(2024-10) Haiti Macro Poverty Outlook
Summary — The World Bank's October 2024 Macro Poverty Outlook for Haiti projects a 4.2 percent GDP contraction in 2024 amid gang violence and a protracted political crisis, with extreme poverty rising to 36.4 percent of the population and only modest growth expected in 2025 and 2026.
Key Findings
- GDP is projected to contract 4.2 percent in 2024 as all sectors decline, with agriculture down 6.6 percent yoy and the ICAE index down 4.0 percent yoy at end-H1 2024.
- Extreme poverty (US$2.15/day 2017 PPP) is estimated at 36.4 percent in 2024, up from 29.9 percent in 2020, and projected at 36.6 percent by 2026.
- Modest growth of 0.5 percent in 2025 and 1.5 percent in 2026 is expected, contingent on improved political stability and security ahead of elections before end-2025.
- CPI inflation eased to 28.3 percent by end-May 2024 but food inflation rose to 40.5 percent, and 50 percent of the population faced acute food insecurity as of June 2024.
- The fiscal deficit is set to narrow from 2.3 percent of GDP in FY23 to 0.6 percent in 2024, and debt cancellation from Venezuela cuts debt from 24.2 to 15.2 percent of GDP.
Full Description
This October 2024 (Annual Meetings) edition of the World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook describes a Haitian economy deepening into a fragility trap. GDP is expected to contract by 4.2 percent in 2024 as gang violence, a protracted political and institutional crisis, and Prime Minister Ariel Henry's April 2024 resignation depress investor confidence; the high-frequency ICAE index fell 4.0 percent year-on-year at end-H1 2024, with agriculture down 6.6 percent and the textile sector shedding jobs from a peak near 60,000 in Q1 2022 to 32,084 by April 2024. Living standards have deteriorated, with an estimated 36.4 percent of Haitians in extreme poverty (under US$2.15/day 2017 PPP) in 2024, up from 29.9 percent in 2020. CPI inflation eased to 28.3 percent by end-May 2024 while food inflation rose to 40.5 percent, and by June 2024 half the population faced acute food insecurity. The fiscal position improved on capital-spending retrenchment (a 0.3 percent of GDP primary surplus in H1 2024) and the gourde appreciated 15.1 percent, while debt cancellation from Venezuela cut debt indicators from 24.2 percent of GDP in 2023 to 15.2 percent in 2024. Modest growth of 0.5 percent in 2025 and 1.5 percent in 2026 is projected assuming improved political stability and security ahead of elections expected before end-2025, but poverty is set to remain elevated at 36.6 percent by 2026 and the outlook is fraught with downside risks tied to the political transition.
Notes
World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook - Haiti country brief, Annual Meetings 2024 (October 2024) edition. Part of the semiannual MPO series.