(2024-04) Bulletin VAM du PAM, avril 2024 : Analyse de la sécurité alimentaire

Haiti April 2024 WFP VAM Bulletin Food security analysis Key points Around 8.5 million people were estimated to have insufficient food consumption in Haiti in March 2024 (prevalence rate of 72%). While the situation had slightly improved between October 2023 and January 2024, the ratio of households with insufficient food consumption increased steadily throughout the first quarter of 2024, reaching peak values at the end. An increase in the cost of the household food basket in the first quarter of 2024 (+21% between January and mid-April 2024), coupled with a declining availability of essential food commodities, gradually erodes households’ purchasing power at a time when the demand keeps rising in anticipation of intensifying security incidents. After the Cash Working Group in Haiti updated the Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) in February 2024, an affordability analysis estimated that nine out of ten Haitians will not be able to afford their essential needs in the next two months. Escalating violence continue to affect food security and to challenge humanitarian assistance : mostly contained in the capital of Port-au-Prince, violent events in the first quarter of 2024 have intensified, forcing tens of thousands of people to flee to other departments or to IDP sites in the last months. Rainfall conditions during the dry season (December to March) were relatively close to average, but have worsened in March with most of the country showing rainfall deficits, at a time when land preparation and planting for the main growing season are starting. Forecast data tend to predict wetter-than-average conditions in the three coming months. Page 1 1. Food security analysis [A] Continuous increase in food consumption insufficiency levels since January 2024 8.55M People with insufficient food consumption in March 2024 MARCH 2024 +0.13M increase from 3 months ago +0.31M increase from 1 month ago While the overall food consumption situation in Haiti had slightly improved between the months of October 2023 and January 2024, it began to deteriorate again throughout the first quarter of 2024. The trend of food consumption insufficiency1 is alarmingly high, with prevalence rates reaching approximately 72% of the national population in March 2024 (compared to 63% two months earlier). This corresponds to one of the highest national prevalence rates of insufficient food consumption on record since WFP’s monitoring tool has been running (mid-2021), the peak having been reached in October 2023. This corresponds to about 8.55 million people2. Figure 1. Prevalence (in % of households) of insufficient food consumption in Haiti as of March 2024. Source: WFP, Geopoll/HungerMapLIVE The ratios of households with an insufficient food consumption in March 2024 are shown by department in Figure 1; the departments of Grande’Anse (86%), Nippes (84%), South-East (83%), West (74%) and North-West (73%) have the highest levels of food consumption. The situation has worsened in most departments in March compared to the previous month, except for the Centre, North-East and North-West. Furthermore, the percentage of households using emergency or crisis coping strategies follows a similar trend nationwide (see Figure 2): after the ratios of households using such negative strategies had continuously fallen from September 2023 (67%, highest value on record) to January 2024 (62%), they have gained over 4 percentage points in two months only, reaching over 66%. Against the backdrop of the security, political and economic crisis that Haiti has been experiencing for several months, it may be feared that such trends will continue to rise over the coming months, and even exceed values ever recorded to date. Focus on metropolitan area of Port-au-prince Insufficient food consumption (FCS Poor or Borderline) Use of negative coping strategies (emergency or crisis) Figure 2. Monthly trend (in % of households) of insufficient food consumption and of the use of negative coping strategies in Haiti from March 2023 to March 2024. Source: WFP, Geopoll/HungerMapLIVE 1.75M +0.06M increase from 3 months ago People MARCH 2024 ZM-PAP Figure 3. Prevalence (in % of households) of insufficient food consumption in ZMPAP as of March 2024. Source: WFP, Geopoll/HungerMapLIVE Insufficient food consumption (FCS Poor or Borderline) Use of negative coping strategies (emergency or crisis) Figure 4. Monthly trend (in % of households) of insufficient food consumption and of the use of negative coping strategies in ZM -PAP from March 2023 to March 2024. Source: WFP, Geopoll/ HungerMapLIVE In the Port-au-Prince +0.10M increase with insufficient food metropolitan area (ZMfrom 1 month ago consumption in ZM-PAP PAP), 1.75 million in March 2024 people (more than three households out of four) are estimated to have an insufficient food consumption in March 2024, which represents about 5 percentage points more than in January 2023 when the prevalence rate of households with poor or borderline food consumption was 70.5% (see Figure 4). In line with the national findings, an increasing trend of the prevalence rates, corresponding to a deteriorating situation for households, is observed throughout the first quarter of 2024. More specifically, about 84% of households have an insufficient food consumption in the commune Croixdes-Bouquets in March 2024, which is the most alarming ratio in ZM-PAP for that month (Figure 3). Increases have also been recorded in March 2024 in Cité-Soleil (79%), Tabarre (77%) and Pétion-Ville (75%) compared to the previous month, while the trend has gone downward in the case of Carrefour (77%), Port-au-Prince (73%) and Delmas (60%). The percentage of households using emergency or crisis coping strategies in ZM-PAP has also increased at the end of the first quarter of 2024, reaching over 65% in March 2024, compared with 58% one month before. 1 2 April 2024 WFP VAM Bulletin | Recap Q1 2024 The food consumption is considered insufficient when the Food Consumption Score (FCS) is Poor or Borderline. Note that the numbers of people with insufficient food consumption are not comparable with IPC food insecure figures. Page 2 2. Market MONITORING [B] Scarcity of essential products due to insecurity and limited access Focus on metropolitan area of Port-au-prince A significant increase in the cost of the food basket between January and April 2024 Between January and mid-April 2024, the average cost of the food basket in the West department rose by 21%, from 27,590 HTG (Haitian gourdes) up to 33,411 HTG for a family of five. The graph below (Figure 5) shows the rising trend from the beginning of this year to mid-April 2024. The high cost of the food basket reached in mid-April 2024 (+5,800 HTG compared to the beginning of the quarter) leads to a reduction in household access to food. compared to the same period last year (April 2023). More particularly rice, maize, and wheat flour are 25%, 22%, and 14% more expensive, respectively, than in April 2023 (see graph below in Figure 6). Price (in HTG) Figure 6. Trend in essential commodities prices between April 2023 and April 14, 2024. Source: WFP Haiti (April 2024) Figure 5. Evolution of the food basket cost in the West department. Source: WFP Haiti (April 2024) Declining availability of essential commodities and longer replenishment times A decrease in the number of traders frequenting markets due to insecurity has resulted in a scarcity of certain essential products on the department's local markets. Based on the most recent data collected in mid-April, commodities such as oil, wheat flour and rice are more at risk of stock-outs due to the shorter average duration of food stocks held by retailers during the current security situation (between 9 and 14 days). Increased household demand in anticipation of a worsening security crisis and supply difficulties are the main causes of this situation. WFP’s fieldbased enumerators found a lower product availability in several markets compared to March 2024. In addition, the replenishment time keeps increasing for the majority of products (13 to 24 days). A market-by-market analysis shows that Léogâne, Carrefour and Tabarre communities face the greatest challenges in securing essential commodities. Increasing prices of food commodities Prices of certain essential food products have continued to rise in the first weeks of April 2024, particularly sugar (+74%). Prices of other items have suffered minimal change during the first fortnight of April 2024, however, their levels remain high April 2024 WFP VAM Bulletin | Recap Q1 2024 Page 3 3. ECONOMIC ANaLYSIS (Meb) [C] 9 Haitians out of 10 will soon not be able to afford essential needs After the Country Cash Working Group updated the Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) in February 2024, an affordability analysis estimated that nine out of ten Haitians will not be able to afford their essential needs (food and non-food) in the next two months. This analysis, based on survey and economic data, aims to answer the following question: how many additional people will not be able to cover their essential needs, according to the minimum expenditure basket (food and non-food) methodology, if prices continue to increase at the current pace (as of February 2024) in the two following months? household expenditure data from the ENSSAN survey (Enquête Nationale de Suivi de la Sécurité Alimentaire et Nutritionnelle), collected in July 2023, and updated data on the Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) derived from economic data such as inflation and currency exchange rate - are used. The MEB is the monetary threshold that households need to meet their basic needs (food and nonfood) through the market. In July 2023, 84.7 percent of Haiti's 11.9 million people could not afford the MEB. Within six months, an additional 500,000 people (4 percent of the population) are estimated to be in the same situation (see Table 1). The high level of inflation (more than 22%), although decreased from July 2023 to January 2024, eroded the purchasing power of households across the country, with an increase of 5 percent of the population unable to make ends meet between July 2023 and February 2024. The departments of Artibonite and West are estimated to be the most affected. up to June 2024 February 2024 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (5% increase CPI) (10% increase CPI) (15% increase CPI) Consumer Price Index (CPI) 373.6 392.3 411.0 429.6 Inflation 23.1% 23.7% 29.6% 35.5% Table 2. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation rate in the case of three scenarios for the period from February 2024 to June 2024. Source: Haiti Cash Working Group (Feb 2024) 2024 to June 2024 are proposed (see Table 2): if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5 percent (corresponding to an annual inflation of 23.7 percent, the lower expected rate), 10 percent (the same increase as last year), or 15 percent (the worst case, corresponding to an annual inflation of 35.5 percent). In the second scenario, the number of additional people for whom the MEB threshold would be too high is close to 200 thousand people, while in the third scenario it is close to 300 thousand people. These scenarios suggest that between 89 and 91 percent of Haitians will not be able to afford to buy essential needs if prices continue to rise due to the worsening of the current security situation, leading to a negative impact on the economic environment. The analysis further explores the possible impacts on MEB cost by testing three scenarios for June 2024, and estimates the population that would be affected (i.e., who could not afford to buy essential needs) if the monthly inflation continues its upward trend. To do so, three scenarios for the period from February Table 1. Estimation of people who cannot afford the cost of the Minimum Expenditure Basket in July 2023, February 2024 and in June 2024 according to three scenarios. Source: Haiti Cash Working Group (February 2024) April 2024 WFP VAM Bulletin | Recap Q1 2024 Page 4 4. Security situation [D] Insecurity levels intensify in the first quarter of 2024, mainly in ZM-PAP Violent events that occurred between 1st January and 12th April 2024 are spatially represented in Figure 7, by event type and number of fatalities associated with the event. According to ACLED dataset [C], used for this analysis, most incidents are violence against civilians and battles, concentrated in the West department, more precisely in the Port-au-Prince (PAP) metropolitan area as well as in towns on the outskirts of PAP, such as Léogâne, Ganthier, Thomazeau or Arcahaie. The graph below (Figure 8) shows the numbers of violent events (in orange) and the number of fatalities (in burgundy) recorded each day from January 2023 to April 2024. Although it depicts Number of fatalities Armed clashes between 13th and 16th November in CitéSoleil caused 166 fatalities Number of violent events About 500 fatalities registered since 01 January 2024, most of which in ZM-PAP Figure 8. Daily number of fatalities caused by violent events and daily numbers of violent events from January 2023 to mid-April 2024 in Haiti. Source: ACLED (2023) Figure 7. Violent events recorded in Haiti between 01 January and 12 April 2024. Source: ACLED (2024) persistent, heightened violence in Haiti during that period, with deadliest peaks of insecurity in April and November 2023, the graph clearly shows that violence continued to intensify in the first quarter of 2024, with over 550 violent events recorded from 1st January to 12th April 2024. More precisely, most fatalities result either from the Mariani roadblock in January, armed clashes occurring between rival gangsters in the communes of Port-auPrince, Cité-Soleil, Carrefour and Croix-Des-Bouquets, or from the assaults of statal or residential buildings during March. 5. SEASONAL MONITORING [E] Rainfall deficits recorded at the start of the main growing season December to March is the dry season in Haiti. Planting of 2024 main maize generally begins in March-April. The maps below (Figure 9) show rainfall anomalies for the months of December 2023, January 2024, February 2024 and March 2024. In December 2023, positive rainfall anomalies (in blue) were observed in most of Haiti’s communes. The situation was more contrasted in January 2024, with drier-than-average conditions in the north of the country, wetter-than-average conditions in the southern peninsula, and average conditions elsewhere. In February, conditions remained close to average in most of the country, except for some areas in the Centre and North-East departments, where negative rainfall anomalies were recorded. Rainfall anomalies by month Given that the dry season concerns minor crops, rainfall conditions do not have as much impact on agriculture as at other times of the year. However, with March corresponding to the start of the main growing season (planting of main maize and paddy crops is underway), the significant rainfall deficits observed across the country for March 2024 (see map on the right), particularly in Centre and North-East, should be monitored closely. If rainfall deficits continue to accumulate throughout the season, this could lead to a delay in the onset of the main season, as was the case in 2023, with serious repercussions for agriculture and livestock farming. That said, latest rainfall forecasts tend to predict wetter-than-average conditions in the months ahead (source). Figure 9. Rainfall anomalies (percentage of average) by commune in December 2023, January, February and March 2024 in Haiti. Source: CHIRPS/UCSB, processed by WFP RAM-C April 2024 WFP VAM Bulletin | Recap Q1 2024 Page 5 methodologies [A] WFP’s continuous, near real-time monitoring system (HungerMapLIVE) [D] Monitoring insecurity and violent events with ACLED database This system collects thousands of survey data points per day remotely, through live calls made from call centers around the world, including Haiti. The sample is 116 households per department, and 120 per commune in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, selected monthly by random telephone dialing, to be interviewed. These analyses enable to monitor some key food security indicators, such as insufficient food consumption or household coping strategies. The prevalence rates of insufficient food consumption presented in this bulletin should not be compared to the proportion of food insecure people as provided by the IPC classification exercises - which consider many more indicators than insufficient food consumption and coping strategies. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) database compiles and analyzes disaggregated data for mapping crisis areas. It collects information on dates, actors, locations, fatalities, and types of violent events reported around the world. This data is updated on a weekly basis. ACLED database is not exhaustive and does not claim to collect all violent incidents, especially for areas that are hard to access or have little information coverage. While this data is not a primary source for day-to-day monitoring of security operations, it provides important information on trends over time and possible geographic expansions of insecurity in crisis areas. Useful link : acleddata.com/about-acled/ Useful link : hungermap.wfp.org/ [B] Market price monitoring Data collection for the market monitoring system is based on face-to-face interviews with retailers, considered as key informants (KIs), and is conducted on a weekly basis. At least five KIs are surveyed for each product in a market. For this round (mid-April 2024), retailers from localities across the West department provided food prices. The selection of food commodities takes into account the Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB), according to the methodology of the Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (ICSM), and includes seven basic commodities: wheat flour, rice, corn, sugar, black beans, red beans, and vegetable oil. It takes into account the energy needs (2,100 kcal) of a family of five people, according to the SPHERE minimum requirements. Useful link : www.wfp.org/market-analysis [E] Climate analysis and seasonal monitoring Climate and seasonal analyses are conducted by WFP RAM Climate and Earth Observation team. These analyses are based on medium-term records of precipitation and vegetation (starting in 1981 to nearpresent). Rainfall data is derived from the CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) rainfall estimate, produced by the University of California. It is a 35+ year quasi-global rainfall dataset. These data combine satellite imagery with in-situ station data to create gridded precipitation time series for trend analysis and seasonal drought monitoring. Useful link : dataviz.vam.wfp.org/seasonal_explorer/ rainfall_vegetation/help [C] Economic analysis (MEB) The MEB is the monetary threshold that households need to cover their essential needs through the market. The composition was designed for a typical household of five people (two adults and three children). The multipurpose MEB for extended crisis of 54,743 HTG (29,108 HTG food and 25,635 HTG non-food) as determined by the Country Cash Working Group in March 2024. The MEB cost was adjusted in August 2023 (at the time of the ENSSAN survey) by applying the Oxford adult equivalence scale to account for economies of scale in sharing certain goods among household members to the expenditure data. Useful link : docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000074198/ download/ World Food Programme | Haiti Karibe Hotel, Juvenat 7, Route du Canapé-Vert, 1610 Petion Ville Contacts: Smaila GNEGNE, Head of RAM unit : smaila.gnegne@wfp.org Faroukou GARBA, VAM officer : faroukou.garba@wfp.org Laure BOUDINAUD, Geospatial analyst : laure.boudinaud@wfp.org Photos : Theresa Piorr © WFP (2022) Page 6