(2026-02) Food Security Outlook: Sociopolitical crisis and insecurity limit food access despite decelerating inflation

This is FEWS NET's full Food Security Outlook for February to September 2026. Between February and September 2026, 3 to 3.5 million people are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4), with the most affected concentrated in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area (ZMPP), Artibonite, Centre and certain communes in the Nord-Ouest; persistent insecurity, high seasonal food prices and prolonged weakness in incomes continue to limit food access. Although overall inflation decelerated - from 32.2% in October 2025 to 25% in December, per IHSI - food commodity prices remain largely above the five-year average, with differences reaching up to 130% depending on markets and products; high transport costs, tied to movement restrictions and illegal payments on strategic routes (RN1, RN2, RN3), keep these atypically high price levels in place. Territorial control by armed groups in the ZMPP and along the main national corridors restricts the movement of people and goods, fragments supply chains, raises transaction costs and disrupts livelihoods, maintaining pressure on incomes from petty trade, day labor and agriculture, particularly in Artibonite and Centre. From February to May 2026, seasonal deterioration is expected to keep Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes for very poor urban households and IDPs living in ZMPP sites, while most rural areas remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). From June to September, spring harvests should bring a partial seasonal improvement, but below-average agricultural performance in insecurity-affected areas will limit it, keeping most areas in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) with pockets persisting in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Analysis is based on information available as of 15 February 2026.