Ayiti, klima ak metyo mansyèl, janvye 2026

FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Haiti Monthly Climate and Weather 19 February 2026 Highlights • La Niña conditions continued in January 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. • According to the NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, La Niña conditions are favored to persist during the January-February-March season, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in February-April 2026. Historically, La Niña is associated with wetter than average conditions in most of Haiti. • During January, rainfall typically ranged from 25 mm to 50 mm in central and central-south areas of Haiti, while slightly lower values from 10 mm to 25 mm were observed in northern, southwestern, and southeastern regions. • During the past month, moderate to heavy rainfall was observed in Haiti during January. The largest monthly totals between 100 mm to 500 mm were registered in northern and southern regions. In terms of anomalies, the country observed wetter than average conditions during last month. The highest surplus rainfall, ranging from 100 mm to 500 mm, was registered in northern, southwestern and central-south Haiti. • For March 2026, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models indicate low probabilities (36 – 40%) for above-normal rainfall in northwestern and southwestern Haiti. Similarly, probabilities of 36 – 40% for near-normal conditions exist in southeastern Ouest and eastern Sud-Est departments. Additionally, the NMME seasonal forecast for March – May 2026 indicates no dominant category for Haiti. • The SPI forecast ending on February 28, 2026, anticipates wetter-than-average conditions in most of the country. Additionally, SPI forecast indicates near-average conditions in central-eastern of Haiti and parts of northern Ouest department. The FEWS NET Monthly Climate and Weather information bulletin is based on current weather and climate information and monthly and seasonal outlooks from the NOAA CPC. Information on crops, soil moisture, flooding, and evapotranspiration data were produced by FEWS NET, USGS, NASA and USDA. Various sources were used to assess impacts of extreme conditions. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Dr. Wassila Thiaw, Deputy Director, CPC/NOAA, wassila.thiaw@noaa.gov. Questions about the DOS FEWS NET may be directed to Dr. Kiersten Johnson, Program Manager FEWS NET/DOS, johnsonkb2@state.gov. Haiti seasonal calendar. Source: FEWS NET Current Climate Modes and Teleconnections • During January 2026, below-average SSTs were observed in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean and in the Eastern Tropical Pacific region adjacent to Central America. • The ENSO outlooks show La Niña conditions are favored to persist during the JanuaryFebruary-March season, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in February-April 2026 (60% chance). Afterwards, ENSO-neutral is expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026; Fig. 1). For the latest update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on ENSO, check here. • During the last month, SSTs were warmer than average across the Gulf of America, the Caribbean, and the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The largest anomalies ranged from 1.5°C to more than 2.5°C in most of the western and northern Gulf of America and in portions of the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The Caribbean Sea observed anomalies of 0.5–1.5 °C above average. Figure 1. Official ENSO probabilities for the Niño 3.4 SST index (5oN−5oS, 120oW−170oW). Figure updated 12 February 2026. Source: NOAA/CPC 2 • Implications of ENSO conditions: Based on historical records, above average conditions are likely for February to April (FMA) season in most of Haiti (Fig. A1, left panels), while La Niña conditions are related to below average mean temperatures in Haiti (Fig. A1, right panels). The ENSO-precipitation teleconnection pattern can be found here, and the pattern for temperature can be found here. Extreme Events • Local media news reported a severe flood in Cap-Haïtien, which disrupted terrestrial and aerial transportation. Additionally, the Haitian Times reported that victims of the Hurricane Melissa in Haiti’s Petit-Goâve community still remain homeless or living in unsafe conditions. • There have been no reports of fire activity in Haiti during January 2026. Rainfall/Precipitation • Climatologically, January is the second month of the dry season in Haiti. During January, rainfall typically ranges from 25 mm to 50 mm in central and south-centra Haiti, while slightly lower values from 10 mm to 25 mm are seen in northern, southwestern and southeastern regions. Past 3 months (November 2025 – January 2026): • Totals: Over the last three months, the largest amounts of total rainfall ranged from 200 mm to 500 mm in southwestern Haiti, Gonâve Island, central-south Haiti, and northwestern Haiti. Elsewhere, most of Haiti observed rainfall totals of 50 mm to 200 mm, with the exception of the southern Nord and southern Nord-Est departments that received lower amounts of rainfall ranging from 25 mm to 50 mm (Fig. 2a). • Anomalies: During the last three months, most of Haiti observed above average conditions. The highest rainfall surplus ranging from 100 mm to 300 mm was observed in northwestern, southwestern, and south-central Haiti. Other regions registered positive anomalies of 10-100 mm including parts of Artibonite, northern Nord and northern Nord-Est departments as well as portions of southwestern and southeastern Haiti. On the contrary, deficits were noted in most of eastern Haiti, parts of Ouest, and western Sud-Est departments, which registered below average amounts from 10 mm to 100 mm (Fig. 2b). 3 (a) (b) (c) Figure 2. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for November 2025 – January 2026: (a) 3-month total accumulation and (b) 3-month anomaly. (c) NMME seasonal rainfall probabilistic forecast for March 2026 – May 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Past 1 Month (January 2026): • Totals: Moderate to heavy rainfall was observed in Haiti during January. The largest monthly totals between 100 mm to 500 mm were registered in northern and southern regions. The rest of the country observed rainfall totals of 25–100 mm, except southern Nord and southern Nor-Est departments which received values lower than 25 mm (Fig. 3a). • Anomalies: The country observed wetter than average conditions during last month. The highest rainfall surplus, ranging from 100 mm to 500 mm, was registered in northern, southwestern and central-south Haiti. Elsewhere, above-average conditions, ranging from 10 mm to 100 mm, were observed in most of Haiti (Fig. 3b). (a) (b) (c) Figure 3. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for January 2026: (a) 1-month total accumulation and (b) 1-month anomaly. (c) NMME monthly rainfall probabilistic forecast for March 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP 4 Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (February 2026 and February – April 2026): • Monthly: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models indicate low probabilities (36–40%) for above-normal rainfall in northwestern Artibonite, Nord-Ouest, western Nord-Est, southern Grande'Anse, western Nippes and western and central Sud departments. Similar probabilities exist for near-normal conditions in southeastern Ouest and eastern Sud-Est departments. For the rest of the country, no dominant category is predicted (Fig. 3c). • Seasonal: The NMME seasonal forecast for March – May 2026 indicates no dominant category for Haiti (Fig. 2c). Temperature Past 3 months (November 2025 – January 2026): • Maximums: Seasonal maximum temperatures across Haiti ranged from 25°C to 35°C (not shown). Above-average anomalies were registered in northwestern and southwestern Haiti, while the rest of the country observed near-average anomalies (Fig. 4a). • Minimums: Temperatures of 20°C to 25°C were recorded in northern, central-west and southwestern Haiti. Cooler temperatures of 15°C to 20°C were observed in most of central and southwestern regions of Haiti (not show). In terms of anomalies, near average minimum temperature anomalies dominated Haiti (Fig. 4b). (b) (a) (c) Figure 4. Spatial structure of temperature for November 2025 – January 2026: (a) maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature for March – May 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Past 1 Month (January 2026): • Maximums: Much of Haiti experienced maximum temperatures ranging from 25°C to 30°C, except for areas in western-central Artibonite and northern Nord-Est departments which observed slightly higher temperatures of 30–35 °C (not shown). The northwestern 5 and southwestern Haiti recorded slightly above-average anomalies between 1°C and 2°C, while the rest of Haiti observed near-average temperature anomalies (Fig. 5a). • Minimums: Most of Haiti observed minimum temperatures ranging from 15°C to 20°C. Slightly warmer conditions were registered in northwestern, central-western, and northeastern Haiti where minimum temperatures ranged between 20°C and 25°C. Cooler minimums, between 10 °C and 15 °C in southern Ouest and eastern Sud-Est departments (not shown). Mean minimum temperature anomalies remain near-average across the country (Fig. 5b). (a) (b) (c) Figure 5. Spatial structure of temperature for January 2026: (a) maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature for March 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (February 2026 and February – April 2026): • Monthly: The NMME forecast for March indicates an increased likelihood (over 70%) of above-normal temperatures in northern, western, and southern Haiti. There is no clear signal for near-, above-, or below-average temperatures in the central-east regions (Fig. 5c). • Seasonal: Similarly, the seasonal forecast for March – May 2026 shows that there is an increased likelihood (over 60%) of above-normal temperatures in northern, western, and southern regions of Haiti. The forecast indicates no clear signal for near, above-, or belowaverage temperatures in the rest of the country (Fig. 4c). Drought and Dryness The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to characterize meteorological drought. SPI compares the precipitation over a specific period of time with the climatology from that same period. Therefore, the SPI values can be thought of as the number of standard deviations the observed anomaly deviates from the climatology. The 1-month SPI values are a good representation of the monthly precipitation anomaly as well as the soil moisture and vegetation health. The 3-month SPI values are a good representation of seasonal precipitation anomalies. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is similar to the SPI, but it also 6 takes evapotranspiration into account (and therefore the impact of temperatures on water demand). Past 3 Months (November 2025 – January 2026): • The SPI analysis for the past 3 months indicated that Haiti experienced wetter than average conditions (SPI values of 0.5 to 2 standard deviations above the mean) across northern and most of southern regions. Drier than average conditions (SPI values of 0.5 to 1.3 standard deviations below the mean) were confined to some areas in western Ouest department, including Gonâve Island (Fig. 6a). Past 1 Month (January 2026): • During January, the SPI analysis shows wetter than average conditions (SPI values of 0.8 to more than 2 standard deviations above the mean) in most of Haiti, except in localized areas in western Ouest department, including eastern Gonâve Island. Larger positive SPI values (larger than 2 standard deviations above the mean) were registered in northwestern, northeastern, southwestern, and southeastern Haiti (Fig. 6b). Current/Forecast (01 December 2025 – 28 February 2026): • (a) • The SPI forecast suggests that wetter-than-average conditions (SPI values ranging from 0.5 to 2 standard deviations above the mean) will continue in most of the country. Larger positive SPI values (larger than 1.6 standard deviations above the mean) are expected in northern, southwestern, and southeastern parts of the country. Near-average conditions are indicated in central parts of the country. (Fig. 6c). (b) (c) Figure 6: Spatial structure of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for (a) November 2025 – January 2026, (b) January 2026, and (c) Spatial structure of SPI constructed from observations for 01 December 2025 to 31 January 2026 and 4 weeks forecast ending on 28 February 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP 7 Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) • USGS/EROS crop WRSI: The last product available for the 3rd Dekad of December 2025 indicates ‘Average’ to ‘Very Good’ crop conditions in Haiti. GEOGLAM Crop Monitor • According to the January 2026 GEOGLAM Global Crop Monitor report, the second-season rice is under favorable conditions. Additional Resources - https://protectioncivile.gouv.ht/ - https://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/ 8 Annex Figure A1. ENSO teleconnection for the February – April (FMA) season. The upper-level panel shows the precipitation and temperature anomalies regressed onto the standardized Niño-3.4 index. The bottom panel shows the correlation between Nino-3.4 and the anomalies. Source : https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/regressions/ 9