Ayiti, klima ak metyo mansyèl, me 2026

FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Haiti Monthly Climate and Weather 18 June 2026 Highlights • According to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlooks, El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. • During May 2026, the largest amounts of total rainfall ranged from 50 mm to 75 mm in southeastern Artibonite, Centre, and northwestern Ouest departments. During this month, Haiti was characterized by below-average conditions. • In May 2026, mean maximum temperatures were near-average in most of Haiti, except in central and northern parts of the country which observed above-average conditions, with values ranging from 1°C to 2°C above the mean. In terms of mean minimum anomalies, the country experienced near-average conditions during May • The seasonal NMME probabilistic forecast indicate the continuation of below-normal conditions over Haiti during July-September 2026. A higher likelihood (more than 70%) for below-normal conditions is predicted in the southern Grande-Anse, Sud, Nippes, western Sud-Est and southwestern Ouest departments. • The seasonal NMME probabilistic forecast for the July–September 2026 indicates high probabilities (60% to more than 70%) for above-normal mean temperatures in northern, western and southern regions. • The SPI analysis for the past 3 months indicated that Haiti experienced wet conditions across the entire territory. Widespread moisture surpluses with SPI values of 2 or more standard deviations above the mean were observed over the majority of the country. The SPI forecast suggests that wetter-than-average conditions (SPI values ranging from 0.5 to more than 2 standard deviations above the mean) will continue in most of northern, central and southeastern regions of the country. The FEWS NET Monthly Climate and Weather information bulletin is based on current weather and climate information and monthly and seasonal outlooks from the NOAA CPC. Information on crops, soil moisture, flooding, and evapotranspiration data were produced by FEWS NET, USGS, NASA and USDA. Various sources were used to assess impacts of extreme conditions. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Dr. Wassila Thiaw, Deputy Director, CPC/NOAA, wassila.thiaw@noaa.gov. Questions about the DOS FEWS NET may be directed to Dr. Kiersten Johnson, Program Manager FEWS NET/DOS, johnsonkb2@state.gov. Haiti seasonal calendar. Source: FEWS NET Current Climate Modes and Teleconnections • • • The ENSO outlooks indicates that El Niño conditions developed over the past month, and it expected to persist throughout the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (Fig. 1). Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were above-average. Convection was slightly above average over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and was near or below average over Indonesia. The coupled oceanatmosphere system reflected the onset of El Niño conditions. Additionally, the ENSO outlooks indicates that there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November 2026 - January 2027 that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. For the latest update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on ENSO, check here. During May 2026, SSTs were much warmer than average across the subtropical East Pacific, where anomalies ranged from 1.5°C - 3.0°C. Pacific waters closer to Central America were also above average, with values ranging from 0.5°C to 1.5°C. In the Gulf of America, the northern Caribbean Sea and the tropical Atlantic Ocean were warmer with values between 1°C and 2.0°C. Figure 1. Official ENSO probabilities for the Niño 3.4 relative SST index (5oN−5oS, 170oW−120oW) minus tropical mean (20oN−20oS). Figure updated 11 June 2026. Source: NOAA/CPC • Implications of ENSO conditions: Based on historical records, during El Niño events, below average precipitation conditions are likely for June to August (JJA) season in most 2 of Haiti, except in northwestern portions of the country where positive anomalies are expected (Fig. A1, left panel), while historical El Niño teleconnections indicate above average conditions in eastern and southern portions of Haiti (Fig. A1, right panel). Extreme Events • • No major floods were reported in Haiti. There have been no reports of fire activity in Haiti during May 2026. Rainfall/Precipitation • Climatologically, May is the peak of the first rainy season of Haiti. During this month, rainfall totals range from 50 mm to 150 mm in central, southern and eastern Haiti. Lower values, between 10 mm and 50 mm, are climatologically observed in the northwestern Haiti. Past 3 months (March – May 2026): • Totals: Over the last three months, the largest amounts of total rainfall ranged from 500 mm to 750 mm in southern Nord-Est, parts of Nord and Nord-Ouest, Centre, most of Ouest, eastern Nippes, central Sud-Est departments. Elsewhere, Haiti observed rainfall totals of 100 mm to 500 mm (Fig. 2a). • Anomalies: Over the last three months, Haiti observed above-average rainfall conditions. Large rainfall surplus, ranging from 200 mm to more than 500 mm, was observed in eastern Nord-Ouest, Nord, Nod-Est, Centre, southern Artibonite, Ouest, Nippes, Sud, southern Grande-Anse and Sud-Est departments. Rainfall surplus was between 50 mm to 200 mm in the rest of the country (Fig. 2b). 3 (a) (b) (c) Figure 2. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for March – May 2026: (a) 3-month total accumulation and (b) 3-month anomaly. (c) NMME seasonal rainfall probabilistic forecast for July – September 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Past 1 Month (May 2026): • Totals: During May 2026, the largest amounts of total rainfall ranged from 50 mm to 75 mm in southeastern Artibonite, Centre, and northwestern Ouest departments. Elsewhere, rainfall totals were between 5 mm to 25 mm, except in northwestern Grande-Anse which observed rainfall values of 25-50 mm (Fig. 3a). • Anomalies: May was characterized by below-average widespread conditions across Haiti. Higher rainfall deficits, ranging from 50 mm to 100 mm, were registered in Nord-Est, southern Nord, most of Centre, western and northern Ouest, most of Nippes, eastern Grande-Anse, and central and eastern Sud departments. Lower rainfall deficits ranging from 10 mm to 50 mm were registered in the rest of the country (Fig. 3b). (a) (b) (c) Figure 3. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for May 2026: (a) 1-month total accumulation and (b) 1-month anomaly. (c) NMME monthly rainfall probabilistic forecast for July 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (July 2026 and July – September 2026): • Monthly: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models indicate belowaverage conditions in Haiti during July. Moderate to high probabilities (50–70%) for belownormal rainfall are predicted in most of the country, while there is a greater than 70% 4 probability of below-normal rainfall in southern Nord-Ouest, western Nippes, most of Sud departments (Fig. 3c). • Seasonal: The seasonal NMME probabilistic forecast for the July-September 2026 indicates a continuation of below-average condition over Haiti during the season. There is a 50% to 70 % likelihood for below-normal rainfall in much of Haiti. Notably, a higher likelihood (more than 70%) for below-normal conditions is predicted in the southern Grande-Anse, Sud, Nippes, western Sud-Est and southwestern Ouest departments (Fig. 2c). Temperature Past 3 months (March – May 2026): • Maximums: Seasonal maximum temperatures across Haiti ranged from 25°C to 35°C (not shown). The country observed near-average maximum temperatures during MarchMay season (Fig. 4a). • Minimums: Seasonal minimum temperatures across Haiti were between 15°C to 25°C, with cooler values observed in central and southeastern regions of Haiti, while warmer minimums were observed in northern, eastern, and most of the southern region (not shown). Regarding anomalies, negative anomalies, ranging from 1°C to 2°C below the mean, were observed in portions of Artibonite, Centre, Ouest, and Sud-Est departments (Fig. 4b). (b) (a) (c) Figure 4. Spatial structure of temperature for March–May 2026: (a) maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature for July – September 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Past 1 Month (May 2026): • Maximums: Mean maximum temperatures across Haiti during May ranged from 25°C to 35°C (not shown). Central and northern parts of the country observed above-average conditions, with values ranging from 1°C to 2°C above the mean. The rest of the country experienced near-average maximum temperatures (Fig. 5a). 5 • Minimums: Mean minimum temperatures across Haiti during May ranged from 15°C to 25°C, with the lowest values concentrated in southeastern Centre, most of Ouest, and central and eastern Sud-Est departments (not shown). In terms of anomalies, the country experienced near-average minimum temperatures during May (Fig. 5b). (a) (b) (c) Figure 5. Spatial structure of temperature for May 2026: (a) maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature for July 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (July 2026 and July – September 2026): • Monthly: The NMME forecast for May indicates moderate to high probabilities (60% – 70%) for above-normal mean temperatures in northern, western and most of the southern regions. Lower probabilities ranging from 50% to 60% for below-normal mean temperatures exist in southeastern Haiti. On the contrary, the forecast suggests greater than 50% likelihood of below-normal temperatures for central and central-eastern regions of Haiti (Fig. 5c). • Seasonal: The seasonal NMME probabilistic forecast for the July–September 2026 indicates high probabilities (60% to more than 70%) for above-normal mean temperatures in northern, western and southern regions. The forecast indicates no clear signal for near, above-, or below-average temperatures in the central and central-eastern regions (Fig. 4c). Drought and Dryness The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to characterize meteorological drought. SPI compares the precipitation over a specific period of time with the climatology from that same period. Therefore, the SPI values can be thought of as the number of standard deviations the observed anomaly deviates from the climatology. The 1-month SPI values are a good representation of the monthly precipitation anomaly as well as the soil moisture and vegetation health. The 3-month SPI values are a good representation of seasonal precipitation anomalies. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is similar to the SPI, but it also 6 takes evapotranspiration into account (and therefore the impact of temperatures on water demand). Past 3 Months (March – May 2026): • Due to heavy rainfall during the past 3 months, SPI values continue to show exceptionally wet conditions across the entire territory. Widespread moisture surpluses with SPI values of 2 or more standard deviations above the mean were observed over the majority of the country, except for western Nord-Ouest, northwestern Ouest, and northern Grande-Anse which observed SPI values of 0.8 to 1.6 standard deviations above the mean (Fig. 6a). Past 1 Month (May 2026): • On the contrary, due to the low rainfall amounts observed during May, SPI analysis for this month indicates that Haiti experienced dry conditions across the entire country. The highest moisture deficits, with SPI values of -1.3 to more than -2 standard deviations below the mean, were observed in the Nord, Nord-Est, northeastern Centre, and eastern portions of Ouest departments. The rest of the country observed negative SPI values (SPI values of -0.5 to -1.3 standard deviations above the mean) (Fig. 6b). Current/Forecast (10 April 2026 – 8 July 2026): • (a) The SPI forecast suggests that wetter-than-average conditions (SPI values ranging from 0.5 to more than 2 standard deviations above the mean) will continue in most of northern, central and southeastern regions of the country. The rest of Haiti is expected to observe near-average conditions, except for northern Grande-Anse where drier than average conditions could develop (SPI values ranging from -0.5 to -0.8 standard deviations below the mean) (Fig. 6c). (b) (c) Figure 6: Spatial structure of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for (a) March–May 2026, (b) May 2026, and (c) Spatial structure of SPI constructed from observations for 10 April to 10 June 2026 and forecasted rainfall data from 11 June 2026 to 8 July 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP 7 Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) • USGS/EROS crop WRSI: The last WRSI extended product available for the 3rd Dekad of May 2026 indicates ‘Average’ to ‘Good’ crop conditions for most of Haiti. However, ‘Poor’ to ‘Mediocre’’ crop conditions are indicated in northern Nord-Est, southern Artibonite, most of Nippes, eastern Sud, and northern Ouest departments. Additionally, there are localized areas in Nord-Ouest and Ouest departments that shown ‘Failure’’ crop conditions. GEOGLAM Crop Monitor • According to the May 2026 GEOGLAM Global Crop Monitor report, the Maize Printemps season and the main rice season are both under favorable conditions. Additional Resources - https://protectioncivile.gouv.ht/ - https://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/ Annex Figure A1. ENSO teleconnection for the July – August (JJA) season. El Niño-3.4 composites for precipitation anomaly (mm/day; left panel) and temperature anomaly (°C; right panel), based on MSWEP precipitation and CORe temperature data sets, respectively. Period is 1982-2025. 8