(2023-03) Have Haitians Finally Found the Formula for Moving Forward?
Summary — Keith Mines argues the little-noticed December 21 Agreement ('National Consensus for an Inclusive Transition and Transparent Elections'), signed by business, civil society and political actors with PM Ariel Henry, offers Haiti's most inclusive transition architecture to date. Its High Council of the Transition (HCT) and oversight body (OCAG) channel Haitian voices into governance and election preparation, and deserve active international diplomatic and financial support.
Key Findings
- Haiti is not a failed state but one at the lowest level of functionality, retaining a government, security forces, diplomacy, working ports and airports and a dynamic civil society, assets that migration is rapidly draining.
- The December 21, 2022 agreement creates the most inclusive transition architecture to date, aiming for an effective, transparent, representative transitional government and elections by end-2023.
- The three-member HCT (Mirlande Manigat, Laurent St. Cyr, Calixte Fleuridor), installed February 7, will run consultations starting with security, help select the CEP and steer constitutional revisions, while the OCAG performs legislative-style oversight.
- The accord's leverage over PM Henry depends on backing from Haiti's key allies and on the quality of the consultations; a secretariat and models like Tunisia's Quartet dialogue and Colombia's regional dialogues could make them work.
- Modifying and developing this architecture, possibly adding HCT members and inclusive debate on appointments, is far preferable to starting over and losing another year.
Full Description
In this March 2023 analysis (French-language edition), Keith Mines pushes back against the 'failed state' label: having served in Somalia after its 1992 collapse, he judges Haiti a state at the lowest level of functionality, with an underperforming, unelected government, but still possessing security forces, diplomatic representation, functioning ports and airports, and a dynamic civil society, assets failed states lack, though migration is rapidly draining them. The December 21, 2022 agreement, developed by a coalition of business, civil society and political actors and endorsed by PM Ariel Henry, aims to create a transparent, representative transition architecture leading to elections by end-2023.
Its pillars: a three-member High Council of the Transition (HCT), former first lady Mirlande Manigat (political sector), Chamber of Commerce president Laurent St. Cyr (business) and Protestant Federation president Calixte Fleuridor (civil society), installed February 7 to run consultations starting with security, participate in selecting the electoral council (CEP) and steer constitutional revisions; and an OCAG performing legislative-style oversight of budgets and management. Mines acknowledges detractors, some see a luxury of dialogue or a prop for an unpopular PM, but argues the design channels dialogue directly into governance, and modifying this architecture beats starting over and losing another year. Success requires international support: a secretariat for the HCT/OCAG, expertise for complex consultations (models include Tunisia's 2011 Quartet dialogue and Colombia's regional dialogues, plus social media tools to overcome security constraints), and diplomatic insistence from Haiti's key allies on following through.
Notes
Recovered from Wayback Machine (USIP 2025 publisher takedown); FR snapshot printed to PDF