Haiti Seasonal Monitor, July 2024

e \: ~. s FEWS NET La Famine Early Warning Systems Network Haiti - Seasonal Monitor August 1, 2024 Favorable conditions for crop development Key Messages Above-average rainfall conditions continue over Haiti. Environmental conditions are forecasted to become conducive to the development of a tropical depression later the week of July 29th or over the weekend. Some scattered areas show signs of negative vegetation health. Update on Seasonal Progress Consistent, above-average rainfall has been observed over Haiti. In selected southern and central areas, rainfall conditions are 25 to 50 percent above-average and 50 to 100 percent above average in the rest of the country (Figure 1). These conditions support normal crop development, retain soil moisture, and maintain river and water levels for irrigation systems. The slightly above-average temperature does not present problems, given these levels of available moisture. Harvest activities are set to begin early next month, with average yields expected across much of the country. However, below-average harvests are expected in scattered areas of Gonaives, Nord-Ouest, and Ouest, where below-average rainfall has been experienced since early May especially affecting small farmers. Hurricane Beryl did not impact the rainfall pattern across Haiti due to its path and the distance of the cloud's bands from Haiti. Despite the deficit of rainfall observed as Beryl passed by the island, average rainfall both prior to and following Beryl maintained sufficient moisture conditions to support normal development of crops. Forecasts “USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE The NOAA hurricane forecast indicates a 40 to 60 percent probability of a tropical depression developing later the week Figure 1 CHIRPS percent of average rainfall (%) (1981-2010), June 26 — July 25, 2024 CHIRPS 6-Pentad Percent of Average Rainfall (%) Period: 26)un2024 - 25Jul2024 Source: UCSB-USGS/FEWS NET Figure 2 Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook GS, Seven-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook 7] National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida . — All Disturbances (07;44)PMED I) iMoniJull29}2024) Current Disturbances and Seven-Day Cyclone Formation Chance: $3 <40% 9% 40-60% %% >60% Tropical or Sub-Tropical Cyclone: © Depression § Storm Hurricane © Post-Tropical Cyclone or Remnants Source: NHC/NOAA of July 29, with the forecast track suggesting a likely impact over Haiti (Figure 2). The updated forecast from the University of Colorado for this year’s hurricane season suggests that it is likely to resemble those of 1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, and 2020, further supporting expectations for an above- average season. Above average rainfall is expected based on the majority of mesoscale models for the rest of 2024 rainy season, Government. FEWS NET Haiti haiti@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Seasonal Monitor August 1, 2024 providing adequate rainfall to support crop activities. Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Haiti Seasonal Monitor August 1, 2024: Favorable conditions for crop development, 2024. About Seasonal Monitor FEWS NET's Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region's respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here. aN. lar SP FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network