Food Security Outlook, June 2024 - January 2025: Widespread Crisis food insecurity persists, exacerbated by violence, food price inflation and internal displacement

This is FEWS NET's full Food Security Outlook for June 2024 to January 2025. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are projected for June to September 2024, driven by food inflation of around 40 percent and by persistent insecurity that disrupts supply chains. Even with minimal seasonal improvement in prices and availability after the spring harvests, low-income households are expected to face significant difficulty meeting food needs. Crisis and Emergency outcomes persist from October 2024 to January 2025, hitting very poor urban and rural households and displaced people hardest, though communes in Sud, Sud-Est, Nord, Ouest and Centre are expected to improve from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as end-of-year remittances raise incomes, stimulate small informal trade and improve movement along the main road corridors.

Areas of concern are the arrondissements of Port-au-Prince, Croix-des-Bouquets and La Gonâve in Ouest, Môle-Saint-Nicolas in the lower Nord-Ouest, Saint-Marc in Artibonite and Baradères in Nippes; Cité Soleil remains the only commune in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Emergency food assistance is insufficient against needs: from January to March 2024 total beneficiaries covered under 4 percent of the population, a pattern expected to hold through January 2025, while the population in need is put at 2.0-2.5 million people through January 2025.

Widespread insecurity from gang violence and a deteriorated macroeconomic situation, including high commodity prices, together with rainfall variability, produce generalised Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Cité Soleil. Headline inflation has trended upward since February, and food inflation of about 40 percent is the binding constraint on access for poor and very poor households whose income sources and food supply have both been disrupted.