Monetary Policy Note, third quarter of fiscal year 2025-2026

The Banque de la République d'Haïti's monetary policy note for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025-2026, April to June 2026. It reviews the world economy, the Haitian real sector and prices, public finances, the external sector, the BRH's policy decisions, the monetary aggregates, banking-sector results, the distribution of credit and the outlook.

Prices were driven by fuel. After conflict in the Persian Gulf began in late February, pump prices were raised by 29.5 to 34.7 percent at the start of the quarter and annual inflation accelerated to 21 percent in April. Fuel prices were cut in May and again in June, and with a stable exchange rate and the sterilization of excess liquidity, inflation slowed to 18.9 percent in June, above core inflation at 17.3 percent. The economic activity index (ICAE) was down 0.6 percent year on year in the second quarter, against 2.7 percent a year earlier. IOM counted 141,720 returnees from January to June 2026, 11 percent more than a year before.

Tax revenue fell 6.4 percent on the previous quarter while budget spending rose 4.3 percent to 63,919.32 million gourdes, with public investment up 130 percent and subsidies up 47.3 percent; the Treasury deficit was partly financed by the BRH. Imports rose to 1,305.03 million dollars on a larger oil bill and exports were 118.79 million dollars. Remittances through transfer houses reached 1,307.62 million dollars in the quarter, up 14.95 percent year on year, and the gourde closed at 130.5279 to the dollar.

The BRH left reserve requirements (40 and 53 percent for commercial banks, 28.5 and 41.5 percent for savings and housing banks) and the 6, 8 and 11.5 percent rates on its 7, 28 and 91-day bills unchanged since August 2022, while the stock of bills rose 57.9 percent to 26,930 million gourdes. It bought a net 98.98 million dollars on the foreign exchange market, with reserves covering more than seven months of imports, and issued Circular 10 on the governance of savings and credit cooperatives. M3 grew 3.04 percent to 845.25 billion gourdes. Bank assets rose 2.56 percent, non-performing loans fell to 7.99 percent of gross loans, and the loan-to-deposit ratio slipped to 19.45 percent. The Ouest department took 76.29 percent of the 77,787 loans granted. The BRH projects an eighth consecutive year of GDP contraction in fiscal 2026, between 1.5 and 1.9 percent, and names insecurity, the Middle East, tighter migration policy, the hurricane season and public finances as the main risks.