(1986) Haiti Public Expenditure Review Volume II: Appendices
Summary — World Bank public expenditure review of Haiti providing detailed statistical appendices and economic projections for fiscal years 1985-1989.
Key Findings
- The Reform scenario could achieve 3.5% average real GDP growth through structural changes and increased exports.
- Without reforms, per capita income would fall 7% below FY85 levels by FY89 under the Status Quo scenario.
- Exports could grow from 16% to 18% of GDP by FY89 under the Reform scenario.
- Increased aid alone without policy reforms would not generate sustainable economic growth.
- All scenarios require increased external aid commitments of US$170-200 million annually.
Full Description
This World Bank report presents Volume II of Haiti's Public Expenditure Review, containing comprehensive statistical appendices and economic projections covering fiscal years 1985-1989. The document includes three economic scenarios: the Status Quo case assuming no IMF agreement and continued decline, the Reform case assuming structural reforms and increased aid, and the Aid case assuming increased aid without policy reforms.
The Reform scenario projects that Haiti's economy could achieve 3.5% average real GDP growth through structural changes, export growth, and improved investment efficiency. Under this scenario, exports would grow from 16% to 18% of GDP by FY89, though per capita consumption would only return to FY80 levels after FY89.
The Status Quo scenario presents a dire outlook with no economic growth, per capita income falling 7% below FY85 levels by FY89, and continued negative international reserves. The Aid-only scenario would maintain per capita incomes but achieve no real growth, highlighting that external assistance alone cannot solve Haiti's economic challenges.
The analysis emphasizes that internal policy reforms are critical for sustainable growth, as increased aid alone will not suffice to address Haiti's structural economic problems and widespread poverty.