variability The Caribbean region has been characterized as among the most vulnerable to climate change and climate extremes. One of the major challenges facing island states is that posed by tropical cyclone events and sea level rise. Sea-level rise greatly impacts human activity near the coastal zone (IPCC, 2007) since in many cases the majority of human settlements, economic activity, infrastructure and services are located at or near the coast and local economies are often reliant on just a few sectors such as tourism and agriculture (Nicholls, 1998). Sea level rise therefore exacerbates the vulnerability of coastal regions to other physical processes (e.g. storm surges, storm waves). Evaluations of global sea level change suggest that the current average of rise is approximately 1.5mm per year meanwhile the global mean surface temperature risen around 0.5° C has been widely accepted. Frequency and Magnitude The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) indicates that the frequency of the most intense storms and associated storm surges or coastal floods is more likely than not to increase by more than +10% (IPCC 2013, AR5), while the annual frequency of tropical cyclones and associated storm surges or coastal floods are projected to decrease or remain relatively unchanged for the North Atlantic. This suggests no major change in the frequency of hurricanes and associated storm surges or coastal floods in North Atlantic region comprising Haiti. The SRES scenario A1B for study area of Haïti suggests that the sea level rise are projected to increase by small magnitude of 0.35 m over the projected for the 20405 relative to the 1960-1990 baseline. These projected changes have applied to estimated water surface elevations over the return period to develop coastal flood hazard maps for Haiti that reflect projected climate change scenarios. > ERGING — Le “6 BIDB Miatiee ERM 46 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 221] The ‘estimated maximum depth of flooding, including the projected climate change scenario, are compared to estimated maximum flood depth without climate change for Haïti and are outlined in Table AError! No text of specified style in document..20. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..20 Coastal Flood Depth with Climate Change a Estimated Maximum Depth of Estimated Maximum Depth of Flooding with Return Period R B Flooding, m Climate Change, m Results Minor changes in sea level rise are represented on the extent of flooding. The difference between the total area of the surface of the water (inundation) for all normal return period events (from 10 year to 100 year) and the water surface with the projection scenario of climate change (i.e. Projection with Climate Change for all return period events) are presented in Table AError! No text of specified style in document..21 below. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..21 Extent of Coastal Flooding with and without Climate Variability, Km? Flooding Area without CC Flooding Area with CC 100 — Year 134.21 km” 140.79 km” Comparing the areas of the coastal flood inundation area without climate change reveals that the flood area for the 50-year event would be 123.4 km? and the floodplain for the event 100 years would be 134.21 km?. In other words, there is only a slight change (i.e. an 8.8% increase) in the extent of the floodplain for the 100 year event. The comparison between flood zones for events 50 and 100 years with climate change reveals almost the same difference in the flooded area (about 10.2 % increase). À comparison between the return period of 50 years without and with climate change reveals just a 3.6 % increase in the inundation area, while the difference in the floodplain for the event 100 years with and without climate change was 4.9 %. A4.6 Drought Hazard Context Drought manifests itself in many forms. The drought hazard in Haïti results from a combination of erratic rainfall patterns during the two distinct rainy seasons: April-June and October-November. According to the World Bank, El Niño/ ENSO episodes have tended to delay the arrival of the rainy season(s) and create drought conditions! in the country. NATHAT (2012), in a national level hazard assessment, indicated that farmers are reporting longer dry seasons and wetter and shorter rainy seasons. The NATHAT study has also categorized most of the northern coast as being susceptible to drought hazard. The cumulative effects of longer dry periods are crop losses and that more 1 http://www.gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr.org/files/Haiti-2010.pdf +. EMERGING c<#% GIDB sn * \ peu ERM 47 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 222] families are becoming reliant on food assistance during the “hunger season”, which is the three-month period between rainy seasons, in which there is little harvesting and employment opportunities. nest Es | Î (l Î |] } l Î E] Légende | es — + Li —| Lseaitié MNT (msn) "EE ni > Cr ms. ( |Eocm Geurtoe du pays |] 211 8 D n Ls ET + LE 2 " 2e à re ne _ Lee RÉPUBLIQUE D'HAÏN | Re — Le VF — RE he + re pd M * raies en ts L i SR san à EE Ga ons — Us k P 1 . he" sit" ur Susceptibilité à la DS = ‘a WT DE sécheresse Te LH Pot | cd Lürevernei Totevates Manet (0! use CS Ra - il = | pe LE FR pra fe ci. LT 4 D pu pre | Jan : pr Bne Doute termes 1e au … : = = pes | L ER ES ER ES 1 Figure A4.34 Areas Most Likely To Drought And Land Degradation on the island of Haïti Source: NATHAT, 2012 EM-DAT, the OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, reported that during a period of 1960 to 2003, there were seven (7) droughts in Haïti and have indicated where they have located and number of persons affected (See Table A4.22 below). Table A4.22 Droughts in Haiti from 1968-2000 1968 A A A PS A PS ES ES ETS 1984 x) 7 | 45000 EC ES DS A PE PS AE RE ES ES EE [rotal [7 [6 [6 15 15 Te [eo Te [71 nn EMERGING= La 28" GIDB Miatiee ERM 48 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 223] Source: Cartes et etude de risqué, de la vulnerabile et des capacities de response en Haiti; EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database — www.emdat.be — Université catholique de Louvain — Brussels — Belgium. The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) reported in August 2011 that the north and northeast were affected by drought and estimated that major crop yields would be diminished by 20 percent. The FEWS Net furthered detailed what is a recurring phenomenon in the northern coastal plains and reported that “rainfall in wet mountain areas [of the Northeast] has helped spur crop growth and development, while crops in Ferrié, Fort Liberté (except on the Maribaroux plains), Terrier Rouge, Caracol, and Trou-du-Nord have failed due to the drought conditions in these areas, prolonging the lean season, which generally “ends in June. [and that]... virtually the entire northern region has been affected by the drought which delayed the start of the spring planting season, which eventually got underway in June with the onset of the rains...” (FEWS, 2012). Of greater concern to stakeholders is the impact that these short term fluctuations in precipitation will have on the surface and subsurface water supply or the hydrological regime of watersheds that intersect the Northern Development Corridor. It takes longer to recognize the affects of hydrological drought on soil moisture levels, stream flows, as well as in groundwater and reservoir levels. The frequency of hydrological drought is typically measured over the longer term and predicates a need for understanding of both the supply and demand for water. Hydrological drought concerned with the problems associated with deficiencies in precipitation (the supply) and that of competing interests for water access and utilization (the demand). Water availability and access is exacerbated by limited water management infrastructure"? ’ and in an IDB commissioned assessment of environmental resources of the Northern corridor, the American Association of Architects (AIA) maintained that future urban expansion will place increasing pressure on water resources. Future development, the study maintained, will continue to consume agricultural soils. The study furthered that to maintain current levels of food security, promote economic development and improve climate resilience, investments in irrigation and improved drainage would be required (AIA, 2012). It should be noted that the access to water, represents one of the most significant challenges that Haïti faces. The water access issue is influenced by socio-economic, political, developmental and environmental factors and consequently is an issue that is beyond the scope and intent of this study. Determination of Hydrological Drought The assessment of drought in this study will therefore be focused on the influence of precipitation, and how this is coupled with the anticipated impacts of development and climate variability, will impact the current and future water supply. The current and future water balance will be estimated for the two main watersheds that intersect the study region. This study does not attempt to address and factor in the broader environmental, political and socio-economical factors that also play a role in exasperating the problem of water access. The hydrological drought assessment has been done by estimating components of the classical hydrological cycle. The movement of water through the hydrological cycle varies significantly in both time and space. The hydrological cycle emphasizes the four factors of interest to hydrologists: precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface runoff and groundwater. For this analysis, the hydrological models, that developed as part of this study for the flood hazard assessment, along with other conventional methods of hydrological assessment, have been used to assess potential water availability for the watersheds of Grand River Du Nord and Trou Du Nord. Grand Rivere du Nord: The hydrological basin area of Grand Rivere du Nord is estimated to be approximately 611 square kilometers. Through basin delineation and hydrological model development process, fifty-one (51) sub basins were developed for this basin, which also included 25 stream reaches. 1 http:// sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportalb/doc/GFDRRCountryProfiles/ wb_gfdrr_climate_change_country_profile_for_HTI.pdf EMERGING Ka e— tes BIDB : | iristire ERM 49 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 224] Trou du Nord: The basin area of main stream of Trou du Nord is estimated to be approximately 106 square kilometers. Through basin delineation and hydrological model development process in all 11 sub basins were developed for this basin, which also included 5 stream reaches. A water balance model can be considered as a system of equations designed to represent various aspects of the hydrological cycle. À bucket model has been used in the assessment of water balance that considers a unit area (such as watershed) as a bucket, which is filled by the rainfall and emptied by evapotraspiration. When bucket is full, extra water is assumed as deep drainage (usually some part goes to groundwater). This model requires a recorded rainfall and evapotranspiration. A simplified concept of water balance is shown in Figure A4.35. ET Là EX ne: — Q Figure A4.35 Simplified Concept of hydrological water balance Where, S = water storage (as ground water recharge); ET = evapotranspiration; P = rainfall; Q = Surface runoff and base flow. In mathematical terms, the bucket model can be represented as follows. P-ET-Losses = Q+S The losses in the above equation include the interception, infiltration and percolation. The water balance estimates have performed at a daily level. Water availability potentials have been summarized on monthly and annual basis using the outcomes of the daily level calculations. The details of the estimation of various components of the cycle are given below. ° Rainfall: The rainfall is often the largest term in the water balance equation, which forms as major source of input to the system. The historically recorded monthly rainfalls have used in the analysis. As described in the flood hazard assessment and methodology, monthly rainfall data has been distributed to the daily time step. Overall the study area has average annual rainfall of about 1400 mm for current conditions and 1600 mm for climate change. e Evapotranspiration: Evapotranspiration combines the two terms evaporation (generally from the ground surface) and transpiration (generally from the plants). This term forms one of the largest sources of losses from the system. Evapotranspiration can be estimated from meteorological and soil moisture data or measured directly. In this analysis available monthly estimates have been used to derive an average annual evapotranspiration rate. In the study area, it is estimated to be approximately 1600 mm for current climate conditions and approximately 2000 mm considering climate change projections. en EMERGING = La e— te DIDB é À ieaiates ERM 50 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 225] ° Surface Runoff: Surface runoff parameters have been estimated by using the hydrological models to assess surface runoff. Using rainfall and evapotranspiration data, effective rainfall values have been estimated. These effective rainfall values have been used in the estimation of surface runoff and other abstraction losses. The losses include the interception, infiltration and percolation. The annual average surface runoff for the study area has been estimated at 165 mm for current conditions and 141 mm taking in account climate change projections. ° Ground Water Recharge: The losses pertaining to infiltration and percolation are often termed as the abstraction losses. These abstraction losses in the soil strata are divided into two parts 1) baseflow and 2) groundwater recharge. Base flow is the lateral sub-soil flow, which usually joins the surface runoff and is generally a small portion in the hydrological cycle. The vertical component of sub-soil flow, which moves down, is known as ground water recharge. The estimated value of annual average ground water recharge for the study area is 195 mm for current climate conditions and 288 mm considering climate change projections. Figure A4.36 and A4.37 provide a monthly snapshot the parameters of hydrological cycle in study area for current conditions and climate change respectively. The projected climate change estimates also considers the change in land use over years. 200 - À — —+ + — — Ë 950 + A —— n s NA | D En F5 100 —— ni Ps 3 50 - À L IS a = = TS D dt — t—+ ET — Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month —— Rainfall,mm = Runoff, mm = Recharge mm > EFvapotranspiration,mm Figure A4.36 Monthly parameters of hydrological cycle for current conditions EMERGING = La vf BIDB Re Vrétiathes ERM 51 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 226] 250 CMSER — ee -— 200 - — À —À —— — = Le — ES be NAT “a 150 |Y - 72 pe 2 ë | © / 5 100 - IN — + L3 Li AE EE A = Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month — Rainfall, mm = Runoff, MM = Recharge, mm =» EFvapotranspiration, mm Figure A4.37 Monthly parameters of hydrological cycle for climate change projections Water Availability Based on the hydrological estimates as summarized above, the water availability potential has been estimated on volumetric terms (million cubic meters). These numbers have been estimated over the entire study area for current climate conditions and projected to consider climate change. The climate projections suggest the increase in the rainfall by 13% and temperature increase by 2°C. The scenario of climate change also consider changes in land use based on parameters derived from CE3, which introduced sustainable land use planning recommendations as a risk reduction measure. Due to combined impact of climate change and changes in land use, the surface runoff will decrease, ground water recharge will increase. Monthly values of water availability potential are summarized in Table A4.23. In both the cases the ground potential is more than the surface water potential. These numbers are estimates of potential, which needs to be harnessed by developing them. Table A4.23 Monthly variations in water availability potential cé GIDB < Miatiee ERM 52 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 227] Surface Water Groundwater Total Surface Water | Groundwater a : . : : . Total Potential, Potential, Potential, Potential, Potential, Potential, Mm° Mm° Mm° Mm° Mm° Mm° Laon | 08 | wa | m2 | 83 | m9 | 22 | Lay | 60 | wa | wma | 47 | 1584 | 22 | Lun | 08 | 16 | 24 | 05 | 43 | us | Qu | 01 | 03 | 08 | 01 | os | | au | 06 | 08 | 14 | 08 | 08 | 13 | sep | 08 | 14 | 22 | 06 | 16 | 22 | 103.7 1913 1529 28.0 Water Demands Considering the developmental scenarios, two projections have been used to assess water demand in the study area (Table A4.24). Table A4.24 Developmental scenarios for water demands Data Element Climate Change and CE3 Land Use Projections, 2040 Agriculture Land Use (spatial), ha 12630 17,000 Industrial Demand, sq m 67,000 229,000 The water demands include domestic demands from rural and urban areas for domestic uses, industrial demands and agricultural or irrigation requirements. The domestic use includes all of the expected per-capita use by person for activities such as drinking, showers, faucets, and toilets. À demand of 170 liters per day per head and demand of 80 liters per day per head have been estimated for urban and rural areas respectively. Individual demand estimates are based on earlier water assessments conducted for the Haiti (USACE, 1999), and for the industrial park (IDB, 2011). These studies are consistent with projections cited in global studies. Industrial demand is estimated on per square meter basis based on current utilization and future projections for the PIC and other targeted development projects for the study area. This estimates industrial utilization to approximately 100 liters per square meter of the industrial area. Other water use and demands have considered as 250 liter per day per head. The agricultural or irrigation requirements have also been estimated using the crop area, crop coefficients (kc) and evapotranspiration. + in | 244 SIDB | ù" gi: ERM 53 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 228] For the future development projections, climate change projections have been incorporated. All the demands have estimated on the annual time step on volumetric basis. Table A2.25 shows the water demands for the current and future development scenario as contemplated by CE3. Table A4.25- Summary of Water Demands Climate Change and CE3 Land Use Water Demand, Mm3 : 8 n Projections, 2040 Urban Population, M3 Rural Population, M3 (24) 60 industrial Demand, Mm3 Water Use and Demand ,Mm3 Agricultural Demand, Mm3 101.0 163.2 Total Demend,Mm3 112.6 188.8 Water Balance Based on the estimates of water availability potential and demands, overall summary of water balance is shown in Table A4.26. As represented in the table, the current water availability potential is considerably more than the demands. But in future projections, the water availability potential is merely sufficient to meet the projected demands. Table A4.26 Summary of water balance of study area Climate Change and CE3 Land Use Projections, Current 2040 Water Demand, Mm° Urban Population, M” Rural Population, Mm* [24 60 industrial Demand, Mi Water Use and Demand, Mi Agricultural Demand, Mm° 101.0 163.2 Total Demand, Mm° 112.6 188.8 Water Availability Potential, Mm° Surface Water Potential (Runoff), Mn Ground Water Potential (Recharge), Mm° 103.7 152.9 Total Water Potential, Mm° 191.3 228.0 Surplus/Deficit, Mm° Water Surplus, M? The monthly variations in the availability and demand potentials are shown in Figure A4.38 for present day, while Figure A4.39 shows the monthly variation for future growth scenario that takes into consideration climate change. Monthly variation shows that during the dry season of the year, the gap between demand and availability increases as compared to the wet season. À < IN -2#% GIDB in gi: ERM 54 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 229] 45.0 a | | E 35.0 t t = 5 Eee 1 | fe) À [rte | Es À ii je 1 1 | £ 250 - Ï Piel | is £ 200 - a n S N | 43 | eo NN = v £ 100 us —_— “1 er Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month — Available Potential, Mm3 — Demand, Mm3 Figure A4.38 Monthly variation in demand and availability for current conditions 2 0e pal | ENS Em | 8350 Lt | | DT OT 1 [7 Rs LN Se | ES | q 25.0 - _— 8200: - | È A en 5 ( Bol | NO + | 9 5 10.0 7 2. sa L_ | Eur SE 0.0 ET TU TRE + Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month — Available Potential, Mm3 — Demand Mm3 Figure A4.39 Monthly variation in demand and availability with climate change projection From the hydrological drought assessment conducted for study area, it can be concluded that on annual basis, water availability potential is sufficient to meet the current as well as future demands. However, as shown in the Figures A4.38 and A4.39 above, on monthly basis, there is a significant gap between the demand and availability potential particularly during the dry season (June to October) as compared to the wet season. As seen from the figures, during the current and future scenarios, there is a considerable water deficit during the dry period indicating prolonged period of hydrological drought. Climate change and projected growth will reduce the available water stock and make the impacts of prolonged periods of water deficit which is likely to impact agricultural production, further exacerbate food storages, reduce water quality, and increase land degradation. Such impacts will become more pronounced during years with below average rainfall. <# GIDB # EX is ERM 55 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 230] A4.7 References American Institute of Architects, Inter-American Development Bank, USAID / OTI, 2012, Cumulative Impact Assessment For Regional Development In The Cap-Haïtien To Ouanaminthe Urban Corridor accessed at http://www.ute.gouv.ht/caracol/images/stories/docs/Al_CIA_Final_26-08-12.pdf) Bender, M.A., Knutson, T.R., Tuleya, R.E., Sirutis, J.J., Vecchi, G.A., Garner, S.T., Held, I.M. (2010). Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes, Science 327, 454-458, doi:10.1126/science.1180568. Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., Esch, M., Keenlyside, N., Kornblueh, L., LUO, J. J., & Yamagata, T. (2007). How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate?. Tellus A, 59(4), 539-561. Boore D. M., Thompson E. M. and cadet H., (2011), Regional Correlations of VS30 and Velocities Averaged Over Depths Less Than and Greater Than 30 Meters, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 101, No. 6, pp. 3046-3059, December 2011, doi: 10.1785/0120110071 Calais, E. 2001. Vers un projet "Aléa sismique en Haïti". CNRS ; Géosciences Azur. Sophia Antipolis, France. Unpublished report; 11pp. Campbell K., Abrahamson N., Power M. Chiou B., Bozorgnia Y., ShantzT., and Roblee C. (2009), Next Generation Attenuation (Nga) Project: Empirical Ground Motion Prediction Equations For Active Tectonic Regions, Sixth International Conference on Urban Earthquake Engineering, March 3-4, 2009, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan Atlas of Probable Storm Effects in the Caribbean Sea Choi, Y., and J. P. Stewart (2005), “Nonlinear site amplification as function of 30 m shear wave velocity”, Earthquake Spectra, vol.21, no. 1, pp.1-30 Elsner, J. B., Kossin, J. P., & Jagger, T. H. (2008). The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones. Nature, 455(7209), 92-95. Emanuel, K. A. S. Ravela, E. Vivant and C. Risi (2006), A Statistical determinstic approach to hurricane risk assessment,Bull Amer Meteor Soc., 19, 299-314. Famine Early Warning Systems Network, HAITI Food Security Outlook Update, June 2012 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2004. Technical Cooperation Programme. Project Title: Assistance to improve Local Agricultural Emergency Preparedness in Caribbean countries highly prone to hurricane related disasters. E 1 sn * | peu ERM 56 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 231] Frankel A., Harmsen S., Mueller C., Calais E. and Haase J., 2011, Seismic Hazard Maps for Haiti, Earthquake Spectra, Volume 27, No. S1, pages S23-S41 Frankel, A., Mueller, C., Barnhard, T., Leyendecker, E., Wesson, R., Harmsen, S., Klein, F.,Perkins, D., Dickman, N., Hanson,S., and Hopper, M., 2000, USGS national seismic hazard maps: Earthquake Spectra, v. 16, p. 1-19. Frankel, Arthur, Harmsen, Stephen, Mueller, Charles, Calais, Eric, and Haase, Jennifer, 2010, Documentation for initial seismic hazard maps for Haïti: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1067, 12 p. Gualdi, S., Scoccimarro, E., & Navarra, A. (2008). Changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming: Results from a high-resolution coupled general circulation model. Journal of climate, 21(20), 5204-5228. IDB, 2011, Preliminary Hydrological Assessment for the Development of an Industrial Park in Haïti, Prepared for: Inter- American Development Bank Washington, D.C. Prepared by: ENVIRON International Corporation, Washington, D.C. IPCC AR4, 2007, The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC AR5, 2014, IPCC Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Knutson, T.R., Sirutis, J. J., Garner, S. T., Vecchi, G. A. & Held, I. M. (2008). Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nature Geoscience, 1(6), 359-364. Kossin, J. P., Knapp, K.R., Vimont, D. J., Murnane, R. J., & Harper, B. A. (2007). A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends.Geophysical Research Letters, 34(4). Landsea, C. W., Feuer, S., Hagen, À. Glenn, D. A. Sims, J., Perez, R., … & Anderson, N. (2012). A Reanalysis of the 1921-30 Atlantic Hurricane Database*. Journal of Climate, 25(3), 865-885. MARNDR, MPCE, MICT, MDE. 2000. Actes de l'atelier de concertation interministérielle pour la gestion des bassins versants. 120 pp. McCann, W.R., 2006, Estimating the threat of tsunamagenic earthquakes and earthquake induced landslide tsunamis in the Caribbean, in Aurelio, M., and Philip, L., eds., Caribbean tsunami hazard: Singapore, World Scientific Publishing, p. 43-65. Nicholls, R. J. (1998). Assessing erosion of sandy beaches due to sea-level rise. Geological Society, London, Engineering Geology Special Publications,15(1), 71-76. Oouchi, K., Yoshimura, J., Yoshimura, H., Mizuta, R., Kusunoki, S., & Noda, A. (2006). Tropical cyclone climatology in a global-warming climate as simulated in a 20 km-mesh global atmospheric model: Frequency and wind intensity analyses. J.Meteorol.Soc.Jpn, 84(2), 259-276. RMS FAQ: 2010 Haïti Earthquake and Caribbean Earthquake Risk, Accessed at https://support.rms.com/publications/Haïiti_Earthquake_FAQ.pdf E 1 é* | peu ERM 57 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 232] Sandikkaya M.A., Akkar S., and Bard P-Y., (2013), À Nonlinear Site-Amplification Model for the Next Pan-European Ground-Motion Prediction Equations, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 103, No. 1, pp. 19-32, February 2013, doi: 10.1785/0120120008 Schott C., and Schwarz J., (2004), Reliability Of Eurocode 8 Spectra And The Problems Of Their Application To Central European Earthquake Regions, 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, B.C., Canada, August 1-6, 2004, Paper No. 3403 Sugi, M., Murakami, H., & Yoshimura, J. (2009). A reduction in global tropical cyclone frequency due to global warming. Sola, 5(0), 164-167. The World Bank, 1991, Haiti Agricultural Sector Review Report No. 9357-HA United Nations Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) report USACE, 1999, Water Resources Assessment of Haiti, US Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile District and Topographic Engineering Center USAID, 2007, Environmental Vulnerability In Haiti Findings & Recommendations, http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADN816.pdf Vickery, P.J. P.F., Skerij, A.C. Stekley and L.A. Twisdale Jr. 2000, Hurricane wind field model for use in Hurricane Simulations. J Struct Eng 126. 1303-1221. Vickery, P. (2008), Development of Design Wind Speed Maps for the Caribbean for Application with Wind Load Provisions of ASCE 7 ARA Rep. No. 18108-1, Pan American Health Organization, Regional Office for the Americas World Health Organization, Disaster management Programme, 525 23rd Street, NW Washington, DC. Vickery, P. (2012) Design Wind Speeds in the Caribbean. Advances in Hurricane Engineering: pp. 1136-1147. doi: 10.1061/9780784412626.099 Vickery, P.J., 2005. Simple empirical models for estimating the increase in the central pressure of tropical cyclones after landfall along the coastline of the United States. J. Appl. Meteorol. 44, 1807-1826. Wald, D. J., and T. I. Allen (2007). Topographic slope as a proxy for seismic site conditions and amplification, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 97,1379-1395. Wald, D. J. B. Worden, V. Quitoriano, and K. Pankow, (2004). Shake Map Manual: Technical Manual, Users Guide, And Software Guide, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report, in preparation Walling, M, Walter Silva, and Norman Abrahamson (2008). Nonlinear site amplification factors for constraining the NGA Models, Earthquake Spectra 24:1, 243-256 Watson, C. C. and M. E. Johnson. (1999). “Design, Implementation, andOperation of a Modular Integrated Tropical Cyclone Hazard Model,” AMS 23rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Dallas, TX. 2<# GIDB © sn * | iristire ERM 58 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 233] Watson, C. C. Jr. (1995), "The Arbiter of Storms: À High Resolution, GIS-based System for Integrated Storm Hazard Modeling," National Weather Digest, 20, 2-9. en EMERGING = La «5% BIDB A A Sun ERM 59 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 4: HAZARD PROFILES [page 234] APPENDIX 5: Characteristics of Assets Exposed EMERGING — <#* GIDB © NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI Appendix Ke Mais ERM [page 235] A5 CHARACTERISTICS OF ASSETS EXPOSED A5.1 Context The inventory of exposed assets involves understanding the distribution of people, buildings and infrastructure that may be affected by natural phenomena. In the Northern Development Corridor of Haïti, there was not enough detailed information available to carry out a site specific assessment of all buildings, and it was therefore necessary to carry out a rapid field assessment method to estimate the number and distribution of assets in the study area. A review of various reports and geospatial databases was conducted in order to ascertain useful information for understanding land uses and building practices in Haiti, and in the study region. Initially it was perceived that reports and databases would provide information that would be useful for ascertain the distribution buildings and infrastructure and their characteristics. However, much of the information focused on damages that occurred as a result of the 2010 Earthquake and was confined to dense urban areas of the capital. Damage assessment reports, nevertheless, provided useful information to understand building practices. The review of geospatial data helped us to understand land uses, population distribution and density, and the location of critical facilities and infrastructure. Remote sensing data as well as information gathered from a rapid field assessment were utilized to capture priority building information. Within the study area, satellite images are interpreted to understand building density and types for each land use category and administrative boundary. Administrative boundaries (i.e. section communal) were then subdivided based on density of building footprints so as to allow for the definition of an appropriate scale from which to capture inventory elements. This mapping process provided the basis for classifying buildings and for using a suitable classification hierarchy for the capture of a wide range of structures and densities. A rapid field assessment that was conducted in August, 2013 informed the interpretation of remote sensing data and facilitated the classification of buildings into general occupancy classes. Photographic survey was utilized to inform the development of an exposure model so as to incorporate a number of statistical assumptions to calculate the building type (house or apartment), age, structure (wall and roof type, number of stories), construction and to estimate replacement costs. Such an approach is consistent with standard methodologies used to develop exposure models and supports the required inputs for undertaking a probabilistic risk assessment by providing an approximate spatial location of exposed elements for each block subdivision within the section communal. A5.2 Building Base Map for Inventory Assessment Haïti is divided into ten (10) departments. The departments are subdivided into arrondissements, which are further subdivided into communes, which in turn are divided into sections communales. Because the section communales represent too crude of an administrative boundary from which to categorize the built environment to facilitate a mapping of exposed elements and risk, the section communales have been further subdivided into blocks to facilitate analysis at finer level. The block boundaries have been created by overlaying commune boundaries on the remote sensing data in a GIS so as to facilitate an understanding of the density buildings and distribution of different building types throughout the study area. EMERGING Ka à" À iraiaties ERM 1 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 236] ) NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN gd” ve be nr À 5 Eee de } À LED US mene RES À NS HIS" 7 ) l | LA A Eu rw 29 Vase 5 ce Vs LA ==“ RES I € Eee + PE Ne LT ee Del Mo À JMS Cpneené 4 in | PÈRE TN D [à NE) — SE (at -< EL, Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..1 Distribution of block boundaries in the study area Each section communale was divided into multiple blocks by taking into consideration building density and road network. Smaller blocks have been created in the cities where there are higher building densities, while in less dense rural areas larger blocks have been delineated. In most of the cases road lines have been followed for creating blocks boundaries to facilitate a consistent mapping across the study area. The total number of blocks in each section communale. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..1 Number of blocks for each section communale Section Communales No of Blocks RS c<#" GIDB & ERM 2 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 237] A5.3 Building Occupancy Mapping and Distribution The field survey conducted in August 2013 facilitated an understanding of general building distribution in the study area. A building distribution schema was developed to facilitate an understanding of the distribution of buildings and uses. Using remote sensing data, attention was given to densities and texture information to each sub-divided administrative unit (i.e. Block) to identify homogenous land uses where the distribution of buildings would be similar. By using remote sensing data, each block was visually checked to determine the distribution of building types and to identify any anomalies so as to aggregate building information to each block. The development of a building mapping schema, which was informed by field work, allows for a more precise definition of the expected distribution of different types of buildings and infrastructure in the study area. It also informed the distribution of building uses or occupancy. The schema, coupled with building footprints data, facilitated a general understanding of the square area of buildings, which is important for determining the generalized replacement value of each structure. This will facilitate that application of standard construction costs per building type and allow for exposure values to be aggregated by administrative unit. Statistical tools were used to help determine that the final results are in line with the sample data. In addition, the building distribution schema was reviewed graphically in a mapping interface to assure that the results were reasonable. This was an involved process, where generalized distribution was checked against homogenous zones that were investigated in the field, to make sure that the number and distribution of buildings was appropriate. Structure Classification Structural information is an important factor in determining the vulnerability or how likely structures are to fail when they are subjected to hazards, such as wind pressure that exceeds their design. In order to conduct basic analyses and gather information useful to determine general loss estimates, structural engineers and planners categorized buildings into the eight (8) different structure types, which are similar to those identified by Institut Haïtien de Statistique et d'Informatique (IHSI) of the Ministère de l'Economie et des Finances. This was done to capture the general features of the structures of the buildings according to local current construction practices. The models of the different types of infrastructure were determined based on experience with the typical construction of Haiti. The basic structural systems were grouped according to the following general construction: reinforced concrete, masonry structure, unreinforced masonry, and earthen. The field analysis, however, indicated that there was a need to slightly modify building classifications outlined by the IHSI. A new structure distribution schema (shown in Table AError! No text of specified style in document..2 below) was developed for the Northern Development Corridor, which were reviewed and verified by architects and civil engineers familiar with the study area. +. EMERGING Ka = x GIDB = À irériatirs ERM 3 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 238] Table AError! No text of specified style in document..2 Structure Classification Matrix in Northern Development Corridor of Haïti Low Rise ST-1 Poor 5-10 yrs 1 Reinforced Wood Mass Reinforced Columns, block Frame, Masonry/ Concrete in-fill Corrugated Rubble Metal Low Rise ST-2 Moderate | 5-10 yrs 1 Reinforced Concrete Concrete Slab Reinforced Columns, block Slab Concrete in-fill Mid Rise ST-3 Poor 5-10 yrs 2 Reinforced Concrete Mass Reinforced Columns, block Slab Masonry/ Concrete in-fill Rubble Mid Rise ST-4 Moderate | 5-10 yrs 2/3 Reinforced Concrete Concrete Slab Reinforced Columns, block Slab Concrete in-fill Low Rise Steel ST-5 Good 1-5 yrs 1 Slab on Grade Concrete Concrete Slab Frame Slab Mid Rise Steel ST-6 Good 1-5 yrs 2/3 Slab on Grade Concrete Concrete Slab Frame Slab Low Rise ST-7 Moderate | 20 Yrs+ 1 Mass Masonry Wood Mass Masonry Frame, Masonry/ Corrugated Rubble Metal Mid Rise ST-8 Moderate | 20 Yrs+ 2/3 Mass Masonry/ Wood Mass Masonry Concrete Frame, Masonry/ Corrugated Rubble Metal Wattle and ST-9 Poor 20 Yrs + 1 Earth, covered Wood Earth/Rock Daub/Adobe with light Frame, concrete plaster | Corrugated Metal Each building type has a unique and distinct behavior, due to a number of factors including the behavior of the material, height, pre and post disaster incorporation of new building requirements, and quality of prevalent construction practices. Building Replacement Values To relate the number of building and occupancy classes to specific building types, a two-dimensional matrix was developed. It allowed project team members to understand the distribution of identified building types for a specific occupancy class for each block. To estimate replacement values for buildings in each block, local construction parameters were developed by a review of local construction practitioners (i.e. architects, engineers) to understand the construction cost (USD/m2) for the following occupancy classes and are provided in ……. EMERGING La 6 BIDB de” | leériatire ERM 4 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 239] Table AError! No text of specified style in document..3. . EMERGING = .<#% GIDB © Re À ee ERM 5 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 240] Table AError! No text of specified style in document..3 Construction Costs, Occupancy Type Average Construction Cost Occupancy Class . Estimates (USD/M°) Residential (formal) $800 to $1100 Housing that goes through the formalities of architecture plans, permits, etc. Residential $600 to $800 Housing that would be self-built or with the help of skilled personal (informal 1) Residential $450 to $500 Housing that would be self-built without help of skilled personal (informal 2) Residential (international $800 to $1,200 Housing that has been built or USAID or other international donors donor) This may include construction for commercial enterprises which Commercial $1000 follows formal construction process of developing architectural plans and permits and is constructed by professional contractors. Only construction costs required. This may include construction for industrial enterprises (i.e. . A agricultural processing facilities), which will follows formal Industrial (outside : . . A ark) $1000 construction process of developing architectural plans and permits p and is constructed by professional contractors. Only construction costs required Industrial (PIC) $1200 Construction costs for the development of industrial production facilities inside the park. The identification and understanding of construction parameters as well as field work assisted in the determination of values for urbanized or built-up areas by occupancy class. Image analysis informed a determination of building counts for certain building type clusters found in rural areas. Inventory Aggregation and Valuation This methodology facilitates the development of occupancy-building type mapping schemes which help determine the distribution and aggregate exposure for general building stock. Specific values estimates and site specific geospatial data were collected to understand specific exposure values for infrastructure and critical facilities. General Building Stock The composition of the general building stock (i.e. residential, commercial and industrial building stock) was therefore aggregated to the given block boundary. As previously described, its distribution was determined by field work and careful review of imagery so as to provide the most accurate distribution of building types for block boundary. EMERGING Ka e—< tx DIDB é* À irériatirs ERM 6 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 241] cn reuw rca ram com Fu D ina Legend MRenidentiai Exposure Vaiue in USD 0-2289,22 [LE 6372370 + 13,757, 870 13,78t,871 - 23482 008 2260008 - 47.134871 EE me ee Fe == mm pur En Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..2 Distribution and Exposure Values of Residential Buildings in the Area of Study em ra io uw arm ni , : < É TE Legend Commercial Exposure Value USD 0-453973 [is assera. 1238622 dure vrund [RM 12586-25079 2.544.737 - 5,08 .387 6.888388 » 19,007,188 a, Er me mr pu re 5 ne Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..3 Distribution and Exposure Values of Commercial Buildings in the Area of Study “<#" GIDB ERM 7 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 242] Da eg ve rem ére TETE tri : 2 « FR s > Les dur ses ir Legend Industrial Exposuro Made in USD | 0-04 DIN 420,455 2085580 TITES 22 2.068.860 - 6.012 620 6.612,62 -23,780.044 M: 755245 00 5 4 _— Cr ne me Te mes pe Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..A4 Distribution and Exposure Values of Industrial Buildings in the Area of Study This analysis, which is consistent with HAZUS-MH Level 2 Analysis', was conducted using a Geographic Information System, and Table A5.4 presents the results which were aggregated for both the Commune (Administrative Level 3) and Section Commune (Administrative Level 4) administrative boundaries in the Northern Development Corridor. L'Atthis point, some basic background information about methodology utilized to develop the inventory. The methodology undertaken is undertaken is consistent with methodologies used for HAZUS-MH. There can be three levels dependent on the amount of data that is available: Level 1 analyses use default data that has been assembled for HAZUS-MH from US national databases, which is not applicable outside the United States. This data provides a basic estimate of exposure that is useful for broad scale planning efforts. Level 2 analyses involve the input of more detailed data about local conditions, building stocks etc. and yields correspondingly more detailed and useful results. Likewise, Level 3 analyses provide the most accurate estimates of losses but require detailed engineering and physical conditions data to customize results at a level that is not clearly warranted by this type of study. je : ERGING — v<ér GIDB listes ERM 8 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 243] Table AError! No text of specified style in document..4 Economic value (Million USD) for General Building Stock, by Occupancy types Commune/Section Residential Commercial Industrial Commune (Million USD) (Million USD) (Million USD) RE ES EE PE ES RE PS EE PE ES RE ES ES PE ES Facilities and Infrastructure For purposes of this study, the following three part definition of critical facilities and infrastructure has been applied: Critical Facilities - are those facilities that provide services to the community and should be functional after a hazard event. They include: e Hospitals o Hospitals (Level 1 - Major Medical Facility) o Hospitals (Level 2 - Medical Facility/Clinic) o Hospital (Level 3 — Rural Clinic) + Education o Kindergarten o Primary o College o University Transportation Infrastructure - enables the movement of goods, particularly goods and emergency relief supplies. They include: + Roads, km (Highway) + Roads, km (Secondary) + Roads, km (Tertiary) + Bridges Utilities and Infrastructure - are facilities that, if damaged, could have far-reaching consequences for the environment. They include: e Electric Infrastructure ……. EMERGING La ie” À irériatirs ERM 9 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 244] o Electric Power Plant o Electric Lines, km e Water Infrastructure o Water Lines, o Water Pumping Stations, o Reservoirs/Catchment, and o Wells + Waste Water Infrastructure o Culverts, o Waste Water Treatment Plants Facilities and infrastructure have been categorized facilities and infrastructure by their structural characteristics relevant to vulnerability to the prominent hazards identified in the study. Replacement and content values for facilities were evaluated based on field inspections which allowed for approximation building area and construction cost (i.e. exposure) by facility type or infrastructure class. Facility and infrastructure costs were informed by civil engineers familiar with construction practices in Haïti. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..5 Estimated Value of Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Class kindergamen 9 | ai unes 5 | mms | | “ | leériatire ERM 10 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 245] APPENDIX 6: Impacts and Losses EMERGING — NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI Appendix << latin ERM [page 246] A6 IMPACTS AND LOSSES A6.1 Methodology This section presents an estimate of the losses attributable to each hazard. The findings can be used to support local and regional planners understanding of the potential impacts of each hazard and allow a comparison of hazards by quantifying potential impacts. The application of a risk assessment methodology has resulted in an approximation of risk. These estimates should be used to understand relative risk from hazards and potential losses; however it is important to understand that uncertainties are inherent in any loss estimation methodology, arising in part from incomplete scientific knowledge concerning natural hazards and their effects on the built environment. Uncertainties also result from approximations and simplifications that are necessary for a comprehensive analysis (such as abbreviated inventories, and model parameters such as precipitation data or economic parameters). Risk Metrics The economic loss results are presented here using three risk indicators: e Probable Maximum Loss (PML), which provides an estimate of losses that are likely to occur, considering existing mitigation features, due to a single hazard event; e _ Loss Exceedance Curve which plots the consequences (losses) against the probability for different events with different return periods; and e Average Annualized Loss (AAL), which is the estimated long-term value of losses to assets in any single year Within the study area. By annualizing estimated losses, we understand historic patterns of events so as to provide a balanced assessment of risk. The AAL is the summation of products of event losses and event occurrence probabilities for all stochastic events in a loss model and is expressed as: Average Annual Losses= };P;L; The use of the annualized losses approach has two primary benefits, including: the ability to assess potential losses from all future disasters; and provides an objective means to evaluate mitigation alternatives. Risk Mapping The risk metrics described above, particularly, the AAL, can be used to provide an understanding of the spatial extent of losses and help to identify and prioritize the urban areas or localities that are under risk. The street light indicator methodology, where the colors on the map coincide with the level of risk, has been used to map risk: By mapping risk at the block level, stakeholders have a better understanding of where potential losses will be the highest and where monies should be allocated for risk reduction. All the areas and exposure categories that have a high and very high risk are automatic choices for risk reduction measures. …. EMERGING — Le Éd À ions ERM 1 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 247] A6.2 Earthquake Hazard Earthquakes have the potential to cause damages due to waves that are produced by a release of energy through the earth. The way the earth responds to the energy of an earthquake depends on the geology of the area. Shaking may not cause damage to the ground itself, but may cause significant damage to structures including infrastructure and lifelines. The expected intensity of an earthquake in the area is significant with an expected peak ground acceleration (PGA in g) with site amplification varying from 0.244 to 0.448 for 475 years return period and 0.406 to 0.853 (in g) for 2500 year return period. The Northern Development Corridor of Haiti is almost entirely comprised of alluvial deposits (i.e. areas of wet sand or silt), which makes it susceptible to liquefaction ( i.e. where the ground could be shaken enough that the pressure of the water in the soil builds up to make it liquefy). In addition to physical geography, the potential impacts of the earthquakes in northern Haiti are tied to the construction practices and materials. The pattern of construction that is found throughout the areas is the prevalent factor influencing the physical vulnerability of the area (i.e. structural damages). The majority of the buildings are low rise structures (i.e. one story) constructed out of one of four materials: concrete/blocks, earthen materials, ‘clisse’ (translated “woven wood mats”), or bricks/rocks. The construction of walls and flooring is with little or no reinforcement, which are the key factors that influenced the collapse of numerous buildings and loss of life during the catastrophic seismic event in 2010. Estimated Probable Losses The estimates for the earthquake hazard are provided in Table AError! No text of specified style in document..1 below, and represent the maximum probable losses for general occupancy classes. Losses are presented for two return periods. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..1 Probable Maximum Losses (PML) for Earthquake Hazard Loss (106 USD) Return Period Years — Reséeme | Commercat | mausiar | 2500 1,071.5 194.7 161.0 … EMERGING QE ce &* BIDB Éd À iraiaties ERM 2 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 248] Loss Exceedence and Average Annual Losses Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..1 depicts the Loss Exceedance Curve and the AAL for the earthquake hazard in the study region, and Figures A6.2-A6.4 show the corresponding AAL maps for Earthquake Hazard. LEC, Residential LEC, Commercial 0,003 2.003 î dou \ Î 1,007 \ É o002 \ Ô 0002 \ $ \ F \ € ow % 100 $ no \ Ë 001 \ 5 ).001 \ 5 1.001 \ 1006 0,006 ü 500 1000 1,500 n] En 100 350 200 zsû Milan Millions Loss (USD) Loss (USD) LEC, Industrial 2.003 $ 1,007 \ F4 \ 8 0063 \ r \ É 1,001 à 3,006 [ol ] 100 150 +2 Millions Loss (US0) Average Annual Losses (AAL) USDS x10%6 | %deExposure | USDS x 106 % de Exposure USD$ x 106 | | Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..1 Loss Exceedance Curve and the AAL for Earthquake Hazard +. EMERGING = Le «#% BIDB < À ieaiaties ERM 3 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 249] a EE aa te c i : AN) 4 ns «à l | Annuat Average Lesses (USD) Earthquake . Resident mm: MR 56 00 DIN ce -1806) 18062-25288 mxe-T746 —— ! M M Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..2 Risk Map: AAL for Earthquake Hazard, Residential mure ei EE © “ Legend Annua Average Losses (USD) Earthquake - Coenemerchal R : L'EST M xour 4408 LEE] Méa-72M4 nes ne | Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..3 Risk Map: AAL for Earthquake Hazard, Commercial = = ce GIDB | | ERM 4 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 250] sc es ur A: x ZE —+— Lo ru RE à si | ï | | | 5 | | | | . > Lure se —_—_—_—_+— 7 Legend Annual Average L.cs£es (USD) | Eanhqueke Industriat em: AR so -2774 2274-7482 ae 22-270 | | | PA à pci ————— + — 9088 items | [7 [ET] coursy Beundeny | | FE TE ES TE or Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..4 Risk Map: AAL for Earthquake Hazard, Industrial Losses to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Table AError! No text of specified style in document..2 depicts critical facilities and infrastructure losses for the earthquake hazard. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..2 Losses to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure for Earthquake Hazard Number of Facility/Infrastructure Type Facilities, 475 Year 2500 Year Class Critical Faites [ui | x uni] x | Hospitals (Level 1 - Major Medical Facility) | 4 2,092,581 31.7% 3,390,100 51.4% Hospitals (Level 2 - Medical Facility/Clinic) 879,788 35.3% 1,339,951 53.7% Hospital ( Level 3 — Rural Clinic) 69,121 16.3% 112,487 26.5% College | 4 931,367 40.8% 1,322,628 57.9% #4 GIDB Ts Vétiatiee ERM 5 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 251] Electric Power Plant 141,774,845 35.4% 234,249,808 58.6% Electric Lines, km 96,399 356,803 13.7% Water Pumping Stations 85,578 175,047 14.3% Reseviors/Catchment 153,617 10.2% 356,672 23.8% Waste Water Treatment Plants 591,690 16.4% 1,024,518 28.5% A6.3 Hurricane Hazard The interplay of factors such as wind speed, wind direction, storm duration makes it quite difficult to predict the impact of a hurricane, nevertheless, the expected intensity of a hurricane in the area is significant with an expected 124 mph wind speed for three second gusts for a height of 10 meters for a flat terrain for 100 year return period and 156 mph for a 700 year return period. With this level of expected intensity, the expected damages to housing, institutional buildings and infrastructure is expected to extensive. The key variable for defining the vulnerability to the wind hazard in Northern Development Corridor of Haiti is the quality of construction, of which the majority of construction takes place without proper architectural and engineering oversight. Residential construction, in particular, is especially vulnerable with the roofs being the most susceptible component to damages. Residential housing in both rural and urban areas either had roof constructed of inadequate materials or had poor connections to walls making a majority of residential structures vulnerable to heavy wind gusts associated with hurricanes. Institutional buildings such as local government offices and industrial structures were found to be engineered a bit better and will most probably respond better, but may still experience extensive damages due to heavy wind loads or gusts associated with hurricanes. Estimated Probable Losses, Hurricane Hazard The estimates for the hurricane hazard are provided in Table Error! No text of specified style in document..3 below, and represent the maximum probable losses for general occupancy classes. Losses are presented for four return periods. Table Error! No text of specified style in document..3 Probable Maximum Losses (PML) for Hurricane Hazard Loss ( 1016 USD) Return Period Years Residential | commercial | Industrial | {so | 587 | aa | 10 [200 | 927 | sa | 39 2392 1700 z860 | 600 | 22 | … EMERGING La #5 GIDB in * | ieériatire ERM 6 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 252] Loss Exceedance Curve and the AAL Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..5 depicts the Loss Exceedance Curve and the AAL for the hurricane hazard in the study region, and Figures A6.6-A6.8 show the corresponding AAL maps for Hurricane Hazard. Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..5 Loss Exceedance Curve and the AAL for Hurricane Hazard LEC, Residential LEC, Commercial E E = db = 010 Î 0.015 \ Î 0.05 | F \ F: \ Ë£ ao1o \ £ ao N H Re H > 2 0006 me — ÿ 0005 ä = ä 1,000 = 1,000 _— nr] i00 200 100 100 500 ni] 20 40 co 80 tillions Millions Loss {U5D) Loss (SO) LEC, Industrial z £ do î i | so È 5 1.00% > IE | 3.000 Millions Less (US) Average Annual Losses (AAL) USDS x 1016 % de Exposure USDS x 1016 % de Exposure USDS x 1016 % de Exposure +. EMERGING = Le «#% BIDB < À ee ERM 7 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 253] "UE | à = sh) —— AT s w k : ne Legend Anmuai Average Losses (USD) Hurricane - Res kdesatiat L_ LE LEA (D titan LEE CS L_ ECS = —% = EI | s JNRE : | $ DKlondtens | Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..6 Risk Map: AAL for Hurricane Hazard, Residential — # Fi TR ? ET = fs] ?à où + " 4 SPA L Là si) à 2 | | À Ca Legend Annual Average Losses (USD) Hurricane - Commesical AR cocon 7507 L_Æcr LEE] JON 1000233492 TION MAIN. TIABUMII IAE 9344 - GS 15308 — — uns ET cas, Us. % $ LLUOP PTS Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..7 Risk Map: AAL for Hurricane Hazard, Commercial #5 GIDB © | ERM 8 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 254] ul ca ee Eu maees | _. 4 Dan —— o Ge 5 PR nd) res - | LA a | EE — a se ee | Legend Annual Average Losses (USD} Hurricane - Induestriel nc en 10-40 AS ‘eo - 2252 M 222-100 | LL LS — n— F] F2 TU #Kiomeers ©] Coustry Sounsary = ge pre res Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..8 Risk Map: AAL for Hurricane Hazard, Industrial Losses to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Table AError! No text of specified style in document..4 depicts critical facilities and infrastructure losses for the hurricane hazard. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..4 Losses to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure for the Hurricane Hazard Facility/Infrastructure Type Number of 100 Year 700 Year 1700 Year Facilities/ Class CétialFadties | | uspaons | % | uspaon | % | usouor | x | Hospitals (Level 1- Major la | 238,272 882,309 13.4% | 1,533,785 | 23.2% Hospitals (Level 2 - Medical 89,594 333,592 13.4% | 579,908 23.2% Hospital ( Level 3 — Rural Clinic) 15,495 58,414 13.8% 98,553 23.2% College la | 82,889 305,633 13.4% | 531,306 23.2% 28 GIDB s ERM 9 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 255] 55 (747m) 4,862,519 | 29.6% | 10,555,678 | 64.2% | 13,100,210 | 79.7% Electric Power Plant 118,632,228 | 29.7% | 256,769,64 | 64.2% | 318,666,06 | 79.7% Electric Lines, km 765,519 29.3% | 1,502,118 | 57.6% | 1,710,287 | 65.5% RS waters tm | a | | 00% | | 006 | | 00 | Water Pumping Stations 89,294 327,630 26.7% 569,544 46.5% Reseviors/Catchment 42,009 150,442 10.0% 261,525 17.4% nes 8 0x | À 006 | | | Waste Water Treatment Plants 89,294 327,630 569,544 15.8% A6.4 Flood Hazard There are several factors that must be emphasized in regards to flooding in the Northern Development Corridor of Haiti. They relate to the precipitation data used to model the flood hazard, the surrounding environmental degradation that increases overland flows and the increasing population which has put pressure on the existing storm water drainage infrastructure. As outlined in the section above, the lack of reliable 24 hour precipitation data in flood hazard model predicated the need to rely on a limited 24-hour intensity data and monthly rainfall data to global models (i.e. Santa Clara University). This facilitated an approximation to understand flows in the hydrological model, but also introduces a high degree of uncertainty in the analysis of risk. The results show that the flooding hazard is quite significant in the study area and that with climate change the average flood depth will increase by about 0.23 m (23 cm) across all return periods. The expected flood depth for a 100 year flood event is expected to be 10.17m, which is significant given the flat terrain of the majority of the study area. Flooding must also be viewed in the context of environmental degradation occurring throughout Haiti which has resulted from deforestation. This has resulted in an increase in flood event frequency due to increasing volumes of overland flows. The combination of hillside degradation and urban development has reduced infiltration. The interplay of these factors has placed strains on existing drainage infrastructure, which are inadequate for population densities in urban areas and/or not present in rural areas. Urban drainage infrastructure is susceptible to blockage from an inflow of both earthen and man-made debris (garbage). Such debris inflows have resulted in blockages and/or increased and prolonged flooding in urban areas. In rural areas, the lack of drainage infrastructure or riverine stabilizers has resulted in erosion of river banks during high magnitude rainfall events and furthers siltation, blockage or overflow where infrastructure is in place. Therefore, it is likely given the interplay of these factors that flooding will become a bigger problem unless storm water drainage infrastructure is improved to increase infiltration and alleviate flash flooding problems. À < IN sn * gi: ERM 10 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 256] Estimated Probable Losses, Flood Hazard The estimates for the flood hazard are provided in Table AError! No text of specified style in document..s below, and represent the maximum probable losses for general occupancy classes. Losses are presented for six return periods. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..5 Probable Maximum Losses (PML) for the Flood Hazard Loss ( 1016 USD) 5 | 47 | 08 | 04 | Lao | 55 | 09 | os | Las | 67 | 11 | 06 | so | 72 | 12 | os | [oo | 80 | 13 | 10 | Loss Exceedance Curve and the AAL Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..9 depicts the Loss Exceedance Curve and the AAL for the flood hazard in the study region, and Figures A6.10-A6.12 show the corresponding AAL maps for the Flood Hazard. LEC, Residential LEC, Commercial # O0 \ * oo È Ô200 " È 0200 b | 2 ï £ n 10 : ac 1h 04 vs TA] 6 12 14 Millions Millions Lots (USD) Less (USD) LEC, Industrial > 0500 \ H \ < où \ £ \ ë 3 100 K = | ot 0.2 DA 1.6 LE Lt i Millions Less LUSD) Average Annual Losses (AAL) [Residential —_ [Commerdl [mdwmal USDS x 1016 % de Exposure USDS x 1016 % de Exposure USDS x 1016 % de Exposure +. EMERGING = c<#% GIDB é* À iraiaties ERM 11 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 257] 0.092% 0.095% 0.058% Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..9 Loss Exceedance Curve and the AAL for the Flood Hazard on + eme —% AB À w | L A —4} En = | Y Legend Annuat Average Losses (USD) Flood. Residentist | am: L _ESE TS jo re 60 182 ' LL AL) ER Laerees TT NE 7 OKiomtes : 2 Coutiry Dourdan L ñ F- Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..10 Risk Map: AAL for Flooding Hazard, Residential #5 GIDB © | ERM 12 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 258] mi me F == 5 5 ‘4 | 1 AA P — Ÿ D | | Ee Legend Annual Average Losses (USD) FlocC omemesrciah mm: RE 0-57 On 1575 seen Séét-14879 (RE 40 est : mers 2 ss Enrey | S Clones Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..11 Risk Map: AAL for Flooding Hazard, Commercial rs ae sure LS 2  (A ARR , s'— . “. © Legend Average Losses (USD) Food Initustrial | In en m2 2571-5400 Las-1115) tiss-520 Ë (1 Courem Bounty #5 GIDB © | ERM 13 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 259] Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..12 Risk Map: AAL for Flooding Hazard, Industrial Losses to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Table AError! No text of specified style in document..6 depicts critical facilities and infrastructure losses for the flood hazard. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..6 Losses to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure for the Flood Hazard Facilities/ Class nil Foires | | wo | x [uso | x [une] x Hospital (Level 1 ajor mega | 4 | | 00% | | 00 | | om | Hospital (Level 2=mecient | 16 | | 00 | | 00 | | om | Hospital (Level ura img | 5 | | 00 | | 00 | | om | ximdergamen | 0 | | 00 | | 00 | | om cotege 8 À À où | | 00 | | om univers 0 À où | | 00 | | 0% rnsportin prete | one em remamy | usa | 50 | oo | 58 | oo | 60 | o0x | rgges | sa |] | 6 | | co | | pub Serie mprsmure |] | | | PS PS PS PS leve Power plane | 1] | 006 | | 00 | | 00 | Elcvietines km | 29 | 70 | comm | 78 | oo0:0% | # | oo | water master] | eseviorfcatenment | 3] | | | 0m | | 00 | ns 6 | | co | waste maermprstnure |] | | | cuves | | | 006 | | 00 | | 00 | « | leériatire ERM 14 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 260] A6.5 Coastal Flood Hazard The Northern Development Corridor is most likely to be affected by a combined effect of storm surges and wave action associated with hurricanes and strong winds as indicated by the Total Arbiter of Storms (TAOS) hazard modeling system. The TAOS results combined with climate change suggests that the expected estimated water surface elevations (i.e. maximum depth of flooding) for a 50 year return period is expected to be 5.35 m, while the projected estimated water surface elevations for a 100 year return period is expected to be 6.15 m. These results clearly show that there will be significant impact to coastal developments and that the flooding could occur up to +1000 m inland impacting - population, agriculture, industry and infrastructure. Coastal flooding will cause disruption of settlements and may inhibit the movement of persons. In coastal settlements such as Limonade du Mer and Caracol the situation will become dire, especially as drainage systems, which are already under stress, are overwhelmed by a combination of water from coastal surges and waves and accumulation of inland flows associated with storms. Therefore, it is likely that coastal flooding will become a bigger problem if settlements in high hazards areas continue to grow and drainage systems are not improved. Estimated Probable Losses, Coastal Flood Hazard The estimates for the flood hazard are provided in Table A6.7 below, and represent the maximum probable losses for general occupancy classes. Losses are presented for four return periods. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..7 Probable Maximum Losses (PML) for the Coastal Flood Hazard Loss ( 1016 USD) bo | 639 | es | a | Loss Exceedance Curve and the AAL Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..13 depicts the Loss Exceedance Curve and the AAL for the Coastal Flood Hazard in the study region, and Figures A6.14-A6.16 show the corresponding AAL maps for the Coastal Flood Hazard. LEC, Residential LEC, Commercial £ 0100 & £ 0100 * 3 4.080 \ 3 4.080 + L ob \ L ob \ Ë \ Ë k 1.006 ÿ. 006 Milligers Milligers Loss (USD| Loss (USD! LEC, Industrial +. EMERGING — Ka «5% BIDB * À irniaties ERM 15 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 261] 120 T + £ 0100 | f i i i f gbsu : | } } | | 1020 | ! } Ï - 6006 ! | L | ! : û 1 à 3 4 s ë Millioers Loss (LISD} Residential | Commercial "2" {industrial | ['USDS x 106] %deExposure | USD$x 106 | % de Exposure | USDS x 1096 7] | 0.209% [0.6 [010% 0.075% Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..13 Loss Exceedance Curve and the AAL for Coastal Flood Hazard . mn capes “ s | = : et u Legend Annual Average Losses (USD) Coastai Flooding - Hesidertiat [__ Tr ES ©2022 an 220.01 L__EXHRL Er" | —alyéene — DÉS een | ET Courir Gounéaer F a pa Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..14 Risk Map: AAL for Coastal Flooding Hazard, Residential | ERM 16 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 262] = a : | + lzx- EE) à \ su w r A | sde TF SA Fa ! == ue cr a Legend Annual Average Losses (USD) |Coastal Fiooding - Camenerciet OR : 2 L'ELRE] F528-M7SE l OR sr 55e | De 22800 —#l Ce. un ’ en = em 1 dE PE | 10 Kiometers Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..15 Risk Map: AAL for Coastal Flooding Hazard, Commercial re ve cn fé EE — == fsb) Ÿ (A N/ ee 16 | x % NX 4 DES > — Et | ÿ Legend Annual Average Losses (USD) Coastat Flouding - Imbustria en es 1:10 | ON 1400-32 22-218 | | 2Hs-asn _ DEEE LUS — TS | | [ SKiomaes T ": 3 LE v## DIDB > | ERM 17 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 263] Figure AError! No text of specified style in document..16 Risk Map: AAL for Coastal Flooding Hazard, Industrial Losses to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Table AError! No text of specified style in document..8 depicts critical facilities and infrastructure losses for the Coastal Flood Hazard. Table AError! No text of specified style in document..8 Losses to Critical Facilities and Infrastructure for the Coastal Flood Hazard Facilities/Class create | Juge |# | Hospitas Level 1 Major edit Fac | à | lo | Hndergamen [0 Jumus aux colge a | lo | ES TE ransportionmfrsteure | | Ro em (High | 20 | lo | one km (Secondary [an | low ages | ssca7metn | oo pub Service Imfrasteure | À | RÉ S lc Poer plane | | lo | ES TE RS PS water Pumping tons [7 | lo | Resevor/Gatehmen [1 | lo | PS A ES FE waste water rrestment Pants [1 Jo “ | leériatire ERM 18 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 264] A6.6 Drought Hazard Drought has been estimated using a hydrological model to obtain water balance of two major watersheds, and has sought to delineate the watershed and obtain the drainage and precipitation characteristics, including evaporation and outflows so as to determine water balance in the study area, which is primarily focused on understanding current and future water utilization demandés. An impact assessment of the drought hazard was not pursued as part of the study. The assessment of drought is concerned rather with the capacity of the current water system to store, accumulate and release ample water for current and future demands, incorporating the impact of climate change. All things considered, water shortage by hydrological droughts combined with growing water demand could lead to increasing water stock reduction and negatively impact agriculture, including cultivation of land and grazing. Food production will be one strain on water as will growth of urban settlements. Climate change plays into the equation as land use changes due to urbanization will increase evaporation and surface and subsurface water discharge, thus further decreasing water supply. It is also necessary to note that changes in water availability, both increases as well as decreases, can affect water quality. Increased water availability, especially through heavy rainfall, can lead to increased suspended matter in water bodies, as well as a washing out of contaminants (e.g. fertilizer, toxins) into water and groundwater. EMERGING = La w—< tes BIDB aise ERM 19 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 6: LOSS ESTIMATION [page 265] APPENDIX 7: Restrictions Maps EMERGING — <# GIDB © NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI Appendix << lets ERM [page 266] Figure A7.1 - Weighted Impact of Natural Hazards Risk: Flooding and Seismic Dane Fc 208 3 1: \ a , f " A L Î ke nd ; se j { /) [a ? a 4 h [ER y < f , À È, f ; Î \ # $ 1 CU PA 1 | j * Me Te 2 $ 3 { \ | F] Es: t 4 # i J à. CL 3 et $ pd # ñ 3 os E y ? { t $ b 1 Te … » * À >. Î é \, ‘A \ f ee 3, fre Ke x « . ï Î “ N | a Î À \ à f 3 H % à et (— 7 #1 H \ = 1 1 f } KA re , l ( ) { 4 1 U + Lu] 25 $ 10 En com _ DESNEE :.:3 Limite commune ie] __ Recif corallien Less restricted Completely restricted MN Océan Atlantique Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. [page 267] Figure A7.2 Restriction factors: Topography and slopes > , 7 nn Ÿ 7" nn Mt 1 ; c- ll : _—. - D ‘ A # } - > | \ Ï | + $ IP d [+ p:<5 Eu | F P” + & LA 2 À » l 1 21 . PA ., L _ pa 77. . re, # Cr 4 | Re e Q , * L x? 1 > * - di n f * > L : CL” ai ' ‘ : ALAN E , ; À si - 3 Q LV + ; tes LL : Lerie core e come [ELLES EE 21 Comghetnt y redtP bent un (xéor hisetape [page 268] Figure A7.3 Restriction factors: Hydric System -— Superficial Water Le + c LÉ. " Le D a md}. : j 4 en, 7 Le ° «1 # < et se F PR L. | “ > É ES Le: sis ra Là L E CS PTS 2 os DRE 7 D Led! sut are Loch BTE] CCC TEE = Ccéss Alterique mu [page 269] Figure A7.4 Restriction factors: Strategic Ecosystems and Protected Areas Le » y. Ci LT | « à / 9 Et di” PNE.: < d : | : Fr LE #1 | \ , L La : ÿ aa. : + NL P ù f RE Le ÿ " »<28t à . + “ ne, se, Ù ” 4. ÿ y VE “re tà | ea, * NT er L F3 à e m0) SASNET sis ra JA LUS CT 2 es ame er " nù VUS lat D suryare tochet PTIT] ECDESCTECCTET mn Chan Altrrique mi ' [page 270] Figure 1 Restriction factors: Strategic Ecosystems and Protected Areas 7 "= en Le 1 din 1 k — [ ! } 5e LL ) * > ! ° 6 … 1 d Li i en « Li e ï FR { ( + » : LZ { rJ D z : CAS CC L F e * < -Æ mi 1 | Les L À Ï d . ," : d 1 { . | à À { ; - | ’ % tt » [L fl A Ù { — _— À D sbe are 1 Len Ecran RL LL 1 |] Fecil cocon ER TEE Con géotnl p veut bel mn Cas Atterrique [page 271] Figure A7.6 Restriction factors: Adequate Land Use , " Ps LL 1 » : . e nn.” G VE + pe ’ 4 4, k, PQ à L : \ 3 € \ % \ * 1» dl sr. » LI Lr = : ) : î = : FAR Et + NS F 2 Fecil cocon Land Et iieS Cnngtnint p veuiPé best [page 272] Figure A7.7 Restriction factors: Mining _r . nn m «7 > À mn: dE / a S | [ + : : | j ? | où | D É | / ç L , L \ " Es mt L'? | Le 4! à , He w [ | L - À | N bd . * …# : nl | ] A . 4, À V f dé sr. » Q ’ ELUIRPE L 72 FES ns SM EME 1 ER Les artsd CCR TAUTI ET) [page 273] APPENDIX 8: Attractions Maps EMERGING — <# GIDB © NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI Appendix << Mais ERM [page 274] Figure A8.1 Attraction factors: Agglomeration P ee Æ È =.+ . r- | 4 , 14 + Er | f _.* | | [ ) di / . y | ” À + (| ie A \ > » EL # ra * : + 3 ‘ | j | NS” A | { Ÿ S Ÿ |! ETES L. 3N A Die ms us Sc 2 — er cle vor Must misinrre (CORDES 2 [page 275] Figure A8.2 Attraction factors: Road System de \ n | Diane us Û Lord ccrrenie Fecil coran Must missnye [PORTES 22 nn Cas Alteriqies [page 276] Figure A8.3 Attraction factors: Public Utilities —- Water supply _s _—, = æ. A 23 Ù a a | ; { + | | 3 | } | d | l f j { re j É El f | : g l { h } — X Ê | . k _ { D 4 | 5 } } ‘ \ f ! : \ sa | | | | | LA A “ l _ cl * | L À | ' : 1 + f ' ; ] } | 4 Lu . LS Cagnes me ns Lerdié Ecrretate Fecil coaen Must mise ICONS 22 Mn Cohen Attwrique [page 277] Figure A8.4 Attraction factors: Public Utilities — Electric System _ __—“ - Le tr > | | { El l j | » Ÿ ” [: 4 } l 9 L L | \ | | ‘! m" Ü ! . [l — = À Cigare ss i Leréiè Ecrretitn FRecil coaben bust misinre (CCR 2 Mn Cickan Attwrique [page 278] Figure A8.5 Attraction factors: Social Services LE a = , n dr 1 | . _ ‘, ee À £ | | LCI | L | ” | | U - ! : (| A] f : | ‘ La e | à ( } Fr LE 1 : ) } ; >" fé | \ ÿ | y . (] . p | . L / . s \ + = ' " | = | l v | A | f L j ] i \ t° » + pis. en Foi! QUI 2° best mini Les = Cas Altwriques [page 279] APPENDIX 9: Development Project Maps EMERGING — <#* GIDB © NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI Appendix LES laits ERM [page 280] Figure A9.1 Attraction factors: Urban Agglomeration À . ART... Nr f A À = 4 ; i à à \ SUR À PA L 4 ! Fi LAS L ne & En FS Lee À s ie | + É + j À h / . Fr. ia à 5 j 3 NA F ., & { Ÿ } f x" S s 0 ! 25 5 10 !11 Limite commune . Recif corallien Most attractive Less attractive En Océan Atlantique [page 281] Figure A9.2 Attraction factors: Sea Port Expansion e | r VI RES à — - , CE : k it À = 0 1 È $ À ë 3 Ÿ à x er : : 10 Ste {73 Limite commune Recif corallien Most attractive Less attractive bn Océan Atlantique [page 282] Figure A9.3 Attraction factors: Infrastructure , AT... \ ST | ÿ H os : 3 ES E ed Fi ñ | Fag L & f Part y 4 Érgees é TE , { ” ë j j d { A H ‘ î F j . & ni \ L > pe j À 5 3 NN, 8-4 À € D: À Le # X Dm US 4 # K En , EE à \ 4, D, Ë { Ja % 1 Not L7 } \ è f Î À fm 5 è ù ES 4 ; k ï e | d À F ré Ra k 3 »l 0! 25 5 10 À !_1 Limite commune — Recif corallien Most attractive Less attractive bn Océan Atlantique [page 283] Figure A9.4 Attraction factors: Employment | e ‘e É = ÿ 2 _ = _ Le] [=] Lu 2 [e] | à @ Ë F4 C2 @ x 0 25 5 10 C1 Study area Frontiere In Océan Atlantique Most attractive Less attractive [page 284] APPENDIX 10: Risk Reduction Assessment EMERGING — <#* GIDB © NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI Appendix LES Mais ERM [page 285] A10 RISK REDUCTION ASSESSMENT A10.1 Approach Specific recommendations and projects that are assessed in this section have been scrutinized using a Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) model to assess the likely costs and benefits of identified mitigation measures. It is not surprising, given the intensity and frequency of flooding (both inland and coastal) that these hazards have been given priority for risk reduction assessment. This section of the report highlights the methodology followed for a risk reduction assessment and introduces and conducts a scenario analysis for various mitigation strategies in high risk areas so as provide an estimate of the costs and benefits. The risk reduction assessment comprises of all activities, including structural and non- structural measures, to avoid (prevent) or to limit (mitigate) adverse effects of hazards (ISDR 2004). Outlining the benefits of risk reduction in terms of reduced damages and other associated benefits can help in decision making for allocation of limited resources for investments in risk reduction. A CBA is used to assess the likely costs and benefits of risk reduction measures. The terms “mitigation alternatives” and “what if analysis” have been used interchangeably to indicate options that can be to be taken forward for more detailed engineering analysis and specific implementation. Table A10.1 provides a listing of the scenarios, identified by the project team, and analyzed in this study. Table A10.1 List of Mitigation Scenarios | projet | Mitigation Scenario Upgrade Urban Drainage Infrastructure Rural Drainage Infrastructure Implementation Revitalize Historical Canal System To Alleviate Flooding Upland Reforestation Mangrove Protection In The 3Bay Park The risk assessment that has been carried out for the area, provides the basis to assess the benefits and costs of possible mitigation measures. The risk assessment considers hazard, exposure, and vulnerability for buildings, infrastructure, and society. The overall approach followed for the CBA is shown in Figure A10.1 and considers the various benefits expected from strategies and the corresponding costs involved. The risk models developed for this study have been used to analyze the risk (losses) if a particular mitigation option is implemented. Next, the risk metrics [average annual loss (AAL), loss exceedence curve and loss cost] are used to identify and prioritize areas or localities that are under risk. The benefits of mitigation are then estimated by taking the difference between direct and indirect losses with and without mitigation. The benefits have been estimated as present value of future (recurring) benefits considering the life of the building/infrastructure that is being proposed. The costs of mitigation have also been estimated. These include the cost of structural interventions, setting up systems, recurring costs such as maintenance, etc. ……. EMERGING Ka e—< tx DIDB * À irériatirs ERM 1 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 286] 7 #. 7] Risk Analysis: Potential Figure A10.1 Cost Benefit Analysis A10.2 Mitigation Option No. 1.: Upgrade Urban Drainage Infrastructure in Limonade Limonade has been selected to demonstrate how improvement to urban infrastructure can be used to effectively mitigate damages and reduce losses. The example has been identified to address the problem of overland flow when the amount of rainfall exceeds the capacity of existing infrastructure. The increasing urbanization and inadequate infrastructure results in urban flooding Often rainfall water exceeds the capacity of storm water drainage infrastructure or the system becomes blocked due to debris. An increase in artificial drainage infrastructure (open catchpit drainage and culverts) is proposed to address alleviate the flooding so as to discharge water into the receiving watercourses and eventually the ocean. The proposed project shall benefit seven blocks in the Limonade (Figure A10.2). The estimated length of open drains is about 18 km, of which 9 km is assumed to be in place (existing), and an additional 9 km is proposed as new construction. Along with the 9 km of new proposed construction drains, it is anticipated that approximately 75 culverts may be needed at the various road crossings to facilitate drainage. ES GIDB Miatiee ERM 2 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 287] à b . Un SEL... seen Dést AE el JJ … {1 HE l té de Tropicaf M | L_] D LE LT LT LT A RU] D \ ZE D D uen — n— le EP d en v Legend se EL, ° Fes Rosds D / DU Food Extent 100 Year Return Period ü8,, 200 400fMetefs {sex vont à “\ | [| Beneficisry Aress in Limonsde Tin ra7en Figure A10.2 Potential Beneficiary Area in Limonade Approach The urban drainage system comprising of open ditches and culverts is proposed as mitigation scenario for inland flood protection. This system will be helpful in reducing the flood inundation by providing a passage to the flood waters. With reduced flood inundation, it is expected the risk of flooding in the area of interest (Limonade) will also be reduced. Probabilistic risk assessment results derived earlier in this study have used to estimate the reduction in risk and overall benefits (losses avoided). The base case risk metrics (AAL, LEC and Loss Cost) have been used to identify blocks within the Limonade which are likely to be benefited from the drainage infrastructure improvements. As shown in the above map, much of the urban area in Limonade benefits from this mitigation action. Since the town is vulnerable to both inland and urban floods, it is assumed that this system will bring down the overall risk in this area by 50%. Finally, the benefits to the area of interest are calculated by comparing the base case (AAL) and the AAL with the mitigation options in place. Cost benefit ratio measures the costs incurred and the benefits accrued from a policy or action - in this case the construction of urban drainage system. Costs: The costs of drainage system construction and upgrades are considered. The system comprises of construction of new open ditches or catch-pits, upgrading of existing ditches and construction of new culverts. Costing of construction includes all the components such as costs of materials, equipment, labor forces, support, benefits, and other miscellaneous costs. The project costs include: ° New Open catch-pit of 0.5x0.5 mis estimated at about USD $180,000 per km. e. EMERGING = La vf BIDB PR Vrétiathes ERM 3 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 288] + Upgrade of the existing drainage system is assumed to be 70% of new construction, which amounts to USD $126, 000. + Cost of construction of the culvert is estimated to be USD 3,600 for 6 m length of the culvert. As mentioned above, in the seven beneficiary urban blocks of Limonade, the estimated length of open drains is about 18 km. About 9 km are assumed as existing ones and rest 9 km is proposed for new construction. Along the 9 km of new proposed construction drains, an about 75 culverts are estimated. Thus the total cost of proposed drainage system is estimated to be USD 3,024,000. The costs are assumed one- time investments with expected benefits spread over the life of the system. The life of the system has been taken as 20 years. Benefits: Different benefits due to mitigation are considered for the cost benefit analysis that include indirect and direct benefits (both tangible and intangible). Benefits of mitigation are estimated by taking the difference between losses with and without mitigation (Kunreuther, 2001). A portion of the direct tangible benefits of a flood damage reduction project is due to a reduction in the inundation area which will reduce damage due to flooding of structures and other properties. Mathematically, we compute this inundation-reduction benefit Bk as: Bir = Xwithout — Xwith in which: Xwithout — expected damages or economic impact without project; and Xwith - expected damage or economic impact if the project is implemented. The benefits include reduced losses to residential and commercial buildings due to the improvement of the drainage system. The benefits due to reduction in losses for various sectors (as shown in above equation) are estimated as the difference between present values of future flood AAL with the project in place and AAL without improvements to the drainage system. Since these benefits accrue over the life of the project (buildings/infrastructure/systems), it is important to discount them to a present value so that benefits accruing at different times can be made comparable. The benefits are estimated as present value of future (recurring) benefits considering the life of the system. The life of system is usually considered as the minimum time period in which system will be functional. In case of drainage systems (catch-pits, culverts, etc), it is taken to be 20 years. The present values of future benefits are estimated as: PV=C G@+d)-1 = Cox = 9 dx(1+d)t Where, PV = Present value Co = Cost (In this case average annual loss) d = discount rates (assumed 3%) t= time, years (assumed = life of the system 20 years) The outcome of the above equation is the present value of future benefits over the time (considered as the life of the system). The total present values of benefits with the proposed mitigation action is USD $ 7,694,826. Cost Benefit Analysis As described above, various benefits and costs are considered in the cost benefit analysis to estimate the cost benefit ratio. The proposed urban drainage system is expected to benefit most of the urban area in Limonade and reduce flood losses to various exposure sectors. EMERGING Ka e— te DIDB à" À iraiaties ERM 4 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 289] TableA10.2 evaluates the mitigation option of introducing urban drainage system in comparison to base case. The base case is status quo condition generally assumed to be the losses without a mitigation action. Table A10.2: Cost benefit analysis of urban drainage system in Limonade Other Information Life of the Drainage System, Years L Gromthraator | 19 | ms | Flood AAL Residential Building AAL, USD 838,692 419,346 [| Commercial Building AAL, USD 194,171 97,086 || industrial Buiäing aAL uso S Present value of future Flood losses Residential Building AAL, USD 12,496,504 6,248,252 [| Commercial Building AAL, USD 2,893,148 1,446,574 || industrial Buiäing AL usD D Cost of Drainage System Construction, USD l 3,024,000 |__| rotalcost,usn |__| 274000 Present Value of Benefits| Residential Building, USD l 6,248,252 |__| commercial Buiäing, USD | 1426578 |__| industrial Buiäing, USD ES |__| rotalBeneñts, usD | rooms Cost benefit Ratio Cost benefit Ratio | | 24 Base Case: The results from base case analysis of the probabilistic risk assessment have been used to establish this scenario. The results from the defined beneficiary urban area suggest that AAL for buildings due to floods is USD $1,032,863. The present values of future flood AAL to the buildings in the base case condition are estimated over a 20 year period to be USD $15,389,652. Cost benefit Ratio of Mitigation Option: Since the total cost of construction of drainage system is estimated to USD $3,024,000. The total present values of benefits with the proposed drainage options are estimated to be USD $7,694,826. The cost benefit ratio (BCR) is computed by taking a ratio of present value of all benefits due to mitigation and total costs of mitigation. BCR Y Present Value of Benefits : Y Costs of Mitigation Considering the total benefits of USD $7,694,826 against the total costs of the mitigation action (USD 3,024,000), the BCR for this mitigation scenario is 2.54. A BCR, greater than one, suggests that benefits are higher than the cost of the project, indicating that the project is a good investment (i.e. the benefits outweigh the costs). Considering the satisfactory cost benefit ratio, this option may be taken forward for possible planning, pre- feasibility studies, etc. …. EMERGING La de” | leériatire ERM 5 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 290] A10.3 Mitigation Option No 2. Rural Drainage Infrastructure Implementation A proto-typical rural infrastructure solution has been identified to address the problem of overland flows in rural areas. Where in urban areas problems arise due to the fact that drainage infrastructure is overloaded or outdated, in rural areas infrastructure to divert water flows is largely unavailable. To address flooding, especially along transportation corridors and settlement areas, a system of linear concrete drainage outlets such as culvert pipes and rolling cross drains (catchpits) are proposed to divert water away from settlements. Drain canals are to be reinforced with rock and masonry to prevent erosion. It is important that consideration to the impact the flow of water will have on settlement areas in the lower reaches of the watershed so as not to exacerbate flooding in other areas. As shown in Figure A10.3, the diversion drain (1.0 X 1.5 m) starting from area south of industrial park and draining in to the sea (west of Caracol town) may comprise a length of about 7.1 km and 5 culverts. It is assumed that at present there is no infrastructure available and proposed infrastructure will be newly constructed. syéron D. EE | ns & 4 —Garacol @ y. }-Méèrion h, adras Sr t # 4 Hache él Vi rl acquezil| seven =. = — a “, euryh =. |__| man) $ / = ns we À I] / LI [1 # | Legend L Ette | De. + Pisces Garde Mimaigthabert ass LE Rgtit-Coline DIN Ficod Extent 100 Year Return Period od 35 |730 1,460 1 annees! F. | [4 D SP ARS Figure A10.3 Potential Beneficiary Area for Rural Infrastructure Approach To alleviate flooding, especially along transportation corridors and settlement areas, a system of linear concrete drainage outlets such as culvert pipes and rolling cross drains (catch pits) are proposed to divert water away from settlements. Drains canals are to be reinforced with rock and masonry to prevent erosion. This system will be helpful in reducing the flood inundation by providing a diversion to the flood waters. With reduced flooding, it is expected the risk of flooding in the area of interest (linear settlements occurring near and around the industrial park) will also be reduced. Probabilistic risk assessment results derived earlier in this study have used to estimate the reduction in risk and overall benefits (losses avoided). The base case risk metrics (AAL, LEC and Loss Cost) have been used to identify and blocks within the area of interest which are likely to be benefited. As shown in the above map, approximately 39 blocks will benefit from this mitigation action. Since the area is vulnerable to inland floods and proposed system dimensions shall carry more floodwaters, it is assumed that this system will bring down the overall risk in this area by 70%. Finally, the benefits to the area of sn. EMERGING = La SE PR Vrétiathes ERM 6 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 291] interest are calculated by comparing the base case (AAL) and the AAL with the mitigation options in place. Cost benefit ratio measures the costs incurred and the benefits accrued from a policy or action - in this case the construction of rural drainage system. Costs: The costs primarily include the costs of drainage system construction. The system comprises of construction of new open ditches or catch-pits and new culverts. Generally, the costs of drainage system construction and upgrades include all the components such as the costs of materials, equipment, labor forces, support, benefits, and other miscellaneous costs. The project costs include: ° New open catch-pit of 1.0X1.5 mis estimated at about USD $135,000 per km. + Cost of construction of the culvert is taken USD 3,600 for 6 m length of the culvert. As mentioned above, there are 39 beneficiary blocks and the estimated length of the proposed drains is about 7.1 km. Along the 7.1 km of new proposed construction drains, a about 5 culverts are estimated. Thus the total cost of proposed drainage system works out at about USD 980,550. The costs are assumed one-time investments with expected benefits spread over the life of the system. The life of the system has been taken as 20 years. Benefits: Different benefits due to mitigation are considered for the cost benefit analyses that include indirect and direct benefits (both tangible and intangible). These studies are generally taken up later in the implementation and engineering design stage of the project. Benefits of mitigation are estimated by taking the difference between losses with and without mitigation (Kunreuther, 2001). A portion of the direct tangible benefits of a flood damage reduction project is due to a reduction in the inundation area which will reduce damage due to flooding of structures and other properties. Mathematically, we compute this inundation- reduction benefit Bk as: Bir = Xwithout — Xwith in which Xwithout — expected damages or economic impact without project; and Xwith - expected damage or economic impact if the project is implemented. The benefits include reduced losses to residential and commercial buildings due to the improvement of the drainage system. The benefits due to reduction in losses for various sectors (as shown in above equation) are estimated as the difference between present values of future flood AAL with the project in place and AAL without improvements to the drainage system. Since these benefits accrue over the life of the project (buildings/infrastructure/systems), it is important to discount them to a present value so that benefits accruing at different times can be made comparable. The benefits are estimated as present value of future (recurring) benefits considering the life of the system. The life of system is usually considered as the minimum time period in which system will be functional. In case of drainage systems (catch-pits, culverts, etc), it is taken as 20 years. The present values of future benefits are estimated as: PV=C G@+d)-1 = Cox = 7 % dx(1+d) Where, PV = Present value Co = Cost (In this case average annual loss) d = discount rates (assumed 3%) t= time, years (assumed = life of the system 20 years) The outcome of the above equation is the present value of future benefits over the time (considered as the life of the system). +. EMERGING Ka et BIDB * À iraiaties ERM 7 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 292] The outcome of the above equation is the present value of future benefits over the time (considered as the life of the system). The total present values of benefits with the proposed mitigation action is USD $1,049,532. Cost benefit Analysis As described above, various benefits and costs are considered in the cost benefit analysis to estimate the cost benefit ratio. The proposed rural drainage system is expected to benefit most of the area near industrial park and reduce flood losses to various exposure sectors. TableA10.3 evaluates the mitigation option of introducing rural drainage system in comparison to base case. The base case is status quo condition generally assumed to be the losses without a mitigation action. Table A10.3: Cost benefit analysis of rural drainage system Other Information Life of the Drainage System, Years U érowhra | us | us | Flood AAL Residential Building AAL, USD 7,238 2,171 |__| commercial Building AL, USD 1,402 | Industrial Building AAL, USD 91,986 27,596 Present value of future 107,848 32,355 Flood losses Residential Building AAL, USD [| Commercial Building AAL, USD 20,885 6,265 | Industrial Building AAL, USD 1,370,599 411,180 Cost of Drainage System Construction, USD l 980,550 | | Total cost, USD | | 980,550 Present Value of 75,494 Residential Building, USD | mm |__| commercial Building, USD [| m6 [| industrial Building, USD [| ose Cost benefit Ratio Cost benefit Ratio | | 1o | Base Case: The results from base case analysis of the probabilistic risk assessment have been used to establish this scenario. The results from the defined beneficiary urban area suggest that AAL for buildings due to floods is USD $ 100,626. The present values of future flood AAL to the buildings in the base case condition are estimated over a 20 year period to be USD $1,499,332. Cost benefit Ratio of Mitigation Option: Since the total cost of construction of drainage system is estimated to USD $ 980,550 and the total present values of benefits with the proposed drainage options are estimated to be USD $ 1,049,532. The cost benefit ratio (BCR) is computed by taking a ratio of present value of all benefits due to mitigation and total costs of mitigation. Y Present Value of Benefits BR = — Y Costs of Mitigation The comparison of the total benefits of USD $1,049,532 against the total costs of mitigation action of USD $980,550, the BCR is 1.07. The cost benefit ratio, greater than one, suggests that benefits are higher than the cost of the project, indicating that the project is a conservative investment (ï.e. the benefits slightly outweigh RE SIDB & sn * gi: ERM 8 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 293] the costs). Considering the satisfactory cost benefit ratio, this option may be taken forward for possible planning, pre feasibility studies, etc. A10.4 Mitigation Option No. 3: Revitalize Historical Canal System to Alleviate Flooding The revitalization of the canals in northern Haiti is focused on a revitalizing existing drainage and irrigation systems that were put in place during the plantation era. In historical times, these canals helped serve as a regulatory mechanism for the conservation of fresh runoff water during times when there was a significant lag time between significant rainfalls. Today, the canal system lies in decay (silted) on defunct plantations, and this mitigation scenario, explores whether revitalizing certain areas can help play a role in mitigating flood problems by providing critical drainage in the lower reaches of the watersheds. Specifically, the revitalization of canals will include dredging to remove silt and increasing the cross-sectional area of the canals so as to divert flooding and overland flows to natural watercourses and/or ocean. Key considerations for this project will include providing an adequate site for discarded material and ensuring that natural barriers are in place to manage sediment and nutrients loads in coastal environs. Another key consideration is to ensure that there are mechanisms in place to ensure that there is maintenance or upkeep. As shown in Figure A10.4, the possibility of dredging a series of canals that total a length of 3.8 km is evaluated. Considering the dimensions 4m X 6m for a typical canal system, the dredging volume is estimated at 40,800 m°. Fragen rrsgeue x “& Hs rue LE Ÿ =. Legend \) + Flac =— Canss | M Ficod Extent 100 Year Return Period Éo—24 20 * L [1 Bloc Boundery _ [__] Beneficiary Aress ren rrsfon Figure A10.4 Potential Beneficiary Area for Canal System Approach Dredging provides a mitigating effect for flooding by increasing the cross-sectional area of the canals so as to divert flows to natural watercourse and/or ocean. A possibility of rehabilitation of canal system in the area of interest has been evaluated in this section. With reduced flooding, it is expected the risk of flooding in the area of interest (near Jacquezil) will also be reduced. Probabilistic risk assessment results derived earlier in this +. HMERGING = La et BIDB s À Vrétiathes ERM 9 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 294] study have used to estimate the reduction in risk and overall benefits (losses avoided). The base case risk metrics (AAL, LEC and Loss Cost) have been used to identify and blocks within the area of interest which are likely to benefit. As shown in the above map, about four blocks in the area of interest will benefit from this mitigation action. Since the area is vulnerable to inland floods and proposed system dimensions shall carry more floodwaters, it is assumed that this system will bring down the overall risk in this area by 70%. Finally, the benefits to the area of interest are calculated by comparing the base case (AAL) and the AAL with the mitigation options in place. Cost benefit ratio measures the costs incurred and the benefits accrued from a policy or action - in this case the construction of rural drainage system. Costs: The costs include the costs of dredging. The project cost of dredging of canals of 4 X 6 m for the length of 3.8 km (40, 800 mÿ) is estimated at about USD $ 183,600 considering a unit cost of USD 4.5/m°. The costs are assumed one-time investments with expected benefits spread over the life of the system. The life of the system has been taken as 20 years. Benefits: Different benefits due to mitigation are considered for the cost benefit analysis. For this project, a portion of the direct tangible benefits of a flood damage reduction is expected as inundation decreases. Mathematically, we compute this inundation-reduction benefit Bk as: Bir = Xwithout — Xwith in which Xwithout — expected damages or economic impact without project; and Xwith - expected damage or economic impact if the project is implemented. The benefits include reduced losses to residential and commercial buildings due to the improvement of the canal drainage system. The benefits due to reduction in losses for various sectors (as shown in above equation) are estimated as the difference between present values of future flood AAL with the project in place and AAL without improvements to the drainage system. Since these benefits accrue over the life of the project (buildings/infrastructure/systems), it is important to discount them to a present value so that benefits accruing at different times can be made comparable. The benefits are estimated as present value of future (recurring) benefits considering the life of the system. The life of system is usually considered as the minimum time period in which system will be functional. In case of drainage systems (canals, catch-pits, culverts, etc), it is taken as 20 years. The present values of future benefits are estimated as: PV = C G+d)t-1 = Cox “7 % dx(1+d) Where, PV = Present value Co = Cost (In this case average annual loss) d = discount rates (assumed 3%) t= time, years (assumed = life of the system 20 years) The outcome of the above equation is the present value of future benefits over the time (considered as the life of the system). The total present values of benefits with the proposed mitigation action is USD $ 127,505. Cost benefit Analysis As described above, various benefits and costs are considered in the cost benefit analysis to estimate the cost benefit ratio. The proposed rehabilitation of canal system is expected to benefit most of the area near Jacquezil and reduce flood losses to various exposure sectors. +. EMERGING Ka 6" BIDB * À iraiaties ERM 10 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 295] Table A10.4 evaluates this mitigation option in comparison to base case. The base case is status quo condition generally assumed without mitigation. Table A10.4: Cost benefit analysis of Canal Rehabilitation Other Information Life of the Canal System, Years | Grohrator | 145 | us | Flood AAL Residential Building AAL, USD 7,137 2,141 fi Commercial Building AAL, USD 5,088 1,526 métal uiéimgaat un | Present value of future Flood losses Residential Building AAL, USD 106,339 31,902 fi Commercial Building AAL, USD 75,810 22,743 métal Buiéimgaat un | Cost of Dredging, USD |__| 183,600 | rotalcos, usn |__| i8s600 Present Value of Benefits Residential Building, USD D 74,438 [| commercial Buiäimg, USD | | 53,067 | | industrial Buiaing, USD EE || rotalBeneñts,usD || a27s0s Cost benefit Ratio Cost benefit Ratio [| oæ | Base Case: The results from base case analysis of the probabilistic risk assessment have been used to establish this scenario. The results from the defined beneficiary area suggest that AAL for buildings due to floods is USD $ 12,225. The present values of future flood AAL to the buildings in the base case condition are estimated over a 20 year period to be USD $182,149. Cost benefit Ratio of Mitigation Option: Since the total cost of construction of dredging is estimated to USD $ 183,600. The decreased AAL and the present values of future flood losses with the proposed drainage improvements in place are given in Table A10.4. The cost benefit ratio (BCR) is computed by taking a ratio of present value of all benefits due to mitigation and total costs of mitigation. BCR Y Present Value of Benefits : Y Costs of Mitigation The total present values of benefits with the proposed drainage options are estimated to be USD $ 127,505 against the total costs of mitigation of USD $183,600, the BCR is 0.69. The cost benefit ratio, less than one, suggests that benefits are lower than the cost of the project, indicating that the project is a not a good investment (i.e. the benefits under weigh the costs). Considering the non-satisfactory cost benefit ratio, this option should not be taken forward for possible planning, pre-feasibility studies, etc. A10.5 Mitigation Option No. 4.: Upland Reforestation of the Trou Du Nord Watershed Deforestation and environmental degradation in Haïti has been caused by growing populations and a reliance on wood as source of energy, which places great strains on forests. The changed vegetation cover affects the < IN #5 SIDB sn * 1] ERM 11 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 296] hydrological behavior of catchments and has resulted in recent times to an increase number of intense flood disasters throughout the country. The reforestation of Trou du Nord watershed is being proposed as an example of a sustainable mitigation measure to increase the interception of water in the upper reaches of watershed so as to decrease the peak and total storm flow during intense rainfall events. This mitigation measure will also work to prevent soil erosion and contribute to forest conservation which in turn enhancing carbon dioxide removal. Key considerations for the implementation of this measure are to understand that the potential benefits will be tied to a longer time horizon (i.e. storm flows depend on the maturity of the forest) and to ensure that the replanted areas remain undisturbed (i.e. enforcement). It is proposed that the barren hillsides (which are results of degradation) be planted with commercial crops like coffee. In Trou Du Nord watershed, lands that are barren are estimated to be about 487 ha. The areas are mostly in the upstream of the watershed (Figure A10.5), and contribute significant amount of flows to main stream of Trou Du Nord. Tran Free rrsgen Se SRE 2 | IN MR : | & 13470N ve El À : es : Ci : E 19350N a Ve 43 à à | Legend LES 4 P ns L | à M F5 Extent 100 ea Return Period & KE \ M 2 ro Rcorstrations 2 1e Ni | 1] rouuners Wstershed d 5 ks 0 À | Block Boundary re DS va ÿ £ Beneficisr y Areas * F F — “| 0 1,5003,000 6,000 Meters | — + nee oN su it Fra Fra rrrslen Figure A10.5 Trou du Nord Watershed and Re-Forestration Areas Approach The reforestation of Trou du Nord watershed is being proposed as an example of a sustainable mitigation measure to increase the interception of water in the upper reaches of watershed so as to decrease the peak and total storm flow in intense rainfall events. It proposed that the barren lands (which are results of degradation) may be planted with coffee. The planting of commercial crops will improve the water holding capacity of the soil and reduce the peak flows. The hydrological and hydraulic models developed in this study have been used to estimate the impact of the planting of upland crops on the reduction of flows. The abstraction parameters (initial losses, infiltration losses, etc.) have been estimated with improved land use and model simulations which suggest that there would be a reduction of flooding by 27%. The reduction is estimated higher in lower return periods (low magnitude events) as compared to higher return periods. With reduced flood inundation, it is expected the risk of flooding in the area of interest (Trou Du Nord Watershed) will also be reduced. Probabilistic risk assessment results derived earlier in this study have used to estimate the +. EMERGING = La si À ieaiates ERM 12 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 297] reduction in risk and overall benefits (losses avoided). The base case risk metrics (AAL, LEC and Loss Cost) have been used to identify and blocks within the area of interest which are likely to be benefited. As shown in the above map, about 67 blocks in the area of interest benefits from this mitigation action. Finally, the benefits to the area of interest are calculated by comparing the base case (AAL) and the AAL with the mitigation options in place. Cost benefit ratio measures the costs incurred and the benefits accrued from a policy or action - in this case the watershed re-forestation. Costs: The costs primarily include the costs of planting of coffee in upland areas. The project cost for crop planting in 487 ha area is estimated at about USD $ 1,217,500 considering a unit cost of USD 2,500/ha. The costs are assumed one-time investments with expected benefits spread over the life of the crop. The life of the crop has been taken as 20 years. Benefits: Different benefits due to mitigation are considered for the cost benefit analysis. For this project, a portion of the direct tangible benefits of a flood damage reduction is expected as inundation decreases. Mathematically, we compute this inundation-reduction benefit B; as: Bir = Xwithout — Xwith in which Xwithout — expected damages or economic impact without project; and Xwith - expected damage or economic impact if the project is implemented. The benefits include reduced losses to residential and commercial buildings due to reduction in flood flows. The benefits due to reduction in losses for various sectors (as shown in above equation) are estimated as the difference between present values of future flood AAL with the project in place and AAL without improvements to the drainage system. Since these benefits accrue over the life of the project (buildings/infrastructure/systems), it is important to discount them to a present value so that benefits accruing at different times can be made comparable. The benefits are estimated as present value of future (recurring) benefits considering the life of the system. The life of system is usually considered as the minimum time period in which system will be functional. Though, the average life of the crop is 40 years, but the benefits starts with the complete maturity of the crop and established of renewed hydrological cycle in the watershed. Hence, in this case life of the crop is taken as 20 years. The present values of future benefits are estimated as: PV=C G@+d)-1 = Cox ——————— 9 dx(1+d)t Where, PV = Present value Co = Cost (In this case average annual loss) d = discount rates (assumed 3%) t= time, years (assumed = life of the crop 20 years) The outcome of the above equation is the present value of future benefits over the time (considered as the life of the system). The total present values of benefits with the proposed mitigation action is USD$2,772,785. Cost benefit Analysis As described above, various benefits and costs are considered in the cost benefit analysis to estimate the cost benefit ratio. The proposed watershed reforestation is expected to benefit most of the area in Trou Du Nord watershed and reduce flood losses to various exposure sectors. +. EMERGING Ka 6" BIDB * À iraiaties ERM 13 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 298] Table A10.5 evaluates this mitigation option in comparison to base case. The base case is status quo condition generally assumed without mitigation. Table A10.5 Cost benefit analysis of Watershed Reforestation Other Information Life of the Plantation, Years RS CE CES Flood AAL Residential Building AAL, USD 520,112 379,682 [| commercial Building AAL, USD 169,121 123,459 À industrial Buramgaat un | | Present value of future Flood losses Residential Building AAL, USD 7,749,665 5,657,255 [| commercial Building AAL, USD 2,519,908 1,839,533 À industrial Buramgaat un | | Cost of Plantation, USD | | 1217500 [| Total cost, usD || arssoo Present Value of Benefits Residential Building, USD D 2,092,410 | commercial guiaing, un | | 680375 | |" imdustril Buiaing, usD EE | | rotal Beneñis, usD | armes Cost benefit Ratio Cost benefit Ratio | | 223 | Base Case: The results from base case analysis of the probabilistic risk assessment have been used to establish this scenario. The results from the defined beneficiary area suggest that AAL for buildings (RES and COM) due to floods is USD $ 689,233. The present values of future flood AAL to the buildings in the base case condition are estimated at USD $ 10,269,572. Cost benefit Ratio of Mitigation Option: Since the total cost of planting is estimated to USD 1,217,500. The total present values of benefits with the proposed drainage options are estimated to be USD $ 2,772,785. The cost benefit ratio (BCR) is computed by taking a ratio of present value of all benefits due to mitigation and total costs of mitigation. BCR Y Present Value of Benefits _ X Costs of Mitigation The comparison of the total benefits of USD $ 2,772,785 against the total costs of mitigation of USD $ 1,217,500, the BCR is 2.28. The cost benefit ratio, greater than one, suggests that benefits are higher than the cost of the project, indicating that the project is a good investment (ï.e. the benefits outweigh the costs). Considering the satisfactory cost benefit ratio, this option may be taken forward for possible planning, pre feasibility studies, etc. A10.6 Mitigation Option No. 5.: Mangrove Reforestation in the Parc National Trois Baies Forested wetlands that are linked to the coastal environs serve as a natural buffer against storm surges, sea- level rise and wave action in particular. Natural features help to absorb large volumes of advancing water, and as a result, have a dissipating effect on wave energy. In this regard the wetlands, particularly the mangrove forests, that are part of the Parc National Trois Baies, are vital for mitigating the effects of coastal flooding in ……. EMERGING La de” | leériatire ERM 14 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 299] Northern Haiti. Mangrove forests in particular play an important ecological role while providing a variety of services that include protection from erosion, flooding cyclones and tidal waves. An increase in the spatial extent of mangrove forests in the Parc National Trois Baies will not only serve as a mitigation measure against coastal hazards and climate change, but also contributes to conservation Haïti ecological systems, natural environment and biodiversity that are becoming increasing important to everyone around the world. Along the coastal line of about 60 km of Parc National Trois Baies, it proposed that a 5km strip of mangrove be reforested. This would mean about 300 sq.km of area would be planted. The targeted area would benefit about 138 blocks from coastal flooding (Figure A10.6). rrsew rreow son ea A Ni HUSEN ÉCALE—, rai: 4 Ÿ ne D fl ] (SR — BA re. cs | JA à 1 EEE LL } è rt % ee CL pl ) AT ta ER à NS PTT ES) j VER 2 REere | ST i ee D le #17 Legend ET ; pr EX | | Benificiay Ares GRR TT NC] 2 80y Part Boundary Le. ; _ , VF s | Block Boundsry == RE ù à Coastal Flood 100 Year Retrun Period |... 135eN — = NS É— High L 1,7503,500 7,000 Meters MEL TS Î L Si L Low j 1 rriden Fo 7e selon Figure A10.6 Beneficiary Areas from Mangroves Approach Natural features like Mangroves help to absorb large volumes of advancing water, and as a result, have a dissipating effect on wave energy. In this regard the wetlands, particularly the mangrove forests, that are part of the Parc National Trois Baies are vital for mitigating the effects of coastal flooding in Northern Haïti. It is proposed to reforest a 5km of strip of Mangroves along the coastal line of about 60 km of PN3B comprising 300 sq.km of area. With reduced flood inundation, it is expected the risk of flooding in the area of interest (in 138 blocks on northern coast of Haiti) will also be reduced. Probabilistic risk assessment results derived earlier in this study have used to estimate the reduction in risk and overall benefits (losses avoided). The base case risk metrics (AAL, LEC and Loss Cost) have been used to identify and blocks within the area of interest which are likely to be benefited (approximately 138 blocks). ERGING — c<# GIDB © ee. Miatiee ERM 15 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 300] Finally, the benefits to the area of interest are calculated by comparing the base case (AAL) and the AAL with the mitigation options in place. Cost benefit ratio measures the costs incurred and the benefits accrued from a policy or action - in this case the Mangrove protection. Costs: The costs of this measure include the costs of planting mangrove trees. The project cost for crop planting in 300 sq.km area is estimated at about USD $ 6,750,000 considering a unit cost of USD 22,500/sq.km. The costs are assumed one-time investments with expected benefits spread over the life of the system. The life of the system has been taken as 50 years. Benefits: Different benefits due to mitigation are considered for the cost benefit analysis. For this project, a portion of the direct tangible benefits of a flood damage reduction is expected as inundation decreases. Mathematically, we compute this inundation-reduction benefit B, as: Bir = Xwithout — Xwith in which Xwithout — expected damages or economic impact without project; and Xwith - expected damage or economic impact if the project is implemented. The benefits include reduced losses to residential, commercial and industrial buildings due to the mangrove protection. The benefits due to reduction in losses for various sectors (as shown in above equation) are estimated as the difference between present values of future flood AAL with the project in place and AAL without improvements to the drainage system. Since these benefits accrue over the life of the project (buildings/infrastructure/systems), it is important to discount them to a present value so that benefits accruing at different times can be made comparable. The benefits are estimated as present value of future (recurring) benefits considering the life of the system. The life of system is usually considered as the minimum time period in which system will be functional. Though, the average life of the mangrove is generally more than 50 years, but the benefits starts with the complete maturity of the plats and established of renewed ecosystem cycle in the area. Hence, in this case life of the system is taken as 50 years. The present values of future benefits are estimated as: PV=C G@+d)-1 = Cox = 9 dx(1+d)t Where, PV = Present value Co = Cost (In this case average annual loss) d = discount rates (assumed 3%) t= time, years (assumed = life of the system 50 years) The outcome of the above equation is the present value of future benefits over the time (considered as the life of the system). The total present values of benefits with the proposed mitigation action is UD USD $ 60,472,298. Cost benefit Analysis As described above, various benefits and costs are considered in the cost benefit analysis to estimate the cost benefit ratio. The proposed mangrove protection is expected to benefit most of the area in north coast and reduce flood losses to various exposure sectors. Table A10.6 evaluates this mitigation option in comparison to base case. The base case is status quo condition generally assumed without mitigation. +. EMERGING Ka et BIDB * À iraiaties ERM 16 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS [page 301] Table A10.6 Cost benefit analysis of mangrove protection Other Information Life of the Plantation, Years À Growthactor 7 | 257 | 257 | Coastal Flood AAL Residential Building AAL, USD 4,403,444 2,421,894 [| commercial Building AAL, USD 825,462 454,004 | méustrielBuraimg aa un | | Present value of future Flood losses Residential Building AAL, USD 113,168,505 62,242,678 D Commercial Building AAL, USD 21,214,379 11,667,909 RE AS ES Cost of Plantation, USD |" 6750000 [| Total cost, usD | | 6750000 Present Value of Benefits Residential Building, USD l 50,925,827 | commercialguiaing,usD | | osaçan | |" imdustril Buiaing, usD ES | | Total eneñis, usD || coa7zzss Cost benefit Ratio Cost benefit Ratio [| ss | Base Case: The results from base case analysis of the probabilistic risk assessment have been used to establish this scenario. The results from the defined beneficiary area suggest that AAL for buildings due to floods is USD $ 5,228,906. The present values of future flood AAL to the buildings in the base case condition are estimated at USD $ 134,382,884. Cost benefit Ratio of Mitigation Option: Since the total cost of planting is estimated to USD 6,750,000. The decreased AAL and the present values of future flood losses with the proposed mitigation in place are given in Table A10.6. The total present values of benefits with the proposed drainage options are estimated to be USD $ 60,472,298. The cost benefit ratio (BCR) is computed by taking a ratio of present value of all benefits due to mitigation and total costs of mitigation. BCR Y Present Value of Benefits : Y Costs of Mitigation The comparison of the total benefits of USD $ 60,472,298 against the total costs of mitigation of USD $ 6,750,000, the BCR is 8.96. The cost benefit ratio, greater than one, suggests that benefits are higher than the cost of the project, indicating that the project is a good investment (i.e. the benefits outweigh the costs). Considering the satisfactory cost benefit ratio, this option may be taken forward for possible planning, pre feasibility studies, etc. A10.7 References Kunreuther, H., Cyr, C., Grossi, P., Tao, W., Using Cost-benefit Analysis to Evaluate Mitigation for Lifeline Systems, Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 2001. 224 SIDB L sn * gi: ERM 17 ESCI HAITI — APPENDIX 10: COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS