(2016) Special Report: FAO/GIEWS Food Availability and Market Assessment Mission to Haiti, 23 May 2016

SPECIAL REPORT FAO/GIEWS FOOD AVAILABILITY AND MARKET ASSESSMENT MISSION TO HAITI 23 May 2016 This report has been prepared by Felix Baquedano (FAO) under the responsibility of the FAO Secretariat with information from official and other sources. Since conditions may change rapidly, please contact the undersigned for further information if required: Paul Racionzer Economist/Team Leader, EST/GIEWS Trade and Markets Division, FAO E-mail: giews1@fao.org Please note that this Special Report is also available on the Internet as part of the FAO World Wide Web www.fao.org at the following URL address: http://www.fao.org/giews/ and http://www.wfp.org/foodsecurity/reports/CFSAM. The Special Alerts/Reports can also be received automatically by E-mail as soon as they are published, by subscribing to the GIEWS/Alerts report ListServ. To do so, please send an E-mail to the FAO-Mail-Server at the following address: mailserv@mailserv.fao.org, leaving the subject blank, with the following message: subscribe GIEWSAlertsWorld-L To be deleted from the list, send the message: unsubscribe GIEWSAlertsWorld-L Please note that it is possible to subscribe to regional lists to only receive Special Reports/Alerts by region: Africa, Asia, Europe or Latin America (GIEWSAlertsAfrica-L, GIEWSAlertsAsia-L, GIEWSAlertsEurope-L and GIEWSAlertsLA-L). These lists can be subscribed to in the same way as the worldwide list. Acknowledgements The author would like to thank the authorities of the Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development of Haiti and in particular the Sub-structure for Agricultural Statistics and Informatics as well as the National Coordination of Food Security for their assistance and collaboration in the drafting of this report. The author would also like to acknowledge the contributions made by the WFP and FEWSNET to the Mission and report. SPECIAL REPORT FAO/GIEWS FOOD AVAILABILITY AND MARKET ASSESSMENT MISSION TO HAITI 23 May 2016 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 2016 The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. 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Cover page photographs by: Felix Baquedano. -5- Table of contents Page Acronyms .................................................................................................................................. 6 Highlights .................................................................................................................................. 7 1. OVERVIEW ..................................................................................................................... 7 2. BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................. 8 3. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ............................................................................. 8 4. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ................................................................................. 13 5. FOOD AVAILABILITY................................................................................................... 20 6. MARKET CONDITIONS AND PRICES ......................................................................... 22 7. EL NIÑO PHENOMENON AND EARLY OUTLOOK FOR MAIN 2016 SPRING CROP SEASON ..................................................................................... 27 8. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.............................................................. 29 9. REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 30 ANNEX CNSA Maize Equivalent Tonnes (MET) Conversion Factors ............................. 31 -6- Acronyms CCBS CIA CNSA DOP EFSA ENEPA ENSO FAI FAO FEWSNET GDP GIEWS HTG IADB IMF IRI MARNDR MEF NDVI OANDA OCHA SECM SSSAI TCI UAL UN UNDP USD USDA VHI VCI WFP Country Commodity Balance Sheet Central Intelligence Agency National Coordination of Food Security of the Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development Dominican Peso Emergency and Food Security Assessment of the WFP National Survey of Agricultural Production Estimates El Niño Southern Oscillation Food and Agricultural Imports Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Famine Early Warning Systems Network Gross Domestic Product Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture Gourde Inter-American Development Bank International Monetary Fund International Research Institute for Climate and Society of Columbia University Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development Ministry of Economy and Finance Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Canadian-based foreign exchange company Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs of the United Nations Single Equation Error Correction Model Sub-structure for Agricultural Statistics and Informatics of the Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development Temperature Condition Index Usable Agricultural Land United Nations United Nations Development Programme United States Dollar United States Department of Agriculture Vegetation Health Index Vegetation Condition Index World Food Programme -7- Highlights  Cereals and starchy roots production in 2015 dropped to its lowest level in 12 years, after two consecutive years of drought.  Food availability in 2015/16 is being sustained by imports and a drawdown of stocks.  Prices at the beginning of 2016 were at near record levels for maize and at record levels for black beans.  To increase food availability and reduce the high level of food prices in the near to medium term, assistance to the agricultural sector should be broad and not limited to the most affected areas of the country. 1. OVERVIEW FAO fielded a Food Availability and Market Assessment Mission to Haiti between 14 February and 2 March 2016 to evaluate the state of food availability and the stability of markets at the national level. The Mission was composed of FAO, the National Coordination for Food Security of Haiti (CNSA) and the Sub-structure for Agricultural Statistics and Informatics (SSSAI), both agencies of the Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development of Haiti (MARNDR). The World Food Programme (WFP) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) also collaborated closely with the Mission. The main spring agricultural season (April/August), accounting for between 50 and 60 percent of the national cereal output, was affected in 2015 by severe and prolonged dry weather, related to the 2015/16 El Niño episode, for a second consecutive year. As a result 2015 outputs of cereals, pulses and starchy roots have been estimated to have declined by 28, 18 and 16 percent, respectively, from the previous year’s already drought-reduced level. Recent assessments have estimated the number of severely food insecure people due to the drought at 1.5 million. With domestic production of food crops sharply down in 2015, food availability is being sustained by higher levels of imports, particularly rice and wheat, and a significant draw down of food reserves. The weak macro-economic environment, including a strong depreciation of the Haitian gourde, high rates of inflation and higher-thananticipated budget deficits could make it more difficult to sustain current levels of imports in 2016. Food prices remain high and at near-record levels for important staples such as maize meal and beans. However, low international prices for rice have limited significant increases in local prices for this commodity, somewhat offsetting the impact of the strong depreciation of the gourde. The high prices have adversely affected food access by households most affected by the drought, with food purchases representing close to two-thirds of household expenditure. To cope with high prices, local populations are substituting these commodities with starchy roots and tubers, reducing purchases and/or increasing purchases on credit. The impact the persisting El Niño episode could have on the next main spring agriculture season is uncertain. Although the latest consensus forecast predicts a 76 percent probability that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will reach neutral conditions during the May-July period, with the bulk of the 2016 spring season planting occurring between late March and early June, it is likely that precipitation levels for the season may again be affected by ENSO. However, according to data obtained from remote sensing in the first 80 days of 2016, vegetative development was significantly improved compared to the same period in 2015, despite erratic and below-average rainfall levels predominating. Sustaining the purchasing power of households at average historical levels and support to agricultural activities are two strategies to consider to mitigate the effects of the drought and to allow for the resumption of normal agricultural activities. Rural households that have been decapitalized after two consecutive years of drought, have to consider using their limited resources to either buy food or agricultural inputs. Sustaining households’ purchasing power, therefore, would facilitate the normal resumption of agricultural activities by providing the necessary resources to purchase both food and seeds. -8To increase food availability and reduce the high level of food prices in the near to medium term, assistance to the agricultural sector should not be limited to the most affected areas of the country. The areas that were most affected by the drought conditions in 2014 and 2015, tend to also have the lowest level of agricultural productivity. In the most affected areas, assistance to increase the resilience of agricultural activities to drought and other climate-related events should be followed, while in the more productive areas, assistance should focus on strengthening or rebuilding agricultural productive capacity. 2. BACKGROUND To ascertain a more comprehensive understanding of the food access situation, following the drought-reduced 2015 harvest, FAO fielded a Mission to the country between 14 February and 2 March 2016 to assess the state of food availability and the stability of markets at the national level. The Mission was composed of FAO, CNSA and SSSAI, both agencies of MARNDR. WFP and Famine Early Warning Systems Network also collaborated closely with the Mission. The Mission reviewed existing information, in particular the results of the National Survey for Estimation of Agricultural Production (ENEPA), produced since 2014 by SSSAI/MARNDR, with assistance from the National Agricultural Statistic Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and price data collected by CNSA. Furthermore, the Mission filled important information gaps by visiting several locations around the country that had not been included in any recent assessments. 3. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT A growing urban population, high rural poverty and significant income inequality Haiti is located between the Caribbean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean and comprises one-third of the land mass of the Island of Hispaniola, which it shares with the Dominican Republic along a border that is 376 km long. Administratively, Haiti is divided into ten departments, 41 arrondissements and 133 communes (Figure 1). Figure 1: Haiti - Administrative divisions Source: Ministry of Agriculture of Haiti. Latest available UN population estimates show that in 2015 approximately 10.7 million people inhabited the country (Table 1). Over 60 percent of the population is concentrated in three departments: Ouest, Artibonite and Nord (Table 1). The Capital, Port au Prince, located in the Ouest Department, is the most populous city of the country. The country’s population is young, with almost 55 percent under the age of 24 and is also becoming increasingly urban, with the urban population representing 57 percent of the total 2014 (CIA World Factbook, 2016 and World Bank, 2016). This represents a growth of 47 percent in the share of the urban population from 2000. In terms of the distribution of the land surface, the Ouest and Artibonite departments represent 36 percent of the total area of Haiti, and also account for the largest share of agricultural land. -9- Table 1: Haiti - Distribution of population and land mass by Department Department Population (‘000) Area (km2) Ouest 3 956 4 827 Artibonite 1 696 4 984 Nord 1 048 2 106 Sud 761 2 794 Centre 733 3 675 Nord-Ouest 715 2 176 Sud-Est 621 2 023 Grande-Anse 460 1 912 Nord-Est 387 1 805 Nippes 336 1 267 Total 10 711 27 569 Source: FAO, using UNDP data. Poverty has decreased in the 2000s, with the poverty headcount ratio as a percent of the total population declining from 77 percent in 2001 to 58.5 percent in 2012. However, in rural areas, the poverty rate decreased much less, from 88 percent in 2001 to 74.9 percent in 2012. Despite the progress made in reducing poverty, incomes remain low and highly skewed. Close to 71 percent of the population lives on USD 3.10 per day (World Bank, 2016). Moreover, the richest decile of the population captured 48 percent of the total national income in 2012. By contrast, the poorest decile had 0.55 percent of the national income in 2012, a decline of 14 percent from 2001 (World Bank, 2016). Despite recent economic growth, a weak macroeconomic environment threatens further progress According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, Haiti faces three main economic challenges in 2016: i) continued instability from an unfinished electoral process and the economic losses due to the drought; ii) a continued weakening of the local currency against the USD; iii) the reduction in funds raised through the Petrocaribe Agreement with Venezuela due to the low international prices of oil (MEF, 2016). Under the Petrocaribe Agreement, the country can keep half of the proceeds from the sales of oil in the domestic market as a loan to be paid in 25 years at a rate of 2 percent to finance its regular budget and, in particular, capital investments. Real GDP growth in the last five years has averaged 3.4 percent, mostly reflecting strong infrastructure investments after the earthquake and capital investments financed through the Petrocaribe Agreement (MEF, 2016). However, in fiscal years 2014 and 2015, real GDP growth decreased to 2.7 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively, as a result of the weak performance of the agricultural sector (Table 2). Agricultural GDP growth declined sharply in 2014 and then again in 2015 from its strong growth in 2013. The growth of the construction sector has also declined sharply, shrinking from almost 8 percent in 2014 to 2 percent in 2015. However, manufacturing, and of apparel in particular, more than doubled its growth rate from 2.2 percent in 2013 and 2014, to 5 percent in 2015. Similar to construction, this sector tends to employ a significant proportion of low-skilled labour. - 10 Table 2: Haiti - Real GDP growth by sector and by fiscal year (October/September) 2013 2014 2015 (estimate) (percent) Real GDP growth 4.3 2.7 1.7 Agriculture 4.5 -1.5 -3.5 Industry 5.9 5.3 3.4 Manufacturing 2.2 2.2 5.0 Construction 9.3 7.9 2.3 Services 3.7 3.6 3.5 Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance of Haiti, Institute of Statistics and Informatics of Haiti, IMF and the World Bank. According to revised forecasts from MEF, the outlook for the country’s fiscal situation in 2016 is worse than earlier expected, due to the drought, higher expenses on goods and services because of increased price inflation and a depreciating currency (Table 3). Even though domestic revenues in 2015 increased, in nominal terms, and are still projected to grow in 2016, this growth is less than earlier anticipated. Including grants, it is anticipated that the fiscal deficit will shrink by some 3 percent, but if the forecast grants do not to materialize, this deficit will increase by 5 percent. This highlights the importance of maintaining grant levels, which as of now are also projected at lower levels than originally anticipated for 2016 although still higher than in 2015. One element of expenditures expected to decline significantly, by 86 percent in 2016, is that related to capital expenditures financed by the Petrocaribe Agreement (Table 3). This decline mainly reflects falling oil prices, which determine the level of financing the country receives from the Petrocaribe Agreement. The overall fiscal balance is anticipated to remain relatively unchanged in 2016 from 2015, at -3.6 percent of the GDP. Table 3: Haiti - Fiscal accounts (HTG million) 2014 (actual) 2015 (actual) 2016 (forecast) 2016 (revised forecast) Total revenues 74 191 81 516 103 151 90 662 Domestic revenues 49 061 58 846 77 205 65 332 Grants 25 130 22 670 25 946 25 330 Total expenditures 98 764 98 577 116 029 107 210 Current expenditures 48 914 57 102 58 332 63 333 Salaries and wages 22 625 27 632 32 571 31 500 Goods and services 13 175 14 922 16 624 16 563 Interest payments 1 861 1 291 2 293 3 338 Subsidies and transfers 11 253 13 257 6 844 11 931 Capital expenditures 49 850 41 475 57 697 44 120 o/w Treasury 10 467 6 220 15 687 10 090 o/w Petrocaribe Agreement 14 596 12 301 6 648 5 200 o/w Project grants 20 928 20 247 36 067 25 330 Overall balance -24 573 -17 061 -12 878 -16 548 (excluding grants) -49 703 -39 731 -38 824 -41 878 Nominal GDP (Gourdes) 391 635 431 064 491 509 464 320 -6.3 -4.0 -2.6 -3.6 Overall fiscal balance, % of GDP Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance of Haiti, Bank of the Republic of Haiti, IMF and World Bank staff calculations. - 11 The rapid depreciation of the gourde (HTG) against the US dollar (USD) and the Dominican Peso (DOP), both important currencies for the country’s food imports, and the high rates of inflation have strained the situation further. The HTG began to rapidly depreciate in July 2015 against the currencies of the main food trading partners and has continued to do so through 2016. The USD began to appreciate in 2015 as a result of increased economic growth and an increase in the benchmark interest rate used by the Federal Reserve of the United States of America in December 2015, triggering almost immediate responses of the HTG and DOP values against the USD. In 2014, the HTG depreciated by 7 and 4 percent against the USD and the DOP, respectively (Figure 2). In 2015, the rate of depreciation accelerated to 19.7 percent against the USD and 17.5 percent against the DOP. From January to the first week of March 2016, the HTG depreciated further by 6 percent against the USD and the DOP. Figure 2: Haiti – End-of-period deprecation of the Gourde to the US Dollar and the Dominican Peso 20 18 16 Percent 14 12 10 17.5 8 19.7 6 4 2 7.4 5.9 5.9 4.4 0 2014 2015 Dominican Peso 2016 1/ US Dollar Source: FAO calculations from weekly inter-bank exchange rates. 1/ End of period is defined as the change in the exchange rate between the month of January to December of the corresponding year, with the exception of 2016 which reflects the change in the corresponding exchange rate from January to the first week of March. The impact of the devaluation of the HTG is apparent in the difference between the value of Food and Agricultural Imports (FAI) denominated in USD terms and in local currency terms. FAIs declined by 1.4 percent in 2014 and by almost 13 percent in 2015 (Table 4). The value in USD terms of non-US FAIs declined the most in 2015, some 18 percent. By contrast import values in USD terms of FAIs from the United States of America declined moderately. Latin America and the Caribbean was the region from which the largest decline in the value of FAIs in USD terms was recorded, declining by 29 percent in 2015. However, in HTG terms the total value of FAIs has increased, although moderately, over the last two years. This could be due to the low export quotations of imported rice, mainly from the United States of America. Rice imports represent the most important food commodity, capturing almost one-quarter of the total value of FAIs and more than 90 percent is sourced from the United States of America (Table 4). Rice imports from the United States of America in 2015 represented close to 56 percent of FAIs of Haiti. - 12 Table 4: Haiti - Value of food and agricultural imports1/ by source (million) 2013 2014 Source of imports USD HTG USD HTG USD HTG United States of America 387 16 258 350 15 248 340 16 693 Latin America and the Caribbean 247 10 394 242 10 577 181 9 516 EU 69 2 896 65 2 843 54 2 804 China 25 1 030 28 1 244 29 1 362 Canada 20 832 21 909 23 1 080 Rest of the world 117 4 913 147 6 324 126 5 705 Total value 865 36 324 853 -1.4 37 146 2.2 752 -12.6 37 159 0.04 195 206 8 977 24.1 191 Rice imports (% of total food imports) 8 201 22.6 9 570 25.4 Rice imports (% of USA imports) 50.3 % change in total value from previous year Rice imports 58.3 2015 55.7 Source: FAO calculations using data from Global Trade Atlas and exchange rates from OANDA. 1/ Import values represent reflected imports. However, despite the strong depreciation of the HTG, the imported volumes of rice have increased by 11 percent in each calendar year since 2013, mainly reflecting the drought-reduced harvests of the last two years (Figure 3). The low international prices of rice, and particularly US rice, have partly mitigated the impact of the currency depreciation. Figure 3: Haiti - Calendar year rice import values and volumes 450 400 350 300 250 200 325 150 100 195 408 365 206 191 50 0 2013 2014 US Dollar value (millions) Tonnes (thousands) 2015 Source: FAO calculations using data from Global Trade Atlas. - 13 Inflation, and in particular food inflation, increased sharply Inflation rates have increased significantly since June 2015, coinciding with the sharp drop in the value of the HTG and also reflecting the reduced harvest of that same year (Figure 4). In January 2016, the annualized rate of inflation reached 13.3 percent, double its value at the same time in 2015 (MEF, 2016). More than half of the contribution to the inflation rate has come from the increase in food inflation in each month since July 2015 (Figure 4). However, prices of non-food items have increased significantly as well. By contrast, the growth in the cost of services has remained relatively stable. Figure 4: Haiti - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation by sector (percent) Source: IADB. 4. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Usable agricultural land concentrated in a few departments In Haiti, the agricultural year runs from April to March of the following year (Figure 5). There are two seasons: the spring season from April to August, accounts for the bulk of the national cereal production, with the exception of rice. The rice harvest, which is partially irrigated, begins in September and extends just until November. Production of pulses occurs in all seasons but it is mainly concentrated in the spring season; the second season begins in mid-September and concludes in March of the following year. There is also a minor third season, where production of pulses is important, which occurs from October to March. Starchy roots, which can be semi-perennial crops, have a cycle of anywhere from 9 to 14 months, extending across seasons. But again, the spring season, particularly for yams, potatoes and sweet potatoes, is the most important season. - 14 Figure 5: Haiti - Crop calendar According to the 2012 General Census of Agriculture, there are approximately 736 000 hectares of usable agricultural land (UAL) in Haiti (Table 5). Sixty percent of UAL is located in just four departments: Artibonite, Centre, Ouest and Nord. The concentration of UAL is closely correlated to the concentration of the population, as these four departments represent some 70 percent of the total population. By contrast, the departments of Nord-Est and Nippes have the smallest agricultural areas. Table 5: Haiti - Usable Agricultural Land by Department Artibonite 122.0 Total Usable Agricultural Land (%) 17 Centre 121.6 17 Ouest 108.1 15 Nord 83.9 11 Sud 60.5 8 Nord-Ouest 56.3 8 Sud-Est 54.7 7 Grande-Anse 52.0 7 Nord-Est 46.8 6 Nippes 30.2 4 Total 736.2 Department Usable Agricultural Land (‘000 ha) Source: FAO, using data from the 2012 General Census of Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture of Haiti. Agricultural production is erratic and declining Nationally, cereals, pulses and starchy roots occupy the majority of the UAL and represent about 61 percent of the daily per capita caloric consumption (Table 6). Maize, rice and sorghum are the main cereals produced, and together represent the largest share of UAL, 63 percent, with maize alone representing 41 percent of UAL (MARNDR, 2012). While cereal production is spread across the country, the largest concentrations are in Artibonite and Centre departments (Figure 6). Cereals also represent the largest shares of kilocalories consumed, 40 percent of total consumption (Table 6). Starchy roots, including potatoes, yams, sweet potatoes and cassava, are the second most important group of commodities in terms of land use and caloric contribution. Starchy roots are produced throughout the country, but mainly concentrated in the departments in the south and northeast (Figure 6). Beans are commonly intercropped with cereals and starchy roots and produced across the country but plantings are heavily concentrated in the southern and northern regions. Pulses only contribute 9 percent of daily caloric consumption. - 15 Table 6: Haiti - Usable Agricultural Land and caloric contribution of cereals, pulses and starchy roots Caloric Caloric Usable Agricultural UAL1/ consumption2/ contribution Surface (‘000 ha) (%) (kcal/capita/day) (%) Cereals 462 63 Maize 305 41 Rice 59 8 Sorghum 98 13 Pulses 302 41 Beans 192 26 Congo peas 84 11 Inconnu peas 27 4 Starchy roots 159 22 Potatoes 5 1 Sweet potatoes 51 7 Yams 46 6 Cassava 58 8 Total UAL 736 Total caloric contribution 832 40 181 9 245 12 2 097 Source: FAO calculations from the 2012 General Census of Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture of Haiti and FAOSTAT, 2016. 1/ Percent of UAL does not sum to 100 as pulses are sown in association with cereals and starchy roots. Cereals can also be intercropped with starchy roots. 2/ Caloric consumption represents totals by commodity grouping which also includes imports. Figure 6: Haiti - Predominant agricultural use of land of Communes Source: General Census of Agriculture of Haiti, 2012. - 16 In the seven-year period from 2004 to 2011, cereal-production1 increased from about 370 000 tonnes to just over 600 000 tonnes (Figure 7). However, between 2012 and 2015, cereal production followed a decreasing trend, due to several factors, including: lack of availability and/or access to adequate inputs; soil degradation; erratic weather conditions and natural disasters (such as drought or excessive rains); the continued deterioration of productive infrastructure such as irrigation canals; and continued political crisis that, at times, limits the operations of the MARNDR, particularly its’ ability to execute programmes directed at increasing production. As a result in 2015 cereal output reached its lowest level in 12 years. Figure 7: Haiti - Cereal production 700 600 111 150 146 500 tonnes ('000) 122 120 400 300 95 100 92 100 100 401 340 304 270 200 202 200 202 210 205 44 360 136 32 110 100 70 73 87 73 86 94 96 98 112 127 70 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rice Maize Sorghum 91 0 1/ 1/ 2015 2015 0 2015 2015 20151/1/1/1/ 2015 Source: FAO, using data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Haiti. Note: Figures from 2014 and 2015 are from the National Survey of Agricultural Production Estimates. 1/ FAO forecast. Production of pulses, such as beans (both black and pinto) and peas, as well as starchy roots, closely followed the same trends as cereal production (Figure 8). However, the magnitude of changes in the growth rate of production was greater. From 2004 to 2011 production of pulses more than doubled from 79 000 tonnes to 171 000 tonnes. Production of starchy roots over the same period grew from almost 726 000 tonnes to about 1.4 million tonnes in 2011 (Figure 8, Panel B). From 2012 to 2015, in three of the four years, production of both pulses and starchy roots fell sharply from their average levels. However, unlike cereals and starchy roots, both of which reached their lowest production levels in 12 years in 2015, production of pulses, while severely reduced in 2014 and 2015, remained relatively high in comparison to historical levels 1 Production figures prior to 2014 have been generated by non-survey based estimates of the Vegetable Production Direction of the MARNDR. Production figures for 2014 and 2015 are based on the National Survey of Agricultural Production Estimates of MARNDR. - 17 Figure 8: Haiti – Production of pulses and starchy roots Panel A: Pulse production 250 37 tonnes ('000) 200 30 8 27 37 100 23 20 50 85 31 150 25 20 22 25 27 34 40 40 2004 2005 2006 29 25 34 25 54 37 30 52 31 60 65 2007 2008 84 92 5 114 102 84 82 64 0 Beans 2009 Congo Peas 2010 2011 2012 2013 423 433 699 616 2014 20151/ Inconnu Peas Panel B: Starchy roots production 1800 1600 1400 tonnes ('000) 1200 345 313 1000 800 230 220 600 400 347 220 232 574 414 437 510 199 340 561 400 400 450 200 378 175 200 200 220 269 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 360 534 600 118 76 100 62 158 136 0 Potatoes 2009 Sweet Potatoes 2010 2011 Cassava 2012 2013 2014 20151/ Yams Source: FAO, using data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Haiti. Note: Figures from 2014 and 2015 are from the National Survey of Agricultural Production Estimates. 1/ FAO forecast. - 18 Drought conditions due to the El Niño episode caused sharp production losses across the country in 2014 and 2015 The aggregate national production figures tend to mask the regional differences in the areas impacted by drought in 2014 and 2015 due to the El Niño phenomenon. The last agricultural year with adequate rainfall levels and above-average production was 2013. However, even in 2013 the season began in April with signs of drought stress in some areas, particularly in Artibonite and Centre departments, as highlighted by the Vegetation Health Index2 (Figure 9, Panel 1). In 2013, the only areas in the country affected in a significant way by drought conditions were the Nord-Ouest Department and parts of the Grand Anse Department, at the beginning of the harvest period of the main agricultural spring season. The following year, 2014, was mostly dominated by drought conditions generated by the gestation period of El Niño, which was officially declared an event towards the end of the fall season of that year. In 2014, the whole country was impacted by drought to some extent, with only some southern parts of the Artibonite and Centre departments relatively less affected at the harvest period of the spring agricultural season, as illustrated by the VHI for July 2014 (Figure 9, Panel 2). In 2015, the area impacted by drought conditions increased further (Figure 9, Panel 3). The area affected by drought conditions in the vulnerable areas of the NordOuest and Nord departments was particularly large by the beginning of the harvest of the 2015 spring season. The Artibonite and Centre departments, where most agricultural production and, in particular, cereal production, is concentrated, were also severely distressed by drought conditions (Figure 9, Panel 3). 2 The Vegetation Health Index (VHI) is a composite index combining the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and the Temperature Condition Index (TCI). The TCI relates the observed temperature to the long-term maximum, as it is assumed that higher temperatures tend to cause a deterioration in vegetation conditions. The VCI relates the observed dekadal NDVI to its longterm minimum, normalized by the historical range of NDVI values for the same dekad. The VCI was designed to separate the weather-related component of the NDVI from the ecological element. A decrease in the VHI following, for example, a decline in the VCI (relatively poor green vegetation) and an increasing TCI (warmer temperatures) would signify stressed vegetation conditions, and over a longer period would be indicative of drought. The VHI components (VCI and TCI) are given equal weights when computing the index. - 19 Figure 9: Haiti - Vegetation Health Index for April and July, 2013-2015 Panel 1: 2013 Panel 2: 2014 Panel 3: 2015 Source: FAO/GIEWS. - 20 5. FOOD3 AVAILABILITY Imports and a drawdown of stocks sustain food availability The methodology used to evaluate food availability was the Country Commodity Balance Sheet (CCBS) approach as described in the Joint Guidelines for Crop and Food Security Assessment Missions (FAO and WFP, 2009). The CCBS for Haiti was estimated for cereals, pulses and starchy roots for the 2015/16 marketing year (July/June). As discussed previously, these three commodity groups represent some 60 percent of the caloric consumption. In order to combine cereals with the other commodity groups, all products were converted to Maize Equivalent Tonnes (MET), using conversion rates provided by the CNSA (see Annex). The population figure used for the 2015/16 marketing year was 10.7 million as reported by UNDP. The per capita consumption levels (untransformed) to calculate utilization figures and import needs were as follows: i) ii) iii) cereals: 92 kg/year; pulses: 19 kg/year; starchy roots: 31.7 kg/year. For cereals and pulses the per capita consumption levels represent historical average amounts. For starchy roots and tubers, per capita consumption was set at lower than historical levels. This was because, Haiti’s import capacity of starchy roots and tubers is limited, and so it would not be possible to fully compensate for the production losses in 2015 with increased imports. Statistics on agricultural output for all three seasons exist only for 2014 and for the main 2015 spring season. This data is derived from the National Survey of Agricultural Production Estimates (ENEPA) undertaken by SSSAI with assistance from USDA, funded by USAID, and a European Union funded FAO project. The ENEPA figures for the second and third agricultural seasons of 2015 will be published later in 2016. Therefore, for 2015, production for the second and third seasons is assumed to have remained unchanged from the drought reduced outputs of 2014. According to the CCBS estimation, the 28 percent decline in cereal production in 2015 will lead to a reduction of 13 percent in domestic cereal availability in 2015/16 compared to the previous year (Table 7, Panel A), despite a much larger-than-normal anticipated drawdown of stocks. At this level, the domestic availability of cereals would be more than 40 percent below the five-year average. The impact of the drought on the production of pulses and starchy roots was relatively limited compared to impact on the cereal harvest. When accounting for these commodities in the national balance, the overall domestic availability of food (cereals, pulses and starchy roots) is estimated to be 10 percent below the 2014/15 level at 684 million tonnes (Table 7, Panel B). Given the reduced domestic food availability, the total import requirement of cereals, pulses and starchy roots in 2015/16 is forecast to increase by 16 percent to 769 000 tonnes, representing 53 percent of domestic utilization. 3 Food refers to cereals, pulses and starchy roots. - 21 Table 8: Haiti - Commodity balance sheet, marketing year 2015/16 (July/June), ‘000 tonnes Panel A Domestic availability % change from 2014 Stock drawdown Production % change from 2014 Total utilization Food use Feed use Other uses (seed, losses, other) Exports Stock build-up Import requirement % change from 2014 Total cereals Wheat Sorghum Rice (milled) Maize - 32 -47 0 32 -32 32 2 18 12 0 - 121 -5 30 91 -33 544 529 15 0 423 6 250 -7 140 110 -21 282 250 20 12 0 32 116 0 0 237 200 2 35 237 22 2015 403 -13 170 233 -28 1 095 981 38 41 35 692 14 458 5-year average 600 150 307 98 502 1 057 979 34 44 600 1 176 929 81 42 124 576 Starchy roots 192 -8 94 99 -16 217 106 15 97 Total 2015 684 -10 289 394 -24 1 453 1 217 52 152 2014 Panel B1/ Wheat Sorghum Rice (milled) 132 -5 33 100 -33 593 577 16 Maize Total cereals 412 -13 173 240 -28 1 127 1 016 37 42 Pulses Domestic availability 30 250 79 % change from 2014 -47 -7 -5 Stock drawdown 0 0 140 23 Production 0 30 110 56 % change from 2014 -32 -21 -18 Total utilization 221 30 282 109 Food use 187 2 250 95 Feed use 17 20 Other uses (seed, losses, 2 11 12 14 other) Exports Stock build-up 33 33 Import requirement 221 461 32 714 30 25 % change from 2014 22 0 6 116 14 17 139 Source: FAO/GIEWS, using data from CNSA and SSSAI of the Ministry of Agriculture of Haiti and FAOSTAT. 1/ All data is in maize tonnage equivalent. 769 16 - 22 6. MARKET CONDITIONS AND PRICES Field visits were made to 7 markets covering 6 departments of the 10 in the country, 3 in the northeast and 3 in the southwest (Table 8). The markets were selected to supplement price information already provided by the Emergency Food Security Assessment (EFSA), carried out by WFP in conjunction with CNSA in December 2015, and thus enable a more comprehensive overview of the situation across the country. The visits included the regional offices of the HMOA in Cap Haitien and in Jeremie and the market of Ouanaminthe, in the Nord-Est Department, which is one of the main entry gateways of food imports from the Dominican Republic. For the visits to the southwestern departments the Mission was joined by WFP, while for the visits to the north-eastern departments it was joined by FEWSNET. In total, 56 merchants were interviewed. From these visits, the Mission was able to conclude the following:      Markets were mostly supplied with imported foods from the Dominican Republic and the United States of America. Availabilities of locally-produced foods in the country were overall tight, although markets in the southwestern departments of the country had larger supplies than elsewhere. Relative to the northern departments, production in these areas was less affected by the drought in 2015. Prices of all goods were generally increasing. Prices for domestically-sourced foods and imported beans increased the most, while prices of imported rice were increasing at a relatively slower rate or not at all. Merchants reported that they were reluctant to increase rice prices at the same rate as other goods for the fear of depressing sales. Since merchants buy on credit, and often with a credit maturity of just one week, it is critical for them to maintain cash flow levels in order to service their debts. Therefore, merchants were taking a lower profit margin, particularly for rice, in order to maintain cash flow. The depreciation of the HTG relative to the DOP and to the USD has been a key factor driving up prices. Purchases on credit by consumers was higher in markets in the northeast departments relative to the markets in the southeast departments. In addition, merchants in the northeast reported marginal increases in the number of sellers relative to the southwest. Merchants in all markets reported a slowdown in sales of cereals and pulses relative to February 2014, with consumers often substituting with starchy roots, which are more filling and priced lower, but contain less calories. There were concerns regarding the effects of the political instability on the ability of the MARNDR to support farmers during the spring 2016 season. As in most developing countries, merchants are also often producers, and those interviewed showed concern about their access to seeds for the coming season. The seeds used for sowing tend to be the same grain destined for human consumption, and given current price levels in the market, access to seeds is therefore a concern. In the last two years, the MARNDR, independently or through support from FAO and other donors, distributed technology packages that include seeds. There is concern that these distributions for the main 2016 spring agricultural season might be delayed due to the disruption of Government operations after the 2015 electoral process. However, in discussion with the heads of the regional offices of the MARNDR in Cap Hatien and Jeremie, the Mission was informed that planning for this process was ongoing and that it might start on schedule. Table 8: Haiti - Markets visited during the Mission Region Market Name Department North by Northeast Point Sonde Artibonite Cap Hatien Nord Southwest Limonade Nord Ounaminthe Nord-Est Fondes de Negres Nippes Kanse Sud Chambellan Grand'Anse The analysis of market price data confirmed the market trends observed in the field visits Prices of domestically-produced maize meal have followed a general increasing trend since the summer of 2014 (Figure 10, Panel A). In Port au Prince, maize meal prices in March 2016 were nearly 60 percent above their yearearlier levels (Figure 10, Panel B). Prices, however, remained generally below the record highs reached in 2008. - 23 Figure 10: Haiti - Maize meal retail prices and 12-month moving average of monthly price changes Panel A: Maize meal (local) retail prices 21 19 Gourdes\Lbs 17 15 13 11 9 7 Ouanaminthe Port-au-Prince Nov-15 Mar-16 Les Cayes Mar-16 Jacmel Jan-16 Hinche Jan-16 Cap Haitien Sep-15 Jul-15 May-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 5 Jeremie Panel B: 12-month moving average of montly price changes 10 Percentage growth 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Cap Haitien Hinche Jacmel Les Cayes Ouanaminthe Port-au-Prince Nov-15 Sep-15 Jul-15 May-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 -8 Jeremie Source: FAO/GIEWS calculations using data from CNSA as reported in the FPMA Price Tool. Following sharp increases in the prices of black beans between March and November 2015, the rate of increase slowed since December 2015, reflecting the arrival of new supplies from the second season harvest, between late December and mid-February. However, prices began to increase in March 2016, with the 12-month moving average growth rate ranging from 2 percent in Les Cayes to over 4 percent in Jacmel (Figure 11, Panel B). In the January-February 2016 period, prices reached record levels in Cap Hatien, Jacmel and Port au Prince and continued at very high levels in March, with prices well above their year-earlier levels in all markets. - 24 Figure 11: Haiti - Black bean retail prices and 12-month moving average of monthly price changes Panel A: Black bean retail prices 80 Gourdes/Lbs 70 60 50 40 30 Ouanaminthe Port au Prince Nov-15 Mar-16 Les Cayes Mar-16 Jacmel Jan-16 Hinche Jan-16 Cap Haitien Sep-15 Jul-15 May-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 20 Jeremie Panel B: 12-month moving average of montly price changes 8.0 Percent growth 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 Cap Haitien Hinche Jacmel Les Cayes Ouanaminthe Port au Prince Nov-15 Sep-15 Jul-15 May-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 -6.0 Jeremie Source: FAO/GIEWS calculations using data from CNSA as reported in the FPMA Price Tool. - 25 Relative to maize meal and black bean prices, imported rice prices have exhibited a lower rate of growth in 2015 (Figure 12, Panel A). The highest rate of growth of imported rice prices was observed in August 2015, when the 12-month moving average growth rate across all markets was 0.5 percent. Since then, the rate of growth of prices decelerated until February 2016 when it started to increase again. In March 2016, the average rate of growth across all markets was 0.35 percent, and 0.69 percent in Hinche. In March 2016, imported rice prices were only moderately above their year-earlier levels, and in Jacmel prices were unchanged from 2015 (Figure 12, Panel B). The relative stability of rice prices in Haiti mainly reflects low US rice export quotations, which are at six-year lows, and merchants’ reluctance to increase prices. Figure 12: Haiti - Imported rice retail prices and 12-month moving average of monthl prices changes Panel A: 12-month moving average of montly price changes 1.00 Percent growth 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 Mar-16 Mar-16 Nov-15 Jan-16 Jeremie Sep-15 Jul-15 May-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Jacmel Jan-16 Hinche Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 -2.00 Port-au-Prince Panel B: Imported rice retail price 28 27 Gourdes/Lbs 26 25 24 23 22 21 Hinche Jacmel Jeremie Nov-15 Sep-15 Jul-15 May-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 20 Port-au-Prince Source: FAO/GIEWS calculations using data from CNSA as reported in the FPMA Price Tool. - 26 Black bean and rice prices are well integrated to import markets4 Prices of black bean and imported rice in Port au Prince are strongly integrated with prices of these commodities in the country’s main suppliers, namely the Dominican Republic and the United States of America, respectively. The high level of market integration infers that exogenous market factors play a very important role in determining price levels in Haiti. However, unlike 2008, international commodity prices have declined and are expected to remain low in the near future. Figure 13: Haiti - Natural log of real black bean and rice prices in Haiti, the Dominican Republic and the United States of America and time of adjustment of Haitian prices to a shock in the Dominican Republic and the United States of America 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 3 3.1 2.9 3 2.8 2.9 2.7 Jan-16 Aug-15 Mar-15 Oct-14 May-14 Dec-13 Jul-13 Feb-13 Sep-12 Apr-12 Nov-11 Jan-11 Jun-11 Aug-10 Mar-10 2.5 Oct-09 2.7 May-09 2.6 Dec-08 2.8 Natural Log of Haiti prices 3.3 Jul-08 Natural Log of Dom. Rep. prices Panel A: Natural log of real black bean prices 3.4 Dominican Rep., Sto. Domingo, Beans (Black), Retail, Peso/Lbs Haiti, Port au Prince, Beans (Black), Retail, Gourde/Lbs Natural Log of Haiti Prices Jan-16 Jul-15 9.4 Jan-15 5.4 Jul-14 9.6 Jan-14 5.6 Jul-13 9.8 Jul-12 5.8 Jan-13 10 Jan-12 6 Jul-11 10.2 Jan-11 6.2 Jul-10 10.4 Jan-10 6.4 Jul-09 10.6 Jul-08 6.6 Jan-09 10.8 Jan-08 6.8 Jul-07 11 Jan-07 Natural Log of US Prices Panel B: Natural log of real rice prices 7 US, Rice (US Long Grain 2.4%), Export (USD/Tonne) Haiti, Port-au-Prince, Rice (Imported), Retail (Gourde/Tonne) Source: FAO/GIEWS calculations using data from CNSA as reported in the FPMA Price Tool. 4 To evaluate the level of integration of black bean and rice prices to markets in the Dominican Republic and the United States of America, prices were analyzed using the Single Equation Error Correction Model (SECM) approach used by Baquedano and Leifert (2014). - 27 7. EL NIÑO PHENOMENON AND EARLY OUTLOOK FOR MAIN 2016 SPRING CROP SEASON Uncertainty remains over possible impact of the ongoing El Niño event on the main spring 2016 season The latest consensus forecast of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society of Columbia University (IRI) gives a 76 percent probability that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will reach neutral conditions during the May-July period. With the bulk of the 2016 spring season planting occurring between late March and early June, it is likely that precipitation levels for the season may again be affected by ENSO. Under current El Niño forecasts there are two probable scenarios:   Normal rainfall distribution and planting operations are not delayed by dry conditions: This is the most optimistic scenario and would permit a possible return to normal production levels, last seen in 2013, with cereal production recovering to some 600 000 tonnes, pulses around 200 000 tonnes and starchy roots about 1.6 million tonnes. The second scenario is for the El Niño episode to continue in a more weakened state: This is the most likely scenario given current El Niño forecasts. How production is affected will depend on the impact on the sowing period of the spring 2016 season, which goes from May to June. With either of the above scenarios, if planting operations are delayed or reduced by the lack of seeds, outputs could be reduced for a third consecutive year, irrespective of rains. One possible way to mitigate any negative effects would be to provide additional seeds for replanting if this became necessary. Rainfall patterns have been erratic but conditions improving During the first 80 days of 2016 rainfall levels were erratic, according to remote sensing data. Generally, rainfall levels were severely below average during the first two months of the year in Artibonite and Centre departments, where national agricultural production is largely concentrated, but improved in March (Figure 14). In Artibonite and Centre departments, 50 of the first 80 days of 2016 have seen below-average rainfall levels and 30 days were below 2015 rainfall levels (Figure 14). In both departments, only 30 days have been above average, with 20 of these days occurring in the last two dekads of February. 2016 2015 Dec-Dekad 2 Dec-Dekad 2 Aug-Dekad 2 Jul-Dekad 3 Jul-Dekad 1 Jun-Dekad 2 May-Dekad 3 May-Dekad 1 Apr-Dekad 2 Mar-Dekad 3 Mar-Dekad 1 Feb-Dekad 2 Jan-Dekad 3 Jan-Dekad 1 Nov-Dekad 3 0 Nov-Dekad 3 20 Nov-Dekad 1 40 Nov-Dekad 1 60 Oct-Dekad 2 80 Oct-Dekad 2 100 Sep-Dekad 3 120 Sep-Dekad 3 Panel B: Centre Department Sep-Dekad 1 Average Sep-Dekad 1 Aug-Dekad 2 2015 Jul-Dekad 3 Jul-Dekad 1 2016 Jun-Dekad 2 May-Dekad 3 May-Dekad 1 Apr-Dekad 2 Mar-Dekad 3 Mar-Dekad 1 Feb-Dekad 2 Jan-Dekad 3 Jan-Dekad 1 milimeters of rain milimeters of rain - 28 - Figure 14: Haiti - Rainfall by dekad in Artibonite and Centre departments Panel A: L'Artibonite Department 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Average Source: FAO/GIEWS using data from FAO’s Earth Observation portal. - 29 However, according to the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), vegetative conditions in March were better than at the same time in 2015 (Figure 15). Up until the second dekad of March 2016, the development of vegetation has been particularly strong in the southwest and south departments as well as in large areas in upper Artibonite and NordOuest departments (Figure 15, Panel B). If this positive vegetation development continues, it would imply a likely normal production outcome, provided that other factors, other than the weather, do not adversely affect production. Figure 15: Haiti - Vegetation Health Index, dekad 2 March 2015 and 2016 Source: FAO/GIEWS using data from FAO’s Earth Observation portal. 8. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Domestic food availability declined significantly in 2015, from its already low level in 2014, as a consequence of the drought conditions that predominated for most of the 2015 agricultural season. As a result, some 1.5 million people are estimated to be severely food insecure and at least 200 000 people are in an extreme food emergency situation. Currently, food availability is being sustained by a substantial increase in imports, particularly for rice and wheat. This is evident in local markets where important food staples on offer, such as rice, beans, maize and wheat flour, predominately originate from the United States of America and the Dominican Republic. A significant drawdown of national food reserves is also expected in order to sustain food availability. However, the weak macroeconomic environment, including a strong depreciation of the gourde, high rates of inflation and higher-thananticipated budget deficits, could make it more difficult to sustain current levels of imports in 2016. Food price levels in March 2016 were high and near-record levels for key food staples, including maize meal and beans. However, low international prices for rice have prevented significant increases in local prices for this commodity, somewhat shielding consumers from the impact of a strong depreciation of the gourde. The high level of prices has adversely affected food access for households most affected by the drought, as food purchases represent close to two thirds of household expenditures. To cope with the high prices, local populations are substituting consumption of these commodities with starchy roots and tubers, reducing purchases and/or increasing purchases on credit. - 30 Sustaining the purchasing power of households and support to agricultural activities are two important strategies to mitigate the effects of the drought. The possible impact of the ongoing El Niño phenomenon on the coming 2016 main spring agricultural season is uncertain. So far, even though rainfall has been erratic for most of the year, vegetative development has improved significantly from 2015. Nonetheless, until the harvest, which will begin in late June and continue until September, the following two strategies are recommended:  Sustain household purchasing power with targeted cash transfers and/or cash for work activities: Households across the country, and in particular the most impacted areas, have seen a significant reduction in their incomes from agriculture in the last two years, resulting in a drop in purchasing power and increases in household debt. Rural populations, and in particular farmers, have to consider using limited resources to either buy food or agricultural inputs. Sustaining household purchasing power would facilitate the normal resumption of agricultural activities. This support should be targeted and last only until the next harvest, when farmers would be able to generate income from the sale of their products.  Support to agricultural production: To increase food availability and lessen the tight supply pressure on prices, assistance to the agricultural sector should not be limited to the most affected areas of the country. The areas of the country that were most affected by the drought conditions in 2014 and then again in 2015 tend to also have the lowest level of agricultural productivity. Focusing only on these regions would have a marginal effect on production gains and ultimately food availability. Therefore, two measures are recommended: i) ii) providing direct assistance to the most affected regions with necessary inputs, such as seeds and fertilizers and also activities aimed at increasing the resilience of these populations to drought, such as promoting the harvesting of water through the construction of micro-tanks at the household level; rebuilding productive capacity in the more productive regions of the country, for example Artibonite, Centre, Grande-Anse and Nippes, through activities such as reinforcing good agricultural practices, improving or promoting high quality seed production and facilitating access to credit and extension services. 9. REFERENCES Baquedano, F. and William, L., 2014. Market integration and price transmission in consumer markets of developing countries. Food Policy 44:103-114. FAO and WFP, 2009. Joint Guidelines for Crop and Food Security Assessment Missions, Rome, Italy. MEF, 2016. Note de synthèse sur la situation macroéconomique et financière d’Haïti, février 2016. OCHA, 2016. Humanitarian Bulletin: Haiti. Issue 57, January 2016. WFP, 2016. Haiti Emergency Food Security Assessment. World Bank, 2016. World Development Indicators . - 31 - ANNEX Haiti - CNSA Maize Equivalent Tonnes (MET) Conversion Factors MET Conversion Factor Cereals Rice (paddy) 1.09 Maize 1 Sorghum 0.94 Wheat 0.93 Pulses Dry beans 1.02 Peanuts 1.54 Congo peas 1.02 Starchy roots Potatoes 0.21 Sweet potatoes 0.32 Cassava 0.39 Yams 0.28 Source: CNSA. I5614E/1/05.16