Ayiti, klima ak metyo mansyèl, desanm 2025

FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Haiti Monthly Climate and Weather 15 January 2026 Highlights • La Niña conditions was reflected in the continuation of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean in December 2025. • According to the NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, La Niña persists, followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least Northern Hemisphere late spring 2026. Historically, El Niño is associated with drier than average conditions and La Niña with wetter than average conditions in Haiti. • During December 2025, climatological rainfall in Haiti typically decreases as the country enters the dry season, and generally ranges from 10 mm to 75 mm. • During the past month, areas of Nord-Ouest, parts of Sud, and northwestern Grand'Anse observed rainfall values between 25 mm to 50 mm. The rest of Haiti received values lower than 25 mm. In terms of anomalies, drier than average conditions were observed in eastern and southern Haiti, while slightly above average conditions were registered in areas of Nord-Ouest and Artibonite. • The NMME monthly forecast indicates low probabilities (36-40%) for above-average rainfall in western Artibonite, Nord-Ouest departments. In northwestern Grand'Anse, the probability of above-average rainfall exceeds 40%. Additionally, the seasonal forecast for February – April 2026 suggests enhanced probabilities (>40%) for above-average rainfall across Haiti, except in the Nord-Ouest department where low (36% to 40%) probabilities for above-average rainfall are indicated. • The SPI forecast ending on January 28, 2025, anticipates above-average conditions in northwestern parts of Haiti, while predicting the continuation of below-average conditions in most of central, southeastern, and eastern departments of Haiti. The FEWS NET Monthly Climate and Weather information bulletin is based on current weather and climate information and monthly and seasonal outlooks from the NOAA CPC. Information on crops, soil moisture, flooding, and evapotranspiration data were produced by FEWS NET, USGS, NASA and USDA. Various sources were used to assess impacts of extreme conditions. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Dr. Wassila Thiaw, Deputy Director, CPC/NOAA, wassila.thiaw@noaa.gov. Questions about the DOS FEWS NET may be directed to Dr. Kiersten Johnson, Program Manager FEWS NET/DOS, johnsonkb2@state.gov. Haiti seasonal calendar. Source: FEWS NET Current Climate Modes and Teleconnections • During December 2025, below-average SSTs were observed across the eastern and eastcentral Pacific Ocean. • The ENSO outlooks predict La Niña conditions are favored to persist for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (75% chance; Fig. 1). For the latest update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on ENSO, check here. • During the last month, SSTs were warmer than average in much of the Gulf of America and the Caribbean. Anomalies ranged from 0.5°C to 2.0°C, with the largest departures in the western and central Gulf of America. Also, SST was warmer than average across the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. Figure 1. Official ENSO probabilities for the Niño 3.4 SST index (5oN−5oS, 120oW−170oW). Figure updated 8 January 2026. Source: NOAA/CPC 2 • Implications of ENSO conditions: From January to March, Haiti usually experiences a dry season. Based on historical records, near-average conditions are likely in Haiti for December to March season (Fig. A1, left panels), while La Niña conditions are related to below average mean temperatures in Haiti (Fig. A1, right panels). The ENSOprecipitation teleconnection pattern can be found here, and the pattern for temperature can be found here. Extreme Events • There have been no reports of extreme rainfall events in Haiti. However, communities were still recovering from the devastating impacts from hurricane Melissa which hit Haiti at the end of October, 2025. • There have been no reports of fire activity in Haiti during December 2025. Rainfall/Precipitation • December marks the beginning of the dry season in Haiti. Climatological rainfall typically decreases significantly, and generally ranges from 10 mm to 50 mm across the country. Past 3 months (October – December 2025): • Totals: Over the last three months, the largest amounts of total rainfall ranged from 300 mm to more than 750 mm in southwestern Haiti and Gonâve Island. The western and central departments observed rainfall totals of 100 mm to 300 mm, while northeastern and southeastern regions received comparatively lower amounts of rainfall, ranging from 50 mm to 100 mm. The seasonal totals were mainly due to the heavy rainfall brought by Hurricane Melissa during the last days of October, particularly affecting areas of southwestern Haiti and Gonâve Island which experienced the highest total rainfall. • Anomalies: During the last three months, northeastern and most of the central Haiti’s departments observed below average conditions. Southwestern Haiti registered the highest surplus rainfall ranging from 200 mm to 500 mm. On the contrary, deficits continued in Centre department, and in most of the central, southeastern, and eastern areas of Haiti, registering below average amounts from 25 mm to 200 mm. Past 1 Month (December 2025): • Totals: During the past month, areas of Nord-Ouest, parts of Sud, and northwestern Grand'Anse observed rainfall values between 25 mm to 50 mm. The rest of Haiti received values lower than 25 mm (Fig. 2a). • Anomalies: During December, drier than average conditions were observed in eastern and southern Haiti. Slightly above-average conditions were registered in areas of NordOuest and Artibonite. Near average conditions were observed in most of western Haiti (Fig. 2b). 3 (a) (b) (c) Figure 2. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for November 2025: (a) 1-month total accumulation and (b) 1-month anomaly. (c) NMME seasonal rainfall probabilistic forecast for January – March 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (February 2026 and February – April 2026): • Monthly: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models indicate low probabilities (36-40%) for above-average rainfall in western Artibonite, Nord-Ouest departments. In northwestern Grand'Anse, the probability of above-average rainfall exceeds 40%. For the rest of the country, no dominant category is predicted. • Seasonal: The NMME seasonal forecast for February – April 2026 indicates enhanced probabilities (>40%) for above-average rainfall across Haiti, except in the Nord-Ouest department where low probabilities (36% to 40%) for above-average rainfall are indicated (Fig. 2c). Temperature Past 3 months (October – December 2025): • Maximums: Seasonal maximum temperatures across Haiti ranged from 25°C to 35°C. Near-average anomalies were observed across Haiti during the season. • Minimums: Temperatures of 20°C to 25°C were recorded in northern, central and southwestern Haiti. Cooler temperatures of 15°C to 20°C were observed in southeastern Haiti. In terms of anomalies, near average minimum temperature anomalies prevailed in Haiti. Past 1 Month (December 2025): • Maximums: Haiti experienced maximum temperatures ranging from 25°C to 35°C. The southeastern parts of Haiti experienced near-average temperature anomalies, while the rest of Haiti observed slightly above-average anomalies between 1°C and 2°C. (Fig. 3a). 4 • Minimums: Minimum temperatures across northern, central-western, and southwestern Haiti ranged between 20°C and 25°C. Cooler minimums, ranging from 15°C to 20°C were observed in central, central-eastern, and southeastern departments of Haiti (Fig. 3b). Mean minimum temperature anomalies remained near-average across most of the country (not shown). (a) (b) (c) Figure 3. Spatial structure of temperature for December 2025. (a) Maximum temperature anomaly and (b) Average minimum temperature. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2m temperature for February – April 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (February 2026 and February – April 2026): • Monthly: The NMME forecast for February indicates an increased likelihood (over 70%) of above-average temperatures in northern, western, and southern Haiti. There is no clear signal for near-, above-, or below-average temperatures in the central-east regions. • Seasonal: Similarly, the seasonal forecast for February – April 2026 shows that there is an increased likelihood (over 60%) of above-average temperatures in northern, western, and southern regions of Haiti. The forecast indicates no clear signal for near, above-, or below-average temperatures in the central-east regions of the country (Fig. 3c). Drought and Dryness The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to characterize meteorological drought. SPI compares the precipitation over a specific period of time with the climatology from that same period. Therefore, the SPI values can be thought of as the number of standard deviations the observed anomaly deviates from the climatology. The 1-month SPI values are a good representation of the monthly precipitation anomaly as well as the soil moisture and vegetation health. The 3-month SPI values are a good representation of seasonal precipitation anomalies. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is similar to the SPI, but it also takes evapotranspiration into account (and therefore the impact of temperatures on water demand). Past 3 Months (October – December 2025): • The SPI analysis for the past 3 months indicated that Haiti experienced drier than average conditions (SPI values of 0.8 to 1.6 standard deviations below the mean) over the central 5 and eastern regions (Fig. 4a). The northwestern and most of southern areas of Haiti continued to experience wetter than average conditions (SPI values of 0.5 to 2 standard deviations above the mean). Past 1 Month (December 2025): • The SPI analysis for December indicated that drier than average conditions (SPI values of 0.5 to 1.6 standard deviations below the mean) dominated in most Haiti (Fig. 4b). On the contrary, wetter than average conditions (SPI values of 0.5 to 0.8 standard deviations above the mean) were registered in eastern Nord-Ouest, western Nord, and northern Artibonite departments. Near-average SPI conditions were observed in western NordOuest, eastern Nord, northern Nord-Est, western Grand'Anse, and western Sud departments. Current/Forecast (31 October 2025 – 28 January 2026): • (a) The SPI forecast suggests that drier than average conditions (SPI values of 0.5 to 1.6 standard deviations below the mean) will continue over most of central, southeastern, and eastern departments of Haiti. On the contrary, SPI forecast indicates wetter-than-average conditions (SPI values ranging from 0.5 to 0.8 standard deviations above the mean) in northwestern parts of Haiti (Fig. 4c). (b) (c) Figure 4: Spatial structure of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for (a) October 2025 – December 2025, (b) December 2025, and (c) Spatial structure of SPI constructed from observations for 01 November 2025 to 31 December 2025 and 4 weeks forecast ending on 28 January 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) • USGS/EROS crop WRSI: Current conditions during the 3rd Dekad of December 2025 depicted ‘Average’ to ‘Good’ crop conditions in most of Haiti. 6 GEOGLAM Crop Monitor • According to GEOGLAM Crop report issued at the end of December 2025, crop conditions are currently categorized as Mixed in Haiti, primarily due to the residual impacts of Hurricane Melissa (late October 2025) and the subsequent transition into the dry season. While extreme rainfall caused significant localized damages to the Printemps (spring) and Eté (summer) harvests in the south, current vegetation indices show favorable moisture levels for the ongoing Automne (autumn/winter) season in other regions. Additional Resources - https://protectioncivile.gouv.ht/ - https://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/ Annex Figure A1. ENSO teleconnection for the January - March (JFM) season. The upper-level panel shows the precipitation and temperature anomalies regressed onto the standardized Niño-3.4 index. The bottom panel shows the correlation between Nino-3.4 and the anomalies. Source : https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/regressions/ 7