Ayiti, klima ak metyo mansyèl, jen 2026

FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Haiti Monthly Climate and Weather 16 July 2026 Highlights • According to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlooks, El Niño conditions continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, and it will persist with a 97% chance through early spring 2027. • During June 2026, rainfall was exceptionally low across the country. The largest amounts of total rainfall ranged from 25 mm to 50 mm in southern Nord-Est, Nord, Centre, eastern Artibonite departments and localized western Ouest pocket. During this month, Haiti was characterized by below-average conditions. • In June 2026, mean maximum temperatures were above-average in most of Haiti, with values ranging from 1°C to 2°C above the mean. In terms of mean minimum anomalies, the country experienced near-average conditions during June. • The seasonal NMME probabilistic forecast indicate the continuation of below-normal conditions over Haiti during August – October 2026. A higher likelihood (more than 60%) for below-normal conditions is predicted in the Tiburon Peninsula (Grand'Anse, Sud, Nippes, Sud-Est, southern Ouest). • The seasonal NMME probabilistic forecast for the August – October 2026 indicates high probabilities (50% - 70%) for above-normal mean temperatures in northern, western and southern regions. • The SPI analysis for the past 3 months indicated that Haiti experienced wet conditions, although dry conditions started to manifest as moisture deficits across southwestern Haiti in June 2026. The SPI forecast suggests that drier-than-average conditions (SPI values ranging from 0.5 to 2.0 standard deviations below the mean) will continue in most of the country. The FEWS NET Monthly Climate and Weather information bulletin is based on current weather and climate information and monthly and seasonal outlooks from the NOAA CPC. Information on crops, soil moisture, flooding, and evapotranspiration data were produced by FEWS NET, USGS, NASA and USDA. Various sources were used to assess impacts of extreme conditions. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Dr. Wassila Thiaw, Deputy Director, CPC/NOAA, wassila.thiaw@noaa.gov. Questions about the DOS FEWS NET may be directed to Dr. Kiersten Johnson, Program Manager FEWS NET/DOS, johnsonkb2@state.gov. Haiti seasonal calendar. Source: FEWS NET Current Climate Modes and Teleconnections • • • The ENSO outlooks indicates that El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, and it will persist with a 97% chance through early spring 2027 (Fig. 1). Sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded +1.0°C over a large area o across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Convection was enhanced over the central and eastcentral equatorial Pacific and was suppressed over Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Niño. Additionally, the ENSO outlooks indicates that there is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. For the latest update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on ENSO, check here. During June 2026, SSTs were much warmer than average across the subtropical East Pacific. Pacific waters closer to Central America were also above average, with values ranging from 0°C to 2°C. In the Gulf of America, the northern Caribbean Sea and the tropical Atlantic Ocean were warmer with values between 0.5°C and 2.0°C. Figure 1. Official ENSO probabilities for the Niño 3.4 relative SST index (5oN−5oS, 170oW−120oW) minus tropical mean (20oN−20oS). Figure updated 9 July 2026. Source: NOAA/CPC • Implications of ENSO conditions: Based on historical records, during El Niño events, below average precipitation conditions are likely for July to September (JAS) season in 2 most of Haiti (Fig. A1, left panel), while historical El Niño teleconnections indicate above average conditions in eastern and southern portions of Haiti (Fig. A1, right panel). Extreme Events • • • Haiti experienced sudden, highly localized convective storms on the afternoon of June 11, 2026, which triggered rapid flash flooding across metropolitan Port-au-Prince. The neighborhood of Pacot as well as the surrounding urban communes of Delmas and Carrefour were the most severely impacted. (HaitiLibre, 13 June 2026) The agricultural sector did not suffer from riverine floods, but was instead impacted by a rapid transition to El Niño-driven drought conditions and seasonal Saharan dust plumes that suppressed rainfall, triggering mounting soil moisture stress that threatened spring maize and bean crop yields. (European Commission JRC, 15 June 2026; FAO, June 2026) There have been no reports of fire activity in Haiti during June 2026. Rainfall/Precipitation • Climatologically, June is the peak of the second rainy season of Haiti. During this month, rainfall totals range from 100 mm to 200 mm in central Haiti. Moderate values, between 25 mm and 100 mm, are climatologically observed in the northwestern and southern Haiti. Past 3 months (April – June 2026): • Totals: Over the three-month period, the largest rainfall totals ranged from 300 mm to 500 mm across central, eastern, and northern Haiti; this includes the Nord, Nord-Est, and Centre departments, as well as most of the Ouest and eastern Sud-Est departments. In contrast, the entire Tiburon Peninsula (including the Grand'Anse, Sud, Nippes, western Sud-Est, and southwestern Ouest departments), eastern Nord, the Artibonite department, and Gonâve Island received moderate cumulative rainfall ranging from 100 mm to 300 mm. The lowest moisture accumulations were localized along the northern coast of the Nord-Ouest department and northwestern Artibonite, where rainfall totals was between 50 mm to 75 mm (Fig. 2a). • Anomalies: Over the last three months, widespread and significant positive precipitation anomalies dominated most of the northern and southern regions of the country. Specifically, cumulative surpluses of 200 mm to 300 mm were concentrated in the Ouest, Sud-Est and northwestern Nord departments. Conversely, severe negative anomalies were centered over the Artibonite and central Centre department, where deficits ranged from 25 mm to 100 mm. Significant deficits dropping below 100 mm were also observed on the western Gonâve Island, while the far southwestern Nord-Ouest and northwestern Grand'Anse departments registered moderate deficits ranging from 10 mm to 50 mm. Meanwhile, much of the Tiburon Peninsula (the Sud, Nippes, and eastern Grand'Anse departments), southern Centre, northwestern Artibonite, eastern Nord-Ouest departments experienced near-average to moderately wet conditions (10 mm to 100 mm; Fig. 2b). 3 (a) (b) (c) Figure 2. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for April – June 2026: (a) 3-month total accumulation and (b) 3-month anomaly. (c) NMME seasonal rainfall probabilistic forecast for August – October 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Past 1 Month (June 2026): (a) • Totals: During June 2026, total rainfall was exceptionally low across the country. The highest accumulations were concentrated to the eastern half of the country, where the southern Nord-Est, Nord, Centre, eastern Artibonite departments and localized western Ouest pockets received modest totals of 25 mm to 50 mm (peaking at 50 mm to 75 mm in southeastern Artibonite department). Conversely, a very dry region of 2 mm to 10 mm dominated the Tiburon Peninsula (Grand'Anse, Sud, Nippes, Sud-Est, most of the Ouest), Gonâve Island, Nord-Ouest and western Artibonite, northern Nord-Est, and northeastern Nord departments (Fig. 3a). • Anomalies: June was characterized by below-average conditions across Haiti. Severe rainfall deficits of 100 mm to 200 mm were centered in the eastern Haiti, covering southern Nord-Est, southern Nord, most of Centre, eastern Artibonite departments. Moderate to substantial rainfall deficits ranging from 10 mm to 100 mm were registered across the rest of the country (Fig. 3b). (b) (c) Figure 3. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for June 2026: (a) 1-month total accumulation and (b) 1-month anomaly. (c) NMME monthly rainfall probabilistic forecast for August 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP 4 Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (August 2026 and August – October 2026): • Monthly: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models indicate belowaverage conditions in Haiti during August. Moderate to high probabilities (40–70%) for below-normal rainfall are predicted in most of the country. Probabilities for below-normal precipitation exceeds 60% in the eastern, central, and southeastern departments, specifically covering southern Nord-Est, southern Nord, Centre, Ouest, Sud-Est, and eastern Artibonite(Fig. 3c). • Seasonal: The seasonal NMME probabilistic forecast for the August – October 2026 indicates a continuation of below-average condition over Haiti during the season. There is a 40% to 70% likelihood for below-normal rainfall in much of Haiti. Notably, a higher likelihood (more than 60%) for below-normal conditions is predicted in the Tiburon Peninsula (Grand'Anse, Sud, Nippes, Sud-Est, southern Ouest; Fig. 2c). Temperature Past 3 months (April – June 2026): (a) • Maximums: Seasonal maximum temperatures across Haiti ranged from 25°C to 35°C (not shown). Regarding anomalies, positive anomalies, ranging from 1°C to 2°C above the mean, were observed in western Nord-Ouest department, while the rest of the country observed near-average maximum temperature anomalies (Fig. 4a). • Minimums: Seasonal minimum temperatures across Haiti were between 15°C to 25°C, with cooler values observed in southeastern regions of Haiti (not shown). The country observed near-average minimum temperatures during April – June season (Fig. 4b). (b) (c) Figure 4. Spatial structure of temperature for April–June 2026: (a) maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature for August –October 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP 5 Past 1 Month (June 2026): • Maximums: Mean maximum temperatures across Haiti during June ranged from 30°C to 35°C (not shown). Most of the country observed above-average maximum temperatures, with anomalies ranging from 1°C to 2°C above the mean (Fig. 5a). • Minimums: Mean minimum temperatures across Haiti during June ranged from 15°C to 25°C, with the lowest values concentrated in southeastern Centre, southeastern Ouest, and eastern Sud-Est departments (not shown). In terms of anomalies, the country experienced near-average minimum temperatures during June (Fig. 5b). (a) (b) (c) Figure 5. Spatial structure of temperature for June 2026: (a) maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature for August 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (August 2026 and August – October 2026): • Monthly: The NMME forecast for August indicates moderate to high probabilities (40% – 70%) for above-normal mean temperatures in northern, western and southern regions. Notably, a higher likelihood (more than 60%) for below-normal conditions is predicted in the Tiburon Peninsula (Grand'Anse, Sud, Nippes, Sud-Est, southern Ouest departments). Probabilities ranging from 60% to 70% for below-normal mean temperatures exist in central and central-eastern Haiti (Fig. 5c). • Seasonal: The seasonal NMME probabilistic forecast for August – October 2026 indicates high probabilities (50% - 70%) for above-normal mean temperatures in northern, western, and southern regions. The forecast indicates no clear signal for near, above-, or belowaverage temperatures in the central and central-eastern regions (Fig. 4c). Drought and Dryness The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to characterize meteorological drought. SPI compares the precipitation over a specific period of time with the climatology from that same period. Therefore, the SPI values can be thought of as the number of standard deviations the observed anomaly deviates from the climatology. The 1-month SPI values are a good representation of the monthly precipitation anomaly as well as the soil moisture and vegetation health. The 3-month SPI values are a good representation of seasonal precipitation anomalies. 6 The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is similar to the SPI, but it also takes evapotranspiration into account (and therefore the impact of temperatures on water demand). Past 3 Months (April – June 2026): • Dry conditions started to manifest as moisture deficits build up across southwestern Haiti in June 2026. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3) values were between -0.5 and -1.3 standard deviations in Gonâve Island and the far western tip of the Tiburon Peninsula. Conversely, the historical rainfall surpluses from March and April are still keeping the cumulative 3-month SPI values high (wet) across the rest of the country. Notably, moisture surpluses with SPI3 values of 2 or more standard deviations above the mean were observed over the eastern Sud-Est and southeastern Ouest departments (Fig. 6a). Past 1 Month (June 2026): • Due to low rainfall amounts observed during June, SPI analysis for this month indicates that Haiti experienced dry conditions across the entire country. The highest moisture deficits, with SPI values of 1.3 to 2 standard deviations below the mean, were observed in the Nord-Est, northeastern Centre, western and southern Artibonite, southwestern Centre, most of the Ouest, and western Sud-Est departments. The rest of the country observed negative SPI values (SPI values of 0.5 to 1.3 standard deviations below the mean; Fig. 6b). Current/Forecast (10 July 2026 – 8 August 2026): • (a) The SPI forecast suggests that drier-than-average conditions (SPI values ranging from 0.5 to 2.0 standard deviations below the mean) will continue in most of the country. The highest moisture deficits, with SPI values of 1.3 to 2 standard deviations below the mean, were observed in the western Nord-Ouest, northeastern Nord-Est, western Artibonite and Gonâve Island (Fig. 6c). (b) (c) Figure 6: Spatial structure of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for (a) April–June 2026, (b) June 2026, and (c) Spatial structure of SPI constructed from observations for 10 July to 9 July 2026 and forecasted rainfall data from 10 July 2026 to 8 August 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP 7 Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) • USGS/EROS crop WRSI: The last WRSI extended product available for the 3rd Dekad of June 2026 indicates ‘Mediocre’ to ‘Average’ crop conditions for most of Haiti. However, ‘Poor’ crop conditions are indicated in northern Nord-Est, central Artibonite, isolated places in Ouest, localized place in Nippes and Grands-Anse departments. Additionally, northern Nord-Est, southwestern Artibonite, northern Ouest and Gonâve Island showed ‘Failure’’ crop conditions. GEOGLAM Crop Monitor • According to the June 2026 GEOGLAM Global Crop Monitor report, the Maize Primera season and the main rice season are both under watch conditions. Additional Resources - https://protectioncivile.gouv.ht/ - https://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/ Annex Figure A1. ENSO teleconnection for the July – September (JAS) season. El Niño-3.4 composites for precipitation anomaly (mm/day; left panel) and temperature anomaly (°C; right panel), based on MSWEP precipitation and CORe temperature data sets, respectively. Period is 1982-2025. 8