(2023-10) Haiti Needs a Political Dialogue Alongside the Multinational Security Mission
Summary — After the U.N. Security Council's 13-0 vote (Russia and China abstaining) authorizing the Kenyan-led force for Haiti, Keith Mines explains the mission's mandate and its challenges: a smaller, non-military force facing better-armed gangs controlling up to 90 percent of the capital, with the political environment the true center of gravity. He argues the U.S. must simultaneously back a government reset, ideally through a national reconciliation conference producing a Council of Sages-style transitional executive.
Key Findings
- The U.N. Security Council authorized the Kenyan-led multinational force 13-0 with Russia and China abstaining, responding to Haiti's October 2022 request.
- Violence had worsened sharply: 2,094 homicides in the year to July 2023 (up 67 percent), half the population food insecure, 200,000 internally displaced and gangs controlling up to 90 percent of the capital.
- The force is far smaller and less militarized than the 1994 (20,000 personnel) and 2004 (6,400 soldiers, ~1,700 police) interventions, while facing better-armed gangs and a legacy of cholera (10,000 deaths) and abuse.
- The mission's center of gravity is political: without a governance reset it risks propping up an unelected, unpopular government.
- A national reconciliation conference of roughly 20-30 principals, possibly in Cap-Haïtien, could produce a Council of Sages-style transitional executive, with the U.S. discreetly providing the inducements to make parties abide by its decisions.
Full Description
This October 2023 question-and-answer analysis explains the U.N. Security Council resolution, passed 13-0 with Russia and China abstaining, clearing Kenya to lead a multinational force to confront Haiti's gangs alongside the Haitian National Police. Mines traces the request to the Haitian government's October 2022 letter to the U.N. secretary-general, and documents the deterioration since: 2,094 homicides in the year to July 2023 (up 67 percent from 2022), half the population food insecure, 200,000 internally displaced and gangs controlling up to 90 percent of Port-au-Prince. Kenya will contribute 1,000 border police and mission leadership; a dozen other countries pledged support and the U.S. offered $100 million in financial support plus $100 million in intelligence, equipment and logistics enablers.
Mines flags four challenges: Haitian resistance rooted in the legacy of past forces (a cholera epidemic that killed 10,000, sexual predation); the new force's small size and lack of military components compared with the 20,000-strong 1994 intervention and the 6,400 soldiers and 1,700 police of 2004; the absence of natural community connections, requiring dialogue with civil society and differentiated engagement with gangs; and above all the political environment, since the force risks propping up an unelected, unpopular government. He proposes a national reconciliation conference, roughly a dozen key political movements plus civil society, business, religious actors and the government, 20-30 seats at the main table, possibly convened in Cap-Haïtien, to form a Council of Sages-style transitional executive as in 2004, with the U.S. providing critical inducements from the background. A transitional government seated before end-2023 could then anchor the incoming force's security reset.
Notes
Recovered from Wayback Machine (USIP 2025 publisher takedown); web article printed to PDF