Haiti: Conflict Diagnostic 2023
- Four of nine CIFP indicator clusters are high-risk and five are deteriorating; gangs backed by oligarchs control roughly two-thirds of the country.
- Deaths from gang violence exceeded 2,200 in 2022, more than double 2021, and internal displacement grew from 2,100 (2019) to over 88,000 (August 2022).
- The economy contracted for a fourth straight year (-1.2 percent in 2022) with 47.2 percent inflation and the gourde falling from 89 to 148 per USD between 2021 and 2023.
- As of January 2023 Haiti had no elected national representatives; police (about 1 officer per 1,000 people, budget only 55 percent state-funded) are outgunned by gangs.
- The most likely six-month scenario is some form of non-military international intervention with continued sanctions on oligarchs and persistently low institutional capacity.
This diagnostic applies the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) framework to Haiti as of January-February 2023, rating nine indicator clusters by risk level and trend. It finds no legitimately functioning government institutions: all elected mandates had expired by January 2023, Parliament had been shuttered for four years, and gangs, armed and financed in part by wealthy oligarchs, controlled roughly two-thirds of the country, including at least 60 percent of Port-au-Prince. Deaths from gang violence surpassed 2,200 in 2022, more than double 2021, and internal displacement rose from 2,100 in 2019 to more than 88,000 by August 2022. Economic indicators trend uniformly negative: a fourth consecutive year of GDP contraction (-1.2 percent in 2022), inflation of 47.2 percent, close to 60 percent of Haitians below the poverty line, and a gourde that slid from 89 to 148 per US dollar between 2021 and 2023. Environment, government stability, history of armed conflict, and economic performance are rated high risk; human development, militarization, and demographic stress moderate; population heterogeneity and international linkages low.
How to cite
Carleton University, Haiti: Conflict Diagnostic 2023, https://carleton.ca/cifp/2023/haiti-conflict-diagnostic-2023/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=haiti-conflict-diagnostic-2023