(2025-10) Food Security Outlook: Persistent insecurity and the effects of Hurricane Melissa maintain Crisis and Emergency food insecurity
Summary — In its October 2025-May 2026 outlook, FEWS NET projects between 3.0 and 3.49 million people needing food assistance, peaking in the April-May 2026 lean season. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in Cité Soleil, Port-au-Prince, Croix-des-Bouquets and metropolitan IDP sites, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) across many departments. More than 1.4 million people are displaced (about 210,000 in precarious metropolitan sites). Hurricane Melissa's late-October crop and infrastructure losses across the Grand Sud add to needs; inflation is 31.9% with food inflation above 35%.
Key Findings
- 0-3.49 million people projected to need food assistance (Oct 2025-May 2026), peaking April-May 2026 - a step up from 2.0-2.5M through May 2025.
- Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Cité Soleil, Port-au-Prince, Croix-des-Bouquets and metropolitan IDP sites; Crisis (IPC Phase 3) across departments.
- More than 1.4 million displaced, ~210,000 in precarious ZMPP sites.
- Hurricane Melissa (late October) caused extensive Grand Sud crop, livestock and infrastructure losses.
- Inflation 31.9%; food inflation above 35%; prices well above the five-year average.
Full Description
This is FEWS NET's full Food Security Outlook for October 2025 to May 2026. Persistent gang violence continues to drive forced displacement, disrupt income-earning activities and impair typical market functioning. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in Cité Soleil, Port-au-Prince, Croix-des-Bouquets and among IDPs living in sites in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area (ZMPP), while Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is anticipated in several departments. As insecurity intensifies in the ZMPP and gang activity expands into Artibonite and Centre, FEWS NET projects between 3.0 and 3.49 million people needing food assistance over the period, peaking in the April-May 2026 lean season - a marked step up from the 2.0-2.5 million estimated through May 2025. More than 1.4 million people are displaced, including about 210,000 in precarious ZMPP sites with limited access to markets and essential services, dependent on limited and intermittent assistance. Hurricane Melissa's late-October passage caused extensive losses of autumn crops and livestock across the Grand Sud (Sud, Sud-Est, Nippes, Grand'Anse) and parts of Ouest and Artibonite, damaging transport infrastructure, social facilities and IDP shelter sites, and increasing the number of people in need between November and December 2025. Inflation remains high at 31.9%, with food inflation above 35% in September 2025 and prices up 1.8% between August and September; food commodity prices stay well above the five-year average, eroding purchasing power. Analysis is based on information available as of 31 October 2025.