(2022-10) Haiti Macro Poverty Outlook

This October 2022 World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook projects that Haiti's GDP will contract for a fourth consecutive year, by 1.5 percent in FY22, as a deep political and institutional crisis compounded by gang insecurity depresses investor confidence and hampers all three economic sectors. The index of economic activity fell 1.9 percent year-over-year in Q2 FY22, with agriculture down 6.4 percent after poor rainfall, while a monetized fiscal deficit (2.0 percent of GDP) helped push the gourde down 21.6 percent against the USD and lifted inflation to 30.5 percent, driven also by fuel subsidies that reached 3.5 percent of GDP. The fiscal deficit is expected to widen to 3.2 percent of GDP in FY22, mainly from energy subsidies, financed largely by the central bank (BRH) and T-bills, while debt stands at 27.7 percent of GDP. Growth is projected at -0.1 percent in FY23 before a rebound to 2.0 percent in 2024, contingent on more stable politics after 2023 elections and improved security. Inflation is expected to close FY22 at 26.5 percent on average and trend down over the medium term as BRH financing is replaced by T-bill issuance. Poverty stays elevated, with the international poverty rate (2.15 dollars, 2017 PPP) at 30.8 percent, and growth is judged too weak to make much of a dent in poverty. The outlook is fraught with downside risks tied to the political process and security, with energy-sector reform and stronger disaster risk management flagged as critical, and food insecurity affecting 5.6 million people in August 2022.

World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook - Haiti country brief, Annual Meetings 2022 (October 2022) edition. Part of the semiannual MPO series.