(2025-04) Haiti Macro Poverty Outlook
Summary — World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook country brief for Haiti (April 2025), reporting a 4.2 percent GDP contraction in 2024 amid gang violence and political-institutional crisis, with poverty rising even as tighter fiscal and monetary policy eased inflation. A further 2.2 percent contraction is projected for 2025 before a modest recovery in 2026 and 2027.
Key Findings
- GDP contracted 4.2 percent in 2024 amid gang violence and political-institutional crisis, with agriculture (-5.6 percent) the hardest-hit sector.
- Poverty rose sharply, with the share of Haitians living on less than US$2.15/day (2017 PPP) estimated at 36.2 percent in 2024, up from 31.1 percent in 2021.
- Tight monetary policy (zero monetary financing of the deficit by the BRH) and fiscal consolidation cut inflation from 44.2 percent in 2023 to 25.8 percent in 2024 and let the gourde appreciate 1.6 percent against the US dollar.
- The fiscal deficit narrowed from 2.1 percent of GDP in 2023 to 0.1 percent in 2024.
- GDP is forecast to contract a further 2.2 percent in 2025 before modest growth of 2.0 percent in 2026 and 2.5 percent in 2027, contingent on political and security improvements.
Full Description
This World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook brief for Haiti (Spring 2025 edition, reflecting information as of April 10, 2025) reports that GDP contracted by 4.2 percent in 2024 amid escalating gang violence and an ongoing political-institutional crisis that deepened after Prime Minister Gary Conille's dismissal by the Transitional Presidential Council in November 2024 and his replacement by Prime Minister Fils-Aimé. Agriculture registered the largest sectoral decline at 5.6 percent, disproportionately hurting the poor and vulnerable, while industry contracted 4.7 percent amid textile-sector layoffs and services shrank 3.9 percent. Despite these conditions, tight monetary policy with zero monetary financing of the deficit by the central bank (BRH) and continued fiscal consolidation strengthened the macroeconomic framework: consumer price inflation fell from an average of 44.2 percent in 2023 to 25.8 percent in 2024, the fiscal deficit narrowed from 2.1 to 0.1 percent of GDP, and the gourde appreciated 1.6 percent against the US dollar. Even so, the share of Haitians living on less than US$2.15/day (2017 PPP) is estimated to have climbed to 36.2 percent in 2024 from 31.1 percent in 2021. GDP is forecast to contract a further 2.2 percent in 2025 as political crisis and inflation weigh on investment and consumption, before modest growth of 2.0 percent in 2026 and 2.5 percent in 2027 assuming security and political improvements. The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 1.2 percent of GDP in 2025 on security and elections-related spending, and international poverty is projected to ease only slightly from 37.6 percent in 2025 to 36.7 percent by 2027, with the outlook fraught with downside risks tied to an effective political transition.
Notes
World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook, Haiti country brief, Spring 2025 (April 2025) edition. Haiti section extracted from the Latin America and Caribbean regional MPO volume (no standalone Haiti brief was published for this edition). Part of the semiannual MPO series.