(2024-07) WFP VAM Bulletin, Recap Quarter 2 2024: Food Security Analysis

HAITI July 2024 WFP VAM Bulletin Food security analysis Key points The food consumption situation in Haiti slightly improved in May and June 2024, although it remains alarmingly high, with 70% of households experiencing poor or borderline food consumption compared to 72% in April, which was one of the highest levels recorded since mid-2021. An estimated 8.3 million people had insufficient food consumption in June 2024. After steadily rising until April 2024, the cost of the food basket in Haiti decreased to 25,261 HTG in June 2024, indicating an expected increase in household purchasing power and improved food consumption levels in the coming months. Forecasts do suggest a national improvement in July, with the exception of a few departments that are facing specific challenges. From April to July 2024, gang-related violence in Haiti led to numerous casualties, mainly in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, its outskirts, and Artibonite department. Despite a slight decline in violence levels in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the previous ones, the situation remains highly volatile. The 2024 rainy season started with deficits in March but saw above-average rainfall in April. May stabilized with close-tonormal conditions while June brought intense precipitation from Cyclone Beryl. Wetter-than-average conditions are expected for the rest of the season, influenced by the transition to La Niña, which increases cyclone risks in the months ahead. Page 1 1. Food security analysis [A] Levels of insufficient food consumption slightly improved by quarter’s end in Haiti JUNE 2024 -12,000 people Decrease from 3 months ago 8.28M People -274,000 People Decrease from 1 month ago with insufficient food consumption in June 2024 At country level, food consumption in Haiti saw a slight improvement during the second quarter of 2024. In April 2024, the prevalence rate of food consumption insufficiency1 was alarmingly high at 72.1%, one of the highest recorded since WFP’s monitoring began in mid-2021, and just below the peak of 72.4% in October 2023. This high rate in April may be linked to the consequences of a prolonged period of heightened insecurity in early 2024, including the Mariani roadblock in January and intensified gang-related assaults in February and March in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area. Besides, the closure of the Dominican Republic’ border, since September 2023, has exacerbated food shortages in Haiti. Figure 1. Prevalence (% of households) of insufficient food consumption in Haiti as of June 2024. Source: WFP, Geopoll/HungerMapLIVE In May 2024, the ratios of households with insufficient food consumption slightly decreased to 69.7% and remained nearly unchanged at 69.6% in June 2024. This means approximately 8.28 million people2 in Haiti have a poor or borderline food consumption. The departments with the highest prevalence rates are South (76%), West (74%) and North-East (74%), as shown in Figure 1. Most departments saw a slight improvement in June compared to May, except for West, Nippes and South. In the South department, the prevalence of insufficient food consumption increased dramatically by 20 percentage points in just one month. Nationwide, the percentage of households using emergency or crisis coping strategies also shows a similar trend (see Figure 2), with a continuous decline since its peak in March 2024, when two out of three households were resorting to such strategies. Focus on metropolitan area of Port-au-prince Insufficient food consumption (FCS Poor or Borderline) 72% 70% 70% 66% 65% Q2 2024 Figure 2. Monthly trend (in % of households) of insufficient food consumption and negative coping strategies in Haiti from January 2023 to June 2024. Source: WFP, Geopoll/HungerMapLIVE 1.69M People JUNE 2024 ZM-PAP Figure 3. Prevalence (% of households) of insufficient food consumption in ZMPAP as of June 2024. Source: WFP, Geopoll/HungerMapLIVE Insufficient food consumption (FCS Poor or Borderline) 80% 72% 73% 64% 63% 58% Use of negative coping strategies (emergency or crisis) Q2 2024 Figure 4. Monthly trend (in % of households) of insufficient food consumption and negative coping strategies in ZM-PAP from January 2023 to June 2024. Source: WFP, Geopoll/ HungerMapLIVE July 2024 WFP VAM Bulletin | Recap Q2 2024 62% Use of negative coping strategies (emergency or crisis) +19,000 increase from 3 months ago -56,000 Decrease In line with national with insufficient food consumption in ZM-PAP trends, the from 1 month ago in June 2024 prevalence of food consumption insufficiency decreased in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area throughout the second quarter of 2024. By June, an estimated 1.69 million people, or 73% of households, reported having poor or borderline food consumption. Although still alarming, this marks a relative improvement from April when the prevalence rate was 80%, the highest recorded since mid-2021. Food consumption levels vary across the communes of the Port-auPrince metropolitan area. In Cité-Soleil, about 92% of households had insufficient food consumption in June 2024, corresponding to the most severe prevalence rate recorded in the metropolitan area for that month (see Figure 3). The situation worsened notably in Delmas, with a 14 percentage point increase from the previous month, whereas Tabarre and Pétion-Ville saw improvements, with rates dropping from 70% to 47% and 64% to 51%, respectively. The percentage of households using emergency or crisis coping strategies in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area also slightly decreased during the second quarter of 2024, from 64% in April to 58% in June. 1 2 The food consumption is considered insufficient when the Food Consumption Score (FCS) is Poor or Borderline. Note that the numbers of people with insufficient food consumption are not comparable with IPC food insecure figures. Page 2 2. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS [B] & SITUATION FORECASTS [C] The cost of the food basket decreased in May and June after reaching peak values In June 2024, the food basket’s cost for a family of five in Haiti was 25,261 HTG, down from 28,068 HTG in May 2024. After rising from January to April 2024, peaking at 33,898 HTG nationally and 29,380 HTG in Port-au-Prince metropolitan area due to securityrelated supply issues, the cost of the food basket decreased by 5% in May and 10% in June. This drop is likely due to the relative improvement of the security situation and a gradual resumption of supplies to other departments. However, the South-East and North-East departments, bordering the Dominican Republic, still face high food basket costs of 34,147 HTG and 31,246 HTG, respectively, due to ongoing border reopening issues. In ZM-PAP, the food basket cost, while higher than the national average, also decreased by 5% in June, falling to 29,063 HTG. Price (in HTG) Evolution of the food basket cost from January to June 2024 Figure 5. Evolution of the food basket cost for a family of five from January to June 2024, at national level and in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area. Source: WFP Haiti (July 2024) Evolution of the population with insufficient food consumption from January to June 2024 and predictions for July Figure 6. Population with insufficient food consumption in Haiti. Actual data is in blue, predictions are in red, plotted with confidence intervals. Source: WFP RAM HungerMapLIVE After peaking in mid-April 2024, levels of food consumption insufficiency showed a relative improvement, as indicated by the overall decreasing trend in Figure 6. In May, eight of Haiti’s ten departments saw improvements, with the exception of the South and Centre departments, where the situation remained unchanged. In June, this positive trend continued in most departments. Forecasts for July suggest a national improvement, with fewer people experiencing insufficient food consumption. This is mainly attributed to improved security and the expected decrease in food basket costs following the current downward trend. However, the model predicts a deterioration in food consumption in the North, North West, and Nippes departments. 3. SEASONAL MONITORING [D] Above-normal conditions observed, amid the ongoing El Niño-La Niña transition With the main rainy season now in progress in Haiti, rainfall conditions are being closely monitored. While March 2024 saw rainfall deficits in most regions except for South and Nippes, sparking concerns of a delay in the onset of the rainy season (as was the case in 2023), rainfall conditions have improved since April, showing positive anomalies (Figure 7) : most communes of Haiti experienced rainfall levels above 120% of average, with half the country experiencing above 140% rainfall conditions during this month. May saw rainfall conditions closer to average, or slightly above, but without extreme variations. Eventually, June brought again intense precipitations in all communes of Haiti, with particularly extreme values in the southern regions, where rainfall anomalies exceeded 180% of average. This was due to Cyclone Beryl passing approximately 240km south of Haiti coastline and causing significant impacts in the region. Rainfall forecasts indicate that wetter-than-average conditions are likely for the rest of the 2024 rainy season. With one of the strongest El Niños on record having officially ended, a rapid transition to La Niña conditions is expected between July and September 2024. The development of La Niña is conducive to increased Atlantic hurricane activity, necessitating close monitoring of potential cyclonic events. Figure 7. Rainfall anomalies (percentage of average) by commune in March, April, May and June 2024 in Haiti. Source: CHIRPS/UCSB, processed by WFP RAM-C July 2024 WFP VAM Bulletin | Recap Q2 2024 Page 3 4. Security situation [E][A] Insecurity levels experienced a slight decline in the second quarter of 2024 Insecurity levels experienced a slight decline in the second quarter of 2024 compared to previous ones More than one household in three in West department struggled to secure livelihoods or food due to violence Between April and mid-July 2024, violent events in Haiti resulted in numerous fatalities and injuries. Incidents registered by ACLED over that period are spatially represented in Figure 8, categorised by event type and associated number of fatalities. According to the data, the majority of incidents are violence against civilians and battles. They are mostly concentrated in the West department, specifically in Port-au-Prince metropolitan area and its outskirts (Gressier, Thomazeau), as well as in Artibonite. WFP's real-time monitoring system (HungerMapLIVE) also collects information on household perceptions of their security across Haiti. Figures 10 and 11 display the percentages of households reporting that violence and insecurity limited their ability to secure their livelihoods or obtain food, broken down by department (Figure 10) and by commune in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area (Figure 11). Nationally, 23% of households reported that violence and insecurity hindered their ability to secure their livelihoods or obtain food during the first quarter of 2024, marking a +5 percentage point increase from the last quarter of 2023. In the second quarter of 2024, six departments outside the capital (Artibonite, Centre, Nippes, South, North and North-West) saw a decline in this issue, while in four departments (West, South-East, Grande’Anse and North-East), more households reported facing this shock, with increases of 1 to 3 percentage points compared to the first quarter. % households Figure 8. Violent events recorded in Haiti between 01 April and 12 July 2024. Source: ACLED (2024) Figure 9 shows the daily counts of violent events and of fatalities from January 2023 to mid-July 2024. According to the data, the deadliest peaks of insecurity occurred in April-May 2023, in November 2023, and in the first quarter of 2024. After this surge in violence during the previous quarter, insecurity levels appear relatively lower in the second quarter, though the situation remains severe, with nearly 200 fatalities recorded. Notably, gang -related violence led to significant casualties in in Artibonite and in Port-au-Prince metropolitan area. More specifically, on June 30, an attack in Gressier resulted in over 20 fatalities and a subsequent one the day after caused at least 5 more deaths. The security situation in Haiti remains highly volatile. Number of fatalities Number of violent events About 200 fatalities registered between 01 April 2024 and 12 July 2024, most of which in the West department Figure 10. Percentages of households affected by violence and insecurity, limiting their capacity to secure livelihoods or get food at national level, from the first quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2024. Source: WFP, Geopoll/HungerMapLIVE In the West department, which concentrates nearly 37% of the population, especially in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, which is the most affected by security issues across the country, the number of households reporting difficulties in obtaining food due to insecurity has continuously increased since the third quarter of 2023 (when the ratio of households impacted was 23%), reaching 38% in the second quarter of 2024. However, in the communes of Port-au-Prince, Pétion-ville and Tabarre, there was are a drop of 2 to 5 percentage points compared to the first quarter of 2024. % households Figure 11. Percentages of households affected by violence and insecurity, limiting their capacity to secure livelihoods or get food in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, from the first quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2024. Source: WFP, Geopoll/HungerMapLIVE Figure 9. Daily count of fatalities due to violent events and daily number of violent events in Haiti from January 2023 to mid-July 2024. Source: ACLED (2024) July 2024 WFP VAM Bulletin | Recap Q2 2024 Page 4 methodologies [A] WFP’s continuous, near real-time monitoring system (HungerMapLIVE) [D] Climate analysis and seasonal monitoring This system collects thousands of survey data points per day remotely, through live calls made from call centers around the world, including Haiti. The sample is 116 households per department, and 120 per commune in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, selected monthly by random telephone dialing, to be interviewed. These analyses enable to monitor some key food security indicators, such as insufficient food consumption or household coping strategies. The prevalence rates of insufficient food consumption presented in this bulletin should not be compared to the proportion of food insecure people as provided by the IPC classification exercises - which consider many more indicators than insufficient food consumption and coping strategies. Climate and seasonal analyses are conducted by WFP RAM Climate and Earth Observation team. These analyses are based on medium-term records of precipitation and vegetation (starting in 1981 to nearpresent). Rainfall data is derived from the CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) rainfall estimate, produced by the University of California. It is a 35+ year quasi-global rainfall dataset. These data combine satellite imagery with in-situ station data to create gridded precipitation time series for trend analysis and seasonal drought monitoring. Useful link : dataviz.vam.wfp.org/seasonal_explorer/ rainfall_vegetation/help Useful link : hungermap.wfp.org/ [B] Economic analysis (MEB) The MEB is the monetary threshold that households need to cover their essential needs through the market. The composition was designed for a typical household of five people (two adults and three children). The multipurpose MEB for extended crisis of 54,743 HTG (29,108 HTG food and 25,635 HTG non-food) as determined by the Country Cash Working Group in March 2024. The MEB cost was adjusted in August 2023 (at the time of the ENSSAN survey) by applying the Oxford adult equivalence scale to account for economies of scale in sharing certain goods among household members to the expenditure data. Useful link : docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000074198/ download/ [E] Monitoring insecurity and violent events with ACLED database The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) database compiles and analyzes disaggregated data for mapping crisis areas. It collects information on dates, actors, locations, fatalities, and types of violent events reported around the world. This data is updated on a weekly basis. ACLED database is not exhaustive and does not claim to collect all violent incidents, especially for areas that are hard to access or have little information coverage. While this data is not a primary source for day-to-day monitoring of security operations, it provides important information on trends over time and possible geographic expansions of insecurity in crisis areas. Useful link : acleddata.com/about-acled/ [C] HungerPred : forecasting food security using machine learning A machine learning algorithm (Reservoir Computing) is applied to predict the prevalence of insufficient food consumption in Haiti. This model, suited for time-series prediction with limited data, uses relevant local variables and specificities. It forecasts daily trends by iteratively incorporating previous days' forecasts. The predictions cover the next 30, 60, or 90 days, at national and department levels. Data for the target variable (insufficient food consumption) is sourced from the HungerMap monitoring system, with secondary inputs representing key drivers of food insecurity, such as food consumption levels, coping strategies, rainfall and vegetation anomalies, currency trends, inflation, price spikes, and fatalities from violent events. Useful link : https://hungermap.wfp.org/ World Food Programme | Haiti Karibe Hotel, Juvenat 7, Route du Canapé-Vert, 1610 Petion Ville Contacts: Smaila GNEGNE, Head of RAM unit : smaila.gnegne@wfp.org Laure BOUDINAUD, Geospatial analyst : laure.boudinaud@wfp.org Photos : Theresa Piorr © WFP (2022) Page 5