(2021) Estimating the Potential Economic Impact of Haiti’s 2021 Earthquake
Summary — This paper estimates the potential economic damages of the 2021 earthquake in Haiti using econometric techniques. It finds that damages could reach US$1.6 billion (9.6 percent of GDP) for a scenario with 2,500 dead or missing, with confidence intervals ranging from US$1 billion to US$2.5 billion.
Key Findings
- Economic damages are estimated to reach US$1.6 billion (9.6 percent of GDP) for a scenario with 2,500 dead or missing.
- Damages could range from US$1.5 billion (8.9 percent of GDP) to US$1.7 billion (10.3 percent of GDP), depending on the number of casualties.
- The 2021 earthquake's impact is expected to be significantly lower than the 2010 earthquake due to the affected areas being less densely populated.
Full Description
This paper employs a simple methodology to estimate the potential economic damages of the 2021 earthquake in Haiti. The country registered a magnitude 7.2 earthquake off the South Coast on August 14, 2021, resulting in significant casualties and infrastructure damage. Economic damages are estimated using econometric techniques and a dataset on natural disasters across a wide range of countries. Based on this analysis, damages for the 2021 earthquake in Haiti are estimated to reach US$1.6 billion (9.6 percent of GDP) for a scenario with an impact of 2,500 dead or missing. The paper provides early estimates to inform the ongoing Post-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDNA) and assist the government and its international partners in planning relief and reconstruction efforts.