(2026-01) Key Message Update: Security gains remain limited with no improvement on acute food insecurity
Summary — Despite intensified law-enforcement operations, security gains remain limited and insufficient to curb armed violence, keeping Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes across the country. Pressure on poor urban households and IDPs is intensifying and is expected to spread during the February-June lean season. January 8 violence displaced about 5,836 people (Port-au-Prince 42%, Delmas 29%, Cité Soleil 28%). Despite a stable exchange rate near 130 HTG/USD, food prices remain up to 130% above the five-year average.
Key Findings
- Security gains remain limited; Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) persist countrywide.
- Pressure on poor urban households and IDPs intensifying, spreading over the February-June lean season.
- January 8 violence displaced ~5,836 people (Port-au-Prince 42%, Delmas 29%, Cité Soleil 28%).
- Winter harvests (Mar-May) likely below average as insecurity cut area planted.
- Food prices up to 130% above the five-year average despite a stable ~130 HTG/USD exchange rate.
Full Description
FEWS NET reports that, despite some positive developments from intensified law-enforcement operations against gangs (a reported start to reconquering territory), security gains remain limited and insufficient to curb the resurgence of armed violence and kidnappings, driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes across the country. Several ZMPP neighborhoods - Cité Soleil, Croix-des-Bouquets, Port-au-Prince and IDP sites - remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), while most rural areas remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Pressure on poor urban households and displaced populations is intensifying, with negative coping (fewer meals, borrowing, begging, selling productive assets, internal migration) expected to become more widespread during the February-June lean season. Clashes involving heavy weapons and explosives continue to disrupt mobility, markets and essential services, and expanding gang territorial control limits trade flows, reduces economic activity and fuels new displacement; per IOM, armed violence on January 8 displaced about 5,836 people, concentrated in Port-au-Prince (42%), Delmas (29%) and Cité Soleil (28%). The winter season (pigeon peas, sorghum, beans, maize) is unfolding amid insecurity that has reduced area planted (Lower Artibonite, Lower Plateau, western communes including Montrouis, Arcahaie), so March-May harvests are likely below average, prolonging market dependence and cutting agricultural incomes. Staple prices stay atypically high - up to 130% above the five-year average - and despite a stable exchange rate around 130 HTG/USD, price stability has not improved food access as poor households' purchasing power remains severely eroded.