Four Questions That Could Determine Haiti's Future

This November 2024 analysis (French-language edition) was written after the Transitional Presidential Council (CPT) dismissed PM Garry Conille on November 10 after six months, corruption accusations shadowed three CPT members, and a U.S. commercial airliner was hit by gunfire, closing Haiti's main airport. Fauriol's first question concerns cohesion: with Leslie Voltaire presiding and Alix Didier Fils-Aimé as new PM, decision rights must be clarified, the dormant Organe de Surveillance de l'Action Gouvernementale activated, and the transitional government's Security Council formalized. Second, security options beyond the underperforming Kenyan-led MSS: transition to a conventional U.N. peacekeeping operation (larger, institutionally funded, but slow to deploy, possibly not complete before spring 2025, and facing Russian-Chinese opposition); merging the MSS into a robust U.S.-led coalition; a direct U.S.-led regional campaign against gangs and trafficking networks using specialized private contractors; or a 'Bukele option' building a modern Haitian army, which Fauriol flags as politically appealing to some but potentially a failing strategy in Haiti's context.

Third, international support is entering uncertainty with the change of U.S. administration, with gang violence increasingly calibrated for political effect and gangs evolving toward cartel-like operational ambition. Fourth, the February 2026 transition demands near-miracles in 2025: street-level security, a constitutional referendum (the most achievable step, building on the parliamentary commission report and Jerry Tardieu's constitutional study group under the National Conference's Comité de Pilotage), reconstitution of the electoral council, and election funding, against a history of turnout near or below 20 percent. He concludes that no support will work unless Haitian leaders set aside personal ambition, and fragmented international efforts will not deliver the 2026 transition.