Economic Activity Conjunctural Indicator (ICAE), fiscal year 2025-2026
- Records the global economic activity indicator essentially flat between the first two quarters of fiscal 2025-2026, at 120.0 then 119.6, a quarterly variation of minus 0.3 percent.
- Shows that stability concealing violent sectoral swings: the primary sector index moved minus 26.5 percent in the first quarter and plus 33.8 percent in the second, and agriculture minus 26.8 then plus 34.2 percent, which is seasonality rather than recovery.
- Records construction rising 48.1 percent in the first quarter and then 49.9 percent on one measure, the strongest movement of any branch.
- Shows non-market services as the highest index level at 176.0 rising to 178.9, against the primary sector at 51.2 and 68.5, so the spread between branches is more than threefold.
- Records commerce, the largest market branch, at 133.9 then 137.3, and hotels and restaurants at 142.2 then 144.6, both above the global index.
- Attributes the indicator jointly to IHSI and the ministry's economic studies and forecasting directorate, and shows the third and fourth quarter columns still empty, so the fiscal year was incomplete at publication.
MEF table of the Economic Activity Conjunctural Indicator (ICAE) for fiscal year 2025-2026, reporting index levels and quarter-on-quarter changes by branch of activity for the first two quarters. Overall the ICAE stands at 120.0 in Q1 and 119.6 in Q2. The three broad sectors move differently: the primary sector is far below base at 51.2 in Q1 before recovering to 68.5 in Q2, a rise of 33.8% after a fall of 26.5%, which is the seasonal shape of the agricultural calendar rather than a change in trend; the secondary sector is above base at 136.7 then 133.9; and the tertiary sector is highest at 144.6 then 137.3. Within the tertiary sector the spread is wide: non-market services at 200.9 and 198.0 and transport and communications at 176.0 and 178.9 sit far above hotels and restaurants at 80.2 and 82.2, the only tertiary branch below base. Trade falls 13.9% between the two quarters, from 121.1 to 104.3. Electricity and water production remains close to base at 96.0 and 100.4. The table is attributed to IHSI and MEF/DEEP, so the underlying index is the Institut Haïtien de Statistique et d'Informatique's, presented here with the Ministry's Direction des Études Économiques et Prévisions.
How to cite
Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), Economic Activity Conjunctural Indicator (ICAE), fiscal year 2025-2026, https://www.mef.gouv.ht/