Ayiti, klima ak metyo mansyèl, avril 2026

FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Haiti Monthly Climate and Weather 21 May 2026 Highlights • According to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlooks, El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 202627 (96% chance in December 2026 – February 2027). • Haiti experienced widespread above-average rainfall in April 2026, with significant surpluses ranging from 100 mm to over 300 mm in across central and eastern regions specifically in the Centre, Sud-Est, and eastern Ouest departments, as well as northern Nord-Est. • Haiti observed near-normal maximum temperatures during last three months. The southern peninsula and parts of the Centre and Artibonite departments observed negative minimum temperature anomalies (cooler-than-average) with values ranging from 1°C to 2°C below the mean. • The SPI analysis for the past 3 months indicated that Haiti experienced exceptionally wet conditions across its entire territory. Widespread moisture surpluses with SPI values of 2 or more standard deviations above the mean were observed over the majority of the country, reflecting high rainfall totals. The SPI forecast ending on May 28, 2026, anticipates that wetterthan-average conditions (SPI values ranging from 0.5 to over 2 standard deviations above the mean) will continue in most of the country. • The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models indicate moderate probabilities (40–60%) for below-normal rainfall across the majority of the country during June 2026 and Jun – Aug 2026. • The NMME temperature forecasts for June and the June-August 2026 favor above-normal mean temperatures in the northern, western and southern Haiti. For the central and eastern departments, a low probability (36–40%) of below-normal temperatures is predicted for June, while no dominant category is indicated for the seasonal (June–August) period. The FEWS NET Monthly Climate and Weather information bulletin is based on current weather and climate information and monthly and seasonal outlooks from the NOAA CPC. Information on crops, soil moisture, flooding, and evapotranspiration data were produced by FEWS NET, USGS, NASA and USDA. Various sources were used to assess impacts of extreme conditions. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Dr. Wassila Thiaw, Deputy Director, CPC/NOAA, wassila.thiaw@noaa.gov. Questions about the DOS FEWS NET may be directed to Dr. Kiersten Johnson, Program Manager FEWS NET/DOS, johnsonkb2@state.gov. Haiti seasonal calendar. Source: FEWS NET Current Climate Modes and Teleconnections • • • ENSO-neutral conditions continued in early May 2026. Westerly wind anomalies were observed over the western equatorial Pacific at low levels, and were evident over the central and east-central Pacific at high levels. Convection was near average over the Date Line, with suppressed convection around Indonesia. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) increased for the sixth consecutive month, with widespread, significantly above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific. The ENSO outlooks indicates that El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in MayJuly 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026 – February 2027; Fig. 1). For the latest update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on ENSO, check here. During April 2026, Equatorial Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-aboveaverage in the east-central Pacific Ocean and SSTs were warmer than average across the Gulf of America, the Caribbean, and the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The largest anomalies ranged from 1.5°C to more than 2.5°C in most of the western and northern Gulf of America and in portions of the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The Caribbean Sea observed positive anomalies ranging from 0.5 to 1.5°C. Figure 1. Official ENSO probabilities for the Niño 3.4 SST index (5oN−5oS, 120oW−170oW). Figure updated 14 May 2026. Source: NOAA/CPC • Implications of ENSO conditions: Based on historical records, above average precipitation conditions are likely for May to July (MJJ) season in most of Haiti (Fig. A1, left panels), while historical teleconnections indicate warmer than average mean temperatures in 2 Center and Nord-Est departments of Haiti (Fig. A1, right panels). The ENSO-precipitation teleconnection pattern can be found here, and the pattern for temperature can be found here. Extreme Events • • • • • Haiti experienced persistent substantial rainfall between April 11 and 14, 2026, that triggered severe flooding and landslides across the North-West Department. The communes of Saint-Louis-du-Nord, Port-de-Paix, and Anse-à-Foleur were the most severely impacted. At least 12 deaths have been confirmed, primarily in the communal sections of SaintLouis-du-Nord. Several injuries were reported, including one critically injured individual who remains hospitalized. Over 1,000 homes were inundated, particularly in the structurally vulnerable area of Bas Voeux-Jour, forcing hundreds of families to relocate to safer areas. The Ti-Rivière bridge was completely destroyed, and the Bas Voeux-Jour bridge suffered significant deterioration. These damages, combined with impassable departmental roads, have severely restricted access for humanitarian response teams. The agriculture and livestock sectors reported substantial losses, as fields were inundated and livestock were swept away, threatening long-term food security in the region (e.g., OCHA, 20 April 2026, HaitiLibre, The Watchers News, AP News, Emirates News Agency). There have been no reports of fire activity in Haiti during April 2026. Rainfall/Precipitation • Climatologically, rainfall typically increases significantly in April compared to previous months, with totals ranging from 25 mm to 100 mm in central and eastern Haiti. Slightly lower values, between 10 mm and 25 mm, are climatologically expected in the northwestern regions of the country. Past 3 months (February – April 2026): • Totals: Over the last three months (February – April 2026), the largest amounts of total rainfall ranged from 500 mm to 750 mm in northern Nord, Nord-Est, southern Artibonite, southern Centre, most of Ouest, central Sud-Est, eastern Sud and eastern Nippes departments. Elsewhere, most of Haiti observed rainfall totals of 300 mm to 500 mm, with the exception of the Nord-Ouest, central and northwestern Artibonite, and northern Grand'Anse departments, which received lower amounts ranging from 150 mm to 300 mm (Fig. 2a). • Anomalies: Over the last three months, the majority of Haiti observed above-average rainfall conditions. The highest rainfall surplus, ranging from 300 mm to over 500 mm, was observed in Nord, Centre, southeastern Artibonite, Ouest, Sud-Est departments and most of the southern peninsula. Significant positive anomalies between 100 mm and 300 mm were also recorded across the western Nord-Ouest, most parts of Artibonite, western Grand'Anse and southern Sud departments. Gonâve Island registered comparatively modest surplus ranging from 50 mm to 100 mm (Fig. 2b). 3 (a) (b) (c) Figure 2. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for February – April 2026: (a) 3-month total accumulation and (b) 3-month anomaly. (c) NMME seasonal rainfall probabilistic forecast for June – August 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Past 1 Month (April 2026): (a) • Totals: During April 2026, the largest amounts of total rainfall ranged from 300 mm to 500 mm in northern and southeastern Haiti, particularly in the Nord, most of the Nord-Est, south Centre, southeastern Artibonite and eastern Ouest departments. Elsewhere, most of Haiti observed rainfall totals of 100 mm to 300 mm, characterized by moderate moisture across the southern peninsula and northeastern regions. In contrast, the Nord-Est, northwestern Grand'Anse departments and Gonâve Island received lower amounts of rainfall ranging from 25 mm to 100 mm (Fig. 3a). • Anomalies: Haiti experienced widespread above-average rainfall last month. Notably, the most significant rainfall surpluses, ranging from 100 mm to over 300 mm, were registered across central and eastern regions, specifically in the Centre, Sud-Est, and eastern Ouest departments, as well as northern Nord-Est. Positive anomalies between 50 mm and 100 mm were also recorded across local areas in the southern peninsula (Sud, Nippes, and Grand'Anse) and western Artibonite departments. The smaller rainfall surpluses ranging from 10 mm to 50 mm were noted in portions of the Nord-Ouest, western Grand'Anse departments and Gonâve Island (Fig. 3b). (b) (c) Figure 3. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for April 2026: (a) 1-month total accumulation and (b) 1-month anomaly. (c) NMME monthly rainfall probabilistic forecast for June 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP 4 Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (June 2026 and June – August 2026): • Monthly: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models indicate moderate probabilities (40–50%) for below-normal rainfall across the majority of the country, including the Nord-Ouest, Artibonite, Centre, and Ouest departments. Notably, a higher likelihood (50–60%) for below-normal conditions is predicted for the southern peninsula, specifically in the eastern Sud, Nippes, and western Sud-Est departments (Fig. 3c). • Seasonal: The seasonal NMME probabilistic forecast for the June–August 2026 period indicates a continuation of the drying trend across much of Haiti. Moderate to high probabilities (50–60%) for below-normal rainfall are predicted for the central and eastern regions, including the Artibonite, Centre, Ouest, and Sud-Est departments. Similar probabilities for below-normal conditions exist for the Grand'Anse and Nippes departments, with a more pronounced likelihood (exceeding 60%) for below-normal precipitation in the western and central Sud department. Lower probabilities (36–40%) for below-normal rainfall are indicated for the northern Nord and Nord-Est departments. For the Nord-Ouest department, no dominant category is predicted, indicating an equal likelihood for near-, above-, or below-normal precipitation during this seasonal period. (Fig. 2c). Temperature Past 3 months (February – April 2026): • • Maximums: Seasonal maximum temperatures across Haiti ranged from 25°C to 35°C (not shown). The country observed near-normal maximum temperatures during last three months (Fig. 4a). Minimums: Seasonal minimum temperatures across Haiti typically ranged from 15°C to 25°C, with cooler values observed in the central and southeastern highlands and warmer minimums along the northern and southern coasts (not shown). Regarding anomalies, negative anomalies (cooler-than-average conditions) were observed across most of the southern peninsula and portions of the Centre and Artibonite departments, with values ranging from 1°C to 2°C below the mean. The rest of the country experienced near-normal minimum temperatures during the period (Fig. 4b). 5 (b) (a) (c) Figure 4. Spatial structure of temperature for February – April 2026: (a) maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature for June – August 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Past 1 Month (April 2026): (a) • Maximums: Mean maximum temperatures across Haiti during April ranged from 25°C to 35°C (not shown). This country experienced near-normal maximum temperatures throughout the month of April (Fig. 5a). • Minimums: Mean minimum temperatures across Haiti during April typically ranged from 15°C to 25°C, with the lowest values concentrated in the central and southeastern highlands and higher minimums observed along the coastlines (not shown). In terms of anomalies, negative anomalies (cooler-than-average conditions) were observed across most of the southern and portions of the Centre and Artibonite departments, with values ranging from 1°C to 2°C below the mean. The rest of the country experienced near-normal minimum temperatures during the period (Fig. 5b). (b) (c) Figure 5. Spatial structure of temperature for April 2026: (a) maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature for June 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP 6 Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (June 2026 and June – August 2026): • Monthly: The NMME forecast for June indicates moderate to high probabilities (60–70%) for above-normal mean temperatures across the southern peninsula, including the Grand'Anse, Nippes, and Sud departments. Moderate probabilities (40–60%) for abovenormal conditions are also predicted for the northern Haiti, northwestern Peninsula, Gonâve Island, and the southeastern tip of the country. In contrast, low probabilities (36– 40%) for below-normal mean temperatures exist for the eastern and central regions, covering the southern Nord-Est, southern Nord, Centre, eastern Artibonite and Ouest departments (Fig. 5c). • Seasonal: The seasonal NMME probabilistic forecast for the June–August 2026 indicates that above-normal mean temperatures are favored across the western, northern, and southern regions of Haiti. High probabilities (60–70%) for above-normal conditions are predicted for the Grand'Anse, Sud, Nord-Ouest, western Artibonite, eastern Sud-Est, southeastern Ouest departments, as well as Gonâve Island. Moderate probabilities (50– 60%) for warmer-than-normal conditions extend into the Nippes, eastern Sud, southwestern Ouest, western Sud-Est, northern Nord and northern Nord-Est departments. For the central and eastern regions—including the Centre, and northern Ouest departments—no dominant category is predicted during this three-month period (Fig. 4c). Drought and Dryness The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to characterize meteorological drought. SPI compares the precipitation over a specific period of time with the climatology from that same period. Therefore, the SPI values can be thought of as the number of standard deviations the observed anomaly deviates from the climatology. The 1-month SPI values are a good representation of the monthly precipitation anomaly as well as the soil moisture and vegetation health. The 3-month SPI values are a good representation of seasonal precipitation anomalies. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is similar to the SPI, but it also takes evapotranspiration into account (and therefore the impact of temperatures on water demand). Past 3 Months (February – April 2026): • The SPI analysis for the past 3 months indicated that Haiti experienced exceptionally wet conditions across its entire territory. Widespread moisture surpluses with SPI values of 2 or more standard deviations above the mean were observed over the majority of the country, reflecting high rainfall totals. (Fig. 6a). Past 1 Month (April 2026): • The SPI analysis for the month of April indicates that Haiti experienced exceptionally wet conditions across nearly the entire country. The highest moisture surpluses, with SPI values of 2 or more standard deviations above the mean, were observed in the Nord, Nord-Est, Centre, Sud-Est, and portions of the Ouest and Sud departments. Slightly more 7 moderate, yet still significantly positive, moisture signals (SPI values of 0.8 to 1.6 standard deviations above the mean) were recorded in the Artibonite, Nord-Ouest, and Grand'Anse departments. Gonâve Island and localized areas of the southern peninsula registered positive SPI values ranging from 0.5 to 0.8 standard deviations above the mean (Fig. 6b). Current/Forecast (01 March 2026 – 28 May 2026): • The SPI forecast suggests that wetter-than-average conditions (SPI values ranging from 0.5 to 2 standard deviations above the mean) will continue in most of the country. Significant moisture surpluses, with SPI values reaching 2 or more standard deviations above the mean, are predicted for northern, central, and eastern Haiti, as well as the eastern portion of the southern peninsula (Fig. 6c). (b) (a) (c) Figure 6: Spatial structure of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for (a) February– April 2026, (b) April 2026, and (c) Spatial structure of SPI constructed from observations for 01 March to 28 April 2026 and 4 weeks forecast ending on 28 May 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) • USGS/EROS crop WRSI: The last product available for the 3rd Dekad of December 2025 indicates ‘Average’ to ‘Very Good’ crop conditions in Haiti. GEOGLAM Crop Monitor • According to the April 2026 GEOGLAM Global Crop Monitor report, rice and maize crops are developing under favorable conditions throughout Haiti. This positive outlook is primarily driven by the timely and robust onset of the spring rainy season, which has provided ample soil moisture for early crop development across the major production zones. Additional Resources - https://protectioncivile.gouv.ht/ - https://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/ 8 Annex Figure A1. ENSO teleconnection for the May – July (MJJ) season. The upper-level panel shows the precipitation and temperature anomalies regressed onto the standardized Niño-3.4 index. The bottom panel shows the correlation between Nino-3.4 and the anomalies. Source : https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/regressions/ 9