Haiti - Pathways to Growth Amid Rising Risks

Haiti's medium-term growth prospects are being shaped by a security and political crisis that has displaced roughly 1.47 million people, about 12 percent of the population, and pushed the economy into a seventh consecutive year of contraction in FY2025. The FY2025 output shortfall against the pre-crisis 2018 forecast equals 46.5 percent of GDP, inflation stays above 20 percent, and an estimated 5.7 million people face acute food insecurity.

Outside the capital, the picture is more mixed: Cap-Haïtien handles a growing share of maritime cargo, industrial parks in the northern corridor sustain roughly 16,000 manufacturing jobs, customs revenue collection continues, and the diaspora sent a record US$4.4 billion in remittances in FY2025. The report frames recovery around restoring security and a functioning state in the metropolitan area while building on the relative stability of the northern and southern corridors, and identifies job creation, the transition to the UN-backed Gang Suppression Force, and sectoral constraints in agriculture, apparel, and services as the priorities that will determine the pace of recovery.