Haiti Macro Poverty Outlook

Haiti's GDP contracted for a seventh consecutive year in FY2025 amid persistent insecurity, which has displaced 1.4 million people. Hurricane Melissa compounded food insecurity and poverty, damaging crops. Following the dissolution of the Transitional Presidential Council, prospects hinge on the newly authorized Gang Suppression Force (GSF), progress toward elections planned for late 2026, and resolution of trade and migration policy uncertainties. Real GDP contracted by 2.7 percent in FY2025. Modest GDP growth is projected in FY2026 (0.6 percent) as the expanded GSF supports gradual improvements in security, accelerating to 1.9 percent in FY2027 and 2.2 percent in FY2028 following completion of elections.