Ayiti, klima ak metyo mansyèl, jen 2025

FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Haiti Monthly Climate and Weather 17 July 2025 Highlights  ENSO-neutral conditions persisted, with near average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) covering most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to the NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, as of early July 2025, an ENSO-neutral state is most likely to persist through the late Northern Hemisphere summer of 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Historically, El Niño is associated with drier than average conditions, while La Niña typically brings wetter than average conditions to Haiti.  June is part of the first rainy season in Haiti, which typically starts in April and extends through the middle of July. Climatological rainfall ranges from 25 mm to 300 mm across Haiti during June.  In June 2025, Haiti received total rainfall with values ranging from 5 mm to 25 mm. Negative rainfall anomalies between 10 mm and 300 mm dominated Haiti. The largest rainfall deficits (between 100 mm and 300 mm below the mean) were observed in eastern Artibonite, southern Nord, southern Nord-Est, Centre, and northwestern Ouest departments.  The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models indicates a 40% to 50% chance of below-average rainfall in central and central-eastern portions of Haiti during August. Meanwhile, the NMME seasonal forecast for August – October 2025 suggests enhanced probabilities exceeding 40% for below average rainfall across the country.  The SPI forecast suggests wetter than average conditions (SPI values ranging from 0.4 to 1.5 standard deviations above the mean) in central-west, northwestern, northeastern and southwestern Haiti. On the contrary, negative SPI values ranging from 0.4 to 1.2 standard deviations below the mean are expected in southwestern and northeastern Ouest, southeastern Centre, and western Sud-Est departments. The FEWS NET Monthly Climate and Weather information bulletin is based on current weather and climate information and monthly and seasonal outlooks from the NOAA CPC. Information on crops, soil moisture, flooding, and evapotranspiration data were produced by FEWS NET, USGS, NASA and USDA. Various sources were used to assess impacts of extreme conditions. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Dr. Wassila Thiaw, Head, International Desks/NOAA, wassila.thiaw@noaa.gov. Questions about the USAID FEWS NET activity may be directed to Dr. James Verdin, Program Manager, FEWS NET/USAID, jverdin@usaid.gov. Haiti Seasonal Calendar Current Climate Modes and Teleconnections  During July 2025, ENSO-neutral conditions persisted, with near average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) covering most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to the NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, as of early July 2025, an ENSO-neutral state is most likely to persist through the late Northern Hemisphere summer of 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, but remain nearly equal to ENSO-neutral (Fig. 1). For the latest update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on ENSO, check here.  Much of the Caribbean Sea experienced slightly above average conditions with positive SSTs anomalies of 0.51.5°C across the region. Figure 1. Official ENSO probabilities for the Niño 3.4 SST index (5oN5oS, 120oW170oW). Figure updated 10 July 2025. Source: NOAA/CPC 2  Implications of ENSO conditions: Based on historical records, La Niña conditions are associated with above average precipitation throughout Haiti from July to September (Fig. A1, left panels). Meanwhile, La Niña conditions are related to near average mean temperatures in Haiti (Fig. A1, right panels). The ENSO-precipitation teleconnection pattern can be found here, and the pattern for temperature can be found here Extreme Events  Abnormal dryness in northern Haiti emerged during the last month due to the lack of rainfall, soil moisture deficits, and stressed vegetation conditions.  There have been no reports of fire activity in Haiti during June 2025. Rainfall/Precipitation  June is part of the first rainy season in Haiti, which typically starts in April and extends through the middle of July. Climatological rainfall ranges from 25 mm to 300 mm over Haiti, with the highest rainfall totals generally observed in central-eastern Haiti (100-300 mm), while lower rainfall amounts (25-50 mm) are climatologically expected in northwestern and southern portions of Haiti during June. Past 3 months (April– June 2025):  Totals: Over the last three months, most of Haiti observed total rainfall between 100 mm and 500 mm. The northeastern Centre department received the largest totals ranging from 300 mm to 500 mm. Seasonal total rainfall amounts exceeded at least 50 mm in the remaining parts of the country.  Anomalies: During the past three months, below-average rainfall anomalies between 10 mm and 200 mm dominated Haiti. The largest deficits of 100-200 mm were observed in eastern Artibonite, south Nord, Centre and northeastern Ouest departments. On the contrary, positive rainfall anomalies ranging from 10 mm to 100 mm were confined to western Nord-Ouest and western and northern Grande-Anse departments. Past 1 Month (June 2025):  Totals: In June, Haiti received rainfall totals ranging from 5 mm to 25 mm (Fig. 2a). The largest rainfall amounts of 10 mm to 25 mm, were primarily registered in central and southwestern areas of the country.  Anomalies: During the past month, negative rainfall anomalies between 10 mm and 300 mm dominated Haiti. The largest rainfall deficits (between 100 mm and 300 mm below the mean) were observed in eastern Artibonite, southern Nord, southern Nord-Est, Centre, and northwestern Ouest departments. Meanwhile, the rest of the country registered below average rainfall amounts ranging from 10 mm to 100 mm (Fig. 2b). 3 b) a) c) Figure 2. Satellite estimates of precipitation (CMORPH) for June 2025: (a) 1-month total accumulation and (b) 1-month anomaly. (c) NMME seasonal rainfall probabilistic forecast for August – October 2025. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (August 2025 and August – October 2025):  Monthly: The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models indicates a 40% to 50% chance of below-average rainfall in central and central-eastern portions of the country during August. Meanwhile, the forecast indicates no clear signal for near-, above-, or below-average categories for the rest of the country.  Seasonal: The NMME seasonal forecast for August – October 2025 suggests enhanced probabilities exceeding 40% for below average rainfall across the country (Fig. 2c). Temperature Past 3 months (April – June 2025):  Maximums: Most of Haiti experienced maximum temperatures ranging from 25°C to 35°C. Meanwhile, southern Ouest and eastern Sud-Est registered temperatures between 25°C and 30°C. The southern departments experienced slightly above average anomalies between 1°C and 2°C, while the rest of Haiti observed near average temperature anomalies between -1°C and 1°C.  Minimums: Minimum temperatures ranged from 150°C to 25°C in most of Haiti. Meanwhile, in southeastern Centre, southern and northeastern Ouest and eastern SudEst departments registered minimum temperatures between 15°C and 20°C. Near average minimum temperature anomalies of -1°C to 1°C were observed in Haiti during last month. Past 1 Month (June 2025):  Maximums: During last month, maximum temperatures ranged from 30°C to 35°C in Haiti, and above average anomalies between 1°C and 2°C were observed in the southern regions of the country. Most of Haiti registered near average temperature anomalies of 1°C to 1°C (Fig. 3a). 4  Minimums: Most of Haiti recorded minimum temperatures between 20°C and 25°C. Moreover, areas in western Nord-Ouest, northwestern Artibonite, eastern Nippes, and eastern Sud departments observed values ranging from 25°C to 30°C. Near average minimum temperatures were observed in most of Haiti, except in southwestern regions where above average anomalies ranging from 1°C to 2°C were observed (Fig. 3b). a) b) c) Figure 3. Spatial structure of temperature for June 2025. (a) Maximum temperature anomaly and (b) minimum temperature anomaly. (c) NMME probabilistic forecast of seasonal 2-m temperature anomaly for August – October 2025. Source: NOAA/NCEP Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts (August 2025 and August – October 2025):  Monthly: The NMME forecast indicates no clear dominant signal for either below or above average temperatures in Haiti during August.  Seasonal: For the August – October 2025 season, there is an increased likelihood (over 50%) of above average temperatures in northern, western and southern Haiti. Meanwhile, there is no clear signal for near-, above-, or below-average temperatures in the central regions of the country (Fig. 3c). Drought and Dryness The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to characterize meteorological drought. SPI compares the precipitation over a specific period of time with the climatology from that same period. Therefore, the SPI values can be thought of as the number of standard deviations the observed anomaly deviates from the climatology. The 1-month SPI values are a good representation of the monthly precipitation anomaly as well as the soil moisture and vegetation health. The 3-month SPI values are a good representation of seasonal precipitation anomalies. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is similar to the SPI, but it also takes evapotranspiration into account (and therefore the impact of temperatures on water demand). Past 3 Months (April – June 2025):  The SPI analysis for the past 3 months indicated that drier than average conditions (SPI values of -0.5 to over -2 standard deviations below the mean) dominated over western Artibonite, Nord, Centre, northern and western Ouest, and western Sud-Est departments. Meanwhile, in western Nord-Ouest, northwestern Artibonite, and northwestern Grande- 5 Anse departments experienced wetter than average conditions (SPI values of 0.5 to 1.3 standard deviations above the mean). Past 1 Month (June 2025):  The SPI analysis for June 2025 indicated that Haiti experienced drier than average conditions (SPI values of -0.5 to over -2 standard deviations below the mean) across the country, except some areas in Grande-Anse, Nippes, and Sud departments that observed near average SPI conditions. Current/Forecast (30 April 2025 to 28 July 2025):  The SPI forecast suggests wetter-than-average conditions (SPI values ranging from 0.4 to 1.5 standard deviations above the mean) in central-west, northwestern, northeastern, and southwestern Haiti. On the contrary, negative SPI values ranging from -0.4 to -1.2 standard deviations below the mean are expected in southwestern and northeastern Ouest, southeastern Centre, and western Sud-Est departments. Meanwhile, the rest of the country expect near average SPI conditions. Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI)  USGS/EROS crop WRSI: Current conditions during the 2nd Dekad of June 2025 depicted ‘Average’ corn crop conditions across much of the country, and ‘Good’ corn conditions in northwestern Centre and southern Ouest departments. On the contrary, ‘Failure’ to ‘Poor’ corn conditions were observed in northern Nord-Ouest, northern Ouest, and western Artibonite. GEOGLAM Crop Monitor  GEOGLAM Crop Monitor synthesis indicated that ‘Favorable’ conditions in Haiti for maize and rice during June 2025. Additional Resources - https://protectioncivile.gouv.ht/ - https://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/ 6 Annex Figure A1. ENSO teleconnection for the July-September season. The upper-level panel shows the precipitation and temperature anomalies regressed onto the standardized Niño-3.4 index. The bottom panel shows the correlation between Nino-3.4 and the anomalies. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/regressions/ 7