Have Haitians Finally Found the Formula for Moving Forward?

In this March 2023 analysis (French-language edition), Keith Mines pushes back against the 'failed state' label: having served in Somalia after its 1992 collapse, he judges Haiti a state at the lowest level of functionality, with an underperforming, unelected government, but still possessing security forces, diplomatic representation, functioning ports and airports, and a dynamic civil society, assets failed states lack, though migration is rapidly draining them. The December 21, 2022 agreement, developed by a coalition of business, civil society and political actors and endorsed by PM Ariel Henry, aims to create a transparent, representative transition architecture leading to elections by end-2023.

Its pillars: a three-member High Council of the Transition (HCT), former first lady Mirlande Manigat (political sector), Chamber of Commerce president Laurent St. Cyr (business) and Protestant Federation president Calixte Fleuridor (civil society), installed February 7 to run consultations starting with security, participate in selecting the electoral council (CEP) and steer constitutional revisions; and an OCAG performing legislative-style oversight of budgets and management. Mines acknowledges detractors, some see a luxury of dialogue or a prop for an unpopular PM, but argues the design channels dialogue directly into governance, and modifying this architecture beats starting over and losing another year. Success requires international support: a secretariat for the HCT/OCAG, expertise for complex consultations (models include Tunisia's 2011 Quartet dialogue and Colombia's regional dialogues, plus social media tools to overcome security constraints), and diplomatic insistence from Haiti's key allies on following through.