Ayiti, klima ak metyo mansyèl, fevriye 2026

FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Haiti Monthly Climate and Weather 19 March 2026 Highlights • La Niña conditions continued in February 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisting in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. • According to the NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, a transition from La Niña to ENSOneutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026. Historically, La Niña is associated with wetter than average conditions in most of Haiti. • During February, rainfall in Haiti typically ranges from 10 mm to 25 mm in northwestern, central, southeastern and southwestern regions, while slightly higher values from 25 mm to 75 mm are seen in western Ouest departments, coastal areas of the southern peninsula and northern coastal regions, specifically near Tortuga Island. During the past month, low to moderate rainfall was observed in Haiti. The largest monthly totals ranging from 150 mm to 200 mm were recorded in the northern coastal regions, specifically near Tortuga Island. Overall, Haiti experienced mixed rainfall anomalies. While northern coastal areas and Tortuga Island saw significant surpluses of 100–300 mm, and the northwestern and southwestern peninsulas observed moderate surplus of 10–50 mm, the central and eastern regions faced notable dryness. • • For April 2026, the NMME probabilistic forecast indicates localized probabilities for abovenormal rainfall across central-western and southern Haiti. Specifically, there is a 36–40% chance of above-normal precipitation in western Artibonite, northwestern Ouest, and the Gonâve Islands. A slightly higher probability (40–50%) for above-normal conditions exists in eastern Sud, Nippes, western Sud-Est, and southwestern Ouest. • The SPI forecast ending on March 28, 2026, anticipates wetter-than-average conditions in most of the country. In contrast, localized areas in western Ouest department, including eastern Gonâve Island may experience drier than average conditions. The FEWS NET Monthly Climate and Weather information bulletin is based on current weather and climate information and monthly and seasonal outlooks from the NOAA CPC. Information on crops, soil moisture, flooding, and evapotranspiration data were produced by FEWS NET, USGS, NASA and USDA. Various sources were used to assess impacts of extreme conditions. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Dr. Wassila Thiaw, Deputy Director, CPC/NOAA, wassila.thiaw@noaa.gov. Questions about the DOS FEWS NET may be directed to Dr. Kiersten Johnson, Program Manager FEWS NET/DOS, johnsonkb2@state.gov. Haiti seasonal calendar. Source: FEWS NET Current Climate Modes and Teleconnections • During February 2026, below-average SSTs were observed in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean and in the Eastern Tropical Pacific region adjacent to Central America. • The ENSO outlooks show La Niña conditions are favored to persist during the February 2026, with a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026 (Fig. 1). For the latest update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on ENSO, check here. • During the last month, SSTs were warmer than average across the Gulf of America, the Caribbean, and the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The largest anomalies ranged from 1.5°C to more than 2.5°C in most of the western and northern Gulf of America and in portions of the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The Caribbean Sea observed anomalies of 0.5–1.5°C above average. Figure 1. Official ENSO probabilities for the Niño 3.4 SST index (5oN−5oS, 120oW−170oW). Figure updated 12 February 2026. Source: NOAA/CPC 2 Extreme Events • Local media news reported a severe flood in Cap-Haïtien during early February, which disrupted terrestrial and aerial transportation. Additionally, the Haitian Times reported that victims of the Hurricane Melissa in Haiti’s Petit-Goâve community still remain homeless or living in unsafe conditions. • There have been no reports of fire activity in Haiti during February 2026. Rainfall/Precipitation • Climatologically, February is the third month of the dry season in Haiti. During February, rainfall typically ranges from 10 mm to 25 mm in northwestern, central, southeastern and southwestern Haiti, while slightly higher values from 25 mm to 75 mm are seen in western regions Ouest departments and coastal areas of the southern peninsula. Past 3 months (December 2025 – February 2026): • Totals: Over the pastthree months, the largest amounts of total rainfall ranged from 200 mm to 500 mm is observed in southwestern Haiti, Gonâve Island, central-south Haiti, and northwestern Haiti. Elsewhere, most of Haiti observed rainfall totals of 50 mm to 200 mm, with the exception of the southern Nord, southern Nord-Est and northern Centre departments that received lower amounts of rainfall ranging from 25 mm to 50 mm (Fig. 2a). • Anomalies: During the past three months, most of Haiti observed above average rainfall conditions. The highest rainfall surplus ranging from 100 mm to 300 mm was observed in northwestern, southwestern, north-central and south-central Haiti. Other regions registered positive anomalies of 10-100 mm including Artibonite, northwestern Nord and northern NordEst departments as well as portions of southwestern and southeastern Haiti. On the contrary, deficits were noted in most of eastern Haiti, southern parts of Nord-Est, Centre, parts of Ouest, and western Sud-Est departments, which registered below average amounts from 10 mm to 100 mm. The most dryness occurred on western Gonâve Island, which registered a substantial deficit ranging from 100 mm to 200 mm (Fig. 2b). (a) (b) (c) Figure 2. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for December 2025 – February 2026: (a) 3-month total accumulation and (b) 3-month anomaly. (c) NMME seasonal rainfall probabilistic forecast for April 2026 – June 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP 3 Past 1 Month (February 2026): • Totals: During February, total rainfall in Haiti showed spatial variability across the country. The highest monthly totals, ranging from 150 mm to over 200 mm were recorded in the northern coastal regions, specifically near Tortuga Island. Moderate rainfall accumulations between 50 mm and 100 mm were observed in the portions of the NordOuest department, western peninsula (Sud and Grand'Anse) and western Gonâve Island. In contrast, the central and eastern regions experienced much drier conditions. The Artibonite, Centre, and Ouest departments, as well as eastern Sud-Est, received comparatively lower amounts of rainfall, with totals generally ranging from 2 mm to 25 mm. While February is climatologically a dry month, the elevated totals in the north were driven by localized extreme events (Fig. 3a). • Anomalies: Haiti observed mixed conditions during last month, with significant spatial variations in rainfall performance. The highest rainfall surplus, ranging from 100 mm to 300 mm, was registered in northern coastal areas and Tortuga Island. Above-average conditions, ranging from 10 mm to 50 mm, were also observed in portions of the northwestern and southwestern peninsulas. On the contrary, deficits were noted in central and eastern Haiti. Centre, southern Artibonite, Ouest, Nippes, most parts of Sud-Est and eastern Sud departments registered below-average amounts ranging from 10 mm to 100 mm. Pronounced deficits between 100 mm and 200 mm were concentrated in eastern Gonâve Island and adjacent coastal areas of the Ouest department (Fig. 3b). (a) (b) (c) Figure 3. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for February 2026: (a) 1-month total accumulation and (b) 1-month anomaly. (c) NMME monthly rainfall probabilistic forecast for April 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (April 2026 and April – June 2026): • Monthly: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models indicate low probabilities (36–40%) for above-normal rainfall in western Artibonite, northwestern Ouest departments and Gonâve Islands. Similar probabilities for above-normal conditions (4050%) exist in eastern Sud, Nippes, western Sud-Est and southwestern Ouest departments (Fig. 3c). 4 • Seasonal: The NMME seasonal forecast for April – June 2026 indicates no dominant category for Haiti (Fig. 2c). Temperature Past 3 months (December 2025 – February 2026): • Maximums: Seasonal maximum temperatures across Haiti ranged from 25°C to 35°C (not shown). Above-average anomalies were registered in northwestern and southwestern Haiti, while the rest of the country observed near-average anomalies (Fig. 4a). • Minimums: Temperatures of 20°C to 25°C were recorded in western Nord-Ouest, parts of western Artibonite, northern Nord-Est, eastern Grand-Anse, central Sud and western Nippes departments of Haiti. Cooler temperatures of 15°C to 20°C were observed in most of central and southern regions of Haiti (not shown). In terms of anomalies, near average minimum temperature anomalies dominated Haiti (Fig. 4b). (b) (a) (c) Figure 4. Spatial structure of temperature for December 2025 – February 2026: (a) maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature for April – June 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Past 1 Month (February 2026): • Maximums: Much of Haiti experienced maximum temperatures ranging from 25°C to 30°C, except for areas in northeastern Nord-Est departments which observed slightly higher temperatures of 30–35°C (not shown). Haiti experienced near-average temperature anomalies throughout the month of February (Fig. 5a). 5 • Minimums: Most of Haiti observed minimum temperatures ranging from 15°C to 20°C. Slightly warmer conditions were registered in northwestern, central-western, and northeastern Haiti where minimum temperatures ranged between 20°C and 25°C. Cooler minimums, between 10°C and 15°C in southern Ouest and eastern Sud-Est departments (not shown). Mean minimum temperature anomalies remain near-average across the country (Fig. 5b). (a) (b) (c) Figure 5. Spatial structure of temperature for February 2026: (a) maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature for April 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (April 2026 and April – June 2026): • Monthly: The NMME forecast for April indicates an increased likelihood (over 70%) of above-normal temperatures in northern Haiti. A moderate likelihood, ranging from 50% to 70%, for above-normal temperatures is also predicted for the central-western and southern regions of the country. There is no clear signal for near-, above-, or belowaverage temperatures in the central-eastern regions (Fig. 5c). • Seasonal: Similarly, the seasonal forecast for April – June 2026 shows that there is an increased likelihood (over 60%) of above-normal temperatures in northern, western, and southern regions of Haiti. The forecast indicates no clear signal for near, above-, or belowaverage temperatures in the central-eastern regions (Fig. 4c). Drought and Dryness The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to characterize meteorological drought. SPI compares the precipitation over a specific period of time with the climatology from that same period. Therefore, the SPI values can be thought of as the number of standard deviations the observed anomaly deviates from the climatology. The 1-month SPI values are a good representation of the monthly precipitation anomaly as well as the soil moisture and vegetation health. The 3-month SPI values are a good representation of seasonal precipitation anomalies. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is similar to the SPI, but it also takes evapotranspiration into account (and therefore the impact of temperatures on water demand). 6 Past 3 Months (December 2025 – February 2026): • The SPI analysis for the past 3 months indicated that Haiti experienced wetter than average conditions (SPI values of 0.5 to 2 standard deviations above the mean) across northern, central-western and most of southern regions. Drier than average conditions (SPI values of 1.3 to 1.6 standard deviations below the mean) were confined to some areas in western Ouest department, including Gonâve Island (Fig. 6a). Past 1 Month (February 2026): • During February, the SPI analysis shows wetter than average conditions (SPI values of 0.8 to more than 2 standard deviations above the mean) in northern, southwestern and southeastern regions. Larger positive SPI values (larger than 2 standard deviations above the mean) were registered in northeastern Haiti. Conversely, parts of Ouest department, including Gonâve Island, southern Artibonite and southern Center departments experienced drier than average conditions (SPI values of 0.8 to 1.6 standard deviations below the mean) (Fig. 6b). Current/Forecast (01 January 2026 – 28 March 2026): • (a) The SPI forecast suggests that wetter-than-average conditions (SPI values ranging from 0.5 to 2 standard deviations above the mean) will continue in most of the country. Larger positive SPI values (larger than 2.0 standard deviations above the mean) are expected in northwestern, southwestern, and southeastern parts of the country. In contrast, localized areas in western Ouest department, including eastern Gonâve Island experienced drier than average conditions (SPI values of 0.8 to 1.3 standard deviations below the mean) (Fig. 6c). (b) (c) Figure 6: Spatial structure of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for (a) December 2025 – February 2026, (b) February 2026, and (c) Spatial structure of SPI constructed from observations for 01 January to 28 February 2026 and 4 weeks forecast ending on 28 March 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP 7 Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) • USGS/EROS crop WRSI: The last product available for the 3rd Dekad of December 2025 indicates ‘Average’ to ‘Very Good’ crop conditions in Haiti. GEOGLAM Crop Monitor • According to the February 2026 GEOGLAM Global Crop Monitor report, the secondseason rice and maize is under watch conditions. Additional Resources - https://protectioncivile.gouv.ht/ - https://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/ Annex Figure A1. ENSO teleconnection for the March – May (MMA) season. The upper-level panel shows the precipitation and temperature anomalies regressed onto the standardized Niño-3.4 index. The bottom panel shows the correlation between Nino-3.4 and the anomalies. Source : https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/regressions/ 8