Ayiti, klima ak metyo mansyèl, novanm 2025

FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Haiti Monthly Climate and Weather 18 December 2025 Highlights • La Niña conditions continued during November, as indicated by the below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to the NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, La Niña is favored to persist for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026. Historically, El Niño is associated with drier than average conditions and La Niña with wetter than average conditions in Haiti. • During November, climatological rainfall typically ranges from 25 mm to 100 mm across Haiti, with the highest totals generally occurring in the southern Haiti. • During the past month, areas of Nord-Ouest, Nord, Artibonite, Grand'Anse, Sud, Nippers and Sud-Est observed rainfall values between 25 mm to 100 mm. In terms of anomalies, drier than average conditions were observed in eastern and southern Haiti, while slightly above average conditions were registered in areas of Nord-Ouest and Artibonite. • The NMME monthly forecasts show weak probabilities (36-40%) for above-average rainfall in western Artibonite, northwestern Ouest departments, and Gonâve Island. Additionally, the seasonal forecast for January – March 2026 suggests enhanced probabilities exceeding 40% for near-average rainfall in northwestern Haiti. • The SPI forecast anticipates above-average conditions in northwestern, south-central, and southwestern parts of Haiti. The forecast also expects the continuation of belowaverage conditions in most of central, northern, southern, and eastern departments of Haiti. The FEWS NET Monthly Climate and Weather information bulletin is based on current weather and climate information and monthly and seasonal outlooks from the NOAA CPC. Information on crops, soil moisture, flooding, and evapotranspiration data were produced by FEWS NET, USGS, NASA and USDA. Various sources were used to assess impacts of extreme conditions. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Dr. Wassila Thiaw, Deputy Director, CPC/NOAA, wassila.thiaw@noaa.gov. Questions about the DOS FEWS NET may be directed to Dr. Kiersten Johnson, Program Manager FEWS NET/DOS, johnsonkb2@state.gov. Haiti seasonal calendar. Source: FEWS NET Current Climate Modes and Teleconnections • During November 2025, below-average SSTs were observed across the central and eastcentral Pacific Ocean. • The ENSO outlooks predict La Niña conditions are favored to persist for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (68% chance; Fig. 1). For the latest update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on ENSO, check here. • During last month, SSTs were warmer than average in much of the Gulf of America and the western Caribbean. Anomalies ranged from 0.5°C to 2.0°C, with the largest departures in the western and central Gulf of America. Also, SST was warmer than average across the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. Figure 1. Official ENSO probabilities for the Niño 3.4 SST index (5oN−5oS, 120oW−170oW). Figure updated 11 December 2025. Source: NOAA/CPC 2 • Implications of ENSO conditions: From December to January Haiti usually sees a transition from the rainy season to the dry season. Based on historical records, nearaverage conditions are likely in Haiti for December to February season (Fig. A1, left panels), while La Niña conditions are related to below average mean temperatures (Fig. A1, right panels). The ENSO-precipitation teleconnection pattern can be found here, and the pattern for temperature can be found here. Extreme Events • There have been no reports of extreme rainfall events in Haiti; however, communities were still recovering from the devastating impacts from hurricane Melissa which hit Haiti at the end of October 2025. • There have been no reports of fire activity in Haiti during November 2025. Rainfall/Precipitation • November is part of the second rainy season in Haiti. Climatological rainfall typically ranges from 25 mm to 100 mm across Haiti, with the highest totals generally found in the southern Haiti. Past 3 months (September – November 2025): • Totals: Over the last three months, the largest amounts of total rainfall ranged from 300 mm to more than 750 mm in southwestern Haiti and Gonâve Island. The western departments observed rainfall totals of 100 mm to 300 mm, while northeastern and southeastern received comparatively lower amounts of rainfall, ranging from 50 mm to 100 mm. The seasonal totals were mainly due to the heavy rainfall brought for Hurricane Melissa during last days of October, particularly, affecting areas of southwestern Haiti and Gonâve Island which experienced the highest total rainfall. • Anomalies: During the last three months, northwestern and most of Haiti’s southern departments observed above average conditions. Southwestern Haiti registered the highest surplus rainfall ranging from 300 mm to 500 mm. On the other hand, deficits continued in Artibonite department and in most of the central, southeastern, and eastern areas of Haiti, which registered below average amounts from 25 mm to 300 mm. Past 1 Month (November 2025): • Totals: During the past month, areas of Nord-Ouest, Nord, Artibonite, Grand'Anse, Sud, Nippes and Sud-Est observed between 25 mm to 100 mm rainfall. The rest of Haiti received values lower than 25 mm (Fig. 2a). • Anomalies: During November, drier than average conditions were observed in eastern and southern Haiti. Slightly above-average conditions were registered in areas of NordOuest and Artibonite. Near average conditions were observed in most of western Haiti (Fig. 2b). 3 a) b) c) Figure 2. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for November 2025: (a) 1-month total accumulation and (b) 1-month anomaly. (c) NMME seasonal rainfall probabilistic forecast for January – March 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (January 2026 and January – March 2026): • Monthly: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models show weak probabilities (36-40%) for above-average rainfall in western Artibonite, northwestern Ouest departments, and Gonâve Island. For the rest of the country, no dominant category is predicted. • Seasonal: The NMME seasonal forecast for January 2026 – March 2026 suggests that the probability of near-average rainfall exceeds 40% in northwestern Haiti. No dominant category is predicted for the rest of the country (Fig. 2c). Temperature Past 3 months (September – November 2025): • Maximums: Seasonal maximum temperatures across Haiti ranged from 25°C to 35°C. Near-average anomalies were observed across Haiti during the season. • Minimums: Temperatures of 20°C to 25°C were recorded in southern, central, and northern Haiti. Cooler temperatures of 15°C to 20°C were observed in southeastern Haiti. In terms of anomalies, rear average minimum temperature anomalies prevailed in Haiti. Past 1 Month (November 2025): • Maximums: Haiti experienced maximum temperatures ranging from 25°C to 35°C. The Nord-Ouest department and western parts of southern Haiti experienced slightly aboveaverage anomalies between 1°C and 2°C, while the rest of Haiti observed near-average temperature anomalies (Fig. 3a). • Minimums: Northern, central-western, and most of southern areas of Haiti recorded minimum temperatures between 20°C and 25°C, while cooler minimums (15°C to 20°C) were observed in central, central-eastern, and southeastern departments of Haiti. Nearaverage conditions prevailed in most of the country, except in southern Ouest and most 4 part of Sud-Est departments which observed 1°C to -2°C below average anomalies (Fig. 3b). a) b) c) Figure 3. Spatial structure of temperature for October 2025. (a) Maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature for January – March 2026. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (January 2026 and January – March 2026): • Monthly: The NMME forecast for January indicates an increased likelihood (over 70%) of above-average temperatures in northern, western, and southern Haiti. There is no clear signal for near-, above-, or below-average temperatures in the central-east regions. • Seasonal: Similarly, the seasonal forecast for January – March 2026 shows that there is an increased likelihood (over 70%) of above-average temperatures in northern, western, and southern regions of Haiti. The forecast indicates no clear signal for near-, above-, or below-average temperatures in the east-central regions of the country (Fig. 3c). Drought and Dryness The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to characterize meteorological drought. SPI compares the precipitation over a specific period of time with the climatology from that same period. Therefore, the SPI values can be thought of as the number of standard deviations the observed anomaly deviates from the climatology. The 1-month SPI values are a good representation of the monthly precipitation anomaly as well as the soil moisture and vegetation health. The 3-month SPI values are a good representation of seasonal precipitation anomalies. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is similar to the SPI, but it also takes evapotranspiration into account (and therefore the impact of temperatures on water demand). Past 3 Months (September – November 2025): • The SPI analysis for the past 3 months indicated that Haiti experienced drier than average conditions (SPI values of 0.8 to 1.6 standard deviations below the mean) over the central and eastern regions. The northwestern and most of southern areas of Haiti continued to experience wetter than average conditions (SPI values of 0.5 to 2 standard deviations above the mean). 5 Past 1 Month (November 2025): • The SPI analysis for November indicated that drier than average conditions (SPI values of 0.5 to 1.6 standard deviations below the mean) dominated in most Haiti. On the contrary, wetter than average conditions (SPI values of 0.5 to 0.8 standard deviations above the mean) were registered in eastern Nord-Ouest, western Nord, and northern Artibonite departments. Near-average SPI conditions were observed in western NordOuest, west-central Artibonite, western Grand'Anse, and western Sud departments. Current/Forecast (31 September 2025 – 28 December 2025): • The SPI forecast suggests that drier than average conditions (SPI values of 0.5 to 1.6 standard deviations below the mean) will continue over most of central, northern, southern, and eastern departments of Haiti. On the contrary, SPI forecast indicates wetterthan-average conditions (SPI values ranging from 0.5 to 2 standard deviations above the mean) in northwestern, south-central, and southwestern parts of Haiti. Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) • N/A GEOGLAM Crop Monitor • According to GEOGLAM Crop report issued at the end of November, the harvesting of secondary Été season maize and bean crops finalized in November. Moreover, planting is expected to be underway during December; however, challenges may arise due to abandonment of arable land in some departments and economic limitation for the government to maintain and improve agricultural infrastructure. Additional Resources - https://protectioncivile.gouv.ht/ - https://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/ 6 Annex Figure A1. ENSO teleconnection for the December-February (NDJ) season. The upper-level panel shows the precipitation and temperature anomalies regressed onto the standardized Niño3.4 index. The bottom panel shows the correlation between Nino-3.4 and the anomalies. Source : https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/regressions/ 7