Key Message Update: Prolonged insecurity and deteriorating economic conditions sustain widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Cité Soleil

This Key Message Update covers May 2024. Although violence declined in both intensity and number in April and May relative to March, with roughly a 60 percent fall in violent events and deaths according to ACLED, transport along the main road corridors remains disrupted by gangs that continue to demand passage fees. That keeps staple food prices high, weighs on income-generating activities and restricts access to emergency food assistance. Households therefore continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, while Cité Soleil and groups of very poor households in other metropolitan communes, notably Croix-des-Bouquets, that are more exposed to violence and acute malnutrition, remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

Rainfall improved in cumulative terms in April and May, but the irregular spatial and temporal distribution observed since the start of the year continued and is expected to produce below-average spring harvests, in a context where farmers face below-normal incomes and prices above the five-year average, on top of the insecurity disrupting market functioning. The macroeconomic picture is uniformly negative: GDP contraction, high unemployment, high inflation, a negative trade balance and a large fiscal deficit, with uncertain prospects.

Despite the gourde appreciating more than 15 percent year-on-year against the US dollar in April 2024 and holding stable over the preceding six months, month-on-month headline inflation trended upward through the first quarter of 2024, driven mainly by housing and utility costs. Prices of both local and imported foods, including maize grain, black beans, rice, oil and wheat flour, remain atypically above the five-year average although stable in April relative to March. A FEWS NET study of off-farm income conducted in May 2024 found a decline in available employment opportunities across the main income sources, evidence that persistent gang violence continues to erode household livelihoods.