(2024-11) Four Questions That Could Determine Haiti's Future
Summary — After the Transitional Presidential Council fired PM Garry Conille and gunfire hit a U.S. airliner over Port-au-Prince in November 2024, Georges Fauriol frames Haiti's trajectory around four questions: can the interim government's components cooperate, what follows the underperforming MSS mission, where is international support heading under a new U.S. administration, and is the February 2026 democratic transition still feasible. The short-term danger is state collapse before an effective security approach is agreed.
Key Findings
- The CPT's November 10, 2024 dismissal of PM Conille after six months, amid corruption accusations against three CPT members, deepened cynicism toward the governing class and exposed unclear decision rights between council and prime minister.
- The short-term danger is that what remains of the Haitian state collapses before the international community settles on an effective security approach.
- The MSS is arguably a missed opportunity: the Kenyan deployment is far below promised strength while gangs, operating with impunity and cartel-like ambition, calibrate violence for political effect.
- Security options include a conventional U.N. peacekeeping operation (favored but slow, deployment perhaps not complete before spring 2025, and opposed by Russia and China), a U.S.-led coalition absorbing the MSS, a direct U.S.-led anti-trafficking campaign with private contractors, or a Bukele-style army-building option with serious downsides.
- The February 2026 transition is non-negotiable for Washington yet nearly impossible on the announced timetable; the constitutional referendum is the most achievable milestone, while past presidential turnout near or below 20 percent underlines the electoral challenge.
Full Description
This November 2024 analysis (French-language edition) was written after the Transitional Presidential Council (CPT) dismissed PM Garry Conille on November 10 after six months, corruption accusations shadowed three CPT members, and a U.S. commercial airliner was hit by gunfire, closing Haiti's main airport. Fauriol's first question concerns cohesion: with Leslie Voltaire presiding and Alix Didier Fils-Aimé as new PM, decision rights must be clarified, the dormant Organe de Surveillance de l'Action Gouvernementale activated, and the transitional government's Security Council formalized. Second, security options beyond the underperforming Kenyan-led MSS: transition to a conventional U.N. peacekeeping operation (larger, institutionally funded, but slow to deploy, possibly not complete before spring 2025, and facing Russian-Chinese opposition); merging the MSS into a robust U.S.-led coalition; a direct U.S.-led regional campaign against gangs and trafficking networks using specialized private contractors; or a 'Bukele option' building a modern Haitian army, which Fauriol flags as politically appealing to some but potentially a failing strategy in Haiti's context.
Third, international support is entering uncertainty with the change of U.S. administration, with gang violence increasingly calibrated for political effect and gangs evolving toward cartel-like operational ambition. Fourth, the February 2026 transition demands near-miracles in 2025: street-level security, a constitutional referendum (the most achievable step, building on the parliamentary commission report and Jerry Tardieu's constitutional study group under the National Conference's Comité de Pilotage), reconstitution of the electoral council, and election funding, against a history of turnout near or below 20 percent. He concludes that no support will work unless Haitian leaders set aside personal ambition, and fragmented international efforts will not deliver the 2026 transition.
Notes
Recovered from Wayback Machine (USIP 2025 publisher takedown); FR snapshot printed to PDF