Credit to the Private Sector and Outlook for 2024 and 2025
Summary: A presentation on credit to the private sector and the outlook for 2024 and 2025, organized around five points: the deteriorating security climate and economic recession; the difficult trade-off between growth and price stability; a monetary policy that is accommodative while remaining restrictive; a Haitian financial sector that is resilient and profitable; and an assessment of intermediation activity in 2023 with prospects for 2024 and 2025. It sets these against the national and international context, including the pandemic, geopolitical conflict and inflationary tensions.
Key Findings
- The presentation says Haiti had five consecutive years of real GDP contraction and projects a further recession of 3 percent in 2024.
- Private credit fell by 10 percent in 2023 after growing by 14.1 percent one year earlier.
- The credit-to-deposit ratio remained below 30 percent from FY2022 and fell to 26 percent on 30 September 2023.
- The banking system arrears coefficient rose from 6.67 percent in September 2022 to 8.51 percent in September 2023, while provisions covered 79.38 percent of gross non-performing loans.
- Credit is heavily concentrated in the West department, whose share rose from 60 percent to 70 percent between 2020 and 2023.
Full Description
BRH presentation on private-sector credit and the 2024-2025 outlook. It links deteriorating security, recession, monetary conditions and banking-sector resilience to weaker intermediation, lower credit growth, a higher non-performing-loan ratio, regional and gender concentration in lending, and possible 2025 measures such as loan guarantees, debt restructuring and programs for SMEs and women-led firms.
How to cite
Bank of the Republic of Haiti (BRH), Credit to the Private Sector and Outlook for 2024 and 2025, accessed via HaitiDocs, https://www.haitidocs.org/doc/brh-2024-credit-secteur-prive-perspectives