(2024-04) Haiti Macro Poverty Outlook
Summary — World Bank Spring 2024 Macro Poverty Outlook for Haiti: political crisis and gang violence drive a fourth straight year of contraction (real GDP -1.9 percent in FY23, projected -1.8 percent in FY24), with inflation decelerating from 44.2 percent but poverty rising above 64 percent at the $3.65 line.
Key Findings
- Fourth consecutive year of negative growth: real GDP fell 1.9 percent (market prices) in FY23 and is projected at -1.8 percent in FY24, with agriculture (over 40 percent of the labor force) contracting 5.6 percent.
- The textile sector, the largest formal private employer, lost about 26,000 of its 56,000 jobs as two large operations closed, driving workers into poverty.
- The $3.65-per-day poverty rate reached an estimated 63 percent in FY23 and is projected above 64 percent in FY24 as per-capita GDP falls 3.0 percent.
- Inflation was 44.2 percent in FY23 and is projected to ease to 27 percent in FY24 and 20 percent in FY25 as monetary policy tightens.
- The fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.3 percent of GDP in FY23 (from 3.2 percent in FY22) and is projected at 1.4 percent in FY24, but BRH monetary financing still exceeded statutory limits.
- Remittances stayed strong at 18.9 percent of GDP while the current account deficit widened to 3.4 percent of GDP and the gourde depreciated 13.7 percent.
Full Description
This Spring 2024 edition of the World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook reports that Haiti's economy contracted again in FY23 (real GDP -1.9 percent at market prices, -3.6 percent at factor prices) as heightened insecurity affected all sectors, with agriculture (over 40 percent of the labor force) falling 5.6 percent and services down 2.9 percent. The textile sector, the largest formal private employer, lost about 26,000 of its 56,000 jobs as two large operations closed, pushing many households into poverty; the FY23 poverty rate reached an estimated 63 percent at $3.65 per day. Inflation remained high at 44.2 percent in FY23 but is decelerating as monetary policy tightens and global price pressures ease, while the fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.3 percent of GDP from 3.2 percent in FY22 on lower energy subsidies and capital spending, though BRH monetary financing still exceeded statutory limits. Remittances stayed strong at 18.9 percent of GDP and consumption remained relatively buoyant, but the current account deficit widened to 3.4 percent of GDP and the gourde depreciated 13.7 percent in FY23. The outlook projects a further contraction of 1.8 percent in FY24 and per-capita GDP declining 3.0 percent, lifting poverty above 64 percent, before a modest recovery to 1.9 percent growth in FY25 and 2.0 percent in FY26. Inflation is expected to ease to 27 percent in FY24 and 20 percent in FY25, and the fiscal deficit to narrow to 1.4 percent of GDP in FY24 and near 1.0 percent over the medium term, but the report stresses large downside risks tied to insecurity, monetary financing, and natural-disaster vulnerability.
Notes
World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook - Haiti country brief, Spring 2024 (April 2024) edition. Part of the semiannual MPO series.