(2026-05) Key Message Update: Erratic rainfall and persistent insecurity compromise the spring agricultural season

FEWS NET reports that, through September 2026, the combined effects of insecurity, economic disruption and difficulties accessing livelihoods will continue to drive high acute food insecurity, with most districts in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and a significant portion of the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), particularly areas hosting displaced households and populations most exposed to armed violence. The resurgence of armed violence in the ZMPP, Artibonite and Centre, along with rising kidnappings, continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade flows and income-generating activities; per the United Nations, about 30,000 people were displaced in the first half of May 2026 in areas north of Port-au-Prince, with more than 70% relocating to IDP sites, and security constraints limit access to farmland, inputs, labor and markets in the Ouest, Artibonite and Centre. Irregular spatiotemporal rainfall since the start of the spring season is disrupting crop development despite generally favorable seasonal totals, with alternating dry spells and heavy rainfall; flooding and landslides in the Nord-Ouest hit Saint-Louis-du-Nord, Port-de-Paix and Anse-à-Foleur, and potential crop losses point to below-average spring yields. An anticipated return of El Niño conditions in the second half of 2026 could bring below-average rainfall and harm autumn and winter yields. Food prices remain elevated despite slowing inflation: annual inflation eased to 20.6% in March 2026 (from 22.1% in February) but food inflation stays high at 22.9%, and in April staple prices were 63-87% above five-year averages, with continued increases in locally produced maize and black beans; high prices reflect transport costs, unofficial road-corridor payments, trade disruptions and rising fuel prices. Although the minimum wage was raised on 6 May, the adjustment does not offset the erosion of purchasing power.