(2025-04) Observatory of Violence and Resilience in Haiti, Issue 3 (April 2025)
Summary — Third risk bulletin of the GI-TOC Observatory of Violence and Resilience in Haiti, covering December 2024 to March 2025. It analyzes the operational impasse of the Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support mission and the Haitian National Police, the Transitional Presidential Council's struggle for legitimacy ahead of elections planned for November 2025, the first anniversary of the Viv Ansanm gang coalition, and the coalition's bid for political recognition after controlling an estimated 85 percent of Port-au-Prince.
Key Findings
- Between December 2024 and February 2025, 1 732 people were killed, 411 injured and 431 kidnapped, and over one million people including 700 000 children remained internally displaced.
- The MSS mission has only about 1 000 of its planned 2 500 personnel and, together with the Haitian National Police, suffers from poor coordination, slow deployment and inadequate intelligence, as shown by the deadly January 2025 attacks on Kenscoff.
- Only eight of Haiti's ten departments could plausibly hold the elections planned for November 2025, potentially excluding up to 60 percent of eligible voters because of gang control in Ouest and Artibonite.
- One year after its creation, the Viv Ansanm coalition controls about 85 percent of Port-au-Prince and its leader announced its transformation into a political party, dividing the Transitional Presidential Council over whether to recognize it.
- Gangs have shifted toward criminal governance built on systematic extortion, spreading from Port-au-Prince to rural areas of the Artibonite and the Central Plateau.
Full Description
The third issue of the GI-TOC's Haiti risk bulletin documents a security situation that deteriorated further between December 2024 and February 2025, a period in which 1 732 people were killed, 411 injured and 431 kidnapped, bringing total kidnappings for 2024 to 1 494, while over one million people, including 700 000 children, remained internally displaced. The bulletin examines four themes. First, the Multinational Security Support mission (MSS), with roughly 1 000 of the planned 2 500 personnel deployed, and the Haitian National Police remain caught between limited resources, poor coordination and intelligence failures, illustrated by the January attacks on Kenscoff that killed at least 40 people despite prior warnings; the graduation of 739 new police officers has not offset systemic weaknesses. Second, the Transitional Presidential Council struggles to establish political legitimacy: only eight of ten departments could plausibly hold the elections planned for November 2025, potentially excluding up to 60 percent of eligible voters because of gang control in the Ouest and Artibonite departments. Third, one year after its creation, the Viv Ansanm coalition has consolidated criminal governance, reducing indiscriminate violence in some strongholds to entrench extortion economies while expanding aggressively toward Kenscoff and Pétion-Ville, effectively encircling the capital.