(2023-12) Food Security Outlook Update: Insecurity and poor fall harvests raise prices, causing widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes

Haiti - Food Security Outlook Update December 2023 Insecurity and poor fall harvests raise prices, causing widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes Key Messages Despite below-average production, fall harvests are temporarily improving the availability of certain local food products in some areas. However, gang-related violence and the rise in illicit tolls imposed by these groups are disrupting market supply chains, resulting in higher prices. As a result, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity continues in Haiti, although the number of food-insecure people across the country has fallen slightly compared with October and November. However, increased insecurity in Cité Soleil continues to keep it in an Emergency (IPC Phase 4) situation. Despite continued appreciation of the national currency against the USD, food commodity prices remain high compared with monthly, annual, and five-year trends, mainly due to disruptions in the supply chain. In addition, high transaction costs due to increasingly high illegal tolls imposed by armed gangs on national roads are contributing to atypically high prices. Except for the Cap-Haïtien and Ouanaminthe markets, where the relative availability of the fall black bean harvests led to a fall in prices, bean prices rose by up to 27.7 percent in November compared to October, particularly in the departments affected by bad weather in November. In addition, pigeon peas and sorghum are currently being harvested almost everywhere, although prices remain high. Current Situation Security situation: According to a report by the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH), quoted by the Haiti Partners Liaison and Security Office (PLSO), almost 80 percent of the Portau-Prince metropolitan area is either under the influence of armed gangs or directly controlled by them. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), there were more than 8,000 victims (3,960 dead, 1,432 injured, and 2,951 kidnapped) from January to December 8, 2023, far exceeding the number of victims in 2022. Cases of violence are particularly high in Port-au-Prince and Croix-des-Bouquets (Figure 1). According to the Center for Analysis and Research on Human Rights (CARDH), 362 cases of abduction were recorded in the third quarter of 2023, an increase of more than 140 percent compared to the FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. FEWS NET Haiti haiti@fews.net fews.net/latin-america-and-caribbean/haiti Food Security Outlook Update December 2023 second quarter, when 150 abductions were recorded. Gang violence continues to disrupt the market supply chain. This not only restricts the flow of goods, but also increases transaction costs due to the increasingly high illegal tolls imposed by the gangs that control most of the roads, particularly the national highways linking Port-au-Prince to the north (RN1), south (RN2), and center (RN3). This is impacting market supplies and commodity prices across the country. Rainfall conditions and progress of agricultural production: Below-average rainfall has been recorded throughout the country following a tropical disturbance in mid-November that caused flooding in various parts of the country, particularly in Grand'Anse, Nippes, Sud, and Nord-Ouest. Bean, sorghum, and pigeon pea harvests are underway in most departments, despite the below-average, irregular rainfall and farmers' low financial capacity. In the south, the current poor harvest, particularly of yams, maize, and sorghum, is helping to keep market prices high. The current rains are favoring planting operations in plots prepared in advance of the rainfall. Due to the closure of the border with the Dominican Republic, transportation costs for imported fertilizers have increased. In the Centre department, beans and especially pigeon peas have been harvested. However, low rainfall and a reduction in soil preparation activities have led to below-average production, reducing the local supply of food products. Rainfall is currently relatively regular in Nord-Ouest, where manioc, banana, yam, and peas have been harvested. In Artibonite, beans are being planted in the upper Artibonite, and the maize harvest is under way. In Nippes, the poor pigeon pea harvest and lack of rainfall in December are contributing to low local food availability. Figure 1 Number of violent incidents by district, June to December 2023 Markets and commodity prices: Markets continue to operate throughout the country, except for those in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, such as Croix-des-Bossales and Croix-desBouquets, among others, due to the renewed upsurge in clashes between gangs in and around downtown Port-au-Prince. This situation is affecting the movement of people and goods across the country. In addition to imported food, seasonal crops such as pigeon peas, roots, tubers, cereals, and other seasonal produce have declined with winter activities. This explains the rise in prices of all basic food products, both local and imported, in November (see Figure 2). Source: FEWS NET based on ACLED Furthermore, despite the reopening of the border by the Dominican data, December 2023 authorities, activities and trade in basic food products between the two countries remain officially limited. This is increasing smuggling across the Haitian-Dominican border, to the point where Dominican products such as eggs, oils, condiments, and wheat flour are appearing in local markets. Despite their availability, Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 Food Security Outlook Update December 2023 they are sold on the black market at exorbitant prices. Local retailers are continuing to increase their prices in Haitian markets. In addition to insecurity and the reduced availability of local food products, this is one of the main causes of the rise in prices of basic foodstuffs in November compared with October. On December 14, Haitian and Dominican citizens damaged and removed the Haitian barrier at the border between Ouanaminthe and Dajabon in order to facilitate trade. Despite the presence of customs officers and border police (Polifront), the Haitian barrier at the Haitian-Dominican border was forced open the very next day, and commercial activities resumed at the bi-national market on the Dajabon side. The Haitian departmental authorities have replaced the barrier but have not yet announced whether they intend to keep the border open or closed. Nationwide, the prices of grain maize and dried black beans monitored by FEWS NET fluctuated upwards by an average of 6.2 and 8 percent, respectively, between October and November. A five-pound pot of the two products cost over 373 and 1,147 gourdes, respectively, compared with 351 and 1,059 gourdes in the previous month. At the same time, the prices of imported products such as rice, cooking oil, and wheat flour, among others, have risen considerably. For example, on average, the price of imported rice with 4 percent broken grains fluctuated upwards by 15 percent between October and November. Overall, retail prices for all commodities, whether local or imported, remain more than 100 percent higher than the five-year average, as shown in Figure 2. Sources of income: The main sources of income for poor households include petty trade, the sale of agricultural and nonagricultural labor, and the sale of fishery products in coastal areas. Compared with October, there has been a slight improvement in small business revenues, but disruptions to the transport of goods, resulting from insecurity linked to gang violence, are keeping revenues below normal. Farming activities linked to the fall and winter crop production seasons in most parts of the country are not generating a sustained demand for farm workers. More stable weather conditions relative to October have favored fishing, leading to a slight seasonal improvement in catches and increased, albeit still below-average, revenues. Income from migration continues to lag behind average levels, primarily due to the border closure between Haiti and the Dominican Republic, a measure implemented in response to Haitians taking water from the Massacre River. Figure 2 Change in the average price in gourdes of basic cereals (HTG/kg), April 2019 to November 2023 Source: FEWS NET Spread of cholera: In recent weeks, the country has continued to experience an increase in suspected cases of cholera. The latest statement from the Ministry of Public Health published on November 7 recorded 73,689 suspected cases of cholera; of the 12,174 tests (17%) administered, 4,080 (34%) were confirmed cases. The positivity rate in recent months has been as high as 40 to 60 percent. Malnutrition: The results of the IPC workshop on acute malnutrition in November highlight significant variations in the malnutrition situation in Haiti, influenced by various factors. Artibonite and the Sud-Est are currently facing a situation of Alert (IPC AMN Phase 2), which is expected to continue until May 2024. However, malnutrition rates in these two departments are expected to increase to Serious (IPC AMN Phase 3) levels from June to November 2024 due to the deterioration in minimum food consumption conditions, high levels of acute food insecurity, and civil unrest. Nord is expected to remain in a Serious (IPC AMN Phase 3) situation until November 2024, with challenges related to cholera, fuel shortages, insecurity, and acute food insecurity. The other regions also face complex factors impacting food security, indicating the need for targeted interventions to improve the living conditions of local populations. Emergency humanitarian aid: According to data from the Food Security Cluster, the cumulative number of beneficiaries of emergency food aid of all types was almost 1.57 million between January and October 2023, which represents less than 10 percent of the total number of people in need. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 Food Security Outlook Update December 2023 Current Food Security Outcomes High prices, insecurity, low incomes, and irregular rainfall in space and time are the determining factors in food security, making livelihoods fragile in most of the country. The fall harvests, although below average, are temporarily helping to improve food availability of certain products in certain localized markets. However, ongoing gang violence and the increase in illegal tolls imposed by gangs are disrupting the market supply chain, leading to higher prices. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity continues to be widespread in Haiti, with Cité Soleil remaining in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), although the number of food-insecure people across the country has fallen slightly compared with October and November. Cité Soleil is plagued by recurrent armed conflict, as well as the extreme poverty that households are facing. In addition, the municipality has the highest rate of global acute malnutrition of any region in the country, according to SMART 2023 data. Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year Source: FEWS NET Updated Assumptions The assumptions in the October 2023 to May 2024 food security outlook report remain unchanged, with the exception of the updated agroclimatology assumption that above-average precipitation and above-average temperatures are expected until early spring 2024, according to NOAA, USGS, and the Climate Hazards Center. Projected Outlook through May 2024 The period from December 2023 to January 2024 coincides with the fall harvests (pigeon peas, maize, yams, roots, and tubers) and also with the start of the winter season in the irrigated plains and semi-humid mountains. It is also the end-of-year period when sales and purchases are higher, leading to an improvement in certain sources of income, such as casual work, petty trade, and the sale of charcoal in urban areas, alongside remittances from abroad. Household food consumption will slightly improve until January, accompanied by a slight reduction in the number of food-insecure people (IPC Phase 3 and worse). This reduction will not be enough to bring about a phase change, given the high level of food prices compared with the five-year average. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity will continue to be observed across the country. In the Port-au-Prince Metropolitan Area, especially in regions under the control of gangs, extended periods of food scarcity are expected among poor and very poor households. A growing number of households will be able to sell off their productive assets but will still need to engage in negative emergency adaptation strategies. Cité Soleil will continue to experience an Emergency (IPC Phase 4) situation during the period under review. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4 Food Security Outlook Update December 2023 The period from February to May 2024 is the lean period, when food reserves from the fall and winter harvests are generally limited, leading to a period of shortage or difficulty in accessing food. Household reliance on market purchases will increase amid limited incomes and high prices. The result will be a gradual increase in the number of food-insecure households compared with the previous year, until May. As a result, in some areas, the area-level classification Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3), while in other areas, there will be an increase in the share of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during this period. Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Haiti Food Security Outlook Update December 2023: Insecurity and poor fall harvests raise prices, causing widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, 2023. About Food Security Outlook Update This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5