(2025-03) Economic Activity Indicator (ICAE) Bulletin, Q2 (Jan–Mar) FY2024-2025
Summary — The global Economic Activity Conjunctural Indicator (ICAE) decreased by 2.7% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 compared to the previous year, with a cumulative drop of 2.6% from October 2024 to March 2025. This decline is attributed to negative performance across the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors. Financial intermediation and non-market services were among the few sectors showing positive growth.
Key Findings
- The global ICAE decreased by 2.7% in Q2 2025 and 2.6% cumulatively (Oct 2024-Mar 2025).
- The primary sector contracted by 5.7% annually, driven by declines in agriculture (-5.6%) and extractive activities (-6.4%).
- The secondary sector saw a 4.9% decrease, with construction (-6.5%) and manufacturing (-4.4%) being major contributors.
- The tertiary sector declined by 1.2%, largely due to poor performance in trade (-4.0%) and restaurants/hotels (-7.0%).
- Financial intermediation (4.7%) and non-market services (2.3%) were among the few sectors to show positive annual growth.
Full Description
The Economic Activity Conjunctural Indicator (ICAE) global experienced a significant contraction of 2.7% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 (January-March 2025) compared to the same period last year, with its index falling from 123.7 to 120.4. Cumulatively, from October 2024 to March 2025, the global ICAE dropped by 2.6%. This overall decline is primarily driven by negative performances across all three major economic sectors. The primary sector saw a 5.7% annual decrease, mainly due to declines in agriculture (-5.6%) and extractive activities (-6.4%). The secondary sector contracted by 4.9%, with manufacturing (-4.4%), construction (-6.5%), and electricity and water (-5.8%) all showing negative trends. The tertiary sector also experienced a 1.2% decline, largely due to poor performance in trade (-4.0%), restaurants and hotels (-7.0%), and transport (-4.2%).
Despite the general downturn, some sectors showed resilience. Financial intermediation recorded a 4.7% annual increase, driven by commercial banks' production. Non-market services also grew by 2.3% annually, and transport and communications saw a slight 0.3% increase, primarily due to a rise in telecommunications. The report highlights the persistent economic slowdown affecting most branches of activity, exacerbated by factors like the suspension of international flights to Port-au-Prince and obstacles to free movement.