(2025) Perspectives Macro-Pauvreté d'Haïti

HAITI An ongoing political crisis and increasing gang violence con- tinue to depress economic activity, with GDP declining by an estimated 2.6 percent in H1FY25. Agriculture contracted the most, worsening food insecurity. Despite tighter monetary and fiscal policies, inflation accelerated, led by food and housing. GDP is projected to decline for a seventh straight year, deepening poverty. Key conditions and challenges By June 2025, gang-controlled territory had expanded, displacing 1.3 million Haitians and deepening an already severe humanitarian crisis. This, together with deep structural challenges including state capture and an un- conducive business environment limit growth and pover- ty reduction.Underdeveloped financial markets and weak competition fuel a large informal economy. The indefinite suspension of US commercial flights to the main airport and intermittent border closures with the Dominican Re- public have isolated Haiti, constraining domestic resource mobilization. A weak labor market is dominated by low- quality, poorly remunerated jobs, alongside low human capitaldevelopment. In this context, political uncertainty is rising, and humanitar- ian challenges are mounting. The nine-member Transitional Presidential Council,established to exercise presidential pow- ers, is set to end by February 2026. However, general elections scheduled for late 2025 require substantial planning and face securityconstraints. Population 1 Poverty 2 million millions living on less than $3.00/day 11.8 4.1 Life expectancy at birth 3 School enrollment years primary (% gross) 64.9 .. GDP 4 GDP per capita 5 current US$, billion current US$ 25.2 2142.7 Sources: WDI, MFMod, and official data. 1/2024. 2/2012 (2021 PPPs). 3/2023. 4/2024. 5/2024. Recent developments Economic activity weakened due to expanding gang control in the Centre department, political discord, and abrupt leadership changes. The Haitian Institute of Statistics and Information com- posite economic activity index contracted by 2.6 percent in the first half of fiscal year 2025. Agriculture registered the largest decline (-5.8 percent), exacerbating food insecurity. Industry con- tracted by 4.5 percent, as trade policy uncertainty weighed on apparel, Haiti’s main export. Services declined 1.4 percent, led by a weakening hospitality subsector. Despite strong remittances in- flows, the current account deficit (CAD) widened by 0.1 percent of GDP from a balanced position in the same period in 2024, as importstickedup. The bleak business environment contributed to weak tax rev- enues, estimated at 3.5 percent of GDP at the end of Q3FY25. Recurrent expenditures have performed according to the budget plan. Capital expenditures, however, have been constrained by weak procurement processes, inadequate project execution, and insecurity, including capital expenditure to support security forces. Weak revenues and slow capital budget execution yielded FIGURE 1 /Real GDP growth and sectoral contributions to real GDP growth (supply side) -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 2018201920202021202220232024e Agriculture Industry ServicesGDP Percent, percentage points Sources: Haiti Statistical Office (IHSI) and World Band staff calculations. FIGURE 2 /Actual and projected poverty rates and real GDP per capita 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 20122014201620182020202220242026 International poverty rateLower middle-income pov. rate Upper middle-income pov. rateReal GDP pc Real GDP per capita (constant LCU)Poverty rate (%) Source: World Bank. Notes: See footnotes in table on the next page. Macro Poverty Outlook / October 20251 a small fiscal surplus estimated at 0.1 percent of GDP by Q3FY25. Tight monetary policy, and strong remittance inflows eased pres- sure on the gourde, which appreciated 1.3 percent against the US dollar over the first nine months of the fiscal year. Against this backdrop, the current account registered a deficit of 0.07 percent ofGDPduringH1FY2025. Inflation reached 28.4 percent by June 2025, up from 25.3 percent at the outset of the fiscal year in October 2024 as security conditions worsened.Inflation was led by higher food prices (31.5 percent in June 2025) and housing and electricity (43.9 percent in June). More than half of Haiti’s population faced high levels of acute food inse- curity in the March to June 2025 period, and an estimated 8,400 displaced people are experiencing catastrophic hunger. The share of Haitians living on less than US$3.00/day 2021 PPP is estimated to have increased from 42.2 percent in 2021 to 48.7 percent in 2025. Outlook GDP is forecast to contract 2.0 percent in 2025 owing to uncertainty about the political process, insecurity, an unconducive business en- vironment, and receding private consumption. Modest GDP growth is expected by 2026 as investment increases from a low baseline, assuming marginal improvements on the political and security fronts. Uncertainty around the renewal of preferential access to US textile markets may further depress textile exports in the near term. Exports are forecast to accelerate in 2026, contingent on reaching a trade agreement with the United States. The share of Haitians living on less than US$3.00/day 2021 PPP would fall from 48.7 percent in 2025 to 47.3 percent by 2027, if GDP returns to growth over the medium term. The current account deficit (CAD) is expected to narrow in 2025 supported by resilient remittances inflows, widening in subsequent years as imports pick up with modest GDP growth. Increased gov- ernment spending ahead of planned elections is expected to con- tribute to inflationary pressure in 2025, moderating over the medi- um term if security conditions relax supply constraints.With elec- tion spending, the fiscal deficit is expected to reach 0.8 percent in 2025. Tax revenue may gradually improve over the medium term as a new general tax code goes into effect and tighter customs controlsareimplemented. The path ahead remains fraught with downside risks and depends on an effective political transition and improvements in security. A credible budgetary framework and an appropriate mix of fiscal and monetary policy will remain key to reducing inflation and strength- ening growth prospects. Inclusive growth will require strengthen- ing the business environment, expanding social protection, and en- hancing the institutional framework for disaster risk management, including better preparedness and response systems. Recent history and projections 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25e2025/26f2026/27f Real GDP growth, at constant market prices -1.7 -1.9 -4.2 -2.0 2.0 2.5 Private consumption -0.7 0.1 -5.2 -4.6 1.6 1.1 Government consumption 17.6 3.3 1.6 35.0 7.4 2.0 Gross fixed capital investment -9.9 -17.6 -36.3 -16.8 20.0 60.5 Exports, goods and services 2.4 -9.6 -31.9 -15.3 5.5 6.1 Imports, goods and services 4.9 -0.4 -16.2 1.0 6.5 7.3 Real GDP growth, at constant factor prices -1.8 -3.6 -4.4 -2.0 2.0 2.5 Agriculture -4.5 -5.6 -5.6 -3.2 1.0 2.0 Industry -0.4 -3.8 -4.7 -0.6 2.5 3.4 Services -1.6 -2.9 -3.9 -2.2 2.0 2.2 Employment rate (% of working-age population, 15 years+) 55.8 55.8 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4 Inflation (consumer price index) 27.6 44.2 25.8 28.1 19.5 12.0 Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -2.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -1.4 Net foreign direct investment inflow (% of GDP) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -3.2 -2.1 -0.1 -0.8 -0.5 0.1 Revenues (% of GDP) 6.6 7.4 6.0 6.2 6.7 7.2 Debt (% of GDP) 26.6 24.8 15.0 15.0 15.7 15.5 Primary balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -1.8 0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.4 International poverty rate ($3.00 in 2021 PPP) 1,2 43.5 44.6 47.1 48.7 48.3 47.3 Lower middle-income poverty rate ($4.20 in 2021 PPP) 1,2 62.5 64.2 66.4 67.7 67.3 66.8 Upper middle-income poverty rate ($8.30 in 2021 PPP) 1,2 89.5 90.0 91.5 92.1 91.9 91.5 GHG emissions growth (mtCO2e) 0.2 -1.5 -0.7 1.3 3.6 3.9 Source: World Bank, Poverty and Economic Policy Global Departments. Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD. Notes: e = estimate, f = forecast. Data in annual percent change unless indicated otherwise. 1/ Calculations based on SEDLAC harmonization, using 2012-ECVMAS. Actual data: 2012. Nowcast: 2013-2025. Forecasts are from 2026 to 2027. 2/ Projection using neutral distribution (2012) with pass-through = 0.87 (Med (0.87)) based on GDP per capita in constant LCU. Macro Poverty Outlook / October 2025 2