(2025) Cadre de Partenariat Pays pour Haïti pour la Période Année Fiscale 2025-2029

i Document of The World Bank Group FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: 181213-HT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK FOR HAITI FOR THE PERIOD FISCAL YEAR 2025 –2029 January 31, 2025 Haiti Country Management Unit Latin America and Caribbean Region The International Finance Corporation Latin America and the Caribbean Region Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank Group authorization. Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized i International Development Association International Finance Corporation Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency Vice President: Carlos Felipe Jaramillo Alfonso Garcia Mora Ethiopis Tafara Director: Lilia Burunciuc Elizabeth Ann Marcano Sebnem Erol Madan Task Team Leaders: Anne-Lucie Lefebvre Ronke Ogunsulire Persephone Economou ii The date of the last Performance and Learning Review was May 31, 2018 (Report No. 124812-HT) CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange rate as of January 22, 2025) 1 US Dollar = 130.61 Haitian Gourdes FISCAL YEAR October 1 – September 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project M&E Monitoring and Evaluation ASA Advisory services and analytics MCH Maternal and Child Health BINUH United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency CAS Country Assistance Strategy MSPP Ministry of Public Health and Population CCPC Commune-Level Civil Protection Committee (Comité Com- munal de Protection Civile) MSSM Multinational Security Support Mission CE Citizen Engagement MTPTC Ministry of Public Works, Transport and Communication CERC Contingent Emergency Response Component NGO Non-Governmental Organization CLR Completion and Learning Review PAHO Pan-American Health Organization CPF Country Partnership Framework PBA Performance-Based Allocation CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment PDNA Post-Disaster Needs Assessment CRW Crisis Response Window PFM Public financial management CTF Clean Technology Fund PIU Project Implementation Unit DGPC General Civil Protection Directorate PLR Performance and Learning Review DINEPA Water and Sanitation Utility (Direction Nationale de l’Eau Potable et de l’Assainissement) PNH Police Nationale d’Haïti DPO Development Policy Operation PPP Public Private Partnership DRM Disaster Risk Management PSW Private sector window E&S Environmental and social QAS Quality Assurance System EDH Public Electricity Company (Electricité d’Haïti) RBF Result Based Financing EMIS Education Management Information System RCIA Rapid Crisis Impact Assessment ESW Economic and Sector Work RE Renewable Energy EU European Union RECA Remaining Engaged during Conflict Allocation FCS Fragile and Conflict Affected States RF Results Framework FCV Fragility, conflict, and violence RRA Risk and Resilience Assessment FY Fiscal year SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic GBV Gender-based violence SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises GDP Gross Domestic Product SMP Staff-Monitored Program GOH Government of Haiti SREP Scaling up Renewable Energy Program HRITF Health Results Innovation Trust Fund TA Technical Assistance IADB Inter-American Development Bank TSA Treasury Single Account ICR Implementation Completion Report UN United Nations ICRR / Implementation Completion and Results Report UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund ICT Information and Communication Technology US United States IDA International Development Association USAID United States Agency for International Development IFC International Finance Corporation W&S Water and Sanitation IHSI Haitian National Institute of Statistics and Information WB World Bank IMF International Monetary Fund WBG World Bank Group IPF Investment Project Financing WFP World Food Program ISN Interim Strategy Note WMO World Meteorological Organization ISR Implementation Status and Results Report ZMPP Metropolitan Area of Port-au-Prince LAC Latin America and the Caribbean iii Table of Contents ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .......................................................................................................................... ii I. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................. 1 II. COUNTRY CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................................... 2 Poverty, Inequality, Fragility, Conflict and Violence .................................................................................... 2 Recent Economic Developments and Outlook ............................................................................................ 3 Main Development Priority Areas ............................................................................................................... 7 Government Transition Roadmap ............................................................................................................... 8 III. WORLD BANK GROUP PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK .......................................................................................... 8 Lessons from CPF Completion Report and Consultations ........................................................................... 8 Overview of WBG Partnership Framework ............................................................................................... 11 Implementing the CPF ............................................................................................................................... 17 IV. MANAGING RISKS TO THE CPF PROGRAM ....................................................................................................... 19 Annex 1: Country Partnership Framework Results Matrix ................................................................................... 22 Annex 2: Completion and Learning Review .......................................................................................................... 30 Annex 3: Selected Indicators of Bank Portfolio Performance and Management ................................................. 76 Annex 4: Operations Portfolio (IBRD/IDA and Grants) ......................................................................................... 77 Annex 5: Statement of IFC's Held and Disbursed Portfolio .................................................................................. 78 Annex 6. Country Context: Poverty, Inequality, Fragility, Conflict and Violence ................................................. 80 Annex 7. CPF Implementation Model ................................................................................................................... 88 Annex 8. RECA: Preserving Institutions and Human Capital ................................................................................. 91 Annex 9. List of Projects Implemented by UN Agencies (as of December 23, 2024) ........................................... 95 iv List of Tables Table 1. Haiti: Selected Economic Indicators ............................................................................................................. 4 Table 2. Main World Bank Group Knowledge Services ............................................................................................ 16 Table 3. Haiti Indicative International Development Agency (IDA) Lending Program According to Fiscal Year ...... 17 Table 4. Risks to the Haiti Country Partnership Framework Program ..................................................................... 20 List of Figures Figure 1. Share of Population Living Below ................................................................................................................ 3 Figure 2. Inflation, Annual Percentage Change .......................................................................................................... 4 Figure 3. Change in Nighttime Light Intensity, 2018-24 ................................................................................................ 5 Figure 4. Overview of Haiti 2025–29 CPF ................................................................................................................. 13 List of Boxes Box 1. Strengthening Public Governance ................................................................................................................... 7 Box 2. External Shocks and the World Bank Response .............................................................................................. 9 Box 3. Stakeholder Perceptions of the World Bank Group (WBG) ........................................................................... 10 Box 4. International Development Aid ..................................................................................................................... 11 Box 5. Selectivity Filters, Flow, and Identified CPF Objectives and High-Level Outcomes ............................................ 12 1 FISCAL YEAR 2025–29 COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK FOR HAITI HAITI: Preserving Hope, Restoring Growth I. INTRODUCTION 1. This Country Partnership Framework (CPF) sets out the World Bank Group’s (WBG) priorities in helping Haiti restore governance, sustain essential public services, and resume growth. The CPF covers the period from fiscal year (FY) 2025 to 2029 and responds to priorities that the government identified in the Political Agreement for a Peaceful and Orderly Transition of April 3, 2024. 1 It supports the government’s roadmaps and subsequent response strategies to exogenous and man-made shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021 earthquake, and the surge in gang violence. It also reflects the WBG 2021 Country Private Sector Diagnostic and the 2022 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) update. 2 Lessons from the Completion and Learning Review (CLR) and the 2024 Risk and Resilience Assessment Update inform the CPF. The WBG Board of Executive Directors discussed the FY2016–19 CPF on August 27, 2015 3 and the 2018 Performance and Learning Review (PLR) 4 extended it to FY2021. 2. Haiti is navigating a deepening crisis–fragility trap. A combination of political crises, escalating social violence, successive earthquakes, hurricanes, and disease outbreaks (COVID-19 pandemic and resurgence of cholera) over the past decade have deepened poverty and fragility. This was exacerbated by weak institutions, widespread corruption, and extreme inequality. Since 2021, Haiti has witnessed a significant surge in violence committed by armed gangs, as well as conflicts between gangs and the police, affecting all sectors of society and the economy. While these challenges are daunting, Haiti exhibits several resilience factors to its complex internal and external shocks such as a vibrant civil society, an active diaspora, and institutional resilience in key sectors. 3. A framework for crisis resolution and stabilization emerged in the second quarter of 2024, although uncertainty and risks remain high. Major changes have occurred in Haiti since Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s resignation in March 2024. The installation of the transitional presidential council in April initially stabilized political decision- making and was followed by the designation of a prime minister and a new government in June. The April 2024 agreements on an orderly political transition (see section II) provide an opportunity to escape the crisis– fragility trap. Deployment of the United Nations–mandated Multinational Security Support Mission (MSSM) initially helped secure key government institutions and supported several National Police-led operations in Port-au-Prince. However, the political agreement became fragile in the autumn of 2024, leading to another change of government in November 2024, accompanied by a surge in violence that led to the closure of the international airport, paralyzed the movement of goods, and caused further deterioration in socioeconomic conditions. With gangs controlling all major transportation routes, Port-au-Prince experiences periods of quasi-isolation from the rest of the country. 4. In this context, the overarching goal of this CPF is to build resilience by preserving essential institutions and human capital while laying a foundation for economic recovery. Exercising selectivity and focus, the CPF will employ lending, analytics, and partnerships with other development institutions to support a single high-level outcome: build the resilience of the poor. It will focus on preserving development gains and livelihoods for poor and crisis-affected populations by strengthening economic governance, creating job opportunities, maintaining institutional capacity to support delivery of basic services, preserving human capital, and strengthening resilience to natural disasters and man-made shocks. With these objectives, the CPF supports all six of the eight World Bank Global Challenge Programs. 5 1 Various political parties and civil society organizations signed the April 3, 2024, Political Agreement for a Peaceful and Orderly Transition, which outlines the provisions and modalities for decision-making processes during the transition period. 2 Report No. 172801-HT. 3 Report No. 98132-HT. 4 Report No. 124812-HT. 5 The eight global challenge programs are climate change adaptation and mitigation, fragility and conflict, pandemic prevention and preparedness, energy 2 5. The World Bank will continue to leverage all relevant International Development Association (IDA) resources to support government efforts to restore security, political stability, and economic growth. In addition to IDA’s Crisis Response Window (CRW), which has been used effectively in Haiti, the CPF seeks eligibility to access the IDA’s Remaining Engaged during Conflict Allocation (RECA) to help preserve institutional capacity and human capital. While focusing predominantly on areas outside of the capital, wherever security conditions allow, the WBG program will be expanded within the Port-au-Prince's metropolitan area and the Artibonite Region to support recovery. The CPF will seek opportunities to use the blended finance funds of the IDA Private Sector Window (PSW) to help derisk and make private sector projects more bankable. 6. As Haiti meets the IDA20 RECA eligibility criteria, the CPF proposes a portfolio that has the preservation of institutional capacities and human capital among its central objectives. The recent escalation in violence has led the number of fatalities per 100,000 population to surge to 13.4, 6 and emigration of skilled personnel from the public service precipitated the decline of the CPIA score to 2.2 in 2023. Amid such conditions, preservation of national and local institutions is crucial for the country’s recovery and state-building. Accordingly, the strategic objectives of the CPF and the WBG portfolio are aligned with the RECA’s strategic objectives (Annex 8). Two of the three CPF objectives are dedicated to supporting essential institutional capacities to support basic services delivery and strengthening resilience to shocks. The government’s roadmap (“Feuille de Route”) for the transition period until the elections provides an entry point for the WBG and development partners to collaborate closely with key ministries. II. COUNTRY CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT Poverty, Inequality, Fragility, Conflict and Violence 7. Haiti is undergoing one of the most challenging periods in its recent history. Its development has been constrained by a crisis–fragility trap driven by political instability, conflict, and violence, including gang proliferation and governance failures. Various shocks exacerbated the political and economic environment, including the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, a devastating earthquake, and a destructive flood in August 2021. The severe political, economic, and institutional crises precipitated a significant increase in the levels of conflict and violence, with a high number of violent events and fatalities. The resignation of former Prime Minister Ariel Henry in April 2024 marked the beginning of a new period of escalating violence, particularly in the metropolitan area of Port-au-Prince in the Ouest Department, the economic hub of the country. Gangs have expanded influence throughout the region and control key infrastructure or the access to it in more than 80 percent of the metropolitan area (according to the United Nations), disrupting transportation and limiting access to humanitarian aid. The escalation of violence has displaced more than one million people in 2024, further exacerbating the already significant levels of poverty and food insecurity. 8. In 2024, the United Nations Security Council authorized the deployment of the MSSM to support the Haitian National Police to re-establish security and create conditions for free and fair elections. Political factions agreed on a transition process, resulting in the Kingston Declaration and the April 3 Political Agreement for a Peaceful and Orderly Transition. The transitional Presidential Council, established in April 2024, aims to conclude the transition by February 2026 with the support of international development partners. However, significant improvements in security and governance are required to ensure successful elections and to improve the livelihoods of violence-affected populations. International support is crucial for investments in restoring Haiti's social, economic, and physical infrastructure in areas liberated from gangs to generate confidence in the transition process. access, food and nutrition security, water security and access, enabling digitalization, and protecting biodiversity and nature. See Development Committee. 2023. “Ending Poverty on a Livable Planet: Report to Governors on World Bank Evolution.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://www.devcommittee.org/content/dam/sites/devcommittee/doc/documents/2023/Final%20Updated%20Evolution%20Paper%20DC2023- 0003.pdf. 6 For comparison, the fatalities per 100,000 are 9.3 in South America and 12.7 for the Caribbean regions. See UNODC Global Study on Homicide 2023: Hom- icide and Organized Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean; UN Office of Drugs and Crime, 2023. 3 9. Despite such a challenging set of conflict drivers, Haiti has factors of resilience, including a vibrant civil society, an active diaspora, and institutional resilience in key sectors (see Annex 6). While the private sector has shown some resilience, especially in energy and water sectors, and the development of digital financial services, the continuous six years of economic contraction did lead to losses of productivity and jobs, as well as significant brain drain. In the first eight months of 2024 almost a quarter million Haitians immigrated to the United States. 7 The garment sector, for example, (representing about 90 percent of manufactured exports) lost approximately 30,000 jobs in 2024. Leveraging these sources of resilience while improving security, governance, and economic conditions remain vital for breaking out of the crisis– fragility trap and protecting the fragile social and economic capital. 10. Haiti has one of the highest poverty rates in the world. The official poverty rate was last estimated at 58.5 percent (2012), with 24 percent living in extreme poverty. Recent crises, including political instability, violence, economic deterioration, COVID-19, the 2021 earthquake, and Hurricane Grace, as well as the high food price inflation, have reversed previous poverty reduction gains. Living standards are estimated to have deteriorated, with 36.4 percent of Haitians living in extreme poverty in 2024 (less than US$2.15/day based on 2017 purchasing power parity), up from 29.9 percent in 2020 (Figure 1). The economy is predominantly informal (86 percent of the labor force), exhibiting significant urban-rural disparity. The high inequality (Gini coefficient of 0.61), and gender inequalities have worsened. Access to basic services like water, sanitation, and electricity have been limited, particularly for the poor. The conspicuous geographic disparities in poverty are striking in rural areas which are significantly poorer than urban areas. The economic contraction since 2019 has further affected livelihoods, with many households experiencing income losses due also to reduced remittances (See Annex 6). 11. The confluence of global and domestic challenges further aggravated Haiti’s crisis-fragility trap. Haiti's geographic location makes it highly susceptible to climatic shocks. Climate change and natural hazards, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and droughts, disproportionately affect poor and vulnerable populations. Environmental challenges constrain agricultural productivity, worsen food insecurity, and increase health risks from diseases like cholera and malaria. The impacts of natural disasters amplify social grievances, worsens displacement, loss of livelihoods, and increases the demand for scarce resources. Haiti will need an estimated US$22 billion by 2030 to enhance resilience through climate adaptation measures in agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook 12. Haiti’s economy has contracted by an estimated 8.5 percent over the past decade as longstanding structural challenges have increased its vulnerability to shocks. Structural challenges include state capture by vested interests, a non-enabling business environment, underinvestment in human capital, and deficient infrastructure. Underdeveloped financial markets and limited market contestability have contributed to a large informal economy, limiting domestic resource mobilization and fiscal space. The disaster risk management (DRM) and response systems are inadequate to address the vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change. In this context, Haiti has been highly vulnerable to a series of significant shocks since 2018, including the COVID-19 pandemic, a surge in international commodity prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, earthquakes and storms, and most recently, escalation of violence and political instability. 13. The business environment has deteriorated progressively since 2018 and then sharply in 2021 due to a series of sociopolitical disturbances, creating a challenging operating environment for enterprises. Both 2018 and 2019 were characterized by social unrest and waves of violence, including several episodes of complete paralysis 7 National Foundation for American Policy. 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percent 3.65 USD 2017 PPP 2.15 USD 2017 PPP Figure 1. Share of Population Living Below Lower-Middle-Income (US$3.65) and International (US$2.15) Poverty Lines 4 of the economy. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic introduced shocks that led to economic contraction and layoffs. The increase in gang-related violence in 2021 disrupted domestic supply chains, including fuel and food distribution. Partial or permanent closure of production sites and firms, higher security costs, staff resignations because of emigration, and pillaging and vandalism resulting in losses and damage to capital stock (physical and human) led to a decrease in productive activities and profits. 14. The combined effect of multiple domestic and exogenous crises has resulted in a protracted economic contraction, fiscal imbalances, and persistent inflation. Real GDP declined for the fifth consecutive year in 2023 (Table 1) hampered by rising prices of imported commodities, a sharp decline in investments, and contraction of private consumption. Since 2015, declining donor aid, reliance on imported fuels, public subsidies, a failing state power utility needing large budget transfers, and weak domestic revenue collection have reduced fiscal space. 15. Inflation accelerated in 2020 and surged in 2022 as Haiti navigated shocks and logistical disruptions. The sharp depreciation of the Haitian gourde in 2020 led to higher import prices in local currency terms. Central Bank interventions slowed inflation briefly in 2021, before a commodity price shock led to monetization of the deficit, weakening the gourde. Inflation accelerated in late 2022 and early 2023 as food and fuel prices surged, following disruptions at the port due to gang violence, peaking at 49.3 percent. In 2024 headline inflation trended downward (26.6 percent in November 2024), however food inflation remained high, affecting poor households the most (Figure 2). Although inflation has eased from its peak in 2023, past monetization of the deficit and global price pressures, such as those affecting food and fuel, have contributed to persistent inflationary pressure. Table 1. Haiti: Selected Economic Indicators (annual % change unless otherwise indicated) 2022 2023e 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f Real GDP growth, at constant market prices -1.7 -1.9 -4.2 0.5 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.4 Private consumption -0.7 0.1 -0.3 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 Government consumption 17.6 3.3 -15.1 57.6 9.2 14.8 17.2 14.3 Gross fixed capital investment -9.9 -17.6 -31.5 -74.8 52.9 25.9 19.0 17.1 Exports of goods and services 2.4 -9.6 -4.4 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.7 Imports of goods and services 4.9 -0.4 -3.1 6.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 6.7 Real GDP growth, at constant factor prices -1.8 -3.6 -4.2 0.5 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.4 Agriculture -4.5 -5.6 -4.5 1.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 Industry -0.4 -3.7 -4.0 1.5 2.0 3.0 2.2 2.5 Services -1.6 -3.0 -4.2 -0.2 1.0 1.8 2.9 2.4 Inflation (Consumer Price Index) 27.6 44.2 26.1 30.6 14.7 11.0 9.4 7.5 Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -3.3 -0.2 -1.0 -3.1 -4.8 -5.0 -6.1 Net foreign direct investment (% of GDP) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -3.2 -2.3 -0.6 -2.5 -1.9 -1.5 -1.5 -1.1 General Government Debt (% of GDP) 27.6 24.2 15.2 16.5 17.1 16.0 14.8 14.1 Primary balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -2.0 -0.3 -2.2 -1.6 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9 Sources: Institut Haïtien de Statistique et d'Informatique and staff calculations. e = estimate; f = forecast 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 CPI CPI - Local Products CPI - Imported Products Figure 2. Inflation, Annual Percentage Change 5 16. Changes in nighttime light intensity reflect Haiti’s prolonged economic contraction, illustrating the particularly severe impact of insecurity on Port-au- Prince. Nighttime light intensity is strongly correlated with economic activity and is often used to assess the gross domestic product (GDP). 8 Nighttime light intensity in Haiti is highest in the urban centers of Port-au-Prince and Cap Haïtien, where economic activity is concentrated. Figure 3 illustrates the substantial, persistent decline in nighttime light intensity in Port-au- Prince—an estimated 45.9 percent from January 2018 to August 2024. 9 17. Haiti’s trade deficit has widened since 2019, led by a decline in exports. As in other countries, the COVID- 19 pandemic dampened demand for exports in 2020, particularly for apparel. Exports continued to decline in US dollar terms in 2023 and 2024 amid widespread insecurity and disruptions to port operations. Imports also decreased during the pandemic but rapidly increased in value terms as global commodity prices rose in 2021 and 2022. Persistent economic contraction and depreciation of the gourde have limited demand for imports. Remittance inflows, which increased with more workers leaving the country, have been an important external source of stability, helping finance an increasing trade deficit. The current account balance has oscillated as a result of changes in the trade balance and remittances, moving from deficit in 2019 to surplus in 2020 as imports contracted and back into deficit as international commodity prices surged in 2022 and 2023, resulting in an increase in the import bill. Higher remittance inflows are estimated to have contributed to a narrowing of the current account deficit to 0.2 percent of GDP in 2024. 18. Fiscal and monetary underperformance reflect the challenging economic, political, and security context. Revenues and expenditures have declined as a percentage of GDP since 2015. As Haiti collects more than 50 percent of its tax revenues at the border, the contraction in trade has compressed government revenues. The fiscal deficit widened substantially during and after the pandemic. Part of the deficit was monetized, contributing to inflationary pressures and leading to a depreciation of the currency. Subdued economic activity and weakened administrative capacity have reduced sales tax revenues. Revenue collection strengthened moderately in 2023 following administrative reforms in Customs and an increase in fuel tax revenue, whereas an increase in violence impaired implementation of capital projects in 2024. As a result, the deficit has narrowed, and for the first time in many years, monetary financing remained within statutory limits of 20 percent of the previous fiscal year’s tax revenues. Despite low tax revenues, the fiscal deficit is projected to narrow from 2.3 percent of GDP in FY2023 to 0.6 percent of GDP in FY2024 owing to retrenchment of capital expenditures, containment of non-priority expenditures, and lower debt service. 19. The security crisis has also reduced institutional capacities and amplified deficiencies in essential functions of human resource management. Public sector employment fell by almost 8 percent, from 112,631 in September 2021 to 104,029 in June 2024. 10 More than half of the departing civil servants were technical staff. This situation has also greatly affected the personnel of local administrations in affected areas, where dozens of employees have left. Municipal offices have been closed and abandoned in some places, such as Gressier. 20. Climate change compounds policy and institutional weaknesses because of Haiti’s vulnerability to natural disasters and climate events. Its geographic location makes it vulnerable to climatic anomalies, with more than 93 percent of its surface area and 96 percent of its population at risk from hazards including hurricanes, floods, 8 Beyer, R., Y. Hu, and J. Yao. 2022. “Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space.” Policy Research Working Paper 9893, World Bank, Washington, DC; Henderson, J. V., A. Storeygard, and D. N. Weil. 2012. “Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space.” American Economic Review 102 (2): 994–1028.; Morris, S. D., and J. Zhang. 2019. “Validating China’s Output Data Using Satellite Observations.” Macroeconomic Dynamics 23 (8): 3327–54. 9 Nighttime light intensity as measured by a moving average of daily mean nano-watts using NASA VNP46A2 data. 10 Based on data published by the Direction Général du Budget, https://budget.gouv.ht/. Note: CPI, Consumer Price Index Figure 3. Change in Nighttime Light Intensity, 2018-24 6 earthquakes, landslides, and droughts. In 2017, the Maplecroft Index (Climate Change Vulnerability Index) included Haiti among the three most-vulnerable countries to climate change in the world. Such environmental contingencies present pronounced fiscal and operational challenges, impeding Haiti’s development. The 2010 earthquake destroyed the equivalent of 120 percent of its GDP, Hurricane Matthew in 2016 caused losses amounting to 32 percent of GDP, and the 2021 earthquake caused more than 2,000 deaths, with damages estimated at 11 percent of GDP. 21. If security were restored, services, construction, export-oriented textiles and garments, and agriculture could drive growth. Projected growth over the CPF implementation period reflects conservative estimates based on a modest recovery. Security costs, forced worker absenteeism, disruptions in supply chains, limited logistical infrastructure, and an unreliable electricity supply have affected the garment sector. 11 An improvement in security conditions would substantially benefit the services, construction, and manufacturing sectors substantially, although a revival of private investment would take time. 12 Haiti has the potential to significantly increase production and exports of high-value crops (e.g., coffee, cocoa), select niche products (e.g., castor oil, vetiver), and fruits (e.g., mango, papaya). To accelerate growth, the agricultural sector must overcome longstanding challenges such as market fragmentation, lack of infrastructure maintenance, inadequate automation leading to low productivity, limited access to finance, constrained competition, ineffective tax policies, and reliance on food imports. 22. A series of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Staff-Monitored Programs (SMP) have strengthened the fiscal and monetary policy framework to support growth. A SMP that began in June 2022 helped build capacity, supported efforts to reduce inflation and increase growth, addressed governance weaknesses, combated corruption, and strengthened social assistance. A second SMP (June 2023 to March 2023, extended to September 2024) supported the implementation of reforms to enhance economic resilience and governance; reforms focused on implementing the new tax code to mobilize additional revenues and on continuing to enhance public financial management (PFM). The IMF approved a new SMP on December 20, 2024, covering the period through December 2025. This new SMP is expected to strengthen macroeconomic stability and enhance economic resilience and governance, macroeconomic priorities for the year ahead. The IMF’s capacity development assistance supports the SMP, in line with the IMF’s Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States. The 2024 Article IV consultation was presented to the IMF Executive Board on November 20, 2024, including an updated joint World Bank–IMF debt sustainability analysis. 23. Although Haiti’s public debt remains sustainable, the overall risk of debt distress is assessed as high. Public debt increased in the years after debt relief from the 2010 earthquake, when Haiti received debt relief of approximately US$1.0 billion, including US$268 million from the Post-Catastrophe Debt Relief Trust Fund and US$36 million from the World Bank. 13 Debt rose steadily until FY2020, driven by external disbursements from Venezuela’s PetroCaribe program and domestic monetary financing. Haitian and Venezuelan authorities finalized an agreement on debt restructuring in January 2024 in which US$1.7 billion in debt forgiveness was provided after a US$500 million lump sum payment. Although debt indicators improved, the most recent debt sustainability analysis found a high risk of overall and external debt distress. This results from a steady upward trend of the public debt service-to-revenue ratio, and the high risk of external debt distress results from a gradual resumption of external financing amid weak export growth. External general government debt was US$2.35 billion in FY2023 (11.3 percent of GDP). 14 24. Haiti is exposed to a range of downside risks, and its medium-term prospects remain uncertain. Such risks include uncertainty about the government’s capacity to hold elections (local, legislative, presidential) within the set timeline and whether gang violence can be sufficiently curbed to hold these elections on time. Other potential sources of social tension are implementation of a fuel price adjustment mechanism in a context of rising oil prices, 11 Haiti Country Private Sector Diagnostic, 2021. Available at: https://www.ifc.org/en/insights-reports/2021/cpsd-haiti. 12 Improving management of public industrial parks and promoting fair competition between public and private industrial sectors by optimizing geographic allocation of public investment would support the country’s efforts to attract foreign investment (Haiti CPSD 2021). 13 The World Bank also provided US$508 million in grant financing from the IDA CRW to support Haiti’s reconstruction and long-term restoration of capacity. 14 All outstanding external debt is concessional, including the debt arranged with Venezuela through the Petrocaribe agreement, which accounts for 78.4 percent of total external public debt. 7 high unemployment, and food insecurity. Continuing deterioration of governance, endemic corruption, political instability, social unrest, risk of new natural disasters, and sanitary crises are also downside risks to the outlook. Main Development Priority Areas 25. Mistrust in government actions and the government’s limited capacity to design and engage in comprehensive reforms limit the ability to address current macro-fiscal imbalances and deep-seated structural challenges. Political instability, high government turnover, insecurity, environmental disasters, and emigration of public servants have paralyzed political decision making. 15 In this context, Haiti’s GDP growth has remained weak and constrained by negative total factor productivity growth. Political instability and vested economic interests are significant obstacles to private sector development and competitiveness, exacerbating preexisting challenges in access to finance and the business environment. Illicit trade in drugs and weapons undermines the stability and integrity of the banking sector and, thereby, financial development. 26. Given the high likelihood of continued political instability in the near future, Haiti needs to increase the resilience of critical state institutions, systems, and capacities in the short term while establishing foundations for longer-term transformational reforms. Lack of transparency and accountability in public resource management weakens service delivery outcomes, erodes citizen trust in government, and fuels social and political grievances, contestation, and violence. This trend is particularly challenging given the current tight fiscal situation in which the state’s ability to mobilize and use resources and increase public investment in key sectors remains weak. 16 Over the past decade, in collaboration with the donor community, the government has focused on strengthening institutions and governance systems by implementing a series of initiatives (Box 1). 27. Access to the IDA RECA funds will support the government’s priorities in the current context of FCV. The RECA will be used to fund operations designed to preserve state capacities and sustain critical social services. To ensure that the RECA-financed program is aligned with WBG strategic priorities, the eligibility note is integrated into this CPF. When political, security, and administrative conditions permit, the team may also present an eligibility note for the Prevention and Resilience Allocation under the 21 st IDA cycle to enhance the dialogue with the government on a relevant reform plan and increase coordination with development partners. 15 Intensive policy dialogue resulted in a significant one-time adjustment of fuel prices in May 2017 under the newly elected government. 16 Poorly performing tax and customs administrations remain major challenges facing Haitian authorities. While the economic crisis and the weight of tax expenditures limit revenue collection, the tax system is weak, with institutional loopholes that have facilitated tax fraud and evasion. Box 1. Strengthening Public Governance Central and local state institutions remain weak and impede effective, inclusive service delivery to citizens. Although results have been limited, the government has implemented measures to strengthen its regulatory and operating public financial management (PFM) framework. The government has undertaken efforts to enhance the credibility of the budget and make it a more effective instrument of public resource management through promulgation of the 2016 Law on the Preparation and Execution of the Budget Laws, which introduced provisions for stronger linkages between public policies, their objectives, and allocated resources. Other key reforms include launch of the Single Treasury Account for greater control of state cash resources, ongoing development of the integrated PFM system for transparency and accountability, and implementation of the recently approved General Tax Code and Customs Procedures Code. Development partners (European Union, Organization of American States, U.S. Agency for International Development, World Bank, International Monetary Fund) are helping the government strengthen accountability of institutions to address the widespread corruption and impunity. Donors helped improve existing institutional anti-corruption systems and processes, including reviewing and implementing the Anti-Corruption Unit Organic Law, strengthening the public procurement management framework by reviewing the Public Procurement Code, and establishing a price reference system for public procurement. The World Bank has launched initiatives to increase the technical capacity of internal and external control institutions and supports the National Risk Assessment to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. Donors such as the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and Canada have designed interventions to strengthen local governance in 18 municipalities of the Great South according to the priorities of the Ministry of Interior and Territorial Communities. 8 Government Transition Roadmap 28. In accordance with the provisions of the Political Agreement of April 3, 2024 for a peaceful and orderly transition—reiterated by the government on December 4—the Government Transition Roadmap 17 sets five main priorities: (i) public security and national security; (ii) economic recovery, infrastructure rehabilitation, food and health security; (iii) national conference and constitutional questions; (iv) rule of law and justice; and (v) elections for the renewal of political staff. The roadmap also sets additional priorities for increasing growth and resilience. Economic recovery will be supported by deploying an emergency economic plan, assessing sector needs, mobilizing resources through public-private partnerships (PPPs), rebuilding critical infrastructure, and increasing energy access. Infrastructure rehabilitation focuses on rebuilding critical facilities, such as police stations, schools, health care centers, and transportation hubs. Food security will be sought through increasing agricultural production and prioritizing local food sourcing. Health security initiatives are designed to strengthen health care regulations, emergency preparedness, and surveillance systems. The roadmap also identifies urgent quick-impact actions, such as organizing a national security roundtable, creating temporary jobs, initiating a youth support program, and launching consumer protection mechanisms. III. WORLD BANK GROUP PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK Lessons from CPF Completion Report and Consultations 29. The CPF builds on lessons learned from the FY2016-21 CPF program and the two gap years of FY2022 and FY2023 documented in the Completion and Learning Review (CLR). The C R confirmed that the WBG’s main value proposition in Haiti is sustaining country engagement to address fragility drivers and building flexibility and adaptability in interventions for effective implementation. The CLR highlighted measurement difficulties when using complex indicators in an FCV environment. In such settings, indicators should be tailored to the capacity of the country, combining output- and outcome-based indicators. Four key lessons are highlighted: Lesson 1. A risk-informed, adaptive approach at the portfolio and project levels is necessary to sustain results under uncertainty. Leaving the outer years of the CPF unprogrammed provided flexibility for course correction and adjustments to respond to changing needs and priorities as the government’s political will for meaningful reforms waned. For instance, the Rebuilding Energy Infrastructure and Access Project (P127203) shifted from reforming the electricity utility, Electricité d’Haïti, to increasing access to on- and off-grid renewable energy and private capital mobilization. It also mobilized support for institutional reforms where these were possible, and amplified results (including in education, health care, social protection, transportation, and water) in those areas. Lesson 2. Investments in protecting government capacity for delivery has high payoffs. The government’s capacity constraints in recent decades have significantly limited the implementation of the World Bank program in Haiti. Removing these constraints by strengthening institutions at the national level was an investment in ensuring successful program implementation. For instance, more than two decades of steady WBG support for DRM efforts, in collaboration with other development partners, paved the way for the adoption of the national DRM system and the creation in 2020 of the Directorate of Civil Protection under the Disaster Risk Management and Reconstruction Project (P126346). With an institutional mandate and greater capacity, the Directorate of Civil Protection has been able to respond more effectively to recent disasters, including the 2021 earthquake. Similar results at the central and local levels in the agricultural, education, health care, and transportation sectors have been achieved with capacity building. Lesson 3. Stronger complementarity across sectors and instruments leads to better results and greater development effectiveness. Coordination across sectors and instruments in targeted geographic areas using a territorial approach has been effective. Examples include the Improving Maternal and Child Health through Integrated Social Services Project (P123706) and the Sustainable Rural and Small Towns Water and Sanitation 17 “Éléments de la feuille de route du Gouvernement de Transition”. 9 Project (P148970) which worked together to control cholera. The Disaster Risk Management and Reconstruction Project (P126346) and Promoting a More Equitable, Sustainable, and Safer Education Project (P174707) also collaborated to rehabilitate schools and use them as shelters in emergencies and to provide DRM training. Advisory services and analytics (ASAs) have been critical in identifying strategic entry points for complementarities among ongoing and new operations. Lesson 4. The proliferation of projects and program fragmentation in a country with deteriorating operating conditions do not necessarily lead to greater effectiveness. The Performance and Learning Review (PLR) of May 31, 2018 (Report No: 124812-HT) initiated consolidation of the large legacy portfolio by re-focusing resources from non-performing interventions (e.g., on-grid electricity access) toward operations which were delivering results. These consolidation efforts were sustained during the gap years despite a significant increase in funding to support government’s reconstruction priorities after the August 2021 earthquake (Box 2). For instance, the territorial focus and use of additional financing helped keep the number of investment projects stable. Many of the innovative operational arrangements introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g. remote work and supervision) remained effective and demonstrated resilience during the gap years. Stakeholder Consultations 30. A series of consultations with stakeholders from the government, development partners, private sector, professional organizations, and women’s groups informed the proposed CPF. Consultations with the government helped secure valuable feedback on the program selection, prioritization, and design. The government expressed interest in deepening WBG engagement on governance (consolidating the PFM agenda and increasing revenue mobilization, notably at Customs), infrastructure (in particular by rehabilitating the road network in Port-au-Prince and reestablishing connectivity between the capital and the regions), and disaster risk preparedness and management (by continuing the effort to build institutional capacity at the central (Directorate of Civil Protection) and local levels). Discussions were also conducted while preparing the 2024 Rapid Crisis Impact Assessment (RCIA), the SCD Update, the Risk and Resilience Assessment Update, 18 the Gender Assessment, 19 and the CLR. Consultations were organized in May 2023 to discuss the recommendations for the CPF, and in October and November 2023 on the (initially envisaged) Prevention and Resilience Allocation Eligibility Note with a wide variety of stakeholders that provided important perspectives on the livelihoods of populations directly affected 18 World Bank. Haiti Risk and Resilience Update. Unpublished. April 2024. 19 World Bank. 2023. “Haiti’s Untapped Potential: An Assessment of the Barriers to Gender Equality.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4b69af839b59351a5d7a245d71a57c13-0370012023/related/Haiti-Gender-Assessment-report-Summary.pdf. Box 2. External Shocks and the World Bank Response After the earthquake of August 14, 2021, the WBG provided a comprehensive package of technical and financial support for resilient recovery as a contribution to the government’s Plan de Relèvement Intégré de la Péninsule Sud. Its phased approach included: • US$40 million payment under the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility to the government within 10 days of the quake. • US$38 million for rapid support under ongoing operations through contract amendments to transportation, agricultural, health care, education, social protection, and disaster risk management (DRM) projects. • US$60 million reallocated through the triggering of Contingency Emergency Response Components (CERC) across various projects. • A global disaster damage estimation within a week of the earthquake, followed by a post disaster needs assessment with support from the United Nations (UN), European Union (EU), and Inter-American Development Bank (IADB). Based on the post disaster needs assessment, damage and losses in Haiti were estimated to be US$1.62 billion and needs to be US$1.98 billion. • For the longer-term recovery and reconstruction phase, US$150 million was mobilized from IDA’s CRW (IDA19), including US$60 million for replenishing the CERCs and US$90 million for topping up operations under preparation in transportation, agriculture, food security, and education. 10 by violence. The Country Opinion Survey (2021) provided a deeper understanding of stakeholders’ perceptions of the WBG’s role, products, and services (Box 3). Box 3. Stakeholder Perceptions of the World Bank Group (WBG) From May to July 2021, 180 stakeholders participated in Haiti’s Country Opinion Survey Report carried out by the World Bank (19 percent response rate). Participants were drawn from various stakeholder groups, including the Office of the President, project implementation units, local and international non-governmental organizations, the private sector, and academia. Some 83 percent of respondents were familiar with the World Bank, and 11 percent had collaborated with the IFC. Respondents’ ratings of the WBG were significantly correlated with their assessment of its overall effectiveness in Haiti, indicating their agreement that the WBG plays a relevant role in Haiti’s development. Forty-eight percent of respondents identified lack of security as the country's most significant source of fragility, as opposed to corruption, as in the 2018 survey. Forty-four percent estimated that job creation would reduce poverty the most, and 61 percent indicated that education was the most important development priority. Almost 80 percent highlighted WBG’s collaboration with the government and the UN and treatment of its clients and stakeholders in Haiti with respect. Almost 75 percent of respondents agreed that the knowledge that the WBG produces meets the country’s needs. Overall, respondents confirmed that the WBG is plays a relevant role in Haiti’s development and that its program aligns with national priorities. On average 82 percent of participants agreed that the WBG effectively monitors and evaluates the projects and programs it supports, and 75 percent felt that the WBG increased Haiti’s institutional capacities. Fifty-six percent believed that the WBG disburses funds promptly, and 54 percent believed that it makes decisions promptly. Approximately 20 percent of respondents felt that WBG processes are too slow and complex. Twenty-four percent of respondents expected that the WBG would increase the level of capacity development in the country, and 21 percent felt that the WBG should collaborate more effectively with government clients. Partnerships and Donor Coordination 31. Although international assistance has played a crucial role in addressing past crises, the level of overseas development assistance is variable. Historically, the significant foreign assistance that flowed into the country in response to natural disasters and catastrophes has had limited socioeconomic impacts because the flows were unpredictable and fragmented. Challenges arose from balancing humanitarian relief with longer-term development needs. Moreover, relief efforts declined over time, as in the case of overseas development assistance since its peak in response to the 2010 earthquake (Error! Reference source not found.). Factors such as absorption and implementation capacities have also been significant constraints for the government, private sector, and non-governmental organizations. 32. Coordination of international assistance is crucial for achieving sustainable, effective results. Insufficient coordination of international development aid and fragmentation and lack of predictability in flows have limited socioeconomic results. Promoting consistent agendas among development partners and agreeing on harmonized messages is key for effective coordination. The limited absorption and implementation capacity within the government, private sector, and nongovernmental organizations is another important consideration for adopting coordinated and joint approaches and programs. 33. There is room for improvement for the coordination of international assistance within government. The Ministry of Planning and External Cooperation leads the National Coordination System of Foreign Assistance (multilateral and bilateral) and is accountable to the Council of Ministers. Stakeholders are organized into technical working groups coordinated by a government secretariat. There are 15 working groups, organized according to sectors (e.g., water, food security), but not all are active, and the weakness of state institutions and their lack of planning capability cause technical partners to circumvent these systems. In the last few years, international development partners started to hold regular technical consultations to inform the discussions among the heads of missions, but more needs to be done. 11 Overview of WBG Partnership Framework 34. The overarching goal of this CPF is to build resilience for the poor and vulnerable while strengthening the foundations for resuming growth. The theory of change underlying the CPF (Box 5) is designed to prevent economic and social deterioration by preserving institutions and human capital; strengthening the resilience of the poor; and focusing on economic management reforms, governance, basic service delivery, and resilience to natural disasters and man-made shocks. This approach requires flexibility and adaptability at the program and project levels. The future PLR will adjust the WBG program once the prerequisites for a stabilization scenario are met. Selectivity 35. The country engagement focuses on areas where the WBG can add most value (Box 5). While the WBG program will focus on mitigating the risks of further deterioration of human capital, physical infrastructure, and institutional capacity, the engagement is also designed to lay the foundations for economic and social recovery whenever conditions allow. CPF activities will: (i) support strengthening of accountable, transparent, inclusive governance; (ii) promote equal access to economic opportunities; (iii) address social and economic drivers of grievance and violence; and (iv) reestablish state presence to restore trust in public institutions. The WBG will regularly reexamine the geographic focus of its interventions, including a potential engagement in Port-au-Prince, in close coordination with development partners as political and security conditions change. In the meantime, it will continue implementing its program in areas outside of the capital. 36. The RCIA investment plan provides an additional filter through which to identify the most urgent priorities and opportunities for collaboration during the country’s political transition period leading to elections in February 2026. The government requested an RCIA to quantify the impact of and the needs arising from the security crisis since 2021 and develop an investment plan for the transition period. The World Bank led the development of this assessment in collaboration with the UN, European Union, and IADB. As the RCIA investment plan and the implementation framework are fully aligned with the government priorities for the transition period, they provide an important mechanism for coordination with partners and government on strategic priorities. Box 4. International Development Aid International aid plays a vital role in Haiti for crisis response, stability, and essential services. Still it has been highly variable, with large inflows after major disasters followed by steady declines. This variability, often associated with lack of accountability and corruption, has strained the government's coordination and absorptive capacity. Overseas development assistance has expanded and sustained basic services in the short term but has reduced pressure on political elites to allocate public funding for the same services in the longer term. Low levels of public finance diminish the net effect of overseas development assistance and threaten its sustainability. A primary focus on the relief sectors—DRM, education, health care, water—as is often the case, has created tension between short- term humanitarian intervention and medium-term development assistance, prioritizing aid distribution mechanisms for rapid, direct assistance to build national and local capacities for long-term growth and development. Figure B4.1 Overseas Development Assistance, Remittances, Public In- vestment and Social Spending (Percentage of GDP) 12 Box 5. Selectivity Filters, Flow, and Identified Country Partnership Framework (CPF) Objectives and High-Level Outcomes The CPF applied three selectivity filters augmented by additional considerations recommended in the 2023 SCD, which include drivers of fragility, government implementation capacity, and territorial approach (a geographic focus through the lens of poverty, security, and access to services). The selectivity reflects WBG principles on fragility, conflict, and violence engagement—strong people-centric focus on gender, youth, and the most vulnerable. The RCIA investment plan provided an additional filter to the country diagnostics to identify the most urgent priorities and opportunities for collaboration until the end of the transition period. Selectivity was further anchored in the country development goals laid out in the government’s transition roadmap and grounded on areas where the WBG has solid experience and expertise (“comparative advantage”). The SCD and country diagnosis identified four main priority areas for engagement: (i) restoring macroeconomic stability and strengthening core governance systems; (ii) fostering economic recovery and better job opportunities; (iii) preserving basic services and human capital; and (iv) increasing resilience to natural and man-made shocks. Increasing resilience of the poor is a long-term cross-cutting priority that shapes the economy and institutions; human capital, households, and basic services; physical infrastructure and connectivity; food production systems; water resources; and disaster risk preparedness and response. Increasing resilience is also central to addressing core socioeconomic drivers of violence in Haiti. Figure B5.1. Selectivity Flow for Identifying Country Partnership Framework (CPF) Objectives and High-Level Outcomes Insecurity and violence due to gang activities are the main drivers of fragility in Haiti, and the WBG has no comparative advantage or the instruments to address security or rule-of-law government priorities. However, the WBG plans to collaborate with other development partners to address their socioeconomic root causes in key geographic areas with high instability risks, potentially expanding to Port-au-Prince as needed and conditions allow. Moreover, government’s public and national security include priorities mitigating the extreme vulnerability to natural disasters and shocks. Results Framework 37. The CPF program is formulated on the premise of a sustained WBG presence in Haiti and strong partnership with other development partners, especially UN agencies, in sectors with long-standing engagement and good implementation record. The CPF will deploy lending, analytical services, and partnerships in support of one high-level outcome – build the resilience of the poor – supported by three strategic objectives: (i) strengthening economic governance and creating employment opportunities; (ii) maintaining essential institutional capacity for the provision of basic service delivery; and (iii) preserving human capital to increase resilience to natural disasters and shocks (Figure 4). 13 Figure 4. Overview of Haiti 2025–29 CPF High-Level Outcome: Build the Resilience of the Poor 38. As previously stated, the poor—65.6 percent of Haiti’s population—are highly vulnerable to natural hazards and man-made shocks, social unrest, violence, and weak governance, which severely limit household incomes and consumption, deepening fragility. Preserving development gains and creating economic opportunities for the poor is crucial because Haiti’s economic recovery will depend on preserving basic services and restoring investments in human capital. Haiti’s young population could provide a demographic dividend if human capital and productive capacity could be harnessed and the dramatic increase in emigration, mainly young and/or qualified workers, could be slowed. Gender equity gaps remain in service access and employment. Preserving the development gains for the most vulnerable is the first foundational need that needs to be addressed to restore functioning institutions by restoring the social contract. 39. The theory of change puts the highest priority on addressing drivers of fragility. The CPF is designed to help improve economic governance and expand employment opportunities, including for youth; support service delivery to address citizens’ basic needs; and protect human capital and build resilience to disaster risk at the local level. Under a single, consolidated high-level outcome, the WBG will support three objectives as follows. Objective 1: Strengthen economic governance and create job opportunities 40. The WBG will continue to support short- and medium-term actions that can catalyze long-term structural changes. In addressing the factors of deterioration—endemic macroeconomic imbalances, low and highly unequal growth, and limited private sector competition—the government, with WBG support, will anchor long-term structural changes in short-term actions designed to help break out of the low-level equilibrium and address key socioeconomic grievances that drive unrest and violence. Addressing macroeconomic imbalances and fostering domestic and foreign private sector confidence are critical to creating better job opportunities, including for youth. In this vein, through investment and advisory projects, IFC will strategically focus on laying the groundwork for private sector development so that it can grow as economic stability returns, with a focus on key sectors such as MSMEs (especially access to finance for the underserved), renewable energy (such as private sector– driven distributed generation, or mini-grids), agriculture value chains, health care, and PPPs in key infrastructure. Potentially, such investments could be supported by the WBG Guarantee Platform, housed at the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), and by the IDA Private Sector Window (PSW). 41. Strengthening climate-resilient agriculture, promoting climate-smart agricultural technologies for greater productivity, and providing access to credit and financial resources are crucial for improving livelihoods and increasing food security, particularly for rural households. Climate change is decreasing agricultural productivity, perpetuating Haiti’s chronic food insecurity and dependence on food imports. The government’s high- 14 labor-intensity programs in agriculture support land management and production while creating opportunities for individuals with disabilities and freeing women from caregiving responsibilities, enabling their participation in economic activities. Agriculture projects supported by the WBG, including IFC support to local supply chains, aim to increase food security. Policy reforms in the agriculture sector such as incentivizing the production of more resilient, market-oriented crop varieties and developing rural infrastructure could allow companies to scale up, improving investment opportunities for the private sector, potentially supported by WBG’s Guarantee Platform. 42. Improving road, energy, water, and digital access is vital, especially for rural populations engaged in agricultural value chains. Haiti’s acute infrastructure deficit, especially in terms of access to electricity, the internet, and all-weather roads, hampers economic growth and perpetuates underdevelopment and fragility. Investments in these sectors will reduce transportation barriers, make renewable energy available (for the public and private sectors), support governance, and help decrease destabilization and gang violence. Investments in climate-proof housing and renewable energy, potentially through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs), can bolster economic resilience. IFC will explore PPPs with high potential for replicability in key infrastructure sectors, such as water and off-grid renewable energy in rural areas. The WBG Guarantee Platform could support private sector investments in such partnerships. For example, foreign investments in PPPs could be de-risked with political risk insurance guarantees utilizing IDA PSW. IFC will also consider using the IDA PSW for such projects. Objective 2: Maintain essential institutional capacity to support basic services delivery 43. Institutional modernization at the central level, implementation of key decentralization reforms, and promotion of greater accountability and citizen engagement at all government levels are critical for delivering equitable, effective services; addressing socioeconomic grievances regarding inequality and exclusion; and restoring private sector confidence. The challenging policy environment limits the capabilities of public institutions at the central and local levels for service delivery. Together with development partners, the WBG will help the government promote greater accountability and citizen engagement and improved technical and financial operations through private sector engagement. Progress in these areas will pave the way for more equitable and effective service delivery, restoring private sector confidence, rebuilding the trust of the population, and preventing escalation of the crisis–fragility cycle. 44. Under this objective, the WBG aims to assist the government in the critical areas of public service delivery in education, health care, water, and sanitation. IFC will work on supporting private health care and water and sanitation, especially in areas where interventions translate directly into better outcomes for the population, as well as opportunities that foster productivity and growth. The WBG Guarantee Platform may potentially provide support for investments in these areas. The results sought will aim to reinstate disrupted basic services, mitigate governance risks to service delivery, and improve gender equity of service provision. The objective is to protect human capital and address key social grievances driving unrest and violence, with a focus on poor and at-risk populations (Annex 1). Policy reforms in the health sector could facilitate IFC and private sector participation, for example: simplifying and up-dating regulations, supporting the availability of health insurance services; and simplifying certification procedures and improving transparency of the procurement system for essential medical supplies. 45. Sustaining access to basic education while seeking to improve learning conditions in public and private schools is essential for preventing the chronic learning crisis from deepening. The COVID-19 pandemic and rising insecurity contributed to learning losses because of school closures and disruptions. Limited government financing for education forces most students into private schools, straining many families financially. Increasing the government’s capacity to regulate and monitor quality of education is crucial for improving education outcomes and providing opportunities and livelihood options for youth as alternatives to violence. 46. Sustaining essential health care services while increasing capacity to respond to pandemics and health emergencies will prevent further deterioration in the ability to meet basic medical needs. There are critical weaknesses in Haiti’s health care system, as evidenced by lack of facility-based deliveries for women and inadequate 15 vaccination coverage for children. 20 COVID-19 worsened key health indicators. Haiti’s health care system has critical weaknesses in preparedness and response capacity for multiple hazards, including disease outbreaks, natural disasters, and climate change. Cholera has reemerged as a significant threat. Domestic and external health care financing is expected to continue to decrease, leaving the health care system at risk of collapse. Objective 3: Preserve human capital and strengthen resilience to natural disasters and man-made shocks 47. Haiti’s exposure to natural disasters, aggravated by the impact of climate change, undermines its development efforts and exacerbates chronic poverty by deepening sectoral and territorial vulnerabilities. Physical infrastructure in all sectors is significantly exposed to natural disasters. Roads are the primary mode of transportation for people and goods, but Haiti’s road network is limited and vulnerable. Ongoing violence and insecurity disrupt key road networks between metropolitan Port-au-Prince and the rest of the country. In addition, Haiti’s rapid, unregulated urbanization resulting in overcrowded cities with constrained mobility, limited access to services and opportunities, and exposure to natural disasters. 21 48. Haiti faces chronic food insecurity and malnutrition, exacerbated by climate change and violence. In addition to the 4.9 million people who are food insecure or severely insecure, one-quarter of children are chronically malnourished. Between 2015 and 2021, climate change decreased agricultural output by an average of 1.2 percent per year. Possible solutions include increasing the agricultural sector’s resilience and adaptation to climate change by promoting sustainable practices, diversifying production, enhancing irrigation and water management, and strengthening early warning and disaster risk-reduction systems. 22 49. Social protection programs are limited, fragmented, and inadequately coordinated, compounding extreme welfare inequality and socioeconomic exclusion. Delivery systems are not comprehensive, 23 and existing programs fall short of addressing the needs of poor and at-risk households. The WB will support enhancements of social protection delivery systems to expand and improve social assistance for those most in need and help consolidate the foundations of an adaptive social protection system to build the resilience of vulnerable households to a broad range of natural and man-made shocks. 50. The WB will support the government in emergency preparedness and response, reducing disaster risk, reconstructing basic infrastructure, and strengthening resilience in the transportation and urban sectors. The objective is to enhance resilience and preparedness in high climate risk areas by improving early warning systems, evacuation capacity, government response, disease surveillance (COVID-19 and cholera), all-weather road access, transportation infrastructure, and resilience at airports. The first two years of the CPF will also continue earthquake reconstruction efforts post-2021. Objective 3 aims to build on past technical and operational experiences from closed and ongoing tasks, including the post-earthquake assessment framework for reconstruction. Under this objective, the WBG will help Haiti address the challenges of chronic exposure to natural disasters and uncontrolled urbanization; develop resilient infrastructure, DRM capacity, and post-disaster reconstruction; and overcome food insecurity, hunger, and social unrest. This objective is designed to increase resilience to natural disasters and man-made shocks. 51. IFC will explore providing advisory services to support the private sector ensure climate-resilient development. This work could include strengthening resilience in the private sector through IFC’s Building Resilience Program and Excellence in Design for Greater Efficiencies green building certification, to help reduce energy and water use, as well as carbon intensive materials. 20 Only about one-third of women deliver their babies in health care facilities, and only about 40 percent of children under five are fully vaccinated. 21 Haitian cities rank among the least livable places: Port-au-Prince ranks as the fourth least livable city according to Mercer’s Quality of iving ranking (2018), above Sana’a (Yemen), Bangui (Central African Republic), and Baghdad (Iraq). 22 Heather Hartline-Grafton. FRAC Chat. Food Research and Action Center, Washington, DC. https://frac.org/blog/impact-food-insecurity-health-well- conversation-heather-hartline-grafton-dr-ph-r-d. 23 The social registry covers only 26 percent of Haitian households. 16 Private Sector Focus in the CPF 52. Supporting the private sector will be an essential part of the CPF. Wherever possible the WBG will help create an enabling business environment for the private sector in Haiti and facilitate investments that can drive economic growth, create jobs, and promote sustainable development. 53. IFC will have a special focus on inclusion, economic growth, productivity, and sustainability to support Haiti's private sector in job preservation, creation, and competitiveness. On inclusion, IFC activities will seek to provide access to finance to under-served segments such as MSMEs and women, improve digital transformation in financial institutions, and collaborate with the World Bank on improving financial inclusion (such as the past collaboration on regulatory reforms for leasing and the creation of an electronic collateral registry system in Haiti). IFC will also work on increasing the population’s access to key services (such as water) in collaboration with the World Bank Water and Sanitation Project. This work will be done under IFC PPP transaction advisory services to attract a private sector investor and operator to help improve operational and financial performance. Concerning economic growth/productivity, IFC will continue working on identifying bankable investment opportunities in a wide range of sectors, including private healthcare and agribusiness as highlighted in the WBG Country Private Sector Diagnostic for Haiti; on agribusiness, IFC expects to continue to work closely with the World Bank Emergency Resilient Agriculture for Food Security Project. IFC will also look at sectors that contribute to the competitiveness of companies, such as energy and ICT, in collaboration with the World Bank. On sustainability, activities that reduce the carbon footprint will be prioritized, such as renewable energy (in particular solar) and improving climate adaptation and resilience (for example, building on the experience of projects like the Resilience Building Program for the Caribbean (P605327) and the Climate Response and Resilience Facility (P607462). Gender will be a cross-cutting theme in all IFC activities wherever possible. 54. MIGA, through the suite of guarantees under the WBG Guarantee Platform, including political risk insurance guarantees, will seek opportunities to support private investment and lending with IDA PSW support. With no current projects or outstanding exposure in Haiti, MIGA will seek to extend political risk guarantees for viable foreign investment projects consistent with the CPF and with IDA PSW support, as well as other instruments under the WBG Guarantee platform to support the private sector. MIGA will also seek to apply its Gender Strategy Implementation Plan to prospective projects. To extend its business development efforts, MIGA will draw on its regional staff based in Panama. WBG Knowledge Services 55. The proposed CPF emphasizes ASAs in support of fragility-focused approaches and national dialogue on reform priorities. This will include deep analysis and understanding of fragility dynamics and the potential impact on WBG engagement (see Error! Reference source not found. 2) to inform the scope and content of sector- and project-level interventions within existing or stable operating environment scenarios, as well as advisory and technical inputs in the context of future reforms. The ASAs are expected to complement WBG’s technical and core analytical products. Table 2. Main World Bank Group Knowledge Services—Active and Pipeline Objective Current Advisory Services and Analytics Indicative pipeline 1. Strengthen economic governance and cre- ate job opportunities ▪ Haiti: Reinvigorating Growth in Uncertain Times (P502118) ▪ Firm Resilience to Fragility, Conflict, and Violence in Haiti—Private Sec- tor Jobs and Economic Transformation (P178666) ▪ State- and Peace-Building Funds: Promoting Gender-Based Violence Services for Women and Girls (P179731) ▪ Jobs After Covid Haiti (TF0B8620) ▪ Country economic memo- randum ▪ Poverty assessment ▪ Socioeconomic drivers of so- cial unrest and violence study 2. Maintain essential in- stitutional capacity to support basic service delivery ▪ Haiti: Strengthening Customs Administration (P180257) ▪ Haiti Government-to-Person (TF0B9225) ▪ Programmatic—Electricity Access and Sustainable, Resilient, and Inclu- sive Development of the Energy Sector (P177503/TF0B7244) ▪ Strengthening Primary Health Care and Surveillance in Haiti (P178755/TF0B0067) ▪ Public finance review ▪ Sectoral political economy analyses 17 Implementing the CPF Financing Envelope and Instruments 56. The proposed CPF lays out principles of engagement for FY2025-29 and proposes World Bank lending and advisory products for the initial three years. Lending for the outer years of the CPF period will be defined at the time of the PLR. The CPF will span the last year of the IDA20 cycle (FY2025) and the entire IDA21 cycle (FY2026- 28). The planned program of approximately US$320 million will use the IDA20 allocation of US$137.7 million, complemented by a regional reallocation of US$61 million, and the RECA of SDR20.3 million (~US$26.7 million). 24 57. Haiti will continue to receive its country allocation, including the RECA, on a grant basis in FY2025. These lending terms may change under IDA21 based on the results of IDA’s concessionality framework. 25 Haiti is subject to the Sustainable Development Finance Policy and will have access to its country allocation subject to satisfactory implementation of agreed-upon participatory poverty assessments. The WBG will also continue to leverage additional IDA resources where necessary and possible, such as from the Crisis Response Window and the IDA PSW in the case of IFC and MIGA (as mentioned above). MIGA will consider supporting private participation in such projects through WBG Guarantee Platform instruments. The indicative IDA lending program for FY2024–29 is presented in Error! Reference source not found. 3. Table 3. Haiti Indicative International Development Agency (IDA) Lending Program According to Fiscal Year 58. A trust fund portfolio of US$111.8 million will supplement the IDA envelope of about US$320 million, supporting projects and technical assistance and providing supplemental funding for ASA. Bank-executed trust funds account for 76 percent of the total, with recipient-executed trust funds accounting for the remaining 24 24 Referenced IDA volumes are indicative. Access to the RECA is subject to a satisfactory annual review. Actual RECA allocations will be determined annually and depend on total IDA resources available; number of IDA-eligible countries; the country’s performance rating, per capita gross national income, and population; implementation of IDA’s forthcoming Sustainable Development Finance Policy; and performance and other allocation parameters for other IDA borrowers. 25 In FY202 , Haiti’s lending eligibility changed from IDA-only to gap, which meant a change in the country’s lending terms from 100 percent grants to credits in blend terms, although the IDA20 mid-term review in December 2023 endorsed a moratorium on hardening of financing terms for all IDA countries, pending an upcoming review of IDA’s concessionally framework. 3. Preserve human capi- tal and strengthen natural disasters and man-made shocks ▪ Haiti—Consolidating Early Warning Systems, Reinforcing Preparedness and Response Capacity, Promoting Resilient Environments (TF0C2307) ▪ Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector Technical Assistance and An- alytics (P179368/TF0B9231) ▪ Haiti Climate Risk Assessment—COVID-19 Green Recovery Project De- sign and Implementation Support Grant (TF0B7842) ▪ Haiti Nature-Based and Non-Structural Coastal Flood Reduction Measures in Cap-Haïtien (TF0B5258) ▪ Country Climate and Devel- opment Report ▪ Disaster–fragility, conflict, vi- olence nexus analysis Project ID Project Name CPF Objective Instrument FY2025 (IDA20) FY26/27 (IDA21) US$ million equivalent P181584 Renewable Energy for All (approved) 1 AF 20 P180384 Strengthening Public Financial Management a 2 IPF 60 P504222 Resilient Productive Landscapes II 1 IPF 40 P504115 Resilient Corridors b 1 IPF 100 P174111 Adaptive Social Protection for Increased Resilience 3 IPF 20 P177072 Promoting a More Equitable, Sustainable and Safer Education 2 IPF 30 NEW Strengthening Climate Resilience c 3 IPF 50 Total 8 120 200 Notes: The IDA lending program is subject to available resources. Fiscal years (FYs) are plans, and actuals may shift. a. Successor to Projet d'Amélioration de la Gestion Financière et de l'Information Statistique (P157531). b. Successor to Rural Accessibility & Resilience (P163490). c. Successor to Strengthening Disaster Risk Management and Climate Resilience Project (P165870). 18 percent. The trust fund portfolio supports government programs in key sectors as rural development, health care, energy, education, environment, and urban resilience. 26 Seven trust funds support strategic ASA engagements in DRM, climate resilience, regional air transport connectivity, urban development, social protection, digital payments, and GBV prevention and response. They align with government development priorities and the government's development plan, supporting all three strategic objectives of the CPF. Eligibility for the additional FCV Envelope: Remaining Engaged in Conflict Allocation 59. Subject to confirmation of eligibility, World Bank Management intends to allocate RECA resources to Haiti in FY2025. The WBG’s program presented in this CPF is aligned with and calibrated for the RECA objectives of preserving institutional capacities and human capital (Annex 8). The additional resources will help expand the program to prevent further deterioration of socioeconomic conditions that could precipitate further expansion of violence to areas outside of Port-au-Prince. The RECA is timely to support the political transition process as well as efforts to operationalize the investment plan of the RCIA. The RECA also reaffirms the Bank’s commitment to Haiti as part of the broader ongoing international effort to resolve the current crisis. Should conditions allow for more substantial engagement on conflict prevention with the government, Management may access the Prevention and Resilience Allocation under IDA21 to advance the agenda on prevention and on the partnership dialogue with a milestone framework. 60. Haiti meets the RECA eligibility criteria for countries experiencing high levels of conflict or violence, as well as weak state capacity. Amid the significant brain-drain of the economy and public sector, Haiti’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment score fell to 2.2 in 2023, below the threshold of 2.5 for RECA eligibility. As discussed above, high levels of violence have increased the number of conflict-related fatalities that ACLED has recorded to 13.4 per 100,000 people—above the RECA threshold of 10 per 100,000 people. Lastly, the country program is consistent with the RECA’s selectivity criteria for funding development activities that preserve institutions and human capital. 61. While country risks are expected to remain high during the CPF period, the RECA constitutes an important investment by the Bank to prevent further destabilization. The risks of not expanding WBG engagement in support of measures to mitigate current risks of unrest and violence throughout the country are significant and could limit broader international efforts to resolve the current crisis at a critical time in Haiti’s history. At the same time, the annual review process of the RECA will ensure that decisions on the disbursements are based on the evolution of conditions and informed by a clear understanding of risks. To that effect, an interactive monitoring system for risk-informed management of the CPF program will be implemented. 62. Preserving institutions and human capital in Haiti will require measures to retain public sector staff, manage absenteeism, and navigate remote work arrangements in a low resource setting. Since 2021, staffing levels have declined in the Ministries of Justice and Public Security, Health and Population, and Economy and Finance. At the same time, insecurity has limited access to government offices, requiring many staff to work remotely. In this context, a flexible approach to design and implementation of operations is required, with close monitoring and adaptation. Leadership and change management will be supported through quick diagnostics, targeted training and coaching, with change management techniques designed for FCV contexts. 63. Amid the ongoing security crisis, the WBG will remain engaged in a comprehensive dialogue with the government on core policy issues. The close collaboration with the government during elaboration of the RCIA highlights the quality of the dialogue with key government institutions. Leveraging the dialogue and collaboration platforms of the RCIA, the CMU will engage with the government on policy and investment priorities during the transition period. Apart from the continuous dialogue stemming from the ongoing projects, the WBG also 26 The trust fund portfolio comprises mainly single-donor trust funds, with the Clean Technology Funds, Education for All Supervising Entity, Free Standing Trust Funds for Liquidity Coverage Ratio, Strategic Climate Funds, and Global Financing Facility as the largest donors, accounting for more than 90 percent of the portfolio, and the multi-donor trust funds accounting for less than 10 percent. 19 supports the government on ongoing critical tasks for the management of the RCIA, such as donor roundtables to seek resources and political support. Managing Program Implementation 64. CPF implementation will emphasize a flexible, adaptive operating model, territorial approach, and capacity improvements amid fragility. The World Bank's portfolio will be designed to continue deploying investments in areas with high poverty incidence and limited access to basic services, with a particular focus on areas at highest risk of social unrest and destabilization. It will continue prioritizing areas outside of Port-au-Price until the security situation in the capital improves. WBG strategic efforts aim to increase existing and build new capacity for procurement and address financial management, adapted to Haiti’s specific situation of fragility and violence. 65. Political uncertainty and violence are expected to characterize the CPF implementation period. Despite the increasing uncertainty and volatility, the WBG aims to continue effective operations and steady disbursements (see Annex 7). The WBG's operating model in Haiti has been continuously adjusted to respond to quickly changing circumstances, including the development of a comprehensive security plan and the adoption of a flexible hybrid model for staff deployment. The CPF will periodically review and consolidate the active portfolio, closing nonperforming operations and restructuring projects, with a focus on implementability, readiness and selectivity. Simplified project designs and strengthened partnerships, particularly with UN agencies, will continue to be applied for enhancing implementation capacity and addressing security and accessibility challenges (see Annex 9). 66. The World Bank portfolio is geographically aligned with the needs of the most vulnerable populations. The geographical distribution of the portfolio has been driven by such factors as access to drinking water, electricity, 4G coverage, food insecurity, travel times to markets, exposure to hazards, and violence (see Annex 7). Implementation will rely on the use of Geo-Enabled Monitoring and Supervision (GEMS) system for enhanced field monitoring and remote supervision, utilizing low-cost, open-source technology for real-time data collection and analysis. This approach will build government capacity and ensure transparency and accountability during the monitoring and evaluation processes. 67. Strengthening implementation capacity, particularly at the project implementation unit (PIU) level, will remain key for effective implementation of the CPF. This includes compliance with procurement policies, financial management, and environmental and safeguards frameworks (Annex 8). The PIUs in Haiti face daunting challenges – logistical, and mobility restrictions, and staff retention. The World Bank will be addressing these challenges by extending remote work incentives, enhancing PIUs as centers of excellence, and providing capacity-building. Haiti's public procurement system is grappling with security issues, political instability, and supply chain issues, leading to a shortage of qualified bidders and high costs. The World Bank will continue to provide project implementation support through training of the PIUs on contract management, e-procurement, and STEP, as well as knowledge sharing. 68. CPF implementation will support the mainstreaming of key corporate commitments – gender, global challenges and citizen engagement. Gender inequalities and vulnerabilities are particularly manifested during disaster recovery, and by the concentration of women in certain labor markets with limited access to healthcare. Climate change and biodiversity loss are reducing agricultural productivity, increasing food insecurity, and disproportionately impacting the poor and women. CPF implementation will continue to address the discrimination and barriers faced by women in employment, finance, and productive activities. The program will build resilience by promoting citizen engagement with civil society, private sector, academia, media, and other nongovernmental actors pursuing improvements in quality social services and local governance. IV. MANAGING RISKS TO THE CPF PROGRAM 69. As six of the nine CPF program risks are rated High, portfolio implementation and performance will be reviewed regularly and adjusted to ensure adaptive management of the CPF. The World Bank Country 20 Management Unit will lead this process at the portfolio and project levels. This approach will use risk analysis and real-time data on political, social, security, and other developments from the World Bank, third-party monitoring, and UN humanitarian assessments to inform management decisions and reformulate the program at the PLR stage. 70. The overall risk to achievement of the CPF program is High (Table 4), largely because of the high risk of protracted conflict and violence, which compounds other uncertainties. Political and governance residual risks are rated High. Political and governance risks are expected to remain high throughout the CPF period because ongoing political turmoil and uncertainty about new elections could protract the stabilization phase. The prolonged crisis has further weakened governance and limited opportunities for policy reform. Haiti’s chronic political instability and volatile security situation create bottlenecks and delays in project implementation. Because political risk will remain high after mitigation, the CPF adopts a risk-mitigation-by-design strategy based on the selection of projects in the country departments with lower security threats. Throughout CPF implementation, ongoing assessment of security risks will inform adaptations to the scope of the program and projects and the WBG response. 71. Macroeconomic and fiscal residual risks are rated High. Fiscal revenues will remain insufficient to finance investment programs and social spending needs, and vulnerability to external shocks is high. The fiscal deficit has increased significantly against a backdrop of low domestic revenue mobilization and shrinking overseas development assistance, putting pressure on the exchange rate and inflation. The fiscal position is at risk of deteriorating, potentially threatening the sustainability of publicly financed programs or subsidies. The risk of debt distress is still high and feeds into the heightened public debt risks linked to central bank financing, which could pose a sizable stability risk. Government efforts to implement performance and policy actions under the Sustainable Development Finance Policy and the ongoing SMP of the IMF will mitigate this risk. The WBG effort, in the absence of planned budget support, will moderate this risk through technical assistance and advisory activities designed to restore macro-fiscal stability and through the investment program under the three strategic objectives targeting the poor and most vulnerable. 72. Risks linked to sector strategies and policies are Substantial after mitigation. The CPF design aligns with the 2022 SCD, addressing Haiti’s economic and social challenges. Strengthening sectors such as agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and social protection requires reforms to improve regulatory and institutional frameworks, governance, and resilient community-driven planning, which can be formulated and implemented only when security conditions stabilize. To mitigate these risks, the geographic scope of the CPF targets the southern and other stable regions. 73. The technical design risk in Haiti’s program is high due to the complex solutions that Haiti’s development challenges require. WBG capacity to implement the new CPF depends on limited technical and institutional resources in Haiti. Some ministries have experience working with IDA, but others do not. The WBG will need significant capacity support to implement a critical safeguards and fiduciary requirements. To mitigate this risk, the World Bank will involve civil servants in project implementation and build sustainable capacity in ministries at all levels using performance-based approaches. This will ensure continuity and ownership in a context of frequent leadership changes and gaps. The World Bank will also use GEMS technology and increase interactions between PIUs and World Bank staff to build capacity at the provincial level. Table 4. Risks to the Haiti Country Partnership Framework Program Systematic Operations Risk Rating Tool Risk Categories Rating Political and governance High Macroeconomic High Sector strategies and policies Substantial Technical design of program Substantial Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability High Fiduciary High Environmental and social (E&S) High Stakeholders Substantial Other (high vulnerability to natural disasters) High Overall High 21 74. Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability residual risk is High. Limited institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability is a multiplier risk leading to chronic political instability and frequent turnover and emigration of civil servants. Poor technical and project management continue to hinder implementation of the program, although simplified project design and capacity building partially mitigate the risk. The World Bank will deploy efforts to strengthen implementation support (including the use of hands-on implementation support), in-country operations management supported by a team of local and international staff, establishment of a satellite office in Cap-Haïtien, targeted training, and enhanced communication. 75. Fiduciary risks are rated High, reflecting the challenging governance environment and the limited institutional capacity of the public sector. Governance and transparency remain a significant challenge in Haiti, limiting the efficiency of public spending. Fiduciary arrangements that are not fully compliant or enforced pose financial management and procurement risks to the portfolio. The World Bank plans to support multisectoral operations involving decentralized implementation, which may increase the fiduciary oversight burden and exposure to poor governance, although this approach is designed to enhance provincial authorities' ownership and accountability and provide closer fiduciary oversight to the provinces that the CPF program covers. 76. E&S risks are rated High. The risk of overall social deterioration is high, with significant concerns regarding gender-based violence (GBV). Given the country's high poverty rates, social risks are closely linked to factors perpetuating fragility, such as limited employment opportunities and under-investment in human capital. Under this CPF, the WBG will help mitigate these underlying causes of fragility and violence across all three objectives. A gender assessment of the WBG portfolio identifies priority interventions to address gender barriers and gaps. Among others, the WBG will pursue systemic identification and prevention of GBV and response to GBV risks in disasters through physical protection and legal and psychosocial support. Moreover, environmental degradation poses high risk in areas such as wastewater and waste management, water resource availability, and deforestation. If these threats materialize, they could exacerbate the impacts of natural and man-made disasters and heighten vulnerability to food insecurity and disease outbreaks. 77. Stakeholder risk is Substantial because of the fragile, volatile operational context and high-performance expectations for WBG interventions. Various actors scrutinize and criticize WBG operations, questioning their effectiveness and impact. The WBG also faces challenges in coordinating and communicating in an FCV setting with diverse, often-conflicting stakeholders. To mitigate this risk, the WBG will adopt a proactive external engagement approach; target key stakeholders from different sectors and levels; strengthen its relationships with civil society organizations, UN agencies, and community structures; and use citizen engagement to capture stakeholder and citizen voices during design and implementation of WBG interventions and to enhance transparency and accountability. 27 78. Haiti’s vulnerability to security risks, natural disasters, and climate shocks is High, undermining its development efforts, which increases the overall risk to program implementation. The CPF is likely to be implemented in a context of frequent shocks, disruptions, and other destabilizing events. Despite important mitigating factors, climate shocks pose a high risk to the WBG’s program. Extreme natural disasters and climate hazards reduce the resources (financial, knowledge, human) available for the remaining parts of the program. Extraordinarily high security risks will continue to constrain WBG operations in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, and mitigation measures will be integrated into project design, supervision, and implementation of the WBG investment portfolio, which is distributed in areas of the country with lower security risks. A risk-mitigation-by- design strategy will be adopted, based on continuous assessment of security risks that will be used to adjust the scope of project activities and supervision. Activities will be reprioritized, and emergency measures will be deployed based on security risk mapping at the commune level, based on reported violence intensity and degree of access for PIU staff, implementing partners, contractors, and nongovernmental organizations. A security 27 During RECA eligibility, the use of UN agencies is allowed under the following conditions: (i) by request from government to work with local agencies or WBG’s inability to directly work with government; (ii) demonstrated value added of IDA financing to ensure activities are additional and aligned with IDA’s mandate; (iii) demonstrated focus on rebuilding national or local systems; (iv) demonstrated attention to sustainability that includes an exit strategy along with a financing plan beyond IDA for recurrent costs. These criteria apply to each RECA financed operation and will be documented in the annual RECA review and/or within specific project documents. 22 specialist will be contracted as needed to assess and mitigate risks, and UN agencies will be relied upon to implement critical project activities. 23 Annex 1: Country Partnership Framework Results Matrix High-Level Outcome—Build the resilience of the poor This is a new high-level outcome High-level outcome indicators Data source Current value ▪ Percentage of people facing food and nutrition insecurity ▪ Decline in share of poor and extremely poor households WBG Score Card Poverty Assessment 82.6% (2021) 36.4% (2024) High-level outcome description: Poor people in Haiti are highly vulnerable because of endemic violence; lack of basic services; lack of functioning, accountable public institutions; and lack of human capital, compounded by natural and man-made shocks, all of which lead to social unrest and political instability, which in turn limits household income and consumption and stagnates agricultural productivity, increasing food insecurity. Interventions are needed to address drivers of fragility, improve governance, increase economic activity, enhance service delivery, improve social protection systems, and restore core governance functions. Continued investments in human capital, disaster relief management (DRM), and infrastructure are critical for communal resilience and protecting the poor. Building resilience for the poor by preserving their development gains will lay the foundation for inclusive growth and poverty reduction. Rationale for the CPF objective and WBG engagement: To escape the crisis–fragility trap, it is essential to strengthen economic governance, create employment opportunities, and build trust in public institutions. The primary focus of WBG engagement over the CPF period will be to preserve hard-won gains in key sectors, prevent further socioeconomic deterioration and destabilization, and protect people’s livelihoods by investing in the public sector, infrastructure, and physical capital; protecting human development; and strengthening disaster risk prevention and the small and medium-sized enterprise sector. Investments in basic service delivery and social protection programs will be essential to improve livelihoods in rural areas to protect the poor and vulnerable. Strengthening human capital is crucial for harnessing the potential demographic dividend, especially considering the large youth population. Under the single HLO, the WBG will pursue three objectives to support change and achieve results within the immediate to short term: strengthen economic governance and create job opportunities, maintain essential institutional capacity to support basic services delivery, and preserve human capital and increase resilience to natural disasters and man-made shocks. In the long term, the pay-off from investments in disaster prevention, livelihood improvement, food security, and basic connectivity infrastructure and housing is expected to support the overall efficiency and accountability of public institutions and improve government provision to increase the resilience of the poor. Lessons learned and new knowledge at program level: Fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) often stem from a broken social contract between citizens and the state, and restoring it is essential for escaping the crisis–fragility trap. Responsiveness to citizen needs and addressing deficits in public services are essential steps to escaping the trap. Limited human capital and inequality perpetuate grievances and violence. Local interventions are key to preserving and enhancing gains in human capital. In an environment of fragility and conflict, when facing volatility and uncertainty, it is crucial to remain flexible and adjust programs and strategies as conditions evolve. If a CPF program is adaptable, emerging reform opportunities can be seized. The WBG must expand its role beyond traditional lending and supervision to include dialogue facilitation and consensus building in addressing fragility and conflict. This requires a proactive approach to fostering collaboration among stakeholders to promote dialogue and build consensus. 24 Sustainable Development Goals SDG 1: No Poverty SDG 5: Gender Equality SDG 2: Zero Hunger SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being SDG 10: Reduced Inequality SDG 4: Quality Education SDG 16: Peace and Justice, Strong Institutions CPF Objective 1: Strengthen economic governance and create job opportunities This objective is broadly related to the 2015 CPF public sector management objective of “improving fiscal reporting and accountability.” Intervention logic Rationale for the CPF objective and WBG engagement: WBG engagement under this objective is designed to create job opportunities, enhance resilience, and prevent further destabilization and violence. Despite some progress in public financial management (PFM) and institutional reforms at the central and local levels, public institutions in Haiti remain weak and the use of public resources is untransparent. Haiti has a significant infrastructure deficit, with a large portion of the population lacking access to electricity, the internet, and all-weather roads. Inadequate infrastructure exacerbates underdevelopment and grievances from underserved basic needs. Climate change impacts, urban-rural disparities, violence and insecurity, and natural disasters strain infrastructure. Enhancing road, energy, and digital access is vital to creating economic opportunities, especially in rural areas. Haiti is experiencing severe humanitarian and food security crises, with a significant portion of its population living in severely food-insecure areas. Climate change is limiting agricultural productivity, and the country relies heavily on food imports, further reducing food security. Increasing agricultural productivity, access to credit and supporting temporary employment programs are crucial for increasing rural household food security and preventing social deprivation. The objective aligns with government priorities in strengthening core institutions (PFM, Customs, procurement, human resource management) at the central level; implementing decentralization reforms for equitable resource allocation, accountability, transparency, citizen engagement; and improving public resource management to regain public confidence. Key results sought under this objective concern governance, agriculture, economic development, transportation, energy, and digital resilience, aiming to support firms and households while prioritizing economic resilience for the poor, and will include: • Increasing government capacity by improving budget management and oversight • Strengthening governance by enhancing external control institutions • Increasing revenue mobilization from Customs operations • Boosting agricultural productivity by adopting resilience-enhancing agricultural practices in selected departments and sub-watersheds • Supporting micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises and value chain resilience and growth • Expanding energy access by increasing renewable energy investments • Increasing digital resilience and access to broadband services 25 Lessons learned and new knowledge at the program level: Addressing challenges in diverse sectors such as governance, agriculture, transportation, urban development, digital, and renewable energy is critical for increasing WBG effectiveness in a setting of FCV. Given the effects of acute food insecurity and climate change on agricultural productivity, it is essential to prioritize interventions to enhance agricultural resilience, increase access to nutritious food, and create employment opportunities in rural areas. Engaging communities and focusing on vulnerable groups, such as people with disabilities, through participatory programs helps create jobs while addressing social cohesion. Close collaboration within the WBG is a multiplier for effective development outcomes in a fragile setting. Ongoing and planned WBG support: The WBG focuses on increasing food security through projects such as the Haiti Resilient Productive Landscapes Project and the Emergency Resilient Agriculture for Food Security Project, which are designed to improve agricultural practices, increase climate-smart food production, create employment opportunities, and address food insecurity by supporting local agricultural and nutrition programs. The WBG plans to support Haiti's infrastructure development by supporting projects that increase urban and rural road connectivity, access to renewable energy, inclusive urban development, and digital connectivity and by financing public-private partnerships (PPPs). The International Finance Corporation (IFC) will seek to invest in and provide advisory services for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, horticulture supply chains, digital transformation of financial institutions, and PPPs in key infrastructure sectors, such as water. The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency intends to issue guarantees for the foreign private sector. These efforts are designed to support economic growth and create jobs. CPF Objective Indicators Supplemental Progress Indicators WBG Program Indicator 1.1. On-time submission to SAI of annual financial statements produced using integrated financial management information system (Yes/No) Baseline: No (2024) Target: Yes (2027) Source: SAI Indicator 1.2. Number of institutions that the Commission Nationale des Marchés Public had audited and for which the corresponding audit reports have been published Baseline: 10 (2024) Target: 25 (2027) Source: Commission Nationale des Marchés Public website Indicator 1.3. Tax-to-GDP ratio Baseline: 5.4 (2024) Target: 6.5 (2027) Source: Ministry of Finance Indicator 1.4. Number of farmers adopting improved agricultural technology (CRI, number of which female) SPI 1.1. Enabling policy and regulatory framework for clean energy and access enacted; target Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy score Baseline: 11 (2024) Target: 35 (2027) Source: World Bank Sustainable Energy for All Knowledge Hub (rise.esmap.org) SPI 1.2. Number of government agencies in which integrated financial management information system is deployed Baseline: 17 (2023) Target: 30 (2025) Source: Ministry of Ongoing Financing Private Sector Jobs and Economic Transformation (P173743) Resilient Productive Landscapes (P162908) Emergency Resilient Agriculture for Food Security (P177072) Promoting the Productive Inclusion of Persons with Disability (P179038) Improving Public Financial Management and Statistical Information Project (P157531) Rural Accessibility and Resilience (RARP, P163490) Caribbean Regional Air Transportation (P1070907) Resilient Connectivity and Urban Transport Accessibility (RUTAP, P177210) Decentralized Sustainable and Resilient Rural Water and Sanitation (P178188) Renewable Energy for All (P156719) Haiti Modern Energy Services for All (P154351) Cap-Haïtien Urban Development (P168951) Haiti Digital Acceleration Project (P171976) Financing Pipeline Resilient Productive Landscapes 2 (P504222) [... middle sections omitted for long document ...] 87 transport, mitigating growth constraints and poverty. In addition, the ongoing IFC project Solengy Renewable Energy Haiti (P49360) supports economic growth through the sustainable expansion of access to electricity to both public and private players, as it stimulates more resilient and green energy efficient infrastructure, generating a positive impact in terms of both access and cost. Objective Two focuses on preserving institutions, with the upcoming PFM project (P180384) addressing revenue and fiscal management issues to address corruption and macroeconomic instability. Objective Three addresses vulnerability to natural and man-made shocks, emphasizing the importance of improved disaster risk management systems to mitigate the adverse effects of frequent natural disasters. Global Challenges 21. A confluence of global and country challenges is exacerbating Haiti’s current fragility crisis, reinforcing its crisis-fragility cycle. Climate change and natural hazards, such as hurricanes and earthquakes, disproportionately affect poor and vulnerable populations. Haiti’s geographic location makes it vulnerable to climatic anomalies, with more than 93 percent of its surface area and 96 percent of its population at risk from hazards, including hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, landslides, and droughts. Changes in precipitation patterns, increased evaporation, groundwater over-extraction, sea level rise, and more-intense hurricanes will constrain agricultural productivity and worsen food insecurity. Natural disasters also increase health risks from spread of infectious diseases such as cholera and malaria. In 2017, the Maplecroft Index (Climate Change Vulnerability Index) included Haiti among the three most-vulnerable countries to climate change in the world. The 2010 earthquake destroyed the equivalent of 120 percent of its GDP, Hurricane Matthew in 2016 caused losses of 32 percent of GDP, and the 2021 earthquake – 11 percent. Climate change compounds policy and institutional weaknesses revealing the inadequacies in Haiti's DRM capacity. 22. Achieving Haiti’s 2030 targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions requires significant investment and international support. Agriculture, forestry, and land use account for more than 75 percent of emissions; the energy sector contributes to an additional 19 percent. The goal of Haiti's nationally determined contribution is a 31 percent reduction in emissions across the waste, electricity, agricultural, and forestry sectors, with an unconditional target of 6.3 percent and a conditional target of 25.5 percent compared with the business- as-usual scenario by 2030. 104 The country seeks to enhance resilience through adaptation measures in agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure, particularly by improving agricultural practices, increasing household energy efficiency, and using sugarcane bagasse for electricity generation, but achieving these targets will require an estimated US$22.04 billion by 2030, along with international technical and financial support. 105 23. Haiti’s pandemic preparedness is insufficient for responses to large-scale health emergencies and will require improving health care infrastructure and disease surveillance. Poverty, food insecurity, and an inadequate social protection system further hinder timely outbreak response. Pandemic preparedness efforts are conducted ad hoc and are limited by the shortage of medical professionals and supplies. Haiti scores poorly on the Joint External Evaluation of Capacities for Implementing International Health Regulations. A large part of the population faces acute hunger, and underdeveloped social protection systems leave vulnerable populations without support during crises. Key government priorities for strengthening pandemic preparedness include enhancing disease surveillance; investing in renewable energy for health care facilities; and providing cash transfers, food assistance, and health care coverage. 24. Very low electrification rates severely constrain energy access in Haiti, which will have to rely on private sector investment in off-grid energy solutions. Only one-third of the population has electricity, and there are stark disparities in access between urban areas (78 percent) and rural areas (3 percent). The 104 Climate Watch (database) (accessed), https://www.climatewatchdata.org/countries/HTI?end_year=2021&start_year=1990. 105 Nationally Determined Contributions Registry (database), United Nations Climate Change (accessed ), https://unfccc.int/NDCREG. 88 country's on-grid generation capacity has stagnated for over than a decade, resulting in high energy costs and reliance on informal self-generation. Average end-user tariffs in Haiti are among the highest in Latin America and the Caribbean, resulting in per capita electricity consumption of just 38.9 kilowatt-hours. To address this energy deficit, Haiti is focusing on expanding renewable energy solutions, including biomass, solar photovoltaic, wind, and hydropower generation. This requires the promotion of private investment in off-grid renewable energy solutions and renewable energy for health care institutions and water systems to enhance resilience. 25. Haiti is facing an unprecedented food and nutrition crisis, with high levels of acute hunger. The September 2024 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification indicates that 50 percent of population, 5.4 million people, experiencing acute food insecurity, an increase of more than 600,000 people since August 2023 and more than 850,000 since President Moïse assassination in July 2021. 106 The increase in the population’s food and nutrition insecurity has risen by more than 30 percent over the past four years. More than two-thirds are concentrated in the poor and very poor neighborhoods of Cité Soleil and Port-au-Prince. Furthermore, 22 percent of children under five are stunted, and 3.7 percent are wasted, with almost one-third of children stunted in the Centre Department. 107 Many households report insufficient food access due to disrupted supply chains and limited resources. 108 The loss of territorial control to gangs has further weakened the state's ability to provide basic social services, making it difficult to access food and other necessities. 26. Limited infrastructure, high costs, and inefficient service delivery constrain water security and access in Haiti. In 20222, only 55 percent of the population had regular access to potable water. Access in urban areas is 68 percent, and only 48 percent of the rural population can obtain safe drinking water. About 38 percent of the population had basic sanitation services in 2022. 109 Water infrastructure is inadequate, with services in Port-au-Prince limited to a few hours per week. Natural disasters, as well as the cholera outbreak after the 2010 earthquake, have intensified the water shortage. Gang violence hinders the state's ability to provide effective water and sanitation services. Sector reform has empowered local authorities to manage water and sanitation services, but limited financial resources and capacity remain significant constraints. 27. Haiti’s significant digital connectivity gap stems from very low mobile penetration rates. With only 63 percent penetration for mobile and 1 percent for fixed internet, the backbone infrastructure is concentrated in Port-au-Prince, resulting in low competition, high prices, and limited internet and mobile services quality. The cost of a fixed broadband connection is 155 percent of GDP per capita, making it unaffordable for most Haitians. Poor infrastructure and lack of fuel hinder the maintenance of digital infrastructure in rural areas. Additionally, violence and insecurity impede efforts to maintain or expand internet services in rural communities. Comprehensive reforms and investment are required to bridge this digital divide, including addressing the digital gender gap. 28. Protecting biodiversity and nature can help reduce rural poverty; safeguarding ecosystems allows for diversification and additional sources of income for poor households. Haiti faces threats to biodiversity and ecosystem preservation due to environmental degradation, deforestation, soil erosion, and inadequate conservation efforts. With less than 3% of its areas protected, Haiti ranks 150th out of 180 nations. Socioeconomic pressures such as poverty and unsustainable agricultural practices contribute to biodiversity loss. Investing in the poorest farmers' resilience through climate change-resistant farming practices can break the vicious cycle and mitigate food security and coastal management risks. Haiti's National Adaptation Plan aims to strengthen policies, enhance protected areas, and promote sustainable practices. 106 Haiti IPC Acute Food Insecurity Snapshot, September 2023 (ipcinfo.org). 107 Haiti Demographic and Health Survey 2016-17. 108 It is estimated that 30 to 40 percent of perishable goods (mango, avocados) are lost because of lack of access to markets. https://2012- 2017.usaid.gov/news-information/frontlines/haitiwomen-development/mangoes-and-tees-next-phase-haitian-recovery. 109 World Bank Group Scorecard (database), World Bank, Washington, DC (accessed ) https://scorecard.worldbank.org/en/data?orgCode=ALL&refareatype=COUNTRY&refareacode=HT&age=_T&disability=_T&sex=_T 89 Annex 7. CPF Implementation Model Flexibility and Adaptability 1. Given the interim government’s limited mandate, the CPF program implementation will continue to face political uncertainty, delayed decision making, dry-off of private investment, and slow-downs in implementing externally financed development programs. Despite the challenging context, the WBG has proven capable of operating effectively and delivering results, as illustrated by an FY2024 disbursement ratio of 20 percent, amounting to a record US$181 million (Figure 1). 2. The WBG operating model adopted in Haiti has been constantly adjusted to respond to changing circumstances. Since 2022, the security situation has become increasingly volatile, constraining the field presence of WBG staff. 110 In 2023, a comprehensive security plan was developed including a flexible hybrid model with Haitian core staff, adjusting the internationally recruited staff's footprint to business requirements and focusing on staff security and health, particularly local staff facing higher security risks. 3. The CPF is designed to consolidate the active portfolio. Although net World Bank commitment increased by almost 40 percent after the 2021 earthquake, the number of projects has been reduced by closing nonperforming operations and restructuring the portfolio (see Figure 2). 111 Under the proposed CPF, the World Bank will continue to emphasize readiness and selectivity filters at entry and apply strict discipline to the management of closing dates of projects. 112 Considering the immense need and limited country allocation, the CPF will apply four project readiness filters to projects entering the pipeline,. These filters include demonstrated sector performance; overall project performance, WBG technical staff availability in Port-au- Prince, effectiveness, disbursement, and implementation readiness. 110 In the last months of 2022, gang violence plunged Port-au-Prince into lawlessness and a humanitarian crisis, leading to the preventive emergency evacuation of all WBG staff from October 14, 2022, to January 12, 2023. Closing of the World Bank office resulted in a stark decline in disbursements in 2023. 111 From 2020 to 2022, nearly half the portfolio was restructured to channel undisbursed balances to new activities, and turn around problem projects. 112 The Haiti country portfolio performance review in October 2024 emphasized the need for accelerated implementation and disbursement of projects, potentially leading to portfolio restructuring and reallocation of funds, which will consider government priorities and recommendations from the RCIA. Figure 1: Haiti Portfolio: Disbursement Evolution, Fiscal Year (FY)2014−24 Figure 2: Haiti Portfolio: Net Commitment and Number of Projects (F16-26) 90 4. As the implementation lessons indicate, 113 the proposed CPF-led program will continue to pursue fewer and more expensive projects with simple project designs, streamlined implementation arrangements, and strengthened partnerships. Simplified project designs and a consolidated portfolio will allow for greater focus on strategic engagements, freeing up capacity to address implementation challenges with intense supervision support. Better project implementation will rely on tailored capacity-building technical assistance activities embedded in projects and targeted fiduciary and safeguard training for implementing entities. The WBG will continue to seek technical and financial cooperation from key development partners, enabling the WBG to manage security risks and accessibility challenges and leverage the comparative advantage of the respective organizations. Six UN agencies implement World Bank projects for a total of US$152 million in open and closed contracts (United Nations Office for Project Services; World Food Program; International Organization for Migration; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization; United Nations Children’s Fund; Pan American Health Organization; United Nations Population Fund). The WBG partners with UN agencies because of their well-established in-country systems and operational and logistics capacities, which can deliver emergency interventions in difficult-to-access areas. Expanding the Territorial Approach 5. The World Bank's portfolio is aligned to the needs of the most vulnerable populations. An analysis conducted to analyze the territorial distribution of the World Bank’s portfolio (Table 1) compared the distribution of the portfolio at the department level with poverty estimates and a geographic deprivation index constructed for this purpose tracking data on access to drinking water, electricity, 4G coverage, food insecurity, travel times to markets, exposure to hazards, and violence. The analysis confirmed that the World Bank portfolio aligns well with the needs of the most income- vulnerable and deprived populations. It also confirmed the concentration of World Bank–funded activities in the most vulnerable (southern) departments of the country, which are receiving 53 percent of regional investments (mainly as a result of post-2021 earthquake reconstruction efforts) and sustained concentration of the Bank’s investments in the North, in particular in Cap-Haïtien, the second largest city in Haiti, which receives 29 percent of total regional investments (Pan American Health Organization; United Nations Population Fund). The WBG partners with UN agencies because of their well- established in-country systems and operational and logistics capacities, which can deliver emergency interventions in difficult-to-access areas. 6. The territorial approach will rely on continued and expanded use of the Geo-Enabled Monitoring and Supervision (GEMS) system to enhance project-specific field monitoring and remote portfolio supervision across the portfolio. The capacity of the government, development partners, and World Bank will be built to leverage field-appropriate, low-cost, open-source GEMS technology for digital real-time data collection and analysis for monitoring and evaluation with transparency and accountability. 113 See section Lessons from CPF Completion Report. Table 1. Geographic Distribution of World Bank Financing Region US$ million % Northern 336.50 28 North 154.12 Northeast 149.26 Northwest 33.12 Central 127.67 10 Artibonite 46.01 Central 81.66 Western 105.12 9 West / Port-au-Prince 105.12 Southern 651.22 53 Grand'Anse 212.01 Nippes 149.25 South 203.60 Southeast 86.36 Total 1,220.51 100 91 Increasing Implementation Capacity 7. The effective implementation of the CPF requires strengthening implementation capacity, especially at the project implementation unit (PIU) level. The CPF will ensure the portfolio’s compliance with procurement policies and regulations and requirements for sound financial management reporting and internal and external controls, as with the Environmental and Safeguards Framework. 8. Fragility greatly affects PIUs’ performance. Due to outmigration, PIUs face logistics, mobility, security, and staff retention challenges. Since COVID-19, remote work has been implemented using project-financed equipment. During the new CPF period, the World Bank will continue such incentives and strengthen PIUs as centers of excellence. The Unité Centrale d’Exécution manages six World Bank–financed projects in the Ministry of Public Works, and the Unité de Gestion de Projets in the Ministry of Agriculture manages two World Bank–financed projects, as well as other projects funded by the IDB and International Fund for Agricultural Development, which ensures multiyear financing predictability and maintenance of a critical mass of qualified staff. 9. Haiti’s public procurement system is facing difficulties due to a lack of security, political instability, and supply chain challenges, resulting in few qualified bidders and high costs. Shortages of skilled procurement personnel compound the challenge. 114 The World Bank is working to increase procurement efficiency and mitigate risks by adopting of electronic procurement and capacity building. Ten projects, accounting for 61 percent of the portfolio, are adopting electronic procurement. A simplified digital application for procurement at the sub-grant level (Solucao Online de Licitacao) is available for community-level development of project subcomponents. The Haiti Strengthening Public Financial Management Project (P180384) supports government-wide adoption of electronic procurement, and the Improving Public Financial Management and Statistical Information Project (P157531) provides formal procurement training for government officials. The World Bank will continue to support project implementation through expanded hands-on implementation support; training of PIUs on contract management, e- procurement, and Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP); and knowledge sharing. 10. Haiti’s financial management status 115 indicates weaknesses in internal controls, delays in submission of financial and audit reports, and a high likelihood of advances not being fully documented by project close. The increasing difficulty in attracting and retaining qualified financial management staff exacerbates these weaknesses. In addition, the portfolio is subject to fraud, corruption, and delays in post- effectiveness implementation. To address these risks, the CPF implementation is designed to strengthen the country’s PFM systems, increase the capacity of PIUs, and continue vigilant World Bank implementation support (including through third parties), using technology where appropriate. This is being done on an ongoing basis through capacity-building initiatives for project teams, covering areas such as fiduciary assurance, cybersecurity, and fraud and corruption. The World Bank continues to rely on UN agencies when they have comparative advantages for project implementation and supervision. Reliance on country systems for internal audits is being considered based on gains achieved under the World Bank–financed Improving Public Financial Management and Statistical Information Project (P157531). 11. The World Bank is addressing environmental and social (E&S) risks in its operational portfolio, including the insufficient focus on wastewater management, water resource management, reforestation, occupational health, community safety, and GBV. CPF implementation is designed to enhance capacity, field supervision, and third-party monitoring to reduce costs and increase efficiency. These measures will target glowering costs, increasing efficiency in monitoring, and avoiding local consultation fatigue. Workshops and knowledge-exchange events on key E&S risk management topics will help foster collaboration among PIUs to share solutions and improve reporting). Beyond the scope of individual PIUs, broader E&S challenges require government attention, which weakens regulatory enforcement and is linked to a chronic lack of necessary resource limits. The World Bank Gap Analysis (2021) assessed Haiti's E&S national frameworks and recommended enhancements to strengthen them, and the proposed legal and regulatory reforms can be addressed after the country moves to a stabilization phase. 114 More than 94 percent of projects have substantial or high procurement risk ratings. 115 As of November 30, 2023, 89 percent of the portfolio projects (16 of 18) had a substantial financial management risk rating. 92 Annex 8. RECA: Preserving Institutions and Human Capital 1. The preservation of interlinked institutions related to government capacities, human capital, and dis- aster management is essential for effective governance, sustaining economic activity, providing basic ser- vices, and boosting societal resilience. Key institutions in this nexus include those involved in local governance, statistical data collection, transportation and utilities, health surveillance, access to finance for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), public health, education, and social protection. Strengthening these institutions enhances policy implementation, improves governance, stimulates growth and job creation, and ensures the delivery of vital services. Institutions such as the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the Ministry of Planning and External Cooperation play pivotal roles in economic governance and aligning interna- tional aid with national priorities. The Ministry of Public Works, Transport, and Communications is crucial for maintaining infrastructure, while the General Directorate of Civil Protection (GDPC) and the National Disaster Risk Management System (SNGRD) coordinate disaster responses and integrate risk reduction into national planning. In the social sectors, the Ministries of National Education and Public Health focus on enhancing edu- cation and healthcare systems, while the Ministry of Social Affairs and Labor oversees social protection pro- grams for vulnerable populations. Effective collaboration among these institutions, supported by international partners like the United Nations and World Bank, is necessary to enhance resilience, ensure equitable access to services, and promote economic growth, ultimately fostering a stable and prosperous society. Calibration of the World Bank Portfolio 2. The calibration and consolidation of the Haiti Portfolio 116 involved a comprehensive review by the Manage- ment and the project task teams together with Haiti’s Project Implementation Units (PIUs) (See Box 1). The cali- bration exercise included information and data collec- tion based on document reviews, and in-country con- sultations with the Bank and government staff in May 2022. Virtual interviews were held between May 2022 and February 2023. The review aimed to balance future adjustments to the portfolio be- tween resilience and transformation priorities, en- suring the highest impact from the allocation of scarce resources, introducing more flexibility during imple- mentation, and seeking more complementarity with development partners. The recalibration elevated the importance of using geographic data to boost the effectiveness of Haiti’s response to recurring natural disasters. The calibration adopted project restructuring as a critical approach for generating better results and more impact on the delivery of the country program, allowing for more flexibility and adaptation when addressing procurement chal- lenges during a crisis. 3. The calibration of the Haiti Portfolio aimed to strengthen the focus on resilience and protect the develop- ment gains of the poor through various approaches. First, the Bank emphasized the importance of preserving 116 The recalibration of the WBG portfolio in Haiti dates from the 2018 PLR and is also informed by the 2022 SCD and 2023 RRA Updates. Box 1. Recalibration of the WBG Program in Haiti in a Deteriorating FCV Context The FY16-21 CPF, initial focus was on long-term development and growth. However, it was adjusted to address climate change and (FCV)-related shocks in Haiti, starting with Hurricane Mathew in 2016 and a deepening political crisis in 2017. The Bank shifted its focus to resilience-focused programming, increasing natural disaster prepared- ness and climate adaptation. It used project CERCs and additional fi- nancing from the IDA CRW to respond to natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic. Projects in human capital, infrastructure, urban development, and agricultural productivity were adjusted to strengthen resilience and mitigate the impact of natural disaster shocks. The Bank also emphasized integrated territorial approaches outside Port-au- Prince, focusing on rural areas and minimizing risks while responding to the needs of the most affected populations. In addition, the Bank has implemented important operational adaptations and innovations, in- cluding considerable investment in hands on procurement support (through Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support, HEIS), as well as implementation of urgent projects through United Nations (UN) sys- tem entities, which have allowed it to deliver results in an increasingly challenging FCV environment. Source: Risk and Resilience Update, 2024 93 human capital by supporting school enrollment and the resilience of school feeding programs. It also explored Tech- nical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) programs to improve living standards and reduce gang recruit- ment. In the health sector, the Bank sought to maintain gains in access to quality education, adapt models to the fragile context, and ensure adequate resources for strengthening the education system and its management. Sec- ond, the Bank is scaling up social protection programs to enhance resilience against shocks and address the socio- economic drivers of instability and fragility (see Table 1 in Annex 6). This calibration includes implementing decen- tralized solutions for basic service delivery, strengthening community engagement in renewable energy projects, and continuously assessing the trade-offs between short-term access and long-term affordability. Third, the Bank focused on building institutional capacity at the departmental and municipal levels, supporting cross-level coordi- nation, and developing a systematic approach to resilience. This approach includes a portfolio-wide strategy and framework for defining resilience-related priorities and indicators. This comprehensive strategy creates a well- rounded definition and measurement of vulnerability, considering natural, economic, and security-related risks to inform project targeting and monitoring through geospatial and interactive virtual platforms. 4. The Country Portfolio Performance Reviews (CPPR) 117 supported strengthening the intervention focus on resilience and violence prevention through several key strategies. The CPPRs acknowledged the centrality for effective implementation of strengthening the accountability, transparency, and inclusiveness of govern- ance at all levels, facilitating the emergence of a new social contract, and mitigating economic capture by pro- moting more inclusive economic and private sector development. The portfolio reviews also highlighted the need to leverage Bank expertise and instruments to tackle the social and economic roots of violence, especially gang violence. The CPPR agreed with the Government on a periodical re-examination of the geographic focus of Bank interventions to ensure they target the populations most affected by fragility and conflict, including metropolitan Port-au-Prince. 5. The CPPRs underscored the importance of retaining the flexibility to pivot the program toward a stabi- lization phase when reform opportunities emerge. The CPPRs informed the need for the Bank to focus on human capital development by preserving gains through targeted local-level interventions and strengthening sectoral ca- pacity where possible. This includes investments in local-level service improvements and systems-level strengthen- ing in education and health, as well as expanding access to electricity and clean water through decentralized ap- proaches. Improving the effectiveness of the World Bank portfolio is seen through stronger social protection lens for boosting the resilience to shocks for the most vulnerable and mitigating the socio-economic drivers of violence and instability. Despite the current phase of increasing fragility and deterioration, the World Bank needs to continue its efforts in identifying opportunities to establish foundations for structural and transformational reforms, providing valuable inputs to national dialogue processes and the development of reform blueprints. 6. During the FY2025-FY2029 CPF period, the active operations in the portfolio will continue to be reoriented or adjusted further to better address the risk from further deterioration of vital sectoral institutions and avert further erosion of human capital in line with the RECA priorities, the RCIA, the 2022 SCD, the CLR and the 2023 RRA Update (Table 1 below). The selectivity of the project pipeline will continue to align with RECA priorities (Table 2 below). 117 The last two CPPRs took place in 2022 and 2024. 94 Table 1: Alignment of the WBG portfolio with RECA priorities Project ID Project Name Appr Date Revised Closing Preserving Institutions Preservation of Human Capital P154351 Modern Energy Ser- vices For All (CTF) 25-Oct- 2017 30-Apr- 2028 The project supports the develop- ment of off-grid renewable energy systems, enhancing the institutional capacity for energy management and policy implementation It provides reliable electricity to healthcare facilities, improving health services and supporting edu- cation through better infrastructure P155201 Municipal Develop- ment and Urban Resili- ence (MDUR) 20-Jun- 2017 31-Mar- 2025 Enhances the capacity of municipali- ties to plan, finance, and deliver basic services, thereby strengthening local governance Reduces urban flooding and im- proves infrastructure, which directly benefits public health and safety P156719 Renewable Energy for All (SREP) 25-Oct- 2017 31-Dec- 2024 Supports the development of a regu- latory environment for private sector- driven renewable energy invest- ments, strengthening institutional frameworks Expands access to clean energy for households and healthcare facilities, improving health outcomes and edu- cational environments P157531 Statistical Capacity Building (PAGEFIS) 24-Mar- 2017 31-Dec- 2024 Enhances the capacity of national in- stitutions to collect and manage sta- tistical data, improving governance and policymaking Provides data critical for planning and improving health, education, and social protection services P163490 Rural Accessibility & Resilience (PARR) 31-May- 2018 30-May- 2025 Improves the resilience of the road network, enhancing institutional ca- pacity for infrastructure management Increases all-weather road access, facilitating better access to health, education, and social services P165870 Strengthening DRM and Climate Resilience (PGRAC) 16-May- 2019 30-Apr- 2025 Improves early warning and emer- gency evacuation capacity, enhancing institutional disaster management ca- pabilities Provides safe havens and improves emergency response, protecting hu- man lives and health during disasters P167512 Strengthening Primary Health Care and Sur- veillance in Haiti (PROSYS) 16-May- 2019 31-Dec- 2026 Strengthens the health surveillance system, enhancing institutional ca- pacity for disease control and preven- tion Increases utilization of primary health care services, improving over- all health outcomes P168951 Cap Haitien Urban De- velopment (CHUD) 06-Mar- 2020 31-Mar- 2027 Enhances urban infrastructure and public spaces, improving local govern- ance and institutional capacity Improves living conditions and public health through better urban plan- ning and infrastructure P170907 Caribbean Regional Air Transport Connectivity Project - Haiti (CATCOP) 28-May- 2020 30-Jun- 2026 Strengthens the aviation sector's in- stitutional capacity through improved infrastructure and safety standards Enhances connectivity, facilitating better access to health and educa- tion services in case of emergency P171976 Digital Acceleration (HDAP) 09-Oct- 2020 15-Oct- 2026 Develops digital infrastructure and services, enhancing institutional ca- pacity for digital governance Improves access to digital services, supporting education and health through better information and communication technology P173743 Private Sector Jobs and Economic Transfor- mation (PSJET) 28-Sep- 2021 31-May- 2027 Enhances institutional capacity by im- proving access to finance for MSMEs and supporting value chains Supports job creation and economic growth, which indirectly benefits health and education through in- creased household incomes P173811 COVID-19 (COVID) 02-Apr- 2020 30-Nov- 2025 Strengthens public health institutions by enhancing their capacity to re- spond to health emergencies Improves health outcomes by in- creasing vaccination rates and providing essential health services P174111 Adaptive Social Protec- tion for Increased Re- silience (PSARA) 09-Mar- 2021 30-Jun- 2027 Builds institutional capacity for social protection by developing adaptive so- cial safety nets Enhances resilience of vulnerable households through cash transfers and support during shocks 95 P174707 Promoting a more Eq- uitable, Sustainable and Safer Education (PROMESSE) 25-Jun- 2021 30-Jun- 2026 Strengthens the education system by improving infrastructure and ensuring safer learning environments Boosts educational outcomes by providing equitable access to quality education P177072 Emergency Resilient Agriculture for Food Security (PARSA) 17-Mar- 2022 26-Feb- 2027 Supports agricultural institutions by improving food security and resili- ence through infrastructure and tech- nical support Increases food security and nutrition for vulnerable populations, thus im- proving overall health of the poor P177210 Resilient connectivity and Urban Transport Accessibility (RUTAP) 26-May- 2022 31-May- 2028 Enhances institutional capacity for transport infrastructure management and resilience Improves access to economic oppor- tunities and essential services, bene- fiting health and education P178188 Decentralized Sustain- able and Resilient Ru- ral Water and Sanita- tion (EPPARD) 17-May- 2023 29-Jun- 2029 Strengthens local institutions by im- proving water and sanitation infra- structure and management Enhances public health by providing access to clean water and improved sanitation Table 2: The World Bank pipeline and alignment with RECA priorities Project ID Project Name Fiscal Year Preserving Institutions Preservation of Human Capital P170907 Caribbean Regional Air Transport Connectivity Pro- ject - Haiti (CATCOP), AF 2024 Enhances the institutional capacity of Haiti's air transport sector by improving infrastructure and operational efficiency. Improves access to health and ed- ucation services by enhancing air connectivity, facilitating the movement of people and goods in case of natural disasters. P181584 Renewable Energy for All (SREP), AF 2025 Strengthens institutional frameworks for renewable energy investments, promot- ing sustainable energy policies. Expands access to electricity for households, businesses, and com- munity services, improving health and education outcomes. P180384 Strengthening Public Finan- cial Management 2025 Enhances government capacity and transparency in public revenue mobiliza- tion and financial management. Improves the efficiency of public service delivery, indirectly bene- fiting health, education, and social protection sectors. P504222 Resilient Productive Land- scapes II 2025 Fortifies natural resource management institutions to better handle environ- mental challenges. Supports sustainable agricultural practices, improving food security and livelihoods, which are crucial for health and education. P504115 Resilient Corridors 2026 Develops resilient infrastructure and in- stitutional capacity to manage transport corridors. Ensures reliable access to essential services, including health and edu- cation, by maintaining critical transport routes. P174111 Adaptive Social Protection for Increased Resilience 2026 Strengthens social protection systems to better respond to shocks and crises. Provides emergency cash trans- fers and social support to vulnera- ble populations, enhancing their resilience and access to health and education. P177072 Promoting a More Equitable, Sustainable and Safer Educa- tion 2026 Enhances institutional capacity for emer- gency agricultural response and food se- curity. Improves food security and nutri- tion, which are fundamental for health and educational perfor- mance. NEW Haiti Emergency Operation (Health Sector) 2026 Supports the Ministry of Health in main- taining core health functions and infra- structure. Directly improves health out- comes by addressing critical health sector needs and ensuring service delivery. NEW Strengthening Climate Resili- ence 2026 Develops protocols and systems for na- tional early warning and disaster re- sponse. Enhances resilience to climate im- pacts, protecting health and liveli- hoods through better prepared- ness and response. 96 Annex 9. List of Projects Implemented by UN Agencies (as of December 23, 2024) Project ID Project Name Bank Appr. Date Revised Clos. Date UN Agencies concerned Activities P155201 Municipal Development and Urban Resili- ence (MDUR) 20-Jun-2017 31-Mar-2025 UNOPS Action plan implementation and resettlement P156719 Renewable Energy for All (SREP) 25-Oct-2017 31-Dec-2024 UNOPS Supply of electrical systems P163490 Rural Accessibility & Resilience (PARR) 31-May-2018 30-May-2025 UNOPS Improving Resilience of Transport Connecting Infrastructure P165870 Strengthening DRM and Climate Resilience (PGRAC) 16-May-2019 30-Apr-2025 IOM Delivery of training for construction of shelters P167512 Strengthening Primary Health Care and Surveillance in Haiti (PROSYS) 16-May-2019 31-Dec-2026 UNOPS and UNICEF Renovation and resizing of two departmental input supply cen- ters (medicines) AND Intervention strategies to fight Cholera P173811 COVID-19 (COVID) 02-Apr-2020 30-Nov-2025 UNOPS Oxygen therapy P174111 Adaptive Social Protection for Increased Resilience (PSARA/ASPIRE) 09-Mar-2021 30-Jun-2027 WFP Updating and recording SIMAST Information System of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Labor, a data management tool linked to social protection activities and Cash transfers P174707 Promoting a more Equitable, Sustainable and Safer Education (PROMESSE) 25-Jun-2021 30-Jun-2026 UNOPS and UNICEF SAQ data collection 2023-2024 Implementation plan, repair and construction of semi-perma- nent shelters Transport of school materials AND Implementation of MENFP's non-formal education plan P177072 Emergency Resilient Agriculture for Food Security (PARSA) 17-Mar-2022 26-Feb-2027 WFP and UN- OPS Operator of school canteen programs and capacity-building ac- tivities AND Vehicle Acquisition and Operator - Participatory community work and technical assistance P178188 Decentralized Sustainable and Resilient Ru- ral Water and Sanitation (EPPARD) 17-May-2023 29-Jun-2029 UNOPS and UNICEF Contract to design, procure, construct/rehabilitate, and super- vise works of 21 piped water supply systems AND Contract to support DINEPA to respond to cholera emergency and pro- mote hygiene and basic sanitation Total 10