Les entreprises face à la violence des gangs : Enquête sur le climat des affaires - Haïti

Firms through Gang Violence Business Pulse Survey - Haiti March 2025 Presentation to business associations June 10, 2025 Executive Summary 3 • Background : Between 2021 and 2024 , it is estimated that Haiti suffered economic losses of approximately - 20 . 7 % . While macroeconomic estimates exist, a thorough evaluation of violence's impact on the private sector is lacking . • Business Pulse Survey : February - March 2025 assessment of 719 firms measured violence impacts, damage levels, transmission channels, and response strategies • Key Survey Findings : 1. Heightened crime and violence : 60 % of firms report increased crime and 24 % ransom payments in their communes . Retail and hospitality most affected . 2. Violence severely impacted businesses : 44 % of firms report violence - related losses (> 50 % in hospitality), with affected firms experiencing 40 % asset damage . Declines of 25 % in investment, 26 % in sales, and 20 % in jobs . ICT and hospitality sectors hit hardest . 3. Input and infrastructure disruptions driving decline in sales : Sales decline primarily driven by input costs or supply disruptions ( 30 % of firms) . 60 % experienced power outages and 50 % internet service insufficiencies . ICT and hospitality sectors hit hardest . Executive Summary 4 4 . Firm adapted to violence by investing in security, innovating and adopting digital solutions : Over 80 % of firms modified operations for safety, with investors allocating 6 % of sales to security equipment . 74 % implemented innovations and 56 % adopted digital solutions, while only 3 % relocated from Port - au - Prince . 5 . Access to financing emerges as a critical concern : While only 22 % face immediate liquidity issues, 26 % are in or expect arrears, and 60 % already report difficulties securing financing . Haiti Business Pulse Survey (BPS) – Survey details 5 Focus •Impact of violence on firms (sales and assets) •Channels of transmission •Firm responses •Government and international community support Implementation •719 businesses (677 by phone or in - person and 42 on - line). In - person interviews done at the request of the respondents. •February to March 2025 •Mainly micro, formal, domestic - owned and services firms. Questionnaire with 9 modules 1.Operating status 2.Damages and theft on firms 3.Impacts on sales and employment 4.Channels affecting operations 5.Security and Protection 6.Public policies support 7.Adjustment mechanisms 8.Investments 9.Trade and GVCs Survey design for FCV areas: Considered primary & recency effects; sensitivity; clear transition statements; full attention checks ISIC classification for sectors Firms are considered formal if they meet any of the following criterion: registration with the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (Société anonyme, société en nom collectif; entreprise individuelle); registration with the Tax Directorate; authorization of Ministries of Health, Justice and Public Security, Social Affairs and Labor (MAST); mayor’s office (registration of merchants and individual businesses), Centre de Facilitation d’investissement (CFI) (registration of investment incentives advantages). Demand Uncertainty Supply Firm Responses Employment and capital Suppliers Technology Shutdown Impacts Direct (e.g., physical damages, business interruptions) Indirect (e.g., value chain disruption) Transitory or Permanent? Expected or unexpected? Heterogeneity Size Productivity Sector Location Others Violence Violence affects firms through multiple channels 64% of firms reported increased crime in their communes Question : To the best of your knowledge, has the level of crime in your commune? Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Level of crime in a firm’s commune: Percent of firms 7 No signs of recovery: sales down 26% since 2021 Question: Comparing this company/enterprise sales for the last 30 days (before this interview) with June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), did the sales? Note: Result are unconditional estimates. Source - World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Change in sales (in %): by Size 8 Nearly 45% of the firms report damages or losses caused by violence since June 2021 Question: Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), has this company/enterprise been damaged or suffered from stolen assets due to gangs/gang violence? Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Damaged or suffered from stolen assets due to gangs/gang violence: Percent of firms 9 Power outages affected 60% of firms, particularly ICT and professional services sectors (70%) Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS. The results are unconditional estimates. Percent of firms that experienced power outages: by sector 10 Question: In the last 30 days (before this interview), did this company/enterprise experience power outages? Input disruptions seem to be driving sales cancellations Question: In the last 30 days (before this interview), did this company/enterprise have to cancel any sale orders because there were no inputs for production (they were delayed or interrupted)? 11 Change in sales (%): by whether sales orders were cancelled Note: Results are unconditional estimates Source - World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Cancelled Orders Accounted for 40% of Sales Question: What is the percentage of (monthly) sales that those cancelled transactions represent? Notes: Hospitality sector includes accommodation and food services. Results are unconditional estimates. Source - World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percentage share of cancelled sales in total monthly sales: by sector 12 Investing firms prioritized security: 94% purchased equipment and 50% hired personnel Question : Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), has your company/enterprise made the following private security investments Notes: Capital goods includes: security cameras, remote monitoring, access control systems, Locks and secured storage facilities. Private security personnel payments includes payments to gangs for security, hiring private security companies. Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS. Type of private security investment: Percent of firms 13 Six of ten businesses experience financing difficulties, with manufacturing hardest hit at about 70% Question : Does this company/enterprise currently face any difficulties in accessing finance? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Difficulties in accessing finance by sector: Percent of firms 14 Top Business Support Needs: New Credit Access (60%) and Security Insurance (33%). Question : What type of support programs either from the government or international organizations would be more important for your business(es) today? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Policy support needs of businesses: Percent of firms 16 1. Reconstruction/recovery funding must be dramatically increased : 44% of firms suffered violence, damaged 40% of assets; only 11% repaired. Hospitality and manufacturing worst affected. 2. Economic recovery programs should target hardest - hit sectors : Sales, employment and investment remain 20 - 30% below 2021 levels, especially in ICT and hospitality. Monthly data shows no recovery. 3. Critical infrastructure requires immediate public intervention : 66% of firms face power outages, 50% internet disruptions, particularly in ICT, hospitality and manufacturing. Supply - constrained firms suffered 30% sales drop. 4. Financial support mechanisms and digitalization and innovation programs need immediate expansion . 60% of firms need credit access, particularly in manufacturing (70%) and 30% require violence - related insurance. Firms respond to violence by digitalizing and innovating. 17 One in four firms report damages or losses caused by violence since June 2021 Conclusions and policy implications Annexes One in four firms report damages or losses caused by violence since June 2021 Question: LHS: Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), has this company/enterprise been damaged or suffer ed from stolen assets due to gangs/gang violence? RHS: In the last 30 days (before this interview), did this company/enterprise exper ien ce any losses due to theft, robbery, vandalism, arson on the company/enterprise’s premises or from internet hacking or fraudulent internet tra nsactions? Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percent of firms that suffered damages/losses since June 2021: by sector 19 Percent of firms that suffered damages/losses in the last 30 days: by sector About 40% of Firm’s Total Assets were Damaged Since June 2021 Question: What was the value of the damaged assets and property at this company/enterprise due to gangs/gang violence since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), including stolen assets and property, relative to the total assets and property of the company/enterprise? Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percent of damaged assets in total assets by sector 20 Only 11% of the damaged losses have been repaired since 2021 Question: What is the share of the damaged assets that you have already been able to repair/replace? Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percent of repaired damages by sector 21 Impact on sales No signs of recovery: sales still down 26% since 2021 Question: Comparing this company/enterprise sales for the last 30 days (before this interview) with June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), did the sales? Note: Result are unconditional estimates. Source - World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Change in sales (in %): by Size 23 Sales dropped by 20% in the last month [Feb/March 2025], particularly in hospitality Question: Comparing establishment’s sales for the last 30 days (before this interview) with the same period of last year, did the sales Note: These are unconditional estimates. Source - World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Change in sales compared to same period last year (in %): by sector 24 Medium size companies saw the largest 24% sales drop Question: Comparing establishment’s sales for the last 30 days (before this interview) with the same period of last year, did the sales Note: Results are unconditional estimates. Large firms(100+) was excluded because there are only 3 large firms in the sample. Sources - World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Change in sales (in %): by Size 25 Input disruptions seem to be driving sales cancellations, particularly in manufacturing Question: In the last 30 days (before this interview), did this company/enterprise have to cancel any sale orders because there were no inputs for production (they were delayed or interrupted)? Cancelled sales order due to input costs/interruptions: Percent of firms 26 Change in sales: by whether sales orders were cancelled Note: Results are unconditional estimates Sources - World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Cancellations accounted for about 40% of sales drop Question: What is the percentage of (monthly) sales that those cancelled transactions represent? Note: Result are unconditional estimates. Sources - World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percentage share of cancelled sales in total monthly sales: by sector 27 Cancelled Orders Accounted to 40% of Sales Question: What is the percentage of (monthly) sales that those cancelled transactions represent? Note: Result are unconditional estimates. Hospitality sector includes accommodation and food services. Sources - World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percentage share of cancelled sales in total monthly sales: by sector 28 Only 10% of Firms Cancelled Orders Because of Labor Shortages, Leading to Steeper Sales Declines Question: In the last 30 days (before this interview), did this company/enterprise have to cancel any sale orders because there were not enough workers because they were displaced? Cancelled sales order due to insufficient workers: % of firms Change in sales by sale orders cancelled due insufficient workers Note: These are unconditional estimates. Sources - World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Impact on Employment Employment Declined by 20% since June 2021, particularly in Hospitality and manufacturing Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS. These are unconditional estimates Percent change in employment: by Sector 31 Estimates was computed from the following questions: (1) How many paid workers (full - time and part - time) did this company/enterprise have in June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise)? and (2) How many paid workers (full - time and part - time) does this company/enterprise currently have? Only 20% of workers left due to gang violence - related displacement or relocation Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Proportion of female employees that left due to relocation or displacement: by size 32 Question: Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), what proportion of those former employees left this company/enterprise because they relocated or were displaced due to gangs/gang violence and/or insecurity? Proportion of male employees that left due to relocation or displacement: by size Impact on Investment Investments declined by 25% in 2024 compared to 2021, particularly in the retail and wholesale sector at 34% Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS. These are unconditional estimates Percent change in investments: by Sector 34 Estimates computed from the following questions: (1) In 2021, how much did this company/enterprise invest in purchase of fixed assets for the firm (fixed assets include: new or used machinery, equipment, software, vehicles); (2) In 2024, How much did this company/enterprise invest in purchase of fixed assets for the firm (fixed assets include: new or used machinery, equipment, software, vehicles). Firms anticipate to invest an average of 8.4 million HTG (~US$64,000) in the next 12 months with the lowest among micro firms Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS. These are unconditional estimates Expected future investments (in millions HTG): by Size 35 Question: Looking ahead to the next 12 months, what is the approximate value of investment that you anticipate you will make? Trade and Global Value Chains Since the start of the gang violence and insecurity in June 2021, only 8% of firms exported directly Question : Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), did this company/enterprise make direct exports (i . e . sold products or services abroad without going through an intermediary)? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percent of firms that sold abroad in since June 2021: by sector Around 25% of these exporters reported disruptions in logistics due to the violence and insecurity. Question : Since end of 2021 , were your exports affected by disruption in logistics and transport because of gang violence? Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Exports affected by disruptions in logistics by size: Percent of firms Questions : LHS : Since 2021 did this company/enterprise source inputs or materials from abroad directly or indirectly (through a local trader)? RHS : Since the end of 2021 , did the company/enterprise’s imported intermediate inputs and raw materials change? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percent of firms that sourced their intermediate inputs from abroad Change in imported intermediate inputs and raw material: Percent of firms About 89% of Import - Dependent Firms Reduced or Eliminated Foreign Inputs Since June 2021 Utility disruption Power outages affected 61% of firms, particularly ICT and professional services sectors (71%) Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS. The results are unconditional estimates. Percent of firms that experienced power outages: by sector 41 Question: In the last 30 days (before this interview), did this company/enterprise experience power outages? Over 50% of firms experienced insufficient internet connectivity for business operations, particularly in ICT/Professional services sectors 42 Percent of firms that experienced insufficient internet connection by sector Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Question: In the last 30 days (before this interview), did this company/enterprise experience insufficient internet connection for business purposes? Financial channels Financial liquidity not a major concern. Both internal and external finance available to firms could meet their financial obligations for more than 5 months, especially for medium - sized firms Estimate was constructed from 2 questions . ( 1 ) As of today, for how many weeks could this establishment continue paying all operating costs and payments (such as payroll, suppliers, taxes or loan repayment) only with immediately available cash reserves (cash on hand and money in bank accounts)? ( 2 ) For how many additional weeks this establishment could continue paying all operating costs and payments (such as payroll, suppliers, taxes or loan repayment) relying on external sources of finance that you are certain or close to certain to have access to? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Av. number of weeks firm can pay for its operating costs using internal and external finance available: by size 44 Equity financing is the main source of external finance available to enterprises Question : What are the external sources of financing used by this company/enterprise since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise)? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS External Source of financing: Percent of firms 45 23% of firms need adjustments in their credit or loan repayment terms, and among these, 58% successfully restructured their debt especially those in hospitality sector Question : LHS : Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), has this company/enterprise needed any adjustments in credit or loan repayment terms and/or schedule? RHS : Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), has this company/enterprise been able to restructure their debts / loans with creditors? Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percent of firms that needed adjustments in credit and loan repayment terms 46 Restructured debts with creditors: Percent of firms Over 1 in 4 businesses are either in arrears or expects to be in arrears in the next 6 months. This is worse in the hospitality sector (1 in 3 firms) and small and medium sized businesses (approximately 1 in 3 firms). This estimates is computed from 2 questions . ( 1 ) Is this company/enterprise into arrears or had to delay its payments since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise)? ( 2 ) Is it expected that this establishment will fall in arrears in any of its outstanding liabilities in the next 6 months? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS In arrears or expects to fall in arrears in next 6 months. Percent of firms 47 By Sector By Size Around 6 in every 10 businesses surveyed have difficulties accessing finance, especially firms in the manufacturing sector (68%) Question : Does this company/enterprise currently face any difficulties in accessing finance? Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Difficulties in accessing finance by sector: Percent of firms 48 The main difficulties with accessing finance include high repayment risks, high interest rates and not having guarantee or enough collateral Question : What are the main difficulties this establishment currently faces in accessing finance? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Main difficulties with accessing finance: Percent of firms 49 Security and Protection 64% of firms reported increased crime in their communes Question : To the best of your knowledge, has the level of crime in your commune? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Level of crime in a firm’s commune: Percent of firms 51 One in four firms reported ransom payments by businesses in their commune. Question : To the best of your knowledge, since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), has any company/enterprise or individual in your commune paid for any ransom to release individual(s)? Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percent of businesses that firms in their commune paid ransom: by sector 52 16% of firms paid bribes for security protection, especially in the hospitality sector Question : Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), has this company/enterprise paid any bribes for security protection? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percent of firms that paid bribes for security protection: by sector 53 Since June 2021, 55% of firms made investments Question : Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), has your company/enterprise made any investments? Source: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percent of firms that have made investments by sector 54 .. Of firms making investments, 20% invested in private security and/or insurance Question : Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), has your company/enterprise made any investments? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Investments in fixed assets: Percent of firms 55 94% of investing firms purchased security equipment (cameras, monitoring systems, access controls), while 50% hired private security personnel. Question : Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), has your company/enterprise made the following private security investments Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Type of private security investment: Percent of firms 56 Policie s Only 3 percent of firms received public support – though 6.5 out of 719 firms is not statistically significant Question : Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), has this company/enterprise received any support from new or existing government programs, or international and domestic organizations’ programs? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Policy support received: Percent of firms 15 Only 3 percent of firms received public support Question : Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), has this company/enterprise received any support from new or existing government programs, or international and domestic organizations’ programs? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Policy support received: Percent of firms 58 Only 10% of Firms Report Receiving Support from the National Government Question : Where did the support come from? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Source of policy support: Percent of firms 59 Grants Accounted for Half of the Support Question : Did any of these measures involve any of the following : Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Type of support received: Percent of firms 60 About 70% of Firms Unaware of Support Programs Question : Which of the following options best describe the reason why this company/enterprise did not receive any national or local government, international or domestic organization support measures issued in response to the gang violence and insecurity since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise)? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Reasons for not receiving support: Percent of firms 61 Top Business Support Needs: New Credit Access (60%) and Security Insurance (33%). Question : What type of support programs either from the government or international organizations would be more important for your business(es) today? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Policy support needs of businesses: Percent of firms 62 Adjustment mechanisms 36% of Operating Firms Changed Primary Products, Especially in Manufacturing Question: Did the product or service representing the largest share of this company/enterprise's sales change during the last 6 months? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Change in products representing largest sales share: Percent of firms 64 Businesses primarily changed operations to ensure immediate safety and address violence - driven market demand shifts Question : Which of the following were the main reasons driving the changes this company/enterprise introduced? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS 65 Rationale for adopting these changes: Percent of firms Violence Drove 56% of Firms to Digital Platforms, Yet Only 20% of Sales Digital, Lowest in Hospitality Question : Has this company/enterprise started using or increased the use of internet, online social media, specialized apps, digital platforms, or remote work since January of 2021 ? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS 66 Adoption of digital platforms: Percent of firms Percent share of sales using digital platforms by sector Over 40% of businesses modified marketing and customer relations through new technologies in response to violence Question : In response to gangs/gang violence (since January of 2021 ) has this company/enterprise modified any of these business functions through new technology and processes : Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS 67 Business functions modified through digital technology: Percent of firms Firms face digital adoption barriers: 33% miss opportunities, others lack financing or certainty Question : What is the main reason why this company/enterprise has not modified any of its business functions or its use of digital technologies? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS 68 Reasons for not adopting digital technologies: Percent of firms 74% of firms adapted to violence by innovating products/services and expanding markets through new clients and delivery strategies Note : These estimates were constructed from the question : Since January of 2021 has this company/enterprise implemented some of the following . A firm has innovation on its product or services if any of the following is true : ( 1 ) Introduced new products or services, ( 2 ) Improved the quality of existing products or services, and ( 3 ) Improved the packaging or branding of products or services . A firm has embarked on market expansion if ( 1 ) Started selling to new clients, OR ( 2 ) Adopted strategies to continue delivering its products or services in face of violence and insecurity Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Product or service innovation: Percent of firms Market expansion: Percent of firms Outline • Introduction • Descriptive analysis of respondents • Damages, losses and current operating status • Impact on sales • Impact on employment • Impact on investments • Trade and GVC • Utility Disruption • Financial channels • Security and Protection • Public Policy Support • Adjustment Mechanisms • Conclusions 70 Additional slides 71 Micro firms and “Others” sector were overrepresented in the sample Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Others sector include several sectors such as construction and utilities, Admin, support, transport and storage and other se rvi ces, and other not explicitly mentioned in the questionnaire. This includes car rentals, beauty salons, crafting, event planning etc. Percent of firms: by size 72 Percent of firms: by sector Other services and ICT/Professional services sectors were overrepresented in the sample Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percent of firms: by subsectors: 73 Majority of businesses surveyed are maturing firms and fully domesti owned Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percent of firms: Age Percent of firms: by Foreign ownership Most of the surveyed enterprises are in the metropolitan area of Port - au - Prince and are legally registered Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS 75 Percent of firms: by Legal Registration Percent of firms: by Current location Despite the reported damages and losses due to violence and insecurity, 99 percent of surveyed businesses are open which may be due to self - selection into the survey Question: What is the current status of this establishment? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Operating status: Percent of firms 76 While only 9% of these workers left because they accepted the Biden’s parole program Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS. Large firms (100+ workers) were excluded as there are only 3 observations 77 Question: Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), what proportion of those former employees left because they were accepted in the Biden Parole Program? Percent that left due to acceptance of parole programs: by size On average, 4 workers per firm are no longer employed by the firm since June 2021, this number is highest for medium - sized businesses Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS. Note: Large firms (100+ workers) were excluded as there are only 3 observations Average number of workers no longer employed: by size 78 Question: LHS: Since June 2021 (assassination of President Jovenel Moise), how many workers are no longer employed at this company/enterprise? However, shortage in water supply seems to be less of an issue compared to power outages, as around 14 percent of businesses reported facing water supply shortages 79 Percent of firms experiencing insufficient water supply: by sector Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Question: In the last 30 days (before this interview), did this company/enterprise experience insufficient water supply for production? Around 22 percent of enterprises sales in 2024 was devoted to investments in fixed assets such as machinery, equipment etc, while 6 percent was invested in private security or business insurance Question : Estimates were computed from the questions ( 1 ) What percentage of your company/enterprise's sales in 2024 was invested in the purchase of fixed assets (machinery, equipment, etc . )? ( 2 ) What percentage of your company/enterprise's sales in 2024 was invested in private security and/or business insurance? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Percent of enterprise sales used in investments: by investment type 80 Most firms in the sample (96%) were located in the metropolitan area of Port - au - Prince prior to the violence and insecurity, and most of these firms (93%) have not relocated outside of Port - au - Prince since the crisis Question : In response to the gang violence and/or insecurity, has your company/enterprise partially or fully relocated to a different department outside of the metropolitan area of Port - au - Prince or a different country? Sources: World Bank’s staff calculations based on BPS Firms located in Port - au - Prince before the crisis: Percent of firms 81 Relocation outside Port - au - Prince: Percent of firms