Key Message Update: Escalating conflict worsening acute food insecurity

FEWS NET reports that acute food insecurity will remain widespread through the end of the February-June lean season, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) across most of the country and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) concentrated in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, particularly among IDPs and poor households affected by violence, who face significant consumption deficits and severely erosive coping strategies (begging, precarious or high-risk work including illicit activity, extreme cuts to non-food spending, unsustainable debt).

Persistent insecurity continues to drive large-scale displacement: recent attacks in Boucan-Carré (Plateau Central) displaced about 4,500 people, bringing total IDPs above 1.45 million, and further attacks were reported in Artibonite on March 28-29 (Jean-Denis, attributed to the 'Grand Grif' gang). Gang control of roadways limits trade flows, reduces income-earning opportunities and sustains high market dependence, especially in the ZMPP, Artibonite and Centre. Rising global fuel prices linked to Middle East tensions are expected to drive high inflation: given Haiti's heavy dependence on imports of food, fuel and agricultural inputs (fertilizers), higher world oil prices should translate into higher domestic transport and distribution costs and a generalized rise in food prices, with input costs (notably urea) hitting smallholders and spring production; the government's capacity to cushion the shock via subsidies appears limited, likely transferring much of the cost to consumers.

The spring season is beginning with the first rains but under unfavorable conditions - limited input access on high prices and insecurity, and restricted access to land and labor in Artibonite, Centre and Ouest - so farmers may reduce cultivated area, weakening harvest prospects.