Risk Bulletin: Observatory of Violence and Resilience in Haiti - Issue 3
Summary — Analysis of Haiti's escalating gang violence and the first anniversary of the Viv Ansanm coalition, examining their growing territorial control and political ambitions. The report highlights challenges faced by international security missions and Haiti's Transitional Presidential Council in addressing the crisis.
Key Findings
- Viv Ansanm gang coalition now controls 85% of Port-au-Prince and is seeking political recognition by transforming into a political party.
- Only 1,000 of the planned 2,500 personnel have been deployed for the Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support mission, limiting operational effectiveness.
- Up to 60% of eligible voters may be unable to participate in November 2025 elections due to gang control in Artibonite and West departments.
- Poor coordination between international forces and Haitian National Police undermines security operations and territorial control efforts.
- Gang tactics have shifted from indiscriminate violence to strategic territorial expansion and economic control through extortion.
Full Description
This risk bulletin analyzes the deteriorating security situation in Haiti one year after the formation of the Viv Ansanm gang coalition. The report examines how gangs have evolved from perpetrators of violence to strategic power brokers, now controlling 85% of Port-au-Prince and seeking political recognition. The Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support mission, with only 1,000 of the planned 2,500 personnel deployed, faces significant operational challenges and poor coordination with Haitian police.
The Transitional Presidential Council struggles to establish political legitimacy amid worsening security conditions. Plans for presidential elections in November 2025 are threatened by gang control, with potentially only 8 of 10 departments able to participate, excluding up to 60% of eligible voters. The report highlights the strategic shift in gang tactics, including their recent attack on Kenscoff, demonstrating territorial expansion toward Port-au-Prince's financial hub.
Viv Ansanm's transformation into a political party presents a critical dilemma for Haiti's governance. While political integration might incentivize gangs to step down, it could also formalize violent power structures. The report emphasizes the need for transparent institutional policies for demobilizing criminal groups rather than informal political dealings.
The analysis underscores the urgent need for coordinated international response, including expanded security missions, comprehensive police reforms, and long-term institutional development strategies to address both immediate security threats and root causes of Haiti's criminal crisis.