(2022) Haiti Macro Poverty Outlook - Datasheet
Summary — Statistical datasheet accompanying the Annual Meetings 2022 World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook for Haiti: the full projection table of macroeconomic and poverty indicators.
Key Findings
- GDP is expected to contract 1.5 percent in FY22, a fourth consecutive year of contraction, then edge to -0.1 percent in FY23 before rebounding to 2.0 percent in 2024 (constant market prices).
- Inflation surged to 30.5 percent on deficit monetization, higher food and fuel prices, and insecurity, and is projected to close FY22 at about 26.5 percent on average before trending down.
- The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 3.2 percent of GDP in FY22, driven by energy subsidies (fuel subsidies reached 3.5 percent of GDP), financed largely by the BRH and T-bills, with debt at 27.7 percent of GDP.
- Poverty remains entrenched: the international poverty rate (2.15 dollars, 2017 PPP) is 30.8 percent in FY22, and growth is too weak to make much of a dent against poverty.
- The outlook is fraught with downside risks tied to the political process, gang insecurity, and natural hazards, with food insecurity affecting 5.6 million people in August 2022.
Full Description
The statistical annex to the Annual Meetings 2022 edition of the World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook for Haiti. It presents the complete data table underlying the country brief: historical values and projections for real GDP growth, inflation, the fiscal balance and revenues, public debt, the current account, and poverty headcount rates at the international, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income lines, reported by fiscal year.
Full Document Text
Extracted text from the original document for search indexing.
SELECTED INDICATORS* Avg. '00-152008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/21 E2021/22 F
INCOME AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
GDP growth (annual %) 2.2 5.9 -5.7 5.1 0.5 4.3 1.7 2.6 1.8 2.5 1.7 -1.7 -3.3 -1.8 -1.5
GDP per capita growth (annual %, real) 0.6 4.3 -7.1 3.5 -1.0 2.8 0.3 1.2 0.5 1.2 0.4 -2.9 -4.5 -3.0 -2.6
GDP per capita (US$, nominal) 1019.71183.71192.01288.01337.31432.71435.31386.81290.41369.01479.21312.91272.31814.61492.6
Private Consumption growth (annual %) 3.3 9.5 -6.7 3.5 1.1 5.6 0.0 4.5 5.6 5.0 4.1 -1.0 -4.0 1.2 -1.1
Gross Investment ( % of nominal GDP) 13.8 12.6 25.0 19.1 17.5 17.5 16.5 14.1 16.9 20.2 18.7 20.3 17.7 18.0 8.5
Gross Investment - Public ( % of nominal GDP)
2
6.9 4.0 17.9 13.9 11.1 10.0 7.3 6.3 3.7 3.7 5.6 1.5 2.5 2.1 1.5
MONEY AND PRICES
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %, EOP or MRV)
1,3
10.1 -2.7 4.3 7.5 4.7 4.3 4.0 8.4 10.7 10.8 13.3 19.7 25.2 13.1 29.3
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %, period average)
3
9.8 5.6 2.9 5.2 5.7 5.3 3.2 5.3 11.4 10.6 11.4 17.3 22.9 15.9 26.4
Norminal Base Money (% of GDP)
²
13.6 12.0 17.0 16.8 17.1 15.0 14.3 16.5 16.9 16.1 17.2 17.3 16.1 18.9 23.8
Domestic Credit to the Private Sector ( % of GDP)
2
9.8 9.1 8.5 9.6 11.5 11.9 12.6 12.2 12.6 11.2 11.6 12.3 9.7 9.4 ..
10 year interest rate (annual average)
³
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Nominal Exchange Rate (local currency per USD) 38.0 40.7 40.3 40.3 41.6 43.1 44.6 48.6 60.4 65.6 65.4 84.1 99.9 81.1 108.0
Real Exchange Rate Index (2015=100) 95.3 91.3 97.3101.0103.1103.1105.3100.0 89.5 88.6 94.2 84.1 84.5 116.0 101.9
FISCAL
Revenue (% of GDP) 11.2 9.8 22.1 18.6 14.9 12.3 10.9 11.4 10.8 10.4 9.9 7.5 7.5 6.9 7.4
Expenditure (% of GDP) 13.2 10.1 24.5 21.6 18.7 17.6 15.3 14.2 11.3 10.9 12.1 9.5 10.5 9.4 10.6
Interest Payments (% of GDP) 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.9
Non-Interest Expenditure (% of GDP) 13.3 9.7 24.3 21.4 18.5 17.4 15.1 14.0 11.1 10.7 11.9 9.3 10.2 9.1 9.7
Overall Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -0.3 -2.4 -3.0 -3.8 -5.3 -4.4 -2.7 -0.5 -0.5 -2.1 -2.0 -3.0 -2.5 -3.2
Primary Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.8 0.1 -2.2 -2.8 -3.6 -5.1 -4.2 -2.6 -0.3 -0.3 -2.0 -1.7 -2.7 -2.2 -2.3
General Government Debt (% of GDP) 21.5 15.8 9.7 6.8 9.4 12.2 15.3 17.8 21.4 19.9 23.5 26.2 24.4 25.6 27.7
External Public Debt (% of GDP)
2
15.9 10.6 6.6 5.3 7.8 10.0 12.3 14.3 14.4 14.1 12.9 15.8 10.1 12.9 11.6
cheat
EXTERNAL ACCOUNTS
Export growth, G&S (nominal US$, annual %) 8.2 12.7 -1.7 29.1 0.9 18.4 6.1 5.2 -7.1 2.5 6.9 -2.7 -41.5 22.4 -17.8
Import growth, G&S (nominal US$, annual %) 9.3 -2.0 51.9 3.8 -5.4 5.9 7.0 -5.5 -1.9 12.0 14.1 -8.2 -18.5 24.2 -24.4
Merchandise exports (% of GDP) 5.7 4.8 4.8 5.9 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.2 6.6 6.6 8.1 6.1 5.4 6.8
Merchandise imports (% of GDP) 20.0 17.6 25.2 25.5 22.5 22.4 24.2 23.3 26.3 27.6 29.2 30.6 25.9 22.0 26.6
Services, net (% of GDP) -3.5 -2.5 -7.0 -4.4 -4.1 -3.0 -2.5 -2.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -2.2 -2.4 3.0
Current account balance (current US$ millions) -158.2-130.6-128.2-295.9-404.8-515.0-595.8-265.3-267.3-325.0-474.0-169.5 216.2 141.4 -237.8
Current account balance (% of GDP) -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -2.3 -3.0 -3.5 -3.9 -1.8 -1.9 -2.2 -2.9 -1.1 1.5 0.7 -1.4
Foreign Direct Investment, net inflows (% of GDP) 0.7 0.5 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5
External debt, total (% of GDP)
2
15.9 12.5 8.1 6.0 8.5 10.5 12.9 14.1 15.5 14.4 13.5 15.0 16.0 .. ..
Multilateral debt (% of total external debt)
2
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Debt service ratio (% of exports goods and non-factor services)
2
6.8 4.2 12.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 5.4 1.2 1.0 1.2 .. .. ..
HAITI
See next page for more indicators
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Public Disclosure Authorized
Public Disclosure Authorized
Public Disclosure Authorized
SELECTED INDICATORS* Avg. '00-152008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/21 E2021/22 F
HAITI
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT AND POVERTY
Population, total (millions) 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.7
Population Growth (annual %) 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
Unemployment Rate
2
13.7 15.7 15.4 14.5 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 15.5 15.7 ..
International poverty rate ($2.15 in 2017 PPP)
⁴
.. .. .. .. 29.2 .. .. .. .. .. 27.4 28.2 29.5 30.3 30.8
Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65 in 2017 PPP)
⁴
.. .. .. .. 58.0 .. .. .. .. .. 57.0 57.5 58.2 58.7 58.9
Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85 in 2017 PPP)
⁴
.. .. .. .. 85.8 .. .. .. .. .. 83.0 84.3 86.3 87.6 88.3
OTHER
GDP (current LCU, millions) 394686.4471795.6478044.2524124.0569992.5642673.7675571.5720255.0844479.0986919.11076412.71244014.01449887.51699209.01882805.3
GDP (current US$, millions) 9957.911597.711859.213008.813708.314900.915140.614832.313988.415035.316453.914786.814507.620944.417433.4
GDP per capita LCU (real) 55363.258374.554238.056151.055604.057173.657340.658004.358268.758956.959181.457461.754861.353223.851818.8
Human Development Index Ranking
⁵
158.6 162 165 165 167 170 169 170 170 171 170 170 .. .. ..
CPIA (overall rating)
2
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 .. ..
Economic Management
2
3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 .. ..
Structural Policies
2
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.0 .. ..
Policies for Social Inclusion and Equity
2
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 .. ..
Public Sector Management and Institutions
2
2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 .. ..
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Notes: ".." indicates not available. E = estimate, F = forecast. Data from MFMOD unless otherwise noted. Poverty data are expressed in 2017 PPP, versus 2011 PPP in previous editions - resulting in major changes. See pip.worldbank.org
1/ Used latest month available.
2/ World Development Indicators Database and World Bank Staff Estimates
3/ World Bank GEM database; MRV = Most recent value
4/ Calculations based on SEDLAC harmonization, using 2013-, 2019-, and 2012-ECVMAS.Projection using point-to-point elasticity (2013-2019) with pass-through = 0.87 based on GDP per capita in constant LCU. Actual data: 2012. Nowcast: 2013-2021. Forecasts are from 2022 to 2024.
5/ The HDI ranking in 2001 is in relation to 175 countries and in 2010 in relation to 169 countries. Methodological enhancements in HDI calculations have resulted in notable improvements in the countries' rankings.
Sources: MFMOD Database, World Bank WDI and GEM databases, IMF.