(1991) Estrateji Enèji pou Fwaye ann Ayiti

[page 1] Ko} S = METREIn SEA ENER FRE ERA HUE NES À 2 11 CA 61 ES EI EE EN EE EPS ES EE EC 2 ES D GG EN GS PU A PA Yoan er = a API E FA FE à 1 FA 64 FA PA FA F1 FR ë rm D ESA à Hnhea Are SEA Se A) RARE RREAREABRE MF Eve Cf onu iv l ESP E PÉÉRÉEREE) HMS Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme re) ee] À AECERIRER- / 3 ÿ, 00 TD Ÿ . = @ @ £ =] 2 5 . © £ Household Energy Strategy 3 £ Report No. 143/91 S À _&) . % . [page 2] JOINT UNDP / WORLD BANK ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME (ESMAP) PURPOSE The Joint UNDP/Worid Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme (ESMAP) was launched in 1983 to complement the Energy Assessment Programme, established three years earlier. ESMAP”s original purpose was to implement key recommendations of the Energy Assessment reports and ensure that proposed investments in the energy sector represented the most efficient use of scarce domestic and external resources. In 1990, an international Commission addressed ESMAP's role for the 1990s and, noting the vital role of adequate and affordable energy in economic growth, concluded that the Programme should intensify its efforts to assist developing countries to manage their envrgy sectors more effectively. The Commission also recommended that ESMAP concentrate on making long-term efforts in a smaller number of “ountries. The Commission’s report was endorsed at ESMAP’s November 1990 Annual Meeting and prompted an extensive reorganization and reorientation of the Programme. Today, ESMAP is conducting Energy Assessments, performing preinvestment and prefeasibility work, and providing institutional and policy advice in selected developing countries. Through these efforts, ESMAP aims to assist governments, donors, and potential investors in identifying, funding, and implementing economically and environmentally sound energy strategies. GOVERNANCE AND OPERATIONS ESMAP is governed by a Consultative Group (ESMAP CG), composed of representatives of the UNDP and World Bank, the govemmments and institutions providing financial support, and representatives of the recipients of ESMAP’s assistance. The ESMAP CG is chaired by the World Bank’s Vice President, Operations and Sector Policy, and advised by a Technical Advisory Group (TAG; of independent energy experts that reviews the Programme”s strategic agenda, its work program, and other issues. The Manager of ESMAP, who reports to the World Bank’s Vice President, Operations and Sector Policy, administers the Programme. The Manager is assisted by a Secretariat, headed by an Executive Secretary, which supports the ESMAP CG and the TAG and is responsible for relations with the donors and for securing funding for the Programmes activities. The Manager directs ESMAP"s two Divisions: The Strategy and Programs Division advises on selection of countries for assistance, carries out Energy Assessments, prepares relevant programs of technical assistance, and supports the Secretariat on funding issues. The Operations Division is responsible for formulation of subsectoral strategies, preinvestment work, institutional studies, technical assistance, and training within the framework of ESMAP”s country assistance programs. FUNDING ESMAP is a cooperative effort supported by the World Bank, UNDP and other United Nations agencies, the European Community, Organization of American States (OAS), Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE), and countries including Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. FURTHER INFORMATION For further information or copies of completed ESMAP reports, contact: The Manager or The Executive Secretary ESMAP ESMAP Consultative Group The World Bank The World Bank 1818 H Street N.W. 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. U.S.A. [page 3] HAITI HOUSEHOLD ENERGY STRATEGY | DECEMBER 1991 [page 4] EXCHANGE RATE US$ 1 = Gourdes 5.0 = Haitian $1 US$ 1= FF 58 | CONVERSION FACTORS Petroleum Products tons/m3 MUks LPG 0.55 457 Kerosene 0.8 43.5 Diesel 0.84 433 Woodfuds Wood (air dry, 20% humiditÿ) 07 17.0 Charcoal (10% humidity) 29.0 Bagasee (50% humidity) 75 Electricity TIOE/GWh . Final Energy 86 Primary Energy 283 Others 1 US Gallon = 3.785 liters 1barrel = 159 Liters 1 TOE = 4187 GJ = 10 million kcal Charcoal production efficiency = 20% (in weight) 1 stere of wood = 1 m° (stacked) = 0.6 m3 (round wood) 1 carreau = 1.29 ha [page 5] ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AFVP Association Française des Volontaires du Progrès AOP Agroforestry Outreach Project RAPP Bureau d'Approvisionnement en Produits Pétroliers BDPA Bureau de Développement de la Production Agricole BIT Bureau International dn Travail BME Bureau des Mines et de l'Energie BRH Banque de la République d'Haïti CPNAP Commissariat à la Promotion Nationale et à l'Administration Publique | DRE Direction des Ressources Energétiques (BME) EdH Electricité d'Haïti ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme FAC : Fonds d'Aide et de Coopération FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FEFP Forestry and Environmental Protection Project GoH Government of Haiti IDA International Development Association LPG Liquified Petroleum Gas MARNDR Ministère de l'Agriculture, des Ressources Naturelles et du Développement Rural ODH Operation Double Harvest NGO Non Governmental Organization OLADE Latin American Energy Organization TFAP Tropical Forestry Action Plan PFN Projet Forestier National UNDP United Nations Development Program | REDI Renewable Energy Development Institute - SRF Service des Ressources Forestières TOE Ton Oil Equivalent ‘ USAID United States Agency for International Development [page 6] EE DU LS D RE FT ES ÊÉ 88 :: É 1: HF HUDEFRRS THE CER 1 ID II SE: iilllgiiiBie.::é 88:54: 5 1 SRI IÉ 2: : À : II IÉ::!a:s:::s Gre E: 9 Li : [ES I: CE. du ni FE + £ E 1 1 LESSE le Ë : [ÊBes |: spiipeité ie ia5e £ . : Em ++ EE : PRET :$ Ÿ: Ë ! : :862348: £ BSÉE :: AIT] LÉELS SL | ASÉe ñ ñ :,ZÈE SE: 14 £z : : :ê% : ES 5 Fire HE 33e s 38 5 : » 88 CPRÈLE ÉCÉÉFÉTÉEMELECTÉ H8es FE ! S NSP Sidos Tee HU ER EITÉ + RURNNER ft 5 ip de: #4 CÉRE - ÉO< e cl É à Ë Q . Fs = (= [page 7] # Page No, ‘ Current Economic Situation of Charcoal Exploitation ................. 33 Modernizing the Charcoal Sector ........,....,,,......,............... 37 Geographic Reorientation of Charcoal Offtake ......,..,.....,,..... 38 Modernization of Supply Networks ............,..,..,...........,. 41 Improving the Charcoal Taxation System ...........,.............. 42 Economic Conditions for Charcoal Substitution .................,.....,...' 44 Impact on the Balance of Payments ........,.,.........,..,..,,... 49 The Market for Fuels and Stoves ....,...,,,.....,.,,.......,.......... 50 Current Users of Improved Stoves, Gas Stoves and Kerosene Stoves ...... 50 Consumer Acceptance of Different Stoves and Fuels ...........,...... 51 Substitution and Conservation: Discarded Options ........................ 58 Supply Master Plan for Port-au-Prince ............,.,,...,.,....., 71 M Ansstance to Charcoël PROdUoers + «++eseressrssererreerererereeee 7 TABLES: . 13 Cooking Fuel Use in Port-Au-Prince according to Living Cooking Equipment -au-Prince in BE TOI HOUSEhOÏdS een Deer eererereereeseeeeee 7 16 Charcoal retail posts counted in Port-au-Prince ......................,.... 11 17 Production areas of charcoal since 1979 in percentage ...................... 13 [page 8] . Page No, 3.1 Compared Costs of Cooking in Port-au-Prince, 1990 sessosossssssesesossses 46 32 Coss of Importing Gas and Kerosene ......,...,.,,,,.,..,............. 47 33 Comparison of Propane Price Structures in Haiti and 3.5 Bip Ticheris share of the gas market in thousands of households .............. 50 36 Reuls of the mask sud in Portau-Prince sossoceossenosesssssesressee 5 . ummarized Budget of the Strategy's Compon’ats ....,...,.,...,........., 43 Economic Analysis ..........,.,....,.,,.,,... secs 79 FIGURES: 11 Charcoal Supply Systems in Haiti according to Stevenson (1985) ............. 12 3.2 Producer’s Share of Charcoal Price - 1979-1990 Trend ...........,.......... 35 34 Costs of Cooking with Charcoal, Kerosene and Gas ...............,........ 45 4.1 Expected Impact of the Strategy .................,.........,.......... 64 ANNEXES: IL Energy Prices in the Caribbean and Central America ..........,............. 90 IV. Volumes of Charcoal Entries in Port-au-Prince ......,......,......,...,... 99 V. Price Structures of Charcoal, Gas and Kerosene ,......................... 100 VIL Factor Anaïiysis of the Household Survey ..........,...,,...........,,.., 111 VIN. Market Study for Household Fuels ......,.,.,...,..........,.......,.. 116 X General Data .............,.,....,,..,....esssssssosceessssosee 127 XIL Economic Cost of Charcoal .......,..,..........,.,.,.,..........,... 149 XIV. Budget of the Strategy's Components ................................... 158 MAPS: ‘ IBRD No. 23061 - Haïti, Progression of Charcoal Production Areas IBRD No. 23062 - Haïti, Charcoal Production Areas IBRD No. 22676 - Haiti, Forestry and Environmental Protection Project [page 9] FOREWORD This study was completed as an activity of the Joint Worid Bank/UNDP/Bilateral Aid Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). Financing for the study was provided mainly by the Norwegian Government, as well 2s by UNDP, the French Government and the Jai inese Fund. The study was implemented with the assistance of and in close coordination - with ‘he BME/UNDP/OLADE Energy Sector Strengthening Project (HAÏ/89/031) and with the teams involved in the preparation of the IDA financed Forest and Environmental Protection Project. ESMAP and its consultants worked with their main counterpart, the Bureau of Mines and Energy (BME) as well as will the Forest Resources Service (FRS), the Bureau for Petroleum Product Supply (BAPP) and the main Haitian organizations operating in the sector. The study coordinator in the BME was Loctamard Antilus, Director of Energy Resources. Nicole Dieudonné, Guilen Aurelien and Naquin Medina also participated in the study. Violette Derosiers was responsible for survey data entry (carried out at the BME), with assistance from Marie Mercie Dieujuste and Eunide Germain. The main authors of the following report are Philippe Durand (Task Manager, . ESMAP) and Michel Matly (Energy Economist, coordinator of the consultant team). The study team included Jocelyne Durany-Jakob and Carole Roy (Consultants, Sociologists), Joséphine Arpaillange (Energy Statistician, ESMAP), Christian Bonaparte (Consultant, Marketing Specialist), Calixte Clérismé (Consultant, Sociologist) and Kevin Fitzgerald (Energy Statistician, ESMAP), as well as about thirty presenters and pollsters. This study is based on a major data collection effort comprising both quantitative and qualitative information collected from December 1989 to May 1990. During this time, the following main surveys and in-field inquiries were carried out: household survey, market polls and .… surveys of small businesses in Port-au-Prince; surveys of charcoal retailers and transporters in Port- au-Prince and in the main cities, surveys of rural merchants and charcoal producers in the main areas which supply charcoal to Port-au-Prince; counting ‘he number of charcoal entries at Port- au-Prince (see Annex XIII). [page 10] ie EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Environmental Degradation 1. Haitis environment is undergoing a gradual process of severe degradation, which has immediately perceptible and sometimes irreversible effects, especially with regard to loss of soils and decreasing agricultural yields. Even though this environmental problem has arisen partially due . to multiple non-energy factors (demographic pressures, agricultural techniques, irregular land tenure practices), the fact remains that woodfuel consumption, especially urban charcoal consumption, is a major contributor to deforestation. This is not a newly noted phenomenon: experts have cited it for more than a decade. However during that time, no coherent, comprehensive program has been proposed or undertaken by the Haitian Government with assistance from international development agencies. 2. It is significant that in Haiti — frequently cited as one of the countries in the worid where environmental destruction has reached an alarming phase -- there is no recent inventory of forest or biomass resources, nor any serious analysis quantifying the extent of deforestation. Without fundamental data needed to accurately evaluate the current state of the biomass stock and its annual growth, alarmist accounts of the approaching demise of the last Haitian tree persist. Independently of the uncertainties surrounding wood-energy supply potential, deforestation in Haiti is an incontestable reality; it is therefore important to reduce the pressure on forest resources generated by woodfuel consumption, especially charcoal consumed in Port-au-Prince. 3. The only national-scale projects related to this problem have been carried out by the private sector. ‘They comprise mainly the agro-forestry tree planting projects run by non- governmental organizations operating throughout the country. Although these plantations are expensive and their overall success has been relative, several million new trees grow in Haiti each - year as a result of these efforts. An additional advantageous outcome is that tree planting has become iugrained into traditional peasant practices. However, tree planting efforts represent only partial solutions to Haitis deforestation problem. Based on the latest analyses of deforestation, at least 23 million surviving trees would need to be planted each year, ie. nearly 10 times the current rate, in order to reverse the destruction of national forest resources, | 4. Public management of forest resources, already relatively ineffective, has continued to worsen. In 1986, a new stage was reached: monitoring of forest exploitation disappeared almost totally. Since then, charcoal exploitation has spread throughout the country, starting from areas where large-scale production was already the norm, so that now almost all regions of Haiti market Charcoal for the capital. In some parts of the country, particularly along the uorthwest peninsula, [page 11] “il charcoal production plays a major role in the rural ecosiomy and has become an important source of income for numerous peasants. 5. The large scale plantations approach has been abandoned because of the lack of financial profitability which in turn prompted landholders away from this option. Also, investments for reforestation and forestry research under the National Forestry Project have produced only minor results relative to the deforestation problem. The project achieved somewhat limited progress with increasing the effectiveness of forestry control; but the Forestry Service still monitors only 10% of the charcoal trade. 6. Several projects have addressed the problem of charcoal conservation (BME, NGOs). Results were negligible duc to the small size of the projects, lack of resources and dispersed efforts. Although studies show that the charcoal cookstoves currently in use are highly inefficient, there have been no commercial-scale promotion of improved models. 7. The initiative for developing charcoal substitutes has been taken by the pri‘ate sector, which introduced portable butane gas stoves (Bip Ticheri) and engaged in large-scale ‘ publicity campaigns to promote this fuel. The Government assisted private sector efforts by decontrolling gas prices and appiying favorable foreign exchange conditions to fuel imports in 1987, with extension of the same conditions to the import of Bip cookstoves in 1989. Costs of Household Fuels 8. Extensive use of charcoal in Haitis cities is, to a very large extent, an indirect consequence of the high gas prices which result from current supply and distribution arrangements. In fact, the Haitian gas market is a de facto monopoly, characterized by small and often outdated installations and gas prices among the highest in the Caribbean, if not the world. It is a captive market for the petroleum company which holds a monopoly over the entire supply of gas -- from gas purchases on the international market to retail distribution. 9. Under the current situation -- no other supply alternatives, decontrolled gas prices, no taxes or tarifs -- the official gas policy is prejudicial against the State itself, depriving it of much needed resources. This policy costs the economy about $2.5 million annually, has no direct benefits to the consumer and only marginelly provides incentives for the use of gs as a charcoal-substitute. Under a more norcnal price structure, the gas could be lightly taxed, and the supplier margins would be reduced so that the final price is much less costly for the consumer. 10. Analyses show that under normal conditions cf supply, gas becomes the best financial option for the consumer and the best economic option for the country. Market studies underscore that gas is also the fuel which is most likely to successfully substitute for charcoal in urban Haitian [page 12] iv. households: the market poten‘al is for conversion of 25% io 50% of households in the capital depending on which pricing assumptions are retained, as compared to a potential market share of less than 10% for its direct competitors, kerosene and electricity. The upper estimate, 50%, is substantially higher than the current rate of market penetration: only 15% of Port-au-Prince households use gas as the only or primary fuel. However, this is far below the estimated 70% ütilization rate by households in the capital of the Dominican Republic, though the fuel is heavily subsidized (and the price of charcoal is two times higher than in Haïti). ii. The household energy sector is in complete economic disequilibrium and thus rapid intervention is needed. Peasant charcoal producers subsidize urban consumers since wood is acquired at a price far below its replacement cost - prices which reflect a “mining” mentality in the exploitation of forestry resources - thereby contributing to degradation of the environment and the rural economy. International organizations subsidize reforestation activities and even part of the operating costs for the forestry services, while elsewhere ineffective collection of charcoal-related taxes represents a recoverable loss of nearly $1 million annually. The public authorities subsidize the gas sector to a considerable extent through its favorable import policies; unfortunately, no benefits accrue to either the consumer or the State, even though the State itself is sorely in need of more sources of operating revenues. Action Prioriti 12. The primary objective of any intervention in these areas is to gradually restore the financial and economic equilibriums in the sector through: lowering significantly the price of gas; aliowing charcoal prices to increase substantially; introducing mechanisms for the State to generate revenues from the marketing of both fuels, sufficient for financing operations and partial investments by the public entities responsible for managing the sector. 13. Intervention also will be centered only on several main themes which represent important stakes for the country and which are likely to have significant impacts. These themes will be addressed in a manner s0 that the scale of intervention will have national impacts. 14. Intervention requires the State to affirm its political willingness to act at the highest ‘levels, and to make a more accurate accounting of its strengths and weaknesses, by seeking intervention of existing non-governmental and private entities, and by negotiating when necessary with the local populations. "15 Finally, intervention in the household energy sector must be designed as a contribution to solve the problem of environment degradation. A household energy strategy would _: therefore not hinder but rather complement and reinforce the country's global strategy for natural resource management. [page 13] V- Strategy Components 16. The proposed strategy contains measures designed.to effectively redress quickly the current dramatic situation in the sector by intervening on four levels -- the four components of the recommended strategy: a. opening the gas market, b. generating charcoal savings, & modernizing the charcoal sector, d. sector monitoring and evaluation. 17. The first component of the strategy, opening the gas market, will create conditions for real competition in the gas sector, thus producing downward pressure on the gas prices to the benefit of consumers. It also will facilitate access to gas as a primary fuel and to gas appliances by the less privileged classes (middle classes and upper levels of the poorer households), This will be accomplished by either installing new receiving, storage and filling infrastructure or by enlarging existing infrastructure, with possibly temporary recourse to gas imports supplied from the Dominican Republic. The various possibilities of partnerships between private or institutional operators, both local and foreign, should be studied, as well as the legal, regulatory and fiscal aspects of the prerequisites and consequences of partnership choices. 18. The second component of the strategy is the large-scale distribution of improved charcoal stoves in Port-au-Prince and in the four major secondary cities in Haiti. In fact, even under the most favorable assumptions of substitution by other fuels, the proportion of households which will continue to use charcoal will remain significant: about one in every two, on average in the major cities. The distribution will target household users of round stoves and "potaje* cookstoves, as weli as small roadside food vendors (“manje kwit”). A total distribution of 80,000 stoves is anticipated at the end of three years. ‘ 19. The third component targets the reorganization and rationalization of charcoal . exploitation. Charcoal exploitation will be redistributed geographically through the use of regional production quotas, which will ensure that charcoal production is carried out in areas where the risks to the environment are acceptable. The component will help the Haitian Government to more effectively control the flows of charcoal, especially for marketing in the capital, and to collect taxes associated with charcoal transport. The component is based on definition and implementation of a Supply Mastér Plan for Port-au-Prince, strengthening and improvement of controls on charcoal transport and of the tax collection system, contribution to defining a priority rural development program to compensate local populations for losses generated by application of charcoal quotas, and [page 14] .vi- implementation of an assistance program for charcoal producers in zones where charcoal exploitation will continue. 20. The fourth component includes creation of a Steering Unit for the strategy. The Steering Unit will assure permanent supervision and coordination of the household energy sector and will assure cooperation between the various sector participants, as well as coordination and evaluation of activities carried out as part of the strategy. In order to promote coherence in the sector, the Steering Unit will also oversee adjustments to pricing and fiscal policy and legislation concerning the different fuels. At the fiscal level, the strategy includes improved collection rates for charcoal prices and a new tax on the price of gas once the gas price structure has been revised so that gas can be distributed throughout Haiti at lower prices (para. 16). Strategy Results 21. The main outcomes of the Strategy will be to stabilize charcoal consumption in Haïti and to gradually transform as much charcoal production as possible into a sustainable, financially profitable and environmentally benign economic activity. Specific outcomes for the strategy once the four components have been implemented are the following: a. gradually increase in the proportion of urban consumers using gas as the primary fuel, with a target percentage of 35% of Port-au-Prince households in 1996 and 50% in 2001 (10% and 20% respectively in other cities); | b. development of gas consumption from 7,000 tons at present to 23,000 tons in 1996 and 41,000 tons in 2001; c. use of improved stoves by one of every two charcoal consumers in Port-au-Prince by the year 2001; d. gradual drop in charcoal consumption (and thus decreased pressure on national forest resources) by 43% of projected 2001 consumption, through substitution by gas e. improvement of conditions for charcoal production and rationalization of the access to forest resources in the main charcoal exploitation districts (Supply Master Plan for Port-au-Prince), including improved tax policy and better enforcement of regulations concerning charcoal commerce (tax collection rates for charcoal transport to go from 10% in 1990 to 60% in 1996}; £ vocational training and assistance for developing professionalism among 500 small. scale charcoal makers. [page 15] .vi- 22. The impacts of this strategy on the national economy are the following: a. relative increase in petroleum product imports of 12% by 2001, all other things being equal. This is equivalent, in terms of the current level of external trade, to 4% of the countries total exports. b. income generated by charcoal exploitation in the main production zones to remain constant (or , under normal conditions, to increase due to efforts to increase the real producer price). Costs and Financing | 3. Implementation costs for the strategy total US$ 10.5 million over the 1992-1994 period: US$ 0.8 million for the stove distribution program, (which is included in IDA’s Forestry and Environmental Protection Project) US$1.4 million for modernizing the charcoal sector, US$ 7,8 million for petroleum investments (n° stly private), and US$ 0.8 million for monitoring and evaluation. Total recurrent costs are estimated at US$900,000 over the period 1995-2001. The simplified economic and financial analysis gives a financial IRR of 10% and an economic IRR of 40% for the period 1992-2001. 24. Considering the urgency of implementing the Strategy's components, obtaining the : necessary funding should be among the Government’s priorities. Several bilateral donors traditionally active in the energy and forestry sectors could be approached, such as France, Canada, USAID and Germany. Other resources might also be tapped, such as the Haïti Economic and Social Fund in the recently-created Global Environment Facility. [page 16] L OVERVIEW General Socio-Econcmic Overview Deterioration of the Economy 11 By far the poorest country on the Latin American continent, Haïti has been inthe midst of a sustained economic and social crisis for over a decade. This crisis is manifested by a continuous decline in per capita GDP averaging 1 to 2% per annum since 1985 and estimated at nearly 4% in 1989. The drop in GDP has had repercussions in all economic sectors, The decreased demand for imports, associated with the economic slowdown and the resulting reduction in the populations purchasing power, has been totally offset by declining exports, decreasing of foreign aid and the loss of tourism revenues. Thus the trade deficit, which was about 40% in 1989, remains substantial. In the formal commercial sector, the level of salaried employment has continued to drop: according to the National Bank of Haïti (Banque de la République d'Haïti - BRH), the number of employees in the formal sector declined by 10% between 1986 and 1989. The effects of the crisis have not spared the informal sector: during the last three years, about 20% of the 3300 mini and small businesses located in the capital have been forced to shut down. 12 Inflation was relatively moderate until recently but now is on the rise; officially estimated at 7%, actual inflation figures were in the range of 15 to 20% in 1989. The prices of most basic products have increased substantially: food products such as oil, meat, eggs and sugar rose by 30 to 80% between February 1989 and February 1990, Construction materials also increased by 25% during the same period (30% for timber alone). By contrast, the minimum salary in Haïti (H$ 100/month) has not changed since 1984. A progressive weakening of Haïtÿs currency is linked with this inflation. At the beginning of 1990, there was a 40% differential between the nominal rate of exchange (S Gourdes per $1) and the actual rate offered on the parallel market. There results a continued erosion of purchasing power in urban households, particularly among the middle classes, whether it be for purchases of imported supplies and products (automobile purchases, for example, have dropped from nearly 6000 in 1985 to 2500 in 1989) or more simply for purchases of local products. _ Activity Slowdown in Rural Areas 13 Agricultural activity has been on the decline for several years, as evidenced by a decrease in its value added ir 1989; in constant terms, value added already had fallen by 10% from 1986 to 1989. Agricultural activity decline is particularly noticeable at the level of crop exports for products such as cocoa (production was halved between 1985 and 1988) or sugar cane (production went from 2 million tons in 1985 to 350,000 tons in 1989). Inflation coupled with a decline in international market prices act as disincentives to rural producers: the tendency now is [page 17] .2- to move away from export-oriented cash crops and raise food crops instead. The eradication of pigs also has deprived the peasants of one of their rare sources of monetary income. Marketed production and monetary income in rural areas thus have been reduced considerably, producing inflationary repercussions on the prices of products flowing onto the national market. Demographic Pressures 14 With an estimated population of 5.8 million in 1990, Haïti has a population density of 215 inhabitants per km’, one of the highest in the hemisphere. This creates a growing pressure on the environment due to demand for new agricultural land. Even so, the annual growth rate for the rufal population is estimated at only 0.7% for the period 1982-2000, while the growth rate for the urban population would reach nearly 5% during the same period; the capital, Port-au-Prince, represents nearly 20% of the total population. This urban population, most of whom consume charcoal, thus constitutes a rapidly growing threat to the environment. The Energy Sector National Energy Demand 15 Per capita consumption of commercial energy in Haïti is among the lowest in the world and certainly the lowest on the Latin American continent, Estimated at 18 barrels of oil equivalent (b.0.e.), annual per capita consumption is only half that of the Dominican Republic, one third that of Jamaica or Barbados, and one quarter that of Cuba. These comparisons are even more striking for electricity consumption, which measures about 51 kWh per capita annually in | Haïti, versus 430 kWh in the Dominican Republic, 510 kWh in Jamaica, and 1410 kWh in Cuba. Only a fraction of Haïtis population has access to commercial energy; kerosene, used for lighting, is the only fuel in widespread usage. Gas 1/ and electricity are used by a very small segment of the population, almost exclusively in urban areas (the national electrification rate is less than 15%). 16 The most recent energy consumption data (for the year 1985) are summarized in Table 1.1. Residential energy consumption represents more than half the total energy demand, followed by the commercial sector (21% of national demand), industry and transport. The table emphasizes the preponderance of the woodfuels sector in national energy supply: fuelwood, which by itself represents 70% of the national supply, charcoal and sugar cane bagasse, Haïti currently is more than 80% self-sufficient in energy due to residential use of wood in rural areas and of charcoal in urban area. Still it also should be noted that fuelwood, bagasse and, to a lesser extent, charcoal, are used largely by the industrial sector; thus these fuels cumulatively represent 63% of energy consumption by industry. 1 [page 18] . um. Jeble 1,9: Finel energy consumption, 1985 ° C1000 TE) << <À<<Ï@Ïnesïdential industry Tramaport Commercial Publie Toxal .… Petroleux products 17.4 49.0 121.5 | - 187.9 Lpa ° 2.7 1.2 3.9 Electrtoity 10.1 111 1.2 3.1 25.5 Charcoal 88.9 1.5 90.6 Fueluood 635.1 49.8 286.5 971.4 Bagesse 86.0 86.0 TOTAL 754.2 233.9 121.5 287.7 4.3 1401.6 17 * _ ‘Several surveys and evaluations by the BME and within the framework of this study show the breakdown of charcoal and fuelwood consumption by category of consumer. This breakdown is presented in Table 1.2, which shows both the levels of woodfuel consumption and their equivalent in terms of wood cutting. One will note: (a) the importance of charcoal, which is only consumed by less than 30% of the population, but represents 40% of the demand for wood, (b) the importance of non-residential charcoal consumption, estimated to represent . 20% of the total charcoal consumption, (c) the importance of Port-au-Prince for charcoal consumption; with two-thirds of the national consumption. [page 19] -4: Jable 1,2: VWoodfuel Consumption în Haîti, 1990 Charcoal Woodfuel Wood equivalent c1000€) (1000t) (1000t) Ca) C1000m8) (b) 3 Port-au-Prince Households 160 800 1,143 21 Informal sectors, others « 200 286 $ Bekeries/dry cleaning 2 20 2 1 sub total 200 2 1020 1658 27 Other urben Households (c) 65 30 355 507 9 ‘ Informal sectors, others 15 7 107 2 Bakeries/dry cleaning 20 2 2 1 sub total 80 50 450 643 12 Rural Households 2100 2100 3000 56 . Gufidives 130 130 186 4 Oil factories 30 Li 43 1 ab total 2260 2260 3229 61 Total Haîti | Households 225 2130 3255 4650 87 . Others 55 200 475 620 13 Totel 280 2330 5730 5330 100 Notes: (a) Charcoal production efficiency estimated at 20% {in weight}. {b) Wood density estimated at 0.7 tons/n3. . (c) 90% of households use charcoël. Source: Surveys of ESMAP/BME/OLADE/PNUD, 1990 CAnnex 1X). Revised BKE data (1987). | 18 Despite the dominance of woodfuel in the national energy balance, petroleum imports represent a considerable weight on the Haitian economy. Petroleum imports amounted to nearly 50% of total exports in 1982, when oil prices peaked, After falling sharply to just 20% in 1987, the ratio between oil imports and total exports has begun to increase once again, due party to the continued erosion of exports of goods and services and partly to the sustuined demand for energy (Annex X). | 19 Thus in 1989, the energy bill absorbed more than 30% of the country’s export revenues, Kerosene and LPG represent 10% in volume ane about 20% in value of all petroleum product imports to the country. Although gas consumption is very limited (about 10,000 tons in 1989), the value of gas imports alone is equivalent to 4% of the total value of Haïtis exports. [page 20] -5- ‘ 1.10 One of the reasons for low consumption of commercial energy is without doubt that Haïti is one of the Central American and Caribbean countries where petroleum products and electricity are most expensive. A comparison of prices in Haïti and the Dominican Republic demonstrates this: even taking into account the overvaluation of Haitian currency ( a 40% margin | estimated between the official market rate and the parallel rate relative to the dollar), the price of kerosene and diesel are about two times higher in Haïti, that of electricity three times, and LPG prices nearly five times higher than in the Dominican Republic (see Annex IT), where LPG is heavily subsidized, 111 Conditions for marketing and distribution are such that major differentials also exist between the economic costs of the various fuels in Haïti and in other Central American and Caribbean countries. This is particularly true for LPG, a fuel which is not under government price control. Residential Consumption 1.12 The categorization of Port-au-Prince households by fuel (primary and secondary) is summarized in Table 13. Charcoal is the most utilized fuel, consumed by 90% of the capital's households. The most affluent classes are abandoning the use of charcoal (only about 2/5 of the 20% most affluent households use charcoal as their primary fuel). Those who consume charcoal only (62% of the population) use about 0.44 kg per capita daily. Taking into account secondary uses of charcoal, daily per capita consumption in the capital for all households combined is ‘estimated between 0.36 kg (based on weighings carried out in 22 households) and 0.42 kg (based on a survey of 400 households). This results in a total residential consumption for Port-au-Prince approaching 160,000 tons in 1990 (based on the results of the household survey). [page 21] .6- Jable 1,3: Cooking Fuet Use în Port-au-Prince sccording to Living Standard Quint {le (in percentage) Nodiun kediun Lou Low Medium High High Total ———————————————————— Only or maîn fuel 89.7 %.6 97.8 83.8 41.1 80.8 Secondary fuel 6.4 2.4 2.2 13.3 32.8 10.9 Total 96.1 99.0 100.0 95.1 73.9 n1.7 as Only or sain fuel 1.3 1.3 2.5 13.9 55.8 15.1 Secondary fuel 1.3 3.7 3.7 31.0 22.0 12.0 Total 2.6 5.0 6.2 4.9 77.8 27.1 FUELWOOD Only or main fuel 7.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 Secondary fuel 6.4 4.9 1.3 0.0 0.0 2.5 Total 16.1 6.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 11.8 ELECTRICITY Only or main fuel 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 3.5 Secondary fuel 2.6 0.0 3.8 11.3 6.3 4.5 Total 3.9 0.0 3.8 11.3 8.8 8.0 KEROSENE . Only or maîn fuel 0.0 1.2 0.0 2.5 13 13 Secondary fuel 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.8 13 1.8 Total 0.0 1.2 3.8 6.3 2.6 3.1 Source: Survey ESMAP/BKE/OLADE/PAUD, 1990 hote: See Annex X for the definition of the Living stendard varisble end average income end food expenditure for each quintile. 113 Among the other fuels, gas is of special note, as nearly 27% of households currently are equipped with gas stoves or gas cookers, and more than half of these (15% of total) use gas as the primary fuel (see Table 14). In fact, use of gas is well established mainly in high-income households (half use it as the primary fuel) and middle-income households (those with incomes of more than $250/month). Use of gas among households with more modest incomes still is relatively limited: however, the arrival of "popular gas” with the dissemination of Bip single-flame butane has generate an initial penetration of this market. More than 50% of portable gas cookstoves are sold to households with incomes of less than $250/month (the last three quintiles of the population). 114 Other fuels are used only by small segments of the population: wood used in poor households (2.1% in open fires and 4.1% in portable cookstoves); kerosene, which one finds in use among the fringes of middle- to high-income population (0.8% primary usage and 53% in stoves/cookers); and electricity (0.8% primary usage and 5.3% in stoves/cookers) used uniquely in affluent households. [page 22] 7. 115 Household energy consumption in the secondary cities of Haïti (the main ones beiag Cap Haitien, Les Cayes, Gonaïves and St Marc) apparently is comparable s0 that in the capital, with charcoal predominating. The proportion of households using gas and kerosene for cocking is much lower, however, and residential consumption of fuelwood is still widespread, especially in certain port neighborhoods situated along city outskirts. Jable 1,4: Cooking Equipaent in Port-au-Prince In Percentage of Total Households Hain Stove Secondary stove Other stove Wood Three stones 1.8 2.5 - Charcoat Round stove s5.3 10.3 . tPotajé* stove (:ætal) 13.6 3.5 . wPotajé” stove (blocks) 7.0 3.8 - square stove 4.0 2.3 - Improved stove 1.5 0 0 Yotat 81.4 19.9 2.3 Gas Bip Tichéri 3.5 5.8 1.5 Plate 1.5 0.3 0 Cooker 9.8 7.0 2.5 Totat w.8 1.1 4.0 Kerosene 1.0 5.5 13 Electricity 1.0 4.5 13 TOTAL. 100.0 CE 9.0 - Source: Surveys ESMAP/BKE/CLADE/PHUD 1990. ‘ - Less than 13. Charcoal Cookstoves . 116 There are various metallic traditional cookstoves available (see Table 14); the dominant types are the following: (a) the round stove (or its square version), which sells for prices varying from $1.5 to $2, is used by two-thirds of the households, (b) the "potajé" stove, consisting of two or three burners supported by a metallic or cement block frame, is used by nearly 30% of the households, generally the most affluent. The metallic model of this “top of the line” stove costs from $15 to $20, and the “block” model sells for about $3 to $S per burner. [page 23] -8- 117 The lifespan of these stoves is approximatelÿy one year. The round single-burner stoves (as well as their square version) are produced by ‘réchauliers" (craftsmen who specialize in making portable cookstoves), and the potajé stoves by iron or metal masons. An estimated 200 réchauliers can be found in the capital. Consumption by Small Industry 118 With regard to wood and charcoal consumption by the urban productive sector, a distinction must be made between two main categories: (a) productive activities in the informal sector, which often consume charcoal, (b) bakeries and dry-cleaners, which use mostly firewood. 1.19 Among the activities of the informal sector, small roadside restaurants and hot food vendors represent the bulk of charcoal consumption: a study carried out in 1989 by the Center for the Promotion of Female Workers estimates that there are nearly 80,000 sale points of food products in Port-au-Prince, of which 20,000 consist of small “manjé kwit" restaurants (one for eight households). Even if these figures are overestimated, they show the informal sector’s importance in the capital. The household survey estimates that charcoal consumption linked to home-based productive activities of this sort accounts for 20% of total residential consumption: thus in Port- au-Prince, about 40,000 tons of charcoal are consumed by these activities annually, bringing the total consumption of charcoal in the capital to 200,000 tons/year. 120 The BME's 1987 census identifies 836 bakeries (146 in Port-au-Prince) and 113 dry- cleaners (94 in Port-au-Prince). Some of these companies have switched from kerosene to gas (approximately 30 bakeries and 13 dry-cleaners): hence 95% of the bakeries and 90% of the dry- cleaners in Haïti consume firewood exclusively. Total consumption, respectively, is estimated as -_ 24,000 and 10,000 tons of wood. . Residential C ‘ 121 Various activities have been undertaken to assess rural fuel consumption, generally within the framework of reforestation projects. They show that firewood is almost exclusively the only fuel used in rural areas for cooking food and related activities. Vzrious estimates of the quantities consumed give figures converging around 500 kg/year of firewood per capita. In most cases, this wood is gathered free of charge by the peasants on their land; in certain regions, however, especially in large agricultural zones where sugar cane or ‘vetiver" are cultivated, rural marketing of firewood is beginning to appear, sometimes even for residential uses. The use of [page 24] -9- charcoal is relatively limited and concentrated in a few areas with large charcoal production tiviti Consumption by Small Industry 12 In 1985 there were 473 "guildives" and “moulins-guildives" (small companies producing sugar and drinking alcohol), mainly in the southwest peninsula of the country. Some of the moulin-guildives use bagasse from sugar cane and more modern guildives use diesel, but most of these small industries use large wood. This is also the case with 31 essential oil factories; a few more than half use firewood for their oil extraction process. It is estimated that in total, the annual wood consumption of these small enterprises is 130,000 tons and 30,000 tons, respectively. Woodfuel Resources Forest Resources 13 . The extent of Haitïs forest resources is not well-known; the last estimation was based on aerial photographs taken in 1978, and comprised only natural forest formations. À World Bank environmental study (BDPA) undertook an evaluation of forest resources based on the 1982 land use map which was established using the aerial views from 1978 (see Table 1.5). As this map -was not created specifically for forestry needs, the estimates which are drawn from it -- the most complete and most precise of all existing estimates -- remain at best approximate, even according to the authors of the map. Still, it is possible to note the importance of fallow land and tree crops as standing inventory for biomass, and probably the principal source of wood in Haïti [page 25] . -10- lable 1,5: Biomess Stending Stocks in 1988 Ares Volume ‘ (1000 he) (X) (1000 m3) (X) Broed- Leaf forest dense 16 1% 2100 6x : dogredod 50 a 2500 5x regeneration 80 3x 3200 & Pine forest dense 8 ox 1200 2x open æ 1x 600 1x very open & LL 520 x Agro-pastural forest prosspie foreat $ ox 250 1x shrubs (dense) 100 “x 2500 sx shrubs (open) 185 7 2405 sx Nangroves 15 w 52 1x Dense tree crops 170 6x 5100 10x (fruit trees, coffoe) Open tree crops 400 LL: 6400 13% Others Cherbaceous 1682 61X 10095 20x crops, short rotation fatlows, savannes, rocks, etc.) ‘ TOTAL 2769 100% 37395 762 Saurce: BDPA, 1989 . . Charcoal Supply Networks 124 Charcoal is distributed through an extremely decentralized urban retail and wholesale network. In the greater Port-au-Prince region (Port-au-Prince, Delmas, Carrefour, and Pétionville), there are an estimated 3000 sales points, as presented in Table 16. There are nearly 200 large warehouses with capacity for more than 50 bags and, at the other end of the scale, nearly 1500 mostly female, small retailers (the marketing of charcoal, both at the wholesale and retail levels, is carried out mostly by women). Much of the charcoal is sold in the markets, including the wharfs, which comprise nearly 3/4 of the market for sales in bags. [page 26] -11- Jable 16: Chercoel retail posts counted In Port-au-Prince Less then Nore Nuber of retail posts bag 1to10 11t050 then 50 Total % Port-au-Prince 749 a77 280 117 1,423 6 Carrefour 282 1% 151 & SN 26 * Delmas 119 37 24 2 18 98 Pétionviile s7 # 3 2 186 5 Morkets set 283 309 151 132% 57 Shopa 3 15 10 3 si 2 Aiong the strest 0 LT 19 1 = 4% Along the road 608 0 0 0 603 26 Total counted 1,207 iæ «58 465 2,32 100 x 52 21 2 7 10 Totel estimated 1,800 520 500 180 3,000 * & 17 17 6 10 Sources BME, 1959 . 125 Approximately 37% offthe charcoal consumed in the capital is transported by boat from the ports of the two peninsulas und from Gonaïve island; the remaining 63% is delivered by ‘ truck or other various modes of road transport. The practice of “charbon-provision" which refers to charcoal transported in passenger vehicles to escape regulation by public officials -- a practice tolerated by the Forestry Service up to a limit of 10 bags -- is widespread. About 15% of the charcoal supply enters the city by this means. Charcoal generally is delivered by rural merchants (usually female, referred to as "madame Saras”) who hire transport to come and sell charcoal in the city (see Figure 1.1). 126 Charcoal production, entirely done with traditional methods, has been the object of | only some limited investigations. The charcoal producers use small capacity stacks (5 to 10 bags) of various forms (*parasol", circular, or rectangular "bateau" kilns). The observed yield by weight are quite high (20%) in areas with larger-scale production, but it seems that yields are lower in areas where carbonization activity recently has been established. As there is very little quantitative data, a campaign to take measurements from a representative sample of kilns is very much needed, [page 27] -.12- Eigure Li: Charcoal supply systems in Haiti according to Stevenson (1985) | a | VN = = | [page 28] . -13- . 127 4 comparison of two maps, one created in 1980 (Atlas CNRS 1985), the other in 1990 based on information obtained from various surveÿs conducted during this study, shows how charcoal production has become widespread throughout Haïti The extension of charcoal production dates priraarily from 1986, when public control over forest exploitation in Haïti disappeared for all practical purposes. . 128 The origin zones of charcoal delivered to Port-au-Prince in 1980 and in 1990 are shown in Table 1.7; the results of a revised count of the volumes of .: arcoal entries in Port-au- Prince are also given in Annex IV. A progressive diversification of supply to the capital can be seen; to the traditional production zones in the northwest and the south have been added new zones, notably the Grande Anse (southwest peninsula) and the Central Plateau. There are no longer hardly any zones in the country, with the exception perhaps of the far northeast, where charcoal is not produced for Port-au-Prince (see maps for 1980 and 1990 in Annex XIV). Isble 1,7: Production areas of Charcoal since 1979 ° In percentage Department 1979 1985 1990 - horth West 50 3 2 South 30 3 2 Central 10 15% Li Gonave 10 3 5 Grende-Anse 0 - 13 South Eent 0 9 3 West 0 4 26 Artibonite 0 - 13 North 0 0 4 * Inctuding Grande-Anse ** including Artibonite Source: Karl Voltaire, 1979 University of Haine, 1986 Supply Mi reins and Revenues 1.29 The cost to the residential buyer of charcoal in Port-au-Prince, when sold by the bag, is about 1 Gourde/kg: each bag costs 40 Gourdes and weighs on average 38 kilograms. When sold in small quantities ("lots") with unit value varying between 0.5 and 1.5 Gourdes, charcoal costs on average 25% more (1.25 Gourdes/kg). In pots or baskets, the cost of better quality charcoal ("gayak” wood) can even reach 2 Gourdes/kg (see Annex X). In the other cities, charcoal is a little less expensive: sold by the bag, it costs about 0.7 Gourde/kg in main cities such as Les Cayes or Cap Haïtien, 0.5 Gourdes in smaller towns such as Gros Morne or Camp Perrin (southwest [page 29] 14. 130 The charcoal producer’s share of the retail price has decreased unremittingly; this is related to the general stagnation of income in Haïtÿs rural areas. However, a "professional" producer places a value of 1.5 Gourde/hour on his work, which is comparable to the income of a peasant (8 to 9 Gourdes/day) and around 30% higher than the rate of a day laborer (6 Gourdes for a 5 to 6 hour day, see Annex 10). 131 Although some wholesalers and transporters have rather large sales figures from marketing charcoal, basically because of the large volumes concerned (a truck making 100 trips annually can generate a net annual income of $10,000 to $15,000), the margins for transporters, wholesalers and retailers conform to the standards generally found in networks for wood and charcoal. 132 On the basis of information collected during various surveys, the transport price for charcoal is about 0.1 Gourde/day/kilometer (regression analysis performed on a dozen loads delivered by road, and about 50 statements made by transporters). Taking into account the ‘transport costs in Haïti, which fluctuate between $1.1 and $2 per km for a larger trucks according to the state -- paved or unpaved — and topography of the roadway (see Annex X), the transporter earns a net margin of approximately 30% to 40%. The urban intermediaries (wholesalers and retailers) earn a gross cumulative margin of 25% of the retail price (see Table 1.8). | Iable 1,8: Charcoel price Structure Gourdes/Bag (d) Gourdes/Ton x 1. Producer/charcoaler/col lector price 16-17 368-446 35-42,5 2. Trensport to Port-au-Prince (a) 6-9 158-236 15-22.5 3. Tex 1 26 2.5 4. Intermediaries/other mergins 5-6 151-158 12.5-15 S. Wholesaier purchase price (1+2+366) 28-30 736-788 7-75 6. vholesaler margin (b) 5-6 131-158 12.5-15 7. Reteîler margin (sale by bag) 5-6 131-158 12.5-15 8. Average price per bag « 1050 100 9. Retailer's additional margin (c) 8-10 210-263 20-25 Notes: (Ca) including loading/unioading cost. (b) Vhotesaler's margin can be 6+7 when the sholesaler sella directly to consumers. , (c) Sale în small quentities (“Lot®, basket, pot, etc.). (d) Bag of 35 kg in average. Sources Surveys ESNAP/BNE/PAUD/OLADE of 67 charcoal transporters În the North-west, South-uest and West regions. Wood Supply Network 133 Because transport costs are high relative to the sales price of fuelwood, the supply networks for this fuel are considerably shorter than those for charcoal. Thus, a large part of the supply for bakeries in Port-au-Prince comes from nearby “mornes" (small isolated hills) and from [page 30] -15- areas close to the Central Plateau; in Gonaïves, wood is supplied from the mangroves. Firewood trucks headed for the capital usually follow routes which allow them to avoid official controls. The guidives and essential oil factories usually are supplied with wood from fruit trees (mangoes, avocadoes), as these trees often are judged useless or too numerous by the peasants since the eradication of pigs. Petroleum Product Supply | 134 Liquid petroleum products are imported by SITCO (Shell International), Exxon and Texaco Trader from refineries operating in the region. Kerosene normally comes from Curacao from a former Shell refinery which now is operated by a subsidiary of Pétroleos de Venezuela. Products are transported by General Purpose tankers with 36,000 to 40,000 ton capacity, which then continue on towards the Bahamas, 135 Propane gas furnished by SITCO to two distribution companies, Tropigaz and Haïti Gaz, comes from Punta Cardon (Venezuela), Mexico, or the United States. Gas is transported to 30 cents/gallon, equivalent to about $150/ton (see para. 3.47). 136 With regard to propane storage, Tropigaz has three tanks, one with 30,000 gallon capacity, bought from Esso in 1953, and two others with 63,000 gallon capacity, installed in 1978. In addition, Haïti Gaz owns a unit with 30,000 gallon capacity. Thus the total storage capacity is + low (400 tons in water, Le. 320 tons of gas), and is only sufficient to guarantee a little less than 15 days of supply, with frequent shortages of 1 or 2 days. Tropigaz also has a bottling plant with three | filling lines, with à total capacity of 8000 gallons per day (16 tons/day), also quickly approaching saturation. 137 Butane gas also is supplied by SITCO, mainly from Venezuela, and resold to Sodigaz by Shell Haïti. In 1988, Shell made investments of $800,000 for distributing Bip stoves and butane. The investments included: (a) reception facilities and two storage units with a total actual capacity of 130 tons (150 . nominal) ($600,000) (b) a filling center with capacity of 900 to 1000 bottles per day (per cycle of 8 hours), or approximately 3000 bottles daily for three cycles ($100,000). (c) various preliminary marketing studies, including a study of the target client (see para. 3.53) ($100,000). [page 31] .16- 138 Both bottling plants for propane and butane are located in Port-au-Prince, which absorbs the quasi-totality of butane consumption and most of propane consumption. Propane and butane bottles are transported to other main cities by trucks and sold by distributors at a price reflecting additional transport cost (for instance the refilling of a 12 kg propane bottle costs about 40% more in Cap Haïtien than in Port-au-Prince). 1.39 The Shell group plans to restructure its storage and bottling system in the medium term to face forecast demand of butane and propane at their current prices. It is possible that : marketing of propane then would be dropped in favor of increased marketing of butane as part of a Caribbean butane strategy designed by headquarters, which projects the creation of a major storage center of butane in the area (possibly in Puerto Rico). Institutional E j 140 Among the major public institutions concerned with the sector, the Bureau of Mines and Energy (BME), through its Directorate of Energy Resources (DER), is responsible for (1) promotion of national energy resources and, more generally, of all forms of energy which could contribute to the country’s development; (ii) rational energy use; and (iii) environmental protection in relation to mining and quarries. The DER is staffed by nine professionals and had an annual budget of 1 million Gourdes in 1988. Its activities include management of various energy projects in cooperation with French assistance and OLADE: energy statistics, development of solar and wind energy, improved stoves, and use of bagasse. The DER currently is the recipient of a program to strengthen its operations, financed by PNUD and OLADE (Energy Sector Strengthening Program), of which this study is a component. One of the main objectives of the program will be to prepare a National Energy Plan. 141 At the Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development (MARNDR), the Forest Resources Service (FRS) is responsible for protecting, managing and | developing national forest resources. In particular, it is responsible for implementing the National Forest Project, which will enter its second phase in 1992 (Forest and Environmental Protection Project). However, as with many rural development activities in Haïti, most of the reforestation activities are carried out by numerous non-governmental organizations (NGO), both Haitian and foreign, because of difficulties encountered at the MARNDR such as: limited operating budget, lack of coordination, lack of policy continuity and lack of motivation among the employees. __. 14 With the exception of public installations for security stocks of diesel and kerosene, the Haitian petroleum sector is totally private. Three companies share the market: Texaco, Esso and Shell. The latter is the only company which markets LPG. Within te Ministry of Industry and Commerce, the Bureau for Petroleum Product Supply (BAPP) supervises the sector and [page 32] -17- regulates the price of liquid fuels; in practice, although BAPP is conscious of the distortions in the price of gas (as shown in the third chapter), its resources and means to act are limited, Charcoal Regulation and Taxation 143 A decree dated October 1987 grants MARNDR the ability to authorize and control the cutting of wood and also gives wood-consuming companies a period of 6 months to substitute wood by other fuels. In practice, this decree has not been applied. On the contrary, all control over forest exploitation — and charcoal exploitation in particular - has disappeared since 1986. This engenders two main negative consequences for the sector: the universalization of charcoal production throughout the country and the slowdawn of price increases for charcoal. 1.44 There is a tax on the transport of firewood and charcoal, levied at the district level. In addition, the forestry service has a number of checkpoints, which operate with unequal degrees of effectiveness (see map no. 2 for Port-au-Prince in Annex XII). Transport permits certifying payment of thé transport tax and the number of corresponding bags (often underestimated) are verified by forestry agents at the checkpoints. The official tax on charcoal, originally 0.25 Gourdes, has risen since October 1989 to 1 Gourde per bag. The forestry service records show that 368,000 and 513,000 bags were checked during the fiscal years (Ociober to September) 1987/88 and 1988/88, respectively. This amounts to respectively 14,000 and 20,000 tons of charcoal, i.e. less than 10% of the charcoal which in fact was marketed in Port-au-Prince. 145 Special effort is being made to improve the monitoring of the volumes transported and to improve collection of the charcoal tax, with positive results as shown in Table 1.9. Despite these improvements, there is room for much more progress: an estimated $800,000 additional revenues in charcoal taxes could be collected by the State if controi was fully efficient. The firewood tax theoretically is 1 gourde per piece of wood, in general 1 gourde per stere; in practice, it rarely is collected. ‘ Iable 1,9: Chgrooal Tex Revenues Total Monthly % of theoretic ° €x1000 Gourdes) revenue revue revenue 29 August - 15 Decenber 1988 48.8 13,9 2 . 3 Jenuary - 30 March 1989 75.0 25.0 n 40 April - 11 suly 1989 166.2 48.7 8 11 July - 31 October 1989 150.9 40.8 7 31 October - 29 December 1989 161.6 70.7 12 Source: HARNDR, Forestry Project. 146 Besides the official taxes, there is an entire unofficial system of levies, the revenues from which do not go to State Treasury. This was true before 1986 in the case of charcoal exploitation, where the merchant often had to pay local authorities more than 3 times the value of [page 33] -18- the official tax. This is still the case for charcoal transport; the transporter must make a contribution, either in charcoal or money, at various checkpoints along his route. Thus his real net margin is diminished, . Tree Planting Strategies 147 Numerous reforestation projects are underway in Haïti, mainly as part of programs for non-governmental assistance to rural areas: an environmental study (IDA/BDPA) catalogued more than 80 projects aimed at limiting deforestation (soil conservation, seedlings, plantations, etc.) A Tropical Forestry Action Plan (TFAP) will be formulated during 1991/92 under the supervision of PNUD and FAO in order to coordinate the different projects under a common policy framework. With regard to plantations, two approaches have been attempted, with very different results: large plantations and agroforestry. 148 The use of large plantations as a strategy for fighting deforestation was attempted under mainly the Operation Double Harvest (ODH) financed by CARE, one of four components in the Agroforestry Outreach Project (AOP) financed by USAID, which has met largely with failure; as a result, the large plantation option has been completely abandoned at present. The ODH sought to implement large peri-urban plantations on land belonging to major landholders: this project was halted in 1987, mainly because of a lack of interest on the part of the landholders. Moreover, the National Forestry Project (IDA Credit) included an energy plantation pilot component, which was based on creation of planted perimeters at three sites (covering a total 350 ha) and on management of part of the Pins forest (for an area covering nearly 6,000 ha). Despite positive results with regard to strengthening the FRS and preparation of the second phase of the project, the results were relatively disappointing for the pilot plantations, largely because of the lack of counterpart funds, negative reactions from the rural population, and the influence of external factors (climate, livestock). Because of the lack of financial profitability of such plantations, the second phase of this project is therefore oriented towards agro-sylviculture formulas established at the level of rural communities and management of forestry resources. 149 . The objective of the agroforestry approach is to promote various types of tree planting integrated into Haïtian cultivation practices. The AOP Project in the northwest of the country and the "Pyebwa* Project which was implemented by a network of more than 400 NGOs in the rest of the country, have been quite successful with very small-scale rural forestry projects. According to the BDPA, approximately 8 million trees have been planted annually as part of these projects over the past 10 years. There have been several evaluations of the success rate for planting schemes of this type, with varying results -- the trees’ survival rate is 80% according to CARE, 33% according to a more rigorous evaluation carried out by the Pyebwa Project, and between 50 and 60% according to other project evaluations. A realistic tree survival rate after one year could be considered 40%: thus about 3 million planted trees survive each year. By comparing the cost of the AOP Project (US$ 3 million annuallÿ) and the other main projects engaged in this type of * planting with the number of surviving trees, the cost per surviving tree in these agroforestry plantations is estimated at US$ 1.5 (however, some estimates go as high as $10 per surviving tree). [page 34] -19- These figures only include the cost of international foreign aid, and the cost of the land and the labor costs should be added to obtain total cost. | Improved Stoves 1.50 Several small projects to distribute metal improved charcoal stoves have been (a) Between 1983 and 1988, the first National Forestry Project included a $90,000 component for distributing improved stoves financed by the Canadian Center for International Research and Development (CIRD). This project, implemented by BME, consisted of evaluation of existing traditional cookstoves, development of adapted improved stoves (BME models) and trial dissemination in two small cities on the central plateau, Lascahobas and Belladère (30 stoves were distributed), (b) In 1989, the BME received assistance from OLADE for a new pilot program to ‘distribute nearly 600 portable cookstoves (BME model), with total financing of $15,000. A preliminary phase included developing a working set for the craftsmen (tools, templates) and training a dozen craftsmen. Then, in association with two NGOs and with technical assistance from BIT for training, the BME opened three workshops in Port-au-Prince and recruited six craftsmen. Accordiug to expected results of the pilot program, an anticipated 7200 stoves - sufficient to supply about 5% of the households in the capital - will be distributed by mid-1991, under additional financing of $15,000. (c) Atthe beginning of 1989, the French Association of Volunteers for Progress (AFVP) opened two training workshops targeted at the “manjé kwit” market (small restaurants) and trained ten stoves craftsmen. The trainees began by producing a commercial line consisting of four model stoves of varying sizes (the BME model with feet): 500 stoves have been sold since September 1989, but mainly for domestic use, . (d) Finally, some larger wood-fueled models were implemented in restaurants in public institutions, with the technical assistance of the Renewable Energy Development Institute (REDI). 151 Thus, approximately US$ 120,000 has been invested in improved stoves (not counting the various missions by experts), and about 600 portable cookstoves actually have been disseminated outcomes to these trials. The most important of these is the design of a model adapted to the needs of more modest Haitian households. This model competes with the traditional round stove, which is used by 2/3 of all households. It has a satisfactory efficiency (30% in theory, and about 25% in actual use — representing a 30% theoretic improvement in efficiency over the traditional [page 35] -20- . stove), and it appears to be well accepted by the consumers (reasonable level of sales by the AFVP, positive reactions from groups during market testing carried out for the study). 152 Another important outcome, obtained through the activities of BME and AFVP, | is the result of comparisons of various methods for manufacturing the stoves and organizing their production and sales. The BME'’s approach was to employ three groups of two artisans and to manufacture the stoves out of sheets of new galvanized steel, for a net production cost of $7 (in fact the stoves are marketed for $S to $6 a piece). The AFVP decided to use sheet metal made from material recovered from drums and junked cars, and to let the artisans operate autonomously once they were trained, The sales pr'ce of the stoves thus constructed is $4 for the producer, $5 for the retailer. Given experiences with this type of project in other countries, the AFVP approach, which depends on the autonomous initiative of the craftsmen and an initial market penetration using low cost products (possible through use of recycled manufacturing materials), seems preferable, However, if a shortage of recoverable material arises (likely to cause the price of recovered materials to increase), the use of new sheet metal would be necessary.2/ Besides, a demand for improved stoves constructed from new sheet metal is likely to exist already because of their superior durability or for aesthetic reasons. Substitution | 1.53 Efforts to substitute other fuels for wood and charcoal, namely kerosene and LPG, concern mainly the domesti: sector. A program also has been undertaken for small businesses and rural enterprises, although with limited success. 1.54 The domestic use of kerosene for cooking is relatively limited. No promotion programs have been undertaken, especially by the Government, and thus there is only a limited but dynamic marketing of the product by the private sector (approximately 1500 stoves sold annually). One company, Haïti Métal, manufactures and markets the stoves, which are sold for between $20 (one burner, no stand) and $43 (two burners, with a stand). In 1989, this market totaled 1140 units, with more than 90% of the two burner model. Other companies market stoves imported from Venezuela (Haïti Gaz) and from southeast Asia (Eiectrotostore, with 200 stoves sold in 1989). 155 With regard to the small businesses and industries, the former National Bank for Agricultural and Industrial Development (NBAID), with assistance from the European Community), introduced a program to substitute wood with petroleum products. Any company which wanted a loan had to switch to a fuel other than wood. About twenty bakeries switched to kerosene, and a few others to propane, under vhis plan. The current of new sheet metal appears excessive (sales price nearly double the CIF à À eme as ter canne (Bebe ler Garmple) allowine Lerge metal workshops to directly import sheet metal in order to mass produce and sel improved stoves does not seem viable, as distribution of the stoves (which is difficult to organize) certainly would cost more than the resulting savings on material costs. [page 36] | -21- 1.56 Propane gas. Tropigaz imports propane, and distributes it along with another company, Haïti Gaz, in four sizes of bottles -- 5 kg (a very limited number), 12.5 kg bottles (most of the market), 25 kg and 50 kg -— and in bulk (1000 kg) for large companies. In 1989, Tropigaz came under the control of Shell Haïti, when the Caribbean and Latin American operations of Tropigaz were acquired by Shell. 1.57 In 1986, Tropigaz made an inventory of its bottles, which numbered 66,000 in the 12.5 kg size and 25,000 in the 50 kg size. Taking into account all sales since 1986, equivalent estimates for 1990 would total 85,000 and a little less than 30,000 respectively. This averages out to about 2.1 bottles per user (assuming 50,000 propane consumers, of whom just under 80% reside in the capital). 1.58 Various local firms distribute imported cookers fueled by propane gas. The least expensive come from Latin America (the "Llama azul" from Venezuela, for example) and vary in price from $50 to $70. Given the purchase cost for a bottle ($73.4 for a 12.5 kg bottie, without the pressure regulator), the minimal initial investment is $120 to $150, a very high cost for most urban ‘ households. Only several hundred cookers at the lower end of the scale (cooker without an oven) are sold annually. Tropigaz also has commercial cookers for institutional restaurants and small food vendors (between $400 and $500, plus the regulator and the 50 kg bottle, ie. an initial investment of $550 to $800), 1.59 Butane Gas. In March 1989, Shell began marketing the “Bip Tichéri" stove through the Sodigaz company. This is a single burner butane cookstove which already is distributed in various West African countries. The stoves and containers are bought in France at ADG (Camping Gaz) and the stand is manufactured in Haïti. Shell has received government support through a ‘balance of payments assistance agreement", signed in October 1989, which allows it to import materials under an exchange rate of 5 Gourdes per dollar. The agreement provides a total authorization of FF 30 million in 1990 (US$ 5.2 million) for importing bottles and stoves, renewable in subsequent years. An initial authorization was granted in December 1989 (FF 1,655 million, or about $280,000) to import 14,000 units, followed by a second authorization of FF 3 million (US$510,000) in May 1990 to import 25,000 units. 1f the 40% devaluation of the Gourde is taken into account, the subsidÿ accruing to the Bip program from the Haitian Government amounts to about US$300,000, equivalent to $8 per stove (see Table 1.10). [page 37] able 1,10: BIP Price . Import Import Exchange 40% over- Price Price for 5 valuation FF US$ Slaîtien Shaitien ‘ Burner si 5. 5.3 7.48 Customs and Adniniat- ° rativo duties 0.77 14.07 Pot support 3.25 3.25 Stove support 4.00 4.00 des 2.12 2.12 Equipment cost 29.27 37.3 Sodiges sale price 2.83 5.73 Sodigss margin 31.5 31,5 Retail price 37.5 37.5 Distribution margin 6.00 6.00 ° Exchange rate: USS1 = FF 5.8 Source: SHELL Haïti, June 1990. 1.60 Promotion of butane has been very successful: 32,400 portable stoves, 44,500 botties and 640 tons of gas (311,000 gallons) were sold in 14 months (between March 1989 and April 1990). The rhythm of portable stove has slowed down in May 1990 (only 500 stoves sold, as compared to a previous average of 2000/month) for two main reasons, according to project promoters: the price increase for the stove from $29.5 to $37.5 in February 1990, and also a certain exhaustion of the market, which initially was sustained by purchases made by institutions and businesses for their employees. However, butane penetration started again in 1991 with a 10% increase in the sales of gas when comparing the first semesters of 1991 and 1990, and a 20% increase when comparing the first two quarters of 1991. In addition, Shell intends to introduce the 6 kg butane bottle on the market, which should lead to a further increase in gas sales. 1.61 In the initial start-up phase, the company sold the stove-container combination to customers for a price $4 below its net cost at wholesale level. This was done to promote the distribution of the product; the loss was recovered by increasing the margin on the sales of butane by $0.50 per gallon. This inflated margin (it is difficult to label it a cross subsidy in the absence of | regulation of gas pricing) was a shrewd marketing decision for the companies: currently, every sale of a portable stove provides a guaranteed market of about 18 gallons annually, based on an average of 1.2 recharges per month. This represents a profit of $9/year, more than twice the $4 lost on each stove sale. Access to a advantageous exchange rate in addition to the increased price of the Bip portable stove, now selling for $37.5, has allowed the company to balance its sales price. Still, the price of butane remains at $3 per recharge. [page 38] -.23- 1.62 The Haïtian State sets the price of liquid petroleum products through its Petroleum Technical Committee, which consists of representatives from the Ministry of Industry and Commerce (through the BAPP), the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank, and the BME. The . margins for kerosene (price at the pump) are negotiated between the State, the petroleum companies, and the National Association of Petroleum Product Distributors (ANADIP). In April 1990, the margins were set at about 20% for the companies and 5% for the distributors; they appear reasonable compared ta countries with similar distribution networks. The companies receive a preferential exchange rate (5 Gourdes/US$1) when importing products, equivalent to a state subsidy of about 40% of the CIF value of the products. This preferential arrangement was only applied to LPG in January 1987; LPG is now imported at an exchange rate of 5 to 1. 163 Kerosene had not been taxed for many years in order to promote its use in the productive sector (bakeries, for example). However, this has given rise to problems related to competition with diesel fuel (fraudulent distribution and usage of kerosene). In October 1985, new taxes were applied ta kerosene, totalling nearly 35% of the -retail price, It should be noted, however, that in order to decrease the price to the consumers located in the provinces and in rural areas, kerosene is sold duty-free outside Port-au-Prince, in “yellow” gallon containers. The 50 cent/gallon value of detaxation pays in effect for the reusable empty container. About 500,000 gallons are sold in this manner each year, equivalent to a little less than 10% of the national consumption. ‘ 1.64 The prices of gas (propane and butane) are fixed by the two distribution companies, Shell for butane and Tropigaz (100% Shell owned) for propane, with formal notification given to the Ministry of Commerce. This de facto monopoly in the gas market leads to c.mulative margins for the petroleum company which seem to be high in relation with similar markets in other countries: in April 1990, the cumulative margins were 57% of the retail price of propane and 71% of the retail price for butane (47% for Shell Haïti and Sodigaz, and 24% for the retailer). The LPG tax was ended in March 1987. This decontrol and the drop in price, as well as the preferential exchange rate, accompanied by an intensive campaign launched by distributors, all incited a massive increase in gas sales (more than 75% since 1987), and in the sales of cooking equipment. [page 39] -24- IL MAIN ISSUES 2.1 The main issues affecting the household energy sector in Haiti must be taken into account when developing a household energy strategy. These are: (a) the environmental impact of woodfuel utilization on forest resources; (b) the impact on the balance of payments of encouraging the use of imported fuels as substitutes; (c) existing distortions in the gas market; fd) the essential role of charcoal production in the rural economy; (e) the weakness of the institutional framework. | 22 The current estimate of forest resources drawn from available data (see para. 1.23) was established using projected growth rates for forest formations and wood consumption. Several factors make this approach very imprecise and limit the extent to which the rate of deforestation can be evaluated: (a) there are only extremely fragmentary data on the growth of natural forest formations (the evaluation of yields from the secondary shrub formations used in most charcoal production is based on unverifiable hypotheses in the current situation) and even on the growth of planted trees. (b) the impacts of reforestation using isolated trees or rural micro-plantation is not quantified; (c) the exact role of woodfuel consumption in the deforestation process within Haiti has not been identified clearly and quantitatively. This is particularly the case for self consumption in rural households: it is difficult to quantify wood consumption in supply/demand balances when the source of this consumption is felled wood or wood gathered from the wastes of land clearings or tree pruning. [page 40] -25- (d) the impact of other phenomena such as the subdivision of agricultural plots into small parcels, the increase in the cultivation of food crops, and the reduction in cultivation of cash crop is difficult to evaluate and quantify.2/ 23 Although in certain cases environmental damage caused by intensive charcoal exploitation can clearly be demonstrated, charcoal exploitation is only one of the causes, and probably not the principal one, of deforestation in Haïti Among other causes of deterioration of Haïts environment are: (a) _ increased demographic pressure and its corollaries: the subdivision of agricultural plots, farming on lands not appropriate for agriculture; (b) poorly adapted and harmful agricultural techniques combined to extensive tree felling; (c) insecurity regarding land tenure discourages the use of cultivation practices which maintain soil fertility, and on the contrary encourages overexploitation of the land and discourages investments; (d) the lack of capital and income for the small peasants: they generally must fall back on subsistence farming of food crops, using very erosive production techniques, and have recourse ta the production of charcoal as a complementary source of monetary income. 24 Degradation of the environment has immediately perceptible effects, especially with regard to erosion, loss of sediments, and decreased agricultural yields. Thus, overexploitation of the Haitis ligneous potential does not constitute only a decapitalization of available wood: It also has secondary effects on erosion and alters local hydrology. 25 It is difficult to estimate the rate of deforestation in Haiti given the lack of recent data and reliable historical comparisons. According to the BDPA study, the estimated forest cover (degraded ot dense broad leaf forests and pine forests) was only 220,000 hectares in 1988, amounting to less than 10% of the productive biomass surfaces and less than 30% of the wood capital, The greater uncertainty surrcunds evaluation of wood resources available from non-forest sources: shrub formations, tree crops, herbaceous craps, savannas, etc -- ie. 90% of the surfaces concerned. The sensitivity to error for these projections is rather large (see Annex I): all other things being equal, if the 1978 figures represent an overestimate of 25%, the forest cover would Furthermore, thes. phenomena can have apposite effects. For example, the reduction in 2 the number of coffee plantations can deprive some areas of an important wood resource {pruned cuttings from coffee and shade trees or wood obtained from felling old plantations), whereas the subdivision of large parcels usually increase the length of tree hedges which are also an important, and regular source of firewood and timber. [page 41] -2%6- disappear entirely by 1992 (an event which, fortunately, seems unlikely); if on the other hand they were underestimated by 25%, there are sufficient trees in Haiti to satisfy the firewood and charcoal needs for the next 20 years without jeopardizing renewal of the resource (independently of other causes of degradation of the resource). 26 It would prove unfounded to question the consensus on deforestation in Haiti, or even to reject the conclusions concerning the gradual disappearance of resources. Yet it is unfortunate that the lack of reliable information on wood resources and on the impacts of firewood and charcoal consumption on deforestation makes it impossible to precisely design and measure interventions needed in this domain, especially for charcoal substitution. There are serious increasing petroleum imports; thus environmental justification of such actions must be carefully supported. 2.7 Experience with other projects -- mainly those implemented in West Africa -- proves that detailed inventories often provide data which is very different from the first estimates of the resources condition and availability, especially for the non-forest resources (isolated trees, wood from fallow land, wood from pruning) which provide the core source-of wood energy. This brings to fore the importance and urgency of undertaking an inventory of wood resources, based on aerial . photos and on-site crosschecks as planned under the IDA Forestry and Environmental Protection Project (probable start in 1992). 28 Nonetheless, it is clear that deforestation in Haiti is an uncontestable reality, even if the scope of its causes and effects largely exceeds the basic problem of wood energy supply and demand. Thus one of the fundamental objectives of an energy strategy for households is to slow the deforestation phenomenon by reducing the pressure caused by woodfuels consumption. ‘Impact on the Balance of Payments of Promoting Petroleum Substitutes for Wood and Charcoal 29 The large energy plantations have encountered so many obstacles that this option basically has been abandoned in favor of the agroforestry approach. However, will the latter be able to ensure reconstitution of forest resources sufficient for preserving the national forest endowment? Under the current assumptions about the resource, it appears doubtful: the current rhythm of agroforestry tree planting, already quite sustained, would have to be multiplied by a factor of 7 or 8 in order to obtain nearly 23 million surviving plants each year (see figures in Annex I). This effort would cost approximately $30 million per year, based on the current costs of such operations. 2.10 Thus actions which target consumption ofwoodfuels, essentially in urban areas would be needed: energy conservation, substitution by petroleum fuels. Under the same assumpions as cited above, a drastic reduction in charcoal consumption would be needed to prevent the obliteration of Haitian forest resources. Even if charcoal consumption were cut in half by 2000 - - a considerable task - with continued reduction efforts after 2000, this would only delay the [page 42] -27- theoretic disappearance of the forest by about 15 years. In order for the resource to be maintained in its current state, an almost complete termination of charcoal consumption in the capital and main cities of Haiti within the next ten years would be needed (Annex I). Therefore it is clear that interventions are needed not only to conserve charcoal but also to substitute it. 2.11 It is possible to estimate the impact on the trade balance in terms of imported gas or kerosene at current CIF prices if petroleum fuels were to be substituted for an equivalent level . of charcoal consumption.3/ Consumption of charcoal in Port-au-Prince is estimated at 200,000 tons (consumption by households and the small productive sector) in 1990, and at 100,000 additional tons in other urban areas. The annual cost to the country of importing gas or kerosene in quantities the equivalent of the current urban consumption of 300,000 tons of charcoal would amount to abour US$35 million (with theoretic CIF prices, see Table 3.2), equivalent to about 25% of Haitis export receipts in 1990. Thus promotion of charcoal substitution potentially could be a very costly solution for the country, and would only be justified if charcoal exploitation presented an irreversible threat to the environment. 2.12 Gas imports and most of gas marketing in Haïti -- for both propane and butane - - are carried out by Shell and its various subsidiaries (Sodigaz, Tropigaz). Although other pétroleum companies appeared interested in this market, they have not expiicitly voiced their interest, probably because of the country's difficult political situation. The de facto monopoly inherited by Shell presents several problems for the country and constitutes a major handicap to the development of gas as a substitute for charcoal, - : 2.13 One of these problems is the current storage capacity. In the case of propane, it is extremely limited: a little less than 15 days of storage, which often leads to depletion of stocks. Because storage is limited, deliveries must be made in small quantities, at considerable transport costs which burden the products CIF price (in 1990, the transport costs practically as much as the gas). In fact, although the Haitian Government has invested in storage for other strategic products ‘such as diesel and fuel oil, it has no security stock facilities for gas. Nor do the petroleum companies plan in the short term to invest in new storage or new bottling facilities. 2.14 The main problem involves the establishment of gas prices (see paragraph 3.46 for more details). In a monopoly situation and in the absence of state regulation, the margins established by the companies seem to be very high: between 60% and 70% of the retail price, split Letween the importers and the distributors. By comparison, the combined margins for gas in a 3/ Taking into account the fuels calorific values and the efficiencies of related stoves, it is estimated that 1 kilo of kerosene is equivalent to about 3 kg of charcoal, and 1 kg of gas is equivalent to 3.7 kg of charcoal. At current CIF prices (respectively 0.68 and 0.77 Gourdes per gallon), kerosene or gas imports to substitute for charcoal would contribute a nearly identical weight to the trade [page 43] .28: number of countries rarely represent more than 30% of the sales price, even in cases where the markets are very limited (West Africa, for instance). In the case of a landlocked country such as Burkina Faso, which has a very small market (nearly 800 tons, versus 7000 tons in Haiti) and where gas is transported by road from the coast for a distance of more than 1000 kilometers, butane gas taxed at a rate of more than 20% sold for about US$ 1/kg in 1989. This is equivalent to the untaxed retail price of the butane sold along Haïtis coast. : 2.15 Throughout many countries, the State used taxes and perequation to absorb the much of the profit produced by the drop in international oil prices (up to August 1990). In the case of Haïti, however, it was the importer who apparently benefitted most.4/ This distorted situation is not a fact which can be separated from the analysis of the sector, as it has direct implications for the problems of comparing costs of household fuels and on taxation of petroleum products 2.16 Three important factors characterize Haïtiÿ’s rural milieu: (a) increasing demographic pressure on agricultural lands, due to increases in the population density from 300 to 400 inhabitants/km’ between 1965 and 1985 (whereas in some areas, estate lands and large agricultural domains have been abandoned), (b) a decrease in the size of cultivated land parcels: the percentage of cultivated parcels measuring one "carreau" (1.29 ha) or less increased from 40 % to 70% between 1950 and 1971, when the last agricultural census was taken, (c) a decrease in the value added of agriculture per unit from $185 in 1965 to $172 in . 1985 (1976 constant prices), a decrease which undoubtedly has intensified in the last years. . 2.17 In a situation like this, any energy strategy which has as an objective the reduction charcoal production activities must take into account the economic importarce of this activity in rural areas and the social repercussions which could be brought about due to the loss of income for some producers. Annual revenues in the charcoal sector amount to about $50 million, more than in the electricity sector, more than half those of the petroleum sector and about one third the industrial value added in Haiti. This also represents an annual injection of $15 million by the urban consumers into Haitis rural economy (at the level of production and of rural marketing of charcoal). 4/ Under current conditions, with few investments and a quite precarious supply system, the small propane market in Haiti provides almost ss much margin to the petroleur company and the related distributors as the combined propane sales provide to the different importers and distributors operating in the Dominican Republic, which has a market 12 times as large (about 100,000 tons/year). [page 44] -.29- 2.18 In terms of employment, it is estimated that more than 150,000 people are involved in charcoal supply from rural production up to retail marketing; at least 67,000 of these are charcoal producers 5/. Charcoal production is an income source for a large number of urban distributors: : for the small neighborhood retailer, charcoal marketing constitutes a non-negligible complementary income source, and for certain wholesalers and transporters the income generated is substantial, 2.19 Charcoal production also has become a crucial source of income for the economic survival of some areas which are especially disadvantaged, and more and more, for a substantial portion of HaïtŸs rural areas. The subdivision of farm land, the eradication of pig husbandry, the abandonment of coffee cultivation in favor of food crops are all factors which encourage the peasant to turn towards one of the few activities from which monetary income is assured: charcoal production. . 2.20 ‘In the district of Anse Rouge, one of the areas in which charcoal production has long been established, the forestry services estimate that there are 4000 charcoal producers and 2000 merchants (there often is overlap between the two activities). Most of the rural households and a large number of the urban households in that district are engaged in producing and marketing charcoal which, along with salt production, is the only possible activity. In other districts of the Artibonite or in the north of the country, such as Saint Michel l’Attalaye or Dondon, between 50% and 80% of the active rural population is engaged in charcoal production, and in other areas with better agricultural possibilities (northeast, southwest), between 20% and 30% of the population. 221 According to surveys of charcoal producers in the Artibonite and in the northwest of the country, charcoal income has become more important to the peasant than agricultural revenues (even though it is not possible to precisely estimate the very variable ratio between income from the two activities). In similar surveys undertaken in the south of the country, the money from charcoal generally only appears as an occasional source of income, except during drought periods. It is significant that this activity, generally the work of small peasants (as is still the case in the south) now is done in the north by medium and large peasants. This appropriation of charcoal production and marketing activities by the local petit-bourgeoisie (persons of influence, merchants) in the Artibonite and in the north of the country occurs at all levels, including charcoal collection and transport to consumption centers, whereas these activities are carried out by peasants « in the south. ‘ 5/ ne ven A PE A anne the total charcoal consumption by the average estimated production of a single charcoal producer. [page 45] -30- À Weak Institutional Context 22 The efficiency of the Haitian private sector varies according to the participants. The private sector has proven quite successful in case of charcoal marketing, which functions in a satisfactory manner witl.out large investments, and also in the case of butane promotion, which in three months had achieved its initial objectives for dissemination. Its efficiency has been less obvious in the case of kerosene; its promotion as a cooking fuel has not been successful. In most cookstoves is incumbent upon the private sector alone, with the assistance of and under the regulation of public authorities. | 223 Various indicators illustrate the specific institutional difficulties in Haiti, and above all the budgetary constraints faced by Haitian institutions. In order to operate satisfactorily, a central administration should have a central operating budget (minus salaries) equivalent to about half the total salaries. However, the 1988 operating budget for the central administration was situated at only one third of normal needs. The two ministries involved in the different aspects of the energy sector, the MARNDR (supervising ministry for the forestry sector) and the Ministry of Public Works, Transport and Communications (supervising ministry for the energy sector) find themselves in particularly critical conditions: these two ministries were forced to operate in * | 1987/88 with expenditure allocations equivalent respectively to only 10% and 12 % of their actual operating needs; while the BME, with a 7% ratio between operating expenses and salaries, was granted only 20% of its budgetary needs to work with. 224 Without funds to finance operatingand maintenance expenditures, the administration (such as the requirement that businesses switch from wood to other fuels), the lack of coordination between the various projects, the delays and the negligible results achieved in implementing programs in the past (such as the projects to distribute improved stoves), are examples of this, 225 A substantial number of activities financed by international aid tend to bypass public authorities, preferring the efficiency of local organizations, in particular the thick network of NGOs (minimum of 400) operating throughout Haïti. This solution, which is very advantageous for short- term and quick interventions and activities, gives rise to a certain number of problems when a long- term perspective is taken: dispersion of efforts, uncoordinated approaches, duplication of 226 Because of these problems, the government should make a renewed effort to fulfill its mandate by defining the directions and coordinating the actions taken for household energy. Given the weak institutional framework, it thus would be necessary to the extent possible: | (a) to concentrate strategy on a small number of components, to avoid dispersion of [page 46] -31- (b) to take into account the current weakmess of intervention means and plan for necessary strengthening of institutions (adequate coordination between the government and NGOs) and of logistics. 227 Whatever the degree of reliability in the information on the resource and on its evolution, the preceding paragraphs showed that none of the planned solutions up to the present - - forestry plantations, improved stoves, substitution fuels -- would be able to provide in and of itself the solution to the problems of degradation of woodfuel resources. related to its exploitation, and also to reducing specific consumption by the various wood and charcoal consümers and substitution with other fuels all appear complex and interdependent. It thus is necessary to incorporate all these items into a coordinated action program, which fully takes into account the various aspects, energy and forestry related, economic and social. Thus an energy strategy for the sector must be defined and implemented which simultaneously addresses the following needs: (a) to decrease the pressure on Haitian forestry resources, and more generally on the environment, caused by woodfuel consumption; () to supply at least cost stoves and energy fuels adapted to the needs and financial means of different categories of consumers; (©) to improve the efficiency of production, distribution and utilization of household fuels; (d) to preserve the interest of rural woodfuels producers, especially those for whom charcoal production is a main economic activity, by allowing them to exercise their activity in a more efficient framework or by assuring their reconversion. 229 Analysis of the situation allows several guiding principles of the strategy to be defined, which are the following: (8) take into account the characteristics of household energy demand; the strategy should be based on analysis of the actual market for fuels and stoves, take into . account consumer preferences and financial means in order to define solutions which are diversified and adapted to their needs. [page 47] -32- (b) define a pricing policy which reflects the economic costs of supply and distribution of household fuels, in a least cost approach for the country; (c) graduallÿ restore the financial balance of the sector through eliminating existing distortions. Through the means of preferential exchange rates, the Haitian economy subsidizes petroleum fuels and, since recently, portable gas stoves. In addition, under current pricing conditions for woodfuels, the smallholder owners of wood covered areas subsidize the price of charcoal to the benefit of the urban consumer by selling wood at a price generally lower than replacement costs: this is possible at the cost of forestry resource-mining production techniques, which induce degradation of the environment and of the rural economy in the medium term. (d) improve fiscal revenues from household fuels; this would allow at least partial self financing of investments in the energy sector. In fact, neither the current tax structure, nor the existing methods and efficiency to collect taxes are sufficient for the State to have resources to invest in improvements for energy supply and consumption. ‘ (e) focus interventions on a small number of essential themes: the importance of certain priority action themes, the urgency of an intervention at a large enough level and the difficulty of undertaking multiple interventions in the current institutional context all incite to limitating the of strategy to some major components. + (f) take advantage of all relevant organizations present in Haïti (NGOs, communal sections, institutions, associations) as co-implementors of the various strategy components. [page 48] .33- IL THE STRATEGY 3.1 In countries like Haïti where woodfuels consumption is dominant, a household energy strategy generally should be centered on two principal axes: (a) _ interventions on woodfuel supply-side: improved production and marketing of wood and especially charcoal; | (b) interventions on fuel demand-side, mainly through G) substituting wood and charcoal with other fuels, especially petroleum ‘ products; (ii) improving conditions for using wood and charcoal, in particular by the distribution of more efficient energy products. A. Interventions on Woodfuel Supply 32 In order to define the options for supply-side intervention, the present economic situation of charcoal exploitation must be analyzed. This analysis demonstrates the need for complementarity between demand-based and charcoal supply-based strategies, and allows the resources and actions needed to modernize the charcoal sector to be defined. : | 33 The evolution of real charcoal prices can be examined using a relatively long timeseries (dating from 1953 to the present) which was compiled by the IHSI as part of its price index series. Use of this type of statistical abstract, where charcoal is included in a basket of commodities, generally does not yield themost reliable gauge, because measures of charcoal price relative to weight are not accurate and are generally made with a small sample. Nonetheless, this abstract undoubtedly is one of the better sets of timeseries data available in Haïti. Three principal periods of evolution are evident from the data (see Figure 3.1): (a) during the first period, up to 1967 (the year when cyclone Cléo struck), charcoal prices decreased in real terms, (b) during the second period, from 1967 to 1985, charcoal prices rose rapidly, (c) during the third period, from 1987 to the present, charcoal prices grew more slowly. [page 49] -.%4- 34 Several explanations are possible for these successive trends, The relative dropin | real charcoal prices from 1950 to 1967 undoubtedly is due to the relative abundance of wood during that time. In addition, the 1960s were punctuated by a succession of cyclones (Flora in 1963, Inès in 1966, and the strongest, Cléo in 1967) during which substantial quantities of wood were felled, thus providing "cost-free" materials to produce charcoal inexpensively for the urban population. ure 3,1: Charcoal Price + 1993 + 1900 Trend : 1980 Gousdes/38 hs bas ï 25 2 20 M pd à F VS 40 LA F= ce. AA SEE 8 33 3% 33 38 57 30 39 GO 1 82 03 09 63 68 97 09 69 70 71 72 73 A 73 76 77 70 75 CO O1 92 63 + ES 08 C7 08 ES 20 Source : LH.9.1., 0. 3.5 The opposite tendency of prices after 1967 can be explained by the evolution of the resource supply: relatively abundant before 1967, wood became increasing scarce in subsequent years. The development of major and secondary roadways in the north and south at the beginning ofthe 1970s opened Haïtÿs rural areas to the modern economy, temporarily producing a aownward effect on prices. However other factors once again contributed upward pressure.on prices, including increased transportation costs and the progressively spreading practice by local authorities of illegally collecting part of the costs of charcoal transport and marketing, 36 The recent slowdown in the growth of real charcoal prices can be explained by: (a) _ at.the demand level, increased competition from new fuels. The threshold at which petroleum fuels become competitive with wood-based fuels has been surpassed: in terms of useful energy, propane gas and kerosene have become less expensive than charcoal (see para. 3.42 to 3.45). [page 50] .35- (b) several factors on the supply side which are the more likely determinants in the downward pressure on charcoal prices. They include: (1) the relative decrease in rural incomes, and thus the decrease in the (&) and in particular, from 1986 onwards, the suspension of local controls on forest exploitation, which prompted the spread of charcoal production throughout the country. 37 None of the price evolutions produced benefits for charcoal producers; in fact the contrary is true. The producer’s share of the retail charcoal price has decreased continuously for the past ten years (see Figure 3.2), Charcoal price increases primarily have been due to increasing intermediary costs; the producer price has remained constant. This means that the producer’s actual income has dropped, if the newly-recognized fact of increasing monetary value of the wood used for charcoal production is taken into account. Elaure 3,2: Producer!s Share of Charcoal Price | 1979 + 1990 Trend 25 1990 Gourdes/35 ke bas. — S0% . Retail pric LE j proces 20% res 10 acx mener rent ; VS aS 07 67 47 04,85 66 57 8 857 80 BERRMEPRES . 38 In fact, the time when charcoal production was based primarily on access to a “free" resource is essentially past. Neariy 60% of charcoal producers operating on land other than their own buy the wood used for carbonization, either through direct purchases or, more frequentiy due to insufficient cash flow, by splitting the charcoal sales price with the wood supplier. In the case where wood is purchased directly, the producer pays an average of 3 to 3.5 Gourdes for the quantity needed to produce one bag of charcoal, equivalent to H$ 2/m° or H$3/ton of wood (assuming a [page 51] -36-. weighted carbonization efficiency of 20%). When the charcoal price is shared, the split most often is 40% to 50% for the wood supplier (about 4 Gourdes per bag) and 50% to 60% for the charcoal producer: in this case, the equivalent price of wood for the producer is nearly H$ 3/m° or H$ 4/ton. 39 Thus the 1990 price of wood used for carbonization is less than half the cost of planting wood, estimated by FAO at US$5.4/m° or US$7.7/ton for the larger plantations. Another comparison to be made is with the present costs of planting trees under agroforestry projects: each suiviving tree costs about US$1.5 and annually yields -- independent of the environmental benefits to the rural economy of planting trees — about 3 US cents (based on productivity of 10 kg/year, calculated in terms of current prices of wood used in carbonization). Finally, these figures can be compared with the estimated environmental costs of deforestation - namely loss of sediments, reduced soil productivity, and erosion (see Annex XII) -- which in Haiti are about US$ 23/ton of wood (Hosier and Bernstein, 1989). 3.10 The fact that a monetary value has been attached to wood used in charcoal - exploitation indicates an ongoing transition in the perception of deforestation in Haïti, Whereas deforestation previously was noted only by specialists, its impacts now directly affect the wood consuming population. However, the cost of wood is yet not enough ta induce rational exploitation of wood resources or even the development of a specific economic rent associated with wood planting. Replanting efforts must be pursued, but in strictly financial terms, they-are not profitable at present. Based on the FAO cost estimates, planting wood could be profitable if producer costs more than double to 18 Gourdes/m? (split 6 Gourdes for the charcoal producer and 12 Gourdes to the wood supplier). This would imply a 20% increase in urban retail prices, which is acceptable if less expensive fuel alternatives also are available to consumers. Petroleum fuels already provide less costly alternatives for households able to invest at least $30 or $40 for a portable cookstove. In addition, the recommended improved stoves program would permit consumers to save up to 20% on fuel expenditures for a modest initial investment of only $4 to $5. 3.11 The evolution of charcoal prices presents a basic problem with regard to which strategy should be adopted. The strategies to be considered can be described in terms of two ._ extremely different options, both of which carry strong potential environmental risks: (a) The first option is to retain the current policy: let charcoal consumption increase at its natural pace. Resource shortages gradually will induce the cost of wood to rise until the associated economic rent develops. When the fact that Haïtrs | environmental deterioration is due to multiple causes -- not just wood offtake for charcoal production -— is taken into account, planting and cuitivating trees for energy - use becomes then another means of environmental preservation, just as with the cultivation of coffee and banana plantations in other countries. However, will the environmental damage caused in the meantime not be irreversible? [page 52] -37- (b) Another option is to forego supply-side intervention and focus strategy on substitution and energy conservation. The induced decrease in charcoal consumption would diminish the pressure of wood offtake on forest resources. However the policy of intervening only on the demand-side also carries certain risks: a downward pressure will develop on charcoal prices, and subsequently on the cost of wood. This will tend to perpetuate the "mining" character of current forestry practices, in which the resource is exploited without concern for its renewability. 3.12 These considerations emphasizes the need for a global strategy of intervention incorporating both energy and forestry aspects: (a) demand-side interventions to induce energy substitution and energy conservation; (b) supply-side interventions to establish conditions which will render wood and charcoal prices more expensive, namely through rational exploitation of wood resources due to a modernized charcoal sector. 3.13 Interventions on the conditions of charcoal marketing and production must be a | principal element of the strategy. This will convert exploitation of forestry resources from its present “mining” model into a cohesive system for rationally managing a renewable national resource. Two important factors which would hinder development of a rationalized system must be taken into account: (a) institutional weaknesses in the supervision of the sector, and the foreseeable difficulties this supervising entity will have when attempting to implement required improvements, (b) the lack of any systematic study of the charcoal sector, its role in the peasant economy, and its impacts on the environment in each exploitation zone. 3.14 These constraints shape and color to a large extent the contents and organization of supply-side intervention. As a result, it is recommended that a specialized, autonomously managed and financed unit ternporarily be established within the MARNDR. This unit would be responsible for analyzing the different aspects of charcoal exploitation (including the conditions for enforcing laws and fiscal policy) and for coordinating and supervising the projects and programs to ‘ modernize the charcoal sector. La [page 53] . 38. ‘ 3.15 The unit’s operations will be developed in coordination with and as a complement to actions undertaken within the framework of the new Forestry and Environmental Protection Project 6/, on the three following priority themes: . (a) geographic reorientation of charcoal offake; (b) modernization of the supply network; (c) better collection of taxes on charcoal. 3.16 Restraining the conditions of charcoal supply is one of the key solutions to induce an increase in the price of charcoal, and especially in the price of wood used for carbonization. Undoubtedly, it is unrealistic to propose a total ban on charcoal production in some areas. Nonetheless, it is possible to constrain charcoal shipments from these areas to the urban markets: in certain zones, maximum quotas, regulated by local officials, would be allocated restricting the quantities of charcoal which could be transported to Port-au-Prince and the other main cities. Effective application of the quotas will depend on the compliance of local authorities; it should be noted that in some areas, these very authorities already have implemented similar measures, usually by defining exit quotas for charcoal from their districts. This is the case in the Hinche and Grande Anse districts, where local measures consistent with those proposed for national application have been adopted due to initiatives by local authorities. 3.17 In order to assure effective implementation of the measures recommended, it is important that any quota policy, which necessarily would penalize some charcoal production zones, be negotiated on the local level and in particular with the affected charcoal producers. 1t may be necessary to include the producers in a sort of compensation program, where specific priority programs are introduced to mitigate the impacts on charcoal producing families in areas affected by the quotas. 3.18 Restriction of charcoal production is very much needed, ‘and quickly. Areas of the country which would be affected by these restrictions include: $#/ The FEPP will include the following components: (a) institutional strengthening for the MARNER, induding improvementé to the tax regime for woodfuels; (b) specific foreatrs and environmental programs, including management of the Reserve orest (28,000 ha) and an inventory national forest resources; and (c) promotion of improved charcoal stoves by the BME. The total amount of the IDA credit is US$ 25.9 million; the project is slated to begin in 1992. * [page 54] -39- . (a) _ in order of priority, new production zones where the activity orly recently — and chaotically -- has been established: (b) more established production zones where affiliated forestry exploitation has caused significant damage. 3.19 The new production zones would be targeted first: as charcoal exploitation has not yet become ingrained in the local peasant economy of these areas (and thus they can more easily absorb the loss in income from charcoal production), this will fecilitate implementation of a quota policy and limit its impact. While it is difficult to generalize, the zones to be targeted for the most part, would include the Central Plateau, the Grande Anse and more generally the southwest peninsula and the southeastern part of the country, as well as the older supply zone in the South. These areas cumulatively already represent 30% of Port-au-Prince’s current charcoal consumption (see Figure 3.3). The main areas from which charcoal should continue to be supplied to Port-au-Prince thus would be limited: the north, the northwest, the Artibonite, the west and Gonave Island, which currently provide 70% of the charcoal sold in Port-au-Prince. 7/ 3.20 In the zones which would come under supply quotas, charcoal production conditions can be summarized as follows: there are in total about 24,000 part-time charcoal producers, usually small peasants, who make charcoal only a few months out of the year. The income received from charcoal is considered secondary contingency income, complementary to agricultural incomes: less than $100 annually, or less than half the average monetary income from agriculture in these areas (more than $200). 3.21 Based on what is known regarding the local supply networks, depriving these areas of the Port-au-Prince market would cause unemployment of about 15,000 to 20,000 charcoal producers maximum and an overall loss of income emounting to 10 million Gourdes. This is a far from negligible loss, whether observed from the macroeconomic level of the affected provinces or from the macroeconomie level of the peasant. Actual impacts at district level should be analyzed on a case by case basis, in order to’ determine the full extent of negative effects on the local economy and the means by which these effects can be mitigated. 32 To be successful, implementation of the planned quotas must first be technically feasible. Although it is impossible to ban completely production in certain zones (Haitÿs history of forestry management is rich with inapplicable decrees), technically it should be possible if not to prevent, at least to definitely hinder illicit shipments of charcoal coming from the prohibited zones. This would be possible by limiting charcoal transit on major road axes (the roads to | Once a charcoal master plan is established for Port-au-Prince (see 426 # PS4 mani ep roduee en enpaciy of ench apne would De dermied M (orne of maximum quantity of wood and charcoal that could be produced each year, according to the characteristics of woodiuel resource base in these zones. [page 55] -40- £iaura.3,3: Maîn Characteristics of Charcoal Production | NORTH WEST + ANSE ROUGE . 10,000 charcoalers (10%) NORTH + NORTH EAST | poney 1900 charcoalers (1%) ! Small kilns Wood abundance Large kiins ARTIBONITE CENTRE dhareoalets (4%) | WEST 3200 Small kins | 19,000 charcoalers (30%) | GRANDE ANSE EAST | Secondary activity Secondary activity - . Medium/small-sized kilns SOUTH 2 écandae sci LT . . Medium/emolltired Mine 67,000 CHARCOALERS IN HAITI © Source:Charcoal volumes count; Transporters’ surveys; Field surveys ESMAP/BME/OLADE/UNDP 1990 Léogane, Miragoane, Kenscoff, and to the east of Gonaïves, and the road to St Michel de | l'Attalaye) and increasing control of charcoal transported by buat. 3.23 Technical feasibility of the quota proposal is not the only condition for its success; neither the ability of the local people to adapt to regulations which are contrary to their interests, nor the possitädities of overriding control mechanisms through illicit agreements, should be underestimated. Implementation of the quota system necessarily must be accompanied by a collaborative effort with the main local authorities in the affected zones — representatives of the State and of the local communities, the NGOSs, and specialists working in the field - to define and negotiate at the local level the means by which income losses caused by limiting access to the charcoal markets of Port-au-Prince can be compensated. 3.24 Compensation most likely would take the form of a priority action program tarzeting the peasants most affected by the restricted charcoal markets. The modalities of this program should be defined at the local level, and could take various forms, based on local priorities. In some areas, charcoal revenues are linked with the cost of schooling (supplies, enrollment fees), which [page 56] -41- could be reduced; elsewhere compensation could take the form of assistance for reviving pig husbandry; elsewhere still programs to commercialize wood products, especially those from the wood of fruit trees, would be appropriate. These actions are for the most part outside the scope of an energy strategy and, once defined, should be implemented within the framework of existing or future rural development programs. : 325 Consolidated financing for such a program at the national level could be assured in part by the Haitian government, but mainly by a group of institutional or non-governmental lenders. Also, some proposed actions easily could be included in social action programs such as the future Economic and Social Fund. Taking into account the overall estimated loss of revenues by charcoal producers, the total cost of a rural development program nf this type could range from US$ 3 to 5 million over a three year period. This program would be implemented by rural organizations already operating in the affected zones as soon as the restrictions on charcoal marketing, or even a total restriction of wood offtake in some zones, are effectively in place and operational. Mosernization of Supply Networks | 326 In the zones which would continue to supply charcoal to the capital (see para. 3.18), the situation will be the opposite of that described above: charcoal marketing will inject additional economic resources into the supply provinces (in amounts at least equivalent to the losses in the quota zones, and probably greater, since limiting the exploitation zones should make producer prices rise), but at the cost of concentrating and increasing within a smaller area the pressure on forestry resources due to charcoal exploitation. 327 The objectives of the project components for charcoal conservation and substitution, described in Section B, are to decrease this pressure. However, the problem also can be addressed partially by improving the existing conditions for charcoal production. In the older, more established production zones, such as Anse Rouge for example, charcoal exploitation has developed | sort of professionalism: the activity provides regular employment with incomes of over $150/year, exceeding agricultural incomes-in areas with weak cultivation potential. In these areas, many medium-scale peasants are employed by this activity, which in other areas is reserved for small peasants. The proposed strategy should benefit from this existing professionalism, which manifests itself in carbonization practices which are less destructive to local forestry resources. The professional nature of charcoal exploitation in the traditional production zones not only provides a guarantee of efficiency, but equally helps improve availability of wood for carbonization (through better management of existing resources). 3.28 In other zones (especially in the areas targeted for quotas, but also in certain areas where production is strongly established), charcoal exploitation is still relatively new and has not yet damaged the local resources. Although newly established producers in these areas have the opportunity to use better quality wood, their carbonization methods are still far from below on par with those of the producers in the more established areas. Pre-drying wood ("dégorgé") is used only [page 57] | by a minority of the producers in the area (30%), those precisely who are originary from a traditional charcoal production area. The more recently a producer has ventured into charcoal exploitation, the less efficient are his techniques for stacking wood in the kilns (“boat* kilns or *parasol" kilns, the Haitian equivalent of the Casamance kiln used in Senegal) and carbonization. 3.29 However, it is clear that among its professional charcoal producers, Haiti possesses an incontestable prowess in charcoal making: the weighted yields obtained from kilns in established charcoal producing areas, about 20% (measurements by USAID, 1976 and by the BME in 1985 and 1990), are among the best in the world, and are altogether comparable to those obtained with metal and brick ovens. It is necessary to make good use of this charcoal-making tradition and to help it spread throughout the areas concerned: (a) by finding new operating areas for the experienced charcoal makers who operate in areas where resources are near exhaustion; (b) by training qualified charcoal producers in the new production areas; (c) by finding means to supply qualified producers with wood sufficient for their production needs, while taking into account environmental concerns. 3.30 The objective is to arrive eventually to a point where qualified charcoal making constitutes a real profession (such is the case in the more established traditional production zones). Peasants thus would benefit more from supplying wood for carbonization to the professionals, rather than carbonizing it themselves. To a certain extent, this is the current situation: about one third of the charcoal producers surveyed aperate on their own land, whereas more than half purchase wood or split the price of charcoal made with wood obtained from small landholders (see Table on page 12 of Annex X). 3.31 The system for taxing wood and charcoal must be improved so that the woodfuels subsector itself can partially finance its rationalization and modernization by contributing significantly (which is not yet the case) to the operating costs of a forestry service responsible for managing the subsector and by financing 2 share of the public investments in the subsector. The amount of the charcoal tax does not need to be increased in the short term, but rather the existing system must be improved: (8) by simplifying the system of collecting and transferring funds; () by pursuing improved control, including a better rate of charcoal tax collection. [page 58] -43- 3.32 The current system of local, decentralized tax collection by local MARNDR agents generally is a good system; tax collection at the entrance to the cities would be more problematic (greater risks of attacks on the posts, etc.) Some improvements are possible nonetheless at two levels: the actual collection of the tax, and the transfer and reallocation of funds. The improvements would be designed to avoid excessive handling and movements of funds, which currently are easily subject to bureaucratie hassles and embezzlement. 333 It would be preferable to relieve the forestry agents of their tax collecting duties and to reassign this responsibility to a fiscal agent, namely the local tax collector for the Ministry of Finance. Subsequently, collection of charcoal taxes should be transferred to payer-agents in local villages (village tax collectors), as provided for in the 1987 Constitution. 334 In fact, it would be a good idea to eventually pass a local tax statute for charcoal, (a) The efficiency of collection will be proportional to the share ofthe tax receipts which directly benefit the local administration responsible for collecting it. (b) Thesystem of having the district taxes on forestry operations sent to the capital, then returned to the district level (though not always the same district) is very difficult LL to manage under current circumstances. | | (c) A iocal tax system will allow the development of a differential tax system based on local conditions of wood resource availability and management. 3.35 A portion of the tax revenues should go to the Forestry Fund (the current Special Fund for Reforestation) to finance Forestry Services activities, and the remaining funds could be used by the local authorities for local pricrities, especially those concerning reforestation and environmental protection. Periodic discussions between the central and local authorities, (e.g., with the boards of communal sections) could be held concerning use of these funds, with the forestry authority reserving the supervisory rights to activities and bringing its own technical assistance to the use of these funds. 3.36 Current efforts to improve the control of charcoal supply should concentrate on strengthening the operations at existing control posts: repairing some posts (in particular the one situated at the wharf of the Cité Soleil); training agents at the forestry assigned to control duties; the implementation a simple computerized system for collecting and treating data. Additionally, some supplemental control posts will need to be set up, in particular at Port-au-Prince, at Gonaives and at Cap Haïtien. [page 59] 4. B._Demand-Side Interventions 337 The supply-side interventions for wood and charcoal are inseparable from demand- side interventions — those to introduce and promote substitution fuels and more efficient equipment. The approaches used in the demand-side intervention, which constitutes the second axis of the strategy, are determined in large part by two related factors: (a) the economic conditions of substituting for wood and charcoal, (b) the fuel and stove markets. ‘ 3.38 Competition among the three main fuels - charcoal, kerosene and gas -- must be analyzed on three levels of comparison. They are the following: (a) the “financial cost" of the fuel: the cost of fuel at the final user's level, a cost which will depend on the retail price, the fuel’s calorific value, and the cost and efficiency of associated stoves. (b) the current economic costs" of the fuel: the cost to the national economy, excluding taxes, exchange differentials, subsidies, and all artificial mechanisms which modify the fuel price. (c) the “theoretic economic costs" of the fuel: the cost of the fuel under the hypothesis that measures would be taken to improve the supply and distribution systems, and that the evolution of the demand would entail variations of supply costs. C jve Fuel Pris 3.39 The evolution of the costs of cooking with charcoal (purchased by the bag) and with. three competing petroleum fuels -- propane, butane and kerosene (cost at the pump or bulk price) - - are given in Figure 3.4 for Port-au-Prince. The costs of associated stoves are not included in these calculations. The figure illustrates the following points: (a) the progressive increase in the cost of cooking with charcoal, as described previously, (b) the correlating drop in the price of petroleum fuels, including the more distinct drop in propane during the last few years, primarily due to taxation decisions, [page 60] . | 45. (c) decontrolled propane became competitive with charcoal in 1985, and kerosene, after . subjected to new tax controls, became competitive again in 1988, (d) of course these costs depend an the stoves used: thus with more efficient stovesthan those presently used (portable pressurized kerosene cookers, improved charcoal stoves), kerosene and charcoal costs are on par with those of propane, (e) under current conditions, butane is more expensive than competing fuels. Eiaure 3,6: Costs of Cooking with Charcoel, Kerosene end Gas : . 1980 H$ per useful GJ | 30 L . CN EN 29 Cr —-prosRs SERRES md 5 71 78 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 860 81 82 83 84 85 86 a 88 85 20 Butane: Bip Ticheri stovs; Propane: cooker with oven - Kerosane: wick stova; Charcoal: traditional stove 340 Amortization and maintenance cost of stoves are incorporated into the calculations presented in Tabie 3.1 (a summary of the detailed tables attached in Appendix VI). These figures confirm the preceding conclusions: cooking with charcoal, kerosene or propane gas essentially costs the same for the Port-au-Prince consumer (about H$ 30 to 35 per useful GJ), with butane being 3.41 Two remarks, however, ought to be noted. The first concerns how fuels are purchased: if the hoôüseholds do not purchase variable quality charcoal in bags or in smaller portions (75% of households purchase charcoal in this manner), but prefer to purchase selected charcoal, sold in pots or baskets, their cooking costs is almost double the previous estimates, 342 The quantities in which kerosene is purchased also are important. Most of the Ê present users of portable kerosene stoves purchase their fuel by gallon at the pump. However there are anly on the order of 70 service stations in Port-au-Prince. With the development of the [page 61] . - 46- kerosene market consumers would purchase kerosene from retailers. The fact that kerosene can be purchased daily in small quantities is one of its greatest advantages as a fuel: thus it becomes more accessible to lower-income households or to those with irregular incomes. However this service also comes at a price: the selling price of a 1-liter bottle is 30% more expensive than the . price when purchased by the gallon at the pump. Isble 3,1: Compered Coste of Cooking in Port-eu-Prince, 1990 Financial Coot Fuel Stove Type of of Cooking Charcoal Round traditional Beg 35.0* Charcoat Round improved 8eg 27.6 Charcoel Potejé treditionst Bag 38.4 Charcosl Potajé improved Bag 31.6 Kerosene Wick F{LLing Station 36.9 Kerosens Mick : Bottle 46.1 Kercsene Pressurized Filling Station 27.8 Kerosene Pressurized Bottle 36.5 Propane Cooker Current price 30.6 Propane Cooker Theoretic price 15.3 &utene Bip Current price so.1° Butene stp Thooretie price 15.6 Noïe: * Currently used in Haiti 343 The other more fundamental remark concerns the current structure of the price of gas, as presented in Table 3.2. The various components of that price are reviewed in turn, beginning with the FOB price. The FOB purchase prices for gas, 29 and 40 cents per galion respectively for propane and butane, presently are about 5 cents above the Mt. Belvieu spot market postings. This is not a temporary or conjectural phenomenon: for the past five years or more, petroleum products, and particularly gas, have been imported at prices 3 to 5 cent higher than the spot market price per gallon. For the 30,000 tons imported during this period, this represents an 3.44 The transport component in the gas price structure - about 30 cents per gallon of gas, or $150 per ton of gas — is quite elevated compared to the costs of gas transport in, for example, Jamaica (US$ 40/T for an annual market of 45,000 tons) or the Dominican Republic (US$ 50/T for an annual market of 35,000 tons). ‘These differences cannot be explained only by the very reduced size of deliveries, which arrive every 15 days in Port-au-Prince. According to a BAPP study, if gas transport were open to competition, the cost would become fixed at around US$100/T under present conditions, and gradually would level out to around US$50/T (10 cents per gallon) if the gas market were to grow substantially and if new reception facilities and adequaie storage infrastructure were installed, [page 62] -47- 3.45 The limited size of the Haïtian market also is not the only explanation for the high combined margins (approximately 60% for propane and more than 70% for butane) for importing and distribution companies. The usual combined margin in similar market situations in neighboring markets or other micro-markets (in Africa, for example) is between 30 and 35%. Jable 3,2: Costs of Importing Gas and Kerosene ‘ Kerosene Propens Propane Butsne Butane . Fuel Unit Gal lon Gallon Galton Gallon Gatlon «t) €) cn) 2) FOB price US cents 58.0 29.0 :29.0 34.0 34.0 Trensport US cents 2.2 29.7 40.0 28.8 10.0 . Insurance US centa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Customs Duty US cents 1.9 0.9 . 0.9 1.0 1.0 CIF price US cents 62.1 59.6 39.9 63.8 45.0 ‘ Weight kg 3.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 CIF price 8/kg 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 Calorffie value MJ/kg as 45.7 45.7 45.7 45.7 CIF final energy 4/04 4.6 6.4 4.3 6.8 4.8 Stove efficiency X 40x eux 60x 50% sox | CIF useful energy 9/04 11.5 19.6 71 13.6 9.6 Notea: (1) Current tranaport cost: 8140/ton (2) Transport cost at one-third of Îts current Level 3.46 A comparison of the price structure for propane in Haiti with that in the Dominican Republic is quite instructive: the Dominican Republic market for propane is 12 times larger and also strongly competitive, The CIF price there is practically half that of Haïti and the price before subsidies are added is three times lower. Once subsidized, the propane costs five times less for the customer than in Haïti (see Table 3.3). This comparison does not take into account, however, possible differences between Haïti and the Dominican Republic with respect to corporate taxes on benefits. It is also worth mentioning that the assessment of investment risk is probably different in these two countries; in Haïti, Shell applies a rate of return on investment of 15%, which is probably higher than the rate applied by private firms in the Dominican Republic. However, these possible differences could not totally explain the large margin difference that exists between the two countries. A detailed review of the price structure of butane and propane should therefore be conducted, in close collaboration with the gas importer and distributors, and with the BAPP; this would be included in the proposed study of the options to develop the LPG market in Haiti (see Annex XI). . [page 63] Jsble 3,3: Cosparison of Propsne Price Structures în Haît{ and Dominican Republic Haiti Doinicen Rep. Propans Propene Haiti April 1990 April 1990 versus (Cents/Gsl) % (Cents/Gal) % Domin. Rep. FOB price 2.0 19% 23.0 47% 1.3 Trensport 29.7 20% 10.0 20% 3.0 Customs duty 0.9 1x 0.0 0 CIF price 59.6 40% 33.0 67 1.8 . Misc. duties 5.1 3 0.0 où Ex-custons price GT 4 33.0 67%X 2.0 kargins 85.3 57% 16.2 3% 5.3 Retail price without euboidy 150.0 100% 49.2 100% 3.0 subsidy 0.0 0x 166 3% 9.0 Retail price 150.0 100% 32.8 67 4.6 : fource: BAPP 3.47 Herein lies the problem of the competition among fuels. The price structure of kerosene is relatively sound: there is competition among distributors and the price components are negotiated with the State. However, if the basic components of the gas price structure were to be revised, its retail price would reach about 60 cents per gallon: refilling costs for a 12.5 kg container would amount to $4, and for the Bip container, 4 Gourdes. If prices were revised downward in this manner, gas (butane or propane) would become the cheaper fuel, distinctly lower priced than competing fuels. With the present tax regime, the cost of cooking with gas, including amortization and maintenance costs for stoves, would then be two times lower than the cost of cooking with Charcoal or kerosene. "348 Comparison of economic costs takes into account the real costs of different fuels and stoves. Thus the analysis takes -costs net of the various taxes (especially kerosene taxes) and of wood used in the analysis is different from the current market value; rather it reflects replacement costs using agroforestry planting techniques and takes into account the reference prices for the labor, the margins for producers, transporters, wholesalers and retailers, and the exchange rate (see Appendix V); thus the economic cost of charcoal is less than its current retail selling price. 3.49 It is apparent from this comparison that under present circumstances, kerosene is the most economic solution when it is purchased at the pump (between US$18 and US$22 per useful GJ). The costs arrived at for other fuels are, in ascending order: charcoal (between US$20 and US$27 per useful GJ) and gas (US$29 and US$44 per useful GJ respectively for propane and butane). Clearly, under current prices, the country’s most economic solution is to substitute [page 64] -49. kerosene for charcoal. Otherwise, agroforestry planting is the next best solution, with gas substitution being the least economic (see Table 3.4). If the base cost of gas is revised to reflect its real economic costs, the situation is reversed: Its economic cost falls to around US$1$ per useful GJ, thus making it the best alternative for the country, not only for Port-au-Prince but also in the provincial towns where charcoal is about 30% cheaper than in the capital. Isble 3.4: Compared Economic Costs in Port-au-Prince, 1990 Current Theoretie economic economic Fuel Stove Type of cost of cost of purchase cooking cooking Uss/ uss/ useful GJ useful GJ Charcoal Round treditional Bag 24.5 29.3 Charcoal Round treditional Bag 19.5 23.2 Charcoel Potejé traditional Bag 26.9 51.6 Charcoat Potajé improved Bag 22.1 25.8 Kerosene Wick Filling stat. 22.6 22.6 Kerosene Wick Bottle 30.3 30.3 . Kerosene Pressurized Filing stat. 18.7 18.7 Kerosene Pressurized 8ottle 24.7 24.7 Propane Cooker Container 28.6 14.0 Butane Bip Container 4 16.9 3.50 In terms ofthe impacts of importing petroleum products on the balance of payments, there is also a tendency for the options to reverse their order of desirability if gas prices are revised (see Table 3.3). Under present price conditions, the impact of petroleum imports is about the same for both kerosene or gas (slightly lower in the case of propane, a little higher in the case of butane). Importing gas is the least cost option when gas prices are revised. 3.51 In conclusion, the gas solution appears the most advantageous ‘or consumers and the country, but only if necessary measures are taken to open the market to greater competition | and if necessary investments are made for storage and distribution infrastructure. However, the various parameters which govern consumer choices for purchasing equipment and switching to another fuel, need to be analyzed to determine if the gas market is worth a promotion effort. The market for fuels and stoves is, therefore, analyzed in the following section. [page 65] - 50 - The Market for Fuels and Stoves 3.52 The characteristics of Port-au-Prince households that currently use gas and kerosene are as follows: : (a) the 40,000 residential users of propane gas are distinguished by their level of income: almost all affluent households and a majority of the upper-middle income households own gas equipment. Whatever the income level, more than one in every two (b) the 20,000 new Bip purchasers have a profile somewhat like households of the -__ previous category (see Table 3.5): larger, well-to-do households which have been reluctant to make the switch to gas and purchase Bip as contingency equipment; middle class households; and even the better-off among poorer househoïds (nearly 10% of households with monthly incomes of less than $72 per capita have purchased a Bip). However, the further removed this market penetration is from the | traditional propane markets, the more likely purchases of Bip equipment are made for contingency use; on the average only one Bip owner in three uses it as the primary cooking appliance. Finally, the owners of Bip are younger than the average: 50% of Bip users are less than 30 years old, 80% less than 40 years old. Jable 3,5: Bip Ticherl's share of the gas market în thousends of Householde Socio-econonic stratun Total % Lou OX Nediun % High % Propane Stove Primary 20.3 56 1.6 50 10.4 50 8.6 59 ‘ Secondery 17.6 46 1.4 50 10.4 50 5.9 41 8ip Ticher Primary 6.3 335 0.5 10 27 26 32 N Secondary 13.1 67 4.1 90 7.7 T6 1.46 30 Total households 180.0 100 116.3 100 49.1 100 16.7 100 Hofe: Soc Annex 10 for the definition end boundaries of thr three . socio-econonic groups. Source: ESMAP/BME/OLADE/PNUD Surveys, 1990 ' (c) the 5,500 household users of kerosene are well-off to middle class households with the same type of income. However they tend to be not only older than Bip users (two-thirds of women who cook with kerosene are between 30 and 40 years old), but they also have larger than average households (often 6-8 people per household). [page 66] se fasse Jrspiis iseiis Î ÉEFFFEITE je Ses 5 . RE is MARS HER À LAN AE BU“ AN sn LE “ AR ER ANS AN ! HU JE HHHE Hill j A Mt En que |b | JE HE 2 LEE a [page 67] -52- 3.57 The market potential in Port-au-Prince for the different stoves and fuels (for primary use) was determined based on different analyses conducted during the study. A factor analysis of socio-economic characteristics, purchasing behavior, and energy consumption practices of households polled in the capital (see Appendix VII) showed a certain number of fundamental parameters that determine the choices of stoves and fuels. These determining factors are in decreasing order: (3) purchasing ability (level, regularity); (ii) ability to investment; (ii) willingness to modernize (or concern for tradition); (iv) household size; and (v) introversion of household (or on the contrary, openness to the external world). ‘ 3.58 On the basis of both this analysis and the results of the stoves presentation, five target groups were identified 9/, with different profiles: (a) Group A: households without budgetary or rigid dietary constraints; (b) Group B: households of more than six people, with a variable but regular income; (c) Group C: average-sized households with a certain level of education; (d) Group D: households witi: ‘ox or irregular income; 0 (e) GroupE: modern, progressive households. 3.59 An evaluation of the market potential of each of the principal types of stoves and fuels was conducted for each of these groups under two scenarios: (i) gas prices remain at their present level, and (ii) gas prices are reduced appreciably to levels two times less than their present . level, In the latter case, a sensitivity analysis was also carried out for the respective market shares for the main stoves and fuels in rejation to exogenous factors (inflation, income level) or endogenous factors (distribution policies, price of equipment, loan availability, advertising strategy for promoters of different equipment). 3.60 . The results, detailed in Appendix VIII are summarized in Table 3.6. This table describes the potential markets in Port-au-Prince for the different fuels and stoves for primary use. The results mainly show: (a) relatively interesting prospects for substitution with the possibility, all things being equal, of inducing over 40% of households to switch to a primary fuel other than charcoal; 9/ The sum of these groups represents the total population of Port-au-Prince. [page 68] - 53 - () thestrongpreference for gas among all substitution possibilities (27% of households; 10% opt for kerosene and 3% for electricity) 10/. The market for “popular gas" (Bip or possibly other portable stoves) could absorb most potential new gas users, thus attaining up to two thirds of the gas market; (c) the entrenchment of a substantial portion of households (60% of the total) which are resistant to substitution and will continue to use charcoal, either in a small round stove (46%) or a potajé stove (14%); (d) the possible level of market penetration by ro’:nd improved stoves, encompassing 40% of small stoves users and a little less than 20% of the total households, Jable 3.6: Results of the market study în Port-au-Prince Port-au-Prince Market Reference 1990 (1) €) Santo Domingo Wed Nax Min 1988 Charcoal stoves Treditionel stove cox Eu 20% 18% 22% Improved stove 2% 19% 18X 17% 20x Potajé stove 22% 16K 9% 8X 10% Sub Total BAS 60 4674 4% 52% 28 Kerosene stove 2% 406 EX SX 7x 3 Ges stove Propane cocker JR 10% 16% 19% 16% Butane stove 4% 18X 28% 32% 25% ‘Bu Total 1% 27% (MX SO 30% 68 Electric plate 2x E 2 2x L-3 2 - TOTAL . 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% . Notes: (C1) Market potential, price structures unchanged ; (2) Market potential, significant decresse of gas price Med: Average gas penetration ‘ Mex: Heximun gas penetration Hin: Minimum ges penetration Source: Market tests: ESMAP/BKE/OLADE/PNUD 3.61 An appreciable downward evolution in gas prices would reinforces these tendencies. Under the most o:timistic hypotheses, gas would attain market shares of 50% in the capital city, cutting into the charcoal market (especially among potajé users), and also gaining significantly on kerosene and electricity. This would facilitate shifts from conventional gas to popular gas and 19/ The percentage preferring kerosene would be greater than 10% if kerosene prices were decontrolled Ike LPG. However, if the price of LPG were reduced, LPG preference would [page 69] 54. therefore would benefit both types of gas in equal shares. It also would in no way negate the need to begin efforts to distribute improved stoves to the population segments who continue to use charcoal, 3.62 it is apparent from the market analyses that, even under optimistic scenarios of substitution, the percentage of charcoal users would remain around 40% in the medium term. Mountiag a conservation program thus remains a priority. In addition, the likelihood is high that market penetration by the small round improved stove will be successful in all cases: estimates are between 40% and 50% of current users of the older round stove model. 3.63 The conclusions of this analysis correspond to those of the analysis of financial and economic costs for the different fuels. The market analysis suggests that gas has the best chance of achieving massive substitution; and the cost analysis shows that it is possible to make significant interventions at the price structure level in order to promote gas use among urban Haitian consumers. 364 Therefore, it is necessary to examine the feasibility and the conditions of those components which correspond to the two main axes of the energy strategy, designed to alleviate the pressure of woodfuel consumption on the Haitian environment in the short term: | (a) the reduction of urban charcoal consumption through promotion of gas substitution; (b) energy savings achieved through distributing more efficient systems of cooking with charcoal, . Gas Promotion 3.65 Whether it be in terms of comparative costs of different fuels or of consumers’ preferences, gas is the best substitution option for charcoal in the capital and the main Haïtian cities. However, as previously seen, the current gas market is not optimal, on three distinct levels: (a) the cost of supply on the international market and of transporting gas to the island; (b) the capacity of docking and storage facilities; (c) the margins taken by importers and distributors. 3.66 As a consequence, the price of gas is increased in an excessive fashion; the fuel thus is limited a small fraction of the population. Continuation of this situation could be understood in an environmental context different from Haitis: the well-off customer incontestably benefits from reliable and high quality service, and the pressure which LPG imports exert on the balance of [page 70] — 55. payments remains minimum under current conditions. However, as has been previously discussed, massive LPG distribution in substitution for charcoal is urgently needed. Thus steps must be taken to open the gas market, 3.67 Two fundamental options are available to public authorities for developing the gas market: (i) negotiate an agreement with the current importer, which satisfies both parties and favors rapid expansion of the gas marke (a regulated “natural” monopolÿ) - or (ii) encourage the creation of competing supply and distribution firms. The most simple of the options theoretically is to strike an agreement with the existing operator concerning regulated prices for propane and butane (return to the situation before 1987) and the new investment program for increasing storage and filling capacity. However the other option of encouraging the creation of one or several competing supplies has the advantage of addressing both the pzoblems of investment and of prices: since the market will be increasing, it thus is preferable for the State to facilitate market entry by various competing suppliers rather than to negotiate with a single supplier. The option of geographic concessions that would be allocated by the Government to different operators for the main cities is not feasible at the moment due to the limited size of the potential market for gas sales in cities other than Port-au-Prince; however, this option should be reviewed again as soon as the potential market in these cities (Cap-Haïtien, Gonaïves, Les Cayes) justifies the installation of small bottling plants, probably during the next decade (see Annex IX for market estimates in main 3.68 The appearance of a new supply and distribution company would stimulate competition not only in the “conventional" market for propane (12.5 kg and 50 kg, or even 100 kg containers), but also in the market for “popular gas” (butane), thanks to the distribution of 3 or 6 kg containers: the competition between 6 kg and 3 kg portable cookstoves is quite vibrant in certain West African countries (Senegal, Mali), which is beneficial to the consumer since it provides ‘ - an array of diversified products. The new company could strengthen market growth by making it easier for middle-income households to purchase bottles (cross mechanism of the type adopted initially by Sodigaz, amortizing part of the price of a bottle over the sales of gas), and by researching and promoting adapted cookstoves. Possibilities include some one or two burner portable cookstoves such as those d” ributed in several African countries (Sahelian countries, Cameroun) or some models manufactured in the Dominican Republic. 3.69 Two options should be considered for importing gas to meet growing demand as the gas market develops: (a) re-exportation from the Dominican Republic, (b) creation of a new gas terminal (or enlarging the existing terminal). 3.70 Under the first option, an agreement should be reached with the Dominican (security of supply) ought to be considered, on the condition that the future transfer price of gas [page 71] - 56 - supplied by the Dominican Republic reflects its economic cost. The Dominican Republic has a considerable storage capacity available to it, equivalent to more than five months of internal consumption, The Dominican Republic already plans to re expart LPG to other countries in the Caribbean in order to make its new terminal and storage center at Azua, located 150 km south east of Santo Domingo, profitable. 3.71 The Azua terminal is relatively close to Haïti (300 km from Port-au-Prince, with road transport costs about $500 by truck). It was deliberately located to capitalize on potential supply routes along the nearby north-south axis of the border. The comparatively limited needs of Haitian cities make this center a viable alternative, at least for the first years of gas promotion in Haiti Transport from Azua would cost approximately $0.2 per gallon; thus gas arriving at Port-au-Prince from this source would cost less than the current CIF price based on sea transport (62 cents per gallon). | 3.72 The other possibility is to construct an autonomous gas receiving terminal in Haiti (docking, storage and bottling facilities); this would represent an investment of about US$ 4 to 5 million. This option has several advantages, the most important being security of supply. In fact, the current importer, Shell-Haiti, already has a project of this type planned for the medium-term. It would be preferable to implement the project in an open competition framework: (a) whether by setting up a competing importing and distribution company which would : own and operate the installations, (b) or by separating imports from distribution through installation of a proper receiving and storage infrastructure to be used by various distribution companies (including tbe current importer, if it is so inclined). 3.73 Under current cireumstances, the Hsitian government must not involve itself in the direct importation or distribution of petroleum products. All new schemes thus must depend largely on the private sector. This supposes a mobilization of new partners in Haiti’s gas sector. Different options ought to be explored: (a) At the Haitian level, various entrepreneurs (either Haitian or foreign parties conducting business in the country — priority could be given to petroleum companies which already have operations in Haiti) could be interested in this type of set-up. (b) At the international level, it may be possible to interest some large multinational ‘ petroleum companies who operate in the Caribbean, but who have not yet approached the Haitians. (c) Itis also possible to explore certain possibilities of regional cooperation: agreement with Trintoc (Trinidad and Tobago) or, in a framework comparable to the San José agreement, with Mexico or Venezuela. [page 72] EE -.57- ‘ 3.74 Should creation of & new terminal be preferred, the investments required would be quite substantial. It may prove difficult to attract the necessary Haitian and foreign investors. During its preliminary research in 1988 and 1989, the BAPP had experience of this phenomenon: the country's situation provides disincentives to foreign investment. Although some international companies are interested in Hait?s gas market, they prudently are waiting for the situation to improve. In this case the State itself could be justified -- for external reasons (strong environmental justification) -- to participate in the initiative for this infrastructure, This can work from the level of a simple guarantee, or could include Government participation in a minority share of the investment. It is likely in this case that the Government’s share would require the support of an guarantee the operation. 3.75 In all situations, the State should endeavor to recapture tighter control over the conditions of gas importation and distribution, and notably over prices. It should also reinstitute a tax on gas, in order to finance the public effort in that domain: supervision of the sector and possible investments. Given the possibilities of reducing the existing margins, that small tax would not become a hindrance to the development of a gas market. Finally, the State should pay special attention to limit the environment impact of gas storage and distribution infrastructure, particularly concerning safety aspects through adequate norms and regulations, Similar safety concerns should exist at the level of consumers, to which education campaigns should be addressed by the State to ensure safe and efficient use of gas stoves. Energy Conservation - 3.76 Improved stoves programs must advance from the experimental, “minimalist” stage to a stage of large-scale distribution throughout the estimated markets in Port-au-Prince and the other main cities of Haiti Private parties already operating in the sector (manufacturers, merchants, NGOs) could be drafted for implementing these distribution programs. It also is necessary that initiatives for product development and promotion be organized and coordinated. The BME should be responsible for organizational and coordinating functions, with regard to: (a) product research and development, (b) quality control and standards, | (c) coordination of activities for local promotion. 3.77 The stove developed by the BME or its existing variations in various workshops (AFVP, BIT) is undeniably a very good product with wide acceptance. It would be quite easy to organize distribution of the product among domestic consumers and, in its larger version, among the manjé kwit (small restaurants along the side of the road) within a relatively short period of [page 73] : #8. time. The analysis of market potential for stoves and fuels shows however that another category of equipment should be considered: the potaje stoves. Given the current and future market for these stoves (currently 30% of households, 10 to 15% there after, according to the market study), an improved model of the potaje stove should be developed for distribution to the small fraction of middle-high income households reluctant to switch fuels. Arbitrage on the use of recovered versus new material for stove manufacture should be left to the stove makers, who will reflect market signals (relative costs of materials and consumers’ demand according to their preferences). 3.78 Some traditional stoves seemingly are more efficient than average, such as the *capois" stove of Cap Haitien, and they should be tested. Also, various institutional and private initiatives for perfecting and distributing improved stove models have been undertaken (REDI, MARNDR, etc.). These initiatives should be channeled together by defining a testing and standards . procedure for the various existing models or those which recently have been developed, 3.79 With regard to the producers training and field promotion, a network of local participants should be developed gradually with the support of the NGOs operating in the cities and neighborhoods where stoves would be distributed. A decentralized effort of this type should be coordinated by a single institution, possibly the BME. Training of :raftsmen, promotion and information campaigns, and follow-up/evaluation should be designed and implemented by one or several NGOs which are competent in these areas. Least-Promising Short Term Onti 3.80 Various alternatives have been discarded as they do not present favorable possibilities for addressing the current problems. They include: (i) use of lignite; (ii) use of agricultural, agro-industrial or urban wastes; and (iii) importation of charcoal or coal. 3.81 Haiti possesses severai lignite deposits. The most well known, the Maissade deposit, has proven recoverable reserves of about 6.4 million tons. Other deposits have been identified in the Asile and Camp Perrin. À 1986 study (Stevenson) showed that exploitation of this lignite could be economically competitive with charcoal. However, the lignite is of relatively low quality: high humidity, high sulfur and high ash content — thus rendering it unacceptable as a charcoal substitute for residential use as well as unusable in existing charcoal stoves. It could be used in industries, and a study to examine this possibility is planned under the guidance of the UNDP. 3.82 Similarky, the use of agricultural or agro-industrial wastes (as briquettes) also does not present a viable alternative for the residential sector. Main reasons for this are problems of acceptability among consumers and the lack of financial profitability. By contrast, there are some possibilities for using this fuel source in small industries, although experiments conducted in 1987 [page 74] . 59 - for the use of sugar cane bagasse by dry-cleaning establishments were inconclusive. This theme thus remains largely in the experimental stage. Haitian specialists have suggested to consider the use of gas produced from household urban waste in dumps organized following specific methods; on technical grounds, this producer gas could be cleaned, compressed and commercialized to be used for cooking purposes as the butane. Some experiences exist on this technology (in particular in Chile); these seem to indicate the lack of financial viability of such an operation in comparison with the use of butane gas, due to the high costs of dump management and producer gas processing. 3.83 Finally, is possible to compare the current prices of charcoal with that of imported Charcoal. Various price juotations (Plouvier, 1985, Projet Forestier 1989) place the wholesale price of imported charcoal from around US$8 per 38 kg bag (imported from Mexico), to US$10 per bag {imported in bulk from Surinam and put into bags in Haïti) and US$16/bag (imported from Brazil). Hence the retail sales price per bag would vary between 70 and 100 Gourdes, considerably higher than current prices. Importation of charcoal thus cannot be considered a viable alternative. It is not competitive with the various potential alternatives and it has none of the advantages but many of the disadvantages of the substitution option: lack of security of supply, aggravation of the balance of payment deficits. It can also present environmental risks for the producer countries. Importation of high quality coal, allowing its use as a cooking fuel, has also been examined. The Colombian export coal is a favorable case (low sulphur content, low humidity content, calorific value similar to charcoal): with a FOB price of about US$55/ton, retail price in Port-au-Prince could reach around Gourdes 780/ton (transport cost of US$15/ton; 60% margin for unloading, storage and distribution; US Dollar valued at 7 gourdes), which is about 25% cheaper than charcoal. However this option entails the same economic and political disadvantages as imported charcoal and it would probably face acceptance problems from the consumers, who, in addition, should buy new more expensive stoves for safety reasons (a chimney is necessary for CO evacuation); therefore coal importation is not a real option. Secondary Options 3.84 Three topics for action could have been included among the strategy components. However, due to the limited size of the possible interventions and their foreseeable impacts, these options have finally not been considered as components of the strategy. The three topics are: (i) decreasing wood consumption, through its conservation, in rural areas; (ii) kerosene promotion in urban areas; and (iii) substitution of wood and charcoal in small industries. 3.85 Consumption of wood in rural areas represents most of Haïtis wood consumption, and thus could prove to be an important point of action for the householf energy strategy. However two factors limit interest for an intervention in this domain: (a the real deforestation impacts of firewood consumption are still not certain: wood wastes frequently are generated by clearing the land and by pruning, practices which cannot be disassociated from agricultural practices; [page 75] 60 - (b) promotion of improved stoves in rural areas, even those initiated by very active promoters, generally have had very limited impacts and the results have been very disappointing with regard to the means employed, due to the characteristics of wood use in rural areas: non-monetarized wood collected for self-consumption. 3.86 The kerosene market in Haïti seems to be relatively small, especially if gas prices are reduced. Its use should be promoted as one of the alternatives, less important than gas but nonetheless valid, to charcoal. However, given the scantness of its the market, the private sector should be left to initiate promotion of this fuel. Further recommendations are: (a) that in the course of actions to promote substitution at national level, the ‘ Government advance kerosene as one vf the alternatives to charcoal; (b) that the BME test the different models available on the market or those distributed in other countries (Colombia and Peru, for example); (©) that the BME make itself known to Haïti Métal and other possible importers of kerosene stove models as a source of policy and technical assistance, and that it refer them to foreign manufacturers. 3.87 Substitution of wood and charcoal by petroleum products (kerosene, diesel or fuel oil) or by biomass-based fuels (for instance biogas producéd from molasses in the guildives 11/ in small urban- or rural-based industries has not been included among the priority topics for the (a) ovérall consumption by these industries only represents about 5% of the total consumption of wood-based fuels (firewood, charcoal) in Haïti; (b) this substitution does not appear to be profitable in a number of cases: especially the economic conditions of substituting diesel in the guildives are not met (See Annex X). . (c) the most dynamic of these companies, those which can afford to make investments (bakeries, dry-cleaners, oil factories) have already switched to other fuels; (d) in the context of Haïtÿs current economic conditions, the other companies’ willingness and ability to invest is less certain: the oil-manufacturing sector, for instance, has been in the midst of a structural crisis for several years; A/ The MARNDR is currently implementing a demonstration project on this technology. [page 76] -61- ._ (e) finally, actions taken for the residential sector, mainly those which favor the lowering of gas prices, should have a secondarÿ positive impact on small enterprises (restaurants, for example). 3.88 BME should make itself known to the companies so that it can be consulted by those who wish to renovate their infrastructure; BME could provide advise, suppliers’ referrals and, when possible, prefeasibility studies of substituting other fuels for wood. [page 77] . -6- ° IV. STRATEGY COMPONENTS 4.1 The proposed Strategy is centered on three priority components designed according to the principle objectives outlined in the preceding chapter and taking into account the problems and constraints found in the sector. Less urgent actions and those with limited impacts have been omitted. The three strategy components are: ‘ (a) opening the gas market, (b) charcoal conservation, (c) moderniing the charcoal sector. 42 Besides, a fourth priority component targets the coherence of actions undertaken as part of the strategy: (a) strategy monitoring 43 The above listing of the strategy’s components do not imply priority ranking. Indeed, as pointed out in Chapter 3, implementing the four recommended components concomitantiy and in a coordinated way is necessary to reach the main objectives of the Strategy, ie. to curb down Charcoal consumption and to increase the sustainability of charcoal production. Moreover, if the components had to be ranked, the result would obviously depend on the criteria chosen to compare the components. For instance, if easiness of implementation was the main criterion, the charcoal conservation component would rank first; however, if impact on charcoal consumption is the priority, then opening the gas market ranks first, while if the issue is to achieve sustainable charcoal production in the medium term, modernizing the charcoal sector becomes the main component. In anÿ case, the component for policy formulation and strategy coordination is necessary to the success of each one of the three other components. 44 The outcomes expected from implementation of the strategy’s three components are summarized in Figure 4.1. Details are provided in Annex IX. The strategy will be implemented over a three year period (1992-1994), but evaluation of the costs and benefits of project outcomes will extend over ten years (1992-2001). The latter corresponds more closely with the typical energy sector planning horizon. Projections of fuel consumption and market penetration rates for improved appliances or for substitution fuels are compared for two scenarios: implementation of [page 78] -63- the strategy versus no change in relation to the consumption patterns in 1990 (percentage of users and unit of consumption for each fuel). 12/ 45 The main outcomes of the Strategy will be to: (i) curb down the rapid increase of charcoal consumption and stabilize charcoal consumption; and (ii) to gradually transform - for the larger possible share - the remaining charcoal production into a sustainable, financially profitable (a) _ gradual reduction of charcoal consumption in Port-au-Prince and in main cities (and thus reduction of the pressure on national forest resources) of 13% (relative to 1991 consumption) by the year 2000, and of 45% relative to the consumption projected for 2001 assuming no changes. Annual charcoal consumption would stabilize at around 200,000 tons in 2001, assuming that new households (population growth) would all use LPG. This reduction of charcoal consumption will be induced by - dissemination of improved stoves and substitution by gas with the following expected results: (i) gradual increase in the proportion of urban consumers using gas as the primery fuel; the objective is 35% of Port-au-Prince households in 1996 and 50% in 2001. In other cities, the objective figures are 10% and 20% respectively. This would induce gas consumption to rise from the current 7,000 tons per annum to 23,000 tons in 1996 and 41,000 tons in 2001; (ï) annual sales of butane portable stoves and gas cookers should reach 35,000 and 10,000 units respectively by 2001; more than 90% of the sales are expected in Port-au-Prince; (ii) by the year 2001, in Port-au-Prince and the main cities, one out of every two charcoal consumer will be using an improved stove, as well as one of every two manjé kwit restaurant, for a total of 80,000 stoves put into use between 1992 and 1994. - (b) improved conditions for producing charcoal and rationalization of access to forest resc“rces in the main charcoal exploitation zones, manifested through the following outcomes: 12/ A trend scenario with consumption patterns in the future is based on the assumption ae comervation sad subetiruion ceiling has been reached (gas penetration of improved stoves). [page 79] : . ° 64 ° () definition and implementation of a Supply Master Plan for Port-au-Prince, including the improvement of the fiscal system and of the control of charcoal flows (collection rate for transport taxes rising from 10% in 1990 to 60% in 1996); (ä) training 500 professional charcoal producers in the use of higher yield charcoal making techniques and in simple methods of improved management. This would cover one of every 100 charcoal makers, spread out over the main charcoal exploitation zones and, to a lesser extent, in the zones under quotas. au + Expected Impect of the Strategy x*1000 tons of charcoal x1000 tons of gas 400 50 350 CS em ° . _…. . .. à 40° 300 ss ……. DES = a A 250 ang Fri ° TT . | | ‘ | | 30 150 innnmememceumee __ 1 20 : 1007 - À |-- | | 10 50 ET kr - . à . | | £ Ë 0 i 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 - _— Charcoal (trend) +. Charcoal (strategy) + Charcoal (without improved stoves) . Æ Gas (trend) [3 Gas (strategy) 46 In addition, the economic consequences of the strategy are expected to be the following: | [page 80] - 65 - (a) increase in the total cost of petroleum product imports by 12% in the year 2001, all other things remaining equal. This represents an increase equivalent to 4% of total country exports in 1990, which is relatively small; 13/ (b) charcoal income in the main production zones will be maintained (and under normal circumstances will actually increase, because of efforts taken to improve the producer price in real terms). Opening the Gas Market 47 * Although it is the best choice for the country in both economic and financial terms, and as the preferred -- and potentially the least expensive -- fuel among consumers, gas suffers from a limited distribution in Haiti because of the current import and distribution system for the fuel. The strategy component addressing the opening of the gas market has several objectives: (a) to obtain a significant reduction in the retail prices of butane and propane, by creating conditions of real competition in the supply of gas or by regulating the existing monopoly; and (b) to facilitate access to gas usage and the acquisition of gas equipment for the lower income classes (middle class, upper levels of the poorer households) to induce its use as a primary cooking fuel. 48 The Haitian institution responsible for developing this project component should be the Division for Petroleum Product Supply (BAPP) within the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, in association with the BME. Within the framework of the strategy, the BAPP should: (a) coordinate work on a preliminary study of the different potential options for importing and distributing gas, in association or in competition with the existing importer and distributors, including necessary reform of the existing legal and regulatory framework. (see the detailed terms of reference in Annex XT), (b) propose the most favorable option(s) to the Government, then monitor and control : proper implementation of the option adopted, 13/ These numbers are only indicative since the value of exports and the cost of imported petroleum products can fluctuate widely. In the case of oil price, despite some unpredictable and large variations, there seems to be a long-term trend for an annual increase of 2 to 3 % in real terms. This assumption leads to an average CIF price of about US$250/ton for LPG on the 1992-2001 period (also accounting for the decreasing cost of transport, which is linked to increasing volumes of gas used). [page 81] -66- (c) propose adjustments needed for contracts, regulatory legislation, and fiscal policy which conform to the adopted option and more generally, to the other components of the strategy. 49 The technical options for opening the gas market which should be analyzed are detailed in the preceding chapter. They are the following: (a) importing gas from the Dominican Republic, 14/ (b) creating a marine terminal and an autonomous storage and filling center, ; (c) enlargement of existing receiving, storage and filling infrastructure. For each potential option (alone or combined), the various possibilities of partnerships with private or institutional operators, foreign or national, should be examined, along with the legal, regulatory and fiscal consequences associated with the option(s). | 4.10 The component to open the gas market specifically includes the following activities: (a) financing for a study of the different potential options, (b) support to the BAPP 50 that the institution participates directly in the analyses and missions, and so that afterwards it has the ability to carry out its regulatory function in the subsector. (©) the estimated total for engineering studies and investments. 4.11 The estimated costs of the component conservatively take into account the most expensive option -- implementation of an autonomous gas terminal, including filling center. The investment hypotheses are sufficient for meeting increasing butane and propane demand up to 1996. They are: (a) a gas terminal, equipped with two pumps and two gas pipelines (vapor 3°, liquid: 6") of approximately 2 kms, 14/ Analysing this option should include the careful evaluation of associated risks of variation in the economic and contracting conditions of gas supply from the Dominican Republic. . [page 82] -67- (b) main storage capacity of 1500 tons, 15/ divided into five pressurized tanks with 300 ton capacity, with a fire prevention safety system (water tank and pumps), (c) a filling system (with fire prevention safety dry system) equipped with eight balances with a maximum capacity equivalent to 60 tons/day (in two 8-hour cycles), capable of filling 3/6 kg and 12.5 kg containers, 16/ (d) an inventory of 230,000 3-kg containers (or 115,000 6-kg containers) and 100,000 . 12.5-kg containers. 17/ 412 - The total budget for this component is estimated at US$ 7.6 million (see Table 4.1 and Annex XIV). This total includes US$ 7.2 million ih capital investments (all or a large part from private sources) and budgetary support for the BAPP of US$ 370,000, including the study of gas development options. Charcoal Conservation 413 Objectives. Even under optimistic hypotheses for substitution by other fuels, a considerable proportion of households - an estimated one of every two households on average in Haitis major cities -- will continue to use charcoal.. Distribution of improved charcoal stoves is thus an important component of the strategy. This component has two main thrusts: (a) large-scale distribriion of round improved stoves (BME model) to approximately 20% of the households in Port-au-Prince by the year 2001. This amounts to a total . of 45,000 stoves in distribution in the capital by the third year after the component is launched, 15,000 stoves in the other main cities (20% of all households), and 7,000 stoves to the manje kwit restaurants in all main cities, for a total distribution of 67,000 stoves during the first three years. . 15/ orage oqpivalent to about one month of gas consumption in 1996 (including existing storage - 16/ About 30 tons per day for each type of container. Numbers obtained by considering the preliminary following assumptions: butane and ou Donne peneraton rares as Ina pe IX houchold ve of Dutsne and propane 25 secondary cooking fuel in a number uf households equal to 50% of households using gas as primary fuel; 1.5 container per household in average; ditribuiont Conainee iock quai to 25% of households’ stock; annual container replacement ratio of 5% of total stock. [page 83] .6- | (b) development of an improved potaje stove, and distribution of 16,000 units throughout the capital and other main cities by the end of three years. 4.14 This represents an overall charcoal savings of nearly 15,000 tons in 1994, or about 8% of total charcoal consumption in Haitis main urban centers. 4.15 Action Priorities. In order to be successful, ‘istribution of improved stoves must take place in the context of several coordinated activities: (a) technical and marketing work for developing and testing stove models so that the . recommended models are both fuel efficient and adapted to consumer needs. One or more improved models of the potaje stove should be among those developed; ‘ {b) _astudy to review conditions for manufacturing (craftsmen, availability of sheet metal, "etc. ), marketing and promotiag th: two cookstove models in the main cities other than Port-au-Prince; (c) training for traditional stove makers and iron masons to manufacture improved stoves according to adopted standards of performance and quality; (d) making use of current traditional production networks for manufacturing improved stoves: rechauliers for the round stoves, iron-masons for making potaje stoves, with materials in use (recovered sheet metal, and subsequently new sheet metal probably); (e) making use of existing distribution networks for marketing the stoves: sales by producers or by small intermediaries under normal conditions for retail sales {without Government intervention on prices or margins); (fj a sustained publicity campaign, using different media outlets: especially radio, but also television stations and the printed press; (g) promotion activities in the field, makirs use of communication means of local (h) follow-up and evaluation of the results of the distribution program; and, () effective coordination between the different local organizations involved in: | promotion. 4.16 Institutional Framework. The best institutional set-up consists of bringing together the main actors already active in the area of improved stove 1, and to assign to them responsibilities in the areas where they are the strongest: [page 84] - 69 - (a) the BME for general supervision and coordination of the program through its Steering Unit (see para. 4.31-4.35), and more particularly for the technical aspects of research and development for the stoves; and (b) one or more NGOs for the following aspects: training craftsmen, publicity and promotion, follow-up and evaluation in the field. 4.17 Components. The improved stove distribution program contains four components. The first, product design and quality control, will be carried out by the BME. The main activities of the component will be to develop stove models (especially an improved potaje), technical testing of proposed models, and quality control for cookstoves under distribution. The BME will receive short-term technical assistance for product development (foreign assistance) and consumer trials (local assistance) and will work in collaboration with one or more local craftsmen for the design and manufacture of the improved stove models. The BME will be furnished with necessary testing equipment (test banks) and its operating means will be strengthened. The main program administrators also will be expected to make study tours to gain from the experiences with improved stove programs in other countries. 4.18 The second component is a training component for craftsmen. The distribution objectives are based on training of 100 rechauliers (70 in Port-au-Prince and 30 in other cities) and 50 iron-masons (35 in Port-au-Prince and 15 in the other main cities -- Cap Haitien, Gonaïves, Les Cayes and St Marc. Several main areas will be covered in the training: improved manufacturing techniques, use of recovered or new sheet metal (with templates), parameters which affect the efficiency and durability of the stoves, benefits of using improved stoves, marketing . techniques, etc. 4.19 ” The third component includes (i) organizing publicity campaigns through iocal and national media and (ii) field promotion for the stoves. The general design, organization and implement: on of publicity campaigns will be the responsibility of Haitian public relations professionals. Campaigns will emphasize the advantages of improved stoves over traditional portable cookstoves, both from the consumer standpoint (charcoal savings, rapid and better controlled cooking, more durable appliance) and from the standpoint of the nation (reduced environmental degradation). Field promotion of the stoves is an important element for the success of the distribution program, as has been demonstrated by several recent (and successful) stoves : projects, notably in Kenya (Jiko stove), in Niger and in Mali (Mai Sauki stove) or in Rwanda (Rondereza stove). Promotion techniques will include neighborhood exhibitions, contests and games, "moving" publicity (pick-up trucks with loud speakers) and standard "stationary” publicity (posters, stickers, T-shirts, etc.) Proper and efficient techniques for using the stoves will be explained and demonstrated, as well as energy-saving techniques for cooking (soaking grains, use of aluminum pots and lids, new recipes, etc.) The field promotion, encompassing Haïtiÿs main cities, will have three poles -- Port-au-Prince, the north (Gonaïves, Cap Haïtien and St Marc) and [page 85] -7- the south (Les Cayes). Groups of promoters will be assigned to each of the cities (four in Port- au-Prince and one in each of the other four cities). Educational and promotional documents will be developed with short terin local technical assistance. To the extent possible, the coordinating | NGO will make use of local groups for organizing the actual stove distribution. 4.20 The fourth component, program follow-up and evaluation, will be carried out by an NGO in tight coordination with the BME. It will comprise several points: a survey of improved stove users six months after the start of the distribution program (charcoal consumption, level of consumer satisfaction, correct use of the stoves, use of other recommended methods for improving cooking efficiency); regular and selective quality control for stoves manufactured by craftsmen (by a qualified inspector); evaluation of the manufacture and marketing of stoves (quantities produced, prices and margins, distribution network); evaluation of actual savings generated for charcoal (survey of a representative sample of consumers halfway through and at the end of the program, in 1994). 421 ‘The total budget for the improved stoves distribution program amounts to US$ 825,000; the breakdown of this total is indicated in Table 4.1 (see detailed annual budget and schedule of activities in Annex XIV). This program will be included in the Forest and ‘ Environmental Protection Project (as the Household Energy Conservation component, with an additional budget of US$68,000 for implementation supervision), to be financed mainly by IDA. Implementation of the FEPP is scheduled for the beginning of 1992. Modernizing the CI LS 42 The primary objective of the third component of the strategy, modernization of the Charcoal sector, is to reorganize ard rationalize charcoal exploitation. This component targets the geographic reorientation of charcoal offtake and the improvement of charcoal exploitation techniques to reduce environmental risks, while designing and implementing the component in collaboration and agreement with local population. Activitie= carried out as part of this component also should strengthen the Haitian Government’s ability to better control charcoal transport, especially towards the capital, so that collection of associated taxes on the transport and marketing of charcosl proves more effective. Modernization of the charcoal sector consists of two sub- components: (8) preparation of a Supply Master Plan for Port-au-Prince, and (b) implementation of a technical assistance program for charcoal producers. [page 86] -71- | 423 The Supply Master Plan for Port-au-Prince targets the geographic reorientation of the wood offtake used to produce charcoal consumed in the capitäl. The Master Plan will be based on field visits as well as existing resource mappings and those that will be prepared (fragmentary existing data, preliminary results of the resource inventory planned as part of the FEPP) and existing data on wood offtake (studÿ results, specific complementary surveys). The Plan will highlight two types of zones which will receive priority during strategy implementation: (a) preferential zones, where it would be better to locate wood offtake (among those whcre charcoal exploitation already takes place), and the approximate annual offtake which would be permissible; (b) zones where the current rhythm of charcoal exploitation presents present or future environmental threats, which will be placed under observation and protection, with the cooperation of and under the responsibility of local populations and villages. 424 The Master Plan then must give conditions for redirecting wood offtake: (a) by establishing maps on which the principal parameters which determine the conditions for charcoal exploitation are quantified: price of standing wood, land tenure patterns (public and private domain) and parcelling of land, socio-economic profile of farmers/charcoal producers, main economic activities and impact of charcoal production in the rural economy; (6) by analyzing the exploitation conditions in priority zones and the mechanisms by which supply networks can be reorganized within the framework of existing rural development programs; . (c) by defining a possible program for compensating charcoal producers in the zones affected by quotas. 425 With regard to regulating charcoal production and supply, the Master Plan should establish the modalities to: (8) define and implement a simple and flexible mechanism for determining transport quotas for charcoal originating from each region, and allow for quota negotiations between the State, the local authorities and charcoal sector professionals; (b) define and implement mechanisms for enforcing the geographic reassignment of wood offtake by strengthening control of charcoal transport by both land and sea: in Port-au-Prince, establish more highway control posts (to control the quantities of [page 87] Charcoal originating from the central plateau and from the south) and more control of the waterways (Cité Soleil wharf); improve the existing operating conditions at control posts in the capital, especially for sea transport (Lamantin, Mariani, Martissant); relocate several highway control posts (around Port-au-Prince and Cap Haïtien). (©) implement mechaniems for monitoring the effectiveness of the control systems and (d) identify the principal parameters related to taxation on a regional basis in order to properly orient exploitation towards specific zones, and propose appropriate fiscal arrangements. 42% During the second phase of the Master Plan, a program of priority actions will be prepared for compensating losses due to the restrictions on charcoal exploitation in areas affected by the quotas. In each affected district, a united effort to identify actions specific to the local) situation will form the foundation of this program. Local administrators and technicians will take the lead in defining the action program, with assistance from a specially recruited multidisciplinary team consisting of two rural sociologists and two agronomists (at least one with forestry experience and one rural engineer). Local priorities will be defined for each district, with the cooperation of | local authorities and populations, and the resulting proposals will be consolidated into a priority action program to complement or -trengthen existing rural development programs in these areas. Steps then will be taken to mobilize additional funds needed to implement the recommended actions. 427 Finally, the Master Plan could provide the geographic skeleton for a comprehensive action program for woodfuel supply (assistance to professionals, forestry management, agroforestry), ‘ and especially in the framework of the strategy, allow local priorities for support to charcoal producers to be determined. | | 428 The subcomponent for technical assistance to charcoal producers has two basic objectives: (a) to improve the conditions of charcoal exploitation by more selective exploitation of available resources, to promote the use of the best techniques for cutting and carbonization and to improve the charcoal makers’ management and organization of their business; (b) to complete the knowledge of forestry technicians employed by the MARNDR concerning the constraints and potential actions within the charcoal sector, and to [page 88] -73- thus assure complementarity between planning functions (Master Plan) and field - actions. 429 A mobile intervention team should be established as part of an NGO based in close proximity to the zones in question (probably in the Artibonite or the North Peninsula) to carry out the proposed assistance program. The team should consist of a forester, a training administrator and 10 field trainers, divided into two carbonization teams. The tasks of the mobile intervention team, which will receive short-term technical assistance from experts in artisanal carbonization, will be: (a) in the first phase, to identify and evaluate the production methods in use in the zones concerned, the problems affecting charcoal producers (especially vzith regard to access to wood), environmental problems caused by iocal charcoal exploitation and possible solutions; () to organize hands-on training sessions in charcoal-making techniques in production workshops. These sessions can be offered on a regular, systematic basis in priority zones, district by district, or they can be organized on the request of rural development organizations (NGOSs, Projects); ‘ (©) to gradually assist the organization of some of the charcoal makers into professional groups by helping them to acquire simple management techniques and tools essential for their vocation. 430 The component to modernize the charcoal sector should be implemented by a specialized temporary unit, the Woodfuels Unit (Cellule Combustitles Ligneux - CCL), to be established within the Natural Resources Department of the MARNDR. The CCL will be provided with support from outside consultants, Haitian experts (sociologists, survey experts, charcoal makers) and by NGOs working in the field. The staff of the CCL, to be recruited for the Project (a) one Unit Chief, a forest exploitation expert, (b) a technical team composed of a forestry inventory expert, a sociologist, an agro- economist and a-cartographer, (c) one administrative assistant, one secretary and three drivers. 431 The CCL vwill be responsible for preparing the Master Plan and for improving the control and monitoring of charcoal supply, as well as for preparing the priority action program. It will supervise implementation of the program of assistance to charcoal producers which will be implemented by a NGO. The CCL also will ensure that its activities are closely coordinated with [page 89] dt Ad (Lu ul HT PE jh (il RL ! US 16 QE Mit) djrsl à CHAT JS QU ME Cu {M fa Bnl (UE jE À ja UE LEA TETE HER Hi HR art he spa LH HE lité Ile BE | AH Ë de L [page 90] D .—.--- -15- medium term (used in part to fund the national forestry fund) this activity will be coordinated with, or could be replaced by the study of woodfuel taxation and control which is planned in the proposed Forestry and Environment Protection Project; and (ä) _ implement a low level gas tax — a level which does not adversely affect efforts to lower the price of this fuel in order to promote its use in urban Haitian households, The tax will facilitate the State’s involvement in new investments for the gas subsector. The financial analysis of the Project arrived at a minimum value of 5 US cents, assuming that the State’s share of investments in gas importation and distribution is only 20%. (d) establish close coordination with ongoing projects which are related to certain strategy components (for example, the Forestry and Envirc:.“ental Protection Project, the AOP Project, and the Energy Sector Strengthening Project). | 435 The SU could be set up within the BME or, if applicable, at a more adequate and influential location in the new institutional structure that will arise from institutional restructuring by the new Government. SU's staff, to be recruited for the project’s duration, will consist of: (a) an energy economist, Unit Chief, with at least five years experience in the various aspects of Haitian energy policy, (b) an expert in computerized data analysis, (c) one administrative assistant, one secretary and one driver. 43% In addition, the following specialized assistance will be provided for the SU: (a) one technical adviser for a three year period, (b) assistance from Haitian and international experts in the following areas: survey organization and implementation, computer assistance, rural and urban socio- economic analyses, fiscal and legal aspects, 437 This component will be carried out over a three year period. The total budget amounts to US$ 768,000 (see Table 4.1 and detailed budget in Annex XIV). A recurrent annual budget of US$S50,000 between 1995 and 1997 is planned for staff and operational costs of the SU, which wik thereafter be taken over by the host institution as part of its regular budget. [page 91] -%- Economic Aspects Strategy Costs 438 The summarized costs for the four strategy components are presented in Table 4.1; detailed annual budgets are given in Annex XIV. The total cost of the strategy is US$ 10.5 million over the three year period 1992-1994; three-fourths in foreign exchange and slightly less than 70% for the gas component alone 18/. Modernization of the charcoal sector represents 13% of total costs, and costs of the charcoal conservation and strategy monitoring components respectively represent 8% and 7% of the total. Estimated annual recurrent costs begin in 1995 at US$ 200,000 and decrease to US$50,000 by 2001; these costs concern mainly the component to modernize the charcoal sector and to a lesser extent the Strategy's monitoring component which are to be implemented over a longer period than the other components of the strategy. A small amount of additional funds will be required to assist the Government of Haiti in supervising the implementation of the strategy's components; the exact amount of these funds and the procedures for co-supervision will depend on the practices of the bilateral/multilateral donors involved in the strategy's financing and should be defined later with these donors. . It should-be noted that the State’s participation in these investments for developing the 18/ Market boul bo very Haited (he nasclal anus fer Dre oualegy asumes Le Suis * share in these investments is only 20%). [page 92] -71- Iable 4,1: Summarized Budget of the Strategy!s Components uss Xof %Xin for. (1000) costs currency 1. OPENING THE GAS HARKET sr 72 g | Cptions revieu 8é 100 Support to BAPP 226 8 Investments 1/ . 6000 89 Contingencies 1260 8 2. CHARCOAL SAVINGS 2/ 825 8 a Product develosment and coordination 98 . 73 ° ‘ Craftsmen training 48 31 - Publicity end field promotion 38% 8 - . Monitoring and evaluation 104 12 Contingencies 191 26 3. MODERNIZATION OF THE CHARCOAL SECTOR 1357 15 2 Woodfuels Unit 356 M PAP Supply Kaster Plan/Control improvement 375 3 - . Compensation Progrem Definition 198 ès Technical Asafstance to Charcoal makere 305 20 Contingencies 123 30 4. STRATEGN HOMTTOR TU 7e 7 8 Techn£cal Assistance 420 a Miscel Laneous 170 7 | Contingencies ui 6 GRAND TOTAL 3/ 152 100 18 :71 Of which 80% private. F1 Investment included in FEPP. 3/7 Of which onty US$5.8 million are public sector investment. | | 439 The simplified economic and financial analysis for the strategy is summarized in Table 4.2 and 43. Economic benefits of the strategy’s implementation which are accounted for in this simplified analysis come mainly from the value of charcoal that is saved through the programs of LPG substitution and improved stoves dissemination. Implementing the modernization of the charcoal sector will transform part of charcoal production into an environment-benign activity in certain zones of production and limit the impact of this activity in other zones, which are indeed the potentially larger benefits of the strategy. However, it is clear that the extend of these benefits will depend on the Government interventions on the other causes of environment degradation in Haiti (in the framework of a global strategy for natural resources management) as well as an efficiency of the strategy's quota system; therefore these benefits are difficult to quantify and have not been considered in the simplified economic analysis cf this study. Also the costs and benefits of the compensation program for areas affected by quotas, to be defined later and to be implemented through mechanisms beyond the scope of the proposed strategy, cannot be accurately estimated at this stage, and thus have been excluded from the analysis. [page 93] .78- 4.40 The strategy's impact on public finances can be evaluated through the financial analysis; the financial internal rate of return (IRR) is calculated at 10%. The analysis is based on the following assumptions: () _ improved collection of charcoal taxes amounting to a collection rate of 60% of the total due in 1996 (ie. six times the collection rate in 1990) and the same rate thereafter; the MARNDR'Ss ongoing efforts to improve tax collection rates should help make it possible to achieve this objective; the analysis also takes into account . the loss of charcoal taxes that would have been recovered in absence of the strategy | (with a higher total charcoal consumption), (b) a tax on gas beginning in 1992 of 5 cents per gallon, equivalent to only 3% of the 1990 retail price. Jable 6,2: Financial anelysie c1000us8) 1992 1993 19M 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 . ET Project coste 1511 1141 3195 200 200 200 100 109 50 50 Charcoal taxes 10 2 30 # 49 6 7 TS 7 Sub Total 1515 1151 3217 20 239 29 160 170 123 17 BEXEFITS Charcoal taxes 122 262 366 649 561 524 498 486 49 515 Gas taxes @&B “és 439 541 GS 773 877 920 965 Sub Total . 122 490 688 682 1082 1169 1271 1361 1619 1480 Balance -1293 “661 -2529 652 843 921 1110 1191 129% 1353 Consolidated © -1395 -2056 “4585 3931 -3088 -2167 -1057 134 1630 2783 FIRR 9.8% NPV (10X) -28 \ 441 The economie analysis shows the strategys impacts on the national economy, especially those related te the balance of payments and reducing environmental destruction. The economic IRR was calculated at 40%, based on the following assumptions: [page 94] -79- (a) The economic value of the wood saved by implementation of the strategy 19/ is estimated at US$160/ton of saved charcoal, equivalent to its economic value for environmental impacts (see Annex XII); (b) reduction of gas transport costs relative to costs for the volumes which would have been sold if nn strategy were implemented is estimated at US$ 100 per ton on average for the period 1994-2001; . (c) additional gas imports would cost in average US$250 per ton over the 1991-2001 period, and imports of gas cooking appliances would cost an average of US$150 for - each new gas-using household for the period 1992-2001. Jsbleau 6,3: Econonte Analysis CI0ODUSS) | 1992 1995 19% 195 1996 1997 198 1999 2000 2001 cosrs Project costs 1511 1263 7755 200 200 200 100 100 50 50 Equipment importe 597 927 1962 179% 2188 2097 2601 2082 739 775 Ges importe 286 731 1663 2525 3575 4581 5830 6829 718 7556 Sb Total 239% 2921 11360 4519 5963 6878 28531 9011 7973 4381 BEXEFITS Charcoal sevings 885 2166 4719 6471 8597 10666 13171 15220 16024 16988 Ges savings 689 717 747 718 810 843 878 91 Sub Total ses 2166 4581 6060 7555 925 11070 13371 15852 18528 . Balence 1509 -775 -5952 2669 3382 4546 5650 7052 8929 9422 Consolidated © “1509 -2284 -8236 -5567 -2185 2359 7800 16861 23790 33212 ELRR 40.3X — NPV (10%) 13509 Risks 442 Risks linked to strategy implementation were evidenced in the previous chapterss they relate to several aspects: technical, social, economic, financial and institutional. However, these risks are quite limited relative to the environmental risk associated with not implementing this strategy. In addition, the financing required for the strategy is relatively small, and implementing the strategy in phases and under monitoring of the Steering Unit will allow necessary adjustments to be made, if needed. - _ 49/ Without taking into account wood savings generated by the proposed assistance program for charcoal producers. In fact, since the program only affects a limited number of charcoal are uncertain, wood savings from this program will be much smaller than the savings generated by use of improved stoves. [page 95] - 80 - 443 In technical areas, risks are associated with market penetration rates for LPG and improved charcoal stoves; target rates for the strategy may be over optimistic. However, the market study has yielded fairly reliable projections; also, the impacts of lower penetration rates on the economic and financial viability of the strategy are limited. For example, if gas were used as the primary cooking fuel in only 35% of the households in the capital, and 15% in other cities, the financial rate of return would decrease by only 1.5% (in absolute terms) and the economic rate of return by 1%. The impacts due to lower distribution rates for stoves are even less. Furthermore, negative technical impacts ccald easily be counterbalanced by appropriate taxing policies applied to the gas price. For.example, a collection rate for charcoal taxes amounting only to 30% at the | end of five years (instead of the 60% rate targeted by the strategy) can be balanced by a gas tax increase of 1.2 US cents per gallon; this represents an increase of less than 1% relative to the retail price. 4,44 In the area of social and human risks, the most substantial impacts will be those generated by restricting charcoal exploitation in zones affected by quotas or prohibitions. The producers and transporters in these zones will initially attempt -- certainly not without success — to circumvent the quota system. However, dialogue with local authorities, gradual increases in effective enforcement of quotas and priority actions programs for compensation should limit these risks in the medium term. 445 On the economic level, there are certain risks surrounding the evolution of international LPG prices, as well as the economic value of charcoal in terms of its impact on the environment. With regard to the latter, a rather conservative value was retained in the analyses; given the various growing pressures on Haitis environment, the value will tend to increase, If the average price of LPG during 1992-2001 is US$350 per ton (1990 dollars), instead of the estimated US$250, the economic IRR would still be quite acceptable (23%). Finally, the impact of LPG | imports on the balance of payments would remain limited; in 2001, LPG imports at this higher price . would represent less than 6% of the value of exports in 1990. 4.46 Institutional risks are much higher, since they involve financial, human and political constraints, as previously cited. However, the proposed approach for the strategy is helpful in mitigating the risks due to the weaknesses of subsector institutions — involving consumers and producers in the definition and implementation of the strategy, decentralizing activities and giving specific roles to local authorities, coordination and monitoring by temporary units established especially for the project, partial sub-contracting of implementation to organizations and associations already operating in the field, strengthening the regulatory role of the State. Financing ‘ 4417 As discussed previously, one component of the strategy -- large-scale distribution of improved charcoal stoves -- is included in the IDA'’s proposed Forestry and Environmental [page 96] -81- Protection Project. The other components will be part of the National Energy Plan which is being prepared by the BME with assistance from OLADE and the UNDP in the Haiti Energy Sector Strengthening Project. The Strategy’s components should also be among the programs that will confirm the Tropical Forest Action Plan for Haiti, which is being prepared under the supervision of FAO and the UNDP. Considering the urgency of implementing the strategy, obtaining the | necessary financing should be among the Government’ priorities and should be relatively easy, given the recent increase of international assistance to Haiti The Ministry of Planning, with possible assistance from the BME and the MARNDR, should first explore possibilities for bilateral financing from lenders already active in Haitis energy sector, woodfuels subsector and forestry sector, especially France, Canada, USAID and Germany. Canada, France and the European Economic Communities (EEC) have already expressed interest in financing actions to limit the impact of charcoal use in the environment. Finally, other resources might also be tapped at the level of international donors, e.g. from programs supported or supervised by the World Bank, such as the Haiti Economic and Social Fund, ESF (for instance to finance specific compe=sation programs in areas under charcoal production quotas) or the recently created Global Environment Facility (GEF). [page 97] - 82- Annexe ] Page 1 de 8 RESSOURCES FORESTIERES ET DEFORESTATION VOLUMES SUR PIED EN 1978 |__ Surfaces "1 Stock | |__ (1000 ha)] _(%)] (1000 m3)] (%) orets de feuillus denses 219| 1% 3291! 7% degradees 62.1| 2% 8103| 6% secondaires 97.9| 4% 3916| 8% Forets de pin denses 92} 0% 1373| 3% . claires 247! 1% 1112] 2% tres claires 474] 2% 7111 1% Formations agropastorales forets de prosopis 11.8] 0% 710| 1% Rack bois (dense) 99.2| 4% 2975| 6% . Formations buisennantes (claires) 176.9] 6% 3538| 7% Mangroves 17.01 1%| : 850) 2% Cultures arborees denses 199.6) 7% 7984! 16% (vergers, cafeleres) Cultures arborees et vergers clairs 453.1] 16% 9062| 18% Reste de l'espace 1548.8| 56% 10840! 22% ° (cultures herbacses, jacheres courtes, savanes, affleurements, etc...)| TOTAL - : 2769.5 100% 49465 100% VOLUMES SUR PIED EN 1988 [__ (1000 ha)] (%)] (1000 m3)! (%)] Forets de fouillus denses 141 1% 2100! 4% degradees 60| 2% 2500| 5% secondaires 80| 3% 3200| 6% Forets de pin ° denses 8] 0% 1200| 2% claires 20| 1% 600| 1% tres claires 40! 1% 520| 1% Formations agropastorales forets de prosopis 5} 0% 250! 1% ; Rack bois (dense) 100! 4% 2500| 5% Formañons buisonnantes (claires) 185] 7% 2405| 5% . [Mangroves 15! 1% 525| 1% Cultures arborees denses 170| 6% 5100| 10% (vergers, cafeiores) Cultures arborees et vergers clairs 400! 14% 6400! 13% Reste de l'espace 1682| 61% 10095! 20% (cultures herbacees, jacheres courtes, savanes, affleurements, etc...) [TOTAL 2769 100% 37395 | 76% Source B.D.P.A., 1989 [page 98] - 83 - Annexe Page 2 de 8 IMPACT DE LA CONSOMMATION ENERGETIQUE DE BOIS DE FEU ET DE CHARBON DE BOIS SUR LA RESSOURCE FORESTIERE Variante de base (a partir des donnees B.D.P.A. 1989) HYPOTHESES : : SP DR PE ame er ras der à Stock dé bols ën 1878; TT F84626 000 Tonnes 5." "#i if" Croit moyen du bois : [_____68%lparan Rythme annuel de plantation : [_______ 81millions de pleds survivants Croit annuel d'1 pied : [______10}Kg/an B. Hypotheses sur la demande ‘ - | Croissance population rurale : Consommation rurale de bois : [___500!Kg/cap/an . Croissance population urbaine : [315%] Consommation charbon en 1989 : [_____ 805]000Tonnes . | soit par capita : [____0.52IKg/cap/jour Croissance consommation de charbon: | _ 315%] oo RESULTATS : | [___19907 2000] 2010] 2020] Ressource forestiere : [281 131-871 151] (Millions de tonnes) Consommation de charbon [315] 429] 585] 798] (Milliers de tonnes) [page 99] - 8 - Aaonexe | | ‘ Page 3 de 8 IMPACT DE LA CONSOMMATION ENERGETIQUE DE BOIS DE FEU ET DE CHARBON DE BOIS SUR LA RESSOURCE FORESTIERE Variante : ressource forestière de 1978 supérieure de 25 % ‘ HYPOTHESES : | HElBtook de bols on 1978 : 555 Etre OCO Tonnes #5" rt " Croît moyen du bois : [__8%lparan Rythme annuel de plantation : [8 Imilione de pieds survivants Croît annuel d'1 pied : [____410] Kg/an B. Hypothèses sur la demande Croissance population ruraie: . 1.40% ° : Consommation rurale de bois : [__ soo! Kg/cap/an . Croissance population urbaine: : ‘8.15% . Consommation charbon en 1989 : 2. 000 Tonnes ‘ ° % soit par capita : Kg/cap/jour Croissance consommation de charbon 8.15% RESULTATS : [__1990 [2000 [ _2010[ 2021 Ressource forestière: [____60[ 58] 65] es] - (Millions de tonnes) / Consommation de charbon [__: 315 [ 429 [ 685 [ 786 | (Milliers de tonnes) . . [page 100] + 85- Annexe J Page 4 de 8 IMPACT DE LA CONSOMMATION ENERGETIQUE DE BOIS DE FEU ET DE CHARBON DE BO.° SUR LA RESSOURCE FORESTIERE Variante : accélération du reboisement agroforestier HYPOTHESES : . À Hypothèses sur l'offre Stock de bois en 1978 : [84626 [000 Tonnes ‘ Lx Croit moyen du bois: Pa en “HAythme annuel de plantation :*;.%[71: "728 [millions de pieds survivants Croît annuel d'1 pied : [ 10 JKgran B. Hypothèses sur la demande Croissance population rurale ! 1.40% ° ‘ Consommation rurale de bois : , 500 |Kg/cap/an Croissance population urbaine : 3.15% Consommation charbon en 1989 : [sos | 000 Tonnes soit par capita : | ____0.52 [Kg/capijour | Croissance consommation de charbon [8.15% : . | RESULTATS: - [___1990 [20007 2010] 22] Ressource forestière: | 29] 19] 20]: 6 ° - (Millions de tonnes) ° Consommation de charbon |__315] 429 | 685] 7os (Milliers de tonnes) [page 101] "86 - Annexe I . Page 5 de 8 IMPACT DE LA CONSOMMATION ENERGETIQUE DE BOIS DE FEU ET DE CHARBON DE BOIS SUR LA RESSOURCE FORESTIERE ‘ Variante : réduction de moitié de la consommation totale de charbon de bois en 2000 HYPOTHESES : À. Hypothèses sur l'offre Stock de bois en 1978 : 000 Tonnes Croît moyen du bois : | ___ S%paran Rythme annuel de plantation : [3 [millions de pieds survivants Croît annuel d’1 pied : 10 |Kg/an . .B. Hypothèses sur la demande ° | Croissance population rurale : 1.40% Consommation rurale de bois : [ 6500 [Kg/cap/an J Groissance population urbaine: _: ‘ Consommation charbon en 1889 : 305 1000 Tonnes soit par capita: [0.62 IKg/cmphjour Croissance consommation fé charbon Re ‘| ResuLrars: | [_1890[ 2000 [ 2010[ 22] | Ressource forestière : [190 71 15] . (Millions de tonnes) . Consommation de charbon 815 [___161[ 82] 4] Milliers de tonnes) [page 102] - 87- ännexe I Page 6 de 8 IMPACT DE LA CONSOMMATION ENERGETIQUE DE BOIS DE FEU ET DE CHARBON DE BOIS SUR LA RESSOURCE FORESTIERE Variante : disparition du charbon de bois à Port-au-Prince en 2000 HYPOTHESES : À Hypothèses eur l'offre Stock de bois on 1978 : 000 Tonnes Croït moyen du bois : | ____B%paran Fÿthme annuel de plantation : [3 |millions de pieds survivants Croît annuel d'1 pied : [10 IKglan 8. Hypothèses sur la demande : Croissance population rurale : 1.40% . ‘| Consommation rurale de bois : | 500 Kg/cap/an Croissance population urbaine : | 3.15% Consommation charbon en 1989: | 305 |000 Tonnes | soit par capita : |___0.52 IKo/caprjour | Croissance consommation de charbon | 18.00% .. 1", pets RESULTATS : : C__1990 [20001 2010[ 202] Ressource forestière: [____29 [25 [ __ 23[ 24] (Millions de tonnes) Consommation de charbon [__ 315 | ____ 621 __12] 2] (Milliers de tonnes) ‘ \ [page 103] + 88- ânnexe I ‘ Page 7 de 8 Elaure A1,1: Ressource Forestière et Consommation de Conbustible Analyse de Sensibilité ea Liltions de tonnes) . n . eo Ressource forestilre de 1978 se supErieure_de-25-% | « so Varlante de base 20 + | Ressource foreètire de 1978 | : infErieure des % 0 CSD 26... D 7670600182026408 2807 60 69 60 9 10260 946596979099 0 1 2 8.4 5 6 7 8 9 101112191415 16 17 18 1620 . Annee Fiqure At.2: Ressource Forestière et Consommetion de Conbustible La Solution Agroforestière 40 Millions de tonnes) . s Plantation agroforestilre : te, 23 millions de pieds survivants par # Lo Variante de base | a SJarsenorescsoresese7cocudontoncsoieseseresus 0 1 219.5 8 7 © © 10111219 418161716 1020 Annee [page 104] - 89- Annexe Page 8 de 8 Figure A1.3: Ressource Forestière et Consommation de Conbustible Substitutions Scénario 1 «0 (Miliione de tonnes de 2 CTonnes de charbon) 4000 8 k SF RESSOURCE PORESTIERE ante de ÉSSe 2 > ece : NX 135 F CONSOMMATION REduction de moitie DE CHARBON DE.B6rS de la consommation + de cherbon de bois & TT 206€ 200 | Ne . 0 à LS 0 70708061828284850887990000018209849506070008 D 1 à 24 5 6 7 6 € 1011121844/51517191020 AnnEe : Fiaure Aî,4: Ressource Forestière et Consommation de Conbustible : Substitution: Scénario 2 0 Liitiors Se tonnes de bois) £ronnes de charbon) nn _ nn, 600 = le iéieene 600 © TT +5 FCONSONMATION nes DE CHARBON DE. ® EN Disparition progressive 200 à de Ta ÉGnSSMMatlon 8 de charbon de bois 0 SEE Te o + 78708081820304658607880000010203040556070800 D 1 23/4 5 6 7 8 Q 1011121914151617181020 . Ann£e [page 105] ° 90 - Annexe I] Page 1 de 4 PRIX DE L'ENERGIE DANS LES CARAÏBES ET EN AMERIQUE CENTRALE PRIX DES COMBUSTIBLES DANS LES CARAIBES ET EN AMERIQUE CENTRALE LP.G Kerosene Diesel Electricite domestique S/kg $/BB $/BBL) $/KWh Barbades 0.96 43.7 16.0 Costa Rica 0.27 443 443 4.1 Cuba 0.24 13.4 10.4 9.0 Grenade 1.08 478 68.9 0. 6 Si Sd Honduras 45.2 50.8 10.0 Jamaque 0.44 28.4 49.7 : Nicaragua 0.11 23.9 36.5 2.0 Panama 0,19 46.2 50.0 8.0 . Rp. Dominicaine 0.09 | 18.2| : . 16.5 47 . ‘Trinidad et Tobago 0.39 28.8 24.4 4.0 ° Source : OLADE, prix de Juin 1989 Li [page 106] - 91- âaneze I Page 2 de 4 Figure 42,1: Prix du G.P.L. en Juin 1989 Barbades à Haiti crevise) LL 1, Jamaique CE Trinidad et Tobago en ' Costa Alca p cube Paname ms Guatemala à Nicaragua Rap. Dominie=ine ED ° [=] 0.2 0.4 06 0.8 4 42 14 S/ ke Fait ravie : He en compte de ln ‘ ° prime sur te Eter laure A2.2: Prix du Kérosène en Juin 1989 Haiti cmominan 2 Grenade Panama : Lona DRE RENE DRE DRE ures TO costa Rica AT ‘ Barbades D , Guatemala Trinidad et Tobago um d Nicaragua mes s Rep. Dominicaine me Le) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 ($/ BBL) FR ravie Pprise en compte de 1 prime sur le Eitee [page 107] - 92- Annexe II Page 3 de 4 Figure A2.3: Prix du Diesel en Juin 1989 DR AE RE A A AE EE raliti (nominal) RENE Honduras nt RENE iaue RS DR RS ne es ph 1 1 | Coste Rica ! D Nicaragua RE men Trinidad et Tobago ue Rep. Dominicaine ‘ | Cube 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 . C$/ 881) FT ares DE lse en compte de le prime sur le Boiier ° * Fiaure 82.6: Prix de L'Electricité Domestique en Juin 1989 art roma LT os Barbades ; med Honduras usa Cube mana D Panama x Guatemala = = Rep. Dorninicaine L ° Costs Rica u J Trinidad et Tobago “ 2 . Nicaragua D 0 s 10 As 20 . CUS Cent, kWh) ESS BEI 7 compte de 1e [page 108] . - 93 - Annexe Il Page 4 de 4 PRIX MOYENS DES COMBUSTIBLES ET DES RECHAUDS A HAITI ET EN REPUBLIQUE DOMINICAINE . | ___ Hat _____]Rp. Dominicaine L_(Gourde)[ (US$) (Peso)] ___ (USS$)] Combustibles (prix de detail au kilo harbon de bois] . 1.05 0.15 2.00 0.81 Korosene 2.40 0.34 0.69 0.11 Gaz propane 8.66 0.52 0.63] : 0.10 Gaz butane 5.45 0.78 : Rechauds traditionnels a charbon Rechaud type potaje 80 65 Rechauds amellores a charbon nr nu Rechaud A.F.V.P. 2.9 | Prix au producteur Rechauds a kerosene | 1 feu 100 14 185 29 - 2 feux 155 22 240 88 8 feux 300 43 400 63 Rechauds a propane 2 feux 300 43 215 34 (1) 8 feux 425 61|. 250 891(1) 4 feux + four! 1500 214 1200 189](1) (2) . dE den gg À Bombonne vide de 50 kg . (8) Rechauds a butana NOTES : Hall : 1 US$ = 7 Gourdes prix mars 1990 ‘ Republique Dominicaine : 1 US$ = 6.35 Pesos prix mars 1989 (1) Bombonne non comprise (2) Prix minimum (3) Installation comprise - [page 109] | - sh + anse I Page 1des FOYERS EN USAGE À HAITI Dm A) rer RL 7e of \__ | 4 ÉsE 1 lrÀ Khaud Losd | (Baihen) : | | à charbon | . ° LE 2 D { . rs Nr | PERTE LE Le : ‘ F / à 4 * Réchaud Pota i e s À 4‘ [page 110] 95 - Annexe JUI Page 2 de S QD ne RQ 1 fee Chamére, de. 50 o 0, Côméushon R | ——— Corfs do foyer | KT + sufhart foyer améliore faïléy à charbon : D k : 5 mg RTE à ).! . . t \ | D \, ° 4 ne | EME à | . Kéchavd fit. Mel Avec deux {= (kérosje Stmècies) [page 111] - 96 - ânnexe III Page 3 de 5 Ustensile CR GRILLE | VASQUE i BRULEUR ST L ; 126 ROBINET | | 4 . _ D» TREPIED RESERVOIR “907” QI D . BIP (T' chéri) Rédhaul à butane [page 112] . 97. Annexe TI Page 4 de 5 | T BRULEUR - À ‘ HE nn VÉA —Vannc Fe Lu es" à a " DOS 5 . | . ° a t . D ma — —RESERVOR ÉRARE is . Te SUPPORT | foyer Colombie ävec deux feux | | r (Kéroñge sous pression) V4 ] (2 . te | Le ° HT : ù Ti tests 78 2% re Gas RAT Le n° EN À ° . \ + ° on . Fajer Colombe) avec Un fe (Kérosène Saus fression) ° [page 113] er À . - #53 à LS L CH le SE pe s NS OR f . ep & ! A: 4 _ mur ES 8 : : De fe 5 : Ps ce | 8 um Cu un [page 114] - 99 - Annexe IV ENTREES DE CHARBON DE BOIS 4 PORT-AU-PRINCE PROVENANCE DU CHARBON DE BOIS CONSOMME A PORT-AU-PRINCE À. COMPTAGE ENTREE EN VILLE (UNE SEMAINE, FEVRIER 1999 x 52) pi Route)" & fs "Men %f'.: “Total :.%] Departement | ‘ Nord 6280| 8% 0! 0% 5280! 6% Nord-Ouest] 8402| 13% 65140] 29% 13542| 16% Artibonite 16426| 25% 0! 0% 16426! 19% Centre 2278) 3% 0! 0% 2278| 3% - Ouest] 16992! 26% 28] 0% 17019} 20% . La Gonave 2247) 3% 8893| 22% 6139) 7% ° Grande-Ansel 7969! 12% 8817| 49% 16788) 20% Sud 2300| 3% 0! 0% 2300! 3% ‘ . Sud-Est 3369] 5% 82] 0% 3401| 4% Non identifiel 1077! 2% 0j 0% 1077} 1% TOTAL 66340 100% 17908 |100% 84249 100% %| 79% 21% 100% B. CONTROLE SERVICES FORESTIERS (PREMIER TRIMESTRE 1989 x 4) ; Er... + Mode de transport Tue CE Roue. #5. - Men | Total. % ‘ . Departement ° ord 636] 4% 0j 0% 636, 2% Nord-Oues 931| 7% 4737| 51% 5668| 26% Arübonitel 8465] 28% 109! 1% 3574] 16% Centre] 4284| 34% 0] 0% 4284| 20% Ouest o| 0% 3850! 42% 3850! 18% La Gonave 0| 0% 147! 2% 147! 1% Grande-Anse 3173) 25% 423! 5% 8595| 17% Sud 0! 0% 0] 0% 9] 0% Sud-Est 61| 0% 0! 0% 61| 0% . Non identifie 0, 0% 0] 0% 0! 0% TOTA 12449 |100% 9265 |100% 21714100% % 57% 43% 100% C. REDRESSEMENT DU COMPTAGE DES ENTRÉES Departement . ‘ Nord] 6280] 7% 0! 0% 5280| 4% Nord-Oues! 8402] 10% 18948) 40% 27350| 21% Artibonite 16426| 20% 0! 0% 16426! 13% Centrel 17185] 21% 0! 0% 171351 13% Ouest 16992! 21% 15399| 33% 32391| 25% La Ganave] 2247! 3% 9893] 8% 6139! 5% Grande-Anse] 7969| 10% 8817! 19% 16786| 13% Sud 2300| 3% 0! 0% 2300| 2% Sud-Est 3369! 4% 32! 0% 3401! 3% Non identifie 10771 1% 0! 0% 10771 1% TOTA 81197 |100% 47089 100% 128286 |100% % 63% 37% 100% [page 115] - 100 - Annexe V Page 1 de 4 ‘ STRUCTURES DE PRIX DU GAZ ET DU KEROSENE : COMPARAISON DES STRUCTURES DE PRIX DU KEROSENE ET DU GAZ Prix au détail EE LE TE Avrit 1990 Avril 1990 Avril 1990 l'(Cents/Gal) [__% | (Cents/Gal) | 9% | (Conts/Ga) | % | Prix F.O.B. 58.0 | 39% 84.0 # 29.0 # | Transport 2.2 % 28.8 % 29.7 % . Droit consulaire 1.7 # 1.0 96! 0.9 % Droits de wharfage 0.9 %6 0.7 % 0.6 % ° Droits de douane ‘ 0.0 % 0.0 0% 0.0 % Droits d’accises 60.0 36 0.0 % 6.0 36 CSSS SE TEA TE Marge des distributeurs 7.0 % 64.0 36 6.0 % Prix de l'énergie utile : | Avrii 1990 Avril 1990 Avril 1990 Prix F.O.B. 10.8 | 39% 7.2 % 6.1 % Em BISIBE Droit consulaire 0.3 6 0.2 % :_ 0.2 26 Droits de wharfage 0.2 # 0.1 % 0.1 % Droits d’accises 9.3 96 0.0 96 0.9 % RE Marge des distributeurs % 11.5 % % Source : G.A.P.P. (Kérosène, Propane), Shell (Butane) [page 116] . - = Annexe V 101 | Page 2 de 4 LA FACTURE DU GAZ | . Possibilités de réduction maximum des coûts 2.400.000 $/an PRIX CONTRACTUEL ° . 5 CENTS AU DESSUS DU PRX POSTING SPOT CARAIBES PROPANE Coût a l'économie 200.000 $/an Cents/Gallon FOB: 29 COUT DE TRANSPORT Transport, fret: 30 ——— ELEVE QU'IL SERAIT POSSIBLE DE DIMINUER DE 20 CENTS CIF: 59 Coût a l'économie Droits: 6 700.000 $/an Marges cumulées: 85 . Prix de vente: 150 MARGES SUREVALLEES ° DE 2 FOIS ENVIRON . Coût a l'économie 1.500.000 $/an [page 117] + 102 - ânnerz V Page 3 de 4 COMPARAISON DES STRUCTURES DE PRIX DU KEROSENE ET DU GAZ (PRIX DU G.P.L. REVISES) . Prix au detail = Avril 1990 Avril 1990 Avril 1990 PrixF.O.B] : 58.2] 39% 84.0! 56% 29.0] 48% Transport 221 1% 10.0| 16% 10.0! 17% Droit consulaire] 17] 1% 10! 2% 09! 1% . Prix C.LF. 61.9| 42% 45.0| 74% 39.9| 66% - Droits de wharfage 09! 1% 07| 1% 06| 1% Droits de douane 0.0! 0% 0.0| 0% 00| 0% Droits d'accises 60.0! 34% 00! 0% 50! 8% Prix ex-douane) 112.09! 76% 45.7| 75%| | 454| 75% . ‘ Marge des compagnies 29.1| 20% 12.2] 20% 12.1| 20% Marge des distributeurs 70] 5% 30] 5% 301 5% Prix la Pompe 149.0 100% 60.91100% 60.6,100% Total marges 36.1] 24% 15.2] 25% 15.11 25% Prix de l’energie utile Avril 1990 Avril 1990 Avril 1990 Prix F.0.B. 10.8] 39% 72| 56% 5.11 48% Transport 04! 1% 2.1| 16% 1.8} 17% Droit consulaire 03| 1% 02! 2% 02! 1% Prix C.LF. 11.5] 42% 9.6| 74% 7.1| 66% Droits de wharfage 02| 1% 0.1| 1% 0.1| 1% Droits de douane] 0.0! 0% 0.0! 0% 0.0! 0% Droits d'accises 9.3| 34% 0.0! 0% 09! 8% Prix ex-douane 20.9! 76% 9.7| 75% 8.0| 75% Marge des compagnies 5.4| 20% 2.6| 20% 2.1| 20% Marge des distributeurs 13] 5% 0.6| 5% 0.5| 5% Prix la Pompe 27.6|100% 13.0|100% 10.7|100% Total marges 6.7| 24% 3.2| 25% 2.7| 25% [page 118] -103 - Annexe V Page 4 de 4 Structure Regionale des Prix du Charbon de Bois En Gourdes par sac por .1-Nombre:. Pricau.T"Cout de: !Marges des |" - Prix :”Répion …. | Enquetes | producteur/ | Transport |-intermed./ |. d'achat ge une fe Coecteur. À: "| autres |: grossiste. ord-Oues 19 13.6 10.3 6.4 30.3 Sud-Ouest 22 15.2 70 6.1 28.3 Ouest 26 16.9 7.3 5.6 29.8 Arbonite/Centre 7 14.7 5.4 49 25.4 Sud 8 10.0 6.1 © 89 25.0 Nord/Nord-Est 6 10.7 5.4 8.9 25.0 Sud-Est 2 16.5 45 5.0 26.0 Rep. Dominicaine 8 10.8 8.8 2.0 25.0 {e 1OS: (a) Le cout de transport inclut le cout de chargement, dechargement et la taxe (b) Enquete realisee pendant la saison seche {c) Cout transport par bateau: 4.5-5.5 Gourdes par sac (d) Cout transport par vehicule: 7-10 Gourdes par sac Source: Enquete ESMAP/BME/OLADE/PNUD de 90 transporteurs, Avril 41990. [page 119] - 104 - Annexe VI Page 1 de 7 COUTS FINANCIERS ET ECONOMIQUES DE CUISSON COUTS FINANCIERS COMPARES DE CUISSON, PORT-AU-PRINCE, 1990 A. CUISINE AU CHARBON DE BOIS tradition amelore) : tradition, _ amellore [_______ Unit d'achat | ::" Sac" Sac Sac Sac Combustible | Prix de detail $ 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Poids kg 38.0 88.0 88.0 38.0 ; Prix de detaill * $/kg 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 Valeur calorifique| MJ/kg 29.0 29.0 290! : 29.0 Cout energie finale| $/GJ 73 7.3 73 7.3 F2 Coutenergie ui SG Get 266) 36 © 268) | Equipement ° ° Prix d'achat $ 2 4 16 20 oo Duree de vie an 1 L 1 1 Amortissement| $/an 2.1 4.3 17.1 21.4 - Energie finale] MJ/an 4500 4500 4500 4500 Cout equipement $/GJ 0.5 1.0 3.8 48 Total ‘ Li Cobtt6 de cuisson. SOU #50) 2768, 4 sie NOTES : ‘ Titre en grise, cas existant, sinon alternatives possibles. Prix en $ haitien (a 5 Gourdes) [page 120] ‘ +105 - Annexe VI . Page 2 de 7 COUTS FINANCIERS COMPARES DE CUISSON, PORT-AU-PRINCE, 1990 B. CUISINE AU KEROSENE | CE TERESS .méches| meches| pression pression [________ Unit d'achat |.” Gallon! "Bouteille, Gallon] Bouteille Combustible | Prix dé ctail $ 1.5 0.4 15 0.4 Poids kg 8.1 0.6 3.1 0.6 Prix de detail $/kg 0.48 0.65 0.48 0.65 Valeur calorifique MJ/kg 43.5 43.5 43.5 43.5 Cout energie finale $/GJ 11.0 15.0 11.0 15.0 A CT Te 2 Equipement Prix d'achat $ 31 81 50 50 . Duree de vie an 5 5 5 5 ” Amortissement $/an 15.11 . 15.1 . 146 14.6 : Energie finale MJ/an| . 4500 4500 4500 4500 Cout equipement $/GJ| KK] 8.3 8.3 3.3 Total IS PT SE I “rCoutiotal de cuisson #QJI 949 "4611278 ds) NOTES : Titre en grise, cas existant, sinon alternatives possibles. Prix en $ haïtien (a 5 Gourdes) . | Achat en "moyen detail : bouteille a rhum de 2 gourdes Prix d'achat minimum d'un foyer 2 feux L'amortissement des rechauds a kerosene comprend 20 % pour la maintenance et les pieces detachees On compte en plus 6 $ par an de meches pour les rechauds a meches [page 121] + 106- Annexe VI Page 3 de 7 COUTS FINANCIERS COMPARES DE CUISSON, PORT-AU-PRINCE, 1990 C. CUISINE AU GAZ Bip Bip [Prix _____] __ Actuels| Revises] Actuels| Rviss| Combustible Prix de detail $ 9.0 9.0 83.0 8.0 Poids kg 12.50 12.50 2.75 2.75 Prix de dtail $/kg 0.72 0.30 1.09! 0.30 Valeur calorifique MJ/kg 45.7 45.7 45.7 45.7 Cout energie finale $/GJ 15.8 6.5 23.9 6.5 d Goutenérgie lie SOU" 268)" 408): "4775" 5180 Equipement .. Prix d'achat $ 120 120 37! 37 Duree de vie an 10 10 5 5 Amortissement $/an] ‘ 20.5 .. 205 10.8 10.8 | | * Energie finale MJ/an 4500 4500 4500 4500 ‘ Coutequipement $/GJ 4.6 4.6 2.4 2.4 Total k Éi CourtbIAI de cuisson: SG). "#08h 1683 "2011" "152 NOTES : ‘ Titre en grise, cas existant, sinon alternatives possibles. Prix en $ haitien (a 5 Gourdes) On compte 60 $ pour l'achat de la bonbonne. Le prix du rechaud a propane (2 feux a 60 $) est un des moins cher rencontres en Haiti. L'amortissement des rechauds a gaz comprend 20 % pour la maintenance et les pieces detachees [page 122] - 107. Annexe VI Page 4 de 7 ‘ Eliaure A6,1: Coûts de Cuisine selon Les Foyers et Conbustibles . Port-au-Prince, 1990 COUTS DE CUISINE SELON LES FOYERS ET COMBUSTIBLES . | PORT—AU—PRINCE, 1990 + $ Baitien/GJ utile | Bip Achat du kerosene x : — au petit detail 60 { Meches Et] Pressi Cuisiniere : « $0. ME | ps Mecbes propane Prix du gaz revises ° NL Wen |\l— ér] Bip propane 10 LE la) [= | 272 o LL 27 OR PR PR PI LL : Potaje Rond Potaje ame). Rond amel . ° BR Charbon de bois M Kerosene CT ce ° [page 123] + 108- Annexe VI Page 5 de 7 COUT ECONOMIQUE ACTUEL DES COMBUSTIBLES Charbon] | [_Financier] Econom. sac {sac - Bois 0.7 0.5 Fabrication, commerce] 7.1 5.0 Taxe 0.2 0.0 Cout 8.0 5.6 . Butane [ Financierf_Econom.| Financier] Econom| Financier] Econom. {@allon|___/@allon,___/Gallon) __/Gallon,___ /Gallon, __ /Gallon Prix CLP. 6819! . 61.9 63.8 63.8 59.6 659.6 Droits de wharfage 0.9 0.6| : 07 0.5 0.6 0.4 - Taxes 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 Marge des compagnies 29.1 26.2 105.1 94.6 78.8 70.9 Margo des distributeurs] 70! 49 540| 378 60] 42 Cout 149.0F: : "087 223.6|:::;:106.7 150.01" "135.1 © ___ Cout petit detail ____ 201.87 :: 180.6 NOTES : Couts financiers exprimes en $ et cents haitiens (1 pour 5 gourdes) Couts economiques : Revenus locaux (bois, fabrication et commerce du charbon, marges detail sur les produits petrollers) : deflateur 0,7 Marges des compagnies petrolieres : deflateur 0,9 [page 124] + 109- Annexe VI Page 6 de 7 COUT ECONOMIQUE THEORIQUE DES COMBUSTIBLES . [_Financier|__Econom. sac sac Bois 2.2 15 Fabrication, commerce 7.1 5.0 ‘ __Propane | [Financier] Econom.|_ Financier] Econom| Financier] Econom. /@allon|___/Gatlon!___/Gallon,___/Gallon, __/Gallon)___ /Gallon Prix Ci.F. 61.9 61.9 45.0 45.0 29.9 39.9 Droits de wharfagel 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 Taxes . 60.0, 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 Marge des compagnies! 29.1 26.2 12.2 11.0 12.1 10.9 Marge des distributeurs 70 49 8.0| 2.1 3.0[ 2.1 Cout 149.0 :;":98:7: 60.9/:":788.6 60.6 |: 58.8 Cout petit detall 201.8: "190.6 - ‘ NOTES : ‘ Memes hypotheses que pour le cout economique actuel Cout economique du bois fonde sur l'estimation F.A.O. de 7.7 US$/tonne pour une plantation energetique . Transport et marges revisees sur lo gaz [page 125] + 110- Annexe VI Page 7 de 7 Fiaure.A6,2: Coût Economique Actuel Selon Les Foyers et Conbustibles Port-au-Prince, 1990 | US $/GJ utile -| Achat du kerosene 4 au petit detail « LE Core Achat du kerosene ET “ii & la pompe : Potaje Rond P. amR. am . BE Charbon de bois ANY Kerosene Ê=_] Gas ; Figure A6,3: Coût Economique Théorique Selon Les Foyers : et Conbustibles Port-au-Prince, 1990 US $/GI utile 10 NN KK NN AN 0 287 DEP a 7 7 7 Potaje Rond P. am R. em ESS Charbon de bois MANS Kerosene [1 Gas [page 126] - lil - ânnex VII ‘ Page 10f5 HOUSEHOLD SURVEY FACTOR ANALYSIS - MAIN AXES The factor analysis allows to identify the main factors that explain the behavior of surveyed households. These factors can be materialized through the main axes along the area of points that correspond to these households on the graph. These factors could be explained by decreasing order of importance: - Axis 1: Main factor of household behavious; this factor is linked to household income, mainly through household expenditure capability. - Axis 2: This factor is related to investment capacity and assets of households. - Axis 3: This factor opposes tradition (large families, tradional housing) to modernisation. . Axis 4 This factor is related to household size mainly. - Axis 5: This factor opposes the household retirement on the family nucleus and the opening towards external urban life. - Axis 6, 7 and 8 These factors have little significance. It is only worth mentioning that they are related to the use of specific fuels: Charcoal (axis 6); gas (axis 7); Kerosene (axis 8). [page 127] - 112- Annexe VII . Page 2 de 5 è 4 AE RE DEN NE RS DS DE RU RE D SR EE RE RE esse comes RE ER AS RE NE A NE NE DE NE DE CV mo ho La D D + LL ge Lie use PESTE APE deco MAUR: DES ." FE 5 2 1 PS D D A D 2 A 2 2-0 DS M RS ME CL Li Me ’ D EE D D D 26 9222 2 ON NS DE DL La NS NE ET D 2 BERREEEEITS nn nn os ER RET TT ET ut ES NN D D NE RS A DL RE CT ÉD D D D A D D D D D D sm D D D SD D D D ELITE ° -1-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.8-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1 O 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 41 3 AE D D D ERIC EE men À se a a 2 2 2 À SO D me ÉE e E À D D EE a os D PE D : EE D D D D D D D PT EE 1 EP 2 ‘0 D OT ET 4 0.4 Li I EE LR EE LE LE D. pompe [LL LL. ES 0 IT CE PT ES À D DE A PR AE ED EE À D 2 LL + 2 a 8 D BEIGE À ms ou os à 2 D D =1 DNS DRE DURE ANS MARNE DUO ARS MMS DORONS DORE DENON ANNE DONNE DONNE MR HR DRRRN MORE DERNE RENE 1 -0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1 O0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 [page 128] - 113- Annexe VII Page 3 de 5 4 4 EL LL 2 04 Lil ff tel _ SERRE ER EE ER SERREREÉÉAEERREREE RER EE ns PEER EEE BR RÈrE 07 D A D ES DS ES SG JON DRE DER D -08 be Lo pd BÉRREREREEREEEREEE -L10806 0706 0504030201 0 0.1 02 0.3 0.4 0.5 06 0.7 0.8 0,9 1 . S 1 DORE NE DE ARR RE RE DS RE D RE RE RE NE RE UE AE EEE SAS AS RS D NE D D DE EL = LA © LIN Et A a mm a DRE SRE SRE MR RU MORE DNS MR ARE MORE DU Lilas bas le vid Lei D A a ED RE PP LL 2 PE D PP © LL NE M V0 À | EE DS D D = © 2 2 PS RE NE DE DRE Mt se 04 ELLE TT GEL LOT TT LT LL LL ll cos LL OL EE EL EE LE LT] 06 ELLE EL CEE CT TE EE TE 70108 0.6-0.7-06-0.5-0.4-0.3-02-0.1 9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 05 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 [page 129] - 114 - Annexe VII Page 4 de 5 6 1 ANNE ARR BRON NUE NN JAUNE DRE RON RIDE OURS DONNE RUN NN VUE DIRE DRE VEN RUE RES gs D A DS DS D DS SE À NE DRE AR AE RS RS NS AS DE UN EN RS DE DE D NS PERTE DE RE D RE RE SD AE NE D D DO DE DE A RE A D D NN AN NE RE RS D DE RE 2 © 2 ON D NS NE SE D D D D D A 2 a x EE D D à 7 2 A RER A x 01 RER ut NE SE D NE De LR A A 20: 1 PP D io RE SECRET D D D PS RP D SP ED 2 DNS NE D NN RS D 2 LL A LA A RE NE NS D EN RE NS SD D D SD PE D 2 DS DS Ds D D © LL 2 OA 22 LL NN NS DE NN NS 2$ D A A SD D SD Le A D D TD LP D DS À ER DE DE DE AS DS NS DS DS D DR NN NE RE NE D RE -1-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.4 0.1 O0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 71 7 AL RE D DR PS DR NS RE NE EN DL D DE 2 D RS A NS D TU OU POS NS RE RS DE NE NE D D EE 2 NS NE D AN NS D AL MN les ME DE RE RE DNS SR RE DE A DS DRE A D RE DRE D NE DS DE 2 NE D DS DE EEE EEEREEEEEE DS EEE D NN AS DS RE RE DS D NE D TE NE NE D PE UE NE D CS D ES A D D DL LOI LE DE SE D PRE DS DORE D D D DR US M D D D ds D sn DR me qu ma mn mn a CL AE RL RO +2 2 2 CES NE NE SD D AE ER D C2 1 ÉD À NE DRE RE RE DS = PS PP PO DE POV DE NE RE DE NS RE HS 268 EEE RÉCIT RER RÉ 08 CEE -1-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4 0.3-0.2-0,1 D 0.1 0.2 0,3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1 [page 130] | -115° £anexe VI Page 5 de S 8 où ARE AE ARR DRE DE NE RE DE NE DRE DS DORE RE EN NE NE AE NE 0,7 CL ae pes 06 CTI LICOMES T'OTRENOS ne PTT LT LE 05 CT RE El ü.4 AN JUNE JAUNE NN DONS HU HS AE NUE DU JOUE ME ONE NN M RES HORS MORE LORD FEAR 2 EN DE NE RE RE DRE ARR AR CE LE 02 DR ET TUE EL... Te [Porogg 1 ff. -04 HSE ANUS ARUN DRRNN DRE JOUE AU DONNE DORE DORE ONE NN LRU LORS DUREE ARNO NUE HN DURE DR -0:5 ARE ARE MORIN RON DURS ANUS NE DRE DANS MERE DONNE HN JON DONS AN ARR NE RE IR HR _0:6 US ES ms 07 ARR ANNE DRE DD DURE NE NN ANNUEL DONNE DORE DRE HN DRE en -08 ARR ARE MORE UN DONNE ARDENNE DRE JE ME HN DRE NS DNS NN DONNE NE DRE HE -09 ARE DRE DR DNS NS NUS MONO DRRN DRN DURON MRUDNE DORE LORD INR JE MON DURE DR HNUNL DRE =1 CLIC LE EL 1] -1-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0,4-0.3-0.2-0.1 O 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 [page 131] - 116 - ânnex VILE Page 1 of 7 . . MARKET STUDY 1. Several consumer target groups were fdentified using household surveys, interviews with groups and product demonstrations. Each group has a separate socio-economic profile and reflects distinct attitudes. Five segments or target groups were distinguished în this manner, as described below. 2. An analysis of the different groups' attitudes towards fuels and stoves, and comparisons of these attitudes with their behavioral characteristics made it possible to evaluate the market potential of different portable . cookstoves within the respective market segments. 3. This analysis first was conducted assuming the current relative price structure for fuels, then in a second case assuming a substantial drop in the price of gas. 4. This group consists primarily of rich households and the most well- off households of the middle class. They also are counted among the most ‘ educated households and those most responsive to information and commercial advertising. . Of the total households in the capital, their relative weight can be estimated at about 10%. They have a higher than average ownership rate for cooking equipment, even though the utilization rate for these appliances 1s often limited. Organization of their households is quite flexible and 1s arranged aro*nd the constraints of the primary female in the house, who frequently is an active woman with employment outside the household. GROUP A : Group Current : Potential Zxefexence Market Market Traditional Cookstove 0% 18% 0% Improve Cookstove 0$ 0$ 0$ Potaje Cookstove 40% 208 248 Kerosene Cookstove &s 0% 58 Propane Stove ‘ 50% 40% 508 Butane Cookstove 5% 19% 208 - Electric Cookstove 18 0$ 1s 5. There are two main inçentives influencing this group's purchases: (4) the appliance £s an fndispensable element of their social status: and (1i) it must contribute to simpiification of household organization, in particular the, primary female’s duties. Neither the cost nor even the appliance’s usefulness are determining factors for this group, although in the continuing economic crisis, these factors are more present în the minds of consumers. This 4s a group resolutely oriented towards gas (kerosene has only an ambiguous image within this group): 40% of these households are equipped to use propane. In addition, under the influence of the recent publicity campaigns, many have been quick to purchase the equipment needed to use butane gas (Bip) [page 132] - 117 - ânnex VIII Page 2 of 7 6. Because of the income level of this group, a drop in gas prices should have only a limited impact. Above all, it should induce a switch from butane to propane; among propane users, a price drop would provide incentives for keeping larger household stocks (50 and 100 kg). 7. In this group, the determin{ing factor for purchases Îs household s1ze as well as the family's dietary practices (number of place settings, eating out or meals at home). Their steady income gives them a certain level of confidence with regard to investments, but in general their behavior lacks originality and they are not innovators. Their living standards are average, and they represent 30% of the population. GROUP B Group Current Potential Pxeference Market Market Traditional Cookstove 208 58% 208 Improved Cookstove 208 3% 15% . Potaje Cookstove ‘ 25% 26% 258 Kerosene Cookstove 158 0$ 15% Propane Stove 108 9s 10% Butane Cookstove 15$ 3% 15% Electric Cookstove 08 1s 0% 8. With regard to stoves and fuels, the decision criteria for this group are linked more to constraînts surrounding cooking arrangements than to the cost of cooking. The notion of cost savings Îs important (although fuel expenditures fall far below those for food) but no alternative appears more economic to them than another: this currently 1s the group least likely to change fuels. Gas £s considered only a secondary fuel and these households were a little more influenced by the presentations of the improved charcoal stove and the kerosene stove. . 9. Nonetheless, a substantial drop in gas prices could strike a sensitive chord within this group and provide the incentive for an important consumer movement towards propane and butane. Given the characteristics of these | consumers (they have to be solicited, they themselves don't seek opportunities) a massive movement to gas would only be possible under scenarios {including specifically adapted programs of credit for appliance purchases and widespread distribution of gas. - Group C: Average-Sized, Educated Households 10. These generally are average-sized households with limited income (betweon $200 and $400 per month), rather young and employed in lower-level salaried or wage-earning jobs. Their behavior is influenced substantially by their budgetary constraints (high costs of necessities) as well as by their desire to acquire appliances (motivated by ostentation or by desire for better living standards). They generally have well established decision criteria and are ready to make sacrifices to afford the equipment of their choice. These households represent about 20% of the population. [page 133] 1 - Annes VILL Page 3 of 7 GROUP C Group Current Potential Exeference Market Market Traditional Cookstove 108 608 108 Improved Cookstove 208 0e 208 Potaje Cookstove 208 23% 208 Kerosene Cookstove 108 5% 108 Propane Stove 5e 108 5% Butane Cookstove 30% 2% 30% Electric Cookstove 5% 0% 5% 11. By nature innovative în character, the members of this group are more likely to be interested by improved stoves and substitution, and in particular by products which are new to them, whether 1t be kerosene or butane. This interest 1s tempered by the fact that cooking 1s not the principal motivating factor behind their desire for change. Both for reasons of image and practicality, Bip is the stove best adapted to the aspirations of this group. . Nevertheless, îts future behavior is very likely to be shaped by publicity and information campaigns. 12. Because of their tight budgetary constraints, the consumers in this group are very sensitive to variations in price. A drop in the price of gas would provide the incentive for a large fraction of the consumers în this group to switch to that fuel, to the detriment of kerosene and of improved stoves. 13. For the most part, these are average-sized households living at the subsistence level: they represent 358 of the population in the capital. Their income 1s very limited (between $70 and $150 per month) and their budgetary constraînts are substantial, even though they sometimes receive assistance from . emigrant relatives. More s0 than with other groups, they are affected by the choîce of fuel: as 1t is an essential element of their day-to-day survival, proportionally fuel expenditures can play as large a role in their daily budget as food expenditures. They are not influenced very much by publicity and thus vere not affected by recent promotion campaigns for gas. Their decision criteria are very different from those of the rest of the population, and their purchasing decisions often are a function of random additions to the family budget. GROUP D Group Current Potential Axeference Market Market Traditional Cookstove 55% 75% 55% Inproved Cookstove 25% 4% 25% Potaje Cookstove 0 154 US Kerosene Cookstove 5% 2% £s : Propane Stove 08 0% 0$ : Butans Cookstove 108 0% 103 Electric Cookstove 5s CU 5% [page 134] - 119 - Annex VLLL . Page 4 of 7 14. Based on their own perception of their economic situation, the households în this group reject gas as being economically out of reach. They also have difficulty perceiving that kerosene use could be advantageous when faced with the multiple possibilities offered by charcoal. Thus a large majority -- based on their present economic constraînts and fuel use patterns -- can only see charcoal as a future fuel alternative. As a result, they mostly are interested in improved cookstove models. Thus it 1s among this group that improved stoves have their best market opening, although enthusiasn for the model has been dampened somewhat by the published price for the BME model. 15. If gas prices were to fall substantially, a campaign to educate consumers about comparing the costs of fuels could draw a limited share of these low-income consumers (10 to 20%) to gas use. This assumes also that it will be possible to fntroduce gas fnto the retail networks for ne{ghborhoods where these households are located, Group E: Modern, Progressive Households 16. This 1s a rather narrowly defined group of households (58% of the population în the capital), very open to new ideas, Rather politicized and în general progressive, these households are sensitive to arguments such as the struggle against deforestation; they are influenced by western consumption modes and with steady, large incomes, they are able to make purchases în accordance with their views. However, they also are quite conscious of the family budget and are not insensitive to practical arguments. GROUP E Group Current . Potential Exeference Market Market Traditional Cookstove 06 508 08 Inmproved Cookstove 40% 08 40% Potaje Cookstove 08 38 0$ Kerosene Cookstove : 208 0$ 20% Propane Stove 108 28 10% Butane Cookstove 30% 108 30% Electric Cookstove 08 06 0% 17. The households of this group have very precise expectations vis-a- vis different fuels and stoves. In the present situation, the stove which corresponds best to their expectations 1s the Bip butane cooker, but those who will continue to cook with charcoal will purchase improved stoves. In general, they are more interested by kerosene cookers than other groups, especially the new models presented at demonstrations, primarily because of their modern appearance and advertized high efficiency. 18. Vigllant & . :arket conditions, cney cannot help but be {nfluenced by decreases in gas pri .. A large number are likely to “jump ship° in favor of this fuel, 1£f only they are offered advantageous terms for purchasing equipment (credit, especially) and bottles (cross-subsidize the initial purchase with the fuel price). [page 135] - 120. Annexe VIII Page 5 de ? RESULTATS DE L'ETUDE DE MARCHE SUR PORT-AU-PRINCE A. SITUATION ACTUELLE : Participation 10% 30% 35% 100% Part de marche|__ Val_ Tot| Val Tot| Val Tot! Val Tot| Val Tot| Tot Rechauds a charbon Rechaud traditionnel| 18%| 2%] 58%] 17%] 60%| 12%| 75%] 26%| 50%| 3%] 60% Rechaud amehorel 0%| 0%! 3%| 1%| 0%! 0%| 4%| 1%! 0%| 0%| 2% Rechaud potaje| 20%| 2%| 26%] 8%] 23%| 5%| 15%] 5%] 38%| 2%] 22% SiTotall 38%| 4%| 87%| 26%| 83%| 17%| 94%| 33%! 88%| 4%] 84% Rechaud a kerosene 3%| 0%| 0%] 0%) 5%] 1%| 2%| 1%] 0%] 0%| 2% Rechauds a gaz : | Cuisiniere a propane! 40%] 4%| 9%| 3%| 10%| 2%| 0%| 0%| 2%| 0%| 9% ‘ Rechaud butane| 19%! 2%1 3%| 1%| 2%| 0%| 0%]! 0%| 10%| 1%| 4% S/Total| 59%| 6%] 12%) 4%| 12%| 2%} 0%| 0%! 12%] 1%] 13%] : Rechaud electrique 0%| 0%| 1%! 0%| 0%| 0%! 4%! 1%| 0%! 0%! 2% TOTAL 100%] 10%/100%| 30%]/100%] 20%X|100%| 35%]100%| 5%|100% B. MARCHE POTENTIEL, STRUCTURES DE PRIX INCHANGEES : Participation 10% 30% 100% Part de marche Rechauds a charbon Rechaud traditionnel! 0%| 0%| 20%] 6%] 10%| 2%] 55%| 19%| 0%| 0%] 27% Rechaud ameliore| 0%| 0%! 15%| 5%| 20%| 4%| 25%) 9%| 40%| 2%] 19% Rechaud potaje) 24%| 2%] 25%| 8%] 20%| 4%] 0%! 0%| 0%] 0%]| 14% S/Totail 24%| 2%] 60%! 18%| 50%| 10%| 80%| 28%] 40%! 2%] 60% Rechaud a kerosene 5%| 1%| 15%] 5%| 10%] 2%| 5%| 2%] 20%] 1%] 10% Rechauds a gez Cuisiniere a propane] 50%| 5%} 10%] 3%! 5%| 1%} 0%| 0%] 10%| 1%] 10% Rechaud butane| 20%| 2%| 15%| 5%| 30%! 6%| 10%| 3%| 30%] 2%| 18% S/Total 70%| 7%] 25%| 8%| 35%| 7%]| 10%] 3%] 40%] 2%| 27% Rechaud electrique 1%| 0%! 0%| 0%| 5%| 1%| 5%| 2%| 0%| 0%| 3% TOTAL 100%] 10%/100%| 30%]100%| 20%/100%! 35%]100%! 5%1100% Groupes-ciblss : . À : Menages sans contraintes budgetaires ni rigidites alimentaires B : Menages de plus de 6 personnes, a revenu variable mais regulier C : Menages de taille moyenne, avec influence du niveau d'instruction {secteur secondaire, professions liberales) D : Menäges a faible revenu ou a revenu irregulier E:: Menages modernes, progressistes [page 136] | -121- Annexe VIII . Page6 de 7 C. MARCHE POTENTIEL, BAISSE SENSIBLE DU PRIX DU GAZ Participation! 10% 80% 20% 35% 5% |100% Part de marche] Val] Tot!_ Val] Tot| Val Tot| Val Tot| Val Tot|_Tot Rechauds a charbon Rechaud traditionnel) 0%]! 0%! 10%! 3%| 5%| 1%| 45%] 16%] 0%| 0%| 20% Rechaud ameliore 0%| 0%}! 15%! 5%] 20%| 4%] 25%| 9%|20%| 1%] 18% Rechaud potaje| 25%| 3%] 15%] 5%] 12%| 2%| 0%| 0%| 0%]! 0%| 9% S/Totall 25%| 3%1\ 40%) 12% | 37%| 7%| 70%| 25% | 20% | 1%| 47% Rechaud a kerosene 0%| 0%| 10%| 3%| 5%! 1%| 5%| 2%| 10%| 1%] 6% Rechauds a gaz : Cuisiniere a propane] 60%| 6%] 20%| 6%! 15%] 3%] 0%] 0%] 20%) 1%] 16% Rechaud butane| 14%X| 1%] 30%| 9%] 40%] 8%]! 20%| 7%] 50%| 3%] 28% S/Totall 74%| 7%| 50%! 15%| 55%| 11%] 20%| 7%] 70%! 4%| 44% ‘ Rechaud electrique 1%| 0%! 0%! 0%! 3%| 1%| 5%! 2%|.0%| 0%! 2% TOTAL . 100% | 10% 100% | 30% |100% | 20% |100%| 35%|100%| 5%1100% D. ANALYSE DE SENSIBILITÉ Participation 10% 30% 20% 35% 100% Part de marche|__ Val] Sens! _ Vall Sens|_ Val] Sens! _ Val] Sens] Vall Sens[_ Tot| Sens! Rechaud traditionnel 0%] 0%]! 10%] 0%] 5%] 2%] 45%! 3%} 0%] 0%] 20% 115% Rechaud ameliore| 0%] 0%]| 15%] 3%] 20%] 0%] 25%} 0%] 20%] 0%) 18%] 0.8% Rechaud potajel 25%| 4%] 15%] 0%]! 12%| 1%| 0%! 0%| 0%! 0%| 9%]0.6% Rechaud a kerosene] 0%! 0%! 10%| 3%| 5%| 1%! 5%| 0%| 10%| O%| 6%]1.0% Cuisiniere a propane] 60%| 3%] 20%| 4%] 15%| 5%| 0%] 0%! 20%| 2%| 16% 26% Rechaud butane|) 14% | 5%| 30%| 6%] 40%| 2%]| 20%| 2%| 50%! 4%] 28% |36% Rechaud electrique] _1%] 0%] 0%]! 0%] 3%] 0%] 5%| 0%] 0%| 0%] 2%]0.0% CRITERES DE SENSIBILITE . Groupe À : Concurrence vente au detail, prix d'achat des bombonnes . Groupe B : Credit a l'equipement, couverture du reseau de distribution Groupe C : Prix de l'equipement, inflation continue ou stagnante Groupe D : Strategle de communication, couverture du reseau de distribution . Groupe E : Credit a l'equipement, prix d'achat des bombonnes [page 137] - 12 - ânnex_ VII Page 7 de 7 Élaure A8.1: Narché des Combustibles et des Foyers 120% Prix du gaz sensiblament baisse A A A A eo ES ES EE de) ee ox L IRRE << DS on ds es 1990 Prix inchangEs Moyenne Minimum Maximum Ri e Marche de Port-au-Prince sante Domingo EM Crarpon traditionnel Si Charbon amellore Kerosene 3 Go OT £tectricite | [page 138] - 13 - danexe IX Page 1 de 3 SCENARIO TENDANCIEL . SCENARIO VOLONTARISTE PROJECTION DE CONSOMMATION DE COMBUSTIBLES Port: ce) 966] 996] 1097] 1080! 1123 1220] 1270| 1329] 13977] 1434 prinoip] 204! 210| 213] 220] 235 284] 265! 274] 284] 298 otall 1186| 1206] 1285 [ 1307! 1300 1473| 1634] 1596 | 1862| 1729 SCENARIO TENDANCIEL (structures de consommations inchengeecs) P consommateurs de charbon de bois comme combustible prineipal Port-au-Prince 04% 04% 04% B4X 64% B4X 84% BAX 84% 84% SAN BA 04% Vies princip. 90% 920% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 20% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% pa nation unitaire moyenne de charbon (kg/an/oapita) Totel 218 215 218 215 215 218 215 215 215 218 2185 215 916 (Con mation domestique de charbon de bois (1000 t} Port-au-Prince 173 180 187 195 208 212 220 229 239 249 259 270 281 . Villes princip. 39 41 42 44 48 47 40 S1 53 S5 57 5 e@ Total 212 221 230 239 249 259 269 280 292 304 318 329 942 des consommateure de gaz comme combustible principal . Portau-Prince 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 193% 13% 13% 13% 13% Villee princip, 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% nheommation unitaire moyenne de gaz (kg/en/capita) Totai 48 49 48 49 49 489 48 48 48 49 485 4 4 Consommation domestique de gaz (10001 Portau-Princo 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 [] (2 9 1 Villes princlp. L] 0 0 0 (] 9 0 1 1 1 t 1 1 _ Totat__6 z ? LA 7 8 8 8 9 9.10 _10 10 SCENARIO VOLONTARISTE Mu du mer di: 1009 1980 1891:1992 19991004" 1985 19907 1997 1998; 1009; 2000: 2001] ; consommateurs de charbon de bois comme combustible prinei, Portau-Prince 84% 84% 84% 92% 79% 76% 72% 68% 64% 60% 55% S0X 45% Villes princip. 00% 90% 60% 69% 86% 96% 64% 83% B1X 75% 77% 75% 75% Totai 215 215 215 219 210 204 204 204 204 204 204 204 203 Consommation domestique de charbon. de bois (1000 1 : | Porteu-Prince ‘173 1860 187 189 197 182 180 177 173 169 191 152 142 Vies prinoip. 39 41 42 49 43 43 44 45 45 48 48 47 4 Total 212 221 230 231 230 228 229 221 218 218 207 199 189 Total sans Foyers Amellores 212 221 230 234 237 240 239 238 238 259 229 219 212 D ,. Part des consommateurs de gaz comme combustible principal Port-au-Prince 13% 13% 13% 16% 18% 24% 29% 35% 40% 49% 80% S0%X 50% Villes prir ip. 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 8% 10% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21% € à «© 4 à à « « « « . Partau-Prnee 8 @ 6 S 10 19 47 21 25 0 % se 9 Vällee prinolp. O0 O0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 93 3 Total __ 6 _7 8 __10. 14 _19 23 27. 321 3 4 [page 139] oo - 124- Annexe IX | Page 2 de 3 PENETRATION DES FOYERS AMELIORES PORT-AL-PRINC! Menages (1000) #menages 159 166 173 180 187 195 203 212 220 230 239 249 259 % menages avec FA rond 0% 0% 1% 8% 10% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% # menages avec F.A rond 0 0 2 9 19 39 41 42 44 46 48 50 52 ventes F.A. rond (1000) 0 0 2 7 11 28 13 29 15 31 17 33 19 eco. de charbon (1000 0 0 0 2 4 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 % menages avecF.A pote 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% “7% 6%] . # menages avec F.A. potaje 0 0 0 2 6 10 140 1? 119 11 12 12 13 ventes F.A. potale Bey 0 0 0 2 4 6 4 6 6 7 E 7 6 eco. de charbon (1000 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 è 2 2 3 Manje twi (1000) # depostes 19 20 21 22 23 24 24 26 27 28 29 30 31 % postes avec FA, 1% 1% 1% 5% 10% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% : #postesavecF.A 0 0 0 1 2 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 ventes F.A. 0. 0 0 1 1 4 1 5 2 5 2 6 2 eco. de charbon (1000 t) 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 8 3 8 E] 3 Eco. tot. charbon PAP (10001) 0 0 0 E] 6 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 RES VILLES PRINCIPALES Menages (1000) #menages 34 35 36 38 39 41 42 44 46 47 49 51 53 % monages avec FA. rond 0% 0% 0% 5% 10% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% # menages avec F.A. rond 0 0 0 2 4 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 ventes F.A. rond (1000) 0 0 0 2 2 6 2 6 Ki 7 8 7 83 eco, de charbon (1000 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 % menages avec FA potaje 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% # menages avec F.A poiaje O0 0 0 0 1 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 ventes F.A. potaje (008 0 0 ( 0 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 2 eco..de charbon (1000 0 0 0 0 0 1 L 1 1 L 1 1 1 Manje kwi (1000) # de postes 4 4 4 S 8 6 7 9 12 16 23 3% 51 % postes avec FA 0% 0% 0% 2% 5% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% # postes aecFA 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 S 8 ventesFA 0 0 0 te 0 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 eco. de charbon (1000 t) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 il 1 1 î 2 É] Eco tot CdB Aut. villes (1000t 0 0 0 0 1 3 8 3 3 4 4 5 6 Eco. tot. CdB Haïti (10001) 0 (] 9 3 7_15 _16 16 17 18 19 A1 2 [page 140] - 125- Annexe IX Page 3 de 3 PENETRATION DU GAZ . % menages avec rechaud butana 2% 4% 4% 5% 7% 12% 16% 20% 23% 27% 30% 30% 30% . # monages avec rechaud butane 3 7 7 9 13 23 393 42 51 62 72 75 78 ‘ ventes rechauds butane 2 3 2 4 8 13 13 17 21 24 27 24 2% % menages avec rechaud propane 9% 9% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 16% 17% 19% 20% 20% 20% # menages avec rechaud propane 14 15 16 18 21 23 28 32 37 4 48 50 52 ventes rechauds propane 3 3 3 # 6 6 6 8 11 12 10 8 10 LLES PRINCIPALES % menages avec rechaud butane 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 5% 85% 7% 9% 10% 12% 13% # menages avec rechaud butane 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 8 4 5 6 7 ventes rachauds butane 0 0 0 9 0 î 1 1 2 2 8 4 81. % Mmanages avec rechaud propane 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% # menages avec rechaud propans 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 ventes rechauds Q_0__0__0 0 __0O _O _141__O O1. O0 1 Notes: . Personnes par menage: 6 . Duree de vie des equipements Foyer amellore: 2ans Rechaud butane: 3 ans Cusiere propane: 5 ans . Equipement a amellore ou a gaz par menage: 1 . Diminution moyenne de conso. de CdB pour menages utilisateurs de F.A.: 20% . Les consommations unitaires de charbon de bois et de gaz sont des moyennes comprenant leur utilisation comme combustible principal et d'appoint ‘ : [page 141] - 126 - Annexe X ‘ Page 1 de 17 DONNEES GENERALES Jahoou A10,1: Projection de Population Urbaine at Rurale Population (miiliers) (b} Yeux croissance X 1971 1982 1990 2000 50-71 71-82 82-2000 Population Urbaîne Ca) 707 1062 1510 2650 5.0 3.6 6.9 Port-au-Prince 507 720 9% 1493 5.9 3.2 4.1 Autres villes 200 322 516 956 3.4 4.4 6.2 Cap Haîtien 46 ét L14 127 3.2 3.1 3.9 Gonaîves 2 zx 39 C4 3.5 1.5 1.9 Cayes 2 z% st 8 2.9 4.0 5.2 St-Marc 17 26 3 49 3.1 3.2 6.1 Sous-totat 16 156 210 308 3.2 2.9 3.9 | Autres 86 166 306 648 3.2 6.2 7.9 Population Rurale 3623 4011 4318 4517 1.2 0.9 0.7 TOTAL 4330 5053 5aes 6%6 1.6 1.46 1.8 Ca) Villes de plus de 5.009 habitants tb) Hatgré La baîsse du taux de croissance constatée d'après Les recensements IHS1, Le toux de croissance sur 1982-2000 8 été considéré égal à 1.8% au nîiveeu nationel( voi Le Rapport sur Le Développement dens Le Monde); Les teux de croissance suivant Le milieu (urbain, rural) ont 6té selles sur cette base et proportionnellement aux taux de crofssance indiqués par L'INSI pour £ource: 1HSI (recensements de 1971 et 1982), Banque Mondiale Ron) [page 142] - 127 - Annexe X Page 2 de 17 . Niveau de Vie Niveau de Vie (Factor) Quintiles Lau | | pee GROUPE SOC10-ECO ° Faible Revenu 77 76 60 32 S | 250 Moyen è 6 18 46 art 111 Aise 1 2 33 36 Revenu Quintiles | CGd/cep/mois) . : 71.5 33 e7 11 8} 80 71.5 - 124 2è ès et é 7% 14 - 233 Lo #1 28 20 3 78 : 223 - 567 8 16 4% 3 20 89 . S47 + 3 5 13 55 7% . Food Expenditure ‘ Quintiles ‘ (Gd/cap/mois) - 50 ‘ 3% 32 12 3 81 ‘ st- & FAI 17 20 46 1 LE] . 81 - 125 12 15 22 26 11 ê& 126 - 210 10 9 49 2 171 7% . 211 + 2 7 6 45 50 80 . ° - ALL 7 | eo! 7} a! 7! 397 Strategie Energie Domestique ‘ Enquetes urbaines Port-au-Prince [page 143] | - 128 - ânnexe X Page 3 de 17 Household Characteristics by Classification Niveau de Vie CFactor) Quintiles [TOTAL Faibte|Moyen 40-60%|60-80% Revenu Revenu du Menage L ‘ (Gd/men/mois) Mean 79%.012892.716273.0| 405.2| 609.8] 989.211851.915513.6]1888.5 Hedian 500.00/2287.515400.01338.331500.00 1750.00! 1675.0|5000.0/850.00 Valid N 251 112 37 Li 80 79 80 79 | 400 Revenu (Gd/cap/mois) Wean 175.7] 546.611113.2| 104.6] 143.9] 226.6] 360.6] 990.7] 366.2 Median 100.00/372.501868.88| 80.00! 89.29] 140.001253.571750.00| 170.92 Valid N 254} 112 37 7% 80 7 80 79 | 400 TAILLE MENAGE Mean 5.4 6.8] 6.3 4.7, 5.5 6.1 6.7! 6.6] 5.9 Median 5 6 6 5 s 6 é é 5 Valid N 251 | 112 37 7% 80 7% 89 79 | 400 PERSONNES PARTICIPANTS Mean 1.7] 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.8] 2.1 2.1 1.9 Medien 2 2 2 î 2 2 2 | 2 2e Valid N . 251} 112 37 7% 80 7 80 79 | 400 ‘ Strategie Energie Domestique Enquetes urbaînes Port-au-Prince . ‘ BME / OLADE / ESMAP - Banque Mondiale/PNUD (MILAATAB) [page 144] - 129- Annexe X Page 4 de 17 ANALYSE PAR CARACTERISTIQUES SOCIO-ECONOMIQUES Cooking Fuel Expenditures / Food Expenditures Food Expenditure Niveau de Vie (Factor) : Quintiles (Gd/cap/mois) Quintfies 60-8180%+ . 0x . Charbon Cost/Food Cost ° Mean +36] .21! .16| .11] .06] .31| .22) .15] .14] .05! .18 Valid N 81] 74) 84| 80] 81] 79] 80] 79) 80! 79] 397 | Gaz Cost/Food Cost Mean .01| .01! .02| .03| .04 .01] .01] .03] .06| .02 . Valid N 81] 76} &| 80! 81| 79] 80! 79] 80! 79] 397 Kerosene Cost/Food Cost . Mean 00! .00] .01| .00! .00 00! .00! .01| .00| .00 Vatid N 81] 76) æ]) 80! 81| 79] 80! 79! 80] 79| 397) Cooking Fuels Cost/Food ‘ | Cost : Mean 36] .22) .18] .16] .10| .31] .24] .17] .18] .11] .20 Valid N 81| 74] &| 80] 81] 79] 80] 79] 80! 79] 397 ° . Strategie Energie Domestique L Enquetes urbaînes Port-au-Prince . BME / OLADE / ESMAP - Banque Mondiale/PNUD (ROYITAB) [page 145] : - 130 - Annexe X Page 5 de 17 ANALYSE PAR CARACTERISTIQUES SOCIO-ECONOMIQUES Combustibles Par Cuisine (per capita) GROUPE Food Expanditure Niveau de Vie (Factor) SOCI0-ECQ |auintiles (Gd/cap/mois) Quintites Faib st] 81 60-8 le . . 0x Reve 80 |125 ru - Charbon (kg/cap/jour) Meen 42] .661 .32] .30] .39] .43] ,50! .49 46! .43] .48)] .35] .43 Vatid N 251] 112] 37] 81] 76] &| 80) 81 80] 79] 80] 79] 397 . Gaz Ccombus.} ° - : : Ckg/cap/ jour) | Heen .00| .07! .18] .00! .01! .02! .03| .14 .00! .01| .05! .13] .04 Valid N 251] 112} 37] 81] 76! 84! 80! a1 80] 79] 80) 79! 397 Kerosene (combus.) ‘ ‘ | {tt/cap/jour) Mean .00! .01! .01| .00] .00! .00] .01] .01 .00} .00] .01] .01| .00 Vatid N 251] 112] 37] 81] 74] 84] 80) 81 80] 79) 80! 79) 397 . - Strategie Energie Domestique ° Enquetes urbaînes Port-au-Prince 2 . BME / OLADE / ESMAP + Banque Mondiale/PNUD (ROY3TAB) [page 146] * 131- Annexe X Page 6 de 17 ANALYSE PAR CARACTERISTIQUES SOCI0-ECONOMIQUES Charbon par Cuisine Ckg/cap/jour): Users Only | lets lefs{sfrlefeluolnpelsfupislie) | GROUPE S0C10-ECO Faible Reveru _Cherbon Ckg/cap/jour) | Mean 1.36] .57] .58|] .51] .60 28] .33! .26) .24 | 43 Velid N 6! 13] 39! 35! 45 25] 21! 9| 12 246 Moyen Charbon Ckg/cep/jeur) Hean « 4511.96] .68| .65! .51 40] .37} .66] .28 20! .51 ‘ Valid N el 3] 3] 12] 17 12] 10) 5| 8 11 100 Aise Charbon (kg/cap/ jour) Mean . «1 .77] .85] .56 .27| .28} .56| .27 A . Valid N 3} 2| 4 3] 2] 2! 2 3 Charbon Cka/cap/ Jour) | Hean . 1.13} .83] .60] .56! .64 32] .34] .34] .25 20] .66 : Vetidu 8&| 16) 65] 49] 6 40] 33] 16] 22 1} 370 - Strategie Energie Domestique Enquetes urbaines Port-au-Prince BME / OLADE / ESMAP + Banque Mondiale/PNUD (ROY6TAB) . [page 147] - 132 - Annexe X Page 7 de 17 ‘ ANALYSE PAR COMBUSTIBLES Food Expenditure Quintiles (Gd/cap/moisa) [total | 81 - 125 Charbon kg/cep/ jour) Charbon Charbon Charbon Charbon Charbon Ckg/cap/ jour) |(kg/cep/ jour) |Ckg/cap/ jour )|(ka/cap/ jour) |(ka/cap/ jour) bois Cr] 1 . . . 3 charbon .38 2 .15 . .76 1 . .36 5 charbon ‘ | 0 31 é8 .38 .43 58 .59) 43] .78 49 4] 266 bois 31 $ .25 . . . .28 10 charbon . « . , .70]. 1 .70 L kerosene 28 1 . 41 3 .26 3 . «33 7 gaz 27 è .84 .43 11 .45 12 .80 LD .60| 66 electricite . .17 49 s .60 4 .53 C3 .51 46 kerosene . | | charbon . . . 4h 3 —— th 3 gez . . . . è è . gez ‘ ° . , . 5] .æœl 16) os] 21 charbon .23 2 . 47 6 .47 7 .43| 20 03 35 electricite . ‘ , . .16 4 .16 4 etectricite 0 . . 1 . . 1 charbon . . . .39 è . +9! .2 Total 30] 81 .39 .43| 8 .50] 80 .49) 81 .h2| 400 Strategie Energie Domestique Enquetes urbaînes Port-au-Prince . BME / OLADE / ESMAP - Banque Mondiale/PNUD (OUROTAB(a)) [page 148] - 133 - ännexe X Page 8 de 17 ANALYSE PAR COMBUSTIBLES _ Food Expenditure Quintiles (Gd/cap/mois) Total 1è6 - 210 Gaz (combus.}) Ckg/cap/ jour) Gaz (combus.)|Gez (combus.)|Gaz (combus.)|Gaz (combus.)|Gaz (combus. ) Ckg/cap/ Jour) |(kg/cap/ jour) |Ckg/cep/ jour) |(kg/cap/ jour) |(kg/cap/ jour) bois 0 L è . . A 3 charbon è è . 1 . 5 Charbon ” € .00 68 58 .00 se .00! 43 149 .00| 246 bois 5 $ . |. . 10 charbon . |. . ‘ 1 1 kerosene 1 . 3 .09 3 . .00 7 gaz .03 è .06 6 .04 11 .05 1 16 15 .08 46 electricite . 1 5 F4 4 16 kerosene . ‘ charbon : . . . | 3 . 06] "3 ‘ gaz ù . . . . .10 è .10 è gaz . Ô . . . 14 S .20) 16 tal 21 charbon .03 è . «13 6 15 7 .24| 20 19) 35 electricite . . . . 413 4 13 4 etectricite ] . . 1 . . 1 charbon . . . è . è Total .00| 81 .01 76 .02] & .03] 80 4 81 .06| 400 Strategie Energie Domestique . Enquetes urbaines Port-au-Prince BME / OLADE / ESMAP + Banque Mondiale/PNUD (DUROTAB(C)) [page 149] + 134- Annexe X | Page 9 de 17 ANALYSE PAR COMBUSTIBLES Conbustible Principal ALL | vois | der CERCECE second. | Secons, | T'en | second, | sacond. | orfefsisfeearoqus Faucon fs[ourqueronten . Group Socio-econonique Faible Revenu | Count ati] 10 9 1 251 Row Percent 84%x|4.0% 3.6x RS 190% Moyen Count x 30 40) 20 112 Row Percent 30% 27% 8.9%| 18% 100% Aîse Count 1 7 A1 146 37 Row Percent 2.74 19% 30%) 38% 100% Niveau de Vie (Factor) Quintiles 0-20X 65| 5 7 . 20-60% al 6 3 1 80 60-60% 63| 1 é 1, 1 7 .. J60-80x 35 20 3] 7 80 80% . . | . 17 17] 25 ° 7 At 246] 10 66 21| 3% 397 Strategie Energie Domestique : Enquetes urbaines Port-au-Prince BME / OLADE / ESMAP - Banque Mondiale/PNUD (ROY7TAB) : [page 150] | os 4 RENE F £ 7 £ r | 3. . D 0 ë Ghie £ ë 4 É [page 151] +136 - ânnexe X . Page 11 de 17 | Iable A10,1: Taux d'Equipement Energétique Suivant Quintile de Niveau de Vie en Pourcentage du Total des Ménages : - Pauvre Moyen Pauvre Moyen Moyen riche Riche Total Ampoules 59 93 . $ La 100 F2 Radto/Redio Cassettes 8 81 ss C2 100 LA Ventilateur 4% 41 76 85 LI é& Télévision 0 Lo n LA 99 é1 Fer à repasser fn 34 63 8 n 56 Réfrigérateur 0 1 e0 65 ss 36 Stéréo 0 3 4 6 s8 4 Machine à coudre 1 0 “ 10 ES] 8 Source: Enquêtes urbaines Port-au-Prince. Stratégie Energie Domestique BME/OLADE/PNUD/ESMAP. ‘ [page 152] - 137. Annexe X - Page 12 de 17 CARBONISATION OCCASIONNELLE, CARBONISATION PROFESSIONNELLE _ occasionnelie| __ professionnelle onnâge initial de bols Tonne 1 1 Rendement de la meule 14% 21% Charbon produit Tonne! 0.14 0.21 Prix de cession du charbon G/tonnel 250 250 Revenu brut du charbon Gourdes| 85.0 52.5 Nombre d'heures travaillees H/t. bois 20 20 Salaire horaire G/heure 1 1 Imput travail paysan Gourdes| 20 Imput travail charbonnier Gourdes 20 Carbonisation paysanne | Partage 40% paysan - 60 % charbonnier : : HYPOTHESES : Rendement de 21 % mesure a Terrier Rouge, avril 1990 : dans une grande zone de production charbonniers professionnelle du nord du pays fes mesures realisses par le BME sur trois meules dans la Plaine du Cul de Sac : en 1965 ont indique un rendement moyen similaire: 18%). . Rendement diminue d'un tiers pour la meule réalisée par un charbonnier occasionnel (d'apres l'experience d'ESMAP ; dans des pays ou les caracteristiques de la production charbonniere sont similaires a celles d'Haitl, le Rwanda par exemple) : ; Temps de travail d'apres Projet Forestier et mesures B.M.E. Salaire foumalier de 6 Gourdes (1,2 $) [page 153] - 138 - Annexe X Page 13 de 17 COUTS DE TRANSPORT Répartition des coûts : Camion Camion | S$/1000 km Léger Lourd - Carburant 115.4 36 84 16% 150.3 124% Lubrifiant 5.1 196 6.4 1% 8.1 19% Pneus 5.8 % 24.3 4% 76.9 6% Pièces détachées 68.8 . 19% 7 78.3 18% 231.5 19% M.0. entretien 87.8 10% 110.5 19% 147 12% Chaufteur 0% 56.7 9%] 160.6 13% Amortissement 70 19% 101 17% 210.9 179% Frais financiers 63 17% 63.6 11% 151.8 12% : Autres coûts | 0% 53.4 99% 113.7 9% . TOTAL 866.4 100% 687.2 100% 1260.8 100% Cout T.T.C. : (USS/km) Pick-up 0.33 0.37 0.45 0.44 Camion léger 0.55 0.79 0.66 0.91 Camion lourd 1.18 1.78 1.48 2.01 Source : Ministère des Transports, 1989 | [page 154] - 139- Annexe X Page 14 de 17 DONNES SUR LE REVENU AGRICOLE Cas du Nord et Nord-Est du pays ut Lone Le [ours Loan | Loup | vu. [A[B[CID] brut|b.terre b.terre | c.ap. t.C.a.p. Quartier Morin [213[ 313] 810] 400 2500 1.7 1450 1.6 St Raphael [3] 3[3]2]) 900! 1000 2200| 17 860! 1.5 Bord de Mer [2] 313]2| 615] 1100 2500 17 1460 1.8 Plaine du Nord [2]2[3[2/) 400! 380 1600 1.6 800 1.3 Camp Louise [2121212] 645] 350 23 1.5° 900 1.0 Terrier rouge [0] 3] 3]1} 150] 200 600) 1.6 220| 0. HtMaribaroux [1112/2121] sos! 200 800] 16 260| 20 Grisan Garde [| 2[1][2][2] sie| 600 160 14 240 10! Grand Bassin [0] 2[2]1] 285! 630 640] 17 840! 1.0 Dondon | 3[1[101]1] ess} #00 1000! 2.5 600 1.0 Gde Riv du Nord [1[0[0{1| gso| so 800) 15 320 | 0. [Moyenne | ________] 499] 642] [1873] 17] [ e77] 13] LEGENDE : À : Alimentation en eau US © Défavorable 8 : Qualité du sol 4 Peu favorable C: Topographie ‘ 2 Favorable D : Accessibilité commerciale 8 Très favorable Produit brut par carreau et par an, moyenne de l'échantillon . Bénéfice bonne terre (canne, banane, café, fruitiers), par carreau et par an Mode de tenure : propriétaire (1), métayer ou autre (2) | Prix des bonnes terres, par carreau ‘ Valorisation du travail agricole, en culture annuelle pluviale, par jour Mode de tenure : propriétaire (1), métayer ou autre (2) Prix des terres de culture annuelle pluviale, par carreau | Prix de la journée de travail ‘ [page 155] - 140 - Annexe X - Page 15 de 17 figure A10,1: Smportetions Pétrolières ‘ Evolution 1970-1989 | 160 Produits (1000 Barils/ an) Tota! 140 2000 420 2 : _ 1500 0 Fo 80 De : 2 41000 | 4 - Dm mm 500 D 0 ] 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 7? 78 79 60 81 82 83 84 85 66 67 66 84 — Total —*- Keroseñe —Æ G.PL. [page 156] .. + l41- ânnexe X | Page 16 de 17 Unités de vente de charbon de bois Poids moyens à Port-au-Prince Sac 38 kg Denis 1 esac 19 kg Grande marmite 0.9 kg Lot ü pure) 0.8 53 Lot (0.5 gourde) 0.35 Note: Il existe d’autres unités de vente, beaucoup moins fréquentes, comme panier, bol, cuvette, etc. Pour le calcul de la consommation de charbon par habitant, ces unités ont été comptabilisées en fonction de leur prix d’achat indiqué par le ménage (1 gourde = 0.7 kg) Source: Enquête poids/prix BME Enquêtes ménages Port-au-Prince ESMAP/BME/OLADE/PNUD. [page 157] - 142 - Annexe X | Page 17 de 17 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Diesel Oil Substitution Gulidive Case Study Real discount rate = 12% Wood consumption = . 6.5 truckloads/months Capactity of wood truck = 10 tonnes/load Cost of wood = 11000 Gourdes/truckload Cast of wood = 110 Gourdes/tonne Output of Gulidive = 150 drums/month Value of product = 775 Gourdes/drum Cost of fuel/value of product = 5% Cost of diesel olt = 8.40 Gourdes/galion Cost of diesel burner retrofit = $1200 Cost of half-time wood stoker labor = 2500 Gourdss/year Cost of diesel burner maintenance = 5% capex/year Lifetime of diesel burner retrofit = 8 Years Efficlency of wood burner = 25% Efficiancy of diesel burner = 75% Calorific value of wood = 15.0 MJ/xg Calorific value of diesel = 43.5 _MJ/k * Annuäl Economic | Annual Financial Conversion | Economic : . ‘Value a/ Factor Value Costs Capital Cost of Retrofit b/ 242 1.00) 242 Diesel Burner Maintenance b/ 60] 1.00 60] Diesel Oil 40,146) 0.55 22,040) Sub-Total 40,448 22,341 ° Benefits Wood Saved 14,520 0.98 c/ 14,193 Stoker Labor Saved 00 0.36 180) Sub-Total 15,020 14,373 ot Benetits 5,428 968 e/ Coverted at 5:1 Gourdes per US$ b/ Assumes duty-free import. c/ Based on wood stumpage value of $5.40/m3 equals $7.71/tonne (FAO estimate of economic cost of plantation wood). | . Sensitivity Analysis Switching Value for Economic Stumpage Wood Value of ‘ Burner Plantation Efficiency Wood 25% $19.80/tonne 38% $36.49/tonne Source: Feinstein, 1990. [page 158] - 143 - ânnex XI Page 1 de 4 SHORT TERM ACTIONS RECOMMENDED SHORT TERM ACTIONS FOR THE ONGOING UNDP/OLADE/BME ENERGY SECTOR ASSISTANCE PROJECT 1. The following short-term actions are recommended for inclusion in the UNDP/OLADE/BME Energy Sector Assistance Project as part of project preparation for the energy strategy for households and small businesses: (a) measure the weighted efficiencies of charcoal kilns in newer charcoal production zones (assistance to BME) (b) gather and test the different charcoal stove models which have not yet been tested: "Capois” cooker, aluminum improved stove of Michael Williams (BME) (c) send a mission to the Dominican Republic to analyze inexpensive gas stoves models (BME) (d) explore the feasibility of cooperative, regional (Latin American) solutions for setting up an LPG import and distribution company în Haiti to compete with the current importer: contacts should be made with the Dominican Republic, Trinidad, Venezuela and Mexico (OLADE assistance to BAPP); (e) quick poll în secondary cities to determine the utilization rates and the price of cooking fuels, as well as the equipment used; (£) analyze the possibilities and modalities for promoting improved _ stoves in secondary towns and cities (possibly in cooperation with AFVE). - STUDY OF THE OPTIONS FOR LPG IMPORTS TO HAITI Background | 1. The Republic of Haiti faces an extremely worrisome problem of deforestation and environmental deterioration which has come about in part due to the use of charcoal in urban centers, especially în the capital. 2. Of the possible interventions which could be made to reduce pressure on the environment caused by urban charcoal consumption, expanding the distribution of LPG should be considered a priority option, for the following reasons: | (a) For the most part, LPG commands a larger potential market among the [page 159] = 146 - ânnex XL ‘ Page 2 de 4 middle and well-to-do classes than do other fuels competing with charcoal, such as kerosene (between 27% and 508 of the household market for LPG, versus less than 10% for kerosene), (b) Taking into account the quantities of gas involved and the importance of protecting the national environment, the projected impact of gas development on external balances (trade balance, balance of payments) appears acceptable even under current (poor) economic circumstances (by the year 2000, purchases of LPG would represent an increase in imports equivalent to 5% of 1989 export levels). : (c) Under current conditions of supply, propane is the least expensive cooking fuel. It also is likely to become the most economic cooking fuel option for the country, as soon as the conditions for supply and distribution have been normalized. 3. In fact, the conditions for supplying LPG to Haiti appear to be skewed. They can be summarized as follows: (a) purchase and transport prices are substantially higher than international benchmarks, (b) import and distribution margins are extremely high (combined margins represent 60 to 70% of the LPG retail price). (ce) existing capacity for docking and storage Îs very reduced (stocks of about two weeks). - 4. This situation is due mainly to the lack of a regulatory mechanism for prices, arising from: (a) the insufficiency of the Government's ability to exercise control over prices, and (b) inadequate competition between petroleum operators (monopoly situation). 5. For these reasons, one of the components for the household energy strategy în Haïti is to encourage competition în the import and distribution of LPG, along the lines of three possible options: (a) secure renegotiated terms for the existing operator under a concession agreement (contract-plan) which includes provisions for the price structure and investments, (b) negotiate an agreement with the Dominican Republic, which currently possesses excess storage capacity. LPG could be re-exported to Haîti from the DR's new terminal at Azua, (c) create autonomous infrastructure for docking, storage and bottling [page 160] - 145 - Annex XL ‘ . Page 3 de 4 near Port-au-Prince. | Objectives 6. The objective of the proposed study is to analyze the short-term and medium-term feasibility of these different options, and thereby recommend to the Haitian Government: (a) the import option or options most suitable for both the country and the Haiîitian consumer in terms of price, supply security, etc. ‘ (b) the bottling and distribution options for the ‘“conventional* (propane) and "popular" (butane) markets for gas, relative to the options identified in (a). (e) the most adequate institutional and financial frameworks for realizing the necessary fixed investments and for operations (import, bottling and distribution), including possible partners, and implementation conditions. . 7. In association with Haîitian counterparts, the consultants should: (1) review the price structure of butane and propane gas: (ii) make a critical . evaluation of existing market studies and studies of LPG supply options; and (441) evaluate the legal and regulatory framework for LPG supply and distribution. 8. On the basis of this analysis, the consultants will establish appropriate contacts with potential LPG suppllers and partners, especially petroleum companies in the following countries: (a) Dominican Republic (b) Caribbean and Latin American countries (Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico) (c) other companies, especially multinationals operating in Haiti or in the Caribbean, : . (d) as well as private Haîtian operators who are likely to participate in future projects. - 9, Subsequent to making these contacts, the consultants and their Haîtian counterparts will make joint missions to visit parties who are likely to .be interested in LPG import and distribution in Haiti, in order to: (a) identify the possible operating arrangements with different | ° potential partners and evaluate their degree of interest and potential commitment, . [page 161] - 146 - . ânnex XL Page 4 de 4 (b) identify and quantify the main parameters, financial and other (xisks, for example), linked to the different potential options. 10. Based on the information gathered în Haiti and during the missions, the consultants will prepare a summary report: (z) describing and evaluating the potential options and frameworks for (4) LPG imports and (11) LPG distribution. (b) 1tenizing and budgeting at least two of the most promising options, . and proposing a detailed action program for their implementation, (c) proposing adequate institutional mechanisms, în particular legal and regulatory aspects. 11. À seminar will then be organized to discuss the recommended option(s) and prepare implementation with relevant institutions, organizations and the private sector. Oxganization and Costs . 12. The study will be carried out over a six month period. It will be placed under the supervision of the Bureau for Petroleum Product Supply (BAPP) and carried out by a teaa composed of the following experts: . an energy economist (ESMAP) for 6 weeks; - a petroleum expert specializing in LPG import and distribution - problems (2.5 months) - a legal expert specializing În petroleun contract negotiation and institutional aspects (1.5 month). 13. The estimated budget for the study is as follows: US$. 1. Consultants 75,000 2. Travel/Per Diem 30,000 3. Seminar/training 15,000 4. ESMAP cost 15,000 5. Contingencies 15.000 TOTAL 150,000 [page 162] - 147- Annexe XII Page 1 de 7 ECONOMIC COST OF CHARCOAL HAITI FORESTRY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION PROJECT1/ | 1. This note briefly presents the results of three methodologies which can be used to calculate the economic price range for charcoal in Haïti. The three methods are: (a) border princing of the nearest substitute fuel (Appendix 1), (b) replacement value pricing (Appendix 2), and (c) marginal environmental cost pricing (Appendix 3). The most conservative approach (border pricing using kerosene as the substitute fuel) yields an economic price for charcoal of $139 per metric ton. By taking the replacement cost of wood based on industrial fuelwood plantations in Haïti, the economic cost of charcoal is $176 per ton. The most broad-reaching approach, incorporating marginal environmental costs, results in an economic valuation of $295 per ton. Thus, the three methodologies result in an economic price range of between $139-295 per ton, or $5.30, 6.70 and 11.20 per 38 kg. sack. Converting this.to an economic pric in Haïtian gourdes/sack, the respective values are 37, 47 and 78 gourdes. In comparison with the existing financial price of 41.9 gourdes/sack, the economic price range is 88-186% of the market price. 2. | Thus, taken at face value, the economic price range gives no guidance as to the - direction that fiscal policy should take in guiding retail charcoal prices. Subjective decisions must be made as to which economic pricing methodology is most appropriate to use in the case of Haïti. Each has its drawbacks and advantages. Border pricing based on the Ieast-cost substitute household fuel (kerosene) is unrealistic as (a) market tests indicate that kerosene is not a prefered fuel for urban Haïti consumers, (b) it is unlikely that a significant number of charcoal users would switch to kerosene, and (c) it is doubtful that the necessary foreign exchange could be made available to pay for massive substitution with an imported fuel. Replacement costing also has its disadvantages: (?) no industrial fuelwood plantations exist in Haïti so the estimated replacement cost of wood is subject to uncertainty and (ii) attempting to replace all wood used for charcoal production from plantations would run up against a number of constraints, e.g. availability of land and other key inputs. The central problem with marginal environmental costing is the paucity of accurate data on key variables such as the rate of soil erosion, the fertilizer value of tree specie* and the degree of siltation caused by tree removal in representative deforested areas of the country. 3. Given the limitations of each method, but mindful of the need to arrive at a recommendation regarding economic pricing, a choice should be made as to which approach is most appropriate, ‘The kerosene parity price can be dropped as it is not a real-world option. Replacement pricing is also unrealistic as industrial planting is unlikely to occur on massive scale. However, smallholder tree planting is occurring on a large scale and may be a more reasonable proxy for replacement costs. Based on smallholder reforestation costs, the replacement value of 1/ Note prepared by Mr. Josef Leïtmann (ESMAP) during the FEPP Appraisal Mission in June 1990. [page 163] - 148 - Annexe XII Page 2 de 7 charcoal is $300/ton (see Appendix 4). Therefore, an appropriate economic value for charcoal in Haïti appears to be in the range of $295-300/ton, ie, between the environmental and smallholder replacement costs. This implies a target retail price of 78-80 gourdes/sack, or an increase of almost 90% above the present price level. [page 164] - 149 - Annexe XII | Page 3 de 7 APPENDIX 1 | The parity price of the least-cost substitute fuel is the economic value of the amount of kerosene required to deliver the same amount of energy as charcoal, taking into account the life- cycle costs of cooking equipment. This value is given by the equation: PP = RV, - RV. * (LC, - LO)/EC, where | PP = Parity Price RV, = Replacement Value of Charcoal = $176.40/ton (see Appendix 2) LC, = Life-cycle Cost of charcoal (improved stove) = $23.02 per delivered GJ LC, = Life-cycle Cost of kerosene (pressure stove) = $18.25 per delivered GJ EC = Energy Cost of charcoal (improved stove) . = $22.53 per delivered GJ By substituting these values into the equation, one arrives at an economic substitute or parity price of $139/ton of charcoal. [page 165] + 150- ânnexe XII Page 4 de 7 APPENDIX 2 Replacement Value of Charcoal : CHARCOAL PRICE BUILD-UP, PORT-AU-PRINCE (REPLACEMENT VALUE) March 1990 . Economic Economic Price Price YXof Conversion Cost CGourde/bag)a/ €US$/tonne) Retail Fector <USS/tonne) Implied Wood 3.7 19.36 9 42.79c/ . Stumpage Labor 6.8 35.56 6 0.36 d/ 12.6 Producer!s Mar 1.6 8.24 4 0.71 g/ 5.85 PRODUCER PRICE 12.0 63.16 2 61.26 at Farm Gate . Bag Cost 1.3 6.8 3 0.71 g/ 4.86 Transport Tax 1.0 5.26 è Transport 6.0 31.58 LO 0.93 1/ 29.29 to Port-au-Prince Loeding/Unload 1.2 6.32 3 0.36 d/ 2.24 Intermediary Margins 7.0 36.84 17 0.71 e/ 26.16 WHOLESALE PRICE 28.5 150.00 : 68 123.81 bholesale Marg 5.6 29.47 13 0.71 e/ 20.93 Transport 2.2 11.58 5 0.93 1/ 10.76 to Neighborhoods : Retail Margin 5.6 29.47 LE 0.71 e/ 20.93 RETAIL PRICE 1.9 220.53 100 176.40 €sold by sack) Breakdoun Marg 4.2 22.05 ‘ 0.71 g/ 15.66 c-10%) RETAIL PRICE 46.1 242.58 192.06 (sold in small qty.) # Per sack of 38 kg charconl. bd Transfer peyment to government or collection agents. ÿ based on plantation wood à $5.60/n° economfc cost (FAO), equivalent to $7.71/tonne (700 kg/a”. Estimated 5.55 tonnes of mood per tonne of chercoal, based on 20% carbonization efficiency Catr-dry basis) and 10% losses în handling and transport. y Based on rural unskilled Labor shadow value of 0.5, ‘ y 100% local cost. . ÿy Based on estimated 75% foreign component. Source: FAO (1990): Medina (1985); Mission estimates. [page 166] | + 151- Annexe XII ‘ ‘ Page 5 de 7 APPENDIX 3 From a recent analysis of the economic value of wood in Haïti (Hosier and Bernstein, 1989), the marginal opportunity cost of a resource should reflect its long-run marginal value based on both its immediate environmental effects and the needs of future generations. Mathematically, this can be expected as: MOC, = MC + MEC, where MOC, is the marginal opportunity cost of the resource, MC is the direct harvesting costs or marginal costs as normally perceived and MEC, is the marginal external cost of the good to different sectors. . In this analysis, the harvesting cost (MC) is considered to be equal to the financial . price of the woodfuel to the consuming sector. This is currently, at most, 35-50 Gourdes per tonne (US$5-7/tonne). The marginal external contribution of trees to soil improvement (MEC)) is between US$12-20/TOE or US$4-6/tonne. The on-site contribution of trees to the reduction of soil erosion (MEC.) is US$45/TOE or US$14/tonne. The off-site contribution of trees to sediment ‘ redution is calculated at US$10/TOE or US$3/tonne. Therefore, the range for the economic value of wood in Haïti can be summed up as follows: Element Economic Value (US$/tonne) MC 5-7 ME, (soil improvement) 46 ME, (soil erosion) 14 | ° MEC, (sedimentation) — MOC, 26-30 Thus, if no lower-cost environmental damage avoidance measures are available, the economic opportunity of wood on the stump in Haïti can be taken as between US$26-30 per tonne {US$18-21 per m°). [page 167] + 152- âunexe XII Page 6 de 7 CHARCOAL PRICE BUILD-UP, PORT-AU-PRINCE (ENVIRONMENTAL) March 1990 | Economic Economic Price Price YX of Conversion Cost (Gourde/bag)a/ (US$/tonne) Retail Foctor (US$/tonne) Isplied Wood 3.7 19.36 9 160.95c/ Stumpage Labor 6.8 35.56 Lo 0.36 d/ 12.62 Producer!s Mar 1.6 8.24 6 Cha 72 5.85 PRODUCER PRICE 12.0 63.16 2 179.42 ° et Ferm Gate Bag Cost 13 6.8 3 0.71 9/ 4.86 Transport Tax 4.0 5.26 2 ‘ Transport 6-0 31.58 LL 0.93 f/ 29.29 to Port-au-Prince Loeding/Unlioad 1.2 6.32 3 0.36 g/ 2.24 Intermediary Margins 70 . 36.8 L14 0.71 g/ 26.16 VHOLESALE PRICE 28.5 150.00 6 241.97 Wolesale Marg 5.6 29.47 13 ° 0.71 e/ 20.93 Transport 2.2 11.58 5 0.93 f/ 10.7 to Mefghborhoods Retail Margin 5.6 . 29.47 LE 0.71 g/ 20.93 RETAIL PRICE 41.9 220.53 100 296.56 {sold by sack) Breakdoun Marg 4.2 22.05 0.71 9 15.66 c-10X) RETAIL PRICE 46.1 242.58 - 310.2 {sold în small qty.) ° # Per sack of 36 kg charcoal. [4 Yrensfer peyment to government or go testion agents. g based on plantation mood à #19. economie cost (Hosier & Bernstein), equivalent to S29/tonne (709 kg/n°). Estimated 5.55 tonnes of wood per tonne of charcoal, based on 20% carbonization efficiency (air-dry basis) and 10X Losses 1n hendling and transport. y Based on rural unskilled Labor shadou value of 0.5. F1 100% Local cost. ÿ/ Based on estimated 75% foreign component. Source: : Appendix 2; FAO (1990); Hosier & Bernsteïîn (1989); Mission estimates. [page 168] - 153- Annexe XII Page 7 de 7 APPENDIX 4 CHARCOAL PRICE BUILD-UP, PORT-AU-PRINCE (SMALLHOL"ER REFORESTATION) ifarch 1990 ‘ Economic Economic Price Price % of Conversion Cost (Gourde/bag)a/ {US$/tonne) Retail Factor (USS/tonne) Implieod Wood 3.7 19.36 9 - 160.50ç/ Stunpage Lebor 6.8 35.56 46 0.36 12.62 Producer!s Nar 1.6 8.24 4 0.71 e/ 5.85 PRODUCER PRICE 12.0 63.16 æ 184.97 at Farm Gate Bag Cost : 1.3 6.8 3 0.71 g/ 6.86 Transport Tax 4.0 5.26 2 Transport 6.0 31.58 46 0.93 f/ 29.29 to Port-au-Prince : Losding/UnLoed 1.2 6.32 3 0.36 d/ 2.24 Intermediary Hargins 7.0 36.86 7 0.71 26.16 VHOLESALE PRICE 28.5 150.00 68 247.52 : tholesale Narg 5.6 29.47 3 071 g 20.93 Transport 2.2 11.58 5 0.93 f/ 10.74 to Nofghborhoods Retail Margin 5.6 29.67 3 0.71 e/ 20.93 RETAIL PRICE 41.9 220.53 100 - 300.11 (sold by sack) Breskdoun Harg 4.2 22.05 0.71 e/ 15.6 (-10%) RETAIL PRICE 66.1 242.58 ° 315.77 sold 1n small qty.) ro [71 Per sack of 38 kg charcosl. ° b Transfer payment to government or collection agents. g Based on smallhotder tree plant{ng costs averaging $1.50 per survived tree, with a present ‘ value of 830/ton of wood. Estimated 5.55 tonnes of wood per tonne of charcoal, based on 20% carbonization efficiency (aïr-dry basis) end 10% Losses in handling end transport. 74 Based on rural unskilied Labor shadou value of 0.5. nr 100% local cost. : [page 169] - 154 - Annex_XLII Page 1 of 2 REPORTS AND WORK PERFORMED FOR THE STUDY Consultants’ Reports - Socio-economic aspects and marketing of alternatives for fuel consumption, Christian Bonaparte, May 1990. - Energy strategy for the residential sector and small businesses. Draft document. Michel Matly. June 1990. . Woodfuel supply. Calixte Clérismé and Carole Roy. September, 1990. - Energy demand in the residential sector. Carde Roy. October, 1990. Residential Consuners in Port-au-Prince (a) a survey of 400 households (b) measurements of charcoal consumption in twenty households taken over a week-long period (c) interviews with eight groups: five groups each representing different socio-economic characteristics; one group consisting of owners of butane stoves; one group of kerosene stove owners, and one group of households not connected to electricity (d) a census of the types of stoves currently in use (e) a survey of dietary habits among 150 school students, (f) marketing demonstrations for cooking equipment given to five groups (66 total participants, 17 men ard 49 women). (a) a survey of 200 small businesses: 51 bakeries, 53 dry-cleaners, 47 *manjé kwi”, 49 restaurants, (b) individual and group interviews of business leaders in the different industrial categories affected by the strategy. (&) a census of charcoal retail outlets in the capital: 2300 outlets polled ‘ (b) a survey of 205 retail outlets in Port-au-Prince: 175 for charcoal and 30 for firewood [page 170] - 155 - ânnex XLLIL Page 2 of 2 (c) a survey of 101 retail outlets in Cap Haitien, Gonaïves and Les Cayes + (4) a canvass of new markets în Port-au-Prince and În some average towns to obtain a sampling (numbering approximately 250) of charcoal prices and weights. | (a) a count of the number of charcoal shipments entering Port-au-Prince ° during one week in February 1990. (b) a survey of 100 transporters: 90 charcoal transporters and 10 firewood transporters - . (c) a survey of 67 rural charcoal and firewood merchants in the north, northeast, the Artibonite and the south. (d) a survey of 90 charcoal producers in the same areas, (e) in-depth interviews with 10 district forestry agents. [page 171] - 156 - . . A XIY . Page 1of5 BUDGET DES COMPOSANTES DE LA STRATEGIE AAlTt : FORESTNY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION PACJECT . + . HOUSBHOLO GNERGY CONSERVATION SUB-PAOJECT . TAGLS 1: SUS-PAGJECT BUOGAT 4Y CONPONENT 1991/2 1992/3 1993/0 TOTAL COMSOMENT/c38T & vs @ uss Ci uss & uss ° À. NEU PRODUCT GEVELGPMENT . Caokstove Expert CS months) 34 . © % Laboratory equipment 1 . FC] 1 Prototype develognent 3 3 Q Consumer tescing . 3 . Û 3 0. Suh-tocat . é É TS g . © CR é 37 B+ ARTISANAL TRAINING CNGS COXTRACT) F. Preparation of training mecariai s $ 0. Rental af ersining sices (10x) 6 2 10 Q Per diem for traînees (30G/day) 62 10 Li © Trainer salaries (300G/session) + 1 | 9 Toot kits (350/k1t) Li 3 . 12 . Terplaces (2/srtissn ® 306) 18 é ta] (] Metal and rivacs (C60 stoves) L © Q 1 . Training Coordinacor (15090/m) te 16 27 9 ° Miscellaneous 2 1 3 c] Ovarhesd (192) 17 2 s a : 2 2 Sub- total 129 12 33 + ° 167 LE C. PULICITY CAMPAIGN (PR FIRM CONTRACT) Campaign Coordinscor (25000/n) æ . 30 . ss 0 van 20 g : 2 . Van perstionat costs $ 3 s 3 10 é Neighbarhaod demonstrations (20) 10 10 . 29 8 : Silibcards (18 mæ x 30) 1a0 360 : sci a? Coneests 15 s . . 15 Q TV and radis spats pr] 400 . éca 0 : T-shires and decats (30007 60 Lol 150 0 Miscellaneous so 106 ‘ 150 ] Qvorhesd (152) 8 3 169 0 =ä1 Q Sub- total 7 2 114 3 4771 3 : . 0. NCNITORING ANO ŒVALUATION C(NGO CONTRACT) Henitoring Cagrdinacer (2000G/m) 16 æ 26 é Ch PAP Quality Contrailer (10006/m) 8 1è 12 32 0 Secsndary Qualfey Cantral ler 8 1e 12 32 © ° Transport & per diem 6 é 6 té 0 Sentissicfan (13000/m) LE 18 18 «8 9 Infcisl consimer survey pa . 2z 9. . ! Guatiey contrat labels C65k) ta Li 80 130 a Gffice equiprent 10 0 10 hiscel Lanesus 13 a 20 ss Q Cvarhead (152) 16 2 a 2 .-2s 60 2 Sub-total 108 12 152 ‘0 49 458 12 B. LNSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHEN(HG (SME) Trafning/scudy tour 10 © 10 6x6 vohicte . à 0 a Vehicle cperationat ccsts 3 2 3 2 3 2 8 s Energy Bcononise (15000/m) 18 °°, 18 3 9 Adninistrative Asst. (10000/m) 12. 1 1 x ; Driver (730G/æ) 9 .. . Sub-tocal & 5 4 2 «2 a #8 5 PF. ESMAP SUPERVISION ‘ , . ask manager (20 weeks) + 2 ta té Toavet and ger dien (S trips) 6 2 e 10 Secratarial sucport 2 2 3 7. Report translation . El $ fub-total a 18 30 6 : torar o11 133 1376 7 2 32 2523 1% PHYSICAL COXTINGENCIES (10%) pu » x . 5 # 3 53 É4 PRICE CONFINCENCIES (203) Gao TOTAL tias 177 1758 3 31 &1 32% 355 [page 172] - 157. Annex XIV : eo Page 20f 5 HAITI FORESTRY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION PROJECT ‘ HOUSEHOLD ENERGY CONSERVATION SUBPROJECT * ° FIGURE 15 IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE . Project year 1991/2 , 1992/3 1993/6 Calendar year 91 >< 1992 >< 1993 >< >< ‘ ftem/Action . Ca) Hew Product Development Rehabilitation of BHE Laboratory Xe> Efticlency testing of rech p “aje Xe> ‘Evaluation of artisanal prodin .ion system Xa> Prototype davelopmant Xa> ° Consumer acceptability testing Ke» * : Re-design (if necessary) Xs=> {b) Artisanal Training . NGO identification, selection, contracting Xss> . Design of training matertels Xe> - Recruitment of trainers & traînees X=> . Training: - Port-au-Prince stovemskers Xe>' Xe> Xe Xe» Port-au-Prince fronworkers X=> Xe> Xe> | Secondary city stovemakers Xe» Xe> : . | Secondary city fronworkers Xe» ? £valustion/re-design of currieulun X=> Additional training as necessary Xsssm> Contrsct evaluation/re-negotiation Xan> Ce) Publicity and Education Cempaigns ‘ PR firm identification, selection, contracting X=2> ° ‘ Design of cempaigns Xe=> . Implementation of campaigns Xassasuss> ‘ Contract evalustion/ra-negotiation Xau> . Continued/re-das {gned campaign ° Xassnsassasus> (d) Monitoring and Evaluation NGO identifiestion, selection, contracting Xs> Initial consumer survey LE Quality control program Xausaussan>. Xscszsosssuss> .{pnanesesssse> + Quarterly reporting X=> Xe Xa>Xa>Xn>Xer Xo>ke>Xe>X=> Mid-tern evaluation report Xso> . final evetustion report | Xes> Contract evaluation/ra-negotiation Xes> Xe Ce) Nensgement information . Recruitment of Cockstove Expert Xe> Cookstove Expert consul tancy Xnss> NGO training céntract (18 montho) Xussssoass> Xususasssa> . PA firm publicity contract (22 months) Xvossssausn> Xesussossasss> NGO monitoring contract (32 montha) Xauaauses> Xansaraassssu> Xussauuatanus> e Energy Economist (36 months) . Xassenssssase> Xessaossszsna> Xesscssssanze> Other BME staff (36 months x 2) Xousanoasnese> Nuaasooousauu> Xssavanassoss> 8KE training/study tour Lo , Vehicle procurement Xse> NB: Bach “=” represents slt or. part of one calendar month . . [page 173] ‘ - 158 : Annex XIV Page 3 of 5 Tableau 2: BUDGET DETAILLE DE LA COMPOSANTE D'OUVERTURE DU MARCHE DU GAZ \ Code A nt Loi te à Composante/Gout (x1000) - au CE Etude options developpement 88 8 : Appul au BAPP | ‘ 7 70 ss 75 ss 45 180 190 Assistance tech. intern, (6 mois) 30 60 sa 120 Deplacements/Misslons 10 10 10 8 ‘10 8 s0 20 Formation 28 10 10 8 10 L] 45 20 Esonomiste petroller (3000G/m) 38 38 ss 108 k Equipements . 20 8 $ 3a Investissements 125 125 125 128 3100 5080 s3s0 8330 ingenierie 128 125 125 125 250 250 Genie oivil 2500 600 2300 600 Mise a quai 76 280 78 260 Stackage . ° 800 1600 800 1600 Embouteiliage . 2s 100 <s 100 Pare bouteilles 2500 , ‘2800 Totel 195 2e1 180 200 315$ 8125 9530 5806 . Imprevus (20%) 39 .. 86 .86 -40. 651 1029 706 1121 Grand Total TS SC LA . LA ‘ . [page 174] -159 - ‘ âAnnex XIV Page 4 of 5 Tableau 3: BUDGET DE LA COMPOSANTE DE MODERNISATION DU SECTEUR CHARBONNIER CELLULE COMBUSTIBLES LIGNEUX Personnel ° ‘ ‘ Responsable 24 0 24 8 8 8 24 Forastier 18 0 18 6 6 6 18 Agroeconomiste 18 0 18 6 6 6 18 ° Soclologue 18 0 18 8 6 6 18 Cartographe 18 0 18 6 6 6 18 Personnel administratif 60 Ce) 60 20 20 20 60 ‘Equipement 8 vehicules 0 80 50 "60 "0 0 60 Ordinateurs/Materiel bureau .: © 80 30 ‘© so 0 0 30 Fonctionnement 80 40 90 30 80 830 go Deplacements 30 0 80 10 10 10 30 SCHEMA DIRECTEUR/AMELIORATION DU CONTROLE . - Construction/modification points controle 150 50 200 0 0 200 200 . ATCT exterieure 0: 78 75 50 25 0 78 ATCT haitienne: 100 0 100 80 830 20 100 DEFINITION PROGRAMME COMPENSATION 2 Soclologues 24 0 24 0 12 12 , 24 2 Agronomes 24 , 0 24 0 12 12 7 24 ‘ ATCT exterieure 0 50 80 0 25 25 80 ATCT haitienne 100 0 100 0 50 so 100 APPUI TECHNIQUE AUX CHARBONNIERS . . Forestier 18 0 18 6 .6 . 6 18 Chef formation 12 0 12 4 4 .4 12 10 Animateurs 45 0 485 15 ‘15 18 485 ATCT formation 80 0 80 40 20 20 80 ATCT gestion 80 60 140 60 40 40 140 Fonds de roulement 10 0 10 s 5 0 10 Total 879 855 1234 402 836 498 1234 Imprevus 88 36 123 40 4 50 128 Grand [page 175] ° = 160 . Annex XIV Page 5 of 5 Tableau 4: BUDGET DE LA COMPOSANTE DE PILOTAGE DE LA STRATEGIE (1000 Uss) HER DSUBEE ETES HÉOENHA A GREEN Personnel 7 - Responsable 24 0 24 8 8 8 24 Forestier 18 0 18 6 6 6 18 Economiste 18 0 18 6 6 6 18 Pers. administratif 48 0 48 16 16 16 48 AT long terme 60 300 860 120 120 120 360 AT court terme locale 60 0 60 20 20 20 60 Formation/Promotion 10 35 45 15 145 15 45 Equipement . 2 vehicules 0 34 34 34 0 0 34 Ordi./bureau 0 16 16 16 0 0 16 Fonctionnement 25 50 75 25 25 25 75 . Total 263 435 698 266 216 216 698 Imprevus (10%) CR CL | Grand total#"288 "470" 768 209 330 rss 76e A LA [page 176] ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME COMPLETED ACTIVITIES Country Activity Date Number RE GRR TT QU TT RC RE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (AFR) Africa Regional Anglophone Africa Household Energy Workshop 07/88 085/88 Regional Power Seminar on Reducing Electric Power System Losses in Africa 08/88 087/88 Institutional Evaluation of EGL 02/89 098/89 Biomass Mapping Regional Workshops 05/89 — Francophone Household Energy Workshop 08/89 103/89 Interafrican Electrical Engineering College: Proposals for Short- and Long-Term Development 03/90 112/90 Biomass Assessment and Mapping 03/90 — Angola Energy Assessment 05/89 4708-ANG Power Rehabilitation and Technical Assistance 10/91 142/91 Benin Energy Assessment 06/85 5222-BEN Botswana Energy Assessment 09/84 4998-BT Pump Electrification Profeasibility Study 01/86 047/86 Review of Electricity Service Connection Policy 07/87 071/87 Tuli Block Farms Electrification Study 07/87 072/87 Household Energy Issues Study 02/88 — Urban Household Energy Strategy Study 05/91 132/91 Burkina Faso Energy Assessment 01/86 5730-BUR Technical Assistance Program 03/86 052/86 Urban Household Energy Strategy Study 06/91 134/91 Burundi Energy Assessment 06/82 3778-BU Petroleum Supply Management ‘ 01/84 012/84 Status Report 02/84 011/84 Presentation of Energy Projects for the Fourth Five-Year Plan (1983-1987) 05/85 036/85 Improved Charcoal Cookstove Strategy 09/85 042/85 Peat Utilization Project 11/85 046/85 Energy Assessment 01/92 9215-BU Cape Verde Energy Assessment 08/84 5073-CV Household Energy Strategy Study 02/90 110/90 Comoros Energy Assessment 01/88 7104-COM Congo Energy Assessment 01/88 6420-COB Power Development Plan 03/90 106/90 Côte d'Ivoire Energy Assessment 04/85 5250-IVC Improved Biomass Utilization 04/87 069/87 Power System Efficiency Study - 12/87 — Power Sector Efficiency Study (French) 02/92 141/91 Ethiopia Energy Assessment 07/84 4741-ET Power System Efficiency Study 10/85 045/85 Agricultural Residue Briquetting Pilot Project 12/86 062/86 Bagasse Study 12/86 063/86 Cooking Efficiency Project 12/87 — [page 177] -2- Country Activity ‘ Date Number EE Gabor: Energy Assessment 07/88 6915-GA The Gambia Energy Assessment 11/83 4743-GM Solar Water Heating Retrofit Project 02/85 030/85 Solar Photovoltaic Applications 03/85 032/85 Petroleum Supply Management Assistance 04/85 035/85 Ghana Energy Assessment 11/86 6234-GH Energy Rationalization in the Industrial Sector 06/88 084/88 Sawmill Residues Utilization Study 11/88 074/87 Guinea Energy Assessment 11/86 6137-GUI Guinea-Bissau Energy Assessment 08/84 5083-GUB Recommended Technical Assistance Projects 04/85 033/85 Management Options for the Electric Power and Water Supply Subsectors 02/90 100/90 Power and Water Institutional Restructuring (French) 04/91 118/91 Kenya Energy Assessment 05/82 3800-KE Power System Efficiency Study 03/84 014/84 Status Report 05/84 016/84 Coal Conversion Action Plan 02/87 — Solar Water Heating Study 02/87 066/87 Peri-Urban Woodfuel Development 10/87 076/87 Power Master Plan 11/87 — Lesotho Evergy Assessment 01/84 4676-LSO Liberia Energy Assessment 12/84 5279-LBR Recommended Technical Assistance Projects 06/85 038/85 Power System Efficiency Study : 12/87 081/87 Madagascar Energy Assessment 01/87 5700-MAG Power System Efficiency Study 12/87 075/87 Malawi Energy Assessment 08/82 3903-MAL Technical Assistance to Improve the Efficiency of Fuelwood Use in the Tobacco Industry 11/83 009/83 Status Report 01/84 013/84. Mali Energy Assessment (French) 11/91 8423-MLI Islamic Republic of Mauritania Energy Assessment 04/85 5224-MAU Household Energy Strategy Study 07/90 123/90 Mauritius Energy Assessment 12/81 3510-MAS Status Report 10/83 008/83 Power System Efficiency Audit 05/87 070/87 Bagasse Power Potential 10/87 077/87 Mozambique Energy Assessment 01/87 6128-MOZ Household Electricity Utilization Study 03/90 113/90 Niger Energy Assessment 05/84 4642-NIR Status Report 02/86 051/86 Improved Stoves Project 12/87 080/87 Household Energy Conservation and Substitution 01/88 082/88 Nigeria Energy Assessment 08/83 4440-UNI Rwanda Energy Assessment 06/82 3779-RW Energy Assessment (English and French) 07/91 8017-RW Status Report 05/84 017/84 Improved Charcoal Cookstove Strategy 08/86 059/86 Improved Charcoal Production Techniques 02/87 065/87 [page 178] .3- Country Activity Dote Number Rwanda Commercialization of Improved Charcoal Stoves and Carbonization Techniques Mid-Term Progress Report 12/91 141/91 SADCC SADCC Regional Sector: Regional Capacity-Building Program for Energy Surveys and Policy Analysis 11/91 — Sao Tome and Principe Energy Assessment 10/85 5803-STP Senegal Energy Assessment 07/83 4182-SE Status Report 10/84 025/84 Industrial Energy Conservation Study 05/85 037/85 Preparatory Assistance for Donor Meeting 04/86 056/86 Urban Household Energy Strategy 02/89 096/89 Seychelles Energy Assessment 01/84 4693-SEY Electric Power System Efficiency Study 08/84 021/84 Sierra Leone Energy Assessment 10/87 6597-SL Somalia Evergy Assessment 12/85 5796-SO Sudan Management Assistance to the. Ministry of Energy and Mining 05/83 003/83 Energy Assessment 07/83 4511-SU Power System Efficiency Study 06/84 018/84 Status Report 11/84 026/84 Wood Energy/Forestry Feasibility 07/87 073/87 Swaziland Energy Assessment ‘ 02/87 6262-SW Tanzania Energy Assessment 11/84 4969-TA Peri-Urban Woodfuels Feasibility Study 08/88 086/88 Tobacco Curing Efficiency Study 05/89 102/89 Remote Sensing and Mapping of Woodlands 06/90 — Industrial Energy Efficiency Technical Assistance 08/90 122/90 Togo Energy Assessment 06/85 5221-TO Wood Recovery in the Nangbeto Lake 04/86 055/86 Power Efficiency Improvement 12/87 078/87 Uganda Energy Assessment 07/83 4453-UG Status Report 08/84 020/84 Institutional Review of the Energy Sector 01/85 029/85 Energy Efficiency in Tobacco Curing Industry 02/86 049/86 Fuelwood/Forestry Feasibility Study 03/86 053/86 Power System Efficiency Study 12/88 092/88 Energy Efficiency Improvement in he Brick and Tile Industry 02/89 097/89 Tobacco Curing Pilot Project 03/89 UNDP Terminal Report Zaire Energy Assessment 05/86 5837-ZR Zambia Energy Assessment 01/83 4110-ZA Status Report 08/85 039/85 Energy Sector Institutional Review 11/86 060/86 Power Subsector Efficiency Study 02/89 093/88 Energy Strategy Study 02/89 094/88 Urban Household Energy Strategy Study 08/90 121/90 Zimbabwe Energy Assessment 06/82 3765-ZIM Power System Efficiency Study 06/83 005/83 Status Report 08/84 019/84 Power Sector Management Assistance Project 04/85 034/85 Petroleum Management Assistance 12/89 109/89 [page 179] .4- Country Activity Date Number LR TR RC € Ÿ Zimbabwe Power Sector Management Institution Building 09/89 — Charcoal Utilization Prefeasibility Study | 06/90 119/90 Integrated Energy Strategy Evaluation 01/92 8768-ZIM EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC (EAP) Asia Regional Pacific Household and Rural Energy Seminar 11/90 — China County-Level Rural Energy Assessments 05/89 101/89 Fuelwood Forestry Preinvestment Study 12/89 105/89 Fiji Energy Assessment 06/83 4462-FU Indonesia Energy Assessment 11/81 3543-IND Status Report 09/84 022/84 Power Generation Efficiency Study 02/86 050/86 Energy Efficiency in the Brick, Tile and Lime Industries 04/87 067/87 Diesel Generating Plant Efficiency Study 12/88 095/88 Urban Household Energy Strategy Study 02/90 107/90 Biomass Gasifier Preinvestment Study Vols. I & II 12/90 124/90 Malaysia Sabah Power System Efficiency Study 03/87 068/87 Gas Utilization Study 09/91 S645-MA Myanmar Energy Assessment 06/85 5416-BA Papua New Guinea Energy Assessment 06/82 3882-PNG Status Report 07/83 006/83 Energy Strategy Paper - -— Institutional Review in the Energy Sector 10/84 023/84 Power Tariff Study 10/84 024/84 Solomon Islands Energy Assessment 06/83 4404-SOL South Pacific Petroleum Transport in the South Pacific 05/86 — Thailand Energy Assessment 09/85 5793-TH Rural Energy Issues and Options 09/85 044/85 Accelerated Dissemination of Improved Stoves and Charcoal Kilns 09/87 079/87 Northeast Region Village Forestry and Woodfuels Preinvestment Study 02/88 083/88 Impact of Lower Oil Prices 08/88 — Cosl Development and Utilization Study 10/89 — Tonga Energy Assessment 06/85 5498-TON Vanuatu Energy Assessment 06/85 5577-VA Western Samoa Energy Assessment 06/85 5497-WSO SOUTH ASIA (SAS) Bangladesh Energy Assessment 10/82 3873-BD Priority Investment Program 05/83 002/83 Status Report 04/84 015/84 Power System Efficiency Study 02/85 031/85 Small Scale Uses of Gas Prefeasibility Study 12/88 — [page 180] .5- Country Activity Date Number ELLE um India Opportunities for Commercialization of Nonconventional Energy Systems 11/88 091/88 Maharashtra Bagasse Energy Efficiency Project 05/91 120/91 Mini-Hydro Development on Irrigation Dams and Canal Drops Vols. I, IE and III 07/91 139/91 Nepal Energy Assessment 08/83 4474-NEP Status Report 01/85 028/84 Pakistan Household Energy Assessment 05/88 — Assessment of Photovoltaic Programs, Applications, and Markets 10/89 103/89 Sri Lanka Energy Assessment 05/82 3792-CE Power System Loss Reduction Study 07/83 007/83 Status Report 01/84 010/84 Industrial Energy Conservation Study 03/86 054/86 EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) Portugal Energy Assessment 04/84 4824-PO Turkey Energy Assessment 03/83 3877-TU MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MNA) Morocco Energy Assessment 03/84 4157-MOR Status Report 01/86 048/86 Syria Energy Assessment 05/86 5822-SYR Electric Power Efficiency Study 09/88 089/88 Energy Efficiency Improvement in the Cement Sector 04/89 099/89 Energy Efficiency {mprovement in the Fertilizer Sector 06/90 115/90 Tunisia Fuel Substitution 03/90 — Yemen Energy Assessment 12/84 4892-YAR Energy Investment Priorities 02/87 6376-YAR Household Energy Strategy Study Phase I 03/91 126/91 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (LAC) LAC Regional Regional Seminar on Electric Power System Loss Reduction in the Caribbean 07/89 — Bolivia Energy Assessment 04/83 4213-BO National Energy Plan 12/87 — National Energy Plan (Spanish) 08/91 131/91 La Paz Private Power Technical Assistance 11/90 111/90 Natural Gas Distribution: Economics and Regulation 01/92 125/92 Prefeasibility Evaluation Rural Electrification and Demand Assessment 04/91 129/91 Chile Energy Sector Review 08/88 7129-CH Colombia Energy Strategy Paper 12/86 — Costa Rica Energy Assessment 01/84 4655-CR Recommended Technical Assistance Projects 11/84 027/84 Forest Residues Utilization Study 02/90 108/90 [page 181] _6- Country Activity Date Number Én Dominican Energy Assessment 05/91 8234-DO Republic Ecuador Energy Assessment 12/85 5865-EC Energy Strategy Phase I 07/88 — Energy Strategy 04/91 — Haiti Energy Assessment 06/82 3672-HA Status Report 08/85 041/85 Honduras Energy Assessment 08/87 6476-HO0 Petroleum Suppiy Management 03/91 128/91 Jamaica Energy Assessment 04/85 5466-JM Petroleum Procurement, Refining, and Distribution Study 11/86 061/86 Energy Efficiency Building Code Phase 1 03/88 — Energy Efficiency Standards and Labels Phase I 03/88 — Management Information System Phase I 03/88 — Charcoal Production Project 09/88 090/88 FIDCO Sawmill Residues Utilization Study 09/88 088/88 Mexico Improved Charcoal Production Within F'rest Management for the State of Veracruz 08/91 138/91 Panama Power System Efficiency Study 06/83 004/83 Paraguay Energy Assessment 10/84 5145-PA Recommended Technical Assistance Projects 09/85 — Status Report 09/85 043/85 Peru Energy Assessment 01/84 4677-PE Status Report 08/85 040/85 Proposal for a Stove Dissemination Program in the Sierra 02/87 064/87 Energy Strategy 12/90 — Saint Lucia Energy Assessment 09/84 5111-SLU St. Vincent and the Grenadines Energy Assessment 09/84 5103-STV Trinidad and Tobago Energy Assessment 12/85 5930-TR GLOBAL Energy End Use Efficiency: Research and Strategy 11/89 — Metering (English and Spanish) 07/91 — Women and Energy-A Resource Guide The International Network: Policies and Experience 04/90 — Assessment of Personal Computer Models for Energy Planning in Developing Countries 10/91 — 032492 [page 182] IBRD 23061 ë # HAITI i 20 HOUSEHOLD ENERGY | pré Alentie | Ocees OA LE oAL HT PRODUCTION AREAS (CE: LR R Cap Haien {4 "À CHARCOAL PRODUCTION AREAS etougs © ns " ——— MAIN HIGHWAYS EN Mit L © SELECTEDCMES Cr ) eee INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES è © JB 0 ox bon por y Mel ul ef nt "R, 2 ET CCE LEA Ft. Marc PRES = 19 - PA > 19 : 74 = N di Z 1980 US EN NR / 2 Jérémie ms (] 25. 5 KILOMETERS z SD Coribbean 73 Sea , 7x 8 \ eve 20 TS Atlantic Ocean 20 Ÿ BANAMAS Ailoniie Ocean Port-de-Poix, S D > . 1 T7 Le . Caribbean a!" . o à & © EH 7e 2 5 z | / Hinche Z 4 ° 4 2 1990 Er JE w - ‘ - TS NX . Un . S os . j 7 L. Ù ‘ v i TRE TT RS pe 2 . : LUS A. 3 9 _# ®, Fos Coyes S | - KLOMETERS . 7e De Caribbean yg Sea 72 ” JURE 1991 [page 183] IBRD 23067 ARS 730 LT Re 700 4 ame ATLANTIC men OCEAN 00. a } LE . MÔLE 81 meoiAs d HE ) JaMAICA ec. LS PRO ce A an Fe À , PA Tee | A dr pee 4 2 D : ) u User i à . 4 F ff ‘ See ET ris tue, meme CoRBAEAN Sn ce COS ( RS Lee ‘ ÉAcu du Nord gimenod ns a Rene CU ATAEN ES K LE É MYA cap Pésu) \ # À [a NCA Sigaut €, arnelade 3 % PA 5, on h HAITI Ve REA TL LE DE Mau tareire ges Le, ET) Le Le A) HOUSEHOLD ENERGY SR À NE IS STRATEGY STUDY . PLU PCR Pere dus) CHARCOAL PRODUCTION AREAS IN 1990 A ARTE TT RRLER Se 2 Ne DDesolines L Ce Ç LE \ Ve Lun Grande Sole TT " à : = \. re Lan v à : l Up \ _ : CHARCOAL PRODUCTION AREAS (1990) > PU À LÀ $ Œ ROAD CONTROL POSTS En € A SE D MARMME CONTROL POSTS x EN _… > ; st Ma LR AN Ne * \ Ds dr 7 LE NT RE Koonme À —— ASPHAIT CPAS fhomonde" a HT GRAVEL s. à E, fo ‘Terme, Sd Ciroo ———— DIRT 7 À ur SR 4 F. em DEPARTMENT BOUNDARIES TT 4e, pus ES et dd: Ç — o —"— INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES . Te, FNIT à Ge ut . À = KITOMETERS sonâre no s SE V ,) RL ETTÀ i z € \ (- : 4 > LA: s JEREAIE ES N salle > LE Len, . BON Ph honcngng 4 Aer ee 5 7 Probe “+ enEmIE D. 2 Chan, CITE SOLEIL Nec 8 Jess ne S nl z 7 ue ce 7 MARTSSANT TK N 0 Leo Des OS ven me. AT + Co oo _ PaNe ges des Bcauen Fete à Dame- / É . AIR. CCE | Rate co als + is S& Fa N Du x EST : À 2 TER ge seen Most D TGRESSIER ae de ent 18 d'aino: NT seOsoures Chaudg, , ag ne, DATE" E L 7 TT QT D E = 4 RE Sd y BUTEUR ” ® d A a m7 ae Se LYS a AR re S md EEE N o MR RATE ES TR 1 Trgaréiment Le , ee Ter” . b le-Amse dhoéæg — Se D ‘ 7 ê a . - Ts. à LA = < ç Ps ESS = eee SEA 7, os: Roche tar, IQ? S ls Eyes D perde ter N : Met nd | Scan sacre ni k _ TE on EX: ù - ne one D PR YA CE ARIAREAN 5 FA HÉROS MMNNIMMNEENRE NS RSS L RSS AR À 2% COS 730 ren 7600 n JÜNE 1991 [page 184] Ÿ Le Atlontie PEER TS IBRD 22676 | Ne, Ocaan 2 Atlantic Re). 7 ! L 5 A, GS Cat, oi has ee) Ocean : ” Port de Paix Lemei 20 | ï :Q . ï HA. ponte PUERTO LA DEPRAAEN j ET Em Ve Borgne w ‘ PONS ss mb jose, CS 0 is HP PE ET ml LE ES" "Si 8 CON eee > Ye cp Mn l (l 1) es ES ne se 4 ” . Caribbean Sea il { s'il (l KE sur tape Fu Bombh [Net AS Le RS MID. Gros Mome® Se Rat Se ce 6 RTS un Dr (1 SUN . LR MO > << Terrier Rouge ALU gere Narre AE & À WA Ce NE n ! F HAITI SE de CAR Er À ORESTRY AND ENVIRONME NN 0 ve as NTAL PROTECTION PROJECT SN PRINCIPAL FOREST RESOURCES pa SEX SN NE EE / 7 ol: Pine Forest _—. Er Ra CORRE LL D ee - . Eure ‘ ae T N AD ET W PÉÇavi LAID Oran Pin Forest Gulli “@ 74 es Se ue (es 32 ï, : HE o: 1409 a$ Si VE ‘ Broa-leof Forest rende sal SET a SR ‘ GES ue >|: . Re of TEA en U RES SON È RP : ÉGEA Remnonts of Broad-leaf Forest and of Coffee 14 “ CAC. CPE FE 8 fe ‘ Renprrs . Î — t La, $ à Coffee and/or Dense Tree Crops Gonévea or sordég . > QG : Egg ê du , rie TE © Vo £ : [LI Degraded Dry Forest and Shrubs St. Mare <P FR) Das Pe. |. RE] Mangroves u Se. LC ANS Ve : QE. A Lo -. … “a, ot ill RE A LT Average Annual Rainfall in Millimeters CÉ Us. no. be ns SA AN: De. 19 Rivers : aille 4, se a Bee K Er ' g! À bel rs e L QAR Belladér ! —— Secondary Roads ‘ Ti . ù ; Vaud. CDS SE <| : ——-— Tortiary Roads UN, Se ne J ED NET e À U | —— International Boundaries 6 nn: ° SUR, Se 7 jen Fra. : SK a Dane LÉ d: nds <@ > cé » or di / (PT _ TEE ae ù — ! u LÉ | Rai Èe Fey “AuPrinee a | EN "A. £ i … FRS AO) OR DE nr one Ch Ge TS ‘ RASE TES s ns RE 7 iaçue ee ST Logéfocs Carretour ph Ês SO TNES X oi rent PRE US SR NS LAC Te CR Re en CNE TPE SEEN AT 7 Mo SA SG PRESS 4 AD. ! o Port à Piment Es A2 (QUES à HSE De nl Tin TON Pers SA #2 Y Cr Radiis Ur RD SR des Pins <a . - f ; DU CS TR PRES Ke < KDRT mo es RS 6e M . à : » NN x so TR ) à #0 Grand Gant ET lee i w ee 9 19 z 3% 4 5% Ô end LS . » —— — MIIR +7 CMS 0 10 D Carib G ID. 2 | % bean Sea D mg hp eo nt là ‘ s 74 ET nan tael flans Enranten 1e drenaelon sd td 9 S +8: ' 2 . Pin de ep ae pu a Me 7 nie Erpoan an ont oer \ w. 0 \ NOVEMBER 1990