(2023-01) 2023 Haiti Fragility Brief

Carleton Univ. • 2023 • 23 pages

Summary — A fragility assessment of Haiti using Carleton University's CIFP framework and an Authority-Legitimacy-Capacity (ALC) analysis across six structural indicators. It identifies governance and security as the primary drivers of fragility, arguing that Haiti is caught in a legitimacy trap rather than a security problem solvable by intervention, and presents January-July 2023 scenarios plus three policy options addressed to Canada's Peace and Stabilization Operations Program.

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Key Findings

Haiti's fragility is driven primarily by a governance legitimacy trap and security collapse, not by economic or humanitarian factors, so security-only responses such as military intervention would miss the root causes.
Gangs control over 60 percent of Port-au-Prince, the G9 is one of an estimated 95 gang elements, and 81.9 percent of prison inmates are pre-trial detainees.
The richest 20 percent of Haitians hold more than 64 percent of total wealth while the poorest 20 percent hold under one percent; remittances reached 23 percent of GDP by 2021.
Voter turnout fell to 18 percent in the 2016 presidential election and Haiti's Corruption Perceptions Index score hovers around 18/100.
The brief recommends Canada back the Montana Accord transitional council, fund an independent analysis and transparency institution, and lead a multilateral coalition against elite capture and tax-haven wealth drain.

Full Description

Prepared at Carleton University's Norman Paterson School of International Affairs for Global Affairs Canada's Peace and Stabilization Operations Program (PSOP), this brief combines the CIFP structural-indicator framework (security and crime, governance, economic development, human development, demography and population, environment) with an Authority-Legitimacy-Capacity analysis. Governance and security are classified as primary drivers of fragility, both high-risk and worsening: Haiti had no elected leaders, an executive ruling by decree with contested legitimacy, gangs controlling more than 60 percent of Port-au-Prince, roughly one police officer per 1,000 people, and 81.9 percent of prison inmates in pre-trial detention. Economic development, human development, and environment are treated as secondary, symptomatic drivers, with the richest 20 percent holding over 64 percent of wealth and remittances at 23 percent of GDP by 2021. The scenario analysis (January-July 2023) expects continued gang territorial control, elite-aligned elections with record-low turnout, and probable resistance to any military intervention. Three policy options are proposed for Canada: backing the Montana Accord's CSO-led transitional government, creating an independent Haitian-Canadian analysis and transparency institution, and building a multilateral coalition targeting elite capture and wealth drain.

Topics

Geography

Time Coverage

1997 — 2023

Keywords

state fragility, legitimacy trap, ALC analysis, gang violence, Montana Accord, elite capture, Canadian foreign policy, PSOP, governance, corruption, transitional government, wealth inequality

Entities

Carleton University, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Global Affairs Canada, PSOP, CIFP, Ariel Henry, Jovenel Moise, Michel Martelly, Jimmy Cherizier, G9, 400 Mawozo, Montana Accord, National Transition Committee (CNT), Fanmi Lavalas, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, PHTK, MINUSTAH, BINUH, Eric Jean Baptiste, Gary Bodeau, Timothy Schwartz