Food Security Outlook Update, April 2024: Political crisis and insecurity drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, impacting both the economy and the livelihoods of households

This Food Security Outlook Update covers April 2024 and delivers the revised analysis the March Key Message Update had deferred. Insecurity worsened in March relative to February, deepening food consumption deficits among poor households and increasing the number of people in need beyond expectations. April outcomes did not improve on March: the political crisis and insecurity continued to hit the economy and disrupt poor households' livelihoods, leaving most of the country in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), while Cité Soleil and pockets of very poor households in other violence-affected communes of the metropolitan area remained in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

Spring harvests could move some areas from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from June, but FEWS NET did not expect the number of people needing food aid to fall significantly over the projection period. Supply chains and market operations stayed disrupted: ACLED recorded a more than 30 percent nationwide increase in violent events and gang-related deaths between February and March, concentrated in the Ouest department. Although port operations improved somewhat in April, gang violence had forced a temporary closure in March, and Le Nouvelliste reported ship arrivals down by roughly 50 percent between late 2023 and March 2024.

Illegal levies imposed by gangs limit access to the country's largest oil terminal and disrupt fuel distribution to filling stations, driving sales on the informal market at more than 50 percent above normal rates, especially in provincial cities; higher fuel prices in turn keep staple food prices above last year and the five-year average. National annual inflation was 23 percent in February, up from 19 percent, with the highest rates in the Grand Sud at about 25 percent and in Sud-Est above 24 percent. Rainfall distribution improved slightly in April, but with farmers unable to invest, high input costs and delayed soil preparation and planting, the improvement is unlikely to lift the July harvests materially.