Haïti, climat et météo mensuels, mars 2026

FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Haiti Monthly Climate and Weather 16 April 2026 Highlights • During the past month, ENSO-neutral conditions emerged, as indicated by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to the NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026. • March climatological rainfall ranges from 10 mm to 25 mm in northern, southwestern and far southeastern Haiti, while slightly higher values from 25 mm to 50 mm are seen in central and central-southern regions of Haiti. • Last month was characterized by heavy rainfall across Haiti, with totals ranging from 50 mm to 500 mm. The highest monthly totals (300–500 mm) were recorded in southeastern Artibonite Department, southern Centre Department, northwestern Ouest Department, eastern Nippes Department, and eastern Sud Department. Elsewhere, rainfall totals ranged from 50 mm to 300 mm. As a result, positive rainfall anomalies were observed nationwide, with surpluses of 100–500 mm across much of the country, including northern, central, and southern regions. • For May, the NMME probabilistic forecast shows a 40-50% probability for above-normal conditions in southeastern Ouest and western Sud-Est departments, while modest probabilities 36-40% exist for below-normal rainfall in eastern Artibonite, southern Nord, southern Nord-Est, Centre, central and northern Ouest departments. For the seasonal forecast (May – July 2026), there is a 36–60% probability of below average rainfall across parts of central and southern Haiti. • The SPI forecast ending on April 28, 2026, anticipates wetter-than-average conditions over Haiti. The FEWS NET Monthly Climate and Weather information bulletin is based on current weather and climate information and monthly and seasonal outlooks from the NOAA CPC. Information on crops, soil moisture, flooding, and evapotranspiration data were produced by FEWS NET, USGS, NASA and USDA. Various sources were used to assess impacts of extreme conditions. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Dr. Wassila Thiaw, Deputy Director, CPC/NOAA, wassila.thiaw@noaa.gov. Questions about the DOS FEWS NET may be directed to Dr. Kiersten Johnson, Program Manager FEWS NET/DOS, johnsonkb2@state.gov. Haiti seasonal calendar. Source: FEWS NET Current Climate Modes and Teleconnections • During the past month, ENSO-neutral conditions emerged, as indicated by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. • The ENSO outlooks show ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026 (Fig. 1). For the latest update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on ENSO, check here. • During the last month, SSTs were warmer than average in western and northern Gulf of America, the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The Caribbean Sea adjacent to Central America observed mostly near-average SST. Figure 1. Official ENSO probabilities for the Niño 3.4 SST index (5oN−5oS, 120oW−170oW). Figure updated 12 February 2026. Source: NOAA/CPC • Implications of ENSO conditions: ENSO neutral conditions have little known impact on precipitation and temperature over Haiti during April-June 2026. The ENSO-precipitation teleconnection pattern can be found here, and the pattern for temperature can be found here. 2 Extreme Events • Local media news reported heavy rain in Port-de-Paix on March 21st, 2026. The heavy rainfall caused flash floods of unprecedented intensity affecting several neighborhoods in the city. • According to the Global Forest Watch, there was five fire alerts in Haiti during March 2026. Rainfall/Precipitation • Climatologically, March is part of the dry season in Haiti. During March, rainfall typically ranges from 10 mm to 25 mm in northern, southwestern and far southeastern Haiti, while slightly higher values from 25 mm to 50 mm are seen in central and central-southern regions of Haiti. Past 3 months (January – March 2026): • Totals: Over the last three months, the largest amounts of total rainfall ranged from 300 mm to 750 mm in northern and most of southern Haiti as well as in southern Artibonite, and southern and eastern Centre departments. Moreover, parts of Nord-Ouest, Nord, Nord-Est, Artibonite, Centre, Ouest, Sud-Est and northeastern Grande-Anse departments observed rainfall totals of 100 mm to 300 mm (Fig. 2a). • Anomalies: During the last three months, Haiti observed above average conditions. The highest rainfall surplus ranging from 300 mm to 500 mm was registered in southwestern Haiti, southwestern Artibonite, southern Centre, northwestern Ouest, northern Nord-Ouest, and northwestern Nord. Elsewhere, positive anomalies of 50 – 300 mm were observed (Fig. 2b). (a) (b) (c) Figure 2. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for January – March 2026: (a) 3-month total accumulation and (b) 3-month anomaly. (c) NMME seasonal rainfall probabilistic forecast for May – July 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP 3 Past 1 Month (March 2026): • Totals: March was characterized for heavy rainfall across Haiti with rainfall total ranging from 50 mm to 500 mm. The highest monthly totals between 300 mm and 500 mm were recorded in southeastern Artibonite, southern Centre, northwestern Ouest, eastern Nippes, and eastern Sud departments. The rest of Haiti observed values ranging from 100 mm to 300 mm, except for southwestern Nord-Ouest, central-western and central-eastern Artibonite, and northeastern Grande-Ande departments which observed rainfall accumulations between 50 mm and 100 mm (Fig. 3a). • Anomalies: Positive anomalies were registered in Haiti as a result of heavy rainfall during March. High rainfall surplus, ranging from 100 mm to 500 mm, was registered in most of Haiti, including the northern, central and southern regions. Lower amounts of positive rainfall anomalies ranging from 50 mm to 100 mm were observed in southwestern Nord-Ouest, central and northern Artibonite, southern Nord, southern Nord-Est, southeastern Ouest, northeastern Sud-Est and northeastern Grande-Anse. While March is climatologically a dry month, the elevated anomalies were driven by unusual cold front systems and easterly wind anomalies that brought moderate to heavy rainfall across Hispaniola (Fig. 3b). (a) (b) (c) Figure 3. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for March 2026: (a) 1-month total accumulation and (b) 1-month anomaly. (c) NMME monthly rainfall probabilistic forecast for May 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (May 2026 and May – July 2026): • Monthly: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models indicate low 36 – 40% probabilities of below-normal rainfall in eastern Artibonite, southern Nord, southern Nord-Est, Centre, central and northern Ouest departments. Moreover, 40–50% probability of above-normal conditions is indicated for southeastern Ouest and western Sud-Est departments. For the rest of the country, no dominant category is predicted (Fig. 3c). • Seasonal: The NMME seasonal forecast for May – July 2026 indicates probabilities of 36% – 60% for below average rainfall in parts of central and southern Haiti. There is no clear signal to favor any of the tercile categories in northern Haiti (Fig. 2c). 4 Temperature Past 3 months (January – March 2026): • Maximums: Seasonal maximum temperatures in most part of Haiti ranged from 25°C to 30°C, while the hottest temperatures of 30 – 35°C were registered in central-western Artibonite and northeastern Nord-Est (not shown). Near-average anomalies were observed in Haiti during the last three months (Fig. 4a). • Minimums: Temperatures of 20°C to 25°C were recorded in western Nord-Ouest, central-western Artibonite, northeastern Nord-Est. Cooler temperatures of 15°C to 20°C were observed in the rest of the country, except for southeastern Ouest and eastern SudEst department which show temperatures of 10 – 15°C (not shown). In terms of anomalies, below average anomalies were observed in central and centra-south Haiti’s region. The rest of the country observed near average conditions (Fig. 4b). Figure 4. Spatial structure of temperature for January – March 2026: (a) maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature for May – July 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Past 1 Month (March 2026): • Maximums: Maximum temperatures ranged from 25°C to 30°C in most of Haiti. Slightly higher temperatures of 30 – 35°C were observed in northeastern Haiti and in western and southeastern Artibonite, southwestern Centre, northwestern and southwestern Ouest, and western Sud-Est departments (not shown). In terms of anomalies, Haiti experienced nearaverage temperature anomalies during March (Fig. 5a). • Minimums: Most of Haiti observed minimum temperatures ranging from 15°C to 20°C (not shown). Mean minimum temperature anomalies were 1 – 2°C below average in parts of central and southern Haiti. Near average anomalies prevailed in northern, northeastern and southwestern Haiti (Fig. 5b). 5 Figure 5. Spatial structure of temperature for March 2026: (a) maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature for May 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (May 2026 and May – July 2026): • Monthly: The NMME forecast for May indicates an increased likelihood (over 70%) of above-normal temperatures in northeastern and southwestern Haiti. A likelihood, ranging from 60% to 70%, for above-normal temperatures is also predicted for the northwestern, central-western and southern regions of the country. Additionally, the GEFS ensemble models indicate 36 – 40% probabilities for below-normal temperature conditions in central and central-eastern regions of Haiti (Fig. 5c). • Seasonal: Similarly, the seasonal forecast for May – July 2026 shows that there is an increased likelihood (60 – 70%) of above-normal temperatures in northern, southwestern and southeastern Haiti. A likelihood, ranging from 50% to 60%, for above-normal temperatures is also predicted in central-western, southwestern and central-south regions of Haiti. The forecast indicates no clear signal for near, above-, or below-average temperatures in the central and central-eastern regions (Fig. 4c). Drought and Dryness The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to characterize meteorological drought. SPI compares the precipitation over a specific period of time with the climatology from that same period. Therefore, the SPI values can be thought of as the number of standard deviations observed anomaly deviates from the climatology. The 1-month SPI values are a good representation of the monthly precipitation anomaly as well as the soil moisture and vegetation health. The 3-month SPI values are a good representation of seasonal precipitation anomalies. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is similar to the SPI, but it also takes evapotranspiration into account (and therefore the impact of temperatures on water demand). Past 3 Months (January – March 2026): • The SPI analysis for the past 3 months indicates that wetter than average conditions (SPI values of 1.3 to more than 2 standard deviations above the mean) were observed across Hatiti (Fig. 6a). 6 Past 1 Month (March 2026): • During the last month, the SPI analysis shows that wetter than average conditions were experienced over Haiti. Hight SPI values (SPI values of 1.6 to more than 2 standard deviations above the mean) were registered across the country as result of heavy rainfall observed during March (Fig. 6b). Current/Forecast (01 February 2026 – 28 April 2026): • The SPI forecast suggests that wetter-than-average conditions will prevail in the country. Positive SPI anomalies (SPI values ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 standard deviations above the mean) are expected in most of central and central-eastern, central-south, and northwestern areas of Haiti. Larger positive SPI values (larger than 2.0 standard deviations above the mean) are expected in northwestern, far northeastern, central-west, southeastern and southwestern parts of the country (Fig. 6c). (b) (a) (c) Figure 6: Spatial structure of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for (a) January– March 2026, (b) March 2026, and (c) Spatial structure of SPI constructed from observations for 01 February to 28 March 2026 and 4 weeks forecast ending on 28 April 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) • USGS/EROS crop WRSI: The last product available for the 3rd Dekad of December 2025 indicates ‘Average’ to ‘Very Good’ crop conditions in Haiti. GEOGLAM Crop Monitor • According to the March 2026 GEOGLAM Global Crop Monitor report, the second harvesting season of rice and the sowing for the Printemps season of maize are under watch conditions. Additional Resources - https://protectioncivile.gouv.ht/ - https://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/ 7 Annex Figure A1. ENSO teleconnection for the April – June (AMJ) season. The upper-level panel shows the precipitation and temperature anomalies regressed onto the standardized Niño-3.4 index. The bottom panel shows the correlation between Nino-3.4 and the anomalies. Source : https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/regressions/ 8